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We demonstrate an indirect, rather than direct, role of quasi-resonant amplification of planetary waves in a summer weather extreme. We find that there was an interplay between a persistent, amplified large-scale atmospheric circulation state and soil moisture feedbacks as a precursor for the June 2021 Pacific Northwest "Heat Dome" event. An extended resonant planetary wave configuration prior to the event created an antecedent soil moisture deficit that amplified lower atmospheric warming through strong nonlinear soil moisture feedbacks, favoring this unprecedented heat event.

Over the past decade, the Arctic has warmed by 0.75°C, far outpacing the global average, while Antarctic temperatures have remained comparatively stable. As Earth approaches 2°C warming, the Arctic and Antarctic may reach 4°C and 2°C mean annual warming, and 7°C and 3°C winter warming, respectively. Expected consequences of increased Arctic warming include ongoing loss of land and sea ice, threats to wildlife and traditional human livelihoods, increased methane emissions, and extreme weather at lower latitudes. With low biodiversity, Antarctic ecosystems may be vulnerable to state shifts and species invasions. Land ice loss in both regions will contribute substantially to global sea level rise, with up to 3 m rise possible if certain thresholds are crossed. Mitigation efforts can slow or reduce warming, but without them northern high latitude warming may accelerate in the next two to four decades. International cooperation will be crucial to foreseeing and adapting to expected changes.

Ocean observational gridded products are vital for climate monitoring, ocean and climate research, model evaluation, and supporting climate mitigation and adaptation measures. This paper describes the 4th version of the Institute of Atmospheric Physics (IAPv4) ocean temperature and ocean heat content (OHC) objective analysis product. It accounts for recent developments in quality control (QC) procedures, climatology, bias correction, vertical and horizontal interpolation, and mapping and is available for the upper 6000 m (119 levels) since 1940 (more reliable after ∼ 1957) for monthly and 1°×1° temporal and spatial resolutions. IAPv4 is compared with the previous version, IAPv3, and with the other data products, sea surface temperatures (SSTs), and satellite observations. It has a slightly stronger long-term upper 2000 m OHC increase than IAPv3 for 1955–2023, mainly because of newly developed bias corrections. The IAPv4 0–2000 m OHC trend is also higher during 2005–2023 than IAPv3, mainly because of the QC process update. The uppermost level of IAPv4 is consistent with independent SST datasets. The month-to-month OHC variability for IAPv4 is desirably less than IAPv3 and the other OHC products investigated in this study, the trend of ocean warming rate (i.e., warming acceleration) is more consistent with the net energy imbalance at the top of the atmosphere than IAPv3, and the sea level budget can be closed within uncertainty. The gridded product is freely accessible at 10.12157/IOCAS.20240117.002 for temperature data (Cheng et al., 2024a) and at 10.12157/IOCAS.20240117.001 for ocean heat content data (Cheng et al., 2024b). [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

[This corrects the article DOI: 10.1093/biosci/bix133.].

Increasing surface temperatures, Arctic sea-ice loss, and other evidence of anthropogenic global warming (AGW) are acknowledged by every major scientific organization in the world. However, there is a wide gap between this broad scientific consensus and public opinion. Internet blogs have strongly contributed to this consensus gap by fomenting misunderstandings of AGW causes and consequences. Polar bears (Ursus maritimus) have become a "poster species" for AGW, making them a target of those denying AGW evidence. Here, focusing on Arctic sea ice and polar bears, we show that blogs that deny or downplay AGW disregard the overwhelming scientific evidence of Arctic sea-ice loss and polar bear vulnerability. By denying the impacts of AGW on polar bears, bloggers aim to cast doubt on other established ecological consequences of AGW, aggravating the consensus gap. To counter misinformation and reduce this gap, scientists should directly engage the public in the media and blogosphere.

In the Northern Hemisphere, springtime events are frequently reported as advancing more rapidly at higher latitudes, presumably due to an acceleration of warming with latitude. However, this assumption has not been investigated in an analytical framework that simultaneously examines acceleration of warming with latitude while accounting for variation in phenological time series characteristics that might also co-vary with latitude. We analyzed 743 phenological trend estimates spanning 86 years and 42.6 degrees of latitude in the Northern Hemisphere, as well as rates of Northern Hemisphere warming over the same period and latitudinal range. We detected significant patterns of co-variation in phenological time series characteristics that may confound estimates of the magnitude of variation in trends with latitude. Notably, shorter and more recent time series tended to produce the strongest phenological trends, and these also tended to be from higher latitude studies. However, accounting for such variation only slightly modified the relationship between rates of phenological advance and latitude, which was highly significant. Furthermore, warming has increased non-linearly with latitude over the past several decades, most strongly since 1998 and northward of 59°N latitude. The acceleration of warming with latitude has likely contributed to an acceleration of phenological advance along the same gradient.

We find strong path dependence in the evolution of the Plio--Pleistocene glaciations using CLIMBER-2 Earth System Model simulations from the mid-Pliocene to modern preindustrial (3 My-0 My BP) driven by a gradual decrease in volcanic carbon dioxide outgassing and regolith removal from basal ice interaction. Path dependence and hysteresis are investigated by alternatively driving the model forward and backward in time. Initiating the model with preindustrial conditions and driving the model backward using time-reversed forcings, the increase in volcanic outgassing back-in-time (BIT) does not generate the high CO2 levels and relatively ice-free conditions of the late Pliocene seen in forward-in-time (FIT) simulations of the same model. This behavior appears to originate from nonlinearities and initial state dependence in the carbon cycle. A transition from low-amplitude sinusoidal obliquity (~41 ky) and precession (~23 ky) driven glacial/ interglacial cycles to high-amplitude ~100 ky likely eccentricity-related sawtooth cycles seen between -1.25 My and -0.75 My BP (the Mid-Pleistocene transition or "MPT") in FIT simulations disappears in BIT integrations depending on the details of how the regolith removal process is treated. A transition toward depleted regolith and lowered atmospheric CO2 levels are both required to reproduce the MPT. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

There is no more consequential scientific matter today than global warming. The societal and policy implications, however, hinge upon the attribution of that warming to human activity and, specifically, continued societal reliance on the burning of fossil fuels. It was recently suggested that this warming could be explained by the non-anthropogenic factor of seismic activity. If that is the case, it would have profound implications. We have assessed the validity of the claim using a statistical technique (the method of conditional dispersion) that evaluates the existence of causal connections between variables, finding no evidence for any causal relationship between seismic activity and global warming. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Ocean observational gridded products are vital for climate monitoring, ocean and climate research, model evaluation, and supporting climate mitigation and adaptation measures. This paper describes the 4th version of the Institute of Atmospheric Physics (IAPv4) ocean temperature and ocean heat content (OHC) objective analysis product. It accounts for recent developments in quality control (QC) procedures, climatology, bias correction, vertical and horizontal interpolation, and mapping and is available for the upper 6000 m (119 levels) since 1940 (more reliable after ~1957) for monthly and 1° × 1° temporal and spatial resolutions. The IAPv4 is compared with the previous version, IAPv3, and to the other data products, sea surface temperatures (SSTs), and satellite observations. It has a slightly stronger long-term upper 2000 m OHC increase than IAPv3 for 1955-2023, mainly because of newly developed bias corrections. IAPv4 OHC 0-2000 m trend is also higher during 2005-2023 than IAPv3. The first level of IAPv4 is consistent with independent SST datasets. The month-to-month OHC variability for IAPv4 is desirably less than IAPv3 and other OHC products investigated in this study; annual variations are consistent with the net energy imbalance at the top of the atmosphere, and the sea level budget can be closed within uncertainty. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We demonstrate an indirect, rather than direct, role of quasi-resonant amplification of planetary waves in a summer weather extreme. We find that there was an interplay between a persistent, amplified large-scale atmospheric circulation state and soil moisture feedbacks as a precursor for the June 2021 Pacific Northwest "Heat Dome" event. An extended resonant planetary wave configuration prior to the event created an antecedent soil moisture deficit that amplified lower atmospheric warming through strong nonlinear soil moisture feedbacks, favoring this unprecedented heat event. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]