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Context The health of coral reefs is declining rapidly across the world because of anthropogenic impacts. In the mega-diverse Coral Triangle, the consequences of chronic overfishing and human use are worst near coastal population centres. Aims The remote islands and reefs in the centre of the Banda Sea (Indonesia) remain largely unstudied, but their distance from populated areas could provide protection from fishing. Methods We conducted the first visual census surveys of coral-reef communities at the uninhabited Lucipara group in the Banda Sea. Key results Sites showed medium to high coral cover and fish assemblages with high biomass, including abundant large predatory species. All sites exceeded the fish biomass conservation target of 1150 kg ha−1 proposed by McClanahan et al. (2015), by a factor of ~2–10. Benthic cover explained >50% of variance in fish abundance and diversity, with submassive corals, Dendrophyllia spp., and bare rock as key predictors. Conclusions Our results suggested that Lucipara’s reefs are among the healthiest in Indonesia, likely owing to their remoteness. However, this remoteness might also hamper policing against destructive fishing practices, highlighting a conservation gap. Implications Lucipara’s reef communities should be protected in a time of global coral-reef declines.

Integrative and proactive conservation approaches are critical to the long-term persistence of biodiversity. Molecular data can provide important information on evolutionary processes necessary for conserving multiple levels of biodiversity (genes, populations, species, and ecosystems). However, molecular data are rarely used to guide spatial conservation decision-making. Here, we bridge the fields of molecular ecology (ME) and systematic conservation planning (SCP) (the 'why') to build a foundation for the inclusion of molecular data into spatial conservation planning tools (the 'how'), and provide a practical guide for implementing this integrative approach for both conservation planners and molecular ecologists. The proposed framework enhances interdisciplinary capacity, which is crucial to achieving the ambitious global conservation goals envisioned for the next decade.

Escalating climate impacts on coral reefs are increasingly expanding management goals beyond preserving biodiversity to also maintaining ecosystem functions. Morphological and ecological species traits can help assess changes within reef communities beyond taxonomic identities alone. However, our limited understanding of trait interactions between habitat-building corals and associated reef fishes and whether they are captured by current monitoring practices hampers management. Here, we apply co-inertia analyses to test whether trait assemblages in corals and fishes co-vary across different habitats and test whether different components of the reef fish community (fisheries vs. non-target species) display distinct relationships. We find that spatial co-variation across habitat types between coral and fish traits is strengthened by the addition of non-target fishes. Additionally, even in fisheries with diverse targets, non-target species make unique contributions to the overall trait structure and highlight the importance of considering monitoring protocols when drawing conclusions about traits and ecosystems.

Funding for this research was provided by a DTP Natural Environment Research Council Scholarship to JC, a NERC IRF (NE/M018458/1) to RS-G, a Ramon Areces Foundation Postdoctoral Fellowship to PC, and Winifred Violet Scott Estate funding to MB. Escalating climatic and anthropogenic pressures expose ecosystems worldwide to increasingly stochastic environments. Yet, our ability to forecast the responses of natural populations to this increased environmental stochasticity is impeded by a limited understanding of how exposure to stochastic environments shapes demographic resilience. Here, we test the association between local environmental stochasticity and the resilience attributes (e.g. resistance, recovery) of 2242 natural populations across 369 animal and plant species. Contrary to the assumption that past exposure to frequent environmental shifts confers a greater ability to cope with current and future global change, we illustrate how recent environmental stochasticity regimes from the past 50 years do not predict the inherent resistance or recovery potential of natural populations. Instead, demographic resilience is strongly predicted by the phylogenetic relatedness among species, with survival and developmental investments shaping their responses to environmental stochasticity. Accordingly, our findings suggest that demographic resilience is a consequence of evolutionary processes and/or deep-time environmental regimes, rather than recent-past experiences. Publisher PDF

Marine predators are globally threatened by anthropogenic stressors, but are key for ecosystem functioning. Their worsening conservation statuses indicate that current management is failing, requiring us to urgently reimagine their conservation needs to ensure their survival. Their life histories, threats, and resource needs are diverse. Consequently, spatial conservation areas targeting all species will overlook such heterogeneity, contributing to the problem. Here, we demonstrate that marine mammals, elasmobranchs and teleost fishes return drastically different spatial conservation priority areas, based on Marxan scenarios for 42 marine predator species in the Mediterranean Sea. None of the marine predators are sufficiently covered by the current marine protected area (MPA) system, with marine mammals being the least protected despite having the greatest designated MPA extent, highlighting disconnects between conservation goals and current management outcomes. To save marine predators, taxon specific ecological requirements and resulting spatial heterogeneity need to be accounted for in marine spatial planning.

Collecting fine-scale occurrence data for marine species across large spatial scales is logistically challenging, but is important to determine species distributions and for conservation planning. Inaccurate descriptions of species ranges could result in designating protected areas with inappropriate locations or boundaries. Optimising sampling strategies therefore is a priority for scaling up survey approaches using tools such as environmental DNA (eDNA) to capture species distributions. eDNA can detect diverse taxa simultaneously, but to date has rarely been applied across large spatial scales relevant for conservation planning. In a marine context, commercial vessels, such as ferries, could provide sampling platforms allowing access to under-sampled areas and repeatable sampling over time to track community changes. However, sample collection from commercial vessels could be biased and may not represent biological and environmental variability. Here, we evaluate whether sampling along Mediterranean ferry routes can yield unbiased biodiversity survey outcomes, based on perfect knowledge from a stacked species distribution model (SSDM) of marine megafauna. Simulations were carried out representing different sampling strategies (random vs systematic), frames (ferry routes vs unconstrained) and number of sampling points. SSDMs were remade from different sampling simulations and compared to the ‘perfect knowledge’ SSDM to quantify the bias associated with different sampling strategies. Ferry routes detected more species and were able to recover known patterns in species richness at smaller sample sizes better than unconstrained sampling points. However, to minimise potential bias, ferry routes should be chosen to cover the variability in species composition and its environmental predictors in the SSDMs. The workflow presented here can be used to design effective eDNA sampling strategies using commercial vessel routes globally. This approach has potential to provide a cost-effective method to access remote oceanic areas on a regular basis, and can recover meaningful data on spatiotemporal biodiversity patterns.

Climate change has become the greatest threat to the world's ecosystems. Locating and managing areas that contribute to the survival of key species under climate change is critical for the persistence of ecosystems in the future. Here, we identify 'Climate Priority' sites as coral reefs exposed to relatively low levels of climate stress that will be more likely to persist in the future. We present the first analysis of uncertainty in climate change scenarios and models, along with multiple objectives, in a marine spatial planning exercise and offer a comprehensive approach to incorporating uncertainty and trade-offs in any ecosystem. We first described each site using environmental characteristics that are associated with a higher chance of persistence (larval connectivity, hurricane influence, and acute and chronic temperature conditions in the past and the future). Future temperature increases were assessed using downscaled data under four different climate scenarios (SSP1 2.6, SSP2 4.5, SSP3 7.0 and SSP5 8.5) and 57 model runs. We then prioritized sites for intervention (conservation, improved management or restoration) using robust decision-making approaches that select sites that will have a benign climate under most climate scenarios and models. The modelling work is novel because it solves two important issues. (1) It considers trade-offs between multiple planning objectives explicitly through Pareto analyses and (2) It makes use of all the uncertainty around future climate change. Priority intervention sites identified by the model were verified and refined through local stakeholder engagement including assessments of local threats, ecological conditions and government priorities. The workflow is presented for the Insular Caribbean and Florida, and at the national level for Cuba, Jamaica, Dominican Republic and Haiti. Our approach allows managers to consider uncertainty and multiple objectives for climate-smart spatial management in coral reefs or any ecosystem across the globe.

Larval dispersal connectivity is typically integrated into spatial conservation decisions at regional or national scales, but implementing agencies struggle with translating these methods to local scales. We used larval dispersal connectivity at regional (hundreds of kilometers) and local (tens of kilometers) scales to aid in design of networks of no-take reserves in Southeast Sulawesi, Indonesia. We used Marxan with Connectivity informed by biophysical larval dispersal models and remotely sensed coral reef habitat data to design marine reserve networks for 4 commercially important reef species across the region. We complemented regional spatial prioritization with decision trees that combined network-based connectivity metrics and habitat quality to design reserve boundaries locally. Decision trees were used in consensus-based workshops with stakeholders to qualitatively assess site desirability, and Marxan was used to identify areas for subsequent network expansion. Priority areas for protection and expected benefits differed among species, with little overlap in reserve network solutions. Because reef quality varied considerably across reefs, we suggest reef degradation must inform the interpretation of larval dispersal patterns and the conservation benefits achievable from protecting reefs. Our methods can be readily applied by conservation practitioners, in this region and elsewhere, to integrate connectivity data across multiple spatial scales.Integración de la conectividad larval al proceso de toma de decisiones en la conservación marina en escalas espaciales Resumen Comúnmente se integra la conectividad de la dispersión larval a las decisiones de conservación espacial a escalas regionales o nacionales, pero las agencias de implementación luchan con la transferencia de estos métodos a las escalas locales. Usamos la conectividad de la dispersión larval a escalas regionales (cientos de kilómetros) y locales (decenas de kilómetros) para ayudar en el diseño de redes de reservas con protección total en Sulawesi Sudoriental, Indonesia. Usamos Marxan con la conectividad guiada por los modelos biofísicos de dispersión larval y detectamos a distancia los datos de hábitat de los arrecifes de coral para diseñar redes de reservas marinas para cuatro especies de importancia comercial en la región. Complementamos la priorización espacial regional con árboles de decisión que combinaron medidas de conectividad basadas en las redes y la calidad del hábitat para diseñar localmente los límites de la reserva. Usamos los árboles de decisión con los actores en talleres basados en el consenso para evaluar cualitativamente la conveniencia del sitio. También usamos Marxan para identificar áreas para la expansión subsecuente de la red. Las áreas prioritarias para la protección y los beneficios esperados difirieron entre especies, con un traslape reducido en las soluciones de la red de reservas. Ya que la calidad del arrecife varió considerablemente entre los arrecifes, sugerimos que la degradación de estos debe orientar la interpretación de los patrones de dispersión larval y los beneficios de conservación alcanzables con la protección de los arrecifes. Los practicantes de la conservación pueden aplicar nuestros métodos inmediatamente, en esta región o en cualquier otra, para integrar los datos de conectividad en varias escalas espaciales.幼体扩散的连接度常常被纳入区域或国家尺度的空间保护决策中, 但保护执行机构在将这些方法转化到局部尺度时却经常遇到困难。本研究在区域(几百公里)和局部(几十公里)范围内, 利用幼体扩散连接度来帮助设计了印度尼西亚东南苏拉威西的禁捕保护区网络。我们在幼体扩散的生物物理学模型和珊瑚礁生境遥感数据的指导下, 利用Marxan软件的连接度方法, 为该地区四个具有商业价值的珊瑚礁物种设计了海洋保护区网络。接下来, 我们以结合基于网络的连接度指标与生境质量来设计局部保护区边界的决策树作为补充, 确定了该区域的空间优先保护地区。研究者在与利益相关者的共识研讨会中用决策树定性评估了位点的可取性, 并用Marxan软件确定了后续网络扩展的区域。不同物种间的优先保护区域和预期效益有所不同, 且在保护区网络解决方案中几乎没有重叠。由于不同珊瑚礁的质量差异很大, 我们建议在理解幼体扩散模式和珊瑚礁保护的预期效益时必须考虑珊瑚礁的退化。保护工作者可以将我们的方法很好地用于该地区及其他地区, 来整合多个空间尺度的连接度数据。【翻译:胡怡思;审校:聂永刚】.

Wallacea-the meeting point between the Asian and Australian fauna-is one of the world's largest centers of endemism. Twenty-three million years of complex geological history have given rise to a living laboratory for the study of evolution and biodiversity, highly vulnerable to anthropogenic pressures. In the present article, we review the historic and contemporary processes shaping Wallacea's biodiversity and explore ways to conserve its unique ecosystems. Although remoteness has spared many Wallacean islands from the severe overexploitation that characterizes many tropical regions, industrial-scale expansion of agriculture, mining, aquaculture and fisheries is damaging terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems, denuding endemics from communities, and threatening a long-term legacy of impoverished human populations. An impending biodiversity catastrophe demands collaborative actions to improve community-based management, minimize environmental impacts, monitor threatened species, and reduce wildlife trade. Securing a positive future for Wallacea's imperiled ecosystems requires a fundamental shift away from managing marine and terrestrial realms independently.

Aim: Intraspecific diversity is a significant component of adaptive potential, and thus, it is important to identify the evolutionary processes that have and will continue to shape the molecular diversity of natural populations. This study aims to untangle the possible drivers of intraspecific molecular diversity by testing whether patterns of historical climatic stability or contemporary range position correlate with molecular diversity.Location: South African coastline.Taxa: The cape urchin (Parechinus angulosus), common shore crab (Cyclograpsus punctatus) and granular limpet (Scutellastra granularis).Methods: Species distributions were hindcasted to the Last Glacial Maximum to assess the biogeography of the study species. Linear models were built to compare the relationships between historical climatic stability or contemporary distributional ranges with extant genetic (mtDNA) and genomic (SNP) diversity.Results: We found large differences in the historical ranges among species and time periods. Regions of higher habitat stability corresponded to regions of higher molecular diversity, but historical climatic variability was not a predictor of molecular diversity within linear models. Lower genetic diversity values, and higher genetic differentiation, were detected in edge populations, but this was not consistent across marker type or species.Main conclusions: Both historical and contemporary processes are potentially driving patterns of diversity, but a large portion of the variation in molecular diversity remains unexplained. Our findings suggest that marine species within cool-temperate bioregions in the Southern Hemisphere may have more complex biogeographic and evolutionary histories than terrestrial taxa and/or coastal species within northern, formerly glaciated regions.

AimDespite the awareness that climate change impacts are typically detrimental to tropical coral reefs, the effect of increasing environmental stress and variability on the population size structure of coral species remains poorly understood. This gap in knowledge limits our ability to effectively conserve coral reef ecosystems because size specific dynamics are rarely incorporated. Our aim is to quantify variation in the size structure of coral populations along a tropical-to-subtropical environmental gradient.Location20 coral populations along a latitudinal gradient on the east coast of Australia (∼23°S to 30°S).Time PeriodBetween 2010 and 2018.Major taxa studiedScleractinian corals.MethodsWe apply two methods to quantify the relationship between environmental covariates and coral population size structure along a latitudinal environmental gradient. First, we use linear regression with summary statistics, such as median size as response variables; a method frequently favoured by ecologists. The second method is compositional functional regression, a novel method using entire size-frequency distributions as response variables. We then predict coral population size structure with increasing environmental stress and variability.ResultsCompared to tropical reefs, we find fewer but larger coral colonies in marginal reefs, where environmental conditions are more variable and stressful for corals in the former. Our model predicts that coral populations may become gradually dominated by larger colonies (> 148 cm2) with increasing environmental stress.Main conclusionsWith increasing environmental stress and variability, we can expect shifts in coral population size structure towards more larger colonies. Fewer but bigger corals suggest low survival, slow growth, and poor recruitment. This finding is concerning for the future of coral reefs as it implies populations may have low recovery potential from disturbances. We highlight the importance and usefulness of continuously monitoring changes to population structure over large spatial scales.Data availabilityData is supplied in the supplementary information, or upon request. Once accepted for publication it will be made openly available on Dryad.

Sustainably managing fisheries requires regular and reliable evaluation of stock status. However, most multispecies reef fisheries around the globe tend to be data-poor and lack research and monitoring capacity (e.g., long-term fishery data), preventing the estimation of sustainable reference points against which stocks can be assessed. Here, combining fish biomass data for more than 2000 coral reefs with catch estimates from 99 jurisdictions, we estimate site-specific sustainable reference points for coral reef fisheries and use these to assess the status of coral reef fish stocks. We reveal that more than half of jurisdictions with available information have stocks of conservation concern, having failed at least one fisheries sustainability benchmark. We quantify the trade-offs between biodiversity, mean fish length, and ecosystem functions relative to key benchmarks and highlight the ecological benefits of increasing sustainability. Our approach yields multispecies sustainable reference points for coral reef fisheries using environmental conditions, a promising means for enhancing the sustainability of the world’s coral reef fisheries.TeaserA global assessment of the sustainability of multispecies reef fisheries indicates that more than half of jurisdictions have failed at least one of two key sustainability benchmarks.

Larval dispersal is an important component of marine reserve networks. Two conceptually different approaches to incorporate dispersal connectivity into spatial planning of these networks exist, and it is an open question as to when either is most appropriate. Candidate reserve sites can be selected individually based on local properties of connectivity or on a spatial dependency-based approach of selecting clusters of strongly connected habitat patches. The first acts on individual sites, whereas the second acts on linked pairs of sites. We used a combination of larval dispersal simulations representing different seascapes and case studies of biophysical larval dispersal models in the Coral Triangle region and the province of Southeast Sulawesi, Indonesia, to compare the performance of these 2 methods in the spatial planning software Marxan. We explored the reserve design performance implications of different dispersal distances and patterns based on the equilibrium settlement of larvae in protected and unprotected areas. We further assessed different assumptions about metapopulation contributions from unprotected areas, including the case of 100% depletion and more moderate scenarios. The spatial dependency method was suitable when dispersal was limited, a high proportion of the area of interest was substantially degraded, or the target amount of habitat protected was low. Conversely, when subpopulations were well connected, the 100% depletion was relaxed, or more habitat was protected, protecting individual sites with high scores in metrics of connectivity was a better strategy. Spatial dependency methods generally produced more spatially clustered solutions with more benefits inside than outside reserves compared with site-based methods. Therefore, spatial dependency methods potentially provide better results for ecological persistence objectives over enhancing fisheries objectives, and vice versa. Different spatial prioritization methods of using connectivity are appropriate for different contexts, depending on dispersal characteristics, unprotected area contributions, habitat protection targets, and specific management objectives. Comparación entre los métodos de priorización de la conservación espacial con sitio y la conectividad espacial basada en la dependencia.La dispersión larval es un componente importante de las redes de reservas marinas. Existen dos estrategias conceptualmente distintas para incorporar la conectividad de la dispersión en la planeación espacial de estas redes y es una pregunta abierta cuándo alguna de las dos es la más apropiada. Los sitios candidatos a reserva pueden ser seleccionados individualmente con base en las propiedades locales de la conectividad o en la estrategia espacial basada en la dependencia que consiste en seleccionar grupos de fragmentos de hábitat con un vínculo fuerte. La primera estrategia actúa sobre sitios individuales, mientras que la segunda actúa sobre pares de sitios vinculados. Usamos una combinación de simulaciones de dispersión larval que representaban a diferentes paisajes marinos y estudios de caso de modelos biofísicos de dispersión larval en la región del Triángulo de Coral y en la provincia de Sulawesi Sudoriental, Indonesia, para comparar el desempeño de estos dos métodos en el software de planeación espacial Marxan. Exploramos las implicaciones del desempeño del diseño de la reserva de diferentes distancias y patrones de dispersión basados en el establecimiento del equilibrio de larvas en las áreas protegidas y sin protección. Además, analizamos las suposiciones sobre las contribuciones metapoblacionales de las áreas sin protección, incluyendo el caso de la reducción al 100% y escenarios más moderados. El método de la dependencia espacial fue adecuado cuando la dispersión estuvo limitada, una proporción elevada del área de interés estaba sustancialmente degradada o era baja la cantidad meta de hábitat protegido. Al contrario, cuando las subpoblaciones estaban bien conectadas, la reducción al 100% estuvo relajada, o si una mayor parte del hábitat estaba protegido, la protección de los sitios individuales con altos puntajes en las medidas de conectividad fue una mejor estrategia. Los métodos de dependencia espacial generalmente produjeron soluciones con una agrupación más espacial y con más beneficios dentro que fuera de las reservas en comparación con los métodos basados sitios. Por lo tanto, los métodos de dependencia espacial tienen el potencial de proporcionar mejores resultados para los objetivos de persistencia ecológica por encima de los objetivos de mejora de las pesquerías, y viceversa. Los diferentes métodos de priorización espacial que usan la conectividad son apropiados para contextos diferentes, dependiendo de las características de dispersión, las contribuciones del área sin protección, las metas de protección del hábitat y los objetivos específicos del manejo.幼体扩散是海洋保护区网络的一个重要组成部分。有两种基于不同概念的方法可以将扩散连接度纳入保护区网络的空间规划中, 而它们的适用情境仍存有争议。这两种方法包括根据连接度的局部属性来独立地选择候选保护区, 以及用基于空间依赖性的方法选择一片紧密连接的栖息地斑块。前者作用于单个位点, 而后者作用于相连的一对位点。我们利用代表不同海洋景观的幼体扩散模拟和珊瑚三角区及印度尼西亚东南苏拉威西的幼体扩散生物物理模型的案例研究, 比较了这两种方法在空间规划软件Marxan中的表现。研究根据幼体在保护区和非保护区的平衡定殖情况, 探讨了不同扩散距离和模式对保护区设计效果的影响。我们进一步评估了对来自非保护区的集合种群贡献的不同假设, 包括100%枯竭和更适中的情况。空间依赖性方法适用于以下情况:扩散受到限制, 感兴趣的地区有很大一部分严重退化, 或者受保护的栖息地目标数量较低。相反, 当亚种群相互连接, 100%枯竭的假设被放宽, 或是更多栖息地得到保护时, 保护连接度指标得分高的单个位点则会成为较好的策略。与基于位点的方法相比, 空间依赖性方法通常会产生更多空间上聚集的解决方案, 且在保护区内比在保护区外有更多益处。因此, 空间依赖性方法可能为生态续存目标提供更好的结果, 而非有利于渔业目标, 反之亦然。根据扩散特征、未受保护地区的贡献、栖息地保护目标和具体的管理目标, 基于连接度的不同空间优先保护方法也适合于不同的情况。【翻译:胡怡思;审校:聂永刚】.

JC was awarded a Natural Environment Research Council (NERC) Doctoral Training Programme Scholarship. Grants were made by the British Ecological Society, UK; the Winifred Violet Scott Estate, Australia; and the European Union's Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme under the Marie Skłodowska‐Curie grant agreement TRIM‐DLV‐747102 to MB. ORCHIDS project funding from the University of the Ryukyus was made to JDR. Recruitment surveys were supported by JSPS KAKENHI grant no. 16K07527 to MN. RS‐G was supported by a NERC Independent Research Grant (no. NE/M018458/1). Predicting the viability of species exposed to increasing climatic stress requires an appreciation for the mechanisms underpinning the success or failure of marginal populations. Rather than traditional metrics of long-term population performance, here we illustrate that short-term (i.e. transient) demographic characteristics, including measures of resistance, recovery and compensation, are fundamental in the poleward range expansion of hard corals, facilitating the establishment of coral populations at higher latitudes. Through the annual census of subtropical and temperate Acropora spp. colonies in Japan between 2017 and 2019, we show how enhanced transient amplification (i.e. short-term increases in population growth following disturbance) supports the persistence of coral assemblages within more variable high-latitude environments. The transient dynamics of both the subtropical and temperate assemblages were strongly influenced by their corresponding recruitment patterns. However, we demonstrate that variation in colony survival and fragmentation patterns between the two assemblages determines their relative capacities for transient amplification. This latitudinal variation in the transient dynamics of Acropora spp. assemblages emphasizes that coral populations can possess the demographic plasticity necessary for exploiting more variable, marginal conditions. Publisher PDF

Funding: This work was supported by a NERC DTP scholarship to JC and a NERC Independent Research Fellowship (NE/M018458/1) to RS-G. Coral communities are threatened by an increasing plethora of abiotic and biotic disturbances. Preventing the ensuing loss of coral coverage and diversity calls for a mechanistic understanding of resilience across coral species and populations that is currently lacking in coral reef science. Assessments into the dynamics of coral populations typically focus on their long-term (i.e. asymptotic) characteristics, tacitly assuming stable environments in which populations can attain their long-term characteristics. Instead, we argue that greater focus is needed on investigating the transient (i.e. short-term) dynamics of coral populations to describe and predict their characteristics and trajectories within unstable environments. Applying transient demographic approaches to evaluating and forecasting the responses of coral populations to disturbance holds promise for expediting our capacity to predict and manage the resilience of coral populations, species, and communities. Publisher PDF

Ocean warming is increasing the incidence, scale, and severity of global-scale coral bleaching and mortality, culminating in the third global coral bleaching event that occurred during record marine heatwaves of 2014-2017. While local effects of these events have been widely reported, the global implications remain unknown. Analysis of 15,066 reef surveys during 2014-2017 revealed that 80% of surveyed reefs experienced significant coral bleaching and 35% experienced significant coral mortality. The global extent of significant coral bleaching and mortality was assessed by extrapolating results from reef surveys using comprehensive remote-sensing data of regional heat stress. This model predicted that 51% of the world’s coral reefs suffered significant bleaching and 15% significant mortality, surpassing damage from any prior global bleaching event. These observations demonstrate that global warming’s widespread damage to coral reefs is accelerating and underscores the threat anthropogenic climate change poses for the irreversible transformation of these essential ecosystems.

Tropicalization is rapidly restructuring subtropical marine communities. A key driver for tropicalization is changes in herbivory pressure that are linked with degrading ecosystem stability. Consequently, subtropical algal beds are being displaced by climate-mediated colonisation of coral communities. This process is thought to be aided by the elevated herbivory resulting from tropicalization, but the relative contribution to herbivory by different taxa is not fully understood. Evaluating herbivory pressure and its effect on coral cover and rugosity across a subtropical latitudinal gradient will help predict how these processes may change with further tropicalization and ocean warming. Herbivory pressure exerted by fishes and urchins across this subtropical latitudinal gradient remains unquantified. Using in-situ feeding observations, we quantify fish and urchin herbivory pressure at seven sites across non-accreting coral communities, and warmer accreting coral reefs in southern Japan. We then relate herbivory pressure to respective fish and urchin community structure and coral cover and rugosity. Urchin herbivory is greater on non-accreting coral communities than on true coral accreting reefs; a result which is reversed for fish herbivory. Overall, herbivory pressure is greater on accreting coral reefs than on coral non-accreting communities, but is dependent on reef characteristics as community structures differ more strongly among reefs than between regions. These factors are linked to coral cover and rugosity that differ between reefs, but not between climatic regions, further emphasising the influence of local factors on the benthic cover and the associated fish and urchin community, and thus herbivory pressure. Our findings provide a foundation for understanding how non-accreting coral communities may respond to ongoing tropicalization, given the fish and invertebrate herbivores they host.

Anthropocene coral reefs are faced with increasingly severe marine heatwaves and mass coral bleaching mortality events. The ensuing demographic changes to coral assemblages can have long-term impacts on reef community organisation. Thus, understanding the dynamics of subtropical scleractinian coral populations is essential to predict their recovery or extinction post-disturbance. Here we present a 10-yr demographic assessment of a subtropical endemic coral, Pocillopora aliciae (Schmidt-Roach et al. in Zootaxa 3626:576–582, 2013) from the Solitary Islands Marine Park, eastern Australia, paired with long-term temperature records. These coral populations are regularly affected by storms, undergo seasonal thermal variability, and are increasingly impacted by severe marine heatwaves. We examined the demographic processes governing the persistence of these populations using inference from size-frequency distributions based on log-transformed planar area measurements of 7196 coral colonies. Specifically, the size-frequency distribution mean, coefficient of variation, skewness, kurtosis, and coral density were applied to describe population dynamics. Generalised Linear Mixed Effects Models were used to determine temporal trends and test demographic responses to heat stress. Temporal variation in size-frequency distributions revealed various population processes, from recruitment pulses and cohort growth, to bleaching impacts and temperature dependencies. Sporadic recruitment pulses likely support population persistence, illustrated in 2010 by strong positively skewed size-frequency distributions and the highest density of juvenile corals measured during the study. Increasing mean colony size over the following 6 yr indicates further cohort growth of these recruits. Severe heat stress in 2016 resulted in mass bleaching mortality and a 51% decline in coral density. Moderate heat stress in the following years was associated with suppressed P. aliciae recruitment and a lack of early recovery, marked by an exponential decrease of juvenile density (i.e. recruitment) with increasing heat stress. Here, population reliance on sporadic recruitment and susceptibility to heat stress underpin the vulnerability of subtropical coral assemblages to climate change.

Climate-driven changes to environmental conditions are driving severe declines of coral reef ecosystems. Current climate vulnerability estimates commonly focus on ocean warming and typically overlook ecological responses or use broad proxies to represent responses, leading to management decisions based on incomplete views of coral reef futures. We explore four underdeveloped aspects of climate vulnerability assessments and make the following recommendations: (1) use climate projections based on changes in global warming as future scenarios in place of the more common emissions scenarios; (2) include available high-resolution projections for climate variables in addition to thermal stress; (3) combine projected climate stressors accounting for uncertainty in future outcomes; and (4) quantitatively assess historical and project future ecological sensitivity and adaptive capacity of corals to multiple stressors. We demonstrate how this framework can be used to reduce uncertainty in projected climate vulnerability and facilitate targeted investment in managing reefs most likely to endure climatic disturbances.

1. Urbanized coral reefs experience anthropogenic disturbances caused by coastal development, pollution, and nutrient runoff, resulting in turbid, marginal conditions in which only certain species can persist. Mortality effects are exacerbated by increasingly regular thermal stress events, leading to shifts towards novel communities dominated by habitat generalists and species with low structural complexity. 2. There is limited data on the turnover processes that occur due to this convergence of anthropogenic stressors, and how novel urban ecosystems are structured both at the community and functional levels. As such, it is unclear how they will respond to future disturbance events. 3. Here, we examine the patterns of coral reef community change and determine whether ecosystem functions provided by specialist species are lost post-disturbance. We present a comparison of community and functional trait-based changes for scleractinian coral genera and reef fish species assemblages subject to coastal development, coastal modification, and mass bleaching between two time periods, 1975–1976 and 2018, in Nakagusuku Bay, Okinawa, Japan. 4. We observed an increase in fish habitat generalists, a dominance shift from branching to massive/sub-massive corals and increasing site-based coral genera richness between years. Fish and coral communities significantly reassembled, but functional trait-based multivariate space remained constant, indicating a turnover of species with similar traits. A compression of coral habitat occurred, with shallow (8 m) coral genera shifting towards the mid-depths (5–8 m). 5. We show that although reef species assemblages altered post disturbance, new communities retained similar ecosystem functions. This result could be linked to the stressors experienced by urban reefs, which reflect those that will occur at an increasing frequency globally in the near future. Yet, even after shifts to disturbed communities, these fully functioning reef systems may maintain high conservation value.

Connectivity underpins the persistence of life; it needs to inform biodiversity conservation decisions. Yet, when prioritising conservation areas and developing actions, connectivity is not being operationalised in spatial planning. The challenge is the translation of flows associated with connectivity into conservation objectives that lead to actions. Connectivity is nebulous, it can be abstract and mean different things to different people, making it difficult to include in conservation problems. Here, we show how connectivity can be included in mathematically defining conservation planning objectives. We provide a path forward for linking connectivity to high-level conservation goals, such as increasing species' persistence. We propose ways to design spatial management areas that gain biodiversity benefit from connectivity.

Thermal refugia underpin climate-smart management of coral reefs, but whether current thermal refugia will remain so under future warming is uncertain. We use statistical downscaling to provide the highest resolution thermal stress projections (0.01°/1 km, >230,000 reef pixels) currently available for coral reefs and identify future refugia on locally manageable scales. Here, we show that climate change will overwhelm current local-scale refugia, with declines in global thermal refugia from 84% of global coral reef pixels in the present-day climate to 0.2% at 1.5°C, and 0% at 2.0°C of global warming. Local-scale oceanographic features such as upwelling and strong ocean currents only rarely provide future thermal refugia. We confirm that warming of 1.5°C relative to pre-industrial levels will be catastrophic for coral reefs. Focusing management efforts on thermal refugia may only be effective in the short-term. Promoting adaptation to higher temperatures and facilitating migration will instead be needed to secure coral reef survival.

Species that cannot adapt or keep pace with a changing climate are likely to need human intervention to shift to more suitable climates. While hundreds of articles mention using translocation as a climate-change adaptation tool, in practice, assisted migration as a conservation action remains rare, especially for animals. This is likely due to concern over introducing species to places where they may become invasive. However, there are other barriers to consider, such as time-frame mismatch, sociopolitical, knowledge and uncertainty barriers to conservationists adopting assisted migration as a go-to strategy. We recommend the following to advance assisted migration as a conservation tool: attempt assisted migrations at small scales, translocate species with little invasion risk, adopt robust monitoring protocols that trigger an active response, and promote political and public support.Importancia de las Reubicaciones de Especies bajo el Cambio Climático Acelerado Resumen Las especies que no pueden adaptarse o mantener el ritmo del cambio climático probablemente requieran de la intervención humana para mudarse a climas más adecuados. Mientras que cientos de artículos mencionan el uso de las reubicaciones como una herramienta de adaptación al cambio climático, en la práctica, la migración asistida todavía es rara como una acción de conservación, especialmente para animales. Lo anterior probablemente se debe a la preocupación que existe por la introducción de especies a sitios en los que podrían volverse invasoras. Sin embargo, existen otras barreras que deberían considerarse, como aquellas ocasionadas por el desfase en el marco temporal, cuestiones sociopolíticas, de conocimiento o de incertidumbre para los conservacionistas que adoptan a la migración asistida como la estrategia de cajón. Recomendamos lo siguiente para que la migración asistida avance como herramienta de conservación: intentar realizar migraciones asistidas a pequeñas escalas, reubicar especies con poco riesgo de invasión, adoptar protocolos de monitoreo robustos que generen una respuesta activa y promover el apoyo público y político.不能适应或跟上气候变化的物种可能需要人类干预以迁移到气候更适宜的地区。虽然已有数百篇文献提到利用辅助迁移作为物种适应气候变化的工具, 但在实践中, 这样的保护行动仍然很少, 特别是对动物来说。这可能是因为人们担心将物种引入新环境可能导致物种的入侵扩散。然而, 保护主义者采用辅助迁移作为首选策略还面临着其它阻碍, 如时限不匹配, 社会政治因素, 知识不足以及不确定性等。为了推动辅助迁移在保护中的应用, 我们建议先尝试小尺度的辅助迁移, 对入侵风险低的物种进行迁移, 采用能引发有效反应的稳健监测方案, 以及加大政治及公众的支持。 【翻译: 胡怡思; 审校: 聂永刚】.

1. Globally, protected areas are being established to protect biodiversity and to promote ecosystem resilience. The typical spatial conservation planning process leading to the creation of these protected areas focuses on representation and replication of ecological features, often using decision support tools such as Marxan. Yet, despite the important role ecological connectivity has in metapopulation persistence and resilience, Marxan currently requires manual input or specialized scripts to explicitly consider connectivity. 2. ‘Marxan Connect’ is a new open source, open access Graphical User Interface (GUI) tool designed to assist conservation planners with the appropriate use of data on ecological connectivity in protected area network planning. 3. Marxan Connect can facilitate the use of estimates of demographic connectivity (e.g. derived from animal tracking data, dispersal models, or genetic tools) or structural landscape connectivity (e.g. isolation by resistance). This is accomplished by calculating metapopulation‐relevant connectivity metrics (e.g. eigenvector centrality) and treating those as conservation features or by including the connectivity data as a spatial dependency amongst sites in the prioritization process. 4. Marxan Connect allows a wide group of users to incorporate directional ecological connectivity into conservation planning with Marxan. The solutions provided by Marxan Connect, combined with ecologically relevant post‐hoc testing, are more likely to support persistent and resilient metapopulations (e.g. fish stocks) and provide better protection for biodiversity.

Localized stressors compound the ongoing climate-driven decline of coral reefs, requiring natural resource managers to work with rapidly shifting paradigms. Trait-based adaptive management (TBAM) is a new framework to help address changing conditions by choosing and implementing management actions specific to species groups that share key traits, vulnerabilities, and management responses. In TBAM maintenance of functioning ecosystems is balanced with provisioning for human subsistence and livelihoods. We first identified trait-based groups of food fish in a Pacific coral reef with hierarchical clustering. Positing that trait-based groups performing comparable functions respond similarly to both stressors and management actions, we ascertained biophysical and socioeconomic drivers of trait-group biomass and evaluated their vulnerabilities with generalized additive models. Clustering identified 7 trait groups from 131 species. Groups responded to different drivers and displayed divergent vulnerabilities; human activities emerged as important predictors of community structuring. Biomass of small, solitary reef-associated species increased with distance from key fishing ports, and large, solitary piscivores exhibited a decline in biomass with distance from a port. Group biomass also varied in response to different habitat types, the presence or absence of reported dynamite fishing activity, and exposure to wave energy. The differential vulnerabilities of trait groups revealed how the community structure of food fishes is driven by different aspects of resource use and habitat. This inherent variability in the responses of trait-based groups presents opportunities to apply selective TBAM strategies for complex, multispecies fisheries. This approach can be widely adjusted to suit local contexts and priorities.Grupos de Atributos como Entidades de Manejo en una Pesquería de Arrecife Compleja y Multiespecie Resumen Los estresantes localizados agravan la continua declinación de los arrecifes de coral causada por el clima, lo que requiere que los administradores de recursos naturales trabajen con paradigmas en constante cambio. El manejo adaptativo basado en caracteres (TBAM, en inglés) es un marco de trabajo nuevo que ayuda a enfrentar las condiciones cambiantes mediante la selección e implementación de acciones de manejo específicas para grupos de especies que comparten atributos, vulnerabilidades y respuestas al manejo esenciales. En el TBAM, el mantenimiento de los ecosistemas funcionales está balanceado con el suministro para la subsistencia humana. Identificamos mediante un agrupamiento jerárquico los grupos basados en atributos de peces para la alimentación en un arrecife de coral del Pacífico. Al plantear que los grupos basados en atributos que desempeñan funciones comparables responden similarmente a los estresantes y las acciones de manejo, determinamos los impulsores biofísicos y socioeconómicos de la biomasa de un grupo de atributos y evaluamos sus vulnerabilidades mediante modelos aditivos generalizados. Identificamos siete grupos de atributos a partir de 131 especies. Los grupos respondieron a diferentes impulsores y desplegaron vulnerabilidades divergentes; las actividades humanas aparecieron como predictores importantes de la estructuración de la comunidad. La biomasa de las especies solitarias asociadas al arrecife incrementó con la distancia desde puertos importantes de pesca y los piscívoros solitarios de gran tamaño exhibieron una declinación en la biomasa junto con la distancia desde un puerto. La biomasa de los grupos también varió en respuesta a los diferentes tipos de hábitat, la presencia o ausencia reportada de actividad pesquera con dinamita y la exposición a la energía del oleaje. Las vulnerabilidades diferenciales de los grupos de atributos revelaron cómo la estructura de la comunidad de peces para la alimentación está impulsada por aspectos diferentes del uso de recursos y del hábitat. Esta variabilidad inherente en las respuestas de los grupos basados en atributos presenta la oportunidad de aplicar estrategias selectivas de manejo basado en atributos en las pesquerías complejas y multiespecie. Este enfoque puede ajustarse abiertamente para adaptarse a los contextos y las prioridades locales.【摘要】局部压力因素加剧了气候导致的珊瑚礁持续减少, 这要求自然资源管理者在快速变化的形式下开展工作。基于性状的适应性管理 (TBAM) 是一个新的框架, 通过对具有关键性状、脆弱性和管理响应的物种群选择和实施针对性的管理行动, 以应对不断变化情况。TBAM要求平衡维持生态系统功能与为人类提供生计。本研究首先利用层次聚类确定了太平洋珊瑚礁中基于性状的可食用鱼类物种群。由于基于性状的物种群有类似的功能, 对压力因素和管理行动也有相似的响应, 因此, 我们确定了影响性状群生物量的生物物理和社会经济驱动因素, 并用广义可加模型评估了它们的脆弱性。我们还通过聚类分析确定了 131 个物种构成的7个性状群。每个性状群会对不同的驱动因素做出响应, 表现出不同的脆弱性, 而人类活动是群落结构的重要预测因素。珊瑚礁中单独活动的小型物种的生物量随着与主要渔港的距离增加而增加, 而单独活动的大型食鱼性鱼类的生物量则随着与港口的距离增加而下降。性状群生物量也随着不同的生境类型、有无炸鱼行为, 以及波能暴露情况而变化。性状群之间的脆弱性差异揭示了资源利用和栖息地不同方面的因素如何驱动了可食用鱼类的群落结构变化。性状群做出响应时内在的差异为复杂、多物种渔业中应用选择性的基于性状的适应性管理策略提供了机会。这种方法可以广泛地调整, 以适应局部地区的情况和优先事项。【翻译: 胡怡思; 审校: 聂永刚】.

The European COST Action “Unifying Approaches to Marine Connectivity for improved Resource Management for the Seas” (SEA-UNICORN, 2020‐2025) is an international research coordination initiative that unites an interdisciplinary community of scientists and policymakers from over 100 organizations across Europe and beyond. It is establishing a globally harmonized framework to deliver actionable, transdisciplinary knowledge of marine functional connectivity, promoting a sustainable blue economy and ocean conservation. Planning sustainable development in rapidly changing oceans requires a thorough comprehension of marine biodiversity and the processes underpinning the functioning of ecosystems. Connectivity among marine populations and habitats facilitates the persistence and resilience of vulnerable species and ecosystems and controls the spread of invasive species. Constructing effective networks of restoration or conservation areas and promoting sustainable harvesting requires knowledge of connectivity. SEA-UNICORN advances worldwide collaboration by coordinating the collection, sharing, and application of knowledge on species, community, and ecosystem connectivity at sea and at the land‐sea interface. It engages scientists from diverse areas and early-career researchers and creates a stronger match between natural and social science and policy needs to better address key environmental issues that challenge the future of our planet.