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A crime epidemic appears to have erupted in many advanced economies, raising questions on whether higher unemployment leads to greater incidence of crime. In this paper, we establish a robust connection between unemployment and crime, considering both violent and non-violent crimes, in a 4 variable time-varying VAR setting in identifying four shocks: unemployment, output, migration fear, and crime shocks. Using data from France and the UK over the time period 1975Q1 to 2013Q4 and 1983Q1 to 2018Q2 respectively, we find significant positive effects of unemployment shocks on crime rates in both countries, particularly so during the times of economic contraction. We also find that crime rates decline during times of economic expansion (in response to a positive shock in GDP growth). Considering shocks in migration fears, we find that migration fears are fuelling higher incidence of crime in France, whereas unemployment shock continues to drive crime rates in the UK. Undertaking further analysis for a single country at quarterly frequency for the UK, and with panel data from 24 countries at annual frequency over the period 1998 to 2016, we support our main hypothesis that higher unemployment rate tends to increase non-violent crime. Our results imply that maintaining stable economic activity is critical in order to stabilize incidence of non-violent crime. These findings have political significance, given the recent unprecedented levels of concern and uncertainty about migration in European countries. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In times of crisis, innovation and entrepreneurship can be considered as a path out of valuation uncertainty of firms. All types of innovation output, however, may not have a similar impact across different firm size and sectors during bad times. Specifically, financially less-constrained (high leverage) innovative firms could be valued higher or experience less uncertainty in their performance. By considering the innovation intensity and leverage in pre- and post-2008 financial crisis periods, and using firm-level quarterly data from listed firms in the UK during 2000–2014, we find that leveraged firms can achieve greater valuation and mitigate any valuation uncertainty in the post-crisis period if they are knowledge- or high-technology intensive. In terms of size effect, although leverage distorts market valuation of large UK firms, the impact is positive for SMEs that are innovation intensive. Finally, in terms of sectoral effect, firms within manufacturing and services with leverage have benefitted from R&D and patenting activities during the post-crisis period, but not in the pre-crisis period. This also gets revealed when we classify all firms into high-tech and low-tech sectors, implying that firms in the high-tech sectors with debt dependence have benefitted favorably in terms of higher valuation and lower uncertainty in the post-crisis period, not firms in the low-technology sectors, reflecting further the role of technological intensity in firm valuation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract Financial inclusion has become an important public policy priority following the recent global financial crisis. Yet, we know very little of how it impacts soundness of the providers of financial services. Using an international sample of 2635 banks in 86 countries over the period 2004–12, we find that higher level of financial inclusion contributes to greater bank stability. The positive association is particularly pronounced with those banks that have higher customer deposit funding share and lower marginal costs of providing banking services; and also with those that operate in countries with stronger institutional quality. The results are robust to instrumental variables analysis, controlling for bank fixed effects, alternative measures of financial inclusion, among several other robustness tests. Our results highlight that the importance of ensuring inclusive financial system is not only a development goal but also an issue that should be prioritised by banks, as such a policy drive is good for their stability. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Resumen Con datos de la NBER-CES Manufacturing Industry Database, los autores identifican una relación positiva entre la tecnología inferida a partir de la productividad total de los factores y las razones entre trabajadores calificados y no calificados y entre sus salarios, pero solo en sectores de base científica e intensivos en producción, mientras que es negativa en los dominados por el proveedor. Confirman la prima salarial por calificación y el aumento del sesgo tecnológico hacia el trabajo calificado desde 1980. Las diferencias de productividad entre trabajadores calificados y no calificados aumentan la demanda relativa de los primeros cuando ambos no son intercambiables. Concluyen que los gobiernos deberían promover la innovación de base científica. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: Using a modified deprivation (or poverty) function, in this paper, we theoretically study the changes in poverty with respect to the ‘global’ mean and variance of the income distribution using Indian survey data. We show that when the income obeys a log-normal distribution, a rising mean income generally indicates a reduction in poverty while an increase in the variance of the income distribution increases poverty. This altruistic view for a developing economy, however, is not tenable anymore once the poverty index is found to follow a pareto distribution. Here although a rising mean income indicates a reduction in poverty, due to the presence of an inflexion point in the poverty function, there is a critical value of the variance below which poverty decreases with increasing variance while beyond this value, poverty undergoes a steep increase followed by a decrease with respect to higher variance. Identifying this inflexion point as the poverty line, we show that the pareto poverty function satisfies all three standard axioms of a poverty index [N.C. Kakwani, Econometrica 43 (1980) 437; A.K. Sen, Econometrica 44 (1976) 219] whereas the log-normal distribution falls short of this requisite. Following these results, we make quantitative predictions to correlate a developing with a developed economy. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: Using a small macroeconometric model that examines the determinants of India''s trade and inflation, this paper addresses the effects of a reform policy package similar to those implemented in 1991. Policy simulations using dynamic simulation method compare the responses to devaluation with the responses to tight credit policy. It is shown that the trade balance effects of tight credit policy are more enduring than that of devaluation, conditional on inflation being modelled in an open economy context. The simulations demonstrate that the devaluation actually worsens trade balance and hence devaluation cannot be an option in response to a negative trade shock, whereas the reduction in domestic credit reflecting demand contraction can produce a desirable improvement in the trade balance. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

This paper attempts an eclectic synthesis on long-term growth, which integrates two standard models - the neoclassical model with the endogenous growth and export-led model of growth. A vector autoregressive (VAR) model has been used for India from 1950 to 1995 using Johansen's multivariate cointegration approach to derive latent equilibrium relationships, and the short-run error correction equations are then estimated. Two cointegrating relationships for real output and real private investment, respectively, were found. Output is determined by private investment, human capital, real interest rate and public investment. Private investment is driven by public investment, domestic credit to the private sector,real interest rate and human capital. This seems to support a McKinnon-Shaw model in the long run and a Keynesian/Structuralist view in the short run. The long-run model also validates the hypothesis that growth has not been export-led in India, rather it is growth-driven exports. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Starting from a stochastic agent-based model to represent market exchange in a developing economy, we study time variations of the probability density function of income with simultaneous variation of the consumption deprivation (CD), where CD represents the shortfall in consumption from the saturation level of an essential commodity, cereal. Together, these two models combine income-expenditure-based market dynamics with time variations in consumption due to income. In this new unified theoretical structure, exchange of trade in assets is only allowed when the income exceeds consumption-deprivation while CD itself is endogenously obtained from a separate kinetic model. Our results reveal that the nature of time variation of the CD function leads to a downward trend in the threshold level of consumption of basic necessities, suggesting a possible dietary transition in terms of lower saturation level of food-grain consumption, possibly through an improvement in the level of living. The new poverty index, defined as CD, is amenable to approximate probabilistic prediction within a short time horizon. A major achievement of this work is the intrinsic independence of the poverty index from an exogenous poverty line, making it more objective for policy formulation as opposed to existing poverty indices in the literature. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]