Search

Water quality of the Great Barrier Reef (GBR) is determined by a range of natural and anthropogenic drivers that are resolved in the eReefs coupled hydrodynamic - biogeochemical marine model forced by a process-based catchment model, GBR Dynamic SedNet. Model simulations presented here quantify the impact of anthropogenic catchment loads of sediments and nutrients on a range of marine water quality variables. Simulations of 2011-2018 show that reduction of anthropogenic catchment loads results in improved water quality, especially within river plumes. Within the 16 resolved river plumes, anthropogenic loads increased chlorophyll concentration by 0.10 (0.02-0.25) mg Chl m -3 . Reductions of anthropogenic loads following proposed Reef 2050 Water Quality Improvement Plan targets reduced chlorophyll concentration in the plumes by 0.04 (0.01-0.10) mg Chl m -3 . Our simulations demonstrate the impact of anthropogenic loads on GBR water quality and quantify the benefits of improved catchment management., (Crown Copyright © 2021. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.)

The Great Barrier Reef (GBR) is founded on reef-building corals. Corals build their exoskeleton with aragonite, but ocean acidification is lowering the aragonite saturation state of seawater (Ωa). The downscaling of ocean acidification projections from global to GBR scales requires the set of regional drivers controlling Ωa to be resolved. Here we use a regional coupled circulation-biogeochemical model and observations to estimate the Ωa experienced by the 3,581 reefs of the GBR, and to apportion the contributions of the hydrological cycle, regional hydrodynamics and metabolism on Ωa variability. We find more detail, and a greater range (1.43), than previously compiled coarse maps of Ωa of the region (0.4), or in observations (1.0). Most of the variability in Ωa is due to processes upstream of the reef in question. As a result, future decline in Ωa is likely to be steeper on the GBR than currently projected by the IPCC assessment report.