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OBJECTIVE: Blood biomarkers of neuronal injury such as neurofilament light (NfL) show promise to improve diagnosis of neurodegenerative disorders and distinguish neurodegenerative from primary psychiatric disorders (PPD). This study investigated the diagnostic utility of plasma NfL to differentiate behavioural variant frontotemporal dementia (bvFTD, a neurodegenerative disorder commonly misdiagnosed initially as PPD), from PPD, and performance of large normative/reference data sets and models. METHODS: Plasma NfL was analysed in major depressive disorder (MDD, n = 42), bipolar affective disorder (BPAD, n = 121), treatment-resistant schizophrenia (TRS, n = 82), bvFTD (n = 22), and compared to the reference cohort (Control Group 2, n = 1926, using GAMLSS modelling), and age-matched controls (Control Group 1, n = 96, using general linear models). RESULTS: Large differences were seen between bvFTD (mean NfL 34.9 pg/mL) and all PPDs and controls (all < 11 pg/mL). NfL distinguished bvFTD from PPD with high accuracy, sensitivity (86%), and specificity (88%). GAMLSS models using reference Control Group 2 facilitated precision interpretation of individual levels, while performing equally to or outperforming models using local controls. Slightly higher NfL levels were found in BPAD, compared to controls and TRS. CONCLUSIONS: This study adds further evidence on the diagnostic utility of NfL to distinguish bvFTD from PPD of high clinical relevance to a bvFTD differential diagnosis, and includes the largest cohort of BPAD to date. Using large reference cohorts, GAMLSS modelling and the interactive Internet-based application we developed, may have important implications for future research and clinical translation. Studies are underway investigating utility of plasma NfL in diverse neurodegenerative and primary psychiatric conditions in real-world clinical settings.

Accelerated brain ageing has been observed in multiple psychiatric disorders. This study examined whether relationships between age and plasma neurofilament light (NfL) protein differed in individuals with psychiatric disorders (major depressive disorder (n = 42), bipolar affective disorder (n = 121), treatment-resistant schizophrenia (TRS, n = 82)) compared to two healthy control (HC) groups (n = 1,926 and n = 59). Compared to two independent HC samples, individuals with TRS demonstrated a stronger positive relationship between age and NfL levels. Individuals with BPAD had a stronger negative relationship between age and NfL levels compared to the large normative HC cohort, but not locally-acquired HCs. These findings show that plasma NfL levels are differentially associated with age in individuals with TRS and BPAD compared to healthy individuals.

OBJECTIVE: Research suggests that recurrent seizures may lead to neuronal injury. Neurofilament light chain protein (NfL) and glial fibrillary acidic protein (GFAP) levels increase in cerebrospinal fluid and blood in response to neuroaxonal damage, and they have been hypothesized as potential biomarkers for epilepsy. We examined plasma NfL and GFAP levels and their diagnostic utility in differentiating patients with epilepsy from those with psychogenic nonepileptic seizures (PNES) and other nonepileptic disorders. METHODS: We recruited consecutive adults admitted for video-electroencephalographic monitoring and formal neuropsychiatric assessment. NfL and GFAP levels were quantified and compared between different patient groups and an age-matched reference cohort (n = 1926) and correlated with clinical variables in patients with epilepsy. RESULTS: A total of 138 patients were included, of whom 104 were diagnosed with epilepsy, 22 with PNES, and 12 with other conditions. Plasma NfL and GFAP levels were elevated in patients with epilepsy compared to PNES, adjusted for age and sex (NfL p = .04, GFAP p = .04). A high proportion of patients with epilepsy (20%) had NfL levels above the 95th age-matched percentile compared to the reference cohort (5%). NfL levels above the 95th percentile of the reference cohort had a 95% positive predictive value for epilepsy. Patients with epilepsy who had NfL levels above the 95th percentile were younger than those with lower levels (37.5 vs. 43.8 years, p = .03). SIGNIFICANCE: An elevated NfL or GFAP level in an individual patient may support an underlying epilepsy diagnosis, particularly in younger adults, and cautions against a diagnosis of PNES alone. Further examination of the association between NfL and GFAP levels and specific epilepsy subtypes or seizure characteristics may provide valuable insights into disease heterogeneity and contribute to the refinement of diagnosis, understanding pathophysiological mechanisms, and formulati

BACKGROUND: In the absence of evidence from randomised controlled trials, observational data can be used to emulate clinical trials and guide clinical decisions. Observational studies are, however, susceptible to confounding and bias. Among the used techniques to reduce indication bias are propensity score matching and marginal structural models. OBJECTIVE: To use the comparative effectiveness of fingolimod vs natalizumab to compare the results obtained with propensity score matching and marginal structural models. METHODS: Patients with clinically isolated syndrome or relapsing remitting MS who were treated with either fingolimod or natalizumab were identified in the MSBase registry. Patients were propensity score matched, and inverse probability of treatment weighted at six monthly intervals, using the following variables: age, sex, disability, MS duration, MS course, prior relapses, and prior therapies. Studied outcomes were cumulative hazard of relapse, disability accumulation, and disability improvement. RESULTS: 4608 patients (1659 natalizumab, 2949 fingolimod) fulfilled inclusion criteria, and were propensity score matched or repeatedly reweighed with marginal structural models. Natalizumab treatment was associated with a lower probability of relapse (PS matching: HR 0.67 [95% CI 0.62-0.80]; marginal structural model: 0.71 [0.62-0.80]), and higher probability of disability improvement (PS matching: 1.21 [1.02 -1.43]; marginal structural model 1.43 1.19 -1.72]). There was no evidence of a difference in the magnitude of effect between the two methods. CONCLUSIONS: The relative effectiveness of two therapies can be efficiently compared by either marginal structural models or propensity score matching when applied in clearly defined clinical contexts and in sufficiently powered cohorts.

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES: The severity of multiple sclerosis (MS) varies widely among individuals. Understanding the determinants of this heterogeneity will help clinicians optimize the management of MS. The aim of this study was to investigate the association between latitude of residence, ultraviolet B radiation exposure (UVB) and the severity of MS. METHOD(S): This observational study used the MSBase registry data. The included patients met the 2005 or 2010 McDonald diagnostic criteria for MS and had a minimum dataset recorded in the registry (date of birth, sex, clinic location, date of MS symptom onset, disease phenotype at baseline and censoring, and >=1 EDSS [Expanded Disability Status Scale] score recorded). The latitude of each study center and cumulative annualized UVB dose at study center (calculated from NASA's Total Ozone Mapping Spectrometer) at ages 6 and 18 and the year of disability assessment were calculated. Disease severity was quantified with MS Severity Score (MSSS). Quadratic regression was used to model the associations between latitude, UVB and MSSS. RESULT(S): 46,128 patients contributing 453,208 visits and a cumulative follow-up of 351,196 patient-years (70% women, mean age 39.2+/-12, resident between latitudes 19degree35' and 56degree16') were included in this study. Latitude showed a non-linear association with MS severity. In latitudes greater than 40degree, more severe disease was associated with higher latitudes (beta=0.08, 95%CI: 0.04 to 0.12). For example, this translates into a mean difference of 1.3 points of MSSS between patients living in Madrid and Copenhagen. No such association was observed in latitudes <40degree (beta=-0.02, 95% CI:-0.06 to 0.03). The overall disability accrual was faster in those with a lower level of estimated UVB exposure before the age of 6 (beta=- 0.5, 95% CI: -0.6 to 0.4) and 18 years (beta=- 0.6, 95%CI:-0.7 to 0.4), as well as with lower life-time UVB exposure at the time of disability assessment (be

Background and purpose: The prevention of disability over the long term is the main treatment goal in multiple sclerosis (MS); however, randomized clinical trials evaluate only short-term treatment effects on disability. This study aimed to define criteria for 6-month confirmed disability progression events of MS with a high probability of resulting in sustained long-term disability worsening. Method(s): In total, 14,802 6-month confirmed disability progression events were identified in 8741 patients from the global MSBase registry. For each 6-month confirmed progression event (13,321 in the development and 1481 in the validation cohort), a sustained progression score was calculated based on the demographic and clinical characteristics at the time of progression that were predictive of long-term disability worsening. The score was externally validated in the Cladribine Tablets Treating Multiple Sclerosis Orally (CLARITY) trial. Result(s): The score was based on age, sex, MS phenotype, relapse activity, disability score and its change from baseline, number of affected functional system domains and worsening in six of the domains. In the internal validation cohort, a 61% lower chance of improvement was estimated with each unit increase in the score (hazard ratio 0.39, 95% confidence interval 0.29-0.52; discriminatory index 0.89). The proportions of progression events sustained at 5 years stratified by the score were 1: 72%; 2: 88%; 3: 94%; 4: 100%. The results of the CLARITY trial were confirmed for reduction of disability progression that was >88% likely to be sustained (events with score >1.5). Conclusion(s): Clinicodemographic characteristics of 6-month confirmed disability progression events identify those at high risk of sustained long-term disability. This knowledge will allow future trials to better assess the effect of therapy on long-term disability accrual.Copyright © 2022 The Authors. European Journal of Neurology published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behal

OBJECTIVES: To evaluate the rate of return of disease activity after cessation of multiple sclerosis (MS) disease-modifying therapy. METHOD(S): This was a retrospective cohort study from two large observational MS registries: MSBase and OFSEP. Patients with relapsing-remitting MS who had ceased a disease-modifying therapy and were followed up for the subsequent 12-months were included in the analysis. The primary study outcome was annualised relapse rate in the 12 months after disease-modifying therapy discontinuation stratified by patients who did, and did not, commence a subsequent therapy. The secondary endpoint was the predictors of first relapse and disability accumulation after treatment discontinuation. RESULT(S): 14,213 patients, with 18,029 eligible treatment discontinuation epochs, were identified for seven therapies. Annualised rates of relapse (ARR) started to increase 2-months after natalizumab cessation (month 2-4 ARR, 95% confidence interval): 0.47, 0.43-0.51). Commencement of a subsequent therapy within 2-4 months reduced the magnitude of disease reactivation (mean ARR difference: 0.15, 0.08-0.22). After discontinuation of fingolimod, rates of relapse increased overall (month 1-2 ARR: 0.80, 0.70-0.89), and stabilised faster in patients who started a new therapy within 1-2 months (mean ARR difference: 0.14, -0.01-0.29). Magnitude of disease reactivation for other therapies was low, but reduced further by commencement of another treatment 1-10 months after treatment discontinuation. Predictors of relapse were higher relapse rate in the year before cessation, female sex, younger age and higher EDSS. Commencement of a subsequent therapy reduced both the risk of relapse (HR 0.76, 95%CI 0.72-0.81) and disability accumulation (0.73, 0.65-0.80). CONCLUSION(S): The rate of disease reactivation after treatment cessation differs among MS treatments, with the peaks of relapse activity ranging from 1 to 10 months in untreated cohorts that discontinued different t

Background and purpose The prevention of disability over the long term is the main treatment goal in multiple sclerosis (MS); however, randomized clinical trials evaluate only short-term treatment effects on disability. This study aimed to define criteria for 6-month confirmed disability progression events of MS with a high probability of resulting in sustained long-term disability worsening. Methods In total, 14,802 6-month confirmed disability progression events were identified in 8741 patients from the global MSBase registry. For each 6-month confirmed progression event (13,321 in the development and 1481 in the validation cohort), a sustained progression score was calculated based on the demographic and clinical characteristics at the time of progression that were predictive of long-term disability worsening. The score was externally validated in the Cladribine Tablets Treating Multiple Sclerosis Orally (CLARITY) trial. Results The score was based on age, sex, MS phenotype, relapse activity, disability score and its change from baseline, number of affected functional system domains and worsening in six of the domains. In the internal validation cohort, a 61% lower chance of improvement was estimated with each unit increase in the score (hazard ratio 0.39, 95% confidence interval 0.29–0.52; discriminatory index 0.89). The proportions of progression events sustained at 5 years stratified by the score were 1: 72%; 2: 88%; 3: 94%; 4: 100%. The results of the CLARITY trial were confirmed for reduction of disability progression that was >88% likely to be sustained (events with score ˃1.5). Conclusions Clinicodemographic characteristics of 6-month confirmed disability progression events identify those at high risk of sustained long-term disability. This knowledge will allow future trials to better assess the effect of therapy on long-term disability accrual.

BACKGROUND: The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic has precipitated expansion of telemedicine in outpatient management of chronic diseases including multiple sclerosis (MS). Studies conducted pre-pandemic, when telehealth was an alternative to in-person consultations, represent a different setting to current practice. The aim of this study was to assess the impact of telehealth on MS outpatient care in a tertiary metropolitan hospital in Melbourne, Australia during the COVID-19 pandemic. METHOD: From March-December 2020, patients and clinicians in the MS outpatient clinic were surveyed regarding their attitudes towards telehealth. Scores on the Expanded Disability Status Scale (EDSS) from telehealth and face-to-face appointments during the study period were compared to scores from face-to-face consultations before and after this period. Medical records were reviewed to compare management decisions made during telehealth versus face-to-face consultations. Diagnoses and treatment of MS relapses were compared to 2019. RESULTS: Telehealth was used in 73% of outpatient appointments. Patient satisfaction was generally high. Patients and clinicians preferred face-to-face consultations but were willing to use telehealth longer term. Overall, there were no significant delays in identifying patients experiencing disability worsening via telehealth, but EDSS increase was recorded in more face-to-face than telehealth appointments particularly for those with lower baseline disability. Disease-modifying therapy commencement rates were similar, but symptomatic therapy initiation and investigation requests occurred more frequently in face-to-face visits. Comparable numbers of MS relapses were diagnosed and treated with corticosteroids in 2019 and 2020. CONCLUSIONS: Patient satisfaction with telehealth was high, but both clinicians and patients preferred in-person appointments. Telehealth implementation did not lead to high rates of undetected disability worsening or undia

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES: To evaluate the rate of return of disease activity after cessation of multiple sclerosis (MS) disease-modifying therapy. METHODS: This was a retrospective cohort study from 2 large observational MS registries: MSBase and OFSEP. Patients with relapsing-remitting MS who had ceased a disease-modifying therapy and were followed up for the subsequent 12 months were included in the analysis. The primary study outcome was annualized relapse rate in the 12 months after disease-modifying therapy discontinuation stratified by patients who did, and did not, commence a subsequent therapy. The secondary endpoint was the predictors of first relapse and disability accumulation after treatment discontinuation. RESULTS: A total of 14,213 patients, with 18,029 eligible treatment discontinuation epochs, were identified for 7 therapies. Annualized rates of relapse (ARRs) started to increase 2 months after natalizumab cessation (month 2-4 ARR 0.47, 95% CI 0.43-0.51). Commencement of a subsequent therapy within 2-4 months reduced the magnitude of disease reactivation (mean ARR difference: 0.15, 0.08-0.22). After discontinuation of fingolimod, rates of relapse increased overall (month 1-2 ARR: 0.80, 0.70-0.89) and stabilized faster in patients who started a new therapy within 1-2 months (mean ARR difference: 0.14, -0.01 to 0.29). The magnitude of disease reactivation for other therapies was low but reduced further by commencement of another treatment 1-10 months after treatment discontinuation. Predictors of relapse were a higher relapse rate in the year before cessation, female sex, younger age, and higher EDSS score. Commencement of a subsequent therapy reduced both the risk of relapse (HR 0.76, 95% CI 0.72-0.81) and disability accumulation (0.73, 0.65-0.80). DISCUSSION: The rate of disease reactivation after treatment cessation differs among MS treatments, with the peaks of relapse activity ranging from 1 to 10 months in untreated cohorts that discontinued di

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE: The prevention of disability over the long term is the main treatment goal in multiple sclerosis (MS); however, randomized clinical trials evaluate only short-term treatment effects on disability. This study aimed to define criteria for 6-month confirmed disability progression events of MS with a high probability of resulting in sustained long-term disability worsening. METHODS: In total, 14,802 6-month confirmed disability progression events were identified in 8741 patients from the global MSBase registry. For each 6-month confirmed progression event (13,321 in the development and 1481 in the validation cohort), a sustained progression score was calculated based on the demographic and clinical characteristics at the time of progression that were predictive of long-term disability worsening. The score was externally validated in the Cladribine Tablets Treating Multiple Sclerosis Orally (CLARITY) trial. RESULTS: The score was based on age, sex, MS phenotype, relapse activity, disability score and its change from baseline, number of affected functional system domains and worsening in six of the domains. In the internal validation cohort, a 61% lower chance of improvement was estimated with each unit increase in the score (hazard ratio 0.39, 95% confidence interval 0.29-0.52; discriminatory index 0.89). The proportions of progression events sustained at 5 years stratified by the score were 1: 72%; 2: 88%; 3: 94%; 4: 100%. The results of the CLARITY trial were confirmed for reduction of disability progression that was >88% likely to be sustained (events with score ˃1.5). CONCLUSIONS: Clinicodemographic characteristics of 6-month confirmed disability progression events identify those at high risk of sustained long-term disability. This knowledge will allow future trials to better assess the effect of therapy on long-term disability accrual.

OBJECTIVE: To test the hypothesis that immunotherapy prevents long-term disability in relapsing-remitting multiple sclerosis (MS), we modeled disability outcomes in 14,717 patients. METHODS: We studied patients from MSBase followed for ≥1 year, with ≥3 visits, ≥1 visit per year, and exposed to MS therapy, and a subset of patients with ≥15-year follow-up. Marginal structural models were used to compare the cumulative hazards of 12-month confirmed increase and decrease in disability, Expanded Disability Status Scale (EDSS) step 6, and the incidence of relapses between treated and untreated periods. Marginal structural models were continuously readjusted for patient age, sex, pregnancy, date, disease course, time from first symptom, prior relapse history, disability, and MRI activity. RESULTS: A total of 14,717 patients were studied. During the treated periods, patients were less likely to experience relapses (hazard ratio 0.60, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.43-0.82, p = 0.0016), worsening of disability (0.56, 0.38-0.82, p = 0.0026), and progress to EDSS step 6 (0.33, 0.19-0.59, p = 0.00019). Among 1,085 patients with ≥15-year follow-up, the treated patients were less likely to experience relapses (0.59, 0.50-0.70, p = 10-9) and worsening of disability (0.81, 0.67-0.99, p = 0.043). CONCLUSION: Continued treatment with MS immunotherapies reduces disability accrual by 19%-44% (95% CI 1%-62%), the risk of need of a walking aid by 67% (95% CI 41%-81%), and the frequency of relapses by 40-41% (95% CI 18%-57%) over 15 years. This study provides evidence that disease-modifying therapies are effective in improving disability outcomes in relapsing-remitting MS over the long term. CLASSIFICATION OF EVIDENCE: This study provides Class IV evidence that, for patients with relapsing-remitting MS, long-term exposure to immunotherapy prevents neurologic disability.

Background: Our current understanding of demographic and clinical modifiers of the effectiveness of multiple sclerosis (MS) therapies is limited. Objective(s): To assess whether patients' response to disease modifying therapies (DMT) in MS varies by disease activity (annualised relapse rate, presence of new MRI lesions), disability, age, MS duration or disease phenotype. Method(s): Using the international MSBase registry, we selected patients with MS followed for >=1 year, with >=3 visits, >=1 visit per year. Marginal structural models (MSMs) were used to compare the hazard ratios (HR) of 6-month confirmed worsening and improvement of disability (EDSS), and the incidence of relapses between treated and untreated periods. MSMs were continuously re-adjusted for patient age, sex, pregnancy, date, time from first symptom, prior relapse history, disability and MRI activity. Result(s): Among 23 687 patients with relapsing MS, those on DMT experienced 20% greater chance of disability improvement [HR 1.20 (95% CI 1.0-1.5)], 47% lower risk of disability worsening [HR 0.53 (0.39-0.71)] and 51% reduction in relapses [HR 0.49 (0.43-0.55)]. The effect of DMT on relapses and EDSS worsening was attenuated with longer MS duration and higher prior relapse rate. The effect of DMT on EDSS improvement and relapses was more evident in low EDSS categories. DMT was associated with 51% EDSS improvement in patients without new MRI lesions [HR 1.51 (1.00-2.28)] compared to 4% in those with MRI activity [HR 1.04 (0.88-1.24)]. Among 26329 participants with relapsing or progressive MS, DMT was associated with 25% reduction in EDSS worsening and 42% reduction in relapses in patients with relapsing MS [HR 0.75 (0.65-0.86) and HR 0.58 (CI 0.54-62), respectively], while evidence for such beneficial effects of treatment in patients with progressive MS was not found [HR 1.11 (0.91-1.46) and HR 1.16 (0.91-1.46), respectively]. Conclusion(s): DMTs are associated with reduction in relapse frequency, pro

Introduction: Ocrelizumab, a monoclonal antibody targeted against CD20+ B cells, has become a popular treatment for relapsing-remitting multiple sclerosis (MS). The effectiveness of ocrelizumab compared to other treatments is however unknown. Aim(s): To compare the effectiveness of ocrelizumab with interferon-beta, fingolimod and natalizumab in relapsing-remitting MS. Method(s): Using the MSBase registry, we identified patients with relapsing-remitting MS treated for >=6 months with ocrelizumab, interferon- beta (interferon beta-1a, interferon beta-1b subcutaneous or interferon beta-1b intramuscular), fingolimod or natalizumab. All patients required >12-month pre-treatment follow up and the minimum dataset. Patients with comparable baseline characteristics were matched with propensity score on age, sex, MS duration, EDSS, prior relapse rate, prior therapy, disease activity, MRI lesion burden (missing values imputed), reason for discontinuation of preceding therapy (imputed) and country. Annualised rate of relapses (ARR) and cumulative hazard of relapses were compared in pairwise-censored groups. Result(s): 106 patients treated with ocrelizumab were matched with 209 patients on interferon therapies with a mean age of 39 years, 0.8 relapses per year and mean EDSS of 2.4-2.5. Over a pairwise-censored mean follow up of 1.3 years, ocrelizumab was associated with lower relapse rates (ARR 0.08 vs 0.27, p<0.001) and lower risk of relapse (HR 0.30, 95%CI 0.15-0.57) than interferon-beta. 297 patients treated with ocrelizumab were matched with 811 fingolimod-treated patients with a mean age of 41 years, 0.6 relapses per year and mean EDSS of 2.7-2.8. Over a pairwisecensored mean follow up of 1.5 years, ocrelizumab was associated with lower relapse rates (ARR 0.03 vs 0.14, p<0.001) and lower risk of relapse than fingolimod (HR 0.21, 0.13-0.32). 262 ocrelizumab- treated patients were matched with 343 natalizumab treated patients with a mean age of 39 years, 0.8 relapses per year

Objective: To assess whether patients' response to disease modifying therapies (DMT) in multiple sclerosis (MS) varies by disease activity (annualised relapse rate, presence of new MRI lesions), disability, age, MS duration or disease phenotype. Background(s): Our understanding of demographic and clinical modifiers of the effectiveness of MS therapies is limited. Design/Methods: Using the international MSBase registry, we selected patients with MS followed for >=1 year, with >=3 visits, >=1 visit per year. Marginal structural models were used to compare the hazard ratios (HR) of 6-month confirmed worsening and improvement of disability (EDSS), and the incidence of relapses between treated and untreated periods. Models were continuously re-adjusted for patient age, sex, pregnancy, date, time from first symptom, prior relapse history, disability and MRI activity. Result(s): Among 23687 patients with relapsing MS, those on DMTs experienced 48% reduction in relapse incidence [HR=0.52 (0.44-0.61)], 48% lower risk of disability worsening [HR=0.52 (0.38-0.71)] and 33% greater chance of disability improvement [HR=1.33 (95%CI 1.0-1.5)]. The effect of DMTs on EDSS worsening and improvement and the risk of relapses was attenuated with more severe disability. The effect of DMTs on reducing relapses declined with higher prior relapse rate and in patients with prior cerebral MRI activity. Among 26329 participants with relapsing or progressive MS, DMTs were associated with 25% reduction in EDSS worsening and 42% reduction in relapses in patients with relapsing MS [HR=0.75 (0.65-0.86) and HR=0.58 (0.54-62), respectively], while evidence for such beneficial effects of treatment in patients with progressive MS was not found [HR=1.11 (0.91-1.46) and HR=1.16 (0.91-1.46), respectively]. Conclusion(s): DMTs are associated with reduction in relapse frequency, progression of disability, and increased chance of recovery from disability. The DMTs are most effective among patients with lower

Objective: The aim of this study was to investigate the association between latitude of residence, ultraviolet B radiation exposure (UVB) and the severity of multiple sclerosis (MS). Background(s): Severity of (MS) varies widely among individuals. Understanding of determinants of this heterogeneity will help clinicians optimize the management of MS in individual patients. Design/Methods: This observational study used the global MSBase registry. Disease severity was quantified with MS Severity Score (MSSS, a decile of disability relative to a normative cohort with similar disease duration). The latitude of each study center (stratified by hemisphere) and cumulative annualized UVB dose at study center (calculated from from NASA's Total Ozone Mapping Spectrometer) at ages 6 and 18 and the year of disability assessment were calculated. Quadratic regression was used to model the associations between latitude, UVB and MSSS. Result(s): 46,128 patients (70% women, mean age 39+/-12, resident between latitudes 19degree35' and 56degree16', cumulative follow-up 351,196 patient-years) were included. Latitude showed a non-linear association with MS severity. Above 40degree of latitude, more severe disease was associated with higher latitudes (beta= 0.08, 95%CI: 0.04, 0.12). For example, this translates into a mean difference of 1.3 points of MSSS between patients living in Madrid and Copenhagen. No such association was observed in latitudes <40degree (beta= 0.02, 95%CI: 0.06, 0.03). The overall disability accrual was faster in those with a lower level of estimated UVB exposure before the age of 6 (beta= 0.5, 95%CI: 0.6, 0.4) and 18 years (beta= 0.6, 95%CI: 0.7, 0.4) as well as with lower life-time UVB exposure at the time of disability assessment (beta= 1.0, 95%CI: 1.1, 0.9). Conclusion(s): In temperate zones, MS severity is associated with latitude. This association is mainly, but not exclusively, driven by UVB exposure. Thus, UVB exposure contributes to both MS susceptibility a

Background: Some cohort studies have reported similar onset age and disability accrual in primary and secondary progressive MS (PPMS, SPMS); others have reported later onset and faster disability accrual in SPMS. Comparisons are complicated by differences in baseline disability and exposure to disease-modifying therapies (DMT), and by lack of a standardized definition of SPMS. Objective(s): We compared hazards of disability accrual in PPMS and SPMS patients from the MSBase cohort using multivariable Cox models, applying validated diagnostic criteria for SPMS (Lorscheider et al., Brain 2016). Method(s): Inclusion required adult-onset progressive MS; >= 3 recorded Expanded Disability Status Scale (EDSS) scores; and, for SPMS, initial records with EDSS <= 3 to allow objective identification of SPMS conversion. Phenotypes were subgrouped as active (PPMS-A, SPMS-A) if >= 1 progressive-phase relapse was recorded, and inactive (PPMS-N, SPMS-N) otherwise. Disability accrual was defined by sustained EDSS increases confirmed over >= 6 months. Hazard ratios (HR) for disability accrual were obtained using Andersen-Gill Cox models, adjusted for sex and time-varying age, disability, visit frequency, and proportion of time on DMT or immunosuppressive therapy. Sensitivity analyses were performed using (1) PPMS and SPMS diagnosed since 1995, and (2) physician-diagnosed SPMS. Cumulative probability of reaching EDSS >= 7 (wheelchair required) was assessed (Kaplan-Meier). Result(s): 5461 patients were included (1257 PPMS-N; 1308 PPMS-A; 1731 SPMS-N; 1165 SPMS-A). Age at progression onset was older in SPMS than PPMS (47.2 +/- 10.2, vs. 41.5 +/- 10.7 [mean +/- SD]), and in the inactive subgroups of each phenotype. Hazard of disability accrual was decreased in SPMS relative to PPMS (HR 0.85; 95% CI 0.78-0.92); decreased by proportion of time on DMT (HR 0.99 per 10% increment; 0.98-0.99); and higher in males (1.18; 1.12-1.25). Relative to PPMS-N, hazard was decreased in SPMS-A (0.79; 0.71

Objective: To examine the utility of the peripheral blood neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio (NLR) and monocyte-to-lymphocyte ratio (MLR) as biomarkers of prognosis in seropositive autoimmune encephalitis (AE). Method(s): In this multicenter study, we retrospectively analyzed 57 cases of seropositive AE with hospital admissions between January 2008 and June 2019. The initial full blood examination was used to determine each patients' NLR and MLR. The modified Rankin Scale (mRS) was utilized to assess the patients' follow-up disability at 12 months and then at final follow-up. Primary outcomes were mortality and mRS, while secondary outcomes were failure of first line treatment, ICU admission, and clinical relapse. Univariate and multivariable regression analysis was performed. Result(s): During initial hospital admission 44.7% of patients had unsuccessful first line treatment. After a median follow-up of 700 days, 82.7% had good functional outcome (mRS <=2) while five patients had died. On multivariable analysis, high NLR was associated with higher odds of first line treatment failure (OR 1.32, 95% CI 1.03-1.69, p = 0.029). Increased MLR was not associated with any short or long-term outcome. Conclusion(s): NLR on initial hospital admission blood tests may be provide important prognostic information for cases of seropositive AE. This study demonstrates the potential use of NLR as a prognostic marker in the clinical evaluation of patients with seropositive AE.© Copyright © 2021 Broadley, Wesselingh, Seneviratne, Kyndt, Beech, Buzzard, Nesbitt, D'Souza, Brodtmann, Kalincik, Butzkueven, O'Brien, Monif and Australian Autoimmune Encephalitis Consortium.

Objective To test the hypothesis that immunotherapy prevents long-term disability in relapsing-remitting multiple sclerosis (MS), we modeled disability outcomes in 14,717 patients. Methods We studied patients from MSBase followed for ≥1 year, with ≥3 visits, ≥1 visit per year, and exposed to MS therapy, and a subset of patients with ≥15-year follow-up. Marginal structural models were used to compare the cumulative hazards of 12-month confirmed increase and decrease in disability, Expanded Disability Status Scale (EDSS) step 6, and the incidence of relapses between treated and untreated periods. Marginal structural models were continuously readjusted for patient age, sex, pregnancy, date, disease course, time from first symptom, prior relapse history, disability, and MRI activity. Results A total of 14,717 patients were studied. During the treated periods, patients were less likely to experience relapses (hazard ratio 0.60, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.43–0.82, p = 0.0016), worsening of disability (0.56, 0.38–0.82, p = 0.0026), and progress to EDSS step 6 (0.33, 0.19–0.59, p = 0.00019). Among 1,085 patients with ≥15-year follow-up, the treated patients were less likely to experience relapses (0.59, 0.50–0.70, p = 10−9) and worsening of disability (0.81, 0.67–0.99, p = 0.043). Conclusion Continued treatment with MS immunotherapies reduces disability accrual by 19%–44% (95% CI 1%–62%), the risk of need of a walking aid by 67% (95% CI 41%–81%), and the frequency of relapses by 40–41% (95% CI 18%–57%) over 15 years. This study provides evidence that disease-modifying therapies are effective in improving disability outcomes in relapsing-remitting MS over the long term. Classification of Evidence This study provides Class IV evidence that, for patients with relapsing-remitting MS, long-term exposure to immunotherapy prevents neurologic disability.

Objective: Using global MSBase registry, this study establishes 6-month confirmed disability progression events as indicators of long-term disability worsening suitable for use in randomized clinical trials in multiple sclerosis (MS). Background(s): Randomized clinical trials evaluate short-term treatment effect on disability in the form of 3-6-month confirmed disability progression, but whether these translate into long-term disability outcomes is unknown. Design/Methods: A Cox proportional hazards model identified associations between patients' demographic and clinical characteristics and the probability of recovery from disability progression events. The coefficients from this model were used to calculate a sustained progression score, which was evaluated in a validation cohort and applied to a trial cohort. Result(s): 902 patients (development cohort), patient characteristics at the time of progression associated with lower probability of subsequent improvement were age (hazard ratio (HR)=0.98), primary progressive (HR=0.37) and progressive-relapsing (HR=0.36) MS, expanded disability status scale score >=6 (HR=0.71) and its change from baseline (HR=0.67), number of affected functional system scores (HR=0.92) and pyramidal (HR=0.79) functional system score (p<0.05). The strength of the association with pyramidal score decreased with time (HR=1.01). A relapse within previous month (HR=1.46) and worsening in sensory functional system score (HR=1.17) were associated with higher probability of improvement after progression. The sustained progression score (range 0.39-4.79) in the validation cohort with 1,271 progression events, estimated a 53% lower chance of improvement for each unit increase in the score (HR=0.47). The proportions of progression events sustained at 5 years stratified by the score were 1: 68%, 2: 79%, 3: 94%, 4: 100%. The progression scores were then applied to the CLARITY trial data. Conclusion(s): Estimate of the probability of disability progress

Introduction: Prevention of disability over the long-term is currently the main treatment goal in multiple sclerosis (MS). Randomized clinical trials evaluate short-term treatment effect on disability in the form of 3-6-month confirmed disability progression. Using global MSBase registry, this study establishes 6-month confirmed disability progression events as indicators of long-term disability worsening suitable for use in randomized clinical trials. Method(s): A Cox proportional hazards model in the development cohort identified associations between demographic and clinical variables at the time of disability progression and the probability of an event not being sustained in the future. The coefficients from this model were used to calculate a sustained progression score. Its association with the risk that an event will be sustained over timewas evaluated with a Cox model in the validation cohort. Result(s): 11,435 confirmed progression events identified in 6,902 patients constituted the development cohort. Patient characteristics at the time of progression associated with lower probability of subsequent improvement were age (hazard ratio (HR)=0.98), primary progressive (HR=0.37) and progressive-relapsing (HR=0.36) MS, expanded disability status scale score >=6 (HR=0.71) and its change from baseline (HR=0.67), number of affected functional system scores (HR=0.92) and pyramidal(HR=0.79) functional system score (p< 0.05). The strength of the association with pyramidal score decreased with time(HR=1.01). Occurrence of a relapse within previous month (HR=1.46) and worsening in sensory functional system score (HR=1.17) were associated with higher probability of improvement after progression. The associations were confirmed by two sensitivity analyses. The sustained progression score, ranged 0.39-4.79 in the validation cohort with 1,271 progression events, estimated a 53% lower chance of improvement with each unit increase in the score (HR=0.47, 95% confidence interval

Introduction: A decision to discontinue MS immunotherapies is common in clinical practice - whether in order to switch to another therapy or at an advanced stage of progressive MS without relapses. The evidence regarding individual risk of MS re-activation after treatment discontinuation is limited. Aim(s): To evaluate associations of demographic and clinical patient characteristics with the risk of relapses after discontinuing treatment. Both overall and treatment-specific associations are explored. Method(s): Using the global MSBase registry, we identified all patients who discontinued MS immunotherapy after >=3 months on treatment, with the recorded disability score (EDSS) at the time of discontinuing treatment, and prospectively recorded follow-up of >=6 months. The probability of experiencing a relapse after discontinuing treatment, conditional on patient characteristics, was analysed with Cox proportional hazards model. Differences in these associations among different therapies were studied with interaction terms. Result(s): 24,989 episodes of treatment discontinuation were recorded from 17,871 patients (74% female, mean age at discontinuation 39 years, 88% relapsing-remitting MS, mean MS duration 10 years, median EDSS 2.5). The patient characteristics associated with a lower hazard of MS re-activation were male sex (b=0.87, p< 0.001), older age (b=0.98, p< 0.001), MS duration (b=1.01, p< 0.001), secondary progressive MS (b=0.73, p< 0.001), longer treatment duration (0.95, p< 0.001), greater number of prior treatments (1: b=0.62, p< 0.001; >=2: b=0.39, p< 0.001) and greater number of relapses during the previous year (1: b=1.30, p< 0.001; >=2: b=1.62, p< 0.001). The characteristics associated with a greater risk of MS re-activation were clinically isolated syndrome (b=1.87, p< 0.001) and greater EDSS (4-5.5: b=1.41, p< 0.001; >=6: b=1.17, p=0.001). Therapies used more recently (dimethyl fumarate, fingolimod, natalizumab) tended to be associated with a lower h