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The study is a 3,000 person web survey conducted in France to test theories about the relationship between the COVID-19 pandemic and attitudes regarding globalization and support for populism. The study measures many preferences regarding globalization policies, specific coronavirus shocks, and assesses conditional effects of such shocks given experimental primes that make salient aspects of the pandemic via randomly assigned vignettes. Each of the three vignettes focuses on a specific globalization or anti-elite aspect of the crisis.

The Russian invasion of Ukraine has shocked energy prices across Europe, in particular natural gas and oil. Given the heavy reliance of European countries, especially Germany, on natural gas for industrial production and as a “bridge” fuel during their clean energy transitions, the invasion has greatly increased the level and volatility of electricity prices for firms and consumers alike. Western countries have imposed a broad package of sanctions against Moscow and vowed to decrease reliance on energy imports. Energy policy, in particular subsidies, form one way by which governments can shield this price increase, however in doing so they may create winners and losers in society and mitigate whose preferences may change towards sanctions, the government and the energy transition. In this study, we conduct three survey experiments designed to assess how subsidy policy, beliefs about the extent collective action and the duration of the war, as well as sanction packaging influence public support for sanctions on Russia, individual likelihood to reduce energy consumption, and willingness to pay increased energy prices. The survey was fielded in Germany, in the summer of 2022. This pre-analysis plan is being filed in July 2022 during data collection but prior to completion of the survey.