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Active regions (ARs) appear in the solar atmosphere as a consequence of the emergence of magnetic flux-ropes (FR). In this study, we use Bayesian methods to analyze line-of-sight magnetograms of emerging ARs. We employ a FR model consisting of a half-torus field structure based on eight parameters. The goal is to derive constrained physical parameters of the originating FR which are consistent with the observations. Specifically, we aim to obtain a precise estimation of the AR tilt angle and magnetic twist at different stages of the emergence process. To achieve this, we propose four temporal methods that correlate the field parameter evolutions with a single coherent FR. These methods differ from each other in the size of the explored parameter space. We test the methods on four bipolar ARs observed with the Michelson Doppler Imager on board the Solar and Heliospheric Observatory. We find that tilt angles are typically consistent between the temporal methods, improving previous estimations at all stages of the emergence. The twist sign derived from the temporal methods is consistent with previous estimations. The standard errors of all the methods used are similar, indicating that they model the observations equally well. These results indicate that the proposed methods can be used to obtain global magnetic parameters of ARs during their early evolution. The derived parameters contribute to a better understanding of the formation of FRs, and the role of ARs in the magnetic recycling process along the solar cycle.

We analyze the magnetic evolution of solar active region (AR) NOAA 11476 that, between 9 and 10 May 2012, produced a series of surge-type eruptions accompanied by GOES X-ray class M flares. Using force-free models of the AR coronal structure and observations in several wavelengths, in previous works we studied the detailed evolution of those eruptions, relating them to the characteristic magnetic topology of the AR and reconstructing the involved reconnection scheme. We found that the eruptions were due to the ejection of minifilaments, which were recurrently ejected and reformed at the polarity inversion line of a bipole that emerged in the middle of the positive main AR magnetic polarity. The bipole was observed to rotate for several tens of hours before the events. In this article we analyze, for the full AR and the rotating bipole, the evolution of a series of magnetic parameters computed using the Helioseismic and Magnetic Imager (HMI) vector magnetograms. We combine this analysis with estimations of the injection of magnetic energy and helicity obtained using the Differential Affine Velocity Estimator for Vector Magnetograms (DAVE4VM) method that determines, from vector magnetograms, the affine velocity field constrained by the induction equation. From our results, we conclude that the bipole rotation was the main driver that provided the magnetic energy and helicity involved in the minifilament destabilizations and ejections. The results also suggest that the observed rotation is probably due to the emergence of a kinked magnetic flux rope with negative writhe helicity., Comment: Accepted for publication in Solar Physics

Despite investments in multiple space and ground-based solar observatories by the global community, the Sun's polar regions remain unchartered territory - the last great frontier for solar observations. Breaching this frontier is fundamental to understanding the solar cycle - the ultimate driver of short-to-long term solar activity that encompasses space weather and space climate. Magnetohydrodynamic dynamo models and empirically observed relationships have established that the polar field is the primary determinant of the future solar cycle amplitude. Models of solar surface evolution of tilted active regions indicate that the mid to high latitude surges of magnetic flux govern dynamics leading to the reversal and build-up of polar fields. Our theoretical understanding and numerical models of this high latitude magnetic field dynamics and plasma flows - that are a critical component of the sunspot cycle - lack precise observational constraints. This limitation compromises our ability to observe the enigmatic kilo Gauss polar flux patches and constrain the polar field distribution at high latitudes. The lack of these observations handicap our understanding of how high latitude magnetic fields power polar jets, plumes, and the fast solar wind that extend to the boundaries of the heliosphere and modulate solar open flux and cosmic ray flux within the solar system. Accurate observation of the Sun's polar regions, therefore, is the single most outstanding challenge that confronts Heliophysics. This paper argues the scientific case for novel out of ecliptic observations of the Sun's polar regions, in conjunction with existing, or future multi-vantage point heliospheric observatories. Such a mission concept can revolutionize the field of Heliophysics like no other mission concept has - with relevance that transcends spatial regimes from the solar interior to the heliosphere., Comment: This White Paper was submitted in 2022 to the United States National Academies Solar and Space Physics (Heliophysics) Decadal Survey

How filaments form and erupt are topics about which solar researchers have wondered since more than a century and that are still open to debate. We present observations of a filament formation, its failed eruption, and the associated flare (SOL2019-05-09T05:51) that occurred in active region (AR) 12740 using data from SDO, STEREO-A, IRIS, and NSO/GONG. AR 12740 was a decaying region formed by a very disperse following polarity and a strong leading spot, surrounded by a highly dynamic zone where moving magnetic features (MMFs) were seen constantly diverging from the spot. Our analysis indicates that the filament was formed by the convergence of fibrils at a location where magnetic flux cancellation was observed. Furthermore, we conclude that its destabilization was also related to flux cancellation associated to the constant shuffling of the MMFs. A two-ribbon flare occurred associated to the filament eruption; however, because the large-scale magnetic configuration of the AR was quadrupolar, two additional flare ribbons developed far from the two main ones. We model the magnetic configuration of the AR using a force-free field approach at the AR scale size. This local model is complemented by a global potential-field source-surface one. Based on the local model, we propose a scenario in which the filament failed eruption and flare are due to two reconnection processes, one occurring below the erupting filament, leading to the two-ribbon flare, and another one above it between the filament flux-rope configuration and the large-scale closed loops. Our computation of the reconnected magnetic flux added to the erupting flux rope, compared to that of the large-scale field overlying it, lets us conclude that the latter was large enough to prevent the filament eruption. A similar conjecture can be drawn from the computation of the magnetic tension derived from the global field model., Comment: 32 pages, 17 figures, Accepted for publication in Solar Physics

The mid-infrared (mid-IR) range has been mostly unexplored for the investigation of solar flares. It is only recently that new mid-IR flare observations have begun opening a new window into the response and evolution of the solar chromosphere. These new observations have been mostly performed by the AR30T and BR30T telescopes that are operating in Argentina and Brazil, respectively. We present the analysis of SOL2019-05-15T19:24, a GOES class C2.0 solar flare observed at 30~THz (10$\ \mu$m) by the ground-based telescope AR30T. Our aim is to characterize the evolution of the flaring atmosphere and the energy transport mechanism in the context of mid-IR emission. We performed a multi-wavelength analysis of the event by complementing the mid-IR data with diverse ground- and space-based data from the Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO), the H--$\alpha$ Solar Telescope for Argentina (HASTA), and the Expanded Owens Valley Solar Array (EOVSA). Our study includes the analysis of the magnetic field evolution of the flaring region and of the development of the flare. The mid-IR images from AR30T show two bright and compact flare sources that are spatially associated with the flare kernels observed in ultraviolet (UV) by SDO. We confirm that the temporal association between mid-IR and UV fluxes previously reported for strong flares is also observed for this small flare. The EOVSA microwave data revealed flare spectra consistent with thermal free-free emission, which lead us to dismiss the existence of a significant number of non-thermal electrons. We thus consider thermal conduction as the primary mechanism responsible for energy transport. Our estimates for the thermal conduction energy and total radiated energy fall within the same order of magnitude, reinforcing our conclusions., Comment: 10 pages, 8 figures. Accepted for publication in Astronomy and Astrophysics

Interest in stealth coronal mass ejections (CMEs) is increasing due to their relatively high occurrence rate and space weather impact. However, typical CME signatures such as extreme-ultraviolet dimmings and post-eruptive arcades are hard to identify and require extensive image processing techniques. These weak observational signatures mean that little is currently understood about the physics of these events. We present an extensive study of the magnetic field configuration in which the stealth CME of 3 March 2011 occurred. Three distinct episodes of flare ribbon formation are observed in the stealth CME source active region (AR). Two occurred prior to the eruption and suggest the occurrence of magnetic reconnection that builds the structure which will become eruptive. The third occurs in a time close to the eruption of a cavity that is observed in STEREO-B 171A data; this subsequently becomes part of the propagating CME observed in coronagraph data. We use both local (Cartesian) and global (spherical) models of the coronal magnetic field, which are complemented and verified by the observational analysis. We find evidence of a coronal null point, with field lines computed from its neighbourhood connecting the stealth CME source region to two ARs in the northern hemisphere. We conclude that reconnection at the null point aids the eruption of the stealth CME by removing field that acted to stabilise the pre-eruptive structure. This stealth CME, despite its weak signatures, has the main characteristics of other CMEs, and its eruption is driven by similar mechanisms., Comment: 15 pages, 12 figures, accepted for publication in The Astrophysical Journal

We report the temporal evolution of the excess brightness temperature above solar active regions (ARs) observed with the Solar Submillimeter Telescope (SST) at 212 ({\lambda} = 1.4 mm) and 405 GHz ({\lambda} = 0.7 mm) during Cycles 23 and 24. Comparison with the sunspot number (SSN) yields a Pearson's correlation coefficient R = 0.88 and 0.74 for 212 and 405 GHz, respectively. Moreover, when only Cycle 24 is taken into account the correlation coefficients go to 0.93 and 0.81 for each frequency. We derive the spectral index {\alpha} between SST frequencies and found a slight anti-correlation with the SSN (R = -0.25); however, since the amplitude of the variation is lower than the standard deviation we cannot draw a definite conclusion. Indeed, {\alpha} remains almost constant within the uncertainties with a median value approximate to 0 characteristic of an optically thick thermal source. Since the origin of the AR submillimeter radiation is thermal continuum produced at chromospheric heights, the strong correlation between the excess brightness temperature and the magnetic cycle evolution could be related to the available free magnetic energy to be released in reconnection events., Comment: Accepted for publication in the Astrophysical Journal

Coronal mass ejections (CMEs), which are among the most magnificent solar eruptions, are a major driver of space weather and can thus affect diverse human technologies. Different processes have been proposed to explain the initiation and release of CMEs from solar active regions (ARs), without reaching consensus on which is the predominant scenario, and thus rendering impossible to accurately predict when a CME is going to erupt from a given AR. To investigate AR magnetic properties that favor CMEs production, we employ multi-spacecraft data to analyze a long duration AR (NOAA 11089, 11100, 11106, 11112 and 11121) throughout its complete lifetime, spanning five Carrington rotations from July to November 2010. We use data from the Solar Dynamics Observatory to study the evolution of the AR magnetic properties during the five near-side passages, and a proxy to follow the magnetic flux changes when no magnetograms are available, i.e. during far-side transits. We characterized the angular widths, speeds and masses of 108 CMEs that we associated to the AR, when examining a 124-day period. Such an ejectivity tracking was possible thanks to the multiviewpoint images provided by the STEREO and SOHO in a quasiquadrature configuration. We also inspected the X-ray flares registered by the GOES satellite and found 162 to be associated to the AR under study. Given the substantial number of ejections studied, we use a statistical approach instead of a single-event analysis. We found three well defined periods of very high CMEs activity and two periods with no mass ejections that are preceded or accompanied by characteristic changes in the AR magnetic flux, free magnetic energy and/or presence of electric currents. Our large sample of CMEs and long term study of a single AR, provide further evidence relating AR magnetic activity to CME and Flare production., Comment: Accepted for publication in Advances in Space Research

We study an EUV confined ejection observed on 09 May 2012 in active region (AR) NOAA 11476. For the analysis we use observations in multiple wavelengths (EUV, X-rays, H$\alpha$, and magnetograms) from a variety of ground-based and space instruments. The magnetic configuration showed the presence of two rotating bipoles, with decreasing magnetic flux, within the following polarity of the AR. This evolution was present along some tens of hours before the studied event and continued even later. A minifilament with a length of $\approx 30 \arcsec$ lay along the photospheric inversion line of the largest bipole. The minifilament was observed to erupt accompanied by an M4.7 flare (SOL20120509T12:23:00). Consequently, dense material, as well as twist, was injected along closed loops in the form of a very broad ejection whose morphology resembles that of typical H$\alpha$ surges. We conclude that the flare and eruption can be explained as due to two reconnection processes, one occurring below the erupting minifilament and another one above it. This second process injects the minifilament plasma within the reconnected closed loops linking the main AR polarities. Analyzing the magnetic topology using a force-free model of the coronal field, we identify the location of quasi-separatix layers (QSLs), where reconnection is prone to occur, and present a detailed interpretation of the chromospheric and coronal eruption observations. In particular, this event, contrary to what has been proposed in several models explaining surges and/or jets, is not originated by magnetic flux emergence but by magnetic flux cancellation accompanied by the rotation of the bipoles. In fact, the conjunction of these two processes, flux cancellation and bipole rotations, is at the origin of a series of events, homologous to the one we analyze in this article, that occurred in AR 11476 from 08 to 10 May 2012., Comment: Accepted for publication Solar Physics

A Moreton wave was detected in active region (AR) 12017 on 29 March 2014 with very high cadence with the Halpha Solar Telescope for Argentina (HASTA) in association with an X1.0 flare (SOL2014-03-29T17:48). Several other phenomena took place in connection with this event, such as low coronal waves and a coronal mass ejection (CME). We analyze the association between the Moreton wave and the EUV signatures observed with the Atmospheric Imaging Assembly onboard the Solar Dynamics Observatory. These include their low-coronal surface-imprint, and the signatures of the full wave and shock dome propagating outward in the corona. We also study their relation to the white-light CME. We perform a kinematic analysis by tracking the wavefronts in several directions. This analysis reveals a high-directional dependence of accelerations and speeds determined from data at various wavelengths. We speculate that a region of open magnetic field lines northward of our defined radiant point sets favorable conditions for the propagation of a coronal magnetohydrodynamic shock in this direction. The hypothesis that the Moreton wavefront is produced by a coronal shock-wave that pushes the chromosphere downward is supported by the high compression ratio in that region. Furthermore, we propose a 3D geometrical model to explain the observed wavefronts as the chromospheric and low-coronal traces of an expanding and outward-traveling bubble intersecting the Sun. The results of the model are in agreement with the coronal shock-wave being generated by a 3D piston that expands at the speed of the associated rising filament. The piston is attributed to the fast ejection of the filament-CME ensemble, also consistent with the good match between the speed profiles of the low-coronal and white-light shock-waves., Comment: 37 pages, 14 Figures, published in Solar Physics

Elongated magnetic polarities are observed during the emergence phase of bipolar active regions (ARs). These extended features, called magnetic tongues, are interpreted as a consequence of the azimuthal component of the magnetic flux in the toroidal flux-tubes that form ARs. We develop a new systematic and user-independent method to identify AR tongues. Our method is based on determining and analyzing the evolution of the AR main polarity inversion line (PIL). The effect of the tongues is quantified by measuring the acute angle [ tau] between the orientation of the PIL and the direction orthogonal to the AR main bipolar axis. We apply a simple model to simulate the emergence of a bipolar AR. This model lets us interpret the effect of magnetic tongues on parameters that characterize ARs ( e.g. the PIL inclination and the tilt angles, and their evolution). In this idealized kinematic emergence model, tau is a monotonically increasing function of the twist and has the same sign as the magnetic helicity. We systematically apply our procedure to a set of bipolar ARs that were observed emerging in line-of-sight magnetograms over eight years. For most of the cases studied, the tongues only have a small influence on the AR tilt angle since tongues have a much lower magnetic flux than the more concentrated main polarities. From the observed evolution of tau, corrected for the temporal evolution of the tilt angle and its final value when the AR is fully emerged, we estimate the average number of turns in the subphotospherically emerging flux-rope. These values for the 41 observed ARs are below unity, except for one. This indicates that subphotospheric flux-ropes typically have a low amount of twist, i.e. highly twisted flux-tubes are rare. Our results demonstrate that the evolution of the PIL is a robust indicator of the presence of tongues and constrains the amount of twist in emerging flux-tubes

There is a growing appreciation that the environmental conditions that we call space weather impact the technological infrastructure that powers the coupled economies around the world. With that comes the need to better shield society against space weather by improving forecasts, environmental specifications, and infrastructure design. [...] advanced understanding of space weather requires a coordinated international approach to effectively provide awareness of the processes within the Sun-Earth system through observation-driven models. This roadmap prioritizes the scientific focus areas and research infrastructure that are needed to significantly advance our understanding of space weather of all intensities and of its implications for society. Advancement of the existing system observatory through the addition of small to moderate state-of-the-art capabilities designed to fill observational gaps will enable significant advances. Such a strategy requires urgent action: key instrumentation needs to be sustained, and action needs to be taken before core capabilities are lost in the aging ensemble. We recommend advances through priority focus (1) on observation-based modeling throughout the Sun-Earth system, (2) on forecasts more than 12 hrs ahead of the magnetic structure of incoming coronal mass ejections, (3) on understanding the geospace response to variable solar-wind stresses that lead to intense geomagnetically-induced currents and ionospheric and radiation storms, and (4) on developing a comprehensive specification of space climate, including the characterization of extreme space storms to guide resilient and robust engineering of technological infrastructures. The roadmap clusters its implementation recommendations by formulating three action pathways, and outlines needed instrumentation and research programs and infrastructure for each of these. [...], Comment: In press for Advances of Space Research: an international roadmap on the science of space weather, commissioned by COSPAR and ILWS (63 pages and 4 figures)