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Summary: The increasing frequency and severity of droughts present a significant risk to vulnerable regions of the globe, potentially leading to substantial human displacement in extreme situations. Drought-induced displacement is a complex and multifaceted issue that can perpetuate cycles of poverty, exacerbate food and water scarcity, and reinforce socio-economic inequalities. However, our understanding of human mobility in drought scenarios is currently limited, inhibiting accurate predictions and effective policy responses. Drought-induced displacement is driven by numerous factors and identifying its key drivers, causal-effect lags, and consequential effects is often challenging, typically relying on mechanistic models and qualitative assumptions. This paper presents a novel, data-driven methodology, grounded in causal discovery, to retrieve the drivers of drought-induced displacement within Somalia from 2016 to 2023. Our model exposes the intertwined vulnerabilities and the leading times that connect drought impacts, water and food security systems along with episodes of violent conflict, emphasizing that causal mechanisms change across districts. These findings pave the way for the development of algorithms with the ability to learn from human mobility data, enhancing anticipatory action, policy formulation, and humanitarian aid.

Abstract Climate change is leading to more extreme weather hazards, forcing human populations to be displaced. We employ explainable machine learning techniques to model and understand internal displacement flows and patterns from observational data alone. For this purpose, a large, harmonized, global database of disaster-induced movements in the presence of floods, storms, and landslides during 2016–2021 is presented. We account for environmental, societal, and economic factors to predict the number of displaced persons per event in the affected regions. Here we show that displacements can be primarily attributed to the combination of poor household conditions and intense precipitation, as revealed through the interpretation of the trained models using both Shapley values and causality-based methods. We hence provide empirical evidence that differential or uneven vulnerability exists and provide a means for its quantification, which could help advance evidence-based mitigation and adaptation planning efforts.

Abstract Land, atmosphere and climate interact constantly and at different spatial and temporal scales. In this paper we rely on causal discovery methods to infer spatial patterns of causal relations between several key variables of the carbon and water cycles: gross primary productivity, latent heat energy flux for evaporation, surface air temperature, precipitation, soil moisture and radiation. We introduce a methodology based on the convergent cross-mapping (CCM) technique. Despite its good performance in general, CCM is sensitive to (even moderate) noise levels and hyper-parameter selection. We present a robust CCM (RCCM) that relies on temporal bootstrapping decision scores and the derivation of more stringent cross-map skill scores. The RCCM method is combined with the information-geometric causal inference (IGCI) method to address the problem of strong and instantaneous variable coupling, another important and long-standing issue of CCM. The proposed methodology allows to derive spatially explicit global maps of causal relations between the involved variables and retrieve the underlying complexity of the interactions. Results are generally consistent with reported patterns and process understanding, and constitute a new way to quantify and understand carbon and water fluxes interactions.

Abstract Climate change exacerbates the occurence of extreme droughts and heatwaves, increasing the frequency and intensity of large wildfires across the globe. Forecasting wildfire danger and uncovering the drivers behind fire events become central for understanding relevant climate‐land surface feedback and aiding wildfire management. In this work, we leverage Deep Learning (DL) to predict the next day's wildfire danger in a fire‐prone part of the Eastern Mediterranean and explainable Artificial Intelligence (xAI) to diagnose model attributions. We implement DL models that capture the temporal and spatio‐temporal context, generalize well for extreme wildfires, and demonstrate improved performance over the traditional Fire Weather Index. Leveraging xAI, we identify the substantial contribution of wetness‐related variables and unveil the temporal focus of the models. The variability of the contribution of the input variables across wildfire events hints into different wildfire mechanisms. The presented methodology paves the way to more robust, accurate, and trustworthy data‐driven anticipation of wildfires.

While the synergy between thermal, optical, and passive microwave observations is well known for the estimation of soil moisture and vegetation parameters, the use of remote sensing sources based on the Global Navigation Satellite Systems (GNSS) remains unexplored. During an airborne campaign performed in August 2014, over an agricultural area in the Duero basin (Spain), an innovative sensor developed by the Universitat Politècnica de Catalunya-Barcelona Tech based on GNSS Reflectometry (GNSS-R) was tested for soil moisture estimation. The objective was to evaluate the combined use of GNSS-R observations with a time-collocated Landsat 8 image for soil moisture retrieval under semi-arid climate conditions. As a ground reference dataset, an intensive field campaign was carried out. The Light Airborne Reflectometer for GNSS-R Observations (LARGO) observations, together with optical, infrared, and thermal bands from Landsat 8, were linked through a semi-empirical model to field soil moisture. Different combinations of vegetation and water indices with LARGO subsets were tested and compared to the in situ measurements. Results showed that the joint use of GNSS-R reflectivity, water/vegetation indices and thermal maps from Landsat 8 not only allows capturing soil moisture spatial gradients under very dry soil conditions, but also holds great promise for accurate soil moisture estimation (correlation coefficients greater than 0.5 were obtained from comparison with in situ data).

A considerable amount of water is stored in vegetation, especially in regions with high precipitation rates. Knowledge of the vegetation water status is essential to monitor changes in ecosystem health and to assess the vegetation influence on the water budget. In this study, we develop and validate an approach to estimate the gravimetric vegetation water content (mg), defined as the amount of water [kg] per wet biomass [kg], based on the attenuation of microwave radiation through vegetation. mg is expected to be more closely related to the actual water status of a plant than the area-based vegetation water content (VWC), which expresses the amount of water [kg] per unit area [m2]. We conducted the study at the field scale over an entire growth cycle of a winter wheat field. Tower-based L-band microwave measurements together with in situ measurements of vegetation properties (i.e., vegetation height, and mg for validation) were performed. The results indicated a strong agreement between the in situ measured and retrieved mg (R2 of 0.89), with mean and standard deviation (STD) values of 0.55 and 0.26 for the in situ measured mg and 0.57 and 0.19 for the retrieved mg, respectively. Phenological changes in crop water content were captured, with the highest values of mg obtained during the growth phase of the vegetation (i.e., when the water content of the plants and the biomass were increasing) and the lowest values when the vegetation turned fully senescent (i.e., when the water content of the plant was the lowest). Comparing in situ measured mg and VWC, we found their highest agreement with an R2 of 0.95 after flowering (i.e., when the vegetation started to lose water) and their main differences with an R2 of 0.21 during the vegetative growth of the wheat vegetation (i.e., where the mg was constant and VWC increased due to structural changes in vegetation). In addition, we performed a sensitivity analysis on the vegetation volume fraction (δ), an input parameter to the proposed approach which represents the volume percentage of solid plant material in air. This δ-parameter is shown to have a distinct impact on the thermal emission at L-band, but keeping δ constant during the growth cycle of the winter wheat appeared to be valid for these mg retrievals.

This work summarizes the activities carried out by the SMOS (Soil Moisture and Ocean Salinity) Barcelona Expert Center (SMOS-BEC) team in conjunction with the CIALE/Universidad de Salamanca team, within the framework of the European Space Agency (ESA) CALIMAS project in preparation for the SMOS mission and during its first year of operation. Under these activities several studies were performed, ranging from Level 1 (calibration and image reconstruction) to Level 4 (land pixel disaggregation techniques, by means of data fusion with higher resolution data from optical/infrared sensors). Validation of SMOS salinity products by means of surface drifters developed ad-hoc, and soil moisture products over the REMEDHUS site (Zamora, Spain) are also presented. Results of other preparatory activities carried out to improve the performance of eventual SMOS follow-on missions are presented, including GNSS-R to infer the sea state correction needed for improved ocean salinity retrievals and land surface parameters. Results from CALIMAS show a satisfactory performance of the MIRAS instrument, the accuracy and efficiency of the algorithms implemented in the ground data processors, and explore the limits of spatial resolution of soil moisture products using data fusion, as well as the feasibility of GNSS-R techniques for sea state determination and soil moisture monitoring.

The Soil Moisture and Ocean Salinity (SMOS) mission of the European Space Agency (ESA), launched on November 2009, is an unprecedented initiative to globally monitor surface soil moisture using a novel 2-D L-band interferometric radiometer concept. Airborne campaigns and ground-based field experiments have proven that radiometers operating at L-band are highly sensitive to soil moisture, due to the large contrast between the dielectric constant of soil minerals and water. Still, soil moisture inversion from passive microwave observations is complex, since the microwave emission from soils depends strongly on its moisture content but also on other surface characteristics such as soil type, soil roughness, surface temperature and vegetation cover, and their contributions must be carefully de-coupled in the retrieval process. In the present study, different soil moisture retrieval configurations are examined, depending on whether prior information is used in the inversion process or not. Retrievals are formulated in terms of vertical (Tvv) and horizontal (Thh) polarizations separately and using the first Stokes parameter (TI ), over six main surface conditions combining dry, moist and wet soils with bare and vegetation-covered surfaces. A sensitivity analysis illustrates the influence that the geophysical variables dominating the Earth’s emission at L-band have on the precision of the retrievals, for each configuration. It shows that, if adequate constraints on the ancillary data are added, the algorithm should converge to more accurate estimations. SMOS-like brightness temperatures are also generated by the SMOS End-to-end Performance Simulator (SEPS) to assess the retrieval errors produced by the different cost function configurations. Better soil moisture retrievals are obtained when the inversion is constrained with prior information, in line with the sensitivity study, and more robust estimates are obtained using TI than using Tvv and Thh. This paper analyzes key issues to devise an optimal soil moisture inversion algorithm for SMOS and results can be readily transferred to the upcoming SMOS data to produce the much needed global maps of the Earth’s surface soil moisture.

Soil moisture (SM) is an important component of the Earth’s surface water balance and by extension the energy balance, regulating the land surface temperature (LST) and evapotranspiration (ET). Nowadays, there are two missions dedicated to monitoring the Earth’s surface SM using L-band radiometers: ESA’s Soil Moisture and Ocean Salinity (SMOS) and NASA’s Soil Moisture Active Passive (SMAP). LST is remotely sensed using thermal infrared (TIR) sensors on-board satellites, such as NASA’s Terra/Aqua MODIS or ESA & EUMETSAT’s MSG SEVIRI. This study provides an assessment of SM and LST dynamics at daily and seasonal scales, using 4 years (2011–2014) of in situ and satellite observations over the central part of the river Duero basin in Spain. Specifically, the agreement of instantaneous SM with a variety of LST-derived parameters is analyzed to better understand the fundamental link of the SM–LST relationship through ET and thermal inertia. Ground-based SM and LST measurements from the REMEDHUS network are compared to SMOS SM and MODIS LST spaceborne observations. ET is obtained from the HidroMORE regional hydrological model. At the daily scale, a strong anticorrelation is observed between in situ SM and maximum LST (R ≈ − 0.6 to −0.8), and between SMOS SM and MODIS LST Terra/Aqua day (R ≈ − 0.7). At the seasonal scale, results show a stronger anticorrelation in autumn, spring and summer (in situ R ≈ − 0.5 to −0.7; satellite R ≈ − 0.4 to −0.7) indicating SM–LST coupling, than in winter (in situ R ≈ +0.3; satellite R ≈ − 0.3) indicating SM–LST decoupling. These different behaviors evidence changes from water-limited to energy-limited moisture flux across seasons, which are confirmed by the observed ET evolution. In water-limited periods, SM is extracted from the soil through ET until critical SM is reached. A method to estimate the soil critical SM is proposed. For REMEDHUS, the critical SM is estimated to be ∼0.12 m 3 /m 3 , stable over the study period and consistent between in situ and satellite observations. A better understanding of the SM–LST link could not only help improving the representation of LST in current hydrological and climate prediction models, but also refining SM retrieval or microwave-optical disaggregation algorithms, related to ET and vegetation status.

A new index for agricultural drought monitoring is presented based on the integration of different soil/vegetation remote sensing observations. The synergistic fusion of the surface soil moisture (SSM) from the Soil Moisture and Ocean Salinity (SMOS) mission, with the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) derived land surface temperature (LST), and water/vegetation indices for agricultural drought monitoring was tested. The rationale of the approach is based on the inverse relationship between LST, vegetation condition and soil moisture content. Thus, the proposed Soil Moisture Agricultural Drought Index (SMADI) combines the soil and temperature conditions while including the lagged response of vegetation. SMADI was retrieved every eight days at 500 m spatial resolution for the whole Iberian Peninsula (IP) from 2010 to 2014, and a time lag of eight days was used to account for the plant response to the varying soil/climatic conditions. The results of SMADI compared well with other agricultural indices in a semiarid area in the Duero basin, in Spain, and also with a climatic index in areas of the Iberian Peninsula under contrasted climatic conditions. Based on a standard classification of drought severity, the proposed index allowed for a coherent description of the drought conditions of the IP during the study period.

A wide variety of methods exist nowadays to address the important problem of estimating crop yields from available remote sensing and climate data. Among the different approaches, machine learning (ML) techniques are being increasingly adopted, since they allow exploiting all the information on crop progress and environmental conditions and their relations with crop yield, achieving reliable and accurate estimations. However, interpreting the relationships learned by the ML models, and hence getting insights about the problem, remains a complex and usually unexplored task. Without accountability, confidence and trust in the ML models can be compromised. Here, we develop interpretable ML approaches for crop yield estimation that allow us investigating the most informative agro-ecological drivers and influencial regions learned by the models. We conduct a set of experiments to learn the selection of agro-ecological drivers leading to best estimations of main crops grown in Europe: corn, barley and wheat. As input data, we consider a variety of multi-scale Earth observation products sensitive to canopy greenness (e.g. EVI and LAI), its water-uptake dynamics (e.g. VOD) and available water (soil moisture), as well as climatic variables from the ERA5-Land reanalysis (e.g. temperature and radiation). Our results show that the best performances (R2>0.55 for corn and R2>0.8 for both barley and wheat) are obtained when descriptors of soil, vegetation, and atmosphere status are used as input in the ML models. This combination of variables outperforms the results obtained using single variables as inputs or all variables altogether. We then further analyze the relations of input features with crop yield in the developed models by means of Gaussian Process Regression (GPR). We show how the information learned by the GPR model allows us to identify atypical or anomalous crop seasons across the study region, and investigate the underlying factors behind crop progress and failure in Europe.

The capacity of six water stress factors (ε′i) to track daily light use efficiency (ε) of water-limited ecosystems was evaluated. These factors are computed with remote sensing operational products and a limited amount of ground data: ε′1 uses ground precipitation and air temperature, and satellite incoming global solar radiation; ε′2 uses ground air temperature, and satellite actual evapotranspiration and incoming global solar radiation; ε′3 uses satellite actual and potential evapotranspiration; ε′4 uses satellite soil moisture; ε′5 uses satellite-derived photochemical reflectance index; and ε′6 uses ground vapor pressure deficit. These factors were implemented in a production efficiency model based on Monteith’s approach in order to assess their performance for modeling gross primary production (GPP). Estimated GPP was compared to reference GPP from eddy covariance (EC) measurements (GPPEC) in three sites placed in the Iberian Peninsula (two open shrublands and one savanna). ε′i were correlated to ε, which was calculated by dividing GPPEC by ground measured photosynthetically active radiation (PAR) and satellite-derived fraction of absorbed PAR. Best results were achieved by ε′1, ε′2, ε′3 and ε′4 explaining around 40% and 50% of ε variance in open shurblands and savanna, respectively. In terms of GPP, R2 ≈ 0.70 were obtained in these cases.

Soil Moisture and Ocean Salinity (SMOS) is the first satellite mission capable of measuring sea surface salinity and soil moisture from space. Its novel instrument (the L-band radiometer MIRAS) has required the development of new algorithms to process SMOS data, a challenging task due to many processing issues and the difficulties inherent in a new technology. In the wake of SMOS, a new community of users has grown, requesting new products and applications, and extending the interest in this novel brand of satellite services. This paper reviews the role played by the Barcelona Expert Centre under the direction of Jordi Font, SMOS co-principal investigator. The main scientific activities and achievements and the future directions are discussed, highlighting the importance of the oceanographic applications of the mission.

This article summarizes some of the activities in which Jordi Font, research professor and head of the Department of Physical and Technological Oceanography, Institut de Ciències del Mar (CSIC, Spanish National Research Council) in Barcelona, has been involved as co-Principal Investigator for Ocean Salinity of the European Space Agency Soil Moisture and Ocean Salinity (SMOS) Earth Explorer Mission from the perspective of the Remote Sensing Lab at the Universitat Politècnica de Catalunya. We have probably left out some of his many contributions to salinity remote sensing, but we hope that this review will give an idea of the importance of his work. We focus on the following issues: 1) the new accurate measurements of the sea water dielectric constant, 2) the WISE and EuroSTARRS field experiments that helped to define the geophysical model function relating brightness temperature to sea state, 3) the FROG 2003 field experiment that helped to understand the emission of sea foam, 4) GNSS-R techniques for improving sea surface salinity retrieval, 5) instrument characterization campaigns, and 6) the operational implementation of the Processing Centre of Levels 3 and 4 at the SMOS Barcelona Expert Centre.

In the last decade, technological advances led to the launch of two satellite missions dedicated to measure the Earth’s surface soil moisture (SSM): the ESA’s Soil Moisture and Ocean Salinity (SMOS) launched in 2009, and the NASA’s Soil Moisture Active Passive (SMAP) launched in 2015. The two satellites have an L-band microwave radiometer on-board to measure the Earth’s surface emission. These measurements (brightness temperatures TB) are then used to generate global maps of SSM every three days with a spatial resolution of about 30−40 km and a target accuracy of 0.04 m3/m3. To meet local applications needs, different approaches have been proposed to spatially disaggregate SMOS and SMAP TB or their SSM products. They rely on synergies between multi-sensor observations and are built upon different physical assumptions. In this study, temporal and spatial characteristics of six operational SSM products derived from SMOS and SMAP are assessed in order to diagnose their distinct features, and the rationale behind them. The study is focused on the Iberian Peninsula and covers the period from April 2015 to December 2017. A temporal inter-comparison analysis is carried out using in situ SSM data from the Soil Moisture Measurements Station Network of the University of Salamanca (REMEDHUS) to evaluate the impact of the spatial scale of the different products (1, 3, 9, 25, and 36 km), and their correspondence in terms of temporal dynamics. A spatial analysis is conducted for the whole Iberian Peninsula with emphasis on the added-value that the enhanced resolution products provide based on the microwave-optical (SMOS/ERA5/MODIS) or the active−passive microwave (SMAP/Sentinel-1) sensor fusion. Our results show overall agreement among time series of the products regardless their spatial scale when compared to in situ measurements. Still, higher spatial resolutions would be needed to capture local features such as small irrigated areas that are not dominant at the 1-km pixel scale. The degree to which spatial features are resolved by the enhanced resolution products depend on the multi-sensor synergies employed (at TB or soil moisture level), and on the nature of the fine-scale information used. The largest disparities between these products occur in forested areas, which may be related to the reduced sensitivity of high-resolution active microwave and optical data to soil properties under dense vegetation.

Soil moisture observations are expected to play an important role in monitoring global climate trends. However, measuring soil moisture is challenging because of its high spatial and temporal variability. Point-scale in-situ measurements are scarce and, excluding model-based estimates, remote sensing remains the only practical way to observe soil moisture at a global scale. The ESA-led Soil Moisture and Ocean Salinity (SMOS) mission, launched in 2009, measures the Earth’s surface natural emissivity at L-band and provides highly accurate soil moisture information with a 3-day revisiting time. Using the first six full annual cycles of SMOS measurements (June 2010–June 2016), this study investigates the temporal variability of global surface soil moisture. The soil moisture time series are decomposed into a linear trend, interannual, seasonal, and high-frequency residual (i.e., subseasonal) components. The relative distribution of soil moisture variance among its temporal components is first illustrated at selected target sites representative of terrestrial biomes with distinct vegetation type and seasonality. A comparison with GLDAS-Noah and ERA5 modeled soil moisture at these sites shows general agreement in terms of temporal phase except in areas with limited temporal coverage in winter season due to snow. A comparison with ground-based estimates at one of the sites shows good agreement of both temporal phase and absolute magnitude. A global asseSMent of the dominant features and spatial distribution of soil moisture variability is then provided. Results show that, despite still being a relatively short data set, SMOS data provides coherent and reliable variability patterns at both seasonal and interannual scales. Subseasonal components are characterized as white noise. The observed linear trends, based upon one strong El Niño event in 2016, are consistent with the known El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) teleconnections. This work provides new insight into recent changes in surface soil moisture and can help further our understanding of the terrestrial branch of the water cycle and of global patterns of climate anomalies. Also, it is an important support to multi-decadal soil moisture observational data records, hydrological studies and land data assimilation projects using remotely sensed observations.

Capability for sea surface salinity observation was an important gap in ocean remote sensing in the last few decades of the 20th century. New technological developments during the 1990s at the European Space Agency led to the proposal of SMOS (Soil Moisture and Ocean Salinity), an Earth explorer opportunity mission based on the use of a microwave interferometric radiometer, MIRAS (Microwave Imaging Radiometer with Aperture Synthesis). SMOS, the first satellite ever addressing the observation of ocean salinity from space, was successfully launched in November 2009. The determination of salinity from the MIRAS radiometric measurements at 1.4 GHz is a complex procedure that requires high performance from the instrument and accurate modelling of several physical processes that impact on the microwave emission of the ocean’s surface. This paper introduces SMOS in the ocean remote sensing context, and summarizes the MIRAS principles of operation and the SMOS salinity retrieval approach. It describes the Spanish SMOS high-level data processing centre (CP34) and the SMOS Barcelona Expert Centre on Radiometric Calibration and Ocean Salinity (SMOS-BEC), and presents a preliminary validation of global sea surface salinity maps operationally produced by CP34.

The Radar Vegetation Index (RVI) is a well-established microwave metric of vegetation cover. The index utilizes measured linear scattering intensities from co- and cross-polarization and is normalized to ideally range from 0 to 1, increasing with vegetation cover. At long wavelengths (L-band) microwave scattering does not only contain information coming from vegetation scattering, but also from soil scattering (moisture & roughness) and therefore the standard formulation of RVI needs to be revised. Using global level SMAP L-band radar data, we illustrate that RVI runs up to 1.2, due to the pre-factor in the standard formulation not being adjusted to the scattering mechanisms at these low frequencies. Improvements on the RVI are subsequently proposed to obtain a normalized value range, to remove soil scattering influences as well as to mask out regions with dominant soil scattering at L-band (sparse or no vegetation cover). Two purely vegetation-based RVIs (called RVII and RVIII), are obtained by subtracting a forward modeled, attenuated soil scattering contribution from the measured backscattering intensities. Active and passive microwave information is used jointly to obtain the scattering contribution of the soil, using a physics-based multi-sensor approach; simulations from a particle model for polarimetric vegetation backscattering are utilized to calculate vegetation-based RVI-values without any soil scattering contribution. Results show that, due to the pre-factor in the standard formulation of RVI the index runs up to 1.2, atypical for an index normally ranging between zero and one. Correlation analysis between the improved radar vegetation indices (standard RVI and the indices with potential improvements RVII and RVIII) are used to evaluate the degree of independence of the indices from surface roughness and soil moisture contributions. The improved indices RVII and RVIII show reduced dependence on soil roughness and soil moisture. All RVI-indices examined indicate a coupled correlation to vegetation water content (plant moisture) as well as leaf area index (plant structure) and no single dependency, as often assumed. These results might improve the use of polarimetric radar signatures for mapping global vegetation.