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Hurricane forecast graphics have the challenging task of communicating information about spatial and temporal uncertainty. Although forecasting accuracy has improved, the popular track forecast cone or "Cone of Uncertainty" graphic, produced by the National Hurricane Center, is poorly understood by the general public. A better understanding of the forecast can potentially assist in timely decisions and life-saving actions. This study evaluates the impact of visualization design, tropical cyclone characteristics, subjective numeracy, and subjective graphicacy on visual attention to and user interpretation of hurricane forecast graphics. Forty-three non-expert participants completed forecast path estimates for nine tropical cyclones, comparing their responses when using the National Hurricane Center's cone of uncertainty graphic and two alternative forecast visualizations. Results show that design modifications did not alter visual attention patterns or improve interpretations. Results also indicate that subjective numeracy, subjective graphicacy, and tropical cyclone characteristics, in combination, influence estimates of hurricane forecast tracks. The findings from this study inform redesign efforts of hurricane risk communication products. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Computer model simulations are one of the most important tools in current use for understanding tropical cyclone (TC) formation and rapid intensification (RI). These include "idealized" simulations in which a TC‐like vortex is placed in a hypothetical environment with predefined sea surface temperature and vertical profiles of temperature, humidity, and wind that are either constant or slowly varying across a large domain. The vast majority of such simulations begin with a perfectly circular vortex as the precursor to a TC. However, most real TCs form or intensify while interacting with asymmetric wind fields either within or external to the vortex circulation. This study introduces a method to initialize idealized TC simulations with asymmetries, and investigates the extent to which such asymmetries might delay RI in favorable environments. It is shown that mesoscale asymmetries can delay RI and reduce the fastest rates of intensification, and that these effects are statistically significantly increased when relatively low values of vertical shear of the horizontal wind are present. In some cases the asymmetries tilt the vortex directly through advection. In other cases, the wind asymmetries increase the disorganization of the convection or increase the size of the inner‐core wind field, and thus make the weaker TC more susceptible to environmental wind shear. The results suggest that mesoscale asymmetries of the wind field could be useful predictors for delay of RI in otherwise favorable environments. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]