Search

Background & Aims: Model for End-Stage Liver Disease (MELD) score better predicts mortality in alcohol-associated hepatitis (AH) but could underestimate severity in women and malnourished patients. Using a global cohort, we assessed the ability of the MELD 3.0 score to predict short-term mortality in AH. Methods: This was a retrospective cohort study of patients admitted to hospital with AH from 2009 to 2019. The main outcome was all-cause 30-day mortality. We compared the AUC using DeLong's method and also performed a time-dependent AUC with competing risks analysis. Results: A total of 2,124 patients were included from 28 centres from 10 countries on three continents (median age 47.2 ± 11.2 years, 29.9% women, 71.3% with underlying cirrhosis). The median MELD 3.0 score at admission was 25 (20–33), with an estimated survival of 73.7% at 30 days. The MELD 3.0 score had a better performance in predicting 30-day mortality (AUC:0.761, 95%CI:0.732–0.791) compared with MELD sodium (MELD-Na; AUC: 0.744, 95% CI: 0.713–0.775; p = 0.042) and Maddrey’s discriminant function (mDF) (AUC: 0.724, 95% CI: 0.691–0.757; p = 0.013). However, MELD 3.0 did not perform better than traditional MELD (AUC: 0.753, 95% CI: 0.723–0.783; p = 0.300) and Age-Bilirubin-International Normalised Ratio-Creatinine (ABIC) (AUC:0.757, 95% CI: 0.727–0.788; p = 0.765). These results were consistent in competing-risk analysis, where MELD 3.0 (AUC: 0.757, 95% CI: 0.724–0.790) predicted better 30-day mortality compared with MELD-Na (AUC: 0.739, 95% CI: 0.708–0.770; p = 0.028) and mDF (AUC:0.717, 95% CI: 0.687–0.748; p = 0.042). The MELD 3.0 score was significantly better in predicting renal replacement therapy requirements during admission compared with the other scores (AUC: 0.844, 95% CI: 0.805–0.883). Conclusions: MELD 3.0 demonstrated better performance compared with MELD-Na and mDF in predicting 30-day and 90-day mortality, and was the best predictor of renal replacement therapy requirements during admission for AH. However, further prospective studies are needed to validate its extensive use in AH. Impact and implications: Severe AH has high short-term mortality. The establishment of treatments and liver transplantation depends on mortality prediction. We evaluated the performance of the new MELD 3.0 score to predict short-term mortality in AH in a large global cohort. MELD 3.0 performed better in predicting 30- and 90-day mortality compared with MELD-Na and mDF, but was similar to MELD and ABIC scores. MELD 3.0 was the best predictor of renal replacement therapy requirements. Thus, further prospective studies are needed to support the wide use of MELD 3.0 in AH.

Introduction and Objectives: Alcohol-associated hepatitis (AH) is a severe entity associated with high mortality. Corticosteroids might be used in cases with severe disease and several dynamic models can predict mortality and response to corticosteroids in AH patients. However, there is no consensus on the best of them. This study aimed to evaluate dynamic models to predict response to corticosteroid treatment based on short-term mortality in patients with severe AH based on a worldwide cohort. Materials and Methods: A retrospective cohort study of patients with severe AH (between 2009 – 2019). We included patients who received corticosteroid treatment and calculated the Lille model of day 4 (Lille-4), day 7 (Lille-7) (cut-off value ≥0.45), and the Trajectory of Serum Bilirubin (TSB)(cut-off value ≥0.8 of the ratio between bilirubin at admission and day 7) to predict mortality. We estimated up to 30-day survival using Kaplan-Meier curves, and we performed multivariable analyzes using Cox regression. Specifically, we constructed two models to compare Lille-4 vs. TSB and Lille-7 vs. TSB, adjusting by well-known clinical variables associated with higher mortality in AH (age, sex, and creatinine at admission). Results: 1,066 patients were included (30 centers, 10 countries), age 47.7 ± 10.9 years, 30% women. The MELD score on admission was 25 [21-30]. Responders were considered by Lille-4 49.1%, Lille-7 46.6%, and TSB 55.4%. In the first Cox regression, we observed that Lille-4 and TSB predicted 30-day mortality (HR 3.0, 95%CI: 1.7-5.1; p