1. A new screening of preterm birth in gestation with short cervix after pessary plus progesterone
- Author
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Marcelo Santucci França, Valter Lacerda de Andrade Jr., Alan Roberto Hatanaka, Roberto Santos, Francisco Herlanio Costa Carvalho, Maria Laura Costa, Gabriela Ubeda Santucci França, Rosiane Mattar, Ben Willem Mol, Antonio Fernandes Moron, and Rodolfo de Carvalho Pacagnella
- Subjects
Preterm birth ,Cervix uteri ,Progesterone ,Logistic models ,Screening ,Pessaries ,Ultrasonography ,Gynecology and obstetrics ,RG1-991 - Abstract
Abstract Objective This study aims to create a new screening for preterm birth < 34 weeks after gestation with a cervical length (CL) ≤ 30 mm, based on clinical, demographic, and sonographic characteristics. Methods This is a post hoc analysis of a randomized clinical trial (RCT), which included pregnancies, in middle-gestation, screened with transvaginal ultrasound. After observing inclusion criteria, the patient was invited to compare pessary plus progesterone (PP) versus progesterone only (P) (1:1). The objective was to determine which variables were associated with severe preterm birth using logistic regression (LR). The area under the curve (AUC), sensitivity, specificity, and positive predictive value (PPV) and negative predictive value (NPV) were calculated for both groups after applying LR, with a false positive rate (FPR) set at 10%. Results The RCT included 936 patients, 475 in PP and 461 in P. The LR selected: ethnics white, absence of previous curettage, previous preterm birth, singleton gestation, precocious identification of short cervix, CL < 14.7 mm, CL in curve > 21.0 mm. The AUC (CI95%), sensitivity, specificity, PPV, and PNV, with 10% of FPR, were respectively 0.978 (0.961-0.995), 83.4%, 98.1%, 83.4% and 98.1% for PP < 34 weeks; and 0.765 (0.665-0.864), 38.7%, 92.1%, 26.1% and 95.4%, for P < 28 weeks. Conclusion Logistic regression can be effective to screen preterm birth < 34 weeks in patients in the PP Group and all pregnancies with CL ≤ 30 mm.
- Published
- 2024
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