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1. Mapping inequalities in exclusive breastfeeding in low- and middle-income countries, 2000-2018

Author: Bhattacharjee, NV, Schaeffer, LE, Hay, SI, Lu, D, Schipp, MF, Lazzar-Atwood, A, Donkers, KM, Abady, GG, Abd-Allah, F, Abdelalim, A, Abebo, ZH, Abejie, AN, Abosetugn, AE, Abreu, LG, Abrigo, MRM, Abu-Gharbieh, E, Abushouk, AI, Adamu, AL, Adedeji, IA, Adegbosin, AE, Adekanmbi, V, Adetokunboh, OO, Agudelo-Botero, M, Aji, B, Akinyemi, OO, Alamneh, AA, Alanezi, FM, Alanzi, TM, Albright, J, Alcalde-Rabanal, JE, Alemu, BW, Alhassan, RK, Ali, BA, Ali, S, Alinia, C, Alipour, V, Amit, AML, Amugsi, DA, Anbesu, EW, Ancuceanu, R, Anjomshoa, M, Ansari, F, Antonio, CAT, Anvari, D, Arabloo, J, Arora, A, Artanti, KD, Asemahagn, MA, Asmare, WN, Atout, MMW, Ausloos, M, Awoke, N, Quintanilla, BPA, Ayanore, MA, Aynalem, YA, Ayza, MA, Azene, ZN, Darshan, BB, Badiye, AD, Baig, AA, Bakkannavar, SM, Banach, M, Banik, PC, Bärnighausen, TW, Basaleem, H, Bayati, M, Baye, BA, Bedi, N, Belay, SA, Bhagavathula, AS, Bhandari, D, Bhardwaj, N, Bhardwaj, P, Bhutta, ZA, Bijani, A, Birhan, TA, Birihane, BM, Bitew, ZW, Bohlouli, S, Bohluli, M, Bojia, HA, Boloor, A, Brady, OJ, Bragazzi, NL, Brunoni, AR, Budhathoki, SS, Nagaraja, SB, Butt, ZA, Cárdenas, R, Castaldelli-Maia, JM, Castro, F, Cernigliaro, A, Charan, J, Chatterjee, P, Chatterjee, S, Chattu, VK, Chaturvedi, S, Chowdhury, MAK, Chu, D-T, Collison, ML, Cook, AJ, Cork, MA, Couto, RAS, Dagnew, B, Dai, H, Dandona, L, Dandona, R, Daneshpajouhnejad, P, Darwesh, AM, Darwish, AH, Daryani, A, Das, JK, Gupta, RD, Dávila-Cervantes, CA, Davis, AC, Weaver, ND, Denova-Gutiérrez, E, Deribe, K, Desalew, A, Deshpande, A, Dessie, A, Deuba, K, Dharmaratne, SD, Dhimal, M, Dhungana, GP, Diaz, D, Didarloo, A, Dipeolu, IO, Doan, LP, Duko, B, Duraes, AR, Dwyer-Lindgren, L, Earl, L, Zaki, MES, Tantawi, ME, Elema, TB, Elhabashy, HR, El-Jaafary, SI, Faris, PS, Faro, A, Farzadfar, F, Feigin, VL, Feleke, BE, Ferede, TY, Fischer, F, Foigt, NA, Folayan, MO, Franklin, RC, Gad, MM, Gaidhane, S, Gardner, WM, Geberemariyam, BS, Gebregiorgis, BG, Gebremedhin, KB, Gebremichael, B, Ghaffarpasand, F, Gilani, SA, Ginindza, TG, Glagn, M, Golechha, M, Gonfa, KB, Goulart, BNG, Gudi, N, Guido, D, Guled, RA, Guo, Y, Hamidi, S, Handiso, DW, Hasaballah, AI, Hassan, A, Hayat, K, Hegazy, MI, Heidari, B, Henry, NJ, Herteliu, C, de, Hidru, HD, Ho, HC, Hoang, CL, Holla, R, Hon, J, Hosseini, M, Hosseinzadeh, M, Househ, M, Hsairi, M, Hu, G, Huda, TM, Hwang, B-F, Ibitoye, SE, Ilesanmi, OS, Ilic, IM, Ilic, MD, Inbaraj, LR, Iqbal, U, Irvani, SSN, Islam, MM, Iwu, CCD, Iwu, CJ, Jain, A, Janodia, MD, Javaheri, T, John-Akinola, YO, Johnson, KB, Joukar, F, Jozwiak, JJ, Kabir, A, Kalankesh, LR, Kalhor, R, Kamath, A, Kamyari, N, Kanchan, OT, Kapoor, N, Matin, BK, Karimi, SE, Kasaye, HK, Kassahun, G, Kassebaum, NJ, Kayode, GA, Karyani, AK, Keiyoro, PN, Kelkay, B, Khalid, N, Khan, MN, Khatab, K, Khater, AM, Khater, MM, Khatib, MN, Kim, YJ, Kimokoti, RW, Kinyoki, DK, Kisa, A, Kisa, S, Kosen, S, Krishan, K, Kulkarni, V, Kumar, GA, Kumar, M, Kumar, N, Kumar, P, Kurmi, OP, Kusuma, D, Vecchia, CL, Lad, SD, Lami, FH, Landires, I, Lansingh, VC, Lasrado, S, Lee, PH, LeGrand, KE, Letourneau, ID, Lewycka, S, Li, B, Li, M-C, Li, S, Liu, X, Lodha, R, Lopez, JCF, Louie, C, Machado, DB, Maled, V, Maleki, S, Malta, DC, Mamun, AA, Manafi, N, Mansournia, MA, Mapoma, CC, Marczak, LB, Martins-Melo, FR, Mehndiratta, MM, Mejia-Rodriguez, F, Mekonnen, TC, Mendoza, W, Menezes, RG, Mengesha, EW, Mersha, AM, Miller, TR, Mini, GK, Mirrakhimov, EM, Misra, S, Moghadaszadeh, M, Mohammad, DK, Mohammadian-Hafshejani, A, Mohammed, JA, Mohammed, S, Mokdad, AH, Montero-Zamora, PA, Moradi, M, Moradzadeh, R, Moraga, P, Mosser, JF, Mousavi, SM, Khaneghah, AM, Munro, SB, Muriithi, MK, Mustafa, G, Muthupandian, S, Nagarajan, AJ, Naik, G, Naimzada, MD, Nangia, V, Nascimento, BR, Nayak, VC, Ndejjo, R, Ndwandwe, DE, Negoi, I, Nguefack-Tsague, G, Ngunjiri, JW, Nguyen, CT, Nguyen, DN, Nguyen, HLT, Nigussie, SN, Nigussie, TTN, Nikbakhsh, R, Nnaji, CA, Nunez-Samudio, V, Oancea, B, Oghenetega, OB, Olagunju, AT, Olusanya, BO, Olusanya, JO, Omer, MO, Onwujekwe, OE, Ortega-Altamirano, DV, Osgood-Zimmerman, AE, Otstavnov, N, Otstavnov, SS, Owolabi, MO, Mahesh, PA, Padubidri, JR, Pana, A, Pandey, A, Pandi-Perumal, SR, Pangaribuan, HU, Parsekar, SS, Pasupula, DK, Patel, UK, Pathak, A, Pathak, M, Pattanshetty, SM, Patton, GC, Paulos, K, Pepito, VCF, Pickering, BV, Pinheiro, M, Piwoz, EG, Pokhrel, KN, Pourjafar, H, Prada, SI, Pribadi, DRA, Syed, ZQ, Rabiee, M, Rabiee, N, Rahim, F, Rahimzadeh, S, Rahman, A, Rahman, MHU, Rahmani, AM, Rai, RK, Ranabhat, CL, Rao, SJ, Rastogi, P, Rathi, P, Rawaf, DL, Rawaf, S, Rawassizadeh, R, Rawat, R, Regassa, LD, Rego, MAS, Reiner, RC, Reshmi, B, Rezapour, A, Ribeiro, AI, Rickard, J, Roever, L, Rumisha, SF, Rwegerera, GM, Sagar, R, Sajadi, SM, Salem, MR, Samy, AM, Santric-Milicevic, MM, Saraswathy, SYI, Sarker, AR, Sartorius, B, Sathian, B, Saxena, D, Sbarra, AN, Sengupta, D, Senthilkumaran, S, Sha, F, Shafaat, O, Shaheen, AA, Shaikh, MA, Shalash, AS, Shannawaz, M, Sheikh, A, Shetty, BSK, Shetty, RS, Shibuya, K, Shiferaw, WS, Shin, JI, Silva, DAS, Singh, NP, Singh, P, Singh, S, Sintayehu, Y, Skryabin, VY, Skryabina, AA, Soheili, A, Soltani, S, Sorrie, MB, Spurlock, EE, Steuben, KM, Sudaryanto, A, Sufiyan, MB, Swartz, SJ, Tadesse, EG, Tamiru, AT, Tapak, L, Tareque, MI, Tarigan, IU, Tesema, GA, Tesfay, FH, Teshome, A, Tessema, ZT, Thankappan, KR, Thapar, R, Thomas, N, Topor-Madry, R, Tovani-Palone, MR, Traini, E, Tran, BX, Truong, PN, Tsegaye, BTBT, Ullah, I, Umeokonkwo, CD, Unnikrishnan, B, Upadhyay, E, Uzochukwu, BSC, VanderHeide, JD, Violante, FS, Vo, B, Wado, YD, Waheed, Y, Wamai, RG, Wang, F, Wang, Y, Wang, Y-P, Wickramasinghe, ND, Wiens, KE, Wiysonge, CS, Woyczynski, L, Wu, A-M, Wu, C, Yamada, T, Yaya, S, Yeshaneh, A, Yeshaw, Y, Yeshitila, YG, Yilma, MT, Yip, P, Yonemoto, N, Yosef, T, Younis, MZ, Yousuf, AY, Yu, C, Yu, Y, Yuce, D, Zafar, S, Zaidi, SS, Zaki, L, Zakzuk, J, Zamanian, M, Zar, HJ, Zastrozhin, MS, Zastrozhina, A, Zelellw, DA, Zhang, Y, Zhang, Z-J, Zhao, X-JG, Zodpey, S, Zuniga, YMH, Local Burden of Disease Exclusive Breastfeeding Collaborators, Bhattacharjee, Natalia V, Schaeffer, Lauren E, Hay, Simon I, Duko, Bereket, Yeshaw, Yigizie, Local Burden of Disease Exclusive Breastfeeding Collaborators, Bhattacharjee N.V., Schaeffer L.E., Hay S.I., Lu D., Schipp M.F., Lazzar-Atwood A., Donkers K.M., Abady G.G., Abd-Allah F., Abdelalim A., Abebo Z.H., Abejie A.N., Abosetugn A.E., Abreu L.G., Abrigo M.R.M., Abu-Gharbieh E., Abushouk A.I., Adamu A.L., Adedeji I.A., Adegbosin A.E., Adekanmbi V., Adetokunboh O.O., Agudelo-Botero M., Aji B., Akinyemi O.O., Alamneh A.A., Alanezi F.M., Alanzi T.M., Albright J., Alcalde-Rabanal J.E., Alemu B.W., Alhassan R.K., Ali B.A., Ali S., Alinia C., Alipour V., Amit A.M.L., Amugsi D.A., Anbesu E.W., Ancuceanu R., Anjomshoa M., Ansari F., Antonio C.A.T., Anvari D., Arabloo J., Arora A., Artanti K.D., Asemahagn M.A., Asmare W.N., Atout M.M.W., Ausloos M., Awoke N., Quintanilla B.P.A., Ayanore M.A., Aynalem Y.A., Ayza M.A., Azene Z.N., Darshan B.B., Badiye A.D., Baig A.A., Bakkannavar S.M., Banach M., Banik P.C., Barnighausen T.W., Basaleem H., Bayati M., Baye B.A., Bedi N., Belay S.A., Bhagavathula A.S., Bhandari D., Bhardwaj N., Bhardwaj P., Bhutta Z.A., Bijani A., Birhan T.A., Birihane B.M., Bitew Z.W., Bohlouli S., Bohluli M., Bojia H.A., Boloor A., Brady O.J., Bragazzi N.L., Brunoni A.R., Budhathoki S.S., Nagaraja S.B., Butt Z.A., Cardenas R., Castaldelli-Maia J.M., Castro F., Cernigliaro A., Charan J., Chatterjee P., Chatterjee S., Chattu V.K., Chaturvedi S., Chowdhury M.A.K., Chu D.-T., Collison M.L., Cook A.J., Cork M.A., Couto R.A.S., Dagnew B., Dai H., Dandona L., Dandona R., Daneshpajouhnejad P., Darwesh A.M., Darwish A.H., Daryani A., Das J.K., Gupta R.D., Davila-Cervantes C.A., Davis A.C., Weaver N.D., Denova-Gutierrez E., Deribe K., Desalew A., Deshpande A., Dessie A., Deuba K., Dharmaratne S.D., Dhimal M., Dhungana G.P., Diaz D., Didarloo A., Dipeolu I.O., Doan L.P., Duko B., Duraes A.R., Dwyer-Lindgren L., Earl L., Zaki M.E.S., Tantawi M.E., Elema T.B., Elhabashy H.R., El-Jaafary S.I., Faris P.S., Faro A., Farzadfar F., Feigin V.L., Feleke B.E., Ferede T.Y., Fischer F., Foigt N.A., Folayan M.O., Franklin R.C., Gad M.M., Gaidhane S., Gardner W.M., Geberemariyam B.S., Gebregiorgis B.G., Gebremedhin K.B., Gebremichael B., Ghaffarpasand F., Gilani S.A., Ginindza T.G., Glagn M., Golechha M., Gonfa K.B., Goulart B.N.G., Gudi N., Guido D., Guled R.A., Guo Y., Hamidi S., Handiso D.W., Hasaballah A.I., Hassan A., Hayat K., Hegazy M.I., Heidari B., Henry N.J., Herteliu C., de Hidru H.D., Ho H.C., Hoang C.L., Holla R., Hon J., Hosseini M., Hosseinzadeh M., Househ M., Hsairi M., Hu G., Huda T.M., Hwang B.-F., Ibitoye S.E., Ilesanmi O.S., Ilic I.M., Ilic M.D., Inbaraj L.R., Iqbal U., Irvani S.S.N., Islam M.M., Iwu C.C.D., Iwu C.J., Jain A., Janodia M.D., Javaheri T., John-Akinola Y.O., Johnson K.B., Joukar F., Jozwiak J.J., Kabir A., Kalankesh L.R., Kalhor R., Kamath A., Kamyari N., Kanchan O.T., Kapoor N., Matin B.K., Karimi S.E., Kasaye H.K., Kassahun G., Kassebaum N.J., Kayode G.A., Karyani A.K., Keiyoro P.N., Kelkay B., Khalid N., Khan M.N., Khatab K., Khater A.M., Khater M.M., Khatib M.N., Kim Y.J., Kimokoti R.W., Kinyoki D.K., Kisa A., Kisa S., Kosen S., Krishan K., Kulkarni V., Kumar G.A., Kumar M., Kumar N., Kumar P., Kurmi O.P., Kusuma D., Vecchia C.L., Lad S.D., Lami F.H., Landires I., Lansingh V.C., Lasrado S., Lee P.H., LeGrand K.E., Letourneau I.D., Lewycka S., Li B., Li M.-C., Li S., Liu X., Lodha R., Lopez J.C.F., Louie C., Machado D.B., Maled V., Maleki S., Malta D.C., Mamun A.A., Manafi N., Mansournia M.A., Mapoma C.C., Marczak L.B., Martins-Melo F.R., Mehndiratta M.M., Mejia-Rodriguez F., Mekonnen T.C., Mendoza W., Menezes R.G., Mengesha E.W., Mersha A.M., Miller T.R., Mini G.K., Mirrakhimov E.M., Misra S., Moghadaszadeh M., Mohammad D.K., Mohammadian-Hafshejani A., Mohammed J.A., Mohammed S., Mokdad A.H., Montero-Zamora P.A., Moradi M., Moradzadeh R., Moraga P., Mosser J.F., Mousavi S.M., Khaneghah A.M., Munro S.B., Muriithi M.K., Mustafa G., Muthupandian S., Nagarajan A.J., Naik G., Naimzada M.D., Nangia V., Nascimento B.R., Nayak V.C., Ndejjo R., Ndwandwe D.E., Negoi I., Nguefack-Tsague G., Ngunjiri J.W., Nguyen C.T., Nguyen D.N., Nguyen H.L.T., Nigussie S.N., Nigussie T.T.N., Nikbakhsh R., Nnaji C.A., Nunez-Samudio V., Oancea B., Oghenetega O.B., Olagunju A.T., Olusanya B.O., Olusanya J.O., Omer M.O., Onwujekwe O.E., Ortega-Altamirano D.V., Osgood-Zimmerman A.E., Otstavnov N., Otstavnov S.S., Owolabi M.O., Mahesh P.A., Padubidri J.R., Pana A., Pandey A., Pandi-Perumal S.R., Pangaribuan H.U., Parsekar S.S., Pasupula D.K., Patel U.K., Pathak A., Pathak M., Pattanshetty S.M., Patton G.C., Paulos K., Pepito V.C.F., Pickering B.V., Pinheiro M., Piwoz E.G., Pokhrel K.N., Pourjafar H., Prada S.I., Pribadi D.R.A., Syed Z.Q., Rabiee M., Rabiee N., Rahim F., Rahimzadeh S., Rahman A., Rahman M.H.U., Rahmani A.M., Rai R.K., Ranabhat C.L., Rao S.J., Rastogi P., Rathi P., Rawaf D.L., Rawaf S., Rawassizadeh R., Rawat R., Regassa L.D., Rego M.A.S., Reiner R.C., Reshmi B., Rezapour A., Ribeiro A.I., Rickard J., Roever L., Rumisha S.F., Rwegerera G.M., Sagar R., Sajadi S.M., Salem M.R., Samy A.M., Santric-Milicevic M.M., Saraswathy S.Y.I., Sarker A.R., Sartorius B., Sathian B., Saxena D., Sbarra A.N., Sengupta D., Senthilkumaran S., Sha F., Shafaat O., Shaheen A.A., Shaikh M.A., Shalash A.S., Shannawaz M., Sheikh A., Shetty B.S.K., Shetty R.S., Shibuya K., Shiferaw W.S., Shin J.I., Silva D.A.S., Singh N.P., Singh P., Singh S., Sintayehu Y., Skryabin V.Y., Skryabina A.A., Soheili A., Soltani S., Sorrie M.B., Spurlock E.E., Steuben K.M., Sudaryanto A., Sufiyan M.B., Swartz S.J., Tadesse E.G., Tamiru A.T., Tapak L., Tareque M.I., Tarigan I.U., Tesema G.A., Tesfay F.H., Teshome A., Tessema Z.T., Thankappan K.R., Thapar R., Thomas N., Topor-Madry R., Tovani-Palone M.R., Traini E., Tran B.X., Truong P.N., Tsegaye B.T.B.T., Ullah I., Umeokonkwo C.D., Unnikrishnan B., Upadhyay E., Uzochukwu B.S.C., VanderHeide J.D., Violante F.S., Vo B., Wado Y.D., Waheed Y., Wamai R.G., Wang F., Wang Y., Wang Y.-P., Wickramasinghe N.D., Wiens K.E., Wiysonge C.S., Woyczynski L., Wu A.-M., Wu C., Yamada T., Yaya S., Yeshaneh A., Yeshaw Y., Yeshitila Y.G., Yilma M.T., Yip P., Yonemoto N., Yosef T., Younis M.Z., Yousuf A.Y., Yu C., Yu Y., Yuce D., Zafar S., Zaidi S.S., Zaki L., Zakzuk J., Zamanian M., Zar H.J., Zastrozhin M.S., Zastrozhina A., Zelellw D.A., Zhang Y., Zhang Z.-J., Zhao X.-J.G., Zodpey S., Zuniga Y.M.H., Collaborators, Local Burden of Disease Exclusive Breastfeeding, and Instituto de Saúde Pública da Universidade do Porto
Subjects: RJ101, Psychological intervention, Breastfeeding, Social Sciences, geography, Behavioral Neuroscience, 0302 clinical medicine, RA0421, Prevalence, Psychology, policy making, 030212 general & internal medicine, Policy Making, humans, media_common, CHILD GROWTH FAILURE, Developing world, 0303 health sciences, education.field_of_study, Psychology, Biological, Geography, Psychology, Experimental, Health Status Disparitie, Multidisciplinary Sciences, Breast Feeding, breast feeding, Scale (social sciences), Science & Technology - Other Topics, Life Sciences & Biomedicine, Human, AFRICA, Social Psychology, Inequality, spatial analysis, media_common.quotation_subject, public policy, Population, prevalence, Public policy, Developing country, Experimental and Cognitive Psychology, Public Policy, Local Burden of Disease Exclusive Breastfeeding Collaborators, Article, Developing Countrie, 03 medical and health sciences, Environmental health, Humans, Nutrition disorders, education, Developing Countries, 030304 developmental biology, Spatial Analysis, Science & Technology, Neurosciences, Health Status Disparities, developing countries, health status disparities, Risk factors, Neurosciences & Neurology, Breast feeding
Abstract: Exclusive breastfeeding (EBF)—giving infants only breast-milk for the first 6 months of life—is a component of optimal breastfeeding practices effective in preventing child morbidity and mortality. EBF practices are known to vary by population and comparable subnational estimates of prevalence and progress across low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) are required for planning policy and interventions. Here we present a geospatial analysis of EBF prevalence estimates from 2000 to 2018 across 94 LMICs mapped to policy-relevant administrative units (for example, districts), quantify subnational inequalities and their changes over time, and estimate probabilities of meeting the World Health Organization’s Global Nutrition Target (WHO GNT) of ≥70% EBF prevalence by 2030. While six LMICs are projected to meet the WHO GNT of ≥70% EBF prevalence at a national scale, only three are predicted to meet the target in all their district-level units by 2030., Bhattacharjee and Schaeffer et al. map exclusive breastfeeding (EBF) in 94 low- and middle-income countries (LMICs), finding increased EBF practice and reduced subnational variation across the majority of LMICs from 2000 to 2018. However, only six LMICs will meet WHO’s target of ≥70% EBF by 2030 nationally, and only three will achieve this in all districts.
Published: 2021

2. Mapping child growth failure across low- and middle-income countries

Author: Kinyoki, DK, Osgood-Zimmerman, AE, Pickering, BV, Schaeffer, LE, Marczak, LB, Lazzar-Atwood, A, Collison, ML, Henry, NJ, Abebe, Z, Adamu, AA, Adekanmbi, V, Ahmadi, K, Ajumobi, O, Al-Eyadhy, A, Al-Raddadi, RM, Alahdab, F, Alijanzadeh, M, Alipour, V, Altirkawi, K, Amini, S, Andrei, CL, Antonio, CAT, Arabloo, J, Aremu, O, Asadi-Aliabadi, M, Atique, S, Ausloos, M, Avila, M, Awasthi, A, Quintanilla, BPA, Azari, S, Badawi, A, Barnighausen, TW, Bassat, Q, Baye, K, Bedi, N, Bekele, BB, Bell, ML, Bhattacharjee, NV, Bhattacharyya, K, Bhattarai, S, Bhutta, ZA, Biadgo, B, Bikbov, B, Briko, AN, Britton, G, Burstein, R, Butt, ZA, Car, J, Castaneda-Orjuela, CA, Castro, F, Cerin, E, Chipeta, MG, Chu, D-T, Cork, MA, Cromwell, EA, Cuevas-Nasu, L, Dandona, L, Dandona, R, Daoud, F, Das Gupta, R, Weaver, ND, De Leo, D, De Neve, J-W, Deribe, K, Desalegn, BB, Deshpande, A, Desta, M, Diaz, D, Dinberu, MT, Doku, DT, Dubey, M, Duraes, AR, Dwyer-Lindgren, L, Earl, L, Effiong, A, Zaki, MES, El Tantawi, M, El-Khatib, Z, Eshrati, B, Fareed, M, Faro, A, Fereshtehnejad, S-M, Filip, I, Fischer, F, Foigt, NA, Folayan, MO, Fukumoto, T, Gebrehiwot, TT, Gezae, KE, Ghajar, A, Gill, PS, Gona, PN, Gopalani, SV, Grada, A, Guo, Y, Haj-Mirzaian, A, Hall, JB, Hamidi, S, Henok, A, Prado, BH, Herrero, M, Herteliu, C, Hoang, CL, Hole, MK, Hossain, N, Hosseinzadeh, M, Hu, G, Islam, SMS, Jakovljevic, M, Jha, RP, Jonas, JB, Jozwiak, JJ, Kahsay, A, Kanchan, T, Karami, M, Kasaeian, A, Khader, YS, Khan, EA, Khater, MM, Kim, YJ, Kimokoti, RW, Kisa, A, Kochhar, S, Kosen, S, Koyanagi, A, Krishan, K, Defo, BK, Kumar, GA, Kumar, M, Lad, SD, Lami, FH, Lee, PH, Levine, AJ, Li, S, Linn, S, Lodha, R, Abd El Razek, HM, Abd El Razek, MM, Majdan, M, Majeed, A, Malekzadeh, R, Malta, DC, Mamun, AA, Mansournia, MA, Martins-Melo, FR, Masaka, A, Massenburg, BB, Mayala, BK, Mejia-Rodriguez, F, Melku, M, Mendoza, W, Mensah, GA, Miazgowski, T, Miller, TR, Mini, GK, Mirrakhimov, EM, Moazen, B, Darwesh, AM, Mohammed, S, Mohebi, F, Mokdad, AH, Moodley, Y, Moradi, G, Moradi-Lakeh, M, Moraga, P, Morrison, SD, Mosser, JF, Mousavi, SM, Mueller, UO, Murray, CJL, Mustafa, G, Naderi, M, Naghavi, M, Najafi, F, Nangia, V, Ndwandwe, DE, Negoi, I, Ngunjiri, JW, Nguyen, HLT, Nguyen, LH, Nguyen, SH, Nie, J, Nnaji, CA, Noubiap, JJ, Shiadeh, MN, Nyasulu, PS, Ogbo, FA, Olagunju, AT, Olusanya, BO, Olusanya, JO, Ortiz-Panozo, E, Otstavnov, SS, Mahesh, PA, Pana, A, Pandey, A, Pati, S, Patil, ST, Patton, GC, Perico, N, Pigott, DM, Pirsaheb, M, Piwoz, EG, Postma, MJ, Pourshams, A, Prakash, S, Quintana, H, Radfar, A, Rafiei, A, Rahimi-Movaghar, V, Rai, RK, Rajati, F, Rawaf, DL, Rawaf, S, Rawat, R, Remuzzi, G, Renzaho, AMN, Rios-Gonzalez, C, Roever, L, Ross, JM, Rostami, A, Sadat, N, Safari, Y, Safdarian, M, Sahebkar, A, Salam, N, Salamati, P, Salimi, Y, Salimzadeh, H, Samy, AM, Sartorius, B, Sathian, B, Schipp, MF, Schwebel, DC, Senbeta, AM, Sepanlou, SG, Shaikh, MA, Levy, TS, Shamsi, M, Sharafi, K, Sharma, R, Sheikh, A, Shil, A, Silva, DAS, Singh, JA, Sinha, DN, Soofi, M, Sudaryanto, A, Sufiyan, MB, Tabares-Seisdedos, R, Tadesse, BT, Temsah, M-H, Terkawi, AS, Tessema, ZT, Thorne-Lyman, AL, Tovani-Palone, MR, Tran, BX, Tran, KB, Ullah, I, Uthman, OA, Vaezghasemi, M, Vaezi, A, Valdez, PR, Vanderheide, J, Veisani, Y, Violante, FS, Vlassov, V, Vu, GT, Vu, LG, Waheed, Y, Walson, JL, Wang, Y, Wang, Y-P, Wangia, EN, Werdecker, A, Xu, G, Yamada, T, Yisma, E, Yonemoto, N, Younis, MZ, Yousefifard, M, Yu, C, Bin Zaman, S, Zamani, M, Zhang, Y, Kassebaum, NJ, Hay, SI, Kinyoki, DK, Osgood-Zimmerman, AE, Pickering, BV, Schaeffer, LE, Marczak, LB, Lazzar-Atwood, A, Collison, ML, Henry, NJ, Abebe, Z, Adamu, AA, Adekanmbi, V, Ahmadi, K, Ajumobi, O, Al-Eyadhy, A, Al-Raddadi, RM, Alahdab, F, Alijanzadeh, M, Alipour, V, Altirkawi, K, Amini, S, Andrei, CL, Antonio, CAT, Arabloo, J, Aremu, O, Asadi-Aliabadi, M, Atique, S, Ausloos, M, Avila, M, Awasthi, A, Quintanilla, BPA, Azari, S, Badawi, A, Barnighausen, TW, Bassat, Q, Baye, K, Bedi, N, Bekele, BB, Bell, ML, Bhattacharjee, NV, Bhattacharyya, K, Bhattarai, S, Bhutta, ZA, Biadgo, B, Bikbov, B, Briko, AN, Britton, G, Burstein, R, Butt, ZA, Car, J, Castaneda-Orjuela, CA, Castro, F, Cerin, E, Chipeta, MG, Chu, D-T, Cork, MA, Cromwell, EA, Cuevas-Nasu, L, Dandona, L, Dandona, R, Daoud, F, Das Gupta, R, Weaver, ND, De Leo, D, De Neve, J-W, Deribe, K, Desalegn, BB, Deshpande, A, Desta, M, Diaz, D, Dinberu, MT, Doku, DT, Dubey, M, Duraes, AR, Dwyer-Lindgren, L, Earl, L, Effiong, A, Zaki, MES, El Tantawi, M, El-Khatib, Z, Eshrati, B, Fareed, M, Faro, A, Fereshtehnejad, S-M, Filip, I, Fischer, F, Foigt, NA, Folayan, MO, Fukumoto, T, Gebrehiwot, TT, Gezae, KE, Ghajar, A, Gill, PS, Gona, PN, Gopalani, SV, Grada, A, Guo, Y, Haj-Mirzaian, A, Hall, JB, Hamidi, S, Henok, A, Prado, BH, Herrero, M, Herteliu, C, Hoang, CL, Hole, MK, Hossain, N, Hosseinzadeh, M, Hu, G, Islam, SMS, Jakovljevic, M, Jha, RP, Jonas, JB, Jozwiak, JJ, Kahsay, A, Kanchan, T, Karami, M, Kasaeian, A, Khader, YS, Khan, EA, Khater, MM, Kim, YJ, Kimokoti, RW, Kisa, A, Kochhar, S, Kosen, S, Koyanagi, A, Krishan, K, Defo, BK, Kumar, GA, Kumar, M, Lad, SD, Lami, FH, Lee, PH, Levine, AJ, Li, S, Linn, S, Lodha, R, Abd El Razek, HM, Abd El Razek, MM, Majdan, M, Majeed, A, Malekzadeh, R, Malta, DC, Mamun, AA, Mansournia, MA, Martins-Melo, FR, Masaka, A, Massenburg, BB, Mayala, BK, Mejia-Rodriguez, F, Melku, M, Mendoza, W, Mensah, GA, Miazgowski, T, Miller, TR, Mini, GK, Mirrakhimov, EM, Moazen, B, Darwesh, AM, Mohammed, S, Mohebi, F, Mokdad, AH, Moodley, Y, Moradi, G, Moradi-Lakeh, M, Moraga, P, Morrison, SD, Mosser, JF, Mousavi, SM, Mueller, UO, Murray, CJL, Mustafa, G, Naderi, M, Naghavi, M, Najafi, F, Nangia, V, Ndwandwe, DE, Negoi, I, Ngunjiri, JW, Nguyen, HLT, Nguyen, LH, Nguyen, SH, Nie, J, Nnaji, CA, Noubiap, JJ, Shiadeh, MN, Nyasulu, PS, Ogbo, FA, Olagunju, AT, Olusanya, BO, Olusanya, JO, Ortiz-Panozo, E, Otstavnov, SS, Mahesh, PA, Pana, A, Pandey, A, Pati, S, Patil, ST, Patton, GC, Perico, N, Pigott, DM, Pirsaheb, M, Piwoz, EG, Postma, MJ, Pourshams, A, Prakash, S, Quintana, H, Radfar, A, Rafiei, A, Rahimi-Movaghar, V, Rai, RK, Rajati, F, Rawaf, DL, Rawaf, S, Rawat, R, Remuzzi, G, Renzaho, AMN, Rios-Gonzalez, C, Roever, L, Ross, JM, Rostami, A, Sadat, N, Safari, Y, Safdarian, M, Sahebkar, A, Salam, N, Salamati, P, Salimi, Y, Salimzadeh, H, Samy, AM, Sartorius, B, Sathian, B, Schipp, MF, Schwebel, DC, Senbeta, AM, Sepanlou, SG, Shaikh, MA, Levy, TS, Shamsi, M, Sharafi, K, Sharma, R, Sheikh, A, Shil, A, Silva, DAS, Singh, JA, Sinha, DN, Soofi, M, Sudaryanto, A, Sufiyan, MB, Tabares-Seisdedos, R, Tadesse, BT, Temsah, M-H, Terkawi, AS, Tessema, ZT, Thorne-Lyman, AL, Tovani-Palone, MR, Tran, BX, Tran, KB, Ullah, I, Uthman, OA, Vaezghasemi, M, Vaezi, A, Valdez, PR, Vanderheide, J, Veisani, Y, Violante, FS, Vlassov, V, Vu, GT, Vu, LG, Waheed, Y, Walson, JL, Wang, Y, Wang, Y-P, Wangia, EN, Werdecker, A, Xu, G, Yamada, T, Yisma, E, Yonemoto, N, Younis, MZ, Yousefifard, M, Yu, C, Bin Zaman, S, Zamani, M, Zhang, Y, Kassebaum, NJ, and Hay, SI
Abstract: Childhood malnutrition is associated with high morbidity and mortality globally1. Undernourished children are more likely to experience cognitive, physical, and metabolic developmental impairments that can lead to later cardiovascular disease, reduced intellectual ability and school attainment, and reduced economic productivity in adulthood2. Child growth failure (CGF), expressed as stunting, wasting, and underweight in children under five years of age (0-59 months), is a specific subset of undernutrition characterized by insufficient height or weight against age-specific growth reference standards3-5. The prevalence of stunting, wasting, or underweight in children under five is the proportion of children with a height-for-age, weight-for-height, or weight-for-age z-score, respectively, that is more than two standard deviations below the World Health Organization's median growth reference standards for a healthy population6. Subnational estimates of CGF report substantial heterogeneity within countries, but are available primarily at the first administrative level (for example, states or provinces)7; the uneven geographical distribution of CGF has motivated further calls for assessments that can match the local scale of many public health programmes8. Building from our previous work mapping CGF in Africa9, here we provide the first, to our knowledge, mapped high-spatial-resolution estimates of CGF indicators from 2000 to 2017 across 105 low- and middle-income countries (LMICs), where 99% of affected children live1, aggregated to policy-relevant first and second (for example, districts or counties) administrative-level units and national levels. Despite remarkable declines over the study period, many LMICs remain far from the ambitious World Health Organization Global Nutrition Targets to reduce stunting by 40% and wasting to less than 5% by 2025. Large disparities in prevalence and progress exist across and within countries; our maps identify high-prevalence areas e
Published: 2020

3. Mapping 123 million neonatal, infant and child deaths between 2000 and 2017

Author: Burstein, R, Henry, NJ, Collison, ML, Marczak, LB, Sligar, A, Watson, S, Marquez, N, Abbasalizad-Farhangi, M, Abbasi, M, Abd-Allah, F, Abdoli, A, Abdollahi, M, Abdollahpour, I, Abdulkader, RS, Abrigo, MRM, Acharya, D, Adebayo, OM, Adekanmbi, V, Adham, D, Afshari, M, Aghaali, M, Ahmadi, K, Ahmadi, M, Ahmadpour, E, Ahmed, R, Akal, CG, Akinyemi, JO, Alahdab, F, Alam, N, Alamene, GM, Alene, KA, Alijanzadeh, M, Alinia, C, Alipour, V, Aljunid, SM, Almalki, MJ, Al-Mekhlafi, HM, Altirkawi, K, Alvis-Guzman, N, Amegah, AK, Amini, S, Amit, AML, Anbari, Z, Androudi, S, Anjomshoa, M, Ansari, F, Antonio, CAT, Arabloo, J, Arefi, Z, Aremu, O, Armoon, B, Arora, A, Artaman, A, Asadi, A, Asadi-Aliabadi, M, Ashraf-Ganjouei, A, Assadi, R, Ataeinia, B, Atre, SR, Quintanilla, BPA, Ayanore, MA, Azari, S, Babaee, E, Babazadeh, A, Badawi, A, Bagheri, S, Bagherzadeh, M, Baheiraei, N, Balouchi, A, Barac, A, Bassat, Q, Baune, BT, Bayati, M, Bedi, N, Beghi, E, Behzadifar, M, Belay, YB, Bell, B, Bell, ML, Berbada, DA, Bernstein, RS, Bhattacharjee, NV, Bhattarai, S, Bhutta, ZA, Bijani, A, Bohlouli, S, Breitborde, NJK, Britton, G, Browne, AJ, Nagaraja, SB, Busse, R, Butt, ZA, Car, J, Cárdenas, R, Castañeda-Orjuela, CA, Cerin, E, Chanie, WF, Chatterjee, P, Chu, DT, Burstein, R, Henry, NJ, Collison, ML, Marczak, LB, Sligar, A, Watson, S, Marquez, N, Abbasalizad-Farhangi, M, Abbasi, M, Abd-Allah, F, Abdoli, A, Abdollahi, M, Abdollahpour, I, Abdulkader, RS, Abrigo, MRM, Acharya, D, Adebayo, OM, Adekanmbi, V, Adham, D, Afshari, M, Aghaali, M, Ahmadi, K, Ahmadi, M, Ahmadpour, E, Ahmed, R, Akal, CG, Akinyemi, JO, Alahdab, F, Alam, N, Alamene, GM, Alene, KA, Alijanzadeh, M, Alinia, C, Alipour, V, Aljunid, SM, Almalki, MJ, Al-Mekhlafi, HM, Altirkawi, K, Alvis-Guzman, N, Amegah, AK, Amini, S, Amit, AML, Anbari, Z, Androudi, S, Anjomshoa, M, Ansari, F, Antonio, CAT, Arabloo, J, Arefi, Z, Aremu, O, Armoon, B, Arora, A, Artaman, A, Asadi, A, Asadi-Aliabadi, M, Ashraf-Ganjouei, A, Assadi, R, Ataeinia, B, Atre, SR, Quintanilla, BPA, Ayanore, MA, Azari, S, Babaee, E, Babazadeh, A, Badawi, A, Bagheri, S, Bagherzadeh, M, Baheiraei, N, Balouchi, A, Barac, A, Bassat, Q, Baune, BT, Bayati, M, Bedi, N, Beghi, E, Behzadifar, M, Belay, YB, Bell, B, Bell, ML, Berbada, DA, Bernstein, RS, Bhattacharjee, NV, Bhattarai, S, Bhutta, ZA, Bijani, A, Bohlouli, S, Breitborde, NJK, Britton, G, Browne, AJ, Nagaraja, SB, Busse, R, Butt, ZA, Car, J, Cárdenas, R, Castañeda-Orjuela, CA, Cerin, E, Chanie, WF, Chatterjee, P, and Chu, DT
Abstract: Since 2000, many countries have achieved considerable success in improving child survival, but localized progress remains unclear. To inform efforts towards United Nations Sustainable Development Goal 3.2—to end preventable child deaths by 2030—we need consistently estimated data at the subnational level regarding child mortality rates and trends. Here we quantified, for the period 2000–2017, the subnational variation in mortality rates and number of deaths of neonates, infants and children under 5 years of age within 99 low- and middle-income countries using a geostatistical survival model. We estimated that 32% of children under 5 in these countries lived in districts that had attained rates of 25 or fewer child deaths per 1,000 live births by 2017, and that 58% of child deaths between 2000 and 2017 in these countries could have been averted in the absence of geographical inequality. This study enables the identification of high-mortality clusters, patterns of progress and geographical inequalities to inform appropriate investments and implementations that will help to improve the health of all populations.
Published: 2019

4. Global, regional, and national burden of suicide mortality 1990 to 2016: Systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016

Author: Orpana, HM, Marczak, LB, Arora, M, Abbasi, N, Abdulkader, RS, Abebe, Z, Abraha, HN, Afarideh, M, Afshari, M, Ahmadi, A, Aichour, AN, Aichour, I, Aichour, MTE, Akseer, N, Al‐raddadi, RM, Alahdab, F, Alkerwi, A, Allebeck, P, Alvis‐guzman, N, Anber, NH, Anjomshoa, M, Antonio, CAT, Arora, A, Aryal, KK, Asgedom, SW, Awasthi, A, Quintanilla, BPA, Badali, H, Barker‐collo, SL, Bärnighausen, TW, Bazargan‐hejazi, S, Benjet, C, Bensenor, IM, Berfeld, N, Beuran, M, Bhutta, ZA, Biadgo, B, Bililign, N, Borges, G, Borschmann, R, Brazinova, A, Breitborde, NJK, Brugha, T, Butt, ZA, Carrero, JJ, Carvalho, F, Malta, DC, Castañeda‐orjuela, CA, Catalá‐lópez, F, Ciobanu, LG, Dachew, BA, Dandona, L, Dandona, R, Dargan, PI, Daryani, A, Davitoiu, DV, Davletov, K, Degenhardt, L, Demoz, GT, Jarlais, DCD, Dharmaratne, SD, Djalalinia, S, Doan, L, Doku, DT, Dubey, M, El‐khatib, Z, Eskandarieh, S, Esteghamati, A, Esteghamati, S, Faro, A, Farzadfar, F, Fekadu, W, Fernandes, E, Ferrari, AJ, Filip, I, Fischer, F, Foreman, KJ, Fukumoto, T, Gebre, AK, Grosso, G, Gupta, R, Haagsma, JA, Bidgoli, HH, Haj‐mirzaian, A, Hamidi, S, Hankey, GJ, Haro, JM, Hassen, HY, Hay, SI, Heidari, B, Hendrie, D, Rad, EH, Hosseini, SM, Hostiuc, S, Irvani, SSN, Islam, SMS, Jakovljevic, M, James, S, Jayatilleke, AU, Jha, RP, Orpana, HM, Marczak, LB, Arora, M, Abbasi, N, Abdulkader, RS, Abebe, Z, Abraha, HN, Afarideh, M, Afshari, M, Ahmadi, A, Aichour, AN, Aichour, I, Aichour, MTE, Akseer, N, Al‐raddadi, RM, Alahdab, F, Alkerwi, A, Allebeck, P, Alvis‐guzman, N, Anber, NH, Anjomshoa, M, Antonio, CAT, Arora, A, Aryal, KK, Asgedom, SW, Awasthi, A, Quintanilla, BPA, Badali, H, Barker‐collo, SL, Bärnighausen, TW, Bazargan‐hejazi, S, Benjet, C, Bensenor, IM, Berfeld, N, Beuran, M, Bhutta, ZA, Biadgo, B, Bililign, N, Borges, G, Borschmann, R, Brazinova, A, Breitborde, NJK, Brugha, T, Butt, ZA, Carrero, JJ, Carvalho, F, Malta, DC, Castañeda‐orjuela, CA, Catalá‐lópez, F, Ciobanu, LG, Dachew, BA, Dandona, L, Dandona, R, Dargan, PI, Daryani, A, Davitoiu, DV, Davletov, K, Degenhardt, L, Demoz, GT, Jarlais, DCD, Dharmaratne, SD, Djalalinia, S, Doan, L, Doku, DT, Dubey, M, El‐khatib, Z, Eskandarieh, S, Esteghamati, A, Esteghamati, S, Faro, A, Farzadfar, F, Fekadu, W, Fernandes, E, Ferrari, AJ, Filip, I, Fischer, F, Foreman, KJ, Fukumoto, T, Gebre, AK, Grosso, G, Gupta, R, Haagsma, JA, Bidgoli, HH, Haj‐mirzaian, A, Hamidi, S, Hankey, GJ, Haro, JM, Hassen, HY, Hay, SI, Heidari, B, Hendrie, D, Rad, EH, Hosseini, SM, Hostiuc, S, Irvani, SSN, Islam, SMS, Jakovljevic, M, James, S, Jayatilleke, AU, and Jha, RP
Abstract: Objectives To use the estimates from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016 to describe patterns of suicide mortality globally, regionally, and for 195 countries and territories by age, sex, and Socio-demographic index, and to describe temporal trends between 1990 and 2016. Design Systematic analysis. Main outcome measures Crude and age standardised rates from suicide mortality and years of life lost were compared across regions and countries, and by age, sex, and Socio-demographic index (a composite measure of fertility, income, and education). Results The total number of deaths from suicide increased by 6.7% (95% uncertainty interval 0.4% to 15.6%) globally over the 27 year study period to 817 000 (762 000 to 884 000) deaths in 2016. However, the age standardised mortality rate for suicide decreased by 32.7% (27.2% to 36.6%) worldwide between 1990 and 2016, similar to the decline in the global age standardised mortality rate of 30.6%. Suicide was the leading cause of age standardised years of life lost in the Global Burden of Disease region of high income Asia Pacific and was among the top 10 leading causes in eastern Europe, central Europe, western Europe, central Asia, Australasia, southern Latin America, and high income North America. Rates for men were higher than for women across regions, countries, and age groups, except for the 15 to 19 age group. There was variation in the female to male ratio, with higher ratios at lower levels of Socio-demographic index. Women experienced greater decreases in mortality rates (49.0%, 95% uncertainty interval 42.6% to 54.6%) than men (23.8%, 15.6% to 32.7%). Conclusions Age standardised mortality rates for suicide have greatly reduced since 1990, but suicide remains an important contributor to mortality worldwide. Suicide mortality was variable across locations, between sexes, and between age groups. Suicide prevention strategies can be targeted towards vulnerable populations if they are informed by variations in mortalit
Published: 2019

5. Past and future spread of the arbovirus vectors Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus (vol 4, pg 854, 2019)

Author: Kraemer, MUG, Reiner, RC, Brady, OJ, Messina, JP, Gilbert, M, Pigott, DM, Yi, D, Johnson, K, Earl, L, Marczak, LB, Shirude, S, Weaver, ND, Bisanzio, D, Perkins, TA, Lai, S, Lu, X, Jones, P, Coelho, GE, Carvalho, RG, Van Bortel, W, Marsboom, C, Hendrickx, G, Schaffner, F, Moore, CG, Nax, HH, Bengtsson, L, Wetter, E, Tatem, AJ, Brownstein, JS, Smith, DL, Lambrechts, L, Cauchemez, S, Linard, C, Faria, NR, Pybus, OG, Scott, TW, Liu, Q, Yu, H, Wint, GRW, Hay, SI, Golding, N, Kraemer, MUG, Reiner, RC, Brady, OJ, Messina, JP, Gilbert, M, Pigott, DM, Yi, D, Johnson, K, Earl, L, Marczak, LB, Shirude, S, Weaver, ND, Bisanzio, D, Perkins, TA, Lai, S, Lu, X, Jones, P, Coelho, GE, Carvalho, RG, Van Bortel, W, Marsboom, C, Hendrickx, G, Schaffner, F, Moore, CG, Nax, HH, Bengtsson, L, Wetter, E, Tatem, AJ, Brownstein, JS, Smith, DL, Lambrechts, L, Cauchemez, S, Linard, C, Faria, NR, Pybus, OG, Scott, TW, Liu, Q, Yu, H, Wint, GRW, Hay, SI, and Golding, N
Abstract: This Article was mistakenly not made Open Access when originally published; this has now been amended, and information about the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License has been added into the 'Additional information' section.
Published: 2019

6. Past and future spread of the arbovirus vectors Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus

Author: Kraemer, MUG, Reiner, RC, Brady, O, Messina, JP, Gilbert, M, Pigott, DM, Yi, D, Johnson, K, Earl, L, Marczak, LB, Shirude, S, Weaver, N, Bisanzio, D, Perkins, TA, Lai, S, Lu, X, Jones, P, Coelho, GE, Carvalho, RG, Van Bortel, W, Marsboom, C, Hendrickx, G, Schaffner, F, Moore, CG, Nax, HH, Bengtsson, L, Wetter, E, Tatem, AJ, Brownstein, JS, Smith, DL, Lambrechts, L, Cauchemez, S, Linard, C, Faria, NR, Pybus, OG, Scott, TW, Liu, Q, Yu, H, Wint, GRW, Hay, S, Golding, N, Kraemer, MUG, Reiner, RC, Brady, O, Messina, JP, Gilbert, M, Pigott, DM, Yi, D, Johnson, K, Earl, L, Marczak, LB, Shirude, S, Weaver, N, Bisanzio, D, Perkins, TA, Lai, S, Lu, X, Jones, P, Coelho, GE, Carvalho, RG, Van Bortel, W, Marsboom, C, Hendrickx, G, Schaffner, F, Moore, CG, Nax, HH, Bengtsson, L, Wetter, E, Tatem, AJ, Brownstein, JS, Smith, DL, Lambrechts, L, Cauchemez, S, Linard, C, Faria, NR, Pybus, OG, Scott, TW, Liu, Q, Yu, H, Wint, GRW, Hay, S, and Golding, N
Abstract: The global population at risk from mosquito-borne diseases-including dengue, yellow fever, chikungunya and Zika-is expanding in concert with changes in the distribution of two key vectors: Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus. The distribution of these species is largely driven by both human movement and the presence of suitable climate. Using statistical mapping techniques, we show that human movement patterns explain the spread of both species in Europe and the United States following their introduction. We find that the spread of Ae. aegypti is characterized by long distance importations, while Ae. albopictus has expanded more along the fringes of its distribution. We describe these processes and predict the future distributions of both species in response to accelerating urbanization, connectivity and climate change. Global surveillance and control efforts that aim to mitigate the spread of chikungunya, dengue, yellow fever and Zika viruses must consider the so far unabated spread of these mosquitos. Our maps and predictions offer an opportunity to strategically target surveillance and control programmes and thereby augment efforts to reduce arbovirus burden in human populations globally.
Published: 2019

7. The current and future global distribution and population at risk of dengue

Author: Messina, JP, Brady, OJ, Golding, N, Kraemer, MUG, Wint, GRW, Ray, SE, Pigott, DM, Shearer, FM, Johnson, K, Earl, L, Marczak, LB, Shirude, S, Weaver, ND, Gilbert, M, Velayudhan, R, Jones, P, Jaenisch, T, Scott, TW, Reiner, RC, Hay, S, Messina, JP, Brady, OJ, Golding, N, Kraemer, MUG, Wint, GRW, Ray, SE, Pigott, DM, Shearer, FM, Johnson, K, Earl, L, Marczak, LB, Shirude, S, Weaver, ND, Gilbert, M, Velayudhan, R, Jones, P, Jaenisch, T, Scott, TW, Reiner, RC, and Hay, S
Abstract: Dengue is a mosquito-borne viral infection that has spread throughout the tropical world over the past 60 years and now affects over half the world's population. The geographical range of dengue is expected to further expand due to ongoing global phenomena including climate change and urbanization. We applied statistical mapping techniques to the most extensive database of case locations to date to predict global environmental suitability for the virus as of 2015. We then made use of climate, population and socioeconomic projections for the years 2020, 2050 and 2080 to project future changes in virus suitability and human population at risk. This study is the first to consider the spread of Aedes mosquito vectors to project dengue suitability. Our projections provide a key missing piece of evidence for the changing global threat of vector-borne disease and will help decision-makers worldwide to better prepare for and respond to future changes in dengue risk.
Published: 2019

8. Global Mortality From Firearms, 1990-2016

Author: Global Burden of Disease 2016 Injury Collaborators, Naghavi M, Marczak LB, Kutz M, Shackelford KA, Arora M, Miller-Petrie M, Aichour MTE, Akseer N, Al-Raddadi RM, Alam K, Alghnam SA, Antonio CAT, Aremu O, Arora A, Asadi-Lari M, Assadi R, Atey TM, Avila-Burgos L, Awasthi A, Ayala Quintanilla BP, Barker-Collo SL, Bärnighausen TW, Bazargan-Hejazi S, Behzadifar M, Bennett JR, Bhalla A, Bhutta ZA, Bilal AI, Borges G, Borschmann R, Brazinova A, Campuzano Rincon JC, Carvalho F, Castañeda-Orjuela CA, Dandona L, Dandona R, Dargan PI, De Leo D, Dharmaratne SD, Ding EL, Phuc Do H, Doku DT, Doyle KE, Driscoll TR, Edessa D, El-Khatib Z, Endries AY, Esteghamati A, Faro A, Farzadfar F, Feigin VL, Fischer F, Foreman KJ, Franklin RC, Fullman N, Futran ND, Gebrehiwot TT, Gutiérrez RA, Hafezi-Nejad N, Haghparast Bidgoli H, Hailu GB, Haro JM, Hassen HY, Hawley C, Hendrie D, Híjar M, Hu G, Ilesanmi OS, Jakovljevic M, James SL, Jayaraman S, Jonas JB, Kahsay A, Kasaeian A, Keiyoro PN, Khader Y, Khalil IA, Khang YH, Khubchandani J, Ahmad Kiadaliri A, Kieling C, Kim YJ, Kosen S, Krohn KJ, Kumar GA, Lami FH, Lansingh VC, Larson HJ, Linn S, Lunevicius R, Magdy Abd El Razek H, Magdy Abd El Razek M, Malekzadeh R, Carvalho Malta D, Mason-Jones AJ, Matzopoulos R, Memiah PTN, Mendoza W, Meretoja TJ, Mezgebe HB, Miller TR, Mohammed S, Moradi-Lakeh M, Mori R, Nand D, Tat Nguyen C, Le Nguyen Q, Ningrum DNA, Akpojene Ogbo F, Olagunju AT, Patton GC, Phillips MR, Polinder S, Pourmalek F, Qorbani M, Rahimi-Movaghar A, Rahimi-Movaghar V, Rahman M, Rai RK, Ranabhat CL, Rawaf DL, Rawaf S, Rowhani-Rahbar A, Safdarian M, Safiri S, Sagar R, Salama JS, Sanabria J, Santric Milicevic MM, Sarmiento-Suárez R, Sartorius B, Satpathy M, Schwebel DC, Seedat S, Sepanlou SG, Shaikh MA, Sharew NT, Shiue I, Singh JA, Sisay M, Skirbekk V, Soares Filho AM, Stein DJ, Stokes MA, Sufiyan MB, Swaroop M, Sykes BL, Tabarés-Seisdedos R, Tadese F, Tran BX, Thanh Tran T, Ukwaja KN, Vasankari TJ, Vlassov V, Werdecker A, Ye P, Yip P, Yonemoto N, Younis MZ, Zaidi Z, El Sayed Zaki M, Hay SI, Lim SS, Lopez AD, Mokdad AH, Vos T, and Murray CJL
Abstract: IMPORTANCE: Understanding global variation in firearm mortality rates could guide prevention policies and interventions. OBJECTIVE: To estimate mortality due to firearm injury deaths from 1990 to 2016 in 195 countries and territories. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS: This study used deidentified aggregated data including 13?812 location-years of vital registration data to generate estimates of levels and rates of death by age-sex-year-location. The proportion of suicides in which a firearm was the lethal means was combined with an estimate of per capita gun ownership in a revised proxy measure used to evaluate the relationship between availability or access to firearms and firearm injury deaths. EXPOSURES: Firearm ownership and access. MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES: Cause-specific deaths by age, sex, location, and year. RESULTS: Worldwide, it was estimated that 251?000 (95% uncertainty interval [UI], 195?000-276?000) people died from firearm injuries in 2016, with 6 countries (Brazil, United States, Mexico, Colombia, Venezuela, and Guatemala) accounting for 50.5% (95% UI, 42.2%-54.8%) of those deaths. In 1990, there were an estimated 209?000 (95% UI, 172?000 to 235?000) deaths from firearm injuries. Globally, the majority of firearm injury deaths in 2016 were homicides (64.0% [95% UI, 54.2%-68.0%]; absolute value, 161?000 deaths [95% UI, 107?000-182?000]); additionally, 27% were firearm suicide deaths (67?500 [95% UI, 55?400-84?100]) and 9% were unintentional firearm deaths (23?000 [95% UI, 18?200-24?800]). From 1990 to 2016, there was no significant decrease in the estimated global age-standardized firearm homicide rate (-0.2% [95% UI, -0.8% to 0.2%]). Firearm suicide rates decreased globally at an annualized rate of 1.6% (95% UI, 1.1-2.0), but in 124 of 195 countries and territories included in this study, these levels were either constant or significant increases were estimated. There was an annualized decrease of 0.9% (95% UI, 0.5%-1.3%) in the global rate of age-standardized firearm deaths from 1990 to 2016. Aggregate firearm injury deaths in 2016 were highest among persons aged 20 to 24 years (for men, an estimated 34?700 deaths [95% UI, 24?900-39?700] and for women, an estimated 3580 deaths [95% UI, 2810-4210]). Estimates of the number of firearms by country were associated with higher rates of firearm suicide (P < .001; R2 = 0.21) and homicide (P < .001; R2 = 0.35). CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE: This study estimated between 195?000 and 276?000 firearm injury deaths globally in 2016, the majority of which were firearm homicides. Despite an overall decrease in rates of firearm injury death since 1990, there was variation among countries and across demographic subgroups.
Published: 2018

9. Global mortality from firearms, 1990-2016

Author: Naghavi, M, Marczak, LB, Kutz, M, Shackelford, KA, Arora, M, Miller-Petrie, M, Aichour, MTE, Akseer, N, Al-Raddadi, RM, Alam, K, Alghnam, SA, Antonio, CAT, Aremu, O, Arora, A, Asadi-Lari, M, Assadi, R, Atey, TM, Avila-Burgos, L, Awasthi, A, Ayala Quintanilla, BP, Barker-Collo, SL, Bärnighausen, TW, Bazargan-Hejazi, S, Behzadifar, M, Bennett, JR, Bhalla, A, Bhutta, ZA, Bilal, AI, Borges, G, Borschmann, R, Brazinova, A, Campuzano Rincon, JC, Carvalho, F, Castañeda-Orjuela, CA, Dandona, L, Dandona, R, Dargan, PI, De Leo, D, Dharmaratne, SD, Ding, EL, Phuc Do, H, Doku, DT, Doyle, KE, Driscoll, TR, Edessa, D, El-Khatib, Z, Endries, AY, Esteghamati, A, Faro, A, Farzadfar, F, Feigin, VL, Fischer, F, Foreman, KJ, Franklin, RC, Fullman, N, Futran, ND, Gebrehiwot, TT, Gutiérrez, RA, Hafezi-Nejad, N, Haghparast Bidgoli, H, Hailu, GB, Haro, JM, Hassen, HY, Hawley, C, Hendrie, D, Híjar, M, Hu, G, Ilesanmi, OS, Jakovljevic, M, James, SL, Jayaraman, S, Jonas, JB, Kahsay, A, Kasaeian, A, Keiyoro, PN, Khader, Y, Khalil, IA, Khang, Y-H, Khubchandani, J, Ahmad Kiadaliri, A, Kieling, C, Kim, YJ, Kosen, S, Krohn, KJ, Kumar, GA, Lami, FH, Lansingh, VC, Larson, HJ, Linn, S, Lunevicius, R, Magdy Abd El Razek, H, Magdy Abd El Razek, M, Malekzadeh, R, Carvalho Malta, D, Mason-Jones, AJ, Matzopoulos, R, Memiah, PTN, Mendoza, W, Meretoja, TJ, Mezgebe, HB, Miller, TR, Mohammed, S, Moradi-Lakeh, M, Mori, R, Nand, D, Tat Nguyen, C, Le Nguyen, Q, Ningrum, DNA, Akpojene Ogbo, F, Olagunju, AT, Patton, GC, Phillips, MR, Polinder, S, Pourmalek, F, Qorbani, M, Rahimi-Movaghar, A, Rahimi-Movaghar, V, Rahman, M, Rai, RK, Ranabhat, CL, Rawaf, DL, Rawaf, S, Rowhani-Rahbar, A, Safdarian, M, Safiri, S, Sagar, R, Salama, JS, Sanabria, J, Santric Milicevic, MM, Sarmiento-Suárez, R, Sartorius, B, Satpathy, M, Schwebel, DC, Seedat, S, Sepanlou, SG, Shaikh, MA, Sharew, NT, Shiue, I, Singh, JA, Sisay, M, Skirbekk, V, Soares Filho, AM, Stein, DJ, Stokes, Mark Andrew, Sufiyan, MB, Swaroop, M, Sykes, BL, Tabarés-Seisdedos, R, Tadese, F, Tran, BX, Thanh Tran, T, Ukwaja, KN, Vasankari, TJ, Vlassov, V, Werdecker, A, Ye, P, Yip, P, Yonemoto, N, Younis, MZ, Zaidi, Z, El Sayed Zaki, M, Hay, SI, Lim, SS, Lopez, AD, Mokdad, AH, Vos, T, Murray, CJL, Naghavi, M, Marczak, LB, Kutz, M, Shackelford, KA, Arora, M, Miller-Petrie, M, Aichour, MTE, Akseer, N, Al-Raddadi, RM, Alam, K, Alghnam, SA, Antonio, CAT, Aremu, O, Arora, A, Asadi-Lari, M, Assadi, R, Atey, TM, Avila-Burgos, L, Awasthi, A, Ayala Quintanilla, BP, Barker-Collo, SL, Bärnighausen, TW, Bazargan-Hejazi, S, Behzadifar, M, Bennett, JR, Bhalla, A, Bhutta, ZA, Bilal, AI, Borges, G, Borschmann, R, Brazinova, A, Campuzano Rincon, JC, Carvalho, F, Castañeda-Orjuela, CA, Dandona, L, Dandona, R, Dargan, PI, De Leo, D, Dharmaratne, SD, Ding, EL, Phuc Do, H, Doku, DT, Doyle, KE, Driscoll, TR, Edessa, D, El-Khatib, Z, Endries, AY, Esteghamati, A, Faro, A, Farzadfar, F, Feigin, VL, Fischer, F, Foreman, KJ, Franklin, RC, Fullman, N, Futran, ND, Gebrehiwot, TT, Gutiérrez, RA, Hafezi-Nejad, N, Haghparast Bidgoli, H, Hailu, GB, Haro, JM, Hassen, HY, Hawley, C, Hendrie, D, Híjar, M, Hu, G, Ilesanmi, OS, Jakovljevic, M, James, SL, Jayaraman, S, Jonas, JB, Kahsay, A, Kasaeian, A, Keiyoro, PN, Khader, Y, Khalil, IA, Khang, Y-H, Khubchandani, J, Ahmad Kiadaliri, A, Kieling, C, Kim, YJ, Kosen, S, Krohn, KJ, Kumar, GA, Lami, FH, Lansingh, VC, Larson, HJ, Linn, S, Lunevicius, R, Magdy Abd El Razek, H, Magdy Abd El Razek, M, Malekzadeh, R, Carvalho Malta, D, Mason-Jones, AJ, Matzopoulos, R, Memiah, PTN, Mendoza, W, Meretoja, TJ, Mezgebe, HB, Miller, TR, Mohammed, S, Moradi-Lakeh, M, Mori, R, Nand, D, Tat Nguyen, C, Le Nguyen, Q, Ningrum, DNA, Akpojene Ogbo, F, Olagunju, AT, Patton, GC, Phillips, MR, Polinder, S, Pourmalek, F, Qorbani, M, Rahimi-Movaghar, A, Rahimi-Movaghar, V, Rahman, M, Rai, RK, Ranabhat, CL, Rawaf, DL, Rawaf, S, Rowhani-Rahbar, A, Safdarian, M, Safiri, S, Sagar, R, Salama, JS, Sanabria, J, Santric Milicevic, MM, Sarmiento-Suárez, R, Sartorius, B, Satpathy, M, Schwebel, DC, Seedat, S, Sepanlou, SG, Shaikh, MA, Sharew, NT, Shiue, I, Singh, JA, Sisay, M, Skirbekk, V, Soares Filho, AM, Stein, DJ, Stokes, Mark Andrew, Sufiyan, MB, Swaroop, M, Sykes, BL, Tabarés-Seisdedos, R, Tadese, F, Tran, BX, Thanh Tran, T, Ukwaja, KN, Vasankari, TJ, Vlassov, V, Werdecker, A, Ye, P, Yip, P, Yonemoto, N, Younis, MZ, Zaidi, Z, El Sayed Zaki, M, Hay, SI, Lim, SS, Lopez, AD, Mokdad, AH, Vos, T, and Murray, CJL
Published: 2018

10. Global, regional, and national under-5 mortality, adult mortality, age-specific mortality, and life expectancy, 1970-2016: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016

Author: Wang, H, Abajobir, AA, Abate, KH, Abbafati, C, Abbas, KM, Abd-Allah, F, Abera, SF, Abraha, HN, Abu-Raddad, LJ, Abu-Rmeileh, NME, Adedeji, IA, Adedoyin, RA, Adetifa, IMO, Adetokunboh, O, Afshin, A, Aggarwal, R, Agrawal, A, Agrawal, S, Kiadaliri, AA, Ahmed, MB, Aichour, AN, Aichour, I, Aichour, MTE, Aiyar, S, Akanda, S, Akinyemiju, TF, Akseer, N, Al-Eyadhy, A, Al Lami, FH, Alabed, S, Alahdab, F, Al-Aly, Z, Alam, K, Alam, N, Alasfoor, D, Aldridge, RW, Alene, KA, Alhabib, S, Ali, R, Alizadeh-Navaei, R, Aljunid, SM, Alkaabi, JM, Alkerwi, A, Alla, F, Allam, SD, Allebeck, P, Al-Raddadi, R, Alsharif, U, Altirkawi, KA, Martin, EA, Alvis-Guzman, N, Amare, AT, Ameh, EA, Amini, E, Ammar, W, Amoako, YA, Anber, N, Andrei, CL, Androudi, S, Ansari, H, Ansha, MG, Antonio, CAT, Anwari, P, Arnlov, J, Arora, M, Al, A, Aryal, KK, Asayesh, H, Asgedom, SW, Asghar, RJ, Assadi, R, Atey, TM, Atre, SR, Avila-Burgos, L, Avokpaho, EFGA, Awasthi, A, Quintanilla, BPA, Babalola, TK, Bacha, U, Badawi, A, Balakrishnan, K, Balalla, S, Barac, A, Barber, RM, Barboza, MA, Barker-Collo, SL, Barnighausen, T, Barquera, S, Barregard, L, Barrero, LH, Baune, BT, Bazargan-Hejazi, S, Bedi, N, Beghi, E, Bejot, Y, Bekele, BB, Bell, ML, Bello, AK, Bennett, DA, Bennett, JR, Bensenor, IM, Benson, J, Berhane, A, Berhe, DF, Bernabe, E, Beuran, M, Beyene, AS, Bhala, N, Bhansali, A, Bhaumik, S, Bhutta, ZA, Bikbov, B, Birungi, C, Biryukov, S, Bisanzio, D, Bizuayehu, HM, Bjerregaard, P, Blosser, CD, Boneya, DJ, Boufous, S, Bourne, RRA, Brazinova, A, Breitborde, NJK, Brenner, H, Brugha, TS, Bukhman, G, Negesa, L, Bulto, B, Bumgarner, BR, Burch, M, Butt, ZA, Cahill, LE, Cahuana-Hurtado, L, Campos-Nonato, IR, Car, J, Car, M, Crdenas, R, Carpenter, DO, Carrero, JJ, Carter, A, Castaneda-Orjuela, CA, Rivas, JC, Castro, FF, Castro, RE, Catala-Lopez, F, Chen, H, Chiang, PP-C, Chibalabala, M, Chisumpa, VH, Chitheer, AA, Choi, J-YJ, Christensen, H, Christopher, DJ, Ciobanu, LG, Cirillo, M, Cohen, AJ, Colquhoun, SM, Coresh, J, Criqui, MH, Cromwell, EA, Crump, JA, Dandona, L, Dandona, R, Dargan, PI, das Neves, J, Davey, G, Davitoiu, DV, Davletov, K, de Courten, B, De Leo, D, Degenhardt, L, Deiparine, S, Dellavalle, RP, Deribe, K, Deribew, A, Des Jarlais, DC, Dey, S, Dharmaratne, SD, Dherani, MK, Diaz-Torne, C, Ding, EL, Dixit, P, Djalalinia, S, Huyen, PD, Doku, DT, Donnelly, CA, Priscila, K, dos Santos, B, Douwes-Schultz, D, Driscoll, TR, Duan, L, Dubey, M, Duncan, BB, Dwivedi, LK, Ebrahimi, H, El Bcheraoui, C, Ellingsen, CL, Enayati, A, Endries, AY, Ermakov, SP, Eshetie, S, Eshrati, B, Eskandarieh, S, Esteghamati, A, Estep, K, Fanuel, BBF, Faro, A, Farvid, MS, Farzadfar, F, Feigin, VL, Fereshtehnejad, S-M, Fernandes, JG, Fernandes, JC, Feyissa, TR, Filip, I, Fischer, F, Foigt, N, Foreman, KJ, Frank, T, Franklin, RC, Fraser, M, Friedman, J, Frostad, JJ, Fullman, N, Furst, T, Furtado, JM, Futran, ND, Gakidou, E, Gambashidze, K, Gamkrelidze, A, Gankpe, FG, Garcia-Basteiro, AL, Gebregergs, GB, Gebrehiwot, TT, Gebrekidan, KG, Gebremichael, MW, Gelaye, AA, Geleijnse, JM, Gemechu, BL, Gemechu, KS, Genova-Maleras, R, Gesesew, HA, Gething, PW, Gibney, KB, Gill, PS, Gillum, RF, Giref, AZ, Girma, BW, Giussani, G, Goenka, S, Gomez, B, Gona, PN, Gopalani, SV, Goulart, AC, Graetz, N, Gugnani, HC, Gupta, PC, Gupta, R, Gupta, T, Gupta, V, Haagsma, JA, Hafezi-Nejad, N, Bidgoli, HH, Hakuzimana, A, Halasa, YA, Hamadeh, RR, Hambisa, MT, Hamidi, S, Hammami, M, Hancock, J, Handal, AJ, Hankey, GJ, Hao, Y, Harb, HL, Hareri, HA, Harikrishnan, S, Haro, JM, Hassanvand, MS, Havmoeller, R, Hay, RJ, Hay, SI, He, F, Heredia-Pi, IB, Herteliu, C, Hilawe, EH, Hoek, HW, Horita, N, Hosgood, HD, Hostiuc, S, Hotez, PJ, Hoy, DG, Hsairi, M, Htet, AS, Hu, G, Huang, H, Huang, JJ, Iburg, KM, Igumbor, EU, Ileanu, BV, Inoue, M, Irenso, AA, Irvine, CMS, Islam, N, Jacobsen, KH, Jaenisch, T, Jahanmehr, N, Jakovljevic, MB, Javanbakht, M, Jayatilleke, AU, Jeemon, P, Jensen, PN, Jha, V, Jin, Y, John, D, John, O, Johnson, SC, Jonas, JB, Jurisson, M, Kabir, Z, Kadel, R, Kahsay, A, Kalkonde, Y, Kamal, R, Kan, H, Karch, A, Karema, CK, Karimi, SM, Karthikeyan, G, Kasaeian, A, Kassaw, NA, Kassebaum, NJ, Kastor, A, Katikireddi, SV, Kaul, A, Kawakami, N, Kazanjan, K, Keiyoro, PN, Kelbore, SG, Kemp, AH, Kengne, AP, Keren, A, Kereselidze, M, Kesavachandran, CN, Ketema, EB, Khader, YS, Khalil, IA, Khan, EA, Khan, G, Khang, Y-H, Khera, S, Khoja, ATA, Khosravi, MH, Kibret, GD, Kieling, C, Kim, C-I, Kim, D, Kim, P, Kim, S, Kim, YJ, Kimokoti, RW, Kinfu, Y, Kishawi, S, Kissimova-Skarbek, KA, Kissoon, N, Kivimaki, M, Knudsen, AK, Kokubo, Y, Kopec, JA, Kosen, S, Koul, PA, Koyanagi, A, Kravchenko, M, Krohn, KJ, Defo, BK, Bicer, BK, Kuipers, EJ, Kulikoff, XR, Kulkarni, VS, Kumar, GA, Kumar, P, Kumsa, FA, Kutz, M, Lachat, C, Lagat, AK, Lager, ACJ, Lal, DK, Lalloo, R, Lambert, N, Lan, Q, Lansingh, VC, Larson, HJ, Larsson, A, Laryea, DO, Lavados, PM, Laxmaiah, A, Lee, PH, Leigh, J, Leung, J, Leung, R, Levi, M, Li, Y, Liao, Y, Liben, ML, Lim, SS, Linn, S, Lipshultz, SE, Liu, S, Lodha, R, Logroscino, G, Lorch, SA, Lorkowski, S, Lotufo, PA, Lozano, R, Lunevicius, R, Lyons, RA, Ma, S, Macarayan, ERK, Machado, IE, Mackay, MT, Abd el Razek, MM, Magis-Rodriguez, C, Mahdavi, M, Majdan, M, Majdzadeh, R, Majeed, A, Malekzadeh, R, Malhotra, R, Malta, DC, Mantovani, LG, Manyazewal, T, Mapoma, CC, Marczak, LB, Marks, GB, Martinez-Raga, J, Martins-Melo, FR, Massano, J, Maulik, PK, Mayosi, BM, Mazidi, M, McAlinden, C, McGarvey, ST, McGrath, JJ, Mckee, M, Mehata, S, Mehndiratta, MM, Mehta, KM, Meier, T, Mekonnen, TC, Meles, KG, Memiah, P, Memish, ZA, Mendoza, W, Mengesha, MM, Mengistie, MA, Tadese, D, Menon, MGR, Menota, BG, Mensah, GA, Meretoja, A, Meretoja, TJ, Mezgebe, HB, Micha, R, Mikesell, J, Miller, TR, Mills, EJ, Minnig, S, Mirarefin, M, Mirrakhimov, EM, Misganaw, A, Mishra, SR, Mohammad, KA, Mohammadi, A, Mohammed, KESM, Mohan, MBV, Mohanty, SK, Mokdad, AH, Assaye, AM, Mollenkopf, SK, Molokhia, M, Monasta, L, Hernandez, JCM, Montico, M, Mooney, MD, Moore, AR, Moradi-Lakeh, M, Moraga, P, Morawska, L, Velasquez, IM, Mori, R, Morrison, SD, Mruts, KB, Mueller, UO, Mullany, E, Muller, K, Venkata, G, Murthy, S, Musa, KI, Nachega, JB, Nagata, C, Nagel, G, Naghavi, M, Naidoo, KS, Nanda, L, Nangia, V, Nascimento, BR, Natarajan, G, Negoi, I, Cuong, TN, Ningrum, DNA, Nisar, MI, Nomura, M, Vuong, MN, Norheim, OF, Norrving, B, Noubiap, JJN, Nyakarahuka, L, Obermeyer, CM, O'Donnell, MJ, Ogbo, FA, Oh, I-H, Okoro, A, Oladimeji, O, Olagunju, AT, Olusanya, BO, Olusanya, JO, Oren, E, Ortiz, A, Osgood-Zimmerman, A, Ota, E, Owolabi, MO, Oyekale, AS, Pa, M, Pacella, RE, Pakhale, S, Pana, A, Panda, BK, Panda-Jonas, S, Park, E-K, Parsaeian, M, Patel, T, Patten, SB, Patton, GC, Paudel, D, Pereira, DM, Perez-Padilla, R, Perez-Ruiz, F, Perico, N, Pervaiz, A, Pesudovs, K, Peterson, CB, Petri, WA, Petzold, M, Phillips, MR, Piel, FB, Pigott, DM, Pishgar, F, Plass, D, Polinder, S, Popova, S, Postma, MJ, Poulton, RG, Pourmalek, F, Prasad, N, Purwar, M, Qorbani, M, Rabiee, RHS, Radfar, A, Rafay, A, Rahimi-Movaghar, A, Rahimi-Movaghar, V, Rahman, M, Rahman, MHU, Rahman, SU, Rai, RK, Rajsic, S, Ram, U, Rana, SM, Ranabhat, CL, Rao, PV, Rawaf, S, Ray, SE, Rego, MAS, Rehm, J, Reiner, RC, Remuzzi, G, Renzaho, AMNN, Resnikoff, S, Rezaei, S, Rezai, MS, Ribeiro, AL, Rokni, MB, Ronfani, L, Roshandel, G, Roth, GA, Rothenbacher, D, Roy, A, Rubagotti, E, Ruhago, GM, Saadat, S, Sabde, YD, Sachdev, PS, Sadat, N, Safdarian, M, Safiri, SSS, Sagar, R, Sahathevan, R, Sahebkar, A, Sahraian, MA, Salama, J, Salamati, P, Salomon, JA, Salvi, SS, Samy, AM, Sanabria, JR, Sanchez-Nino, MD, Santos, IS, Milicevic, MMS, Sarmiento-Suarez, R, Sartorius, B, Satpathy, M, Sawhney, M, Saxena, S, Saylan, MI, Schmidt, MI, Schneider, IJC, Schutte, AE, Schwebel, DC, Schwendicke, F, Seedat, S, Seid, AM, Sepanlou, SG, Servan-Mori, EE, Shackelford, KA, Shaheen, A, Shahraz, S, Shaikh, MA, Shamsipour, M, Shamsizadeh, M, Islam, SMS, Sharma, J, 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PC, Gupta, R, Gupta, T, Gupta, V, Haagsma, JA, Hafezi-Nejad, N, Bidgoli, HH, Hakuzimana, A, Halasa, YA, Hamadeh, RR, Hambisa, MT, Hamidi, S, Hammami, M, Hancock, J, Handal, AJ, Hankey, GJ, Hao, Y, Harb, HL, Hareri, HA, Harikrishnan, S, Haro, JM, Hassanvand, MS, Havmoeller, R, Hay, RJ, Hay, SI, He, F, Heredia-Pi, IB, Herteliu, C, Hilawe, EH, Hoek, HW, Horita, N, Hosgood, HD, Hostiuc, S, Hotez, PJ, Hoy, DG, Hsairi, M, Htet, AS, Hu, G, Huang, H, Huang, JJ, Iburg, KM, Igumbor, EU, Ileanu, BV, Inoue, M, Irenso, AA, Irvine, CMS, Islam, N, Jacobsen, KH, Jaenisch, T, Jahanmehr, N, Jakovljevic, MB, Javanbakht, M, Jayatilleke, AU, Jeemon, P, Jensen, PN, Jha, V, Jin, Y, John, D, John, O, Johnson, SC, Jonas, JB, Jurisson, M, Kabir, Z, Kadel, R, Kahsay, A, Kalkonde, Y, Kamal, R, Kan, H, Karch, A, Karema, CK, Karimi, SM, Karthikeyan, G, Kasaeian, A, Kassaw, NA, Kassebaum, NJ, Kastor, A, Katikireddi, SV, Kaul, A, Kawakami, N, Kazanjan, K, Keiyoro, PN, Kelbore, SG, Kemp, AH, Kengne, AP, Keren, A, Kereselidze, M, Kesavachandran, CN, Ketema, EB, Khader, YS, Khalil, IA, Khan, EA, Khan, G, Khang, Y-H, Khera, S, Khoja, ATA, Khosravi, MH, Kibret, GD, Kieling, C, Kim, C-I, Kim, D, Kim, P, Kim, S, Kim, YJ, Kimokoti, RW, Kinfu, Y, Kishawi, S, Kissimova-Skarbek, KA, Kissoon, N, Kivimaki, M, Knudsen, AK, Kokubo, Y, Kopec, JA, Kosen, S, Koul, PA, Koyanagi, A, Kravchenko, M, Krohn, KJ, Defo, BK, Bicer, BK, Kuipers, EJ, Kulikoff, XR, Kulkarni, VS, Kumar, GA, Kumar, P, Kumsa, FA, Kutz, M, Lachat, C, Lagat, AK, Lager, ACJ, Lal, DK, Lalloo, R, Lambert, N, Lan, Q, Lansingh, VC, Larson, HJ, Larsson, A, Laryea, DO, Lavados, PM, Laxmaiah, A, Lee, PH, Leigh, J, Leung, J, Leung, R, Levi, M, Li, Y, Liao, Y, Liben, ML, Lim, SS, Linn, S, Lipshultz, SE, Liu, S, Lodha, R, Logroscino, G, Lorch, SA, Lorkowski, S, Lotufo, PA, Lozano, R, Lunevicius, R, Lyons, RA, Ma, S, Macarayan, ERK, Machado, IE, Mackay, MT, Abd el Razek, MM, Magis-Rodriguez, C, Mahdavi, M, Majdan, M, Majdzadeh, R, Majeed, A, Malekzadeh, R, Malhotra, R, Malta, DC, Mantovani, LG, Manyazewal, T, Mapoma, CC, Marczak, LB, Marks, GB, Martinez-Raga, J, Martins-Melo, FR, Massano, J, Maulik, PK, Mayosi, BM, Mazidi, M, McAlinden, C, McGarvey, ST, McGrath, JJ, Mckee, M, Mehata, S, Mehndiratta, MM, Mehta, KM, Meier, T, Mekonnen, TC, Meles, KG, Memiah, P, Memish, ZA, Mendoza, W, Mengesha, MM, Mengistie, MA, Tadese, D, Menon, MGR, Menota, BG, Mensah, GA, Meretoja, A, Meretoja, TJ, Mezgebe, HB, Micha, R, Mikesell, J, Miller, TR, Mills, EJ, Minnig, S, Mirarefin, M, Mirrakhimov, EM, Misganaw, A, Mishra, SR, Mohammad, KA, Mohammadi, A, Mohammed, KESM, Mohan, MBV, Mohanty, SK, Mokdad, AH, Assaye, AM, Mollenkopf, SK, Molokhia, M, Monasta, L, Hernandez, JCM, Montico, M, Mooney, MD, Moore, AR, Moradi-Lakeh, M, Moraga, P, Morawska, L, Velasquez, IM, Mori, R, Morrison, SD, Mruts, KB, Mueller, UO, Mullany, E, Muller, K, Venkata, G, Murthy, S, Musa, KI, Nachega, JB, Nagata, C, Nagel, G, Naghavi, M, Naidoo, KS, Nanda, L, Nangia, V, Nascimento, BR, Natarajan, G, Negoi, I, Cuong, TN, Ningrum, DNA, Nisar, MI, Nomura, M, Vuong, MN, Norheim, OF, Norrving, B, Noubiap, JJN, Nyakarahuka, L, Obermeyer, CM, O'Donnell, MJ, Ogbo, FA, Oh, I-H, Okoro, A, Oladimeji, O, Olagunju, AT, Olusanya, BO, Olusanya, JO, Oren, E, Ortiz, A, Osgood-Zimmerman, A, Ota, E, Owolabi, MO, Oyekale, AS, Pa, M, Pacella, RE, Pakhale, S, Pana, A, Panda, BK, Panda-Jonas, S, Park, E-K, Parsaeian, M, Patel, T, Patten, SB, Patton, GC, Paudel, D, Pereira, DM, Perez-Padilla, R, Perez-Ruiz, F, Perico, N, Pervaiz, A, Pesudovs, K, Peterson, CB, Petri, WA, Petzold, M, Phillips, MR, Piel, FB, Pigott, DM, Pishgar, F, Plass, D, Polinder, S, Popova, S, Postma, MJ, Poulton, RG, Pourmalek, F, Prasad, N, Purwar, M, Qorbani, M, Rabiee, RHS, Radfar, A, Rafay, A, Rahimi-Movaghar, A, Rahimi-Movaghar, V, Rahman, M, Rahman, MHU, Rahman, SU, Rai, RK, Rajsic, S, Ram, U, Rana, SM, Ranabhat, CL, Rao, PV, Rawaf, S, Ray, SE, Rego, MAS, Rehm, J, Reiner, RC, Remuzzi, G, Renzaho, AMNN, Resnikoff, S, Rezaei, S, Rezai, MS, Ribeiro, AL, Rokni, MB, Ronfani, L, Roshandel, G, Roth, GA, Rothenbacher, D, Roy, A, Rubagotti, E, Ruhago, GM, Saadat, S, Sabde, YD, Sachdev, PS, Sadat, N, Safdarian, M, Safiri, SSS, Sagar, R, Sahathevan, R, Sahebkar, A, Sahraian, MA, Salama, J, Salamati, P, Salomon, JA, Salvi, SS, Samy, AM, Sanabria, JR, Sanchez-Nino, MD, Santos, IS, Milicevic, MMS, Sarmiento-Suarez, R, Sartorius, B, Satpathy, M, Sawhney, M, Saxena, S, Saylan, MI, Schmidt, MI, Schneider, IJC, Schutte, AE, Schwebel, DC, Schwendicke, F, Seedat, S, Seid, AM, Sepanlou, SG, Servan-Mori, EE, Shackelford, KA, Shaheen, A, Shahraz, S, Shaikh, MA, Shamsipour, M, Shamsizadeh, M, Islam, SMS, Sharma, J, Sharma, R, She, J, Shen, J, Shetty, BP, Shi, P, Shibuya, K, Shigematsu, M, Shiri, R, Shiue, I, Shrime, MG, Sigfusdottir, ID, Silberberg, DH, Silpakit, N, Silva, DAS, Silva, JP, Silveira, DGA, Sindi, S, Singh, A, Singh, JA, Singh, PK, Singh, V, Sinha, DN, Skiadaresi, E, Sligar, A, Smith, DL, Sobaih, BHA, Sobngwi, E, Soneji, S, Soriano, JB, Sreeramareddy, CT, Srinivasan, V, Stathopoulou, V, Steel, N, Stein, DJ, Steiner, C, Stockl, H, Stokes, MA, Strong, M, Sufiyan, MB, Suliankatchi, RA, Sunguya, BF, Sur, PJ, Swaminathan, S, Sykes, BL, Szoeke, CEI, Tabares-Seisdedos, R, Tadakamadla, SK, Tadese, F, Tandon, N, Tanne, D, Tarajia, M, Tavakkoli, M, Taveira, N, Tehrani-Banihashemi, A, Tekelab, T, Tekle, DY, Shifa, GT, Temsah, M-H, Terkawi, AS, Tesema, CL, Tesssema, B, Theis, A, Thomas, N, Thompson, AH, Thomson, AJ, Thrift, AG, Tiruye, TY, Tobe-Gai, R, Tonelli, M, Topor-Madry, R, Topouzis, F, Tortajada, M, Tran, BX, Trujillo, TTU, Tsilimparis, N, Tuem, KB, Tuzcu, EM, Tyrovolas, S, Ukwaja, KN, Undurraga, EA, Uthman, OA, Uzochukwu, BSC, van Boven, JFM, Varakin, YY, Varughese, S, Vasankari, T, Vasconcelos, AMN, Venketasubramanian, N, Vidavalur, R, Violante, FS, Vishnu, A, Vladimirov, SK, Vlassov, VV, Vollset, SE, Vos, T, Waid, JL, Wakayo, T, Wang, Y-P, Weichenthal, S, Weiderpass, E, Weintraub, RG, Werdecker, A, Wesana, J, Wijeratne, T, Wilkinson, JD, Wiysonge, CS, Woldeyes, BG, Wolfe, CDA, Workicho, A, Workie, SB, Xavier, D, Xu, G, Yaghoubi, M, Yakob, B, Yalew, AZ, Yan, LL, Yano, Y, Yaseri, M, Ye, P, Yimam, HH, Yip, P, Yirsaw, BD, Yonemoto, N, Yoon, S-J, Yotebieng, M, Younis, MZ, Zaidi, Z, Zaki, MES, Zeeb, H, Zenebe, ZM, Zerfu, TA, Zhang, AL, Zhang, X, Zodpey, S, Zuhlke, LJ, Lopez, AD, and Murray, CJL
Published: 2017

11. Health effects associated with consumption of unprocessed red meat: a Burden of Proof study.

Author: Lescinsky H, Afshin A, Ashbaugh C, Bisignano C, Brauer M, Ferrara G, Hay SI, He J, Iannucci V, Marczak LB, McLaughlin SA, Mullany EC, Parent MC, Serfes AL, Sorensen RJD, Aravkin AY, Zheng P, and Murray CJL
Subjects: Chronic Disease, Diet adverse effects, Humans, Meat adverse effects, Risk Factors, Diabetes Mellitus, Type 2 epidemiology, Diabetes Mellitus, Type 2 etiology, Red Meat adverse effects
Abstract: Characterizing the potential health effects of exposure to risk factors such as red meat consumption is essential to inform health policy and practice. Previous meta-analyses evaluating the effects of red meat intake have generated mixed findings and do not formally assess evidence strength. Here, we conducted a systematic review and implemented a meta-regression-relaxing conventional log-linearity assumptions and incorporating between-study heterogeneity-to evaluate the relationships between unprocessed red meat consumption and six potential health outcomes. We found weak evidence of association between unprocessed red meat consumption and colorectal cancer, breast cancer, type 2 diabetes and ischemic heart disease. Moreover, we found no evidence of an association between unprocessed red meat and ischemic stroke or hemorrhagic stroke. We also found that while risk for the six outcomes in our analysis combined was minimized at 0 g unprocessed red meat intake per day, the 95% uncertainty interval that incorporated between-study heterogeneity was very wide: from 0-200 g d -1 . While there is some evidence that eating unprocessed red meat is associated with increased risk of disease incidence and mortality, it is weak and insufficient to make stronger or more conclusive recommendations. More rigorous, well-powered research is needed to better understand and quantify the relationship between consumption of unprocessed red meat and chronic disease., (© 2022. The Author(s).)
Published: 2022
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12. Health effects associated with smoking: a Burden of Proof study.

Author: Dai X, Gil GF, Reitsma MB, Ahmad NS, Anderson JA, Bisignano C, Carr S, Feldman R, Hay SI, He J, Iannucci V, Lawlor HR, Malloy MJ, Marczak LB, McLaughlin SA, Morikawa L, Mullany EC, Nicholson SI, O'Connell EM, Okereke C, Sorensen RJD, Whisnant J, Aravkin AY, Zheng P, Murray CJL, and Gakidou E
Subjects: Research Design, Risk Factors, Smoking adverse effects, Smoking epidemiology, Smoking Cessation
Abstract: As a leading behavioral risk factor for numerous health outcomes, smoking is a major ongoing public health challenge. Although evidence on the health effects of smoking has been widely reported, few attempts have evaluated the dose-response relationship between smoking and a diverse range of health outcomes systematically and comprehensively. In the present study, we re-estimated the dose-response relationships between current smoking and 36 health outcomes by conducting systematic reviews up to 31 May 2022, employing a meta-analytic method that incorporates between-study heterogeneity into estimates of uncertainty. Among the 36 selected outcomes, 8 had strong-to-very-strong evidence of an association with smoking, 21 had weak-to-moderate evidence of association and 7 had no evidence of association. By overcoming many of the limitations of traditional meta-analyses, our approach provides comprehensive, up-to-date and easy-to-use estimates of the evidence on the health effects of smoking. These estimates provide important information for tobacco control advocates, policy makers, researchers, physicians, smokers and the public., (© 2022. The Author(s).)
Published: 2022
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13. Mobile Phone-Based Population Flow Data for the COVID-19 Outbreak in Mainland China.

Author: Lu X, Tan J, Cao Z, Xiong Y, Qin S, Wang T, Liu C, Huang S, Zhang W, Marczak LB, Hay SI, Thabane L, Guyatt GH, and Sun X
Abstract: Background: Human migration is one of the driving forces for amplifying localized infectious disease outbreaks into widespread epidemics. During the outbreak of COVID-19 in China, the travels of the population from Wuhan have furthered the spread of the virus as the period coincided with the world's largest population movement to celebrate the Chinese New Year., Methods: We have collected and made public an anonymous and aggregated mobility dataset extracted from mobile phones at the national level, describing the outflows of population travel from Wuhan. We evaluated the correlation between population movements and the virus spread by the dates when the number of diagnosed cases was documented., Results: From Jan 1 to Jan 22 of 2020, a total of 20.2 million movements of at-risk population occurred from Wuhan to other regions in China. A large proportion of these movements occurred within Hubei province (84.5%), and a substantial increase of travels was observed even before the beginning of the official Chinese Spring Festival Travel. The outbound flows from Wuhan before the lockdown were found strongly correlated with the number of diagnosed cases in the destination cities (log-transformed)., Conclusions: The regions with the highest volume of receiving at-risk populations were identified. The movements of the at-risk population were strongly associated with the virus spread. These results together with province-by-province reports have been provided to governmental authorities to aid policy decisions at both the state and provincial levels. We believe that the effort in making this data available is extremely important for COVID-19 modelling and prediction., Competing Interests: The authors declare that there is no conflict of interest regarding the publication of this article., (Copyright © 2021 Xin Lu et al.)
Published: 2021
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14. Prevalence and intensity of soil-transmitted helminth infections of children in sub-Saharan Africa, 2000-18: a geospatial analysis.

Author: Sartorius B, Cano J, Simpson H, Tusting LS, Marczak LB, Miller-Petrie MK, Kinvi B, Zoure H, Mwinzi P, Hay SI, Rebollo M, and Pullan RL
Subjects: Adolescent, Africa South of the Sahara epidemiology, Animals, Child, Child, Preschool, Female, Helminths, Humans, Male, Prevalence, Severity of Illness Index, Helminthiasis epidemiology, Soil parasitology, Spatial Analysis
Abstract: Background: Driven by global targets to eliminate soil-transmitted helminths as a public health problem, governments have rapidly rolled out control programmes using school and community-based platforms. To justify and target ongoing investment, quantification of impact and identification of remaining high-risk areas are needed. We aimed to assess regional progress towards these targets., Methods: We did a continental-scale ecological analysis using a Bayesian space-time hierarchical model to estimate the effects of known environmental, socioeconomic, and control-related factors on the prevalence of soil-transmitted helminths, and we mapped the probability that implementation units had achieved moderate-to-heavy intensity infection prevalence of less than 2% among children aged 5-14 years between Jan 1, 2000, and Dec 31, 2018., Findings: We incorporated data from 26 304 georeferenced surveys, spanning 3096 (60%) of the 5183 programmatic implementation units. Our findings suggest a reduction in the prevalence of soil-transmitted helminths in children aged 5-14 years in sub-Saharan Africa, from 44% in 2000 to 13% in 2018, driven by sustained delivery of preventive chemotherapy, improved sanitation, and economic development. Nevertheless, 1301 (25%) of 5183 implementation units still had an estimated prevalence of moderate-to-heavy intensity infection exceeding the 2% target threshold in 2018, largely concentrated in nine countries (in 1026 [79%] of 1301 implementation units): Nigeria, Democratic Republic of the Congo, Ethiopia, Cameroon, Angola, Mozambique, Madagascar, Equatorial Guinea, and Gabon., Interpretation: Our estimates highlight the areas to target and strengthen interventions, and the areas where data gaps remain. If elimination of soil-transmitted helminths as a public health problem is to be achieved in sub-Saharan Africa by 2030, continued investment in treatment and prevention activities are essential to ensure that no areas are left behind., Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation., (Copyright © 2021 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 license. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.)
Published: 2021
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15. Identifying residual hotspots and mapping lower respiratory infection morbidity and mortality in African children from 2000 to 2017.

Author: Reiner RC, Welgan CA, Casey DC, Troeger CE, Baumann MM, Nguyen QP, Swartz SJ, Blacker BF, Deshpande A, Mosser JF, Osgood-Zimmerman AE, Earl L, Marczak LB, Munro SB, Miller-Petrie MK, Rodgers Kemp G, Frostad J, Wiens KE, Lindstedt PA, Pigott DM, Dwyer-Lindgren L, Ross JM, Burstein R, Graetz N, Rao PC, Khalil IA, Davis Weaver N, Ray SE, Davis I, Farag T, Brady OJ, Kraemer MUG, Smith DL, Bhatt S, Weiss DJ, Gething PW, Kassebaum NJ, Mokdad AH, Murray CJL, and Hay SI
Subjects: Africa epidemiology, Bayes Theorem, Child, Preschool, Humans, Incidence, Infant, Infant, Newborn, Prevalence, Public Health standards, Risk Factors, Morbidity, Respiratory Tract Infections mortality
Abstract: Lower respiratory infections (LRIs) are the leading cause of death in children under the age of 5, despite the existence of vaccines against many of their aetiologies. Furthermore, more than half of these deaths occur in Africa. Geospatial models can provide highly detailed estimates of trends subnationally, at the level where implementation of health policies has the greatest impact. We used Bayesian geostatistical modelling to estimate LRI incidence, prevalence and mortality in children under 5 subnationally in Africa for 2000-2017, using surveys covering 1.46 million children and 9,215,000 cases of LRI. Our model reveals large within-country variation in both health burden and its change over time. While reductions in childhood morbidity and mortality due to LRI were estimated for almost every country, we expose a cluster of residual high risk across seven countries, which averages 5.5 LRI deaths per 1,000 children per year. The preventable nature of the vast majority of LRI deaths mandates focused health system efforts in specific locations with the highest burden.
Published: 2019
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16. Mapping 123 million neonatal, infant and child deaths between 2000 and 2017.

Author: Burstein R, Henry NJ, Collison ML, Marczak LB, Sligar A, Watson S, Marquez N, Abbasalizad-Farhangi M, Abbasi M, Abd-Allah F, Abdoli A, Abdollahi M, Abdollahpour I, Abdulkader RS, Abrigo MRM, Acharya D, Adebayo OM, Adekanmbi V, Adham D, Afshari M, Aghaali M, Ahmadi K, Ahmadi M, Ahmadpour E, Ahmed R, Akal CG, Akinyemi JO, Alahdab F, Alam N, Alamene GM, Alene KA, Alijanzadeh M, Alinia C, Alipour V, Aljunid SM, Almalki MJ, Al-Mekhlafi HM, Altirkawi K, Alvis-Guzman N, Amegah AK, Amini S, Amit AML, Anbari Z, Androudi S, Anjomshoa M, Ansari F, Antonio CAT, Arabloo J, Arefi Z, Aremu O, Armoon B, Arora A, Artaman A, Asadi A, Asadi-Aliabadi M, Ashraf-Ganjouei A, Assadi R, Ataeinia B, Atre SR, Quintanilla BPA, Ayanore MA, Azari S, Babaee E, Babazadeh A, Badawi A, Bagheri S, Bagherzadeh M, Baheiraei N, Balouchi A, Barac A, Bassat Q, Baune BT, Bayati M, Bedi N, Beghi E, Behzadifar M, Behzadifar M, Belay YB, Bell B, Bell ML, Berbada DA, Bernstein RS, Bhattacharjee NV, Bhattarai S, Bhutta ZA, Bijani A, Bohlouli S, Breitborde NJK, Britton G, Browne AJ, Nagaraja SB, Busse R, Butt ZA, Car J, Cárdenas R, Castañeda-Orjuela CA, Cerin E, Chanie WF, Chatterjee P, Chu DT, Cooper C, Costa VM, Dalal K, Dandona L, Dandona R, Daoud F, Daryani A, Das Gupta R, Davis I, Davis Weaver N, Davitoiu DV, De Neve JW, Demeke FM, Demoz GT, Deribe K, Desai R, Deshpande A, Desyibelew HD, Dey S, Dharmaratne SD, Dhimal M, Diaz D, Doshmangir L, Duraes AR, Dwyer-Lindgren L, Earl L, Ebrahimi R, Ebrahimpour S, Effiong A, Eftekhari A, Ehsani-Chimeh E, El Sayed I, El Sayed Zaki M, El Tantawi M, El-Khatib Z, Emamian MH, Enany S, Eskandarieh S, Eyawo O, Ezalarab M, Faramarzi M, Fareed M, Faridnia R, Faro A, Fazaeli AA, Fazlzadeh M, Fentahun N, Fereshtehnejad SM, Fernandes JC, Filip I, Fischer F, Foigt NA, Foroutan M, Francis JM, Fukumoto T, Fullman N, Gallus S, Gebre DG, Gebrehiwot TT, Gebremeskel GG, Gessner BD, Geta B, Gething PW, Ghadimi R, Ghadiri K, Ghajarzadeh M, Ghashghaee A, Gill PS, Gill TK, Golding N, Gomes NGM, Gona PN, Gopalani SV, Gorini G, Goulart BNG, Graetz N, Greaves F, Green MS, Guo Y, Haj-Mirzaian A, Haj-Mirzaian A, Hall BJ, Hamidi S, Haririan H, Haro JM, Hasankhani M, Hasanpoor E, Hasanzadeh A, Hassankhani H, Hassen HY, Hegazy MI, Hendrie D, Heydarpour F, Hird TR, Hoang CL, Hollerich G, Rad EH, Hoseini-Ghahfarokhi M, Hossain N, Hosseini M, Hosseinzadeh M, Hostiuc M, Hostiuc S, Househ M, Hsairi M, Ilesanmi OS, Imani-Nasab MH, Iqbal U, Irvani SSN, Islam N, Islam SMS, Jürisson M, Balalami NJ, Jalali A, Javidnia J, Jayatilleke AU, Jenabi E, Ji JS, Jobanputra YB, Johnson K, Jonas JB, Shushtari ZJ, Jozwiak JJ, Kabir A, Kahsay A, Kalani H, Kalhor R, Karami M, Karki S, Kasaeian A, Kassebaum NJ, Keiyoro PN, Kemp GR, Khabiri R, Khader YS, Khafaie MA, Khan EA, Khan J, Khan MS, Khang YH, Khatab K, Khater A, Khater MM, Khatony A, Khazaei M, Khazaei S, Khazaei-Pool M, Khubchandani J, Kianipour N, Kim YJ, Kimokoti RW, Kinyoki DK, Kisa A, Kisa S, Kolola T, Kosen S, Koul PA, Koyanagi A, Kraemer MUG, Krishan K, Krohn KJ, Kugbey N, Kumar GA, Kumar M, Kumar P, Kuupiel D, Lacey B, Lad SD, Lami FH, Larsson AO, Lee PH, Leili M, Levine AJ, Li S, Lim LL, Listl S, Longbottom J, Lopez JCF, Lorkowski S, Magdeldin S, Abd El Razek HM, Abd El Razek MM, Majeed A, Maleki A, Malekzadeh R, Malta DC, Mamun AA, Manafi N, Manda AL, Mansourian M, Martins-Melo FR, Masaka A, Massenburg BB, Maulik PK, Mayala BK, Mazidi M, McKee M, Mehrotra R, Mehta KM, Meles GG, Mendoza W, Menezes RG, Meretoja A, Meretoja TJ, Mestrovic T, Miller TR, Miller-Petrie MK, Mills EJ, Milne GJ, Mini GK, Mir SM, Mirjalali H, Mirrakhimov EM, Mohamadi E, Mohammad DK, Darwesh AM, Mezerji NMG, Mohammed AS, Mohammed S, Mokdad AH, Molokhia M, Monasta L, Moodley Y, Moosazadeh M, Moradi G, Moradi M, Moradi Y, Moradi-Lakeh M, Moradinazar M, Moraga P, Morawska L, Mosapour A, Mousavi SM, Mueller UO, Muluneh AG, Mustafa G, Nabavizadeh B, Naderi M, Nagarajan AJ, Nahvijou A, Najafi F, Nangia V, Ndwandwe DE, Neamati N, Negoi I, Negoi RI, Ngunjiri JW, Thi Nguyen HL, Nguyen LH, Nguyen SH, Nielsen KR, Ningrum DNA, Nirayo YL, Nixon MR, Nnaji CA, Nojomi M, Noroozi M, Nosratnejad S, Noubiap JJ, Motlagh SN, Ofori-Asenso R, Ogbo FA, Oladimeji KE, Olagunju AT, Olfatifar M, Olum S, Olusanya BO, Oluwasanu MM, Onwujekwe OE, Oren E, Ortega-Altamirano DDV, Ortiz A, Osarenotor O, Osei FB, Osgood-Zimmerman AE, Otstavnov SS, Owolabi MO, P A M, Pagheh AS, Pakhale S, Panda-Jonas S, Pandey A, Park EK, Parsian H, Pashaei T, Patel SK, Pepito VCF, Pereira A, Perkins S, Pickering BV, Pilgrim T, Pirestani M, Piroozi B, Pirsaheb M, Plana-Ripoll O, Pourjafar H, Puri P, Qorbani M, Quintana H, Rabiee M, Rabiee N, Radfar A, Rafiei A, Rahim F, Rahimi Z, Rahimi-Movaghar V, Rahimzadeh S, Rajati F, Raju SB, Ramezankhani A, Ranabhat CL, Rasella D, Rashedi V, Rawal L, Reiner RC Jr, Renzaho AMN, Rezaei S, Rezapour A, Riahi SM, Ribeiro AI, Roever L, Roro EM, Roser M, Roshandel G, Roshani D, Rostami A, Rubagotti E, Rubino S, Sabour S, Sadat N, Sadeghi E, Saeedi R, Safari Y, Safari-Faramani R, Safdarian M, Sahebkar A, Salahshoor MR, Salam N, Salamati P, Salehi F, Zahabi SS, Salimi Y, Salimzadeh H, Salomon JA, Sambala EZ, Samy AM, Santric Milicevic MM, Jose BPS, Saraswathy SYI, Sarmiento-Suárez R, Sartorius B, Sathian B, Saxena S, Sbarra AN, Schaeffer LE, Schwebel DC, Sepanlou SG, Seyedmousavi S, Shaahmadi F, Shaikh MA, Shams-Beyranvand M, Shamshirian A, Shamsizadeh M, Sharafi K, Sharif M, Sharif-Alhoseini M, Sharifi H, Sharma J, Sharma R, Sheikh A, Shields C, Shigematsu M, Shiri R, Shiue I, Shuval K, Siddiqi TJ, Silva JP, Singh JA, Sinha DN, Sisay MM, Sisay S, Sliwa K, Smith DL, Somayaji R, Soofi M, Soriano JB, Sreeramareddy CT, Sudaryanto A, Sufiyan MB, Sykes BL, Sylaja PN, Tabarés-Seisdedos R, Tabb KM, Tabuchi T, Taveira N, Temsah MH, Terkawi AS, Tessema ZT, Thankappan KR, Thirunavukkarasu S, To QG, Tovani-Palone MR, Tran BX, Tran KB, Ullah I, Usman MS, Uthman OA, Vahedian-Azimi A, Valdez PR, van Boven JFM, Vasankari TJ, Vasseghian Y, Veisani Y, Venketasubramanian N, Violante FS, Vladimirov SK, Vlassov V, Vos T, Vu GT, Vujcic IS, Waheed Y, Wakefield J, Wang H, Wang Y, Wang YP, Ward JL, Weintraub RG, Weldegwergs KG, Weldesamuel GT, Westerman R, Wiysonge CS, Wondafrash DZ, Woyczynski L, Wu AM, Xu G, Yadegar A, Yamada T, Yazdi-Feyzabadi V, Yilgwan CS, Yip P, Yonemoto N, Lebni JY, Younis MZ, Yousefifard M, Yousof HSA, Yu C, Yusefzadeh H, Zabeh E, Moghadam TZ, Bin Zaman S, Zamani M, Zandian H, Zangeneh A, Zerfu TA, Zhang Y, Ziapour A, Zodpey S, Murray CJL, and Hay SI
Subjects: Child, Geography, Global Health, Humans, Infant, Infant, Newborn, Organizational Objectives, Public Health, Socioeconomic Factors, United Nations, Child Mortality trends, Infant Mortality trends
Abstract: Since 2000, many countries have achieved considerable success in improving child survival, but localized progress remains unclear. To inform efforts towards United Nations Sustainable Development Goal 3.2-to end preventable child deaths by 2030-we need consistently estimated data at the subnational level regarding child mortality rates and trends. Here we quantified, for the period 2000-2017, the subnational variation in mortality rates and number of deaths of neonates, infants and children under 5 years of age within 99 low- and middle-income countries using a geostatistical survival model. We estimated that 32% of children under 5 in these countries lived in districts that had attained rates of 25 or fewer child deaths per 1,000 live births by 2017, and that 58% of child deaths between 2000 and 2017 in these countries could have been averted in the absence of geographical inequality. This study enables the identification of high-mortality clusters, patterns of progress and geographical inequalities to inform appropriate investments and implementations that will help to improve the health of all populations.
Published: 2019
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17. Publisher Correction: Mapping exclusive breastfeeding in Africa between 2000 and 2017.

Author: Bhattacharjee NV, Schaeffer LE, Marczak LB, Ross JM, Swartz SJ, Albright J, Gardner WM, Shields C, Sligar A, Schipp MF, Pickering BV, Henry NJ, Johnson KB, Louie C, Cork MA, Steuben KM, Lazzar-Atwood A, Lu D, Kinyoki DK, Osgood-Zimmerman A, Earl L, Mosser JF, Deshpande A, Burstein R, Woyczynski LP, Wilson KF, VanderHeide JD, Wiens KE, Reiner RC Jr, Piwoz EG, Rawat R, Sartorius B, Weaver ND, Nixon MR, Smith DL, Kassebaum NJ, Gakidou E, Lim SS, Mokdad AH, Murray CJL, Dwyer-Lindgren L, and Hay SI
Abstract: An amendment to this paper has been published and can be accessed via a link at the top of the paper.
Published: 2019
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18. The current and future global distribution and population at risk of dengue.

Author: Messina JP, Brady OJ, Golding N, Kraemer MUG, Wint GRW, Ray SE, Pigott DM, Shearer FM, Johnson K, Earl L, Marczak LB, Shirude S, Davis Weaver N, Gilbert M, Velayudhan R, Jones P, Jaenisch T, Scott TW, Reiner RC Jr, and Hay SI
Subjects: Aedes virology, Animals, Climate Change, Dengue virology, Dengue Virus physiology, Geography, Medical, Global Health, Humans, Models, Statistical, Risk Factors, Urbanization trends, Aedes physiology, Dengue transmission, Mosquito Vectors
Abstract: Dengue is a mosquito-borne viral infection that has spread throughout the tropical world over the past 60 years and now affects over half the world's population. The geographical range of dengue is expected to further expand due to ongoing global phenomena including climate change and urbanization. We applied statistical mapping techniques to the most extensive database of case locations to date to predict global environmental suitability for the virus as of 2015. We then made use of climate, population and socioeconomic projections for the years 2020, 2050 and 2080 to project future changes in virus suitability and human population at risk. This study is the first to consider the spread of Aedes mosquito vectors to project dengue suitability. Our projections provide a key missing piece of evidence for the changing global threat of vector-borne disease and will help decision-makers worldwide to better prepare for and respond to future changes in dengue risk.
Published: 2019
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19. Mapping exclusive breastfeeding in Africa between 2000 and 2017.

Author: Bhattacharjee NV, Schaeffer LE, Marczak LB, Ross JM, Swartz SJ, Albright J, Gardner WM, Shields C, Sligar A, Schipp MF, Pickering BV, Henry NJ, Johnson KB, Louie C, Cork MA, Steuben KM, Lazzar-Atwood A, Lu D, Kinyoki DK, Osgood-Zimmerman A, Earl L, Mosser JF, Deshpande A, Burstein R, Woyczynski LP, Wilson KF, VanderHeide JD, Wiens KE, Reiner RC Jr, Piwoz EG, Rawat R, Sartorius B, Davis Weaver N, Nixon MR, Smith DL, Kassebaum NJ, Gakidou E, Lim SS, Mokdad AH, Murray CJL, Dwyer-Lindgren L, and Hay SI
Subjects: Africa epidemiology, Female, HIV Infections transmission, Humans, Infant, Infant, Newborn, Infectious Disease Transmission, Vertical, Prevalence, Time Factors, World Health Organization, Breast Feeding statistics & numerical data
Abstract: Exclusive breastfeeding (EBF)-giving infants only breast-milk (and medications, oral rehydration salts and vitamins as needed) with no additional food or drink for their first six months of life-is one of the most effective strategies for preventing child mortality 1-4 . Despite these advantages, only 37% of infants under 6 months of age in Africa were exclusively breastfed in 2017 5 , and the practice of EBF varies by population. Here, we present a fine-scale geospatial analysis of EBF prevalence and trends in 49 African countries from 2000-2017, providing policy-relevant administrative- and national-level estimates. Previous national-level analyses found that most countries will not meet the World Health Organization's Global Nutrition Target of 50% EBF prevalence by 2025 6 . Our analyses show that even fewer will achieve this ambition in all subnational areas. Our estimates provide the ability to visualize subnational EBF variability and identify populations in need of additional breastfeeding support.
Published: 2019
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20. Mapping HIV prevalence in sub-Saharan Africa between 2000 and 2017.

Author: Dwyer-Lindgren L, Cork MA, Sligar A, Steuben KM, Wilson KF, Provost NR, Mayala BK, VanderHeide JD, Collison ML, Hall JB, Biehl MH, Carter A, Frank T, Douwes-Schultz D, Burstein R, Casey DC, Deshpande A, Earl L, El Bcheraoui C, Farag TH, Henry NJ, Kinyoki D, Marczak LB, Nixon MR, Osgood-Zimmerman A, Pigott D, Reiner RC Jr, Ross JM, Schaeffer LE, Smith DL, Davis Weaver N, Wiens KE, Eaton JW, Justman JE, Opio A, Sartorius B, Tanser F, Wabiri N, Piot P, Murray CJL, and Hay SI
Subjects: Adolescent, Adult, Africa South of the Sahara epidemiology, Female, HIV Infections prevention & control, Humans, Male, Middle Aged, Prevalence, Public Health statistics & numerical data, Public Health trends, Young Adult, Geographic Mapping, HIV Infections epidemiology
Abstract: HIV/AIDS is a leading cause of disease burden in sub-Saharan Africa. Existing evidence has demonstrated that there is substantial local variation in the prevalence of HIV; however, subnational variation has not been investigated at a high spatial resolution across the continent. Here we explore within-country variation at a 5 × 5-km resolution in sub-Saharan Africa by estimating the prevalence of HIV among adults (aged 15-49 years) and the corresponding number of people living with HIV from 2000 to 2017. Our analysis reveals substantial within-country variation in the prevalence of HIV throughout sub-Saharan Africa and local differences in both the direction and rate of change in HIV prevalence between 2000 and 2017, highlighting the degree to which important local differences are masked when examining trends at the country level. These fine-scale estimates of HIV prevalence across space and time provide an important tool for precisely targeting the interventions that are necessary to bringing HIV infections under control in sub-Saharan Africa.
Published: 2019
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21. Publisher Correction: Past and future spread of the arbovirus vectors Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus.

Author: Kraemer MUG, Reiner RC Jr, Brady OJ, Messina JP, Gilbert M, Pigott DM, Yi D, Johnson K, Earl L, Marczak LB, Shirude S, Weaver ND, Bisanzio D, Perkins TA, Lai S, Lu X, Jones P, Coelho GE, Carvalho RG, Van Bortel W, Marsboom C, Hendrickx G, Schaffner F, Moore CG, Nax HH, Bengtsson L, Wetter E, Tatem AJ, Brownstein JS, Smith DL, Lambrechts L, Cauchemez S, Linard C, Faria NR, Pybus OG, Scott TW, Liu Q, Yu H, Wint GRW, Hay SI, and Golding N
Abstract: In the version of this Article originally published, the affiliation for author Catherine Linard was incorrectly stated as ' 6 Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, UK'. The correct affiliation is ' 9 Spatial Epidemiology Lab (SpELL), Universite Libre de Bruxelles, Brussels, Belgium'. The affiliation for author Hongjie Yu was also incorrectly stated as ' 11 Department of Statistics, Harvard University, Cambridge, MA, USA'. The correct affiliation is ' 15 School of Health, Fudan University, Key Laboratory of Public Health Safety, Ministry of Education, Shanghai, China'. This has now been amended in all versions of the Article.
Published: 2019
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22. Past and future spread of the arbovirus vectors Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus.

Author: Kraemer MUG, Reiner RC Jr, Brady OJ, Messina JP, Gilbert M, Pigott DM, Yi D, Johnson K, Earl L, Marczak LB, Shirude S, Davis Weaver N, Bisanzio D, Perkins TA, Lai S, Lu X, Jones P, Coelho GE, Carvalho RG, Van Bortel W, Marsboom C, Hendrickx G, Schaffner F, Moore CG, Nax HH, Bengtsson L, Wetter E, Tatem AJ, Brownstein JS, Smith DL, Lambrechts L, Cauchemez S, Linard C, Faria NR, Pybus OG, Scott TW, Liu Q, Yu H, Wint GRW, Hay SI, and Golding N
Subjects: Aedes classification, Aedes physiology, Animals, Arbovirus Infections virology, Arboviruses genetics, Female, Humans, Mosquito Vectors classification, Mosquito Vectors physiology, Aedes virology, Arbovirus Infections transmission, Arboviruses physiology, Mosquito Vectors virology
Abstract: The global population at risk from mosquito-borne diseases-including dengue, yellow fever, chikungunya and Zika-is expanding in concert with changes in the distribution of two key vectors: Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus. The distribution of these species is largely driven by both human movement and the presence of suitable climate. Using statistical mapping techniques, we show that human movement patterns explain the spread of both species in Europe and the United States following their introduction. We find that the spread of Ae. aegypti is characterized by long distance importations, while Ae. albopictus has expanded more along the fringes of its distribution. We describe these processes and predict the future distributions of both species in response to accelerating urbanization, connectivity and climate change. Global surveillance and control efforts that aim to mitigate the spread of chikungunya, dengue, yellow fever and Zika viruses must consider the so far unabated spread of these mosquitos. Our maps and predictions offer an opportunity to strategically target surveillance and control programmes and thereby augment efforts to reduce arbovirus burden in human populations globally.
Published: 2019
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23. Global Mortality From Firearms, 1990-2016.

Author: Naghavi M, Marczak LB, Kutz M, Shackelford KA, Arora M, Miller-Petrie M, Aichour MTE, Akseer N, Al-Raddadi RM, Alam K, Alghnam SA, Antonio CAT, Aremu O, Arora A, Asadi-Lari M, Assadi R, Atey TM, Avila-Burgos L, Awasthi A, Ayala Quintanilla BP, Barker-Collo SL, Bärnighausen TW, Bazargan-Hejazi S, Behzadifar M, Behzadifar M, Bennett JR, Bhalla A, Bhutta ZA, Bilal AI, Borges G, Borschmann R, Brazinova A, Campuzano Rincon JC, Carvalho F, Castañeda-Orjuela CA, Dandona L, Dandona R, Dargan PI, De Leo D, Dharmaratne SD, Ding EL, Phuc Do H, Doku DT, Doyle KE, Driscoll TR, Edessa D, El-Khatib Z, Endries AY, Esteghamati A, Faro A, Farzadfar F, Feigin VL, Fischer F, Foreman KJ, Franklin RC, Fullman N, Futran ND, Gebrehiwot TT, Gutiérrez RA, Hafezi-Nejad N, Haghparast Bidgoli H, Hailu GB, Haro JM, Hassen HY, Hawley C, Hendrie D, Híjar M, Hu G, Ilesanmi OS, Jakovljevic M, James SL, Jayaraman S, Jonas JB, Kahsay A, Kasaeian A, Keiyoro PN, Khader Y, Khalil IA, Khang YH, Khubchandani J, Ahmad Kiadaliri A, Kieling C, Kim YJ, Kosen S, Krohn KJ, Kumar GA, Lami FH, Lansingh VC, Larson HJ, Linn S, Lunevicius R, Magdy Abd El Razek H, Magdy Abd El Razek M, Malekzadeh R, Carvalho Malta D, Mason-Jones AJ, Matzopoulos R, Memiah PTN, Mendoza W, Meretoja TJ, Mezgebe HB, Miller TR, Mohammed S, Moradi-Lakeh M, Mori R, Nand D, Tat Nguyen C, Le Nguyen Q, Ningrum DNA, Akpojene Ogbo F, Olagunju AT, Patton GC, Phillips MR, Polinder S, Pourmalek F, Qorbani M, Rahimi-Movaghar A, Rahimi-Movaghar V, Rahman M, Rai RK, Ranabhat CL, Rawaf DL, Rawaf S, Rowhani-Rahbar A, Safdarian M, Safiri S, Sagar R, Salama JS, Sanabria J, Santric Milicevic MM, Sarmiento-Suárez R, Sartorius B, Satpathy M, Schwebel DC, Seedat S, Sepanlou SG, Shaikh MA, Sharew NT, Shiue I, Singh JA, Sisay M, Skirbekk V, Soares Filho AM, Stein DJ, Stokes MA, Sufiyan MB, Swaroop M, Sykes BL, Tabarés-Seisdedos R, Tadese F, Tran BX, Thanh Tran T, Ukwaja KN, Vasankari TJ, Vlassov V, Werdecker A, Ye P, Yip P, Yonemoto N, Younis MZ, Zaidi Z, El Sayed Zaki M, Hay SI, Lim SS, Lopez AD, Mokdad AH, Vos T, and Murray CJL
Subjects: Adolescent, Adult, Age Distribution, Aged, Aged, 80 and over, Child, Child, Preschool, Female, Global Health statistics & numerical data, Humans, Infant, Infant, Newborn, Male, Middle Aged, Mortality trends, Sex Distribution, Young Adult, Firearms statistics & numerical data, Homicide statistics & numerical data, Suicide statistics & numerical data, Wounds, Gunshot mortality
Abstract: Importance: Understanding global variation in firearm mortality rates could guide prevention policies and interventions., Objective: To estimate mortality due to firearm injury deaths from 1990 to 2016 in 195 countries and territories., Design, Setting, and Participants: This study used deidentified aggregated data including 13 812 location-years of vital registration data to generate estimates of levels and rates of death by age-sex-year-location. The proportion of suicides in which a firearm was the lethal means was combined with an estimate of per capita gun ownership in a revised proxy measure used to evaluate the relationship between availability or access to firearms and firearm injury deaths., Exposures: Firearm ownership and access., Main Outcomes and Measures: Cause-specific deaths by age, sex, location, and year., Results: Worldwide, it was estimated that 251 000 (95% uncertainty interval [UI], 195 000-276 000) people died from firearm injuries in 2016, with 6 countries (Brazil, United States, Mexico, Colombia, Venezuela, and Guatemala) accounting for 50.5% (95% UI, 42.2%-54.8%) of those deaths. In 1990, there were an estimated 209 000 (95% UI, 172 000 to 235 000) deaths from firearm injuries. Globally, the majority of firearm injury deaths in 2016 were homicides (64.0% [95% UI, 54.2%-68.0%]; absolute value, 161 000 deaths [95% UI, 107 000-182 000]); additionally, 27% were firearm suicide deaths (67 500 [95% UI, 55 400-84 100]) and 9% were unintentional firearm deaths (23 000 [95% UI, 18 200-24 800]). From 1990 to 2016, there was no significant decrease in the estimated global age-standardized firearm homicide rate (-0.2% [95% UI, -0.8% to 0.2%]). Firearm suicide rates decreased globally at an annualized rate of 1.6% (95% UI, 1.1-2.0), but in 124 of 195 countries and territories included in this study, these levels were either constant or significant increases were estimated. There was an annualized decrease of 0.9% (95% UI, 0.5%-1.3%) in the global rate of age-standardized firearm deaths from 1990 to 2016. Aggregate firearm injury deaths in 2016 were highest among persons aged 20 to 24 years (for men, an estimated 34 700 deaths [95% UI, 24 900-39 700] and for women, an estimated 3580 deaths [95% UI, 2810-4210]). Estimates of the number of firearms by country were associated with higher rates of firearm suicide (P < .001; R2 = 0.21) and homicide (P < .001; R2 = 0.35)., Conclusions and Relevance: This study estimated between 195 000 and 276 000 firearm injury deaths globally in 2016, the majority of which were firearm homicides. Despite an overall decrease in rates of firearm injury death since 1990, there was variation among countries and across demographic subgroups.
Published: 2018
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24. Latitudinal variation in top-down and bottom-up control of a salt marsh food web.

Author: Marczak LB, Ho CK, Wieski K, Vu H, Denno RF, and Pennings SC
Subjects: Animals, Aphids physiology, Brachyura physiology, Climate, Coleoptera physiology, Feeding Behavior, Spiders physiology, Asteraceae physiology, Food Chain, Wetlands
Abstract: The shrub Iva frutescens, which occupies the terrestrial border of U.S. Atlantic Coast salt marshes, supports a food web that varies strongly across latitude. We tested whether latitudinal variation in plant quality (higher at high latitudes), consumption by omnivores (a crab, present only at low latitudes), consumption by mesopredators (ladybugs, present at all latitudes), or the life history stage of an herbivorous beetle could explain continental-scale field patterns of herbivore density. In a mesocosm experiment, crabs exerted strong top-down control on herbivorous beetles, ladybugs exerted strong top-down control on aphids, and both predators benefited plants through trophic cascades. Latitude of plant origin had no effect on consumers. Herbivorous beetle density was greater if mesocosms were stocked with beetle adults rather than larvae, and aphid densities were reduced in the "adult beetle" treatment. Treatment combinations representing high and low latitudes produced patterns of herbivore density similar to those in the field. We conclude that latitudinal variation in plant quality is less important than latitudinal variation in top consumers and competition in mediating food web structure. Climate may also play a strong role in structuring high-latitude salt marshes by limiting the number of herbivore generations per growing season and causing high overwintering mortality.
Published: 2011
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25. Riparian forest composition affects stream litter decomposition despite similar microbial and invertebrate communities.

Author: Kominoski JS, Marczak LB, and Richardson JS
Subjects: Animals, Biodegradation, Environmental, Bacteria metabolism, Ecosystem, Invertebrates physiology, Rivers, Trees
Abstract: Cross-boundary flows of energy and nutrients link biodiversity and functioning in adjacent ecosystems. The composition of forest tree species can affect the structure and functioning of stream ecosystems due to physical and chemical attributes, as well as changes in terrestrial resource subsidies. We examined how variation in riparian canopy composition (coniferous, deciduous, mixed) affects adjacent trophic levels (invertebrate and microbial consumers) and decomposition of organic matter in small, coastal rainforest streams in southwestern British Columbia. Breakdown rates of higher-quality red alder (Alnus rubra) litter were faster in streams with a greater percentage of deciduous than coniferous riparian canopy, whereas breakdown rates of lower-quality western hemlock (Tsuga heterophylla) litter were independent of riparian forest composition. When invertebrates were excluded using fine mesh, breakdown rates of both litter species were an order of magnitude less and were not significantly affected by riparian forest composition. Stream invertebrate and microbial communities were similar among riparian forest composition, with most variation attributed to leaf litter species. Invertebrate taxa richness and shredder biomass were higher in A. rubra litter; however, taxa evenness was greatest for T. heterophylla litter and both litter species in coniferous streams. Microbial community diversity (determined from terminal restriction fragment length polymorphisms) was unaffected by riparian forest or litter species. Fungal allele richness was higher than bacterial allele richness, and microbial communities associated with lower-quality T. heterophylla litter had higher diversity (allele uniqueness and richness) than those associated with higher-quality A. rubra litter. Percent variation in breakdown rates was mostly attributed to riparian forest composition in the presence of invertebrates and microbes; however, stream consumer biodiversity at adjacent trophic levels did not explain these patterns. Riparian and stream ecosystems and their biotic communities are linked through exchange and decomposition of detrital resources, and we provide evidence that riparian forest composition affects stream ecosystem catabolism despite similarities in microbial and invertebrate communities.
Published: 2011
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26. Are forested buffers an effective conservation strategy for riparian fauna? An assessment using meta-analysis.

Author: Marczak LB, Sakamaki T, Turvey SL, Deguise I, Wood SL, and Richardson JS
Subjects: Animals, Conservation of Natural Resources methods, Rivers, Trees, Water Movements, Water Pollution, Chemical prevention & control
Abstract: Historically, forested riparian buffers have been created to provide protection for aquatic organisms and aquatic ecosystem functions. Increasingly, new and existing riparian buffers are being used also to meet terrestrial conservation requirements. To test the effectiveness of riparian buffers for conserving terrestrial fauna, we conducted a meta-analysis using published data from 397 comparisons of species abundance in riparian buffers and unharvested (reference) riparian sites. The response of terrestrial species to riparian buffers was not consistent between taxonomic groups; bird and arthropod abundances were significantly greater in buffers relative to unharvested areas, whereas amphibian abundance decreased. Edge-preferring species were more abundant in buffer sites than reference sites, whereas species associated with interior habitat were not significantly different in abundance. The degree of buffer effect on animal abundance was unrelated to buffer width; wider buffers did not result in greater similarity between reference and buffer sites. However, responses to buffer treatment were more variable in buffers <50 m wide, a commonly prescribed width in many management plans. Our results indicate that current buffer prescriptions do not maintain most terrestrial organisms in buffer strips at levels comparable to undisturbed sites.
Published: 2010
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27. Growth and development rates in a riparian spider are altered by asynchrony between the timing and amount of a resource subsidy.

Author: Marczak LB and Richardson JS
Subjects: Analysis of Variance, Animals, Body Weight, British Columbia, Reproduction physiology, Time Factors, Animal Nutritional Physiological Phenomena, Life Cycle Stages physiology, Spiders growth & development
Abstract: Rapid growth in response to increased prey abundance may be induced by environmental variability associated with resource subsidies. Spiders living in riparian areas are subject to frequent, episodic bursts of aquatic prey (subsidies). These periods of high resource abundance may occur at different points in recipient consumers' development through variation in emergence patterns of prey between years or across a landscape. We examine how variable timing of subsidy abundance intersects with life history scheduling to produce different growth and development outcomes for individuals within a population. Through a series of controlled feeding experiments, we tested the hypotheses that the spider Tetragnatha versicolor: (1) exhibits compensatory growth in response to subsidy variability, (2) that rapid increases in mass may result in a greater risk of mortality, and (3) that the timing of subsidy resources relative to the development schedule of this spider may produce different outcomes for individual growth patterns and adult condition. Spiders fed at very high rates grew fastest but also showed evidence of increased mortality risk during moulting. T. versicolor is capable of exhibiting strong growth compensation-individuals suffering initial growth restriction were able to catch up completely with animals on a constant diet utilising the same amount of food. Spiders that received an early pulse of resources (simulating an early arrival of an aquatic insect subsidy to riparian forests) did worse on all measures of development and fitness than spiders that received either a constant supply of food or a late pulse of resources. Importantly, receiving large amounts of food early in life appears to actually confer relative disadvantages in terms of later performance compared with receiving subsidies later in development. Subsidies may provide greater benefits to individuals or age cohorts encountering this resource abundance closer to the onset of reproductive efforts than subsidies arriving early in development.
Published: 2008
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28. Spiders and subsidies: results from the riparian zone of a coastal temperate rainforest.

Author: Marczak LB and Richardson JS
Subjects: Animals, Biomass, Female, Insecta growth & development, Male, Population Density, Population Dynamics, Rivers, Spiders growth & development, Time Factors, Trees, Ecosystem, Food Chain, Predatory Behavior, Spiders physiology
Abstract: 1. Aquatic insects emerging from streams can provide an important energy subsidy to recipient consumers such as riparian web-building spiders. This subsidy has been hypothesized to be of little importance where the primary productivity of the recipient habitat exceeds that of the donor habitat. 2. To test this hypothesis, we manipulated emerging stream insect abundance in a productive riparian rainforest in a replicated design using greenhouse-type exclosures, contrasted with unmanipulated stream reaches (four exclosures on two streams). 3. Experimental exclosures resulted in a 62.9% decrease in aquatic insect abundance in exclusion reaches compared with control reaches. The overall density of riparian spiders was significantly positively correlated with aquatic insect abundances. Horizontal orb weavers (Tetragnathidae) showed a strong response to aquatic insect reduction - abundance at exclosure sites was 57% lower than at control sites. Several spider families that have not been associated with tracking aquatic insect subsidies also showed significantly decreased abundance when aquatic insects were reduced. 4. This result is contrary to predictions of weak subsidy effects where recipient net primary productivity is high. These results suggest that predicting the importance of resource subsidies for food webs requires a focus on the relative abundance of subsidy materials in recipient and donor habitats and not simply on the total flux of energy between systems.
Published: 2007
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29. Meta-analysis: trophic level, habitat, and productivity shape the food web effects of resource subsidies.

Author: Marczak LB, Thompson RM, and Richardson JS
Subjects: Animals, Birds, Models, Biological, Spiders, Ecosystem, Food Chain
Abstract: Studies of the effects of cross-habitat resource subsidies have been a feature of food web ecology over the past decade. To date, most studies have focused on demonstrating the magnitude of a subsidy or documenting its effect in the recipient habitat. Ecologists have yet to develop a satisfactory framework for predicting the magnitude of these effects. We used 115 data sets from 32 studies to compare consumer responses to resource subsidies across recipient habitat type, trophic level, and functional group. Changes in consumer density or biomass in response to subsidies were inconsistent across habitats, trophic, and functional groups. Responses in stream cobble bar and coastline habitats were larger than in other habitats. Contrary to expectation, the magnitude of consumer response was not affected by recipient habitat productivity or the ratio of productivity between donor and recipient habitats. However, consumer response was significantly related to the ratio of subsidy resources to equivalent resources in the recipient habitat. Broad contrasts in productivity are modified by subsidy type, vector, and the physical and biotic characteristics of both donor and recipient habitats. For this reason, the ratio of subsidy to equivalent resources is a more useful tool for predicting the possible effect of a subsidy than coarser contrasts of in situ productivity. The commonness of subsidy effects suggests that many ecosystems need to be studied as open systems.
Published: 2007
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29 results on '"Marczak, LB"'

1. Mapping inequalities in exclusive breastfeeding in low- and middle-income countries, 2000-2018

2. Mapping child growth failure across low- and middle-income countries

3. Mapping 123 million neonatal, infant and child deaths between 2000 and 2017

4. Global, regional, and national burden of suicide mortality 1990 to 2016: Systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016

5. Past and future spread of the arbovirus vectors Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus (vol 4, pg 854, 2019)

6. Past and future spread of the arbovirus vectors Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus

7. The current and future global distribution and population at risk of dengue

8. Global Mortality From Firearms, 1990-2016

9. Global mortality from firearms, 1990-2016

10. Global, regional, and national under-5 mortality, adult mortality, age-specific mortality, and life expectancy, 1970-2016: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016

11. Health effects associated with consumption of unprocessed red meat: a Burden of Proof study.

12. Health effects associated with smoking: a Burden of Proof study.

13. Mobile Phone-Based Population Flow Data for the COVID-19 Outbreak in Mainland China.

14. Prevalence and intensity of soil-transmitted helminth infections of children in sub-Saharan Africa, 2000-18: a geospatial analysis.

15. Identifying residual hotspots and mapping lower respiratory infection morbidity and mortality in African children from 2000 to 2017.

16. Mapping 123 million neonatal, infant and child deaths between 2000 and 2017.

17. Publisher Correction: Mapping exclusive breastfeeding in Africa between 2000 and 2017.

18. The current and future global distribution and population at risk of dengue.

19. Mapping exclusive breastfeeding in Africa between 2000 and 2017.

20. Mapping HIV prevalence in sub-Saharan Africa between 2000 and 2017.

21. Publisher Correction: Past and future spread of the arbovirus vectors Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus.

22. Past and future spread of the arbovirus vectors Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus.

23. Global Mortality From Firearms, 1990-2016.

24. Latitudinal variation in top-down and bottom-up control of a salt marsh food web.

25. Riparian forest composition affects stream litter decomposition despite similar microbial and invertebrate communities.

26. Are forested buffers an effective conservation strategy for riparian fauna? An assessment using meta-analysis.

27. Growth and development rates in a riparian spider are altered by asynchrony between the timing and amount of a resource subsidy.

28. Spiders and subsidies: results from the riparian zone of a coastal temperate rainforest.

29. Meta-analysis: trophic level, habitat, and productivity shape the food web effects of resource subsidies.

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29 results on '"Marczak, LB"'

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