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Glacier mass loss is an iconic process induced by anthropogenic climate change. It threatens human livelihood at coasts affected by the rising sea level and in glacierized hydrological basins where the glacial runoff is essential for water availability. Moreover, as glacier mass loss adds large amounts of freshwater to the oceans, it might alter ocean circulation in a way that affects marine ecosystems and the climate system. Only recently, satellite-data processing revealed mass changes on an individual glacier level (outside the large ice sheets), but only for the last two decades. Glacier mass change observations become increasingly sparse going back in time. Therefore, the glaciers’ past contribution to global mean sea level rise can only be reconstructed using numerical models. Since glacier mass change will continue during this century, it is vital to understand how this will affect global mean sea level, ocean circulation, and regional hydrology. Again, this is only possible using numerical models. Hence, it is essential to improve these models by incorporating previously neglected processes of glacier mass change into them, mainly in the form of parametrizations, and by constraining them using observations. Moreover, it is crucial to understand the uncertainties of results produced by numerical models, as they can never fully represent the natural world, which also hinges on the amount and quality of observational data. This work will tackle aspects of three issues in numerically modeling glacier mass changes: past glacier mass change reconstructions’ uncertainties, future mass change projections’ uncertainties, specifically regarding marine-terminating glaciers, and ice-ocean interactions in the northern hemisphere outside the Greenland ice sheet. All three issues are relevant in addressing the question of how glaciers respond to changes in their mass balance due to climatic changes and what consequences such changes have for the Earth system and, ultimately, human livelihood. It is found that the further outside the glaciological and meteorological observations’ spatial and temporal domain a numerical model is applied, the more uncertain reconstructed glacier mass changes become. Similarly, one primary source of uncertainty in future glacier mass change projections is the difference in climate models’ outputs of near-surface temperatures and precipitation. More accurately describing marine-terminating glacier dynamics and considering volume changes below sea level reduces estimates of future glacier contribution to global mean sea level rise systematically. However, significant uncertainties due to uncertainty about appropriate values for parameters involved in modeling (marine-terminating) glaciers’ dynamics are detected. Concerning ice-ocean interactions, it was found that including the freshwater input from glacier mass loss in the northern hemisphere (outside the Greenland ice sheet) in an ocean general circulation model significantly impacts the simulated high-latitude ocean circulation. Finally, a first estimate of the ice mass glaciers lose due to melting directly into the ocean was produced.

The ocean mass budget plays a crucial role in predicting future changes in ocean mass and sea level. In recent efforts to reconcile observations from GRACE and GRACE-Follow On satellites with steric-corrected altimetry and models of contributions from land and ice a discrepancy in the mass budget has been reported (Wang et al, 2022; Barnoud et al, 2022), in particular in the period following the launch of GRACE-Follow On. In this study, we aim to compare 20 years of GRACE-observed mass changes with steric-corrected altimetry and GRD-induced sea level changes resulting from landmass changes.To accomplish this, we produce monthly 3D global mass change products with a spatial resolution of 0.5 degrees, covering the period from 2003 to 2022. We improve the processing steps for steric-corrected satellite altimetry by accounting for ocean bottom deformation, removing the global mean contribution of halosteric sea level change, and replacing the radiometer-based wet tropospheric correction with a model-based correction.Our results indicate that both the steric-corrected altimetry and ocean mass reconstruction from GRD-induced sea level change is in agreement with the GRACE observations on both long-term and seasonal time scales and regional scales. We also find that a recent slowdown in GRACE-observed mass change during the GRACE-FO period can be attributed to terrestrial water storage variability driven by a long phase of La Nina and a deceleration in the mass loss of Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets., The 28th IUGG General Assembly (IUGG2023) (Berlin 2023)

Glacier mass loss is recognized as a major contributor to current sea level rise. However, large uncertainties remain in projections of glacier mass loss on global and regional scales. We present an ensemble of 288 glacier mass and area change projections for the 21st century based on 11 glacier models using up to 10 general circulation models and four Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) as boundary conditions. We partition the total uncertainty into the individual contributions caused by glacier models, general circulation models, RCPs, and natural variability. We find that emission scenario uncertainty is growing throughout the 21st century and is the largest source of uncertainty by 2100. The relative importance of glacier model uncertainty decreases over time, but it is the greatest source of uncertainty until the middle of this century. The projection uncertainty associated with natural variability is small on the global scale but can be large on regional scales. The projected global mass loss by 2100 relative to 2015 (79 ± 56 mm sea level equivalent for RCP2.6, 159 ± 86 mm sea level equivalent for RCP8.5) is lower than, but well within, the uncertainty range of previous projections.

Glacier mass loss is recognized as a major contributor to current sea level rise. However, large uncertainties remain in projections of glacier mass loss on global and regional scales. We present an ensemble of 288 glacier mass and area change projections for the 21st century based on 11 glacier models using up to 10 general circulation models and four Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) as boundary conditions. We partition the total uncertainty into the individual contributions caused by glacier models, general circulation models, RCPs, and natural variability. We find that emission scenario uncertainty is growing throughout the 21st century and is the largest source of uncertainty by 2100. The relative importance of glacier model uncertainty decreases over time, but it is the greatest source of uncertainty until the middle of this century. The projection uncertainty associated with natural variability is small on the global scale but can be large on regional scales. The projected global mass loss by 2100 relative to 2015 (79 ± 56 mm sea level equivalent for RCP2.6, 159 ± 86 mm sea level equivalent for RCP8.5) is lower than, but well within, the uncertainty range of previous projections.

Glacier mass loss is recognized as a major contributor to current sea level rise. However, large uncertainties remain in projections of glacier mass loss on global and regional scales. We present an ensemble of 288 glacier mass and area change projections for the 21st century based on 11 glacier models using up to 10 general circulation models and four Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) as boundary conditions. We partition the total uncertainty into the individual contributions caused by glacier models, general circulation models, RCPs, and natural variability. We find that emission scenario uncertainty is growing throughout the 21st century and is the largest source of uncertainty by 2100. The relative importance of glacier model uncertainty decreases over time, but it is the greatest source of uncertainty until the middle of this century. The projection uncertainty associated with natural variability is small on the global scale but can be large on regional scales. The projected global mass loss by 2100 relative to 2015 (79 ± 56 mm sea level equivalent for RCP2.6, 159 ± 86 mm sea level equivalent for RCP8.5) is lower than, but well within, the uncertainty range of previous projections., Earth's Future, 8 (7), ISSN:2328-4277

Glacier mass loss is recognized as a major contributor to current sea level rise. However, large uncertainties remain in projections of glacier mass loss on global and regional scales. We present an ensemble of 288 glacier mass and area change projections for the 21st century based on 11 glacier models using up to 10 general circulation models and four Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) as boundary conditions. We partition the total uncertainty into the individual contributions caused by glacier models, general circulation models, RCPs, and natural variability. We find that emission scenario uncertainty is growing throughout the 21st century and is the largest source of uncertainty by 2100. The relative importance of glacier model uncertainty decreases over time, but it is the greatest source of uncertainty until the middle of this century. The projection uncertainty associated with natural variability is small on the global scale but can be large on regional scales. The projected global mass loss by 2100 relative to 2015 (79 ± 56 mm sea level equivalent for RCP2.6, 159 ± 86 mm sea level equivalent for RCP8.5) is lower than, but well within, the uncertainty range of previous projections. ISSN:2328-4277