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We introduce a network observation of anomalous long-distance propagation of aeronautical navigation (NAV) very high-frequency (VHF) radio waves due to sporadic E layer (Es). The system has been operative since May 2019 at 6 stations in Japan. The receiver consists of a log-periodic antenna, air-band filter, software-defined radio and small computer which is capable of recording the strength of radio signals in the frequency band from 98 to 118 MHz with a temporal resolution of 2 s. The receiver covers not only the NAV band including VHF omnidirectional radio range (VOR), instrument landing system localizer (ILS LOC) and ground-based augmentation system VHF data broadcast (GBAS VDB) from 108 to 118 MHz, but also broadcasting channels from 98 to 108 MHz. Soon after the start of the full operation of the network observation, a strong Es event was detected by an ionosonde in Tokyo during the daytime on July 4, 2019, in which foEs (critical frequency of Es) was sometimes higher than 15 MHz. The VHF radio wave monitoring system detected multiple signatures of Es anomalous propagation (EsAP) at all the stations extending from Okinawa to Hokkaido. At some stations, the EsAP signatures continued for a few hours with some brief intervals of disappearance. The observed correspondence between the enhancement of foEs and the occurrence of anomalous propagation confirmed that an extreme electron density enhancement within Es caused the anomalous long-distance propagation of VHF NAV signals. The data from this network observation can be browsed at http://gwave.cei.uec.ac.jp/cgi-bin/vor/vhf.cgi in near real-time basis. This near real-time monitoring capability allows people in the aeronautical operation community such as air navigation service providers, pilots, and airline engineers to check the propagation environment of VHF NAV signals online, which contributes to a mitigation of ionospheric space weather impacts on the aeronautical navigation systems. Not only that the current method for detecting Es in a wide area can be used to visualize the spatial distribution of Es in two-dimensional fashion through a combination of other observation techniques such as ionosondes and total electron content (TEC) measurements using Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) signals.

We developed an operational solar flare prediction model using deep neural networks, named Deep Flare Net (DeFN). DeFN can issue probabilistic forecasts of solar flares in two categories, such as >=M-class and =C-class and =M-class flares and TSS = 0.63 for >=C-class flares. For comparison, we evaluated the operationally forecast results from January 2019 to June 2020. We found that operational DeFN forecasts achieved TSS = 0.70 (0.84) for >=C-class flares with the probability threshold of 50 (40)%, although there were very few M-class flares during this period and we should continue monitoring the results for a longer time. Here, we adopted a chronological split to divide the database into two for training and testing. The chronological split appears suitable for evaluating operational models. Furthermore, we proposed the use of time-series cross-validation. The procedure achieved TSS = 0.70 for >=M-class flares and 0.59 for >=C-class flares using the datasets obtained from 2010 to 2017., Comment: 12 pages, 4 figures, 4 tables, online published in EPS

Although solar activity may significantly impact the global environment and socioeconomic systems, the mechanisms for solar eruptions and the subsequent processes have not yet been fully understood. Thus, modern society supported by advanced information systems is at risk from severe space weather disturbances. Project for solar–terrestrial environment prediction (PSTEP) was launched to improve this situation through synergy between basic science research and operational forecast. The PSTEP is a nationwide research collaboration in Japan and was conducted from April 2015 to March 2020, supported by a Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research on Innovative Areas from the Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science and Technology of Japan. By this project, we sought to answer the fundamental questions concerning the solar–terrestrial environment and aimed to build a next-generation space weather forecast system to prepare for severe space weather disasters. The PSTEP consists of four research groups and proposal-based research units. It has made a significant progress in space weather research and operational forecasts, publishing over 500 refereed journal papers and organizing four international symposiums, various workshops and seminars, and summer school for graduate students at Rikubetsu in 2017. This paper is a summary report of the PSTEP and describes the major research achievements it produced.

Annular flow in rod bundle occurs frequently in boiling water reactor (BWR) under normal operation and in pressurized water reactor (PWR) under accident conditions. When annular flow occurs, rod film thickness is one of the most important parameters for safety concern. In order to calculate rod film thickness distribution inside rod bundle, both gas and liquid velocity distribution inside rod bundle is necessary. Also, flow distribution inside rod bundle is of importance for calculation of interfacial shear stress and other parameters in each sub-channel. However, entrained droplets in gas core can sharpen the gas velocity profile while existing rods can flatten the gas velocity profile, making it different from that of single phase flow. The liquid velocity distribution inside rod bundle is hard to obtain from experiment because of the complex structure of its geometry. Due to these reasons, this paper deducts gas and liquid velocity profiles from existing adiabatic rod film thickness data. Even the gas velocity profiles for different flow conditions are different, there exists a gas velocity profile that can be applied to all current flow conditions with minimum uncertainties. Based on that gas velocity profile, liquid velocity profile can be calculated. From these flow velocity profiles, film thickness on each rod and interfacial shear stress in each sub-channel can be calculated.

Modeling and simulation study of industrial scale beyond-bubbly flows, like cap-bubbly, cap-turbulent and churn-turbulent, using the two-fluid model, has been limited due to the wide range of interfacial length scales involved and lack of physics-based models for bubble hydrodynamics and interaction mechanisms for such flow conditions. One important feature of beyond bubbly flow is the existence of a wide range of bubble sizes and shapes and thus different transport characteristics. The accuracy of two-fluid model predictions is strongly dependent on the constitutive relations used for the two-fluid model. The objectives of this proposed work are the following: select a set of physics-based constitutive relations and implement these models into CFX; evaluate these models for a wide range of test conditions in cap-turbulent and churn-turbulent flows. The interfacial structure is dynamically evaluated using bubble interaction mechanisms (coalescence and break up) from the two-group Interfacial Area Transport Equation implemented as source and sink terms into ANSYS CFX. The assessments for the validity of the models were carried out in comparison to data collected at Purdue University for two-phase flow in a narrow, rectangular duct. Non-uniform inlet conditions were applied in order to evaluate phase diffusion models in CFX. A new turbulence-induced bubble collision diffusion model for the two-group bubbles system has been implemented in ANSYS CFX. The CFD results predict the measured data to within the expected error, correctly capturing the transverse redistribution of phases due to diffusion for both uniform and non-uniform inlet phase distributions. This illustrates the importance of bubble collision phenomena in correctly predicting phase distributions in a channel.

Interfacial shear stress in annular two-phase flow is essential both for detailed modeling of two-fluid model and calculation of pressure gradient. Most of existing correlations on interfacial friction factor are based on Wallis’s (1969) correlation, which considers the interfacial friction factor as a function of film thickness. As film thickness is a parameter not easy to obtain, it needs either high accuracy instrument to measure from experiment or to be calculated from available correlations. The calculated film thickness from available correlations introduces additional uncertainties to interfacial friction factor. Because of this, a new correlation of interfacial friction factor based on a group of non-dimensional numbers which are easy to obtain has been proposed. From data comparison, the new correlation has a mean absolute percentage error of 15% for all data listed in four databases.

Accurate prediction of interfacial area concentration (IAC) is of great importance in the two-fluid model. As a promising IAC prediction method, the interfacial area transport equation (IATE) was developed to dynamically predict the IAC and to eliminate the shortcomings of the flow regime-based IAC correlations, which is currently used in most thermal–hydraulic system codes. To extend the applicability of the IATE from bubbly flow to slug and churn-turbulent flow, the two-group IATE was developed by representing the IAC of sphere/distorted bubbles and cap/slug bubbles separately. Several studies have been performed in the past focusing on the constitutive modeling and experimental benchmark. However, few data are collected in small size pipes ( D H ⩽ 2 D c ), hence the applicability of the current two-group IATE models on small size pipes has not been well evaluated. In this study, a comprehensive database including bubbly, slug, churn-turbulent flow is established in a round pipe with a diameter of 25.4 mm (DH ≈ 2Dc), and the applicability of two-group IATE models for round pipe has been checked against the data. The measured IAC can be predicted by the two-group IATE with the constitutive models developed for moderate size pipe with errors less than 25% except at the bubbly to slug transition flow conditions. At the transition flow, drastic intergroup void fraction and IAC transport are observed along the flow direction. The model cannot predict this intergroup transfer and overestimates the IAC. Recent improvements on the original models focusing on the one-group to two-group transition flow in a moderate size pipe are also evaluated and the results are still not satisfying. The reasons for this discrepancy are analyzed in detail and improvements including re-deriving the coalescence terms using more accurate log-normal bubble size distribution and experimental coefficients optimizing have been performed. Using the newly derived models with optimized coefficients, the two-group IATE can predict the IAC axial development for all flow conditions with an error less than 25%. The averaged prediction error for the bubbly to slug transition flow conditions decreases from 47.19% to 8.03%.

An experimental study of the characteristics of air-water two-phase flow in a piping system with an inner diameter of 152.4 mm is presented. Both horizontal and vertical pipes (with the lengths of 15.09 m and 6.42 m) are included in the system and two 90-degree elbows are used for their connections. 71 flow conditions are performed in this experiment, covering plug, slug, pseudo slug, and stratified flow for the horizontal flow, and bubbly, cap bubbly, churn turbulent, and falling film/annular flow for the vertical flow. Detailed flow regime analysis for the flow regimes of the horizontal and vertical pipe flow and the effects of the elbow on the flow regime transition are discussed. The flow regime maps proposed generally agree with the existing maps. A significant flow regime shift in the vertical section is also observed and discussed. The area averaged void fraction development is presented and a sharp drop of void fraction in vertical downward test section is observed which results from the kinematic shock phenomenon. The result of the frictional pressure drop is discussed, and it agrees with the Kim et al.’s correlation. With the database, the drift flux model for Goda et al.’s vertical downward flow is evaluated. Large difference has shown at low void fraction which may indicate further modeling investigation.

Experimental study on the effect of electrode distance on the performance of impedance void meter is presented. The study includes multiple approaches. In the numerical simulation approach, based on the mathematical similarity between electric and temperature fields, the electric fields with different electrode distances are simulated using ANSYS Fluent to generate temperature fields. In the experimental study, an adiabatic air-water experiment is performed to compare two impedance meters with different electrode distances. The test conditions cover the flow regimes from bubbly flow to annular flow. Gamma densitometer and multi-single sensor conductivity probe are utilized for the void fraction comparison. The effect of the electrode distance on the flow regime identification using the artificial neural network is investigated, the signals of the different impedance meters are applied as the inputs for the artificial neural network. It is found that impedance meter with a properly large electrode distance has better performance in void fraction measurement, especially at high superficial velocity.

The current work seeks to perform the one-dimensional drift-flux analysis for horizontal gas-dispersed flow, to provide closure models for void fraction and to investigate the relative motion between gas and liquid phases. A reliable experimental database for void fraction and bubble velocity is first established over a wide range of flow conditions for bubbly, plug and slug flows in different pipe sizes, due to the limitations of existing database. It is found that the effects of flow regime and pipe size on the drift-flux analysis are insignificant. The drift velocity is found to be negative in horizontal bubbly flow. This is consistent with the conclusion by the 〈α〉–〈β〉 analysis, where the slope is found to be greater than one. This indicates that the gas phase moves slower than the liquid phase in horizontal bubbly flow. The analysis also indicates that the horizontal plug and slug flows are relatively more homogeneous than horizontal bubbly flow. As such, the homogeneous flow model can predict the void fraction better for plug and slug flows. The current drift-flux analysis provides closure relations for C0 and 〈〈Vgj〉〉 that can be employed in TRACE, while existing closure relations are developed for vertical flow and cannot be used for horizontal flow prediction. In addition, various void fraction models in literature are evaluated. It is found that the correlations modified from vertical flow generally cannot predict the void fraction well for horizontal flow. The correlations for plug and slug flows by Franca and Lahey, and Lamari underestimate the void fraction, which may be because these correlations are developed for relatively low jf conditions, while the current work focuses on conditions at jf greater than 2.0 m/s.

A notable example of spiral architecture in organs is the mammalian cochlear duct, where the morphology is critical for hearing function. Genetic studies have revealed necessary signaling molecules, but it remains unclear how cellular dynamics generate elongating, bending, and coiling of the cochlear duct. Here, we show that extracellular signal-regulated kinase (ERK) activation waves control collective cell migration during the murine cochlear duct development using deep tissue live-cell imaging, Förster resonance energy transfer (FRET)-based quantitation, and mathematical modeling. Long-term FRET imaging reveals that helical ERK activation propagates from the apex duct tip concomitant with the reverse multicellular flow on the lateral side of the developing cochlear duct, resulting in advection-based duct elongation. Moreover, model simulations, together with experiments, explain that the oscillatory wave trains of ERK activity and the cell flow are generated by mechanochemical feedback. Our findings propose a regulatory mechanism to coordinate the multicellular behaviors underlying the duct elongation during development., うずまき管の伸⻑を司る分子活性と細胞群の波を発見 --綱引きによる細胞群の流れと臓器の成長--. 京都大学プレスリリース. 2021-03-09.

Upper atmospheric conditions are crucial for the safe operation of spacecraft orbiting near Earth and for communication and positioning systems using radio signals. To understand and predict the upper atmospheric conditions, which include complex variations affected by both low altitude and upper surrounding environments, we have developed a quasi-real-time and forecast simulations using a physical global model, the Ground-to-topside model of Atmosphere and Ionosphere for Aeronomy (GAIA). The GAIA simulation system provides a global distribution of ionospheric total electron content (TEC) with background atmospheric and electric distributions including a few-days prediction. The prediction accuracy for the detection of significant ionospheric storms decreases with increasing lead time, i.e., the duration of the model simulation which is not constrained by realistic input parameters. Similar characteristic variations associated with sudden stratospheric warmings (SSWs) are reproduced with the full or limited input of meteorological data at least the prior 3 days. This is a first step toward the usage of GAIA for space weather forecasting.

A notable example of spiral architecture in organs is the mammalian cochlear duct, where the duct morphology is critical for hearing function. Molecular genetics has revealed the necessary signaling molecules for the formation of spirals in organs, but it remains unclear how cellular dynamics generate bending and coiling of the cochlear duct during development. Here we show two modes of multicellular dynamics underlying the morphogenetic process by combining deep tissue live-cell imaging, Förster resonance energy transfer (FRET)-based quantitation, and mathematical modeling. First, surgical separation of the cochlear duct revealed that bending forces reside primarily in the medial side of the duct. In the medial pseudostratified epithelium, we found that nuclei stall at the luminal side during interkinetic nuclear migration, which would cause the extension of the luminal side, thereby bending the duct. Second, long-term organ-scale FRET imaging of extracellular signal-regulated kinase (ERK) activity showed that helical ERK activation waves propagate from the duct tip concomitant with the reverse multicellular flow in the lateral side of the duct, resulting in advection-based duct elongation. We propose an interplay of distinct multicellular behaviors underpinning spiral morphogenesis in the developing cochlear duct.

We developed a reliable probabilistic solar flare forecasting model using a deep neural network, named Deep Flare Net-Reliable (DeFN-R). The model can predict the maximum classes of flares that occur in the following 24 h after observing images, along with the event occurrence probability. We detected active regions from 3x10^5 solar images taken during 2010-2015 by Solar Dynamic Observatory and extracted 79 features for each region, which we annotated with flare occurrence labels of X-, M-, and C-classes. The extracted features are the same as used by Nishizuka et al. (2018); for example, line-of-sight/vector magnetograms in the photosphere, brightening in the corona, and the X-ray emissivity 1 and 2 h before an image. We adopted a chronological split of the database into two for training and testing in an operational setting: the dataset in 2010-2014 for training and the one in 2015 for testing. DeFN-R is composed of multilayer perceptrons formed by batch normalizations and skip connections. By tuning optimization methods, DeFN-R was trained to optimize the Brier skill score (BSS). As a result, we achieved BSS = 0.41 for >=C-class flare predictions and 0.30 for >=M-class flare predictions by improving the reliability diagram while keeping the relative operating characteristic curve almost the same. Note that DeFN is optimized for deterministic prediction, which is determined with a normalized threshold of 50%. On the other hand, DeFN-R is optimized for a probability forecast based on the observation event rate, whose probability threshold can be selected according to users' purposes.

This study aims to experimentally investigate the two-group interfacial area transport in small diameter pipes. Experimental data focusing on the bubbly to slug transition regime, namely one-group to two-group transport region, are collected in a 12.7 mm vertical pipe under adiabatic, air-water conditions. The result shows the intergroup transfer in the small diameter pipe can be drastic, especially under low superficial liquid velocities. The cause of this phenomenon is mainly due to the large relative bubble size comparing to the pipe cross-sectional area. The wake entrainment effect could be enhanced by the small spherical bubbles that are acting like cap or slug bubbles in a medium-size pipe. Based on the experimental observation, a throughout analysis of the dependence of the drastic intergroup transfer is provided in this study. The models predicting the initiation of drastic intergroup transfer in small diameter pipes in terms of the bubble diameter and the void fraction are developed. These models are compared with the two-phase data among the different pipe sizes and the results show a good agreement. These newly developed models are applied to the IATE wake entrainment model by developing a transition function analogous to the sigmoid function. With the transition function, the revised IATE model is given the new ability on predicting the drastic intergroup transfer phenomenon.

This experimental study focuses on the characteristics of air-water two-phase interfacial structure. Interfacial parameters including void fraction, interfacial area concentration, and bubble interfacial velocity are measured using four-sensor electrical conductivity probe on a 12.7 mm ID vertical tube. The tube size is approximately equal to the maximum distorted bubble size. Therefore, the bubbly-to-slug transition characteristics can be different from in other sizes of tubes. Comparing with previous studies, this study provides an experimental database with a wide range on the bubbly-to-slug transition flows, with 4 different superficial liquid velocities (0.3, 0.5, 1.0, and 2.0 m/s) and void fraction ranging from 0.07 to 0.66. Experimental results show that the wall-peak void distribution does not appear in a small diameter tube under the bubbly-to-slug flow transition flow. The distribution is related with both void fraction and the relative bubble size to the tube size. In this sense, a new correlation of distribution parameter in the Drift Flux model is proposed based on the previous studies by Ishii and Hibiki et al. This experimental study can be a good reference for the model development of flow regime transition and the Interfacial Area Transport Equation., Comment: 22 pages, 15 figures. Preprint submitted to International Journal of Heat and Mass Transfer

The current work experimentally investigates the evolving characteristics of bubble size distribution (BSD) in bubbly and bubbly-to-slug transition flow in a 25.4 mm inner diameter pipe. Four-sensor conductivity probes used in present research enables accurate acquisition of bubble chord length in the flows with void fraction varying from 0.1 to 0.6. The flow regime transition is implemented by increasing superficial gas velocity while keeping superficial liquid velocity constant. Six right-skewed probability distribution functions (PDFs) commonly used for predicting bubble chord length distribution (CLD) are selected and used to fit the chord length data. The goodness of fit for all PDFs is evaluated by R-square, root-mean-square error (RMSE) and corrected Akaike information criterion. The results show that the PDF which reasonably fits the CLD in bubbly flow fails to fit the CLD in bubbly-to-slug transition flow. The evolving characteristics of CLD in flow regime transition process are qualitatively and quantitatively discussed based on bubble coalescence and break-up mechanisms. It is found that the invalidation of uniform morphology assumption and different mechanisms of bubble coalescence and break-up may result in the failed fitting. To properly predict real bubble size distribution (BSD) in bubbly-to-slug transition flow from CLD, an analytical backward transformation method is proposed to relate the CLD to BSD based on the bubble geometrical characteristics in the transition flow. The predicted BSD can be applied to calculate the interfacial area concentration (IAC) in the transition flow. The calculated IAC shows good agreements with experimental data which demonstrates the validity of predicted BSD in the transition flow.

Prediction of rod film thickness and its distribution in annular flow in rod bundle is of essential importance to nuclear power industry. This is attributed to the possible film dryout on fuel rods under certain conditions, which will result in a drastically increasing cladding temperature and possible fuel damage. Though there exist a lot of models or correlations to predict film thickness for annular flow in pipes, there are few models to predict rod film thickness inside rod bundle. The one-dimensional models or correlations for pipe flow cannot be used for rod bundle directly due to different geometry and flow dynamics. In relation to this, a new approach to predict the rod film thickness inside rod bundle has been developed. This approach first divides the rod bundle cross-section into three regions according to their characteristic length scales. Then, the gas and liquid flow distribution inside rod bundle has been given with reasonable assumptions. Based on the flow distribution profile, the sub-channel area-averaged gas and liquid volumetric fluxes have been given. Finally, the correlation developed for pipe flow is adopted for each sub-channel based on the local two-phase parameters in the rod bundle. Compared to experimental data obtained in-house and found in the literature, the newly proposed approach can predict rod film thickness with satisfactory accuracy.