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Objective: To determine the association between race/ethnicity and COVID-19 outcomes in individuals with systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE).Methods: Individuals with SLE from the United States with data entered into the COVID-19 Global Rheumatology Alliance (GRA) registry between 24 March 2020 and 27 August 2021 were included. Variables included age, sex, race and ethnicity (White, Black, Hispanic, other), comorbidities, disease activity, pandemic time period, glucocorticoid dose, antimalarials, and immunosuppressive drug use. The ordinal outcome categories were: not hospitalized, hospitalized with no oxygenation, hospitalized with any ventilation or oxygenation, and death. We constructed ordinal logistic regression models evaluating the relationship between race/ethnicity and COVID-19 severity, adjusting for possible confounders.Results: We included 523 patients; 486 (90.7%) were female and the mean age was 46.6 (SD: 14.0) years. Three hundred and fifty-eight (74.6%) patients were not hospitalized; 40 (8.3%) patients were hospitalized without oxygen, 64 (13.3%) patients were hospitalized with any oxygenation and 18 (3.8%) died. In a multivariable model, Black [OR=2.73 (1.36-5.53)] and Hispanic [OR=2.76 (1.34-5.69)] individuals had higher odds of more severe outcomes than White individuals. Conclusions: Black and Hispanic individuals with SLE experienced more severe COVID-19 outcomes, which is consistent with findings in the US general population. These results likely reflect socioeconomic and health disparities and suggest that more aggressive efforts are needed to prevent and treat infection in this population.

To characterize the epidemiological trends and mortality of cutaneous lupus erythematosus (CLE) between 1976 and 2018 in Olmsted County, Minnesota.In this retrospective population-based cohort study, all incident and prevalent CLE cases among adult residents in Olmsted County, Minnesota, between January 1, 1976, and December 31, 2018, were identified and categorized by subtype through medical record review using the resources of the Rochester Epidemiology Project.The overall incidence rate of CLE between 1976 and 2018 was 3.9 (95% CI, 3.4 to 4.5) per 100,000. The incidence of CLE was relatively stable, with no major trend across sexes or age groups. The age- and sex-adjusted prevalence of CLE was 108.9 per 100,000 on January 1, 2015. Mortality in CLE patients was similar to that of the general population, with a standardized mortality ratio of 1.23 (95% CI, 0.88 to 1.66) with no observed trends in mortality over time.In the past 4 decades, the incidence of CLE remained stable. Patients with CLE have mortality comparable to that of the general population.

Rheumatoid arthritis has been associated with severe COVID-19, but few studies have investigated how phenotypes of rheumatoid arthritis affect these associations. We aimed to investigate the associations between rheumatoid arthritis and phenotypes of interstitial lung disease, serostatus, and bone erosions with COVID-19 severity.We did a retrospective, comparative, multicentre cohort study at two large health-care systems (Mayo Clinic [19 hospitals and affiliated outpatient centres] and Mass General Brigham [14 hospitals and affiliated outpatient centres]) in the USA. Consecutive patients with rheumatoid arthritis meeting the 2010 American College of Rheumatology/European League Against Rheumatism classification criteria and who had COVID-19 between March 1, 2020, and June 6, 2021, were matched 1:5 on age, sex, and calendar date with patients without rheumatoid arthritis (comparators). Data were received from electronic health records from Mayo Clinic and Mass General Brigham. We examined subgroups of patients with rheumatoid arthritis by phenotypic features: rheumatoid arthritis-associated interstitial lung disease, seropositivity (for anti-cyclic citrullinated peptide, rheumatoid factor, or both), and bone erosions. Severe COVID-19 was a composite of hospitalisation or death. We used Cox regression to estimate hazard ratios (HR) for severe COVID-19, comparing rheumatoid arthritis and subgroups to the comparator group.We identified 582 patients with rheumatoid arthritis and 2875 matched comparators, all of whom had COVID-19 within the study dates. The mean age of those with rheumatoid arthritis was 62 [SD 14] years, 421 (72%) of 582 were women and 161 (28%) were men, 457 (79%) were White, 65 (11%) were Hispanic or Latino, and 41 (7%) were Black. Among patients with rheumatoid arthritis, 50 (9%) of 582 had interstitial lung disease, 388 (68%) of 568 were seropositive, and 159 (27%) of 582 had bone erosions. Severe COVID-19 occurred in 126 (22%) of 582 patients with rheumatoid arthritis versus 363 (13%) 2875 in the comparator group. Patients with rheumatoid arthritis had an HR of 1·75 (95% CI 1·45-2·10) for severe COVID-19 versus the comparator group. Patients with rheumatoid arthritis-associated interstitial lung disease had an HR of 2·50 (1·66-3·77) versus the comparator group for severe COVID-19. The risk for severe COVID-19 was also higher in patients with rheumatoid arthritis who were seropositive (HR 1·97 [95% CI 1·58-2·46]) or had erosive disease (1·93 [1·41-2·63]) than for those in the comparator group.Patients with rheumatoid arthritis have an increased risk of severe COVID-19 across phenotypic subgroups, especially among patients with interstitial lung disease. These findings suggest that rheumatoid arthritis with interstitial lung disease, or its treatment, might be a substantial contributor to severe COVID-19 outcomes for patients with rheumatoid arthritis.None.

OBJECTIVE To characterize the incidence and prevalence of childhood onset systemic lupus erythematosus (cSLE), and to estimate the proportion of patients who are diagnosed with SLE during childhood. METHODS A cohort of patients with incident cSLE in 1976 to 2018 from a US 8-county region were identified based on comprehensive medical record review. All cases met the European League Against Rheumatism (EULAR)/American College of Rheumatology (ACR) or ACR 97 criteria at or before age 18. Incidence rates were estimated using Poisson methods. We estimated the cSLE point prevalence for 1/1/2015. Results were sex/age-adjusted to the US 2000 population. Among all the SLE patients living in the 8-county region in 1/1/2015, the proportion of patients diagnosed at ≤18 years was estimated. RESULTS A total of 13 children were diagnosed with cSLE during the study period (EULAR/ACR definition, mean age at diagnosis 15.1 years; 85% female, 69% White). cSLE overall adjusted incidence rate was 0.7 (95% CI, 0.2-1.1) per 100,000 children. Incidence rate in girls was 1.2 (95% CI, 0.5-1.9) per 100,000, while in boys it was 0.2 (95% CI, 0.0-0.5) per 100,000. Adjusted prevalence of cSLE was 1.1 (95% CI,0.0-3.1) per 100,000 children. The proportion of patients with SLE diagnosed as children was 9% (95% CI, 6-13%). CONCLUSIONS In this population-based study, both the incidence and prevalence rates of cSLE were ~ 1 per 100,000 children. One in ten adults with SLE were diagnosed in childhood. More studies are needed to further characterize the epidemiology of cSLE in minorities.

ObjectiveThere is little information about the epidemiology and factors associated with opioid therapy in systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE). We aimed to assess the prevalence of opioid therapy and explore factors associated with long-term opioid therapy (LTOT) in patients with SLE.MethodsPatients with SLE were matched with controls without SLE in a population-based cohort on January 1, 2015. We captured demographics, manifestations of SLE, comorbidities (ie, fibromyalgia, mood disorders, osteoarthritis, chronic low back pain [CLBP], chronic kidney disease (CKD), avascular necrosis, osteoporosis, fragility fractures, and cancer), and the Area Deprivation Index (ADI). Opioid prescription data were used to assess the prevalence of LTOT, defined as contiguous prescriptions (gaps of < 30 days between prescriptions) and receiving opioid therapy for ≥ 90 days or ≥ 10 prescriptions before the index date.ResultsA total of 465 patients with SLE and 465 controls without SLE were included. In total, 13% of patients with SLE and 3% of controls without SLE were receiving opioid therapy (P< 0.001), and 11% of patients with SLE were on LTOT vs 1% of controls without SLE. Among patients with SLE, acute pericarditis (odds ratio [OR] 3.92, 95% CI 1.78-8.66), fibromyalgia (OR 7.78, 95% CI 3.89-15.55), fragility fractures (OR 3.72, 95% CI 1.25-11.07), CLBP (OR 4.00, 95% CI 2.13-7.51), and mood disorders (OR 2.76, 95% CI 1.47-5.16) were associated with LTOT. We did not find an association between opioid therapy and ADI.ConclusionPatients with SLE are more likely to receive LTOT than controls. Among patients with SLE, LTOT was associated with pericarditis and several comorbidities. However, LTOT was not associated with CKD despite the limited pain control options among these patients.

The aim of this study was to determine inpatient health care utilization in an incident cohort of patients with systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE) compared with the general population.This was a population-based cohort study in the upper Midwest, United States. We included patients fulfilling the European League Against Rheumatism/American College of Rheumatology SLE classification criteria between 1995 and 2018. They were 1:1 age-, sex-, county-matched with individuals without SLE. All hospital admissions and emergency department (ED) visits were electronically retrieved for 1995-2020. Rates for hospital admission, length of stay, readmission, ED visits, and discharge destination were compared between groups.Three hundred forty-one patients with SLE and 341 comparators without SLE were included (mean age, 48.6 years at diagnosis; 79.2% female). Rates of hospitalization for patients with SLE and comparators were 29.8 and 9.9 per 100 person-years, respectively. These differences were present across sexes and age groups. Hospitalization rates were higher in patients with SLE after diagnosis and remained higher than comparators for the first 15 years of the disease. Patients with SLE were more likely than comparators to visit the ED (hazard ratio, 2.71; 95% confidence interval, 2.05-3.59). Readmission rates (32% vs. 21%, p = 0.017) were higher in patients with SLE. Length of stay and discharge destination were similar between both groups.Patients with SLE were more likely to be hospitalized and to visit the ED than individuals without SLE, highlighting important inpatient care needs. Increased hospitalization rates were observed in both male and female patients and all age groups.

There is paucity of population-based studies investigating the epidemiology of lupus nephritis (LN) in the US and long-term secular trends of the disease and its outcomes. We aimed to examine the epidemiology of LN in a well-defined eight-county region in the US.Patients with incident LN between 1976 and 2018 (1976-2009 Olmsted County, 2010-2018 eight-county region) in Minnesota were identified. Age- and sex-specific incidence rates and point prevalence for four decades, adjusted to the projected 2000 US population, were reported. Standardized mortality ratios (SMR), survival rates, and time to end-stage renal disease (ESRD) were estimated.There were 72 patients with incident LN between 1976-2018. Mean age at diagnosis was 38.4 years (SD 16.24), 76% were female, and 69% non-Hispanic White. Average annual LN incidence between 1976 and 2018 was 1 per 100,000 population (95%CI 0.8-1.3) and highest in the 30-39 age group. Between 1976-1989 and 2000-2018 periods, overall incidence of LN increased from 0.7 to 1.3 per 100,000, but this was not statistically significant. Estimated LN prevalence increased from 16.8 in 1985 to 21.2 per 100,000 in 2015. LN had an SMR of 6.33 (95% CI 3.81-9.89) with no improvement in mortality gap in the last four decades. At 10 years, survival was 70%, and 13% had ESRD.The incidence and prevalence of LN in this area increased in the last four decades. LN patients have poor outcomes with high rates of ESRD and mortality rates six times that of the general population. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Published by Elsevier Ltd., Background: Differences in the distribution of individual-level clinical risk factors across regions do not fully explain the observed global disparities in COVID-19 outcomes. We aimed to investigate the associations between environmental and societal factors and country-level variations in mortality attributed to COVID-19 among people with rheumatic disease globally. Methods: In this observational study, we derived individual-level data on adults (aged 18-99 years) with rheumatic disease and a confirmed status of their highest COVID-19 severity level from the COVID-19 Global Rheumatology Alliance (GRA) registry, collected between March 12, 2020, and Aug 27, 2021. Environmental and societal factors were obtained from publicly available sources. The primary endpoint was mortality attributed to COVID-19. We used a multivariable logistic regression to evaluate independent associations between environmental and societal factors and death, after controlling for individual-level risk factors. We used a series of nested mixed-effects models to establish whether environmental and societal factors sufficiently explained country-level variations in death. Findings: 14 044 patients from 23 countries were included in the analyses. 10 178 (72·5%) individuals were female and 3866 (27·5%) were male, with a mean age of 54·4 years (SD 15·6). Air pollution (odds ratio 1·10 per 10 μg/m3 [95% CI 1·01-1·17]; p=0·0105), proportion of the population aged 65 years or older (1·19 per 1% increase [1·10-1·30]; p, MAG is supported by the National Institute of Arthritis and Musculoskeletal and Skin Diseases (grant numbers K01 AR070585 and K24 AR074534 [JY]). KDW is supported by the Department of Veterans Affairs and the Rheumatology Research Foundation Scientist Development award. JAS is supported by the National Institute of Arthritis and Musculoskeletal and Skin Diseases (grant numbers K23 AR069688, R03 AR075886, L30 AR066953, P30 AR070253, and P30 AR072577), the Rheumatology Research Foundation (K Supplement Award and R Bridge Award), the Brigham Research Institute, and the R. Bruce and Joan M. Mickey Research Scholar Fund. NJP is supported by the National Institute of Arthritis and Musculoskeletal and Skin Diseases (T32-AR-007258). AD-G is supported by grants from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention and the Rheumatology Research Foundation. RH was supported by the Justus-Liebig University Giessen Clinician Scientist Program in Biomedical Research to work on this registry. JY is supported by grants from the National Institutes of Health (K24 AR074534 and P30 AR070155).

Objective: Some patients with rheumatic diseases might be at higher risk for coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS). We aimed to develop a prediction model for COVID-19 ARDS in this population and to create a simple risk score calculator for use in clinical settings. Methods: Data were derived from the COVID-19 Global Rheumatology Alliance Registry from March 24, 2020, to May 12, 2021. Seven machine learning classifiers were trained on ARDS outcomes using 83 variables obtained at COVID-19 diagnosis. Predictive performance was assessed in a US test set and was validated in patients from four countries with independent registries using area under the curve (AUC), accuracy, sensitivity, and specificity. A simple risk score calculator was developed using a regression model incorporating the most influential predictors from the best performing classifier. Results: The study included 8633 patients from 74 countries, of whom 523 (6%) had ARDS. Gradient boosting had the highest mean AUC (0.78; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.67-0.88) and was considered the top performing classifier. Ten predictors were identified as key risk factors and were included in a regression model. The regression model that predicted ARDS with 71% (95% CI: 61%-83%) sensitivity in the test set, and with sensitivities ranging from 61% to 80% in countries with independent registries, was used to develop the risk score calculator. Conclusion: We were able to predict ARDS with good sensitivity using information readily available at COVID-19 diagnosis. The proposed risk score calculator has the potential to guide risk stratification for treatments, such as monoclonal antibodies, that have potential to reduce COVID-19 disease progression.

Measles is a viral illness that poses a potentially fatal threat to health all over the world, especially for children. Due to the increase in measles outbreaks in the last few years, and the ever-growing popularity of anti-vaccine groups, it needs to be determined whether or not vaccine refusal is ethical, as it is an important issue that can have an effect on parental decision-making. A brief review is presented on the Measles Mumps Rubella (MMR) vaccine and recent outbreaks, with special attention to the role of anti-vaccine movements. Diverse bioethical perspectives are discussed to answer this issue. Informed consent is advised for all settings and mandatory vaccination is suggested for high risk children and vulnerable groups, based on the bioethical analysis.

AimTo determine characteristics associated with more severe outcomes in a global registry of people with systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE) and COVID-19.MethodsPeople with SLE and COVID-19 reported in the COVID-19 Global Rheumatology Alliance registry from March 2020 to June 2021 were included. The ordinal outcome was defined as: (1) not hospitalised, (2) hospitalised with no oxygenation, (3) hospitalised with any ventilation or oxygenation and (4) death. A multivariable ordinal logistic regression model was constructed to assess the relationship between COVID-19 severity and demographic characteristics, comorbidities, medications and disease activity.ResultsA total of 1606 people with SLE were included. In the multivariable model, older age (OR 1.03, 95% CI 1.02 to 1.04), male sex (1.50, 1.01 to 2.23), prednisone dose (1–5 mg/day 1.86, 1.20 to 2.66, 6–9 mg/day 2.47, 1.24 to 4.86 and ≥10 mg/day 1.95, 1.27 to 2.99), no current treatment (1.80, 1.17 to 2.75), comorbidities (eg, kidney disease 3.51, 2.42 to 5.09, cardiovascular disease/hypertension 1.69, 1.25 to 2.29) and moderate or high SLE disease activity (vs remission; 1.61, 1.02 to 2.54 and 3.94, 2.11 to 7.34, respectively) were associated with more severe outcomes. In age-adjusted and sex-adjusted models, mycophenolate, rituximab and cyclophosphamide were associated with worse outcomes compared with hydroxychloroquine; outcomes were more favourable with methotrexate and belimumab.ConclusionsMore severe COVID-19 outcomes in individuals with SLE are largely driven by demographic factors, comorbidities and untreated or active SLE. Patients using glucocorticoids also experienced more severe outcomes.

ObjectiveTo describe coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) and pregnancy outcomes in patients with rheumatic disease who were pregnant at the time of infection.MethodsSince March 2020, the COVID-19 Global Rheumatology Alliance has collected cases of patients with rheumatic disease with COVID-19. We report details of pregnant women at the time of COVID-19 infection, including obstetric details separately ascertained from providers.ResultsWe report on 39 patients, including 22 with obstetric detail available. The mean and median age was 33 years, range 24–45 years. Rheumatic disease diagnoses included rheumatoid arthritis (n = 9), systemic lupus erythematosus (n = 9), psoriatic arthritis/other inflammatory arthritides (n = 8), and antiphospholipid syndrome (n = 6). Most had a term birth (16/22), with 3 preterm births, 1 termination, and 1 miscarriage; 1 woman had yet to deliver at the time of report. One-quarter (n = 10/39) of pregnant women were hospitalized following COVID-19 diagnosis. Two of 39 (5%) required supplemental oxygen (both hospitalized); no patients died. The majority did not receive specific medication treatment for their COVID-19 (n = 32/39, 82%), and 7 patients received some combination of antimalarials, colchicine, anti–interleukin 1β, azithromycin, glucocorticoids, and lopinavir/ritonavir.ConclusionWomen with rheumatic diseases who were pregnant at the time of COVID-19 had favorable outcomes. These data have limitations due to the small size and methodology; however, they provide cautious optimism for pregnancy outcomes for women with rheumatic disease particularly in comparison to the increased risk of poor outcomes that have been reported in other series of pregnant women with COVID-19.

ObjectiveTo investigate baseline use of biologic or targeted synthetic (b/ts) disease-modifying antirheumatic drugs (DMARDs) and COVID-19 outcomes in rheumatoid arthritis (RA).MethodsWe analysed the COVID-19 Global Rheumatology Alliance physician registry (from 24 March 2020 to 12 April 2021). We investigated b/tsDMARD use for RA at the clinical onset of COVID-19 (baseline): abatacept (ABA), rituximab (RTX), Janus kinase inhibitors (JAKi), interleukin 6 inhibitors (IL-6i) or tumour necrosis factor inhibitors (TNFi, reference group). The ordinal COVID-19 severity outcome was (1) no hospitalisation, (2) hospitalisation without oxygen, (3) hospitalisation with oxygen/ventilation or (4) death. We used ordinal logistic regression to estimate the OR (odds of being one level higher on the ordinal outcome) for each drug class compared with TNFi, adjusting for potential baseline confounders.ResultsOf 2869 people with RA (mean age 56.7 years, 80.8% female) on b/tsDMARD at the onset of COVID-19, there were 237 on ABA, 364 on RTX, 317 on IL-6i, 563 on JAKi and 1388 on TNFi. Overall, 613 (21%) were hospitalised and 157 (5.5%) died. RTX (OR 4.15, 95% CI 3.16 to 5.44) and JAKi (OR 2.06, 95% CI 1.60 to 2.65) were each associated with worse COVID-19 severity compared with TNFi. There were no associations between ABA or IL6i and COVID-19 severity.ConclusionsPeople with RA treated with RTX or JAKi had worse COVID-19 severity than those on TNFi. The strong association of RTX and JAKi use with poor COVID-19 outcomes highlights prioritisation of risk mitigation strategies for these people.

Key Points Question Is receipt of tumor necrosis factor (TNF) inhibitor monotherapy at the time of COVID-19 diagnosis associated with adverse COVID-19 outcomes compared with other treatment regimens among patients with immune-mediated inflammatory diseases (IMIDs)? Findings In this cohort study of 6077 patients with IMIDs and COVID-19, TNF inhibitors in combination with azathioprine/6-mercaptopurine therapy, methotrexate monotherapy, azathioprine/6-mercaptopurine monotherapy, or Janus kinase inhibitor monotherapy were each associated with significantly higher odds of hospitalization or death compared with TNF inhibitor monotherapy. Meaning This study’s findings support the continued use of TNF inhibitor monotherapy among individuals with IMIDs during the pandemic., Importance Although tumor necrosis factor (TNF) inhibitors are widely prescribed globally because of their ability to ameliorate shared immune pathways across immune-mediated inflammatory diseases (IMIDs), the impact of COVID-19 among individuals with IMIDs who are receiving TNF inhibitors remains insufficiently understood. Objective To examine the association between the receipt of TNF inhibitor monotherapy and the risk of COVID-19–associated hospitalization or death compared with other commonly prescribed immunomodulatory treatment regimens among adult patients with IMIDs. Design, Setting, and Participants This cohort study was a pooled analysis of data from 3 international COVID-19 registries comprising individuals with rheumatic diseases, inflammatory bowel disease, and psoriasis from March 12, 2020, to February 1, 2021. Clinicians directly reported COVID-19 outcomes as well as demographic and clinical characteristics of individuals with IMIDs and confirmed or suspected COVID-19 using online data entry portals. Adults (age ≥18 years) with a diagnosis of inflammatory arthritis, inflammatory bowel disease, or psoriasis were included. Exposures Treatment exposure categories included TNF inhibitor monotherapy (reference treatment), TNF inhibitors in combination with methotrexate therapy, TNF inhibitors in combination with azathioprine/6-mercaptopurine therapy, methotrexate monotherapy, azathioprine/6-mercaptopurine monotherapy, and Janus kinase (Jak) inhibitor monotherapy. Main Outcomes and Measures The main outcome was COVID-19–associated hospitalization or death. Registry-level analyses and a pooled analysis of data across the 3 registries were conducted using multilevel multivariable logistic regression models, adjusting for demographic and clinical characteristics and accounting for country, calendar month, and registry-level correlations. Results A total of 6077 patients from 74 countries were included in the analyses; of those, 3215 individuals (52.9%) were from Europe, 3563 individuals (58.6%) were female, and the mean (SD) age was 48.8 (16.5) years. The most common IMID diagnoses were rheumatoid arthritis (2146 patients [35.3%]) and Crohn disease (1537 patients [25.3%]). A total of 1297 patients (21.3%) were hospitalized, and 189 patients (3.1%) died. In the pooled analysis, compared with patients who received TNF inhibitor monotherapy, higher odds of hospitalization or death were observed among those who received a TNF inhibitor in combination with azathioprine/6-mercaptopurine therapy (odds ratio [OR], 1.74; 95% CI, 1.17-2.58; P = .006), azathioprine/6-mercaptopurine monotherapy (OR, 1.84; 95% CI, 1.30-2.61; P = .001), methotrexate monotherapy (OR, 2.00; 95% CI, 1.57-2.56; P, This cohort study uses data from 3 international registries to examine the association between the receipt of tumor necrosis factor monotherapy and the risk of COVID-19–associated hospitalization or death among adult patients with immune-mediated inflammatory diseases.

Background:An increased risk of severe COVID-19 outcomes may be seen in patients with autoimmune diseases on moderate to high daily doses of glucocorticoids, as well as in those with comorbidities. However, specific information about COVID-19 outcomes in SLE is scarce.Objectives:To determine the characteristics associated with severe COVID-19 outcomes in a multi-national cross-sectional registry of COVID-19 patients with SLE.Methods:SLE adult patients from a physician-reported registry of the COVID-19 GRA were studied. Variables collected at COVID-19 diagnosis included age, sex, race/ethnicity, region, comorbidities, disease activity, time period of COVID-19 diagnosis, glucocorticoid (GC) dose, and immunomodulatory therapy. Immunomodulatory therapy was categorized as: antimalarials only, no SLE therapy, traditional immunosuppressive (IS) drug monotherapy, biologics/targeted synthetic IS drug monotherapy, and biologic and traditional IS drug combination therapy. We used an ordinal COVID-19 severity outcome defined as: not hospitalized/hospitalized without supplementary oxygen; hospitalized with non-invasive ventilation; hospitalized with mechanical ventilation/extracorporeal membrane oxygenation; and death. An ordinal logistic regression model was constructed to assess the association between demographic characteristics, comorbidities, medications, disease activity and COVID-19 severity. This assumed that the relationship between each pair of outcome groups is of the same direction and magnitude.Results:Of 1069 SLE patients included, 1047 (89.6%) were female, with a mean age of 44.5 (SD: 14.1) years. Patient outcomes included 815 (78.8%) not hospitalized/hospitalized without supplementary oxygen; 116 (11.2) hospitalized with non-invasive ventilation, 25 (2.4%) hospitalized with mechanical ventilation/extracorporeal membrane oxygenation and 78 (7.5%) died. In a multivariate model (n=804), increased age [OR=1.03 (1.01, 1.04)], male sex [OR =1.93 (1.21, 3.08)], COVID-19 diagnosis between June 2020 and January 2021 (OR =1.87 (1.17, 3.00)), no IS drug use [OR =2.29 (1.34, 3.91)], chronic renal disease [OR =2.34 (1.48, 3.70)], cardiovascular disease [OR =1.93 (1.34, 3.91)] and moderate/high disease activity [OR =2.24 (1.46, 3.43)] were associated with more severe COVID-19 outcomes. Compared with no use of GC, patients using GC had a higher odds of poor outcome: 0-5 mg/d, OR =1.98 (1.33, 2.96); 5-10 mg/d, OR =2.88 (1.27, 6.56); >10 mg/d, OR =2.01 (1.26, 3.21) (Table 1).Table 1.Characteristics associated with more severe COVID-19 outcomes in SLE. (N=804)OR (95% CI)Age, years1.03 (1.01, 1.04)Sex, Male1.93 (1.21, 3.08)Race/Ethnicity, Non-White vs White1.47 (0.87, 2.50)RegionEuropeRef.North America0.67 (0.29, 1.54)South America0.67 (0.29, 1.54)Other1.93 (0.85, 4.39)Season, June 16th 2020-January 8th 2021 vs January-June 15th 20201.87 (1.17, 3.00)Glucocorticoids0 mg/dayRef.0-5 mg/day1.98 (1.33, 2.96)5-10 mg/day2.88 (1.27, 6.56)=>10 mg/day2.01 (1.26, 3.21)Medication CategoryAntimalarial onlyRef.No IS drugs2.29 (1.34, 3.91)Traditional IS drugs as monotherapy1.17 (0.77, 1.77)b/ts IS drugs as monotherapy1.00 (0.37, 2.71)Combination of traditional and b/ts IS1.00 (0.55, 1.82)Comorbidity BurdenNumber of Comorbidities (excluding renal and cardiovascular disease)1.39 (0.97, 1.99)Chronic renal disease2.34 (1.48, 3.70)Cardiovascular disease1.93 (1.34, 3.91)Disease Activity, Moderate/ high vs Remission/ low 2.24 (1.46, 3.43)IS: immunosuppressive. b/ts: biologics/targeted syntheticsConclusion:Increased age, male sex, glucocorticoid use, chronic renal disease, cardiovascular disease and moderate/high disease activity at time of COVID-19 diagnosis were associated with more severe COVID-19 outcomes in SLE. Potential limitations include possible selection bias (physician reporting), the cross-sectional nature of the data, and the assumptions underlying the outcomes modelling.Acknowledgements:The views expressed here are those of the authors and participating members of the COVID-19 Global Rheumatology Alliance and do not necessarily represent the views of the ACR, EULAR) the UK National Health Service, the National Institute for Health Research (NIHR), or the UK Department of Health, or any other organization.Disclosure of Interests:Manuel F. Ugarte-Gil Grant/research support from: Pfizer, Janssen, Graciela S Alarcon: None declared, Andrea Seet: None declared, Zara Izadi: None declared, Cristina Reategui Sokolova: None declared, Ann E Clarke Consultant of: AstraZeneca, BristolMyersSquibb, GlaxoSmithKline, Exagen Diagnostics, Leanna Wise: None declared, Guillermo Pons-Estel: None declared, Maria Jose Santos: None declared, Sasha Bernatsky: None declared, Lauren Mathias: None declared, Nathan Lim: None declared, Jeffrey Sparks Consultant of: Bristol-Myers Squibb, Gilead, Inova, Janssen, and Optum unrelated to this work., Grant/research support from: Amgen and Bristol-Myers Squibb, Zachary Wallace Consultant of: Viela Bio and MedPace, Grant/research support from: Bristol-Myers Squibb and Principia/Sanofi, Kimme Hyrich Speakers bureau: Abbvie, Grant/research support from: MS, UCB, and Pfizer, Anja Strangfeld Speakers bureau: AbbVie, MSD, Roche, BMS, Pfizer, Grant/research support from: AbbVie, BMS, Celltrion, Fresenius Kabi, Lilly, Mylan, Hexal, MSD, Pfizer, Roche, Samsung, Sanofi-Aventis, and UCB, Laure Gossec Consultant of: Abbvie, Biogen, Celgene, Janssen, Lilly, Novartis, Pfizer, Sanofi-Aventis, UCB, Grant/research support from: Lilly, Mylan, Pfizer, Loreto Carmona: None declared, Elsa Mateus Grant/research support from: Pfizer, Abbvie, Novartis, Janssen-Cilag, Lilly Portugal, Sanofi, Grünenthal S.A., MSD, Celgene, Medac, Pharmakern, GAfPA, Saskia Lawson-Tovey: None declared, Laura Trupin: None declared, Stephanie Rush: None declared, Gabriela Schmajuk: None declared, Patti Katz: None declared, Lindsay Jacobsohn: None declared, Samar Al Emadi: None declared, Emily Gilbert: None declared, Ali Duarte-Garcia: None declared, Maria Valenzuela-Almada: None declared, Tiffany Hsu: None declared, Kristin D’Silva: None declared, Naomi Serling-Boyd: None declared, Philippe Dieudé Consultant of: Boerhinger Ingelheim, Bristol-Myers Squibb, Lilly, Sanofi, Pfizer, Chugai, Roche, Janssen unrelated to this work, Grant/research support from: Bristol-Myers Squibb, Chugaii, Pfizer, unrelated to this work, Elena Nikiphorou: None declared, Vanessa Kronzer: None declared, Namrata Singh: None declared, Beth Wallace: None declared, Akpabio Akpabio: None declared, Ranjeny Thomas: None declared, Suleman Bhana Consultant of: AbbVie, Horizon, Novartis, and Pfizer (all

Background:Acute Respiratory Distress Syndrome (ARDS) is a life-threatening complication of COVID-19 and has been reported in approximately one-third of hospitalized patients with COVID-191. Risk factors associated with the development of ARDS include older age and diabetes2. However, little is known about factors associated with ARDS in the setting of COVID-19, in patients with rheumatic disease or those receiving immunosuppressive medications. Prediction algorithms using traditional regression methods perform poorly with rare outcomes, often yielding high specificity but very low sensitivity. Machine learning algorithms optimized for rare events are an alternative approach with potentially improved sensitivity for rare events, such as ARDS in COVID-19 among patients with rheumatic disease.Objectives:We aimed to develop a prediction model for ARDS in people with COVID-19 and pre-existing rheumatic disease using a series of machine learning algorithms and to identify risk factors associated with ARDS in this population.Methods:We used data from the COVID-19 Global Rheumatology Alliance (GRA) Registry from March 24 to Nov 1, 2020. ARDS diagnosis was indicated by the reporting clinician. Five machine learning algorithms optimized for rare events predicted ARDS using 42 variables covering patient demographics, rheumatic disease diagnoses, medications used at the time of COVID-19 diagnosis, and comorbidities. Model performance was assessed using accuracy, area under curve, sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value, and negative predictive value. Adjusted odds ratios corresponding to the 10 most influential predictors from the best performing model were derived using hierarchical multivariate mixed-effects logistic regression that accounted for within-country correlations.Results:A total of 5,931 COVID-19 cases from 67 countries were included in the analysis. Mean (SD) age was 54.9 (16.0) years, 4,152 (70.0%) were female, and 2,399 (40.5%) were hospitalized. ARDS was reported in 388 (6.5% of total and 15.6% of hospitalized) cases. Statistically significant differences in the risk of ARDS were observed by demographics, diagnoses, medications, and comorbidities using unadjusted univariate comparisons (data not shown). Gradient boosting machine (GBM) had the highest sensitivity (0.81) and was considered the best performing model (Table 1). Hypertension, interstitial lung disease, kidney disease, diabetes, older age, glucocorticoids, and anti-CD20 monoclonal antibodies were associated with the development of ARDS while tumor necrosis factor inhibitors were associated with a protective effect (Figure 1).Table 1.Performance of machine learning algorithms.GBMSVMGLMNETNNETRFAccuracy0.790.680.660.660.67AUC0.750.700.740.580.74Sensitivity0.810.680.650.680.67Specificity0.490.600.730.480.68PPV0.960.960.970.950.97NPV0.160.120.130.090.13GBM: Gradient Boosting Machine, SVM: Support vector machines, GLMNET: Lasso and Elastic-Net Regularized Generalized Linear Models, NNET: Neural Networks, RF: Random Forest. AUC: Area Under Curve; PPV: Positive Predictive Value; NPV: Negative Predictive Value.Conclusion:In this global cohort of patients with rheumatic disease, a machine learning model, GBM, predicted the onset of ARDS with 81% sensitivity using baseline information obtained at the time of COVID-19 diagnosis. These results identify patients who may be at higher risk of severe COVID-19 outcomes. Further studies are necessary to validate the proposed prediction model in external cohorts and to evaluate its clinical utility. Disclaimer: The views expressed here are those of the authors and participating members of the COVID-19 Global Rheumatology Alliance, and do not necessarily represent the views of the ACR, NIH, (UK) NHS, NIHR, or the department of Health.References:[1]Tzotzos SJ, Fischer B, Fischer H, Zeitlinger M. 2020;24(1):516.[2]Wu C, Chen X, Cai Y, et al. JAMA Intern Med. 2020;180(7):934-943.Acknowledgements:The COVID-19 Global Rheumatology Alliance.Disclosure of Interests:Zara Izadi: None declared, Milena Gianfrancesco: None declared, Kimme Hyrich Speakers bureau: Abbvie and grant income from BMS, UCB, and Pfizer, all unrelated to this study., Anja Strangfeld Speakers bureau: AbbVie, MSD, Roche, BMS, Pfizer, outside the submitted work., Grant/research support from: A consortium of 13 companies (among them AbbVie, BMS, Celltrion, Fresenius Kabi, Lilly, Mylan, Hexal, MSD, Pfizer, Roche, Samsung, Sanofi-Aventis, and UCB) supporting the German RABBIT register., Laure Gossec Consultant of: Abbvie, Biogen, Celgene, Janssen, Lilly, Novartis, Pfizer, Sanofi-Aventis, UCB., Grant/research support from: Lilly, Mylan, Pfizer, all unrelated to this study., Loreto Carmona Consultant of: Loreto Carmona’s institute works by contract for laboratories among other institutions, such as Abbvie Spain, Eisai, Gebro Pharma, Merck Sharp & Dohme España, S.A., Novartis, Farmaceutica, Pfizer, Roche Farma, Sanofi Aventis, Astellas Pharma, Actelion Pharmaceuticals España, Grünenthal GmbH, and UCB Pharma., Elsa Mateus Grant/research support from: LPCDR received grants from Abbvie, Novartis, Janssen-Cilag, Lilly Portugal, Sanofi, Grünenthal S.A., MSD, Celgene, Medac, Pharmakern, GAfPA and Pfizer., Saskia Lawson-Tovey: None declared, Laura Trupin: None declared, Stephanie Rush: None declared, Gabriela Schmajuk: None declared, Lindsay Jacobsohn: None declared, Patti Katz: None declared, Samar Al Emadi: None declared, Leanna Wise: None declared, Emily Gilbert: None declared, Maria Valenzuela-Almada: None declared, Ali Duarte-Garcia: None declared, Jeffrey Sparks Consultant of: Bristol-Myers Squibb, Gilead, Inova, Janssen, and Optum unrelated to this work., Grant/research support from: Amgen and Bristol-Myers Squibb., Tiffany Hsu: None declared, Kristin D’Silva: None declared, Naomi Serling-Boyd: None declared, Suleman Bhana Employee of: Suleman Bhana reports non-branded marketing campaigns for Novartis (

Background Invasive aspergillosis (IA) is a leading cause of morbidity and mortality in immunocompromised hosts. Triazole resistance in Aspergillus fumigatus is emerging globally. We performed antifungal susceptibility testing (AST) in Aspergillus isolates from Mexico and evaluated risk factors associated with 6 week mortality, including the MICs. Methods Aspergillus isolates from clinical samples were collected in a tertiary care center from 2014 to 2018. Species-level identification and broth microdilution following the CLSI M38 method were performed. MICs were interpreted according to epidemiological cutoff values. PCR and cyp51A gene sequencing were performed in A. fumigatus isolates with voriconazole (VRC) MIC >1 µg/mL. Data from the medical record were obtained to classify patients according to the MSG/EORTC criteria. The relationship between the MICs and 6-week mortality was described. Multivariate analysis of factors associated with six week mortality was performed. Results AST was performed on 85 Aspergillus isolates: 60/85 from patients with IA, 15/85 from patients with Aspergillus colonization, 2 patients with Aspergilloma, 1 with chronic otitis media and 1 with endophtalmitis. Information from 6 patients was unavailable. VRC MIC > 1 µg/mL was found in 3/38 (7.8%) A. fumigatus, from two patients with IA. Both had a TR34/L98H mutation in the cyp51A gene. Amphotericin B (AmB) MICs ≥ 2 were found in 16/49 (32%) A. fumigatus, 10/15 (66%) A. flavus and 1/14 (8%) A. niger. Forty-one patients with IA were treated: 29/41 (71%) with VRC or posaconazole, 7/41 (17%) with AmB and 5 with combination therapy. Overall, 6-week mortality was 30/49 (61.2%) among patients with IA; 2/2 (100%) when VRC MIC >1 µg/mL and 12/19 (63%) when AmB > 2 µg/mL, of which only 4 patients received initial treatment with AmB. Age older than 65 years (OR 11.8; 95% CI 1.14–123) and hepatic failure (OR 7.9; 95% CI 1.22–50.9) were independently associated with 6-week mortality in multivariate analysis. Conclusion We found a VRC MIC >1 µg/mL prevalence of 7.8% among A. fumigatus and a high prevalence of AmB MIC ≥ 2 among clinical isolates of Aspergillus in Mexico. Elevated mortality was seen in IA among older patients with hepatic failure. Larger epidemiological studies are warranted. Disclosures All authors: No reported disclosures.

Background Invasive aspergillosis is an important cause of life-threatening infection in immunocompromised patients. The objective was to describe the epidemiology, clinical characteristics, and outcome of patients with invasive aspergillosis (IA) in a tertiary care center in Mexico. Methods A laboratory-based survey was done to identify patients with positive Aspergillus culture or galactomannan from 2014 to 2018. The medical records were reviewed to include patients with proven and probable IA, according to the EORTC criteria. Descriptive analysis of clinical characteristics and risk factors for 6-week mortality was made through X2, T-test or Mann–Whitney test. A multivariate logistic regression model including variables with a P-value of Results 240 cases of IA were identified: 193 (80%) probable, 27 (11%) proven, and 20 (8.3%) not meeting the EORTC criteria but considered infection. 53% were male, median age was 44 years (IQR 28–58), 78 (32.5%) had acute leukemia (AL), 42 (17.5%) hematological neoplasia, 29 (12%) hematopoietic stem-cell transplant (HSCT), 25 (10.4%) solid-organ transplant and 44 (18.3%) autoimmune diseases, 17.5% patients with AL underwent induction remission chemotherapy of which 31% received antifungal prophylaxis. Among patients with IA, 183 (82%) had a positive galactomannan and 109 (45%) had a culture with Aspergillus. Eleven had > 1 species: 55/120 (46%) were A. fumigatus, 18 (15%) A. niger and 18 (15%) A. flavus. Pulmonary disease occurred in 214 (89%). 212 patients (88%) received antifungal treatment with a median duration of 42 days (IQR 20–42). 129 (61%) received voriconazole (VRC), 20 (8.3%) Amphotericin B and 20(8.3%) were randomized to a posaconazole vs. VRC trial. Six-week mortality was 35% (n = 85). Lymphopenia (OR 3.6; 95% CI 1.4–9.0), liver failure (OR 3.3; 95% CI 1.7–6.5) and older age (OR 1.03; 95% CI 1.01–1.05) (marginally) were independently associated with increased 6-week mortality. Conclusion 240 patients with IA were identified in a 5-year period in a tertiary care center. Most had hematological neoplasias and low prevalence of antimold prophylaxis due to economical reasons. Six-week mortality was 35%, nonsurvivors had liver failure and lymphopenia more often. Increased awareness to prevent IA is needed. Disclosures All authors: No reported disclosures.