Search

The exchange water fluxes between the Black Sea and the North Aegean Sea through the Dardanelles Strait constitute an essential factor for the general circulation of the region. The Black Sea Water (BSW) inflow to the Aegean plays an important role in the hydrography and circulation of the basin and can affect the North Aegean deep water formation processes. Numerical experiments evaluating the influence of the time-scale variability (synoptic and seasonal) and the seasonality (period of maximum/minimum) of the Black Sea Water inflow on the dynamics of the North Aegean basin were performed. The experiments were carried out for the period from August 2008 to October 2009, using observed upper and lower-layer fluxes from the Dardanelles Strait, high-resolution atmospheric forcing, and boundary conditions derived from an operational system (ALERMO). The large-scale spatial patterns of the circulation and the seasonal variability of the North Aegean circulation show that dynamics of the basin can effectively absorb most of the Black Sea Water inflow variability. The overall cyclonic circulation of the North Aegean Sea and the predominant cyclonic and anti-cyclonic features are robust and are little affected by the different lateral fluxes. However, differences in the seasonality of the BSW inflow have an important impact in the North Aegean water column structure, while the synoptic variability observed in the Black Sea Water inflow affects the kinetic energy of the basin and the pathway of the Black Sea Water plume.

We have studied the performances of (a) a two-way coupled atmosphere–ocean modeling system and (b) one-way coupled ocean model (forced by the atmosphere model), as compared to the available in situ measurements during and after a strong Adriatic bora wind event in February 2012, which led to extreme air–sea interactions. The simulations span the period between January and March 2012. The models used were ALADIN (Aire Limitée Adaptation dynamique Développement InterNational) (4.4 km resolution) on the atmosphere side and an Adriatic setup of Princeton ocean model (POM) (1°∕30 × 1°∕30 angular resolution) on the ocean side. The atmosphere–ocean coupling was implemented using the OASIS3-MCT model coupling toolkit. Two-way coupling ocean feedback to the atmosphere is limited to sea surface temperature. We have compared modeled atmosphere–ocean fluxes and sea temperatures from both setups to platform and CTD (conductivity, temperature, and depth) measurements from three locations in the northern Adriatic. We present objective verification of 2 m atmosphere temperature forecasts using mean bias and standard deviation of errors scores from 23 meteorological stations in the eastern part of Italy. We show that turbulent fluxes from both setups differ up to 20 % during the bora but not significantly before and after the event. When compared to observations, two-way coupling ocean temperatures exhibit a 4 times lower root mean square error (RMSE) than those from one-way coupled system. Two-way coupling improves sensible heat fluxes at all stations but does not improve latent heat loss. The spatial average of the two-way coupled atmosphere component is up to 0.3 °C colder than the one-way coupled setup, which is an improvement for prognostic lead times up to 20 h. Daily spatial average of the standard deviation of air temperature errors shows 0.15 °C improvement in the case of coupled system compared to the uncoupled. Coupled and uncoupled circulations in the northern Adriatic are predominantly wind-driven and show no significant mesoscale differences.

Modern ocean operational systems involve different groups and tools, in different regions and scales. Blending all these in a unique system with reliable forecasting capabilities is an important task. The efficiency of nesting procedures between different scale and resolution models are crucial in determining whether the dynamics at the different scales are well represented at each level or the nesting technique suppresses the dynamical features emerging from individual modelling components. In the present work, we investigate the role of the initialization of telescopically nested and with double horizontal resolution forecasting systems in the Eastern Mediterranean, comparing the results between weekly initialized experiments ("slave'' mode) and "free'' runs ("active'' mode) at the regional (Aegean-Levantine area) and shelf (Cyprus) scale. It is found that, although the main circulation pattern remains similar, the differences in the domain mean kinetic energy between the "slave'' and the "active'' experiments in the Aegean-Levantine region are large in both September 2004 and January 2005, with the "active'' being much more energetic, while in the Cyprus area differences are significantly smaller. The most pronounced differences in the circulation and sea surface temperature and salinity fields are observed in the Aegean Sea, during September 2004, related to the inflow and spreading of the Black Sea Water, and the Rhodes Gyre, during January 2005, related to small-scale eddy activity developed and surviving in the "active'' mode experiment that decreases the area of the gyre.

The main objective of this study is to investigate the variability of the thermohaline characteristics of the deep-water masses in the Aegean Sea and the possible impact of the regional atmospheric forcing variability by analyzing the available oceanographic and atmospheric datasets for the period of 1960–2012. During this period the variability of the deep water characteristics of the Aegean sub-basins is found to be very large as well as the diversity of the deep water characteristics among the sub-basins. The Central Aegean seems to play the key role in the Aegean deep water formation processes. Due to its small size, the Aegean Sea surface responds rapidly to the meteorological changes and/or the variability of the lateral fluxes and this variability propagates in the thermohaline characteristics of the deep water masses of the basin through deep water formation processes. There are many episodes characterized by a tight coupling of the atmosphere and the ocean during the examined period, with the Eastern Mediterranean Transient (EMT) being the most prominent case. We suggest that deep water formation is triggered mostly by the combination of preconditioning during early winter and/or previous winters together with the number of subsequent extreme events during present winter and not only by the total amount of the extreme heat loss winter days.

We have studied the performances of (a) a two-way coupled atmosphere-ocean modeling system and (b) one-way coupled ocean model (forced by the atmosphere model), as compared to the available in situ measurements during and after a strong Adriatic bora wind event in February 2012, which led to extreme air-sea interactions. The simulations span the period between January and March 2012. The models used were ALADIN (Aire Limiteé Adaptation dynamique Développement InterNational) (4.4 km resolution) on the atmosphere side and an Adriatic setup of Princeton ocean model (POM) (130 × 130 angular resolution) on the ocean side. The atmosphere-ocean coupling was implemented using the OASIS3-MCT model coupling toolkit. Two-way coupling ocean feedback to the atmosphere is limited to sea surface temperature. We have compared modeled atmosphere-ocean fluxes and sea temperatures from both setups to platform and CTD (conductivity, temperature, and depth) measurements from three locations in the northern Adriatic. We present objective verification of 2 m atmosphere temperature forecasts using mean bias and standard deviation of errors scores from 23 meteorological stations in the eastern part of Italy. We show that turbulent fluxes from both setups differ up to 20 % during the bora but not significantly before and after the event. When compared to observations, two-way coupling ocean temperatures exhibit a 4 times lower root mean square error (RMSE) than those from one-way coupled system. Two-way coupling improves sensible heat fluxes at all stations but does not improve latent heat loss. The spatial average of the two-way coupled atmosphere component is up to 0.3 °C colder than the one-way coupled setup, which is an improvement for prognostic lead times up to 20 h. Daily spatial average of the standard deviation of air temperature errors shows 0.15 °C improvement in the case of coupled system compared to the uncoupled. Coupled and uncoupled circulations in the northern Adriatic are predominantly wind-driven and show no significant mesoscale differences. © 2016 Author(s).

The exchange water fluxes between the Black Sea and the North Aegean Sea through the Dardanelles Strait constitute an essential factor for the general circulation of the region. The Black Sea Water (BSW) inflow to the Aegean plays an important role in the hydrography and circulation of the basin and can affect the North Aegean deep water formation processes. Numerical experiments evaluating the influence of the time-scale variability (synoptic and seasonal) and the seasonality (period of maximum/minimum) of the Black Sea Water inflow on the dynamics of the North Aegean basin were performed. The experiments were carried out for the period from August 2008 to October 2009, using observed upper and lower-layer fluxes from the Dardanelles Strait, high-resolution atmospheric forcing, and boundary conditions derived from an operational system (ALERMO). The large-scale spatial patterns of the circulation and the seasonal variability of the North Aegean circulation show that dynamics of the basin can effectively absorb most of the Black Sea Water inflow variability. The overall cyclonic circulation of the North Aegean Sea and the predominant cyclonic and anti-cyclonic features are robust and are little affected by the different lateral fluxes. However, differences in the seasonality of the BSW inflow have an important impact in the North Aegean water column structure, while the synoptic variability observed in the Black Sea Water inflow affects the kinetic energy of the basin and the pathway of the Black Sea Water plume. © 2016, Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg.

The inter-annual/decadal scale variability of the Aegean Sea Surface Temperature (SST) is investigated by means of long-term series of satellite-derived and in situ data. Monthly mean declouded SST maps are constructed over the 1985–2008 period, based on a re-analysis of AVHRR Oceans Pathfinder optimally interpolated data over the Aegean Sea. Basin-average SST time series are also constructed using the ICOADS in situ data over 1950–2006. Results indicate a small SST decreasing trend until the early nineties, and then a rapid surface warming consistent with the acceleration of the SST rise observed on the global ocean scale. Decadal-scale SST anomalies were found to be negatively correlated with the winter North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index over the last 60 years suggesting that along with global warming effects on the regional scale, a part of the long-term SST variability in the Aegean Sea is driven by large scale atmospheric natural variability patterns. In particular, the acceleration of surface warming in the Aegean Sea began nearly simultaneously with the NAO index abrupt shift in the mid-nineties from strongly positive values to weakly positive/negative values.

Twenty-four years of AVHRR-derived sea surface temperature (SST) data (1985–2008) and 35 years of NOCS (V.2) in situ-based SST data (1973–2008) were used to investigate the decadal scale variability of this parameter in the Mediterranean Sea in relation to local air–sea interaction and large-scale atmospheric variability. Satellite and in situ-derived data indicate a strong eastward increasing sea surface warming trend from the early 1990s onwards. The satellite-derived mean annual warming rate is about 0.037°C year–1 for the whole basin, about 0.026°C year–1 for the western sub-basin and about 0.042°C year–1 for the eastern sub-basin over 1985–2008. NOCS-derived data indicate similar variability but with lower warming trends for both sub-basins over the same period. The long-term Mediterranean SST spatiotemporal variability is mainly associated with horizontal heat advection variations and an increasing warming of the Atlantic inflow. Analysis of SST and net heat flux inter-annual variations indicates a negative correlation, with the long-term SST increase, driving a net air–sea heat flux decrease in the Mediterranean Sea through a large increase in the latent heat loss. Empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis of the monthly average anomaly satellite-derived time series showed that the first EOF mode is associated with a long-term warming trend throughout the whole Mediterranean surface and it is highly correlated with both the Eastern Atlantic (EA) pattern and the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) index. On the other hand, SST basin-average yearly anomaly and NAO variations show low and not statistically significant correlations of opposite sign for the eastern (negative correlation) and western (positive correlation) sub-basins. However, there seems to be a link between NAO and SST decadal-scale variations that is particularly evidenced in the second EOF mode of SST anomalies. NOCS SST time series show a significant SST rise in the western basin from 1973 to the late 1980s following a large warming of the inflowing surface Atlantic waters and a long-term increase of the NAO index, whereas SST slowly increased in the eastern basin. In the early 1990s, there is an abrupt change from a very high positive to a low NAO phase which coincides with a large change in the SST spatiotemporal variability pattern. This pronounced variability shift is followed by an acceleration of the warming rate in the Mediterranean Sea and a change in the direction (from westward to eastward) of its spatial increasing tendency.

The impact of the Black Sea Water (BSW) inflow on the circulation and the water mass characteristics of the North Aegean Sea is investigated using a high-resolution 3D numerical model. Four climatological numerical experiments are performed exploring the effects of the exchange amplitude at the Dardanelles Straits in terms of the mean annual volume exchanged and the amplitude of its seasonal cycle. Larger inflow of low salinity BSW influences the water characteristics of the whole basin. The largest salinity reduction is encountered in the upper layers of the water column, and the most affected region is the northeastern part of the basin. The winter insulation character of the BSW layer (low-salinity layer) is reduced by the seasonal cycle of the inflow (minimum during winter). The maximum atmospheric cooling coincides with the minimum BSW inflow rate, weakening the vertical density gradients close to the surface and thus facilitating the vertical mixing. The inflow rate of BSW into the North Aegean Sea constitutes an essential factor for the circulation in the basin. Increased inflow rate results into considerably higher kinetic energy, stronger circulation and reinforcement of the mesoscale circulation features. Although the position of the front between BSW and waters of Levantine origin does not vary significantly with the intensity of the BSW inflow rate, the flow along the front becomes stronger and more unstable as the inflow rate increases, forming meanders and rings. The changes in the intensity of BSW inflow rate overpower the wind and thermohaline forcing and largely determine the general circulation of the North Aegean Sea.

Eight years of AVHRR-derived sea surface temperature (SST) and SeaWiFS-derived surface chlorophyll (Chl) data (1998–2005) are used to investigate key processes affecting the spatial and temporal variability of the two parameters in the Aegean Sea. Seasonal mean SST and Chl maps are constructed using daily data to study seasonal dynamics whereas empirical orthogonal function (EOF) and correlational analysis is applied to the 8-day composite SST and Chl anomaly time-series in order to study the variability and co-variability of the two parameters from subseasonal to interannual time-scales. The seasonal mean fields show that Black Sea cold and chlorophyll-rich waters enter through the Dardanelles Strait and they are accumulated in the north-eastern part of the Aegean Sea, steered by the Samothraki anticyclone. Large chlorophyll concentrations are encountered in the hydrological front off the Dardanelles Strait as well as in coastal areas affected by large riverine/anthropogenic nutrient loads. The SST seasonal mean patterns reveal strong cooling that is associated with upwelling along the eastern boundary of the basin during summer due to strong northerly winds, a process which is not present in the surface chlorophyll climatology. The Chl dataset presents much stronger sub-seasonal variability than SST, with large variations in the phase and strength of the phytoplankton seasonal cycles. EOF analysis of the anomaly time-series shows that SST non-seasonal variability is controlled by synoptic weather variations and anomalies in the north–south wind-stress component regulating the summer coastal upwelling regime. Mean SST and Chl patterns, and their associated variations, are not closely linked implying that Black Sea and riverine inputs mainly control the intra-annual and interannual variability of the surface chlorophyll in the Aegean Sea rather than mixing and/or upwelling processes.

Simulations of the interannual variability of the deep-water formation processes in the Adriatic basin for the years 1979–1999 are performed using the Princeton Ocean Model (POM) with a ∼10 km grid and 6-h atmospheric forcing provided by the European Center for Medium Weather Forecast (ECMWF). Focus is given to the pattern and amplitude of the interannual variability of the water mass formation processes in terms of deep-water formation sites, rates and characteristics. The connection of this variability with the interannual variability of (a) the atmospheric forcing and (b) the open boundary characteristics is investigated. The model performance is tested against the few available observations of deep-water formation processes inside the basin and generally shows a good agreement with the main characteristics of the mixed layer and the deep-water formation rates. A strong interannual variability is found in the calculated deep-water formation rate of the basin, which is highly dependent on the interannual variability of the atmospheric forcing. This rate becomes three times larger than climatology during the biennium 1992–1993, and during all years it is associated mostly with the events of enhanced buoyancy loss and not with the mean winter buoyancy fields. Advection through the open boundary plays an important role in determining the characteristics and volume of deep water formed inside the Adriatic basin, but it is the high frequency atmospheric forcing that determines the amplitude of the interannual variability of deep-water formation rates.

We study the performances of (a) fully two-way coupled atmosphere–ocean modeling system and (b) one-way coupled ocean model (forced by the atmospheric model hourly output), as compared to the available in situ (mooring and CTD) measurements during and after an strong Bora wind event in February 2012, which led to extreme air–sea interactions and record breaking seawater cooling and dense water formation in Northern Adriatic. The simulations span the period between January and March 2012. The models used were ALADIN (4.4 km resolution) on the atmospheric side and Adriatic setup of POM (1°/30 × 1°/30 angular resolution) on the ocean side. The atmosphere–ocean coupling was implemented using the OASIS3-MCT model coupling toolkit. We show, using in situ seawater temperature measurements, that the two-way atmosphere–ocean coupling improves the ocean response to Bora because it captures transient Bora-induced cooling better than the one-way coupled version of the ocean model. We show that this difference stems mainly from an underestimation of air–sea temperature difference in one-way coupled system during the Bora episode, leading to an underestimation of sensible heat losses from the ocean in the one-way coupled system. We show these losses exhibit significant impact on baroclinic circulation on synoptic timescales. We use CTD observations in the Gulf of Trieste to show that when compared to the one-way setup, the two-way coupled system produces a similar estimation of salinities and density anomalies before the Bora episode, but a significantly better estimation of these quantities afterwards.

The main objective of this study is to investigate the variability of the thermohaline characteristics of the deep-water masses in the Aegean Sea and the possible impact of the regional atmospheric forcing variability by analyzing the available oceanographic and atmospheric datasets for the period of 1960-2012. During this period the variability of the deep water characteristics of the Aegean sub-basins is found to be very large as well as the diversity of the deep water characteristics among the sub-basins. The Central Aegean seems to play the key role in the Aegean deep water formation processes. Due to its small size, the Aegean Sea surface responds rapidly to the meteorological changes and/or the variability of the lateral fluxes and this variability propagates in the thermohaline characteristics of the deep water masses of the basin through deep water formation processes. There are many episodes characterized by a tight coupling of the atmosphere and the ocean during the examined period, with the Eastern Mediterranean Transient (EMT) being the most prominent case. We suggest that deep water formation is triggered mostly by the combination of preconditioning during early winter and/or previous winters together with the number of subsequent extreme events during present winter and not only by the total amount of the extreme heat loss winter days. © 2014 Elsevier B.V.

General circulation and deep-water formation (DWF) processes in the Adriatic basin in a climatological year were numerically simulated in a high-resolution (1/20th of a degree) implementation of the Princeton Ocean Model (POM). The “perpetual” year atmospheric data were computed from the ECMWF Reanalysis data (1°×1°) covering the period 1979–1994. The model reproduces the main basin features of the general circulation, water mass distribution and their seasonal variability. The Adriatic Deep Water exiting through the Otranto Strait is produced with two different mechanisms inside the basin: (a) by open ocean deep convection over the Southern Adriatic Pit and Middle Adriatic Pit (b) on the continental shelf of the Northern and Middle Adriatic. The estimated contributions of both mechanisms suggest that 82% of the Adriatic Deep Water is formed inside the Southern Adriatic Pit, while all the higher density water in this water mass comes from the northern regions. The role of mesoscale eddies at the periphery of the dense-water chimney in the Southern Adriatic Pit was examined and their contribution to the lateral buoyancy flux, during the convection process, found to be small. The DWF rate at Otranto Strait is 0.28 Sv with σθ over 29.15. The sensitivity of the DWF processes to interannual variability of the buoyancy forcing and river runoff was assessed with a number of process-study numerical experiments. In these experiments the effect of an imposed “extreme” buoyancy forcing during 1 year, on the DWF rates, was to modify them during the specific year, but the effects were still present in the following normal climatological year. This shows that the DWF rates and their mass characteristics at a specific year depend not only on the atmospheric conditions prevailing that specific year but on the previous year's as well, thus leading to the concept of a “memory” of the basin.

Recent changes of the thermohaline circulation in the Eastern Mediterranean (i.e. the Eastern Mediterranean Transient) and older observations of the thermohaline structure of the Aegean-Levantine region (with events of dramatic changes of deep water characteristics) reveal the very sensitive character of the regional thermohaline circulation pattern. This and the long term variability of seawater characteristics in various Mediterranean basins show that the deep water mass formation processes in the region can be greatly affected by climate variability and the characteristics of the extreme atmospheric forcing events. Theoretical work and modeling experiments point out the effectiveness of extreme events and periods of abnormal atmospheric conditions to produce deep waters of different characteristics and different equilibrium depth. Studying the mechanisms involved in the air-sea interaction under extreme event conditions, with available observations and modeling techniques, and monitoring important sites of water mass formation becomes very important for understanding the regional dynamics of the water cycle and their effect on the climate of the whole Mediterranean Sea region.

A web-based validation platform has been developed at the Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV) for the Near Real Time validation of the MyOcean- Mediterranean Monitoring and Forecasting Centre products (Med-MFC). A network for the collection of the in-situ observations, the nested sub-basin forecasting systems model data (provided by the partners of the Mediterranean Operational Oceanography Network, MOON) and the Sea Surface Temperature (SST) satellite data has been developed and is updated every day with the new available data. The network collects temperature, salinity, currents and sea level data. The validation of the biogeochemical forecast products is done by use of ocean colour satellite data produced for the Mediterranean Sea. All the data are organized in an ad hoc database interfaced with a dedicated software which allows interactive visualizations and statistics (CalVal SW). This tool allows to evaluate NRT products by comparison with independent observations for the first time. The heterogeneous distribution and the scarcity of moored observations reflect with large areas uncovered with measurements. Nevertheless, the evaluation of the forecast at the locations of observations could be very useful to discover sub-regions where the model performances can be improved, thus yielding an important complement to the basin-mean statistics regularly calculated for the Mediterranean MFC products using semi-independent observations., peer-reviewed

Twenty-four years of AVHRR-derived sea surface temperature (SST) data (1985-2008) and 35 years of NOCS (V.2) in situ-based SST data (1973-2008) were used to investigate the decadal scale variability of this parameter in the Mediterranean Sea in relation to local air-sea interaction and large-scale atmospheric variability. Satellite and in situ-derived data indicate a strong eastward increasing sea surface warming trend from the early 1990s onwards. The satellite-derived mean annual warming rate is about 0.037°C year -1 for the whole basin, about 0.026°C year -1 for the western sub-basin and about 0.042°C year -1 for the eastern sub-basin over 1985-2008. NOCS-derived data indicate similar variability but with lower warming trends for both sub-basins over the same period. The long-term Mediterranean SST spatiotemporal variability is mainly associated with horizontal heat advection variations and an increasing warming of the Atlantic inflow. Analysis of SST and net heat flux inter-annual variations indicates a negative correlation, with the long-term SST increase, driving a net air-sea heat flux decrease in the Mediterranean Sea through a large increase in the latent heat loss. Empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis of the monthly average anomaly satellite-derived time series showed that the first EOF mode is associated with a long-term warming trend throughout the whole Mediterranean surface and it is highly correlated with both the Eastern Atlantic (EA) pattern and the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) index. On the other hand, SST basin-average yearly anomaly and NAO variations show low and not statistically significant correlations of opposite sign for the eastern (negative correlation) and western (positive correlation) sub-basins. However, there seems to be a link between NAO and SST decadal-scale variations that is particularly evidenced in the second EOF mode of SST anomalies. NOCS SST time series show a significant SST rise in the western basin from 1973 to the late 1980s following a large warming of the inflowing surface Atlantic waters and a long-term increase of the NAO index, whereas SST slowly increased in the eastern basin. In the early 1990s, there is an abrupt change from a very high positive to a low NAO phase which coincides with a large change in the SST spatiotemporal variability pattern. This pronounced variability shift is followed by an acceleration of the warming rate in the Mediterranean Sea and a change in the direction (from westward to eastward) of its spatial increasing tendency. © 2011 Springer Science+Business Media, LLC.

The inter-annual/decadal scale variability of the Aegean Sea Surface Temperature (SST) is investigated by means of long-term series of satellite-derived and in situ data. Monthly mean declouded SST maps are constructed over the 1985-2008 period, based on a re-analysis of AVHRR Oceans Pathfinder optimally interpolated data over the Aegean Sea. Basin-average SST time series are also constructed using the ICOADS in situ data over 1950-2006. Results indicate a small SST decreasing trend until the early nineties, and then a rapid surface warming consistent with the acceleration of the SST rise observed on the global ocean scale. Decadal-scale SST anomalies were found to be negatively correlated with the winter North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index over the last 60 years suggesting that along with global warming effects on the regional scale, a part of the long-term SST variability in the Aegean Sea is driven by large scale atmospheric natural variability patterns. In particular, the acceleration of surface warming in the Aegean Sea began nearly simultaneously with the NAO index abrupt shift in the mid-nineties from strongly positive values to weakly positive/negative values. © 2011 Copyright Taylor and Francis Group, LLC.

The impact of the Black Sea Water (BSW) inflow on the circulation and the water mass characteristics of the North Aegean Sea is investigated using a high-resolution 3D numerical model. Four climatological numerical experiments are performed exploring the effects of the exchange amplitude at the Dardanelles Straits in terms of the mean annual volume exchanged and the amplitude of its seasonal cycle. Larger inflow of low salinity BSW influences the water characteristics of the whole basin. The largest salinity reduction is encountered in the upper layers of the water column, and the most affected region is the northeastern part of the basin. The winter insulation character of the BSW layer (low-salinity layer) is reduced by the seasonal cycle of the inflow (minimum during winter). The maximum atmospheric cooling coincides with the minimum BSW inflow rate, weakening the vertical density gradients close to the surface and thus facilitating the vertical mixing. The inflow rate of BSW into the North Aegean Sea constitutes an essential factor for the circulation in the basin. Increased inflow rate results into considerably higher kinetic energy, stronger circulation and reinforcement of the mesoscale circulation features. Although the position of the front between BSW and waters of Levantine origin does not vary significantly with the intensity of the BSW inflow rate, the flow along the front becomes stronger and more unstable as the inflow rate increases, forming meanders and rings. The changes in the intensity of BSW inflow rate overpower the wind and thermohaline forcing and largely determine the general circulation of the North Aegean Sea. © Springer-Verlag 2010.

In the framework of the project DIAVLOS, a 48‐hours oil spill dispersion forecasting system was developed and implemented in the Northern Aegean Sea aiming at oil spill dispersion management at the Burgas‐Alexandroupolis oil‐pipe terminal (N.E. Aegean Sea). The system is based on wind, wave and ocean circulation models coupled with the operational systems ALERMO and SKIRON of the University of Athens and an oil‐spill dispersion model. The various components of the system were successfully developed, improved through sensitivity tests and coupled to form an operational oil spill dispersion forecasting system, available at an independent and interactive web‐site (http://diavlos.oc.phys.uoa.gr), in order to be used by interested authorities. The system was also tested against field observations of special drifting floats that monitor the trajection and spreading of oil spills. It gives satisfactory results and in most cases the forecasting error is quite small, allowing the operational use of the system. Additionally, high‐resolution atmospheric and oceanic forecasting in the region is provided, to facilitate operations to contain oil spill spreading/beaching.

Eight years of AVHRR-derived sea surface temperature (SST) and SeaWiFS-derived surface chlorophyll (Chl) data (1998-2005) are used to investigate key processes affecting the spatial and temporal variability of the two parameters in the Aegean Sea. Seasonal mean SST and Chl maps are constructed using daily data to study seasonal dynamics whereas empirical orthogonal function (EOF) and correlational analysis is applied to the 8-day composite SST and Chl anomaly time-series in order to study the variability and co-variability of the two parameters from subseasonal to interannual time-scales. The seasonal mean fields show that Black Sea cold and chlorophyll-rich waters enter through the Dardanelles Strait and they are accumulated in the north-eastern part of the Aegean Sea, steered by the Samothraki anticyclone. Large chlorophyll concentrations are encountered in the hydrological front off the Dardanelles Strait as well as in coastal areas affected by large riverine/anthropogenic nutrient loads. The SST seasonal mean patterns reveal strong cooling that is associated with upwelling along the eastern boundary of the basin during summer due to strong northerly winds, a process which is not present in the surface chlorophyll climatology. The Chl dataset presents much stronger sub-seasonal variability than SST, with large variations in the phase and strength of the phytoplankton seasonal cycles. EOF analysis of the anomaly time-series shows that SST non-seasonal variability is controlled by synoptic weather variations and anomalies in the north-south wind-stress component regulating the summer coastal upwelling regime. Mean SST and Chl patterns, and their associated variations, are not closely linked implying that Black Sea and riverine inputs mainly control the intra-annual and interannual variability of the surface chlorophyll in the Aegean Sea rather than mixing and/or upwelling processes. © 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Simulations of the interannual variability of the deep-water formation processes in the Adriatic basin for the years 1979-1999 are performed using the Princeton Ocean Model (POM) with a ∼10 km grid and 6-h atmospheric forcing provided by the European Center for Medium Weather Forecast (ECMWF). Focus is given to the pattern and amplitude of the interannual variability of the water mass formation processes in terms of deep-water formation sites, rates and characteristics. The connection of this variability with the interannual variability of (a) the atmospheric forcing and (b) the open boundary characteristics is investigated. The model performance is tested against the few available observations of deep-water formation processes inside the basin and generally shows a good agreement with the main characteristics of the mixed layer and the deep-water formation rates. A strong interannual variability is found in the calculated deep-water formation rate of the basin, which is highly dependent on the interannual variability of the atmospheric forcing. This rate becomes three times larger than climatology during the biennium 1992-1993, and during all years it is associated mostly with the events of enhanced buoyancy loss and not with the mean winter buoyancy fields. Advection through the open boundary plays an important role in determining the characteristics and volume of deep water formed inside the Adriatic basin, but it is the high frequency atmospheric forcing that determines the amplitude of the interannual variability of deep-water formation rates. © 2008 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

General circulation and deep-water formation (DWF) processes in the Adriatic basin in a climatological year were numerically simulated in a high-resolution (1/20th of a degree) implementation of the Princeton Ocean Model (POM). The "perpetual" year atmospheric data were computed from the ECMWF Reanalysis data (1°×1°) covering the period 1979-1994. The model reproduces the main basin features of the general circulation, water mass distribution and their seasonal variability. The Adriatic Deep Water exiting through the Otranto Strait is produced with two different mechanisms inside the basin: (a) by open ocean deep convection over the Southern Adriatic Pit and Middle Adriatic Pit (b) on the continental shelf of the Northern and Middle Adriatic. The estimated contributions of both mechanisms suggest that 82% of the Adriatic Deep Water is formed inside the Southern Adriatic Pit, while all the higher density water in this water mass comes from the northern regions. The role of mesoscale eddies at the periphery of the dense-water chimney in the Southern Adriatic Pit was examined and their contribution to the lateral buoyancy flux, during the convection process, found to be small. The DWF rate at Otranto Strait is 0.28Sv with σθ over 29.15. The sensitivity of the DWF processes to interannual variability of the buoyancy forcing and river runoff was assessed with a number of process-study numerical experiments. In these experiments the effect of an imposed "extreme" buoyancy forcing during 1 year, on the DWF rates, was to modify them during the specific year, but the effects were still present in the following normal climatological year. This shows that the DWF rates and their mass characteristics at a specific year depend not only on the atmospheric conditions prevailing that specific year but on the previous year's as well, thus leading to the concept of a "memory" of the basin. © 2004 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Being a dilution basin, the Adriatic Sea exports a relatively fresh water to the adjacent Ionian Sea. This water obviously must pass through the Strait of Otranto in the surface layer. In addition, the Adriatic loses heat every year, and the resulting buoyancy loss generates a dense water that has to be exported to the Ionian in the bottom layer of the Strait of Otranto. To balance these losses, a compensating flow brings more saline and warmer waters from the Eastern Mediterranean through the surface and intermediate layers. In sum, water exchange through the Strait of Otranto consists in three main components: the outflowing surface Adriatic water, the outflowing Adriatic Deep Water (ADW), and the inflowing more saline and warmer waters of Mediterranean origin.