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In addition to the tsunami hazard posed by distant great earthquakes, Rapa Nui (Easter Island), in the Southeast Pacific Ocean, is exposed to frequent and intense coastal storms. Here, we use sea-level records and field surveys guided by video and photographic footage to show that extreme sea levels at Rapa Nui occur much more frequent than previously thought and thus constitute an unrecognized hazard to the inland’s maritime supply chain. We found that extreme sea-level events, including the two most extreme (March 5th and May 5th, 2020) in our 17-month-long analyzed period (from January 1st, 2019, to May 31st, 2020), resulted from constructive superpositions of seiches on the shelf, storm surges and high tides. By further analyzing time series of atmospheric and wind-generated wave data, we conclude that these extreme sea levels are ultimately driven by the breaking of large waves near the coastline (i.e., wave setup), with lesser contribution of barometric setup and even less of wind setup. We also propose that these large waves were mainly generated from strong, long-lasting, NW winds associated with intense atmospheric rivers (long, narrow regions in the atmosphere that transport abundant water vapor) passing over Rapa Nui. Given that the intensity of atmospheric rivers and sea level are thought to increase as climate changes, a deeper understanding of the relation between meteorological and oceanographic processes at Rapa Nui is strongly needed.

We present a comprehensive relative sea-level (RSL) database for north, central, and south-central Chile (18.5 degrees S - 43.6 degrees S) using a consistent, systematic, and internationally comparable approach. Despite its latitudinal extent, this coastline has received little rigorous or systematic attention and details of its RSL history remain largely unexplored. To address this knowledge gap, we re-evaluate the geological context and age of previously published sea-level indicators, providing 78 index points and 84 marine or terrestrial limiting points spanning from 11 ka to the present day. Many data points were originally collected for research in other fields and have not previously been examined for the information they provide on sea-level change. Additionally, we describe new sea-level data from four sites located between the Gulf of Arauco and Valdivia. By compiling RSL histories for 11 different regions, we summarise current knowledge of Chilean RSL. These histories indicate mid Holocene sea levels above present in all regions, but at highly contrasting elevations from similar to 30 m to

We present evidence that suggests a new risk scenario for the Valdivia basin in south Chile, located in the area of the magnitude 9.5 1960 earthquake. In 1960, three mass movements, triggered by the earthquake shaking, dammed the upper course of the San Pedro River and threatened Valdivia City until it was opened in a controlled manner by its inhabitants. Published historical accounts indicate that the 1575 earthquake, predecessor of the 1960 event, also triggered a mass movement that dammed the upper course of the river. However, here we reinterpret the published account and present new historical records, which we combined with satellite imagery and field surveys to show that the volume of the landslide in 1575 was smaller than the smallest of those of 1960, yet its outburst flood killed thousands of natives located downstream. Additionally, we characterized different mass movement deposits in the upper course of the San Pedro River, including both ancient and those formed in 1960, and we evaluated the mechanisms that could contribute to their generation at present (e.g. land use). Our results suggest that in the present-day conditions a moderately-sized (Mw ~8) earthquake can be sufficient to cause damming the San Pedro River, which challenges the previous assumption that such phenomena are exclusively related to giant 1960-like earthquakes.

On September 16, 2015, a Mw 8.3 earthquake struck the north-central Chile coast, triggering a tsunami observed along 500 km of coastline, between Huasco (28.5°S) and San Antonio (33.5°S). This tsunami provided a unique opportunity to examine the nature of tsunami deposits in a semi-arid, siliciclastic environment where stratigraphic and sedimentological records of past tsunamis are difficult to distinguish. To improve our ability to identify such evidence, we targeted one of the few low-energy, organic-rich depositional environments in north-central Chile: Pachingo marsh in Tongoy Bay (30.3°S). We found sedimentary evidence of the 2015 and one previous tsunami as tabular sand sheets. Both deposits are composed of poorly to moderately sorted, gray-brown, fine-to medium-grained sand and are distinct from underlying and overlying organic-rich silt. Both sand beds thin (from ∼20 cm to

Historical records of an earthquake that occurred in 1730 affecting Metropolitan Chile provide essential clues on the source characteristics for the future earthquakes in the region. The earthquake and tsunami of 1730 have been recognized as the largest to occur in Metropolitan Chile since the beginning of written history. The earthquake destroyed buildings along >1000 km of the coast and produced a large tsunami that caused damage as far as Japan. Here, its source characteristics are inferred by comparing local tsunami inundations computed from hypothetical earthquakes with varying magnitude and depth, with those inferred from historical observations. It is found that a 600-800 km long rupture involving average slip amounts of 10-14 m (Mw 9.1-9.3) best explains the observed tsunami heights and inundations. This large earthquake magnitude is supported by the 1730 tsunami heights inferred in Japan. The inundation results combined with local uplift reports suggest a southward increase of the slip depth along the rupture zone of the 1730 earthquake. While shallow slip on the area to the north of the 2010 earthquake rupture zone is required to explain the reported inundation, only deeper slip at this area can explain the coastal uplift reports. Since the later earthquakes of the region involved little or no slip at shallow depths, the near future earthquakes on Metropolitan Chile could release the shallow slip accumulated since 1730 and thus lead to strong tsunami excitation. Moderate shaking from a shallow earthquake could delay tsunami evacuation for the most populated coastal region of Chile. (250/250)

Tidal marsh sediments from south-central Chile provide evidence for multiple great earthquakes. Diatom transfer functions, statistical models of the relationship between species preserved in the sediment and elevation, provide quantitative estimates of coseismic vertical land-level change associated with individual earthquakes. However, in south-central Chile, our ability to quantify land-level change is currently limited by a lack of understanding of the environmental variables controlling the distribution of diatoms, an essential prerequisite for converting variations in fossil diatom assemblages into quantitative estimates of past elevation changes. We present a new modern diatom dataset for the region and explore the implications of the scale of the dataset used in transfer function models on the reconstructions of land-level change. Modern training sets containing samples from a regional scale are superior to sub-regional and local-scale training sets, providing closer estimates for known deformation during the great 1960 Chilean earthquake, a higher proportion of good modern analogues and uncertainty terms up to 42% smaller than previously published reconstructions. Copyright © 2017 The Authors. Journal of Quaternary Science Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

An uncommon coastal sedimentary record combines evidence for seismic shaking and coincident tsunami inundation since AD 1000 in the region of the largest earthquake recorded instrumentally: the giant 1960 southern Chile earthquake (Mw 9.5). The record reveals significant variability in the size and recurrence of megathrust earthquakes and ensuing tsunamis along this part of the Nazca-South American plate boundary. A 500-m long coastal outcrop on Isla Chiloé, midway along the 1960 rupture, provides continuous exposure of soil horizons buried locally by debris-flow diamicts and extensively by tsunami sand sheets. The diamicts flattened plants that yield geologically precise ages to correlate with well-dated evidence elsewhere. The 1960 event was preceded by three earthquakes that probably resembled it in their effects, in AD 898–1128, 1300–1398 and 1575, and by five relatively smaller intervening earthquakes. Earthquakes and tsunamis recurred exceptionally often between AD 1300 and 1575. Their average recurrence interval of 85 years only slightly exceeds the time already elapsed since 1960. This inference is of serious concern because no earthquake has been anticipated in the region so soon after the 1960 event, and current plate locking suggests that some segments of the boundary are already capable of producing large earthquakes. This long-term earthquake and tsunami history of one of the world's most seismically active subduction zones provides an example of variable rupture mode, in which earthquake size and recurrence interval vary from one earthquake to the next.

The stratigraphy within coastal river valleys in south-central Chile clarifies and extends the region’s history of large, earthquakes and accompanying tsunamis. Our site at Quidico (38.1°S, 73.3°W) is located in an overlap zone between ruptures of magnitude 8–9 earthquakes in 1960 and 2010, and, therefore, records tsunamis originating from subduction-zone ruptures north and south of the city of Concepción. Hand-dug pits and cores in a 3-m-thick sequence of freshwater peat in an abandoned meander (a little-examined depositional environment for tsunami deposits) and exposures along the Quidico River show five sand beds that extend as much as 1.2 km inland. Evidence for deposition of the beds by tsunamis includes tabular sand beds that are laterally extensive (>100 m), well sorted, fine upward, have sharp lower contacts, and contain diatom assemblages dominated by brackish and marine taxa. Using eyewitness accounts of tsunami inundation,137Cs analyses, and14C dating, we matched the upper four sand beds with historical tsunamis in 2010, 1960, 1835, and 1751. The oldest prehistoric bed dates to 1445–1490 CE and correlates with lacustrine and coastal records of similar-aged earthquakes and tsunamis in south-central Chile.

On 8 July 1730, a great earthquake struck metropolitan Chile, causing extensive damage 1000 km along the country and focused in Valpara&iacute, so. Due to the date of occurrence of this event, large uncertainties about the earthquake&rsquo, s magnitude have been discussed among the scientific community, and the earthquake and tsunami have remained unknown for most of the population. The purpose of this paper is to describe joint efforts undertaken by organizations, academia, and authorities to rescue the forgotten memory of an event that occurred almost three centuries ago and that may be repeated in the near future. In line with the Sendai Framework, we focus on one of the four priorities for action, which is to understand disaster risk, with the premise that the memory activation and raising awareness can save lives in the future. We designed outreach strategies to communicate this knowledge to the community in a participatory way. The latter involves scientific talks, earthquake simulators, tsunami projection mapping on relief scaled models (mock-up), and a public debate including the participation of academia, politicians, authorities, and the local community. The emulation of such activities and the constant work of regional and national authorities, academia, and non-governmental organizations dealing with risk mitigation encourage involving the community to build safer cities against the tsunami hazard.

Coasts on active subduction zones are recurrently affected by great earthquakes and associated tsunamis. Deposits resulting from both tidal inundation after coseismic subsidence and from tsunamis can be radiocarbon dated to infer patterns of earthquake and tsunami recurrence. Yet, finding suitable plant material for radiocarbon dating is not always easy. Luminescence dating provides a more ubiquitously applicable approach, but in such settings remains challenging due to three main reasons: (i) The quartz and feldspar minerals formed on active subduction zones tend to show inadequate luminescence properties; (ii) tsunami deposits may be affected by incomplete resetting of luminescence signals; and (iii) the dosimetry in sequences of tsunami and tidal sand sheets intercalated in marsh soils is often complicated. To evaluate the impact of these factors on luminescence dating accuracy, we re-date previously historically-constrained and radiocarbon dated tsunami and post-earthquake tidal deposits marking some predecessors of the giant 1960 Chile earthquake. While the impact of complex dosimetry on luminescence ages was negligible for both quartz and feldspar, the selection of an appropriate luminescence signal and aliquot size was crucial for generating robust chronologies. Due to unstable luminescence signals, quartz optically stimulated luminescence (OSL) ages and fading corrected infrared-stimulated (IR50) feldspar ages significantly underestimate the control ages. Only post-infrared-infrared (pIRIR150) signals of feldspar provide ages without any systematic age underestimation. Incomplete signal resetting was successfully addressed by using small aliquots in combination with the bootstrapped minimum age model. Remaining remnant ages of a few decades to a few centuries for the historical 1960 and 1575 tsunami sand sheets reflect a combination of laboratory residuals and incomplete signal resetting. Our results show that low-temperature pIRIR dating of feldspar is a valuable tool for reconstructing late Holocene earthquake chronologies in regions where quartz is geologically young, volcanic in origin, and holds few transportation cycles, as it occurs in active subduction zones. Although relatively large residual doses introduce dating uncertainties for sediments younger than a few centuries, feldspar pIRIR dating appears to be a good alternative to radiocarbon dating. On the contrary, quartz OSL and feldspar infrared ages were associated with systematic age underestimation, making them problematic for obtaining adequate chronologies in this type of geologic setting.

The ∼500-year historical record of seismicity along the central Chile coast (30–34°S) is characterized by a series of ∼M 8.0–8.5 earthquakes followed by low tsunamis ( 10 m), but the frequency of such large events is unknown. We extend the seismic history of central Chile through a study of a lowland stratigraphic sequence along the metropolitan coast north of Valparaiso (33°S). At this site, higher relative sea level during the mid Holocene created a tidal marsh and the accommodation space necessary for sediment that preserves earthquake and tsunami evidence. Within this 2600-yr-long sequence, we traced six laterally continuous sand beds probably deposited by high tsunamis. Plant remains that underlie the sand beds were radiocarbon dated to 6200, 5600, 5000, 4400, 3800, and 3700 cal yr BP. Sediment properties and diatom assemblages of the sand beds—for example, anomalous marine planktonic diatoms and upward fining of silt-sized diatom valves—point to a marine sediment source and high-energy deposition. Grain-size analysis shows a strong similarity between inferred tsunami deposits and modern coastal sediment. Upward fining sequences characteristic of suspension deposition are present in five of the six sand beds. Despite the lack of significant lithologic changes between the sedimentary units under- and overlying tsunami deposits, we infer that the increase in freshwater siliceous microfossils in overlying units records coseismic uplift concurrent with the deposition of five of the sand beds. During our mid-Holocene window of evidence preservation, the mean recurrence interval of earthquakes and tsunamis is ∼500 years. Our findings imply that the frequency of historical earthquakes in central Chile is not representative of the greatest earthquakes and tsunamis that the central Chilean subduction zone has produced.

Geochemical proxies and diatom assemblages were used in combination with grain size characteristics not only to describe the deposit left behind by the 27 February 2010, Maule tsunami at Las Canas, Maule Region, Chile, but also to trace the maximum inundation limit of the event. The sandy deposit was laid down between 160 and 260 m inland behind an eroded sand dune and a lagoon but reached only 60% of the total tsunami inundation distance of 380 m, which was marked by organic debris, pumice clasts and wooden logs. It consisted of coarse to medium sand that thinned and fined inland. At the most seaward point, the 22 cm thick deposit exhibited a fining upward unit overlain by a couplet of coarsening–fining upward units, suggesting deposition by at least two waves, while farther inland the fining upward deposit was probably left behind by only one wave. Chemical proxies (Ca/Ti vs Sr/Ba) allow us to distinguish the deposit from the surrounding soil and indicate that it was sourced from the beach and/or dune area, with diatom assemblages confirming the marine origin of the deposit. Saltwater indicators (e.g. Cl, S) provide evidence for the maximum inundation limit beyond the extent of the sandy deposit, despite dilution and dissolution by 500 mm of rainfall in the six months since the tsunami. Marine and marine/brackish diatom assemblages decreased landward but were found up to the inundation limit and immediately beyond, suggesting the effect of diatom-bearing sea spray at the wave front or redistribution of the detrital assemblage associated with tsunami inundation due to wind. While the latter might result in a slight over-estimation of the inundation distance, they can be used in combination with chemical proxies to trace the maximum inundation distance of recent and past tsunamis, thus allowing for a better estimation of the magnitude of past events. Post-depositional processes were found to have affected the thinner sandy deposits (

The Arauco Peninsula (37°-38°S) in south-central Chile has been proposed as a possible barrier to the along-strike propagation of megathrust ruptures, separating historical earthquakes to the south (1960 AD 1837, 1737, and 1575) and north (2010 AD, 1835, 1751, 1657, and 1570) of the peninsula. However, the 2010 (Mw 8.8) earthquake propagated into the Arauco Peninsula, re-rupturing part of the megathrust that had ruptured only 50 years earlier during the largest subduction zone earthquake in the instrumental record (Mw 9.5). To better understand long-term slip variability in the Arauco Peninsula region, we analyzed four coastal sedimentary sections from two sites (Tirua, 38.3°S and Quidico, 38.1°S) located within the overlap of the 2010 and 1960 ruptures to reconstruct a ∼600-year record of coseismic land-level change and tsunami inundation. Stratigraphic, lithologic, and diatom results show variable coseismic land-level change coincident with tsunami inundation of the Tirua and Quidico marshes that is consistent with regional historical accounts of coseismic subsidence during earthquakes along the Valdivia portion of the subduction zone (1960 AD and 1575) and coseismic uplift during earthquakes along the Maule portion of the subduction zone (2010 AD, 1835, 1751). In addition, we document variable coseismic land-level change associated with three new prehistoric earthquakes and accompanying tsunamis in 1470–1570 AD, 1425–1455, and 270–410. The mixed record of coseismic subsidence and uplift that we document illustrates the variability of down-dip and lateral slip distribution at the overlap of the 2010 and 1960 ruptures, showing that ruptures have repeatedly propagated into, but not through the Arauco Peninsula and suggesting the area has persisted as a long-term impediment to slip through at least seven of the last megathrust earthquakes (∼600 years).

Far-field tsunami records from the Japanese tide gauge network allow the reexamination of the moment magnitudes (Mw) for the 1906 and 1922 Chilean earthquakes, which to date rely on limited information mainly from seismological observations alone. Tide gauges along the Japanese coast provide extensive records of tsunamis triggered by six great (Mw >8) Chilean earthquakes with instrumentally determined moment magnitudes. These tsunami records are used to explore the dependence of tsunami amplitudes in Japan on the parent earthquake magnitude of Chilean origin. Using the resulting regression parameters together with tide gauge amplitudes measured in Japan we estimate apparent moment magnitudes of Mw 8.0–8.2 and Mw 8.5–8.6 for the 1906 central and 1922 north-central Chile earthquakes. The large discrepancy of the 1906 magnitude estimated from the tsunami observed in Japan as compared with those previously determined from seismic waves (Ms 8.4) suggests a deeper than average source with reduced tsunami excitation. A deep dislocation along the Chilean megathrust would favor uplift of the coast rather than beneath the sea, giving rise to a smaller tsunami and producing effects consistent with those observed in 1906. The 1922 magnitude inferred from far-field tsunami amplitudes appear to better explain the large extent of damage and the destructive tsunami that were locally observed following the earthquake than the lower seismic magnitudes (Ms 8.3) that were likely affected by the well-known saturation effects. Thus, a repeat of the large 1922 earthquake poses seismic and tsunami hazards in a region identified as a mature seismic gap.

Coastal zones are very dynamic and fragile environments, constituting a landscape ever more heterogeneous, fragmented and with increasing levels of complexity due to the changing relationship between man and nature. Integrated coastal zone management therefore requires detailed knowledge of the system and its components, based—to a large extent—on technical and scientific information. However, the information generated must be in line with the political requirements necessary for decision-making and planning. Thus the use of indicators to give a simplified view of the many components of the territory, and at the same time to provide important information about patterns or trends, becomes a tool of the utmost importance. These indicators can be understood as measurable characteristics of the environment, which facilitate comprehension of the processes occurring at different scales and serve as a reference to inform the population and support decision-making. The aim of the present note is to demonstrate briefly the need to develop geographical-environmental and natural risk indicators to facilitate comprehension of the dynamic of spatial and temporal landscape patterns, particularly in coastal environments. This approach offers an historical summary of the natural, socio-economic and political processes which currently make up the territory, and which without doubt will continue to influence it in the future. At the same time, it is proposed that information should be integrated on the basis of this framework with a view to generating spatial decision support systems in a context of planning and integrated management of the coastal zones of Chile.

El terremoto del 13 de mayo de 1647, la mayor catástrofe en la historia colonial de Chile central, es considerado como el segundo evento de la secuencia de terremotos interplaca que ha ocurrido con una sorprendente regularidad en esta parte de Chile. Sin embargo, el análisis histórico realizado sugiere que este terremoto, además de generar un enérgico y extenso sacudimiento en el valle central, no habría producido un tsunami. Ambas características podrían significar que se trató de un evento tipo intraplaca, originado superficialmente en la placa continental o profundo en la de Nazca. Los efectos reportados se asemejan más a los del terremoto de Chillán de 1939, un evento intraplaca de profundidad intermedia que aunque no produjo un tsunami generó grandes intensidades en el valle central y una enorme cantidad de víctimas. Si el terremoto de 1647 fue intraplaca, se plantea un problemático escenario de riesgo para la región más poblada del país. The May 13, 1647 earthquake, the larger catastrophe in the colonial history of central Chile, is considered as the second event of the inter-plate earthquakes series that has occurred at regular intervals in this part of Chile. However, this historical analysis suggests this earthquake, besides generating a strong and widespread shaking in the central valley, did not produced a tsunami. Both features could imply it was an intra-plate event, sourced in the surface of the continental plate or deeper in the Nazca plate. The reported effects resemble those from the 1939 Chillan earthquake, a middle-depth intra-plate event that although it did not produce a tsunami it does generated large intensities in the central valley and a huge number of victims. If the 1647 earthquake was intra-plate, a problematic risk scenario is set for the most populated region of the country.

International audience; The recent 29 September 2009 South Pacific and 27 February 2010 Chilean events are a graphic reminder that the tsunami hazard and risk for the Pacific Ocean region should not be forgotten. Pacific Islands Countries (PICs) generally have short (< 150 years) historic records, which means that to understand their tsunami hazard and risk researchers must study evidence for prehistoric events. However, our current state of knowledge of palaeotsunamis in PICs as opposed to their circum-Pacific counterparts is minimal at best. We briefly outline the limited extent of our current knowledge and propose an innovative methodology for future research in the Pacific. Each PIC represents a point source of information in the Pacific Ocean and this would allow their palaeotsunami records to be treated akin to palaeo-DART® (Deep-ocean Assessment and Reporting of Tsunamis) buoys. Contemporaneous palaeotsunamis from local, regional and distant sources could be identified by using the spatial distribution of island records throughout the Pacific Ocean in conjunction with robust event chronologies. This would be highly innovative and, more importantly, would help provide the building blocks necessary to achieve more meaningful disaster risk reduction for PICs.

Multiproxy analyses of coastal sediments at Cape Pattisson, Chatham Island, identified evidence of two past tsunamis. The most recent event was the 1868 AD tsunami for which there is a wealth of historical evidence. We argue that the earlier event is most probably the 1604 AD South American tsunami. The chronology for these two events was established using palynological data from the Chatham Island sediments, and historical data from South America. It is unlikely that the exposed coastline of Cape Pattisson preserves evidence of earlier events, but given the historical and palaeotsunami records in South America, it seems likely that many earlier trans-South Pacific tsunamis would have struck the Chatham Islands and possibly mainland New Zealand. This is the first time that sedimentological evidence for a prehistoric trans-South Pacific tsunami has been documented in New Zealand, albeit on an outlying island. In the light of the findings on Chatham Island, a reassessment of the New Zealand palaeotsunami database indicates that there are several possible 1604 AD deposits on the east coast of both mainland islands. Further work needs to be done to determine whether these are indeed associated with the 1604 AD event. This use of data from a country with a relatively long historical record adds immense value to understanding the timing of palaeotsunamis in countries with shorter records. This technique offers an excellent opportunity to evaluate the magnitude and frequency of past trans-South Pacific tsunamis and to assess the risks posed to individual Pacific islands.

In this paper we adopt a quantitative biostratigraphic approach to establish a 1000-year-long coastal record of megathrust earthquake and tsunami occurrence in south central Chile. Our investigations focus on a site in the centre of the rupture segment of the largest instrumentally recorded earthquake, the AD 1960 magnitude 9.5 Chile earthquake. At Chucalén coseismic subsidence in 1960 is recorded in the lithostratigraphy and biostratigraphy of coastal marshes, with peat overlain by minerogenic sediment and changes in the assemblages of diatoms (unicellular algae) indicating an abrupt increase in relative sea level. In addition to the 1960 earthquake, the stratigraphy at Chucalén records three earlier earthquakes, the historically documented earthquake of 1575 and two prehistoric earthquakes, radiocarbon dated to AD 1270–1450 and 1070–1220. Laterally extensive sand sheets containing marine or brackish diatom assemblages suggest tsunami deposition associated with at least two of the three pre-1960 earthquakes. The record presented here suggests a longer earthquake recurrence interval, averaging 270 years, than the historical recurrence interval, which averages 128 years. The lack of geologic evidence at Chucalén of two historically documented earthquakes, in 1737 and 1837, supports the previously suggested hypothesis of variability in historical earthquake characteristics. Our estimates of coseismic land-level change for the four earthquakes range from meter-scale subsidence to no subsidence or slight uplift, suggesting earthquakes completing each ∼270 year cycle may not share a common, characteristic slip distribution. The presence of buried soils at elevations below their modern equivalents implies net relative sea-level rise over the course of the Chucalén paleoseismic record, in contrast to relative sea-level fall over preceding millennia inferred from sites on the mainland. Sea-level rise may contribute to the preservation of evidence for multiple earthquakes during the last millennium, while net relative sea-level fall over the last 2000–5000 years may explain the lack of evidence for older earthquakes.

Records of complete earthquake cycles are rare. Analysis of historical nautical charts and modern GPS data that record a full earthquake cycle in Chile show that great earthquakes can create small amounts of permanent uplift. Individual great earthquakes are posited to release the elastic strain energy that has accumulated over centuries by the gradual movement of tectonic plates1,2. However, knowledge of plate deformation during a complete seismic cycle—two successive great earthquakes and the intervening interseismic period—remains incomplete3. A complete seismic cycle began in south-central Chile in 1835 with an earthquake of about magnitude 8.5 (refs 4, 5) and ended in 2010 with a magnitude 8.8 earthquake6. During the first earthquake, an uplift of Isla Santa Maria by 2.4 to 3 m was documented4,5. In the second earthquake, the island was uplifted7 by 1.8 m. Here we use nautical surveys made in 1804, after the earthquake in 1835 and in 1886, together with modern echo sounder surveys and GPS measurements made immediately before and after the 2010 earthquake, to quantify vertical deformation through the complete seismic cycle. We find that in the period between the two earthquakes, Isla Santa Maria subsided by about 1.4 m. We simulate the patterns of vertical deformation with a finite-element model and find that they agree broadly with predictions from elastic rebound theory2. However, comparison with geomorphic and geologic records of millennial coastline emergence8,9 reveal that 10–20% of the vertical uplift could be permanent.

A combination of geological and historical records from south-central Chile provides a means to address general questions about the stability of megathrust rupture patches and the range of variation expected among earthquakes and tsunamis along a particular stretch of a subduction zone. The Tirua River estuary (38.3°S) records four large tsunamis and coseismic land-level changes over the past 450 years within the overlapping rupture zones of the great subduction-zone earthquakes of A.D. 1960 (Mw 9.5) and 2010 (Mw 8.8). Sand layers 2 km up the Tirua River represent the 2010 and 1960 tsunamis and two historical tsunamis, most likely in A.D. 1751 and 1575. Differing land-level changes during these earthquakes likely denote differences in the spatial distribution of slip on the megathrust in both the strike and dip directions within the overlapping rupture zone, with the uplift at Tirua in 1751 and 2010 probably caused by slip extending farther landward and to greater depth than in 1575 and 1960, which showed subsidence or little change.

Sediment yield in the San Pedro Lake watershed, inferred from sedimentation in the lake, can be related to land use changes shown on aerial photographs taken during the period 1943–1994. In this watershed, which covers 4·5 km2 of mountainous terrain in San Pedro County, central Chile, the area of native forest species decreased from 70 per cent in 1943 to 13 per cent in 1994. During this same period, the area of pine plantations increased from 4 to 46 per cent. To study effects of these changes, we took a core from the centre of the lake and estimated sedimentation rates by 210Pb dating, which we checked with 137Cs and pine pollen. The results show that sedimentation rate ranged from 5 mg cm−2 a−1 in the late 1800s to 60 mg cm−2 a−1 in the late 1960s. These rates, together with assumptions about the production and delivery of the sediment, give corresponding figures for sediment yields with maximum values close to 1 t ha−1 a−1. Sediment yield between 1955 and 1994 closely tracks the total land use change that can be detected, irrespective of land use type, on sets of aerial photographs taken four to 18 years apart. However, this measure of land use change, while convenient and successful as a predictor of historical erosion, may be unreliable because it probably excludes many changes that occurred in long intervals between successive photographs. Copyright © 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Two different methodologies were used for estimating the historical variations in soil losses for a lacustrine watershed in the Nahuelbuta Mountain Range (Laguna Chica de San Pedro, VIII Region). The first approach is based on the Universal Soil Loss Equation (USLE), while the second one focuses on an isotopic analysis ( 210Pb) of the lake sediments. In both cases, important temporal variations in sediment production were obtained. Values estimated with the USLE equation ranged from 0.45 to 1.00 t ha - 1 yr- 1 . Alternatively, values determined by isotopic analysis were between 0.10 and 1.16 t ha-1 yr- 1 . Comparing the results of both methodologies, similar tendencies can be observed for the years 1955-1981. However, some significant differences appeared both at the beginning and at the end of 1943-1955 and 1981-1994. This could be explained by the low resolution of USLE, since in this study it cannot distinguish the differential soil protection offered by native forest or exotic forestry.

El análisis de la evolución del repoblamiento y uso de áreas afectadas postsunami, cobra importancia después de los últimos eventos catastróficos de Chile y Japón. Sin embargo, por tratarse de eventos recientes, se carece de una perspectiva de largo término. El presente estudio explora la evolución del repoblamiento y actividades productivas de un poblado ícono de la destrucción generada por una catástrofe ocurrida en Chile, hace medio siglo: el terremoto y tsunami de 1960 en Corral. El estudio se desarrolló a través de tres métodos: i) análisis de fotografías aéreas antiguas, ii) encuestas a sobrevivientes, y iii) análisis de los Instrumentos de Planificación Territorial (IPTs) entre 1960 y 2009. Los resultados indican que las áreas inundadas en 1960 fueron nuevamente repobladas y que la percepción actual frente al riesgo es baja. Por otro lado, se detectó la falta de carácter normativo de esta temática en los IPTs vigentes a nivel comunal. Post-tsunami analysis of the evolution of resettlement and land use changes in affected areas has become particularly important following the latest catastrophic events in Chile and Japan. Nevertheless, due to the recent nature of these events there is a lack of long-term perspectives. The present study explores the evolution of resettlement and productive activities within a town representative of the destruction generated by the catastrophe that occurred in Chile half a century ago: the earthquake and tsunami of 1960 in Corral. The study used three main methods: i) analysis of old aerial photographs, ii) interviews with survivors, and iii) analysis of Instruments of Territorial Planning (IPTs) between 1960 and 2009. The results show the 1960 inundated areas were resettled again and that the current risk awareness is low. Additionally, it was detected that there is a lack of regulation regarding this topic in the IPTs in existence at a local level.

The Maule earthquake (Mw 8.8) that affected south-central Chile on February 27, 2010 was preceded by the 1835 event documented by FitzRoy and Darwin. The relation between both events has been controversial. Fault slip in 2010 estimated by Lorito et al. (2011) is less than expected from 175 years of strain accumulation, leading them to conclude only limited overlap between the 2010 and 1835 events, and that a Mw 7.5-8 event could still strike the Concepción region. However, Lorito et al. 's model was based on displacements obtained from only 6 GPS stations and underpredicts observations from recent studies. Here we show that an alternative model based on 169 GPS displacements reproduces the data better, suggesting Lorito et al. 's main conclusion is not correct. Based on a slip deficit map, we suggest the seismic gap opened in 1835 was most likely closed in 2010.

Splay faults are thrusts that emerge from the plate boundaries of subduction zones. Such structures have been mapped at several convergent margins and their activity commonly ascribed to large megathrust earthquakes. However, the behavior of splay faults during the earthquake cycle is poorly constrained because typically these structures are located offshore and are difficult to access. Here we use geologic mapping combined with space and land geodesy, as well as offshore sonar data, to document surface-fault ruptures and coastal uplift at Isla Santa Maria in south-central Chile (37 degrees S) caused by the 27 February 2010 Maule earthquake (M-w 8.8). During the earthquake, the island was tilted parallel to the margin, and normal faults ruptured the surface and adjacent ocean bottom. We associate tilt and crestal normal faulting with growth of an anticline above a blind reverse fault rooted in the Nazca-South America plate boundary, which slipped during the Maule earthquake. The splay fault system has formed in an area of reduced coseismic plate-boundary slip, suggesting that anelastic deformation in the upper plate may have restrained the 2010 megathrust rupture. Surface fault breaks were accompanied by prominent discharge of fluids. Our field observations support the notion that splay faulting may frequently complement and influence the rupture of subduction-zone earthquakes.

Historical earthquakes of Chile’s metropolitan region include a previously uncatalogued earthquake that occurred on 7 August 1580 in the Julian calendar. We found an authoritative account of this earthquake in a letter written four days later in Santiago and now archived in Spain. The letter tells of a destructive earthquake that struck Santiago and its environs. In its reported effects it surpassed the one in the same city in 1575, until now presumed to be the only earthquake in the first century of central Chile’s written history. It is not yet possible to identify the source of the 1580 earthquake but viable candidates include both the plate boundary and Andean faults at shallows depths around Santiago. By occurring just five years after another large earthquake, the 1580 earthquake casts doubt on the completeness of the region’s historical earthquake catalog and the periodicity of its large earthquakes. That catalog, based on eyewitness accounts compiled mainly by Alexander Perrey and Fernand Montessus de Ballore, tells of large Chile’s metropolitan region earthquakes in 1575, 1647, 1730, 1822, 1906 and 1985. The addition of a large earthquake in 1580 implies greater variability in recurrence intervals and may also mean greater variety in earthquake sources.

Coseismic coastal uplift has been quantified using sessile intertidal organisms after several great earthquakes following FitzRoy's pioneer measurements in 1835. A dense survey of such markers may complement space geodetic data to obtain an accurate distribution of fault slip and earthquake segmentation. However, uplift estimates based on diverse intertidal organisms tend to differ, because of few methodological and comparative studies. Here, we calibrate and estimate coastal uplift in the southern segment of the 2010 Maule, Chile earthquake ( M w = 8.8) using >1100 post-earthquake elevation measurements of the sessile mussel Perumytilus purpuratus . This mussel is the predominant competitor for rocky shores all along the Pacific coast of South America, where it forms fringes or belts distinctively in the middle intertidal zone. These belts are centered at mean sea level and their width should equal one third of the tidal range. We measured belt widths close to this value at 40% of the sites, but overall widths are highly variable due to the unevenness in belt tops; belt bases, in turn, are rather regular. Belt top unevenness apparently results from locally-enhanced wave splash, whereas belt base evenness is controlled by predation. According to our measurements made beyond the earthquake rupture, the belt base is at the bottom of the middle intertidal zone, and thus we propose to estimate coastal uplift using the belt base mean elevation plus one sixth of the tidal range to reach mean sea level. Within errors our estimates agree with GPS displacements but differ from other methods. Comparisons of joint inversions for megathrust slip suggest combining space geodetic data with estimates from intertidal organisms may locally increase the detail of slip distributions.

Durante el proceso de colonizacion espanola la madera de alerce se transformo en el principal recurso economico de Chiloe, generandose una importante actividad mercantil sustentada en la tala de dicha especie arborea. Mediante un analisis historico documental, que abarca desde el siglo XVI al XIX, se examino la evolucion de la tala y del comercio maderero local, evaluandose sus efectos ambientales sobre la cobertura boscosa original del territorio. Los resultados obtenidos permiten constatar que la tala colonial del alerce habria generado solo una moderada alteracion de los alerzales mas accesibles, en comparacion a lo ocurrido en los inicios de la Republica tras la notoria intensificacion de la explotacion maderera. En consecuencia se descarta la tradicional idea de la desaparicion o extincion de alerzales en Chiloe durante el dominio colonial.

Soil erosion increases after building downward ridges along steep hillslopes, in particular during the first winter. This erosion decreases when trees grow, but runoff increases. This study presents results of erosion under five different treatments: (i) soil cover with native vegetation, (ii) bare downward ridges, (iii) downward ridges with six year-old avocado orchard, (iv) downward ridges with plant cover and (v) downward ridges covered with agroindustrial waste sludge. The results revealed 20 t ha-1 of soil erosion during the first year after ridges were built, while mitigation measures can reduce erosion in 90%. Adult orchard showed the largest runoff, which probably is due to the effect of a high and about constant soil moisture during irrigation period and smaller infiltration capacity of eroded soil. La erosion de suelos en un huerto de paltos cultivados en camellones a favor de pendiente es alta en la condicion de camellon desnudo, especialmente durante el primer invierno. Luego, la perdida de suelo disminuye con el desarrollo de los arboles, ocurriendo lo contrario con la escorrentia. Esta practica, masificada en Chile central durante las ultimas decadas, deja el suelo descubierto y disgregado, favoreciendo la erosion y escorrentia. En el presente trabajo se cuantifica el transporte de sedimentos durante al menos tres anos bajo tres cubiertas diferentes: i) antes de la preparacion de suelo, con vegetacion nativa, ii) camellon desnudo y iii) camellon con paltos adultos. De igual forma, se evaluan medidas de mitigacion como i) camellon con cobertura herbacea y ii) camellon con lodos de agroindustria. Los resultados muestran una perdida de mas de 20 t ha-1 de suelo durante el primer invierno tras el establecimiento de camellones, en tanto que las medidas de mitigacion reducen la erosion un 90%. La mayor escorrentia registrada en el huerto se debe, probablemente, al efecto del riego y la menor infiltracion de un suelo ya erosionado.

Past ice lobe behaviour at Laguna San Rafael is described in documents provided by Spanish and then Chilean explorers from the late seventeenth to the early twentieth centuries. These records begin in AD 1675, when temperate conditions, probably similar to those at present, prevailed. At that point, the glacier was confined within its valley, not penetrating the Laguna. The glacier advanced noticeably during the nineteenth century and probably reached a maximum position for the `Little Ice Age' around AD 1875. The historical sources suggest a slight retreat in AD 1904 in relation to the conditions prevailing 29 years earlier. The historical data show that the eighteenth to nineteenth century cooling period at San Rafael glacier was within the temporal window of the European `Little Ice Age'. This work provides independent, direct historical evidence for the occurrence of this event in southern Chile.

It is commonly thought that the longer the time since last earthquake, the larger the next earthquake's slip will be. But this logical predictor of earthquake size, unsuccessful for large earthquakes on a strike-slip fault, fails also with the giant 1960 Chile earthquake of magnitude 9.5 (ref. 3). Although the time since the preceding earthquake spanned 123 years (refs 4, 5), the estimated slip in 1960, which occurred on a fault between the Nazca and South American tectonic plates, equalled 250-350 years' worth of the plate motion. Thus the average interval between such giant earthquakes on this fault should span several centuries. Here we present evidence that such long intervals were indeed typical of the last two millennia. We use buried soils and sand layers as records of tectonic subsidence and tsunami inundation at an estuary midway along the 1960 rupture. In these records, the 1960 earthquake ended a recurrence interval that had begun almost four centuries before, with an earthquake documented by Spanish conquistadors in 1575. Two later earthquakes, in 1737 and 1837, produced little if any subsidence or tsunami at the estuary and they therefore probably left the fault partly loaded with accumulated plate motion that the 1960 earthquake then expended.

Las características biogeográficas de Chiloé limitaron la introducción y propagación de las especies animales y vegetales exóticas que sustentaban la tradicional actividad agropecuaria hispana colonial. Dicho fenómeno condicionó la ocupación y explotación económica del territorio, contribuyendo a mitigar el tipo y extensión de las alteraciones ambientales generadas por el proceso colonizador. A través de un análisis histórico documental, que abarca los siglos XVI, XVII y XVIII, en el presente trabajo se reconocen la situación ambiental prehispánica del territorio e implicancias ambientales del poblamiento colonial; el proceso de adaptación al entorno ecológico y evolución de las actividades productivas desarrolladas por los colonos. Los principales resultados obtenidos indican que no hubo transformaciones ambientales masivas y generalizadas, concluyéndose que los efectos ambientales derivados de la intervención española se evidenciaron principalmente a nivel local, pudiéndose constatar que hacia fines del siglo XVIII el paisaje ecológico de Chiloé aún conservaba muchas de sus características originales