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Outcomes for surgical patients with limited English proficiency (LEP) may be worse compared to patients with English proficiency. We sought to evaluate the association of LEP with outcomes for trauma patients.Admitted adult patients on trauma service at two Level One trauma centers from 2015 to 2019 were identified.12,562 patients were included in total; 7.3% had LEP. On multivariable analyses, patients with LEP had lower odds of discharge to post-acute care versus home compared to patients with English proficiency (OR 0.69; 95% CI 0.58-0.83; p 0.001) but had similar length of stay (Beta coefficient 1.16; 95% CI 0.00-2.32; p = 0.05), and 30-day readmission (OR 1.08; 95% CI 0.87-1.35; p = 0.46).Trauma patients with LEP had comparable short-term outcomes to English proficient patients but were less likely to be discharged to post-acute care facilities. The role of structural barriers, family preferences, and other factors merit future investigation.

Intraoperative deaths (IODs) are rare but catastrophic. We systematically analyzed IODs to identify clinical and patient safety patterns.IODs in a large academic center between 2015 and 2019 were included. Perioperative details were systematically reviewed, focusing on (1) identifying phenotypes of IOD, (2) describing emerging themes immediately preceding cardiac arrest, and (3) suggesting interventions to mitigate IOD in each phenotype.Forty-one patients were included. Three IOD phenotypes were identified: trauma (T), nontrauma emergency (NT), and elective (EL) surgery patients, each with 2 sub-phenotypes (e.g., ELm and ELv for elective surgery with medical arrests or vascular injury and bleeding, respectively). In phenotype T, cardiopulmonary resuscitation was initiated before incision in 42%, resuscitative thoracotomy was performed in 33%, and transient return of spontaneous circulation was achieved in 30% of patients. In phenotype NT, ruptured aortic aneurysms accounted for half the cases, and median blood product utilization was 2,694 mL. In phenotype ELm, preoperative evaluation did not include electrocardiogram in 12%, cardiac consultation in 62%, stress test in 87%, and chest x-ray in 37% of patients. In phenotype ELv, 83% had a single peripheral intravenous line, and vascular injury was almost always followed by escalation in monitoring (e.g., central/arterial line), alert to the blood bank, and call for surgical backup.We have created a framework for IOD that can help with intraoperative safety and quality analysis. Focusing on interventions that address appropriateness versus futility in care in phenotypes T and NT, and on prevention and mitigation of intraoperative vessel injury (e.g., intraoperative rescue team) or preoperative optimization in phenotype EL may help prevent IODs.

The Trauma Outcomes Predictor tool was recently derived using a machine learning methodology called optimal classification trees and validated for prediction of outcomes in trauma patients. The Trauma Outcomes Predictor is available as an interactive smartphone application. In this study, we sought to assess the performance of the Trauma Outcomes Predictor in the elderly trauma patient.All patients aged 65 years and older in the American College of Surgeons-Trauma Quality Improvement Program 2017 database were included. The performance of the Trauma Outcomes Predictor in predicting in-hospital mortality and combined and specific morbidity based on incidence of 9 specific in-hospital complications was assessed using the c-statistic methodology, with planned subanalyses for patients 65 to 74, 75 to 84, and 85+ years.A total of 260,505 patients were included. Median age was 77 (71-84) years, 57% were women, and 98.8% had a blunt mechanism of injury. The Trauma Outcomes Predictor accurately predicted mortality in all patients, with excellent performance for penetrating trauma (c-statistic: 0.92) and good performance for blunt trauma (c-statistic: 0.83). Its best performance was in patients 65 to 74 years (c-statistic: blunt 0.86, penetrating 0.93). Among blunt trauma patients, the Trauma Outcomes Predictor had the best discrimination for predicting acute respiratory distress syndrome (c-statistic 0.75) and cardiac arrest requiring cardiopulmonary resuscitation (c-statistic 0.75). Among penetrating trauma patients, the Trauma Outcomes Predictor had the best discrimination for deep and organ space surgical site infections (c-statistics 0.95 and 0.84, respectively).The Trauma Outcomes Predictor is a novel, interpretable, and highly accurate predictor of in-hospital mortality in the elderly trauma patient up to age 85 years. The Trauma Outcomes Predictor could prove useful for bedside counseling of elderly patients and their families and for benchmarking the quality of geriatric trauma care.

Grading systems for acute cholecystitis are essential to compare outcomes, improve quality, and advance research. The American Association for the Surgery of Trauma (AAST) grading system for acute cholecystitis was only moderately discriminant when predicting multiple outcomes and underperformed the Tokyo guidelines and Parkland grade. We hypothesized that through additional expert consensus, the predictive capacity of the AAST anatomic grading system could be improved.A modified Delphi approach was used to revise the AAST grading system. Changes were made to improve distribution of patients across grades, and additional key clinical variables were introduced. The revised version was assessed using prospectively collected data from an AAST multicenter study. Patient distribution across grades was assessed, and the revised grading system was evaluated based on predictive capacity using area under receiver operating characteristic curves for conversion from laparoscopic to an open procedure, use of a surgical "bail-out" procedure, bile leak, major complications, and discharge home. A preoperative AAST grade was defined based on preoperative, clinical, and radiologic data, and the Parkland grade was also substituted for the operative component of the AAST grade.Using prospectively collected data on 861 patients with acute cholecystitis the revised version of the AAST grade has an improved distribution across all grades, both the overall grade and across each subscale. A higher AAST grade predicted each of the outcomes assessed (all p ≤ 0.01). The revised AAST grade outperformed the original AAST grade for predicting operative outcomes and discharge disposition. Despite this improvement, the AAST grade did not outperform the Parkland grade or the Emergency Surgery Score.The revised AAST grade and the preoperative AAST grade demonstrated improved discrimination; however, a purely anatomic grade based on chart review is unlikely to predict outcomes without addition of physiologic variables. Follow-up validation will be necessary.Diagnostic Test or Criteria, Level IV.

Background Body mass index (BMI) does not reliably predict Surgical site infections (SSI). We hypothesize that abdominal wall thickness (AWT) would serve as a better predictor of SSI for patients undergoing emergency colon operations. Methods We retrospectively evaluated our Emergency Surgery Database (2007-2018). Emergency colon operations for any indication were included. AWT was measured by pre-operative CT scans at 5 locations. Only superficial and deep SSIs were considered as SSI in the analysis. Univariate then multivariable analyses were used to determine predictors of SSI. Results 236 patients met inclusion criteria. The incidence of post-operative SSI was 25.8% and the median BMI was 25.8kg/m2 [22.5-30.1]. The median AWT between patients with and without SSI was significantly different (2.1cm [1.4, 2.8] and 1.8cm [1.2, 2.5], respectively). A higher BMI trended toward increased rates of SSI, but this was not statistically significant. In overweight (BMI 25-29.9kg/m2) and obese (BMI ≥30kg/m2) patients, SSI versus no SSI rates were (50.0% versus 41.9% and 47.4% versus 36.4%, P = 0.365 and 0.230) respectively. The incidence of SSI in patients with an average AWT Conclusions AWT is a better predictor of SSI than BMI. Preoperative imaging of AWT may direct intraoperative decisions regarding wound management. Future clinical outcomes research in emergency surgery should include abdominal wall thickness as an important patient variable.

Artificial intelligence (AI) has made increasing inroads in clinical medicine. In surgery, machine learning-based algorithms are being studied for use as decision aids in risk prediction and even for intraoperative applications, including image recognition and video analysis. While AI has great promise in surgery, these algorithms come with a series of potential pitfalls that cannot be ignored as hospital systems and surgeons consider implementing these technologies. The aim of this review is to discuss the progress, promise, and pitfalls of AI in surgery.

Background The Syrian conflict has produced one of the largest refugee crises in modern times. Lebanon has taken in more Syrian refugees per capita than any other nation. We aimed to study the burden of surgical disease and access to surgical care among Syrian refugees in Lebanon. Methods This study was designed as a convenient cross-sectional cluster-based population survey of all refugee camps throughout the Bekaa region of Lebanon. We used a modified version of the Surgeons OverSeas Assessment of Surgical Need to identify surgical conditions and barriers to care access. The head of household of each informal tented settlement provided demographic information after which two household members were randomly chosen and administered the survey. Results A total of 1,500 individuals from 750 households representing 21 camps were surveyed. Respondents had a mean age of 36.6 (15.0) years, 54.6% were female, and 59% were illiterate. Nearly 25% of respondents reported at least one surgical condition within the past year, most commonly involving the face, head, and neck region (32%) and extremities (22%). Less than 20% of patients with a surgical condition reported seeing any healthcare provider, > 75% due to financial hardship. Conclusions The prevalence of surgical disease among Syrian refugees is very high with a fourth of refugees suffering from one or more surgical conditions over the past year. The surgical needs of this vulnerable population are largely unmet as financial reasons prevent patients from seeking care. Local and humanitarian efforts need to include increased access to surgical care.

Background: There is little research evaluating outcomes from sepsis in intensive care units (ICUs) with lower sepsis patient volumes as compared to ICUs with higher sepsis patient volumes. Our objective was to compare the outcomes of septic patients admitted to ICUs with different sepsis patient volumes. Materials and Methods: We included all patients from the eICU-CRD database admitted for the management of sepsis with blood lactate ≥ 2mmol/L within 24 hours of admission. Our primary outcome was ICU mortality. Secondary outcomes included hospital mortality, 30-day ventilator free days, and initiation of renal replacement therapy (RRT). ICUs were grouped in quartiles based on the number of septic patients treated at each unit. Results: 10,716 patients were included in our analysis; 272 (2.5%) in low sepsis volume ICUs, 1,078 (10.1%) in medium-low sepsis volume ICUs, 2,608 (24.3%) in medium-high sepsis volume ICUs, and 6,758 (63.1%) in high sepsis volume ICUs. On multivariable analyses, no significant differences were documented regarding ICU and hospital mortality, and ventilator days in patients treated in lower versus higher sepsis volume ICUs. Patients treated at lower sepsis volume ICUs had lower rates of RRT initiation as compared to high volume units (medium-high vs. high: OR = 0.78, 95%CI = 0.66-0.91, P-value = 0.002 and medium-low vs. high: OR = 0.57, 95%CI = 0.44-0.73, P-value < 0.001). Conclusion: The previously described volume-outcome association in septic patients was not identified in an intensive care setting.

A minimally invasive step-up (MIS) approach for management of necrotizing pancreatitis (NP) has been associated with reduced morbidity and mortality compared with open surgical techniques. We sought to evaluate bleeding complications in NP patients treated with a MIS approach and to describe the management and outcomes of these events.An observational, cohort study was performed using a prospectively maintained NP database at a tertiary referral center from 2013 to 2019.Of 119 NP patients, 13% suffering bleeding events, and 18% underwent an intervention. There was a 6-fold higher mortality rate in patients with bleeding events (n = 3; 18.8%) compared with those without (n = 3; 2.9%) ( P = 0.031). The most common intervention for hemorrhage control was endovascular coil embolization (75%), which was successful 88% of the time. Seven patients underwent prophylactic vascular intervention, which was 100% successful in preventing bleeding events from the embolized vessel.Bleeding events in NP patients treated with a MIS approach are associated with a 6-fold increase in mortality. Endovascular intervention is an effective strategy for the management of bleeding events. Prophylactic embolization may be an effective technique for reducing bleeding complications.

Hospital readmission is an important quality-of-care indicator. We sought to examine the rates and predictors of unplanned readmission for the high-risk non-trauma emergency laparotomy patient.This is a post hoc analysis of a multicenter prospective observational study. Between April 2018 and June 2019, a total of 19 centers enrolled all adult patients undergoing emergency laparotomies and systematically collected preoperative, operative, and 30-day postoperative variables. For the purpose of this study, we defined unplanned readmission as a readmission occurring within 30 days from discharge and one that was immediately preceded by an emergency department visit. Patients were excluded if they died during the index admission, were discharged to hospice, or were transferred to other hospitals. Predictors of unplanned readmission were evaluated using a multivariable logistic regression model, adjusting for patient demographics, comorbidities, laboratory variables, and preoperative acuity of disease variables.A total of 1,347 patients were included, of which 234 (17.4%) had an unplanned readmission. The median patient age was 60 y, 49.4% were male, and 71.4% were white. The most common diagnoses were hollow viscus perforation (28.1%) and small bowel obstruction (24.5%). Predictors of unplanned readmission included patient factors (eg, disseminated cancer [odds ratio: 2.22, confidence interval: 1.35-3.64, P = .002], weight loss10% in the past 6 months [odds ratio: 1.65, confidence interval: 1.07-2.54, P = .023], dyspnea at baseline [odds ratio: 1.62, confidence interval: 1.06-2.48, P = .026], wound complications [odds ratio: 2.23, confidence interval: 1.55-3.19, P.001], and discharge to nursing homes [odds ratio: 1.68, confidence interval: 1.02-2.80, P = .044]).Unplanned readmission after emergency laparotomies are common, especially for patients with wound complications or requiring nursing homes. These system factors are potential quality improvement targets to reduce readmissions.

Background The Emergency Surgery Score (ESS) has been previously validated as a reliable tool to predict postoperative outcomes in emergency general surgery (EGS). The purpose of this study is to assess the differential performance of the ESS in specific EGS procedures. Methods The American College of Surgeons’ National Surgical Quality Improvement Program database was retrospectively analyzed for patients undergoing EGS between 2007 and 2017. Patients who underwent the following EGS procedures were identified: laparoscopic appendectomy, laparoscopic cholecystectomy, surgery for small bowel obstruction (SBO), colectomy, and incarcerated ventral or inguinal hernia repair. The performance of the ESS in predicting mortality in each procedure was assessed using receiver operating characteristic analyses. Results A total of 467,803 patients underwent EGS (mean age 50 ± 19.9 y, females 241,330 [51.6%]), of which 191,930 (41%) underwent laparoscopic appendectomy, 40,353 (8.6%) underwent laparoscopic cholecystectomy, and 35,152 (7.5%) patients underwent surgery for SBO. The ESS correlated extremely well with mortality for patients who underwent laparoscopic appendectomy (area under the curve (AUC) 0.91), laparoscopic cholecystectomy (AUC 0.91), lysis of adhesions for SBO (AUC 0.83), colectomy (AUC 0.83), and incarcerated hernia repair (AUC 0.85). Conclusions ESS performance accurately predicts mortality across a wide range of EGS procedures, and its use should be encouraged for preoperative patient counseling and for nationally benchmarking the quality of care of EGS.

Background The quality of emergency general surgery (EGS) studies that use the American College of Surgeons-National Quality Improvement Program (ACS-NSQIP) database is variable. We aimed to critically appraise the methodologic reporting of EGS ACS-NSQIP studies. Study design We searched the PubMed ACS-NSQIP bibliography for EGS studies published from 2004 to 2019. The quality of reporting of each study was assessed according to the number of criteria fulfilled with respect to the 13-item RECORD statement and the 10-item JAMA Surgery checklist. Three criteria in each checklist were not applicable and were therefore excluded. An analysis was conducted comparing studies published in high and low impact factor (IF) journals. Results We identified a total of 99 eligible studies. Twenty-six percent of studies were published in high IF journals, and 73% of the journals had a policy requiring adherence to reporting statements. The median number of criteria fulfilled for the RECORD statement (out of 10 items) and the JAMA Surgery checklist (out of 7 items) were both equal to 4 (interquartile range [IQR] 3, 5). Sixty-three percent of studies did not explain the methodology for data cleaning, 81% of studies did not describe the population selection process, and 55% did not discuss the implications of missing variables. There were no differences in overall scores between studies published in high and low IF journals. Conclusions The methodologic reporting of EGS studies using ACS-NSQIP remains suboptimal. Future efforts should focus on improving adherence to the policies to mitigate potential sources of bias and improve the credibility of large database studies.

Background Classic risk assessment tools often treat patients' risk factors as linear and additive. Clinical reality suggests that the presence of certain risk factors can alter the impact of other factors; in other words, risk modeling is not linear. We aimed to use artificial intelligence (AI) technology to design and validate a nonlinear risk calculator for trauma patients. Methods A novel, interpretable AI technology called Optimal Classification Trees (OCTs) was used in an 80:20 derivation/validation split of the 2010 to 2016 American College of Surgeons Trauma Quality Improvement Program database. Demographics, emergency department vital signs, comorbidities, and injury characteristics (e.g., severity, mechanism) of all blunt and penetrating trauma patients 18 years or older were used to develop, train then validate OCT algorithms to predict in-hospital mortality and complications (e.g., acute kidney injury, acute respiratory distress syndrome, deep vein thrombosis, pulmonary embolism, sepsis). A smartphone application was created as the algorithm's interactive and user-friendly interface. Performance was measured using the c-statistic methodology. Results A total of 934,053 patients were included (747,249 derivation; 186,804 validation). The median age was 51 years, 37% were women, 90.5% had blunt trauma, and the median Injury Severity Score was 11. Comprehensive OCT algorithms were developed for blunt and penetrating trauma, and the interactive smartphone application, Trauma Outcome Predictor (TOP) was created, where the answer to one question unfolds the subsequent one. Trauma Outcome Predictor accurately predicted mortality in penetrating injury (c-statistics: 0.95 derivation, 0.94 validation) and blunt injury (c-statistics: 0.89 derivation, 0.88 validation). The validation c-statistics for predicting complications ranged between 0.69 and 0.84. Conclusion We suggest TOP as an AI-based, interpretable, accurate, and nonlinear risk calculator for predicting outcome in trauma patients. Trauma Outcome Predictor can prove useful for bedside counseling of critically injured trauma patients and their families, and for benchmarking the quality of trauma care.

In resource-limited countries, open appendectomy is still performed under general anesthesia (GA) or neuraxial anesthesia (NA). We sought to compare the postoperative outcomes of appendectomy under NA versus GA. We conducted a post hoc analysis of the International Patterns of Opioid Prescribing (iPOP) multicenter study. All patients ≥ 16 years-old who underwent an open appendectomy between October 2016 and March 2017 in one of the 14 participating hospitals were included. Patients were stratified into two groups: NA—defined as spinal or epidural—and GA. All-cause morbidity, hospital length of stay (LOS), and pain severity were assessed using univariate analysis followed by multivariable logistic regression adjusting for the following preoperative characteristics: age, gender, body mass index (BMI), smoking, history of opioid use, emergency status, and country. A total of 655 patients were included, 353 of which were in the NA group and 302 in the GA group. The countries operating under NA were Colombia (39%), Thailand (31%), China (23%), and Brazil (7%). Overall, NA patients were younger (mean age (SD): 34.5 (14.4) vs. 40.7 (17.9), p-value 3 days, OR, 95% CI: 0.47 [0.32–0.68]) compared to GA. There was no difference in postoperative pain severity between the two techniques. Open appendectomy performed under NA is associated with improved outcomes compared to that performed under GA. Further randomized controlled studies should examine the safety and value of NA in lower abdominal surgery.

Background: Trauma patients are at a significant risk of venous thromboembolism (VTE), with lower extremity fractures (LEF) being independent risk factors. Use of direct oral anticoagusants (DOACs) for VTE prophylaxis is effective in elective orthopedic surgery, but currently not approved for trauma patients. The primary objective of this study was to compare the effectiveness and safety of thromboprophylaxis of DOACs with lowmolecular-weight heparin (LMWH) in trauma patients sustaining LEF.Materials and methods: We included adult trauma patients admitted to trauma quality improvement program participating trauma centers (between 2013 and 2016), who sustained LEF and were started on DOACs or LMWH for thromboprophylaxis after admission. Propensity score matching was performed to compare symptomatic VTE and bleeding control interventions between the groups.Results: Of 1,009,922 patients in trauma quality improvement program, 167,640 met inclusion criteria (165,009 received LMWH and 2631 received DOACs). After propensity score matching, 2280 predominantly elderly (median age: 67 y) isolated femur fracture patients (median ISS: 10) were included in each group (4560 patients in total). Symptomatic VTE occurred in 1.4% of patients in both matched groups (P = 0.992). Bleeding control interventions occurred less often in the DOAC group, albeit statistically insignificant (5.8% versus 6.0%, P = 0.772).Conclusions: This study found similar rates of VTE and bleeding control measures for thromboprophylaxis with DOACs or LMWH in matched trauma patients with LEF. Further prospective research is warranted to consolidate the safety of DOAC thromboprophylaxis in trauma patients with LEF. Favorable oral administration and likely increased adherence could benefit this high-risk population. (C) 2020 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Inc.

Introduction Scarcity of operating rooms and personal protective equipment in far-forward field settings make surgical infections a potential concern for combat mortality and morbidity. Surgical and transport personnel also face infectious risks from bodily fluid exposures. Our study aimed to describe the serial, proof-of-concept testing of the SurgiBox technology: an inflatable sterile environment that addresses the aforementioned problems, fits on gurneys and backpacks, and drapes over incisions. Materials and Methods The SurgiBox environmental control unit and inflatable enclosure were optimized over five generations based on iterative feedback from stakeholders experienced in surgery in austere settings. The airflow system was developed by analytic modeling, verified through in silico modeling in SOLIDWORKS, and confirmed with prototype smoke-trail checking. Particulate counts evaluated the enclosure’s ability to control and mitigate users’ exposures to potentially infectious contaminants from the surgical field in various settings. SurgiBox enclosures were setup over a mannequin’s torso, in a configuration and position for either thoracic or abdominal surgery. A particle counter was serially positioned in sternotomy and laparotomy positions, as well as bilateral flank positions. This setup was repeated with open ports exposing the enclosure to the external environment. To simulate stress scenarios, sampling was repeated with enclosure measurements during an increase in external particulate concentration. Results The airflow technology effectively kept contaminants away from the incision and maintained a pressure differential to reduce particle entry. Benchtop testing demonstrated that even when ports were opened or the external environment had high contaminant burden, the enclosed surgical field consistently registered 0 particle count in all positions. Time from kit opening to incision averaged 54.5 seconds, with the rate-limiting step being connecting the environmental control unit to the enclosure. The portable kit weighted 5.9 lbs. Conclusions Analytic, in silico, and mechanical airflow modeling and benchtop testing have helped to quantify the SurgiBox system’s reliability in creating and maintaining an operating room-quality surgical field within the enclosure as well as protecting the surgical team outside the enclosure. More recent and ongoing work has focused on specifying optimal use settings in the casualty chain of care, expanding support for circumferential procedures, automating airflow control, and accelerating system setup. SurgiBox’s ultimate goal is to take timely, safe surgery to patients in even the most austere of settings.

Objective We sought to assess the performance of the Predictive OpTimal Trees in Emergency Surgery Risk (POTTER) tool in elderly emergency surgery (ES) patients. Summary background data The POTTER tool was derived using a novel Artificial Intelligence (AI)-methodology called optimal classification trees and validated for prediction of ES outcomes. POTTER outperforms all existent risk-prediction models and is available as an interactive smartphone application. Predicting outcomes in elderly patients has been historically challenging and POTTER has not yet been tested in this population. Methods All patients ≥65 years who underwent ES in the ACS-NSQIP 2017 database were included. POTTER's performance for 30-day mortality and 18 postoperative complications (eg, respiratory or renal failure) was assessed using c-statistic methodology, with planned sub-analyses for patients 65 to 74, 75 to 84, and 85+ years. Results A total of 29,366 patients were included, with mean age 77, 55.8% females, and 62% who underwent emergency general surgery. POTTER predicted mortality accurately in all patients over 65 (c-statistic 0.80). Its best performance was in patients 65 to 74 years (c-statistic 0.84), and its worst in patients ≥85 years (c-statistic 0.71). POTTER had the best discrimination for predicting septic shock (c-statistic 0.90), respiratory failure requiring mechanical ventilation for ≥48 hours (c-statistic 0.86), and acute renal failure (c-statistic 0.85). Conclusions POTTER is a novel, interpretable, and highly accurate predictor of in-hospital mortality in elderly ES patients up to age 85 years. POTTER could prove useful for bedside counseling and for benchmarking of ES care.

Background The Emergency Surgery Score (ESS) is an accurate mortality risk calculator for emergency general surgery (EGS). We sought to assess whether ESS can accurately predict 30-day morbidity, mortality, and requirement for postoperative Intensive Care Unit (ICU) care in patients with missing data variables. Methods All EGS patients with one or more missing ESS variables in the 2007–2015 ACS-NSQIP database were included. ESS was calculated assuming that a missing variable is normal (i.e. no additional ESS points). The correlation between ESS and morbidity, mortality, and postoperative ICU level of care was assessed using the c-statistics methodology. Results Out of a total of 4,456,809 patients, 359,849 were EGS, and of those 256,278 (71.2%) patients had at least one ESS variable missing. ESS correlated extremely well with mortality (c-statistic = 0.94) and postoperative requirement of ICU care (c-statistic = 0.91) and well with morbidity (c-statistic = 0.77). Conclusion ESS performs well in predicting outcomes in EGS patients even when one or more data elements are missing and remains a useful bedside tool for counseling EGS patients and for benchmarking the quality of EGS care.

We aimed to examine the prevalence of, and describe factors associated with, firearm-related injuries in American households.Using the 2010-2016 ACS-TQIP database, all ICD-9/10 external causes of injury for firearm-related injuries were queried with the place of occurrence designated as "home". Causes of injury were identified as assault, intentional self-injury, and unintentional injury. Univariate then multivariable regression analyses were performed to identify factors associated with each injury type.12,657 firearm-related injuries in households were identified. Of those, 49.9% were victims of assault, 35.7% were intentional self-injury, and 14.4% were unintentional. Mortality was highest among self-inflicted injuries (52.4%), followed by assault (12.9%), and unintentional injuries (5.9%). On multivariable analysis, age45 years, African-American race, and drug use were independently associated with an injury secondary to assault. Age65 years, White race, psychiatric illness, and alcohol use disorder were independently associated with intentional self-injury. White and American-Indian race were independently associated with unintentional injuries.Assault is the most common cause of home-related firearm injury requiring hospitalization, while intentional self-injury is the most lethal.

Background The Emergency Surgery Score (ESS) was recently validated as an accurate mortality risk calculator for emergency general surgery. We sought to prospectively evaluate whether ESS can predict the need for respiratory and/or renal support (RRS) at discharge after emergent laparotomies (EL). Methods This is a post hoc analysis of a 19-center prospective observational study. Between April 2018 and June 2019, all adult patients undergoing EL were enrolled. Preoperative, intraoperative, and postoperative variables were systematically collected. In this analysis, patients were excluded if they died during the index hospitalization, were discharged to hospice, or transferred to other hospitals. A composite variable, the need for RRS, was defined as the need for one or more of the following at hospital discharge: tracheostomy, ventilator dependence, or dialysis. Emergency Surgery Score was calculated for all patients, and the correlation between ESS and RRS was examined using the c-statistics method. Results From a total of 1,649 patients, 1,347 were included. Median age was 60 years, 49.4% were men, and 70.9% were White. The most common diagnoses were hollow viscus organ perforation (28.1%) and small bowel obstruction (24.5%); 87 patients (6.5%) had a need for RRS (4.7% tracheostomy, 2.7% dialysis, and 1.3% ventilator dependence). Emergency Surgery Score predicted the need for RRS in a stepwise fashion; for example, 0.7%, 26.2%, and 85.7% of patients required RRS at an ESS of 2, 12, and 16, respectively. The c-statistics for the need for RRS, the need for tracheostomy, ventilator dependence, or dialysis at discharge were 0.84, 0.82, 0.79, and 0.88, respectively. Conclusion Emergency Surgery Score accurately predicts the need for RRS at discharge in EL patients and could be used for preoperative patient counseling and for quality of care benchmarking. Level of evidence Prognostic and epidemiological, level III.

Most studies on emergency resuscitative thoracotomy (ERT) suffer from either small sample size or unclear inclusion criteria. We sought to assess ERT outcomes and predictors of futility using a nationwide database.Using a novel and comprehensive algorithm of combinations of specific International Classification of Diseases, Ninth Revision and International Classification of Diseases, Tenth Revision procedure codes denoting the multiple steps of an ERT (e.g., thoracotomy, pericardiotomy, cardiac massage) performed within the first 60 min of patient arrival, we identified ERT patients in the 2010-2016 Trauma Quality Improvement Program database. We defined the primary outcome as survival to discharge and the secondary outcomes as hospital length of stay (LOS), intensive care unit LOS, number of complications, and discharge destination. Univariate then backward stepwise multivariable logistic regression analyses were performed to assess independent predictors of mortality. Multiple imputations by chained equations were performed when appropriate, as additional sensitivity analyses.Of 1,403,470 patients, 2012 patients were included. The median age was 32, 84.0% were males, 66.7% had penetrating trauma, the median Injury Severity Score was 26, and 87.5% presented with signs of life (SOL). Of the 1343 patients with penetrating injury, 72.9% had gunshot wounds and 27.1% had stab wounds. The overall survival rate was 19.9%: 26.0% in penetrating trauma (stab wound 45.6% versus gunshot wound 18.7%; P 0.001) and 7.6% in blunt trauma. Independent predictors of mortality were aged 60 y and older (odds ratio, 2.71; 95% confidence interval [95% CI], 1.26-5.82; P = 0.011), blunt trauma (odds ratio, 4.03; 95% CI, 2.72-5.98; P 0.001), prehospital pulse60 bpm (odds ratio, 3.43; 95% CI, 1.73-6.79; P 0.001), emergency department pulse60 bpm (odds ratio, 4.70; 95% CI, 2.47-8.94; P 0.001), and no SOL on emergency department arrival (odds ratio, 3.64; 95% CI, 1.08-12.24; P = 0.037). Blunt trauma was associated with a higher median hospital LOS compared with penetrating trauma (28 d versus 13 d; P 0.001), higher median intensive care unit LOS (19 d versus 6 d; P 0.001), higher median number of complications (2 versus 1; P = 0.006), and more likelihood to be discharged to a rehabilitation facility instead of home (72.6% versus 28.7%; P 0.001). ERT had the highest survival rates in patients younger than 60 y who present with SOL after penetrating trauma. None of the patients with blunt trauma who presented with no SOL survived.The survival rates of patients after ERT in recent years are higher than classically reported, even in the patient with blunt trauma. However, ERT remains futile in patients with a blunt trauma presenting with no SOL.

Background Western Trauma Association guidelines recommend admitting patients 65 years or older with two or more rib fractures diagnosed by chest radiograph to the intensive care unit (ICU). Increased use of computed tomography has led to identification of less severe, "occult" rib fractures. We aimed to evaluate current national trends in disposition of older patients with isolated rib cage fractures and to identify characteristics of patients initially admitted to the ward who failed ward management. Methods A retrospective cohort study of patients 65 years or older with isolated two or more blunt rib cage fractures using the 2010 to 2016 American College of Surgeons Trauma Quality Improvement Program database was performed. Ward failure was defined as patients initially admitted to the ward with subsequent need for unplanned ICU admission or intubation. Multivariable analyses were derived to study the independent predictors of failure of ward management. Propensity score matching sub-analysis was used to assess outcomes in patients admitted to the ward versus ICU. Results There were 5,021 patients included in the analysis. Of these patients, 1,406 (28.0%) were admitted to the ICU. On multivariable analysis, age was an independent predictor of ICU admission. Of the 3,577 patients admitted directly to the ward, 38 (1.1%) patients required unplanned intubation or ICU admission. Independent predictors of failure of ward management included chronic renal failure (odds ratio [OR], 7.20; p ≤ 0.001; 95% confidence interval [CI], 2.50-20.76), traumatic pneumothorax (OR, 8.70; p = 0.008; 95% CI, 1.76-42.93), concurrent sternal fracture (OR, 6.52; p ≤ 0.001; 95% CI, 2.53-16.80), drug use disorder (OR, 6.58; p = 0.032; 95% CI, 1.17-36.96), and emergency department oxygen requirement or oxygen saturation less than 95% (OR, 2.38; p = 0.018; 95% CI, 1.16-4.86). Mortality was higher in patients with delayed ICU care versus patients with successful ward disposition (21.1% vs. 0.8%; p Conclusion Our results suggest that the majority of isolated rib cage fractures in older patients are safely managed on the ward with exceedingly low ward failure rates (1.1%). Patients with failure of ward management have significantly higher mortality, and we have identified predictors of failing the ward. Level of evidence Therapeutic/Care Management, level IV; Prognostic III.

Objective:The International Patterns of Opioid Prescribing study compares postoperative opioid prescribing patterns in the United States (US) versus the rest of the world.Summary of Background Data:The US is in the middle of an unprecedented opioid epidemic. Diversion of unused opioids contributes t

Background A minimally invasive step-up (MIS) approach has been associated with reduced morbidity compared with open surgical necrosectomy (OSN) for treatment of necrotizing pancreatitis. We sought to determine whether transitioning from an OSN to an MIS-based approach would result in reduced mortality. MIS interventions included percutaneous drainage, endoscopic transgastric necrosectomy, video-assisted retroperitoneal debridement, sinus tract endoscopic necrosectomy, or a combination of techniques, with selective use of OSN. Study Design We conducted an observational cohort study with retrospective comparison at a single tertiary referral center (2006 through 2019). Eighty-eight patients were treated with OSN and 91 were treated with an MIS-based approach. Baseline characteristics and clinical outcomes were compared between groups. The primary end point was 90-day mortality. Results There was no difference in baseline characteristics. Ninety-day mortality was 2% with MIS compared with 10% with OSN (p = 0.03). One-year mortality was 3% with MIS compared with 15% with OSN (p = 0.012). The rate of organ failure was lower with MIS (30% vs 45%; p = 0.029), but there was a higher bleeding rate (19% vs 9%; p = 0.064). In the MIS group, 9% were treated with percutaneous drainage, 32% with endoscopic transgastric necrosectomy, 8% with video-assisted retroperitoneal debridement, 15% with sinus tract endoscopic necrosectomy, and 27% with a combination of techniques. Conclusions Adoption of a multidisciplinary MIS-based approach to necrotizing pancreatitis resulted in a 5-fold decrease in mortality compared with OSN.

Background Despite the presence of highly reliable data, studies on packed red blood cells (pRBC):fresh frozen plasma (FFP) ratio suffer from limited sample size and the presence of survivor bias. We sought to study the association between FFP:pRBC and early mortality in the hemorrhaging trauma patient. Study Design This was a retrospective nationwide cohort that included all TQIP participating hospitals (2013 to 2016). We included all trauma patients who were transfused ≥10 pRBCs and ≥1 FFP within 24 hours. We excluded transferred patients and those who died in the emergency department or had missing/inaccurate transfusion data. Patients were assigned to 7 FFP:pRBC cohorts (range 1:1 to 1:6, and 1:6+) only if the ratio was similar at 4 and 24 hours and, to avoid survival bias, were excluded otherwise. Multivariable analyses correcting for all available confounders (age, demographics, comorbidities, vital signs, Injury Severity Score [ISS] and mechanism, procedures performed) were derived to study the independent relationship between FFP:pRBC and 24-hour mortality. Results Of 1,002,595 patients, 4,427 patients were included. Mean age was 41 years, 79% were males, 61% had blunt trauma, and median ISS was 29. Most patients were transfused in a 1:1, 1:2, or 1:3 ratio (31%, 41%, and 11%, respectively); mortality ranged between 28% for 1:1 and 62% for 1:4. In multivariable analyses, the odds of mortality independently and incrementally increased to 1.23 (95% CI 1.02 to 1.48) for a 1:2 ratio, 2.11 (95% CI 1.42 to 3.13) for 1:4, and as high as 4.11 (95% CI 2.31 to 7.31) for 1:5 (all p Conclusions A 1:1 FFP:pRBC ratio is associated with the lowest mortality in the hemorrhaging trauma patient, and mortality increases with decreasing ratios.

Despite significant advances in imaging and endoscopic diagnostic techniques, adequate localization of gastrointestinal bleeding (GIB) can be challenging. Provocative angiography (PROVANGIO) has not been part of the standard diagnostic algorithms yet. We sought to examine the ability of PROVANGIO to identify the bleeding source when conventional radiography fails. Patients undergoing PROVANGIO for GIB during 2008–2014 were retrospectively included. Demographics and periprocedural patient characteristics were recorded. PROVANGIO was performed in a multidisciplinary setting, involving interventional radiology, surgery and anesthesiology teams, ready to intervene in case of uncontrolled bleeding. The procedure included conventional angiography of the celiac, superior and inferior mesenteric arteries (SMA, IMA) followed by a stepwise bleeding provocation with anticoagulating, vasodilating and/or thrombolytic agent administration, combined with angiography. Twenty-three PROVANGIO were performed. Patients were predominantly male (15, 65.2%), and hematochezia was the most common presenting symptom (12, 52.2%). Patients with a positive PROVANGIO had lower Charlson comorbidity index (1 vs. 7, p = 0.009) and were less likely to have a prior history of GIB (14.3% vs. 87.5%, p = 0.001). PROVANGIO localized bleeding in 7 (30%) patients. In 6 out of 7 patients, the bleeding source was identified in the SMA and, in one case, in the IMA distribution. The bleeding was controlled angiographically in four cases, endoscopically in one case and surgically in the remaining two. No complications related to PROVANGIO were detected. In our series, PROVANGIO safely identified the bleeding source, and provided that necessary safeguards are put into place, we recommend incorporating it in the diagnostic algorithms for GIB management.

To decrease hospital length of stay in acute care surgery patients.An observational cohort quality improvement project at a single tertiary referral centre.A multidisciplinary team of physicians, nurses, case managers, and physical and occupational therapists was created to identify patients at risk for prolonged length of stay and implement weekly multidisciplinary rounding, with a systematic method of tracking progress in real time. The main outcome measure was hospital length of stay. The observed/expected ratios for length of stay 2 years before (2012-2014) and after (2014-2016) the intervention were compared.A total of 6,120 patients was analysed. Early identification and action on barriers to discharge created a significant decrease in risk-adjusted acute care surgery patient days per year (96 days) with limited added cost (1-2 hr per week). Patients discharged to home with or without services benefited most.Decreasing length of stay in acute care surgery patients is possible without adding a significant burden to healthcare providers.We describe a comprehensive, multidisciplinary initiative to decrease the length of stay of acute care surgery patients. Institutions can use existing resources in a sustainable manner to create a significant decrease in patient days per year with limited added cost. REGISTRATION: https://osf.io/zfc3t.目的: 缩短急症护理手术病人的住院时间。 设计: 在一个三级转诊中心开展观察性队列质量改进项目。 方法: 组建了一支由医师、护士、病例管理人员、理疗师和职业治疗师组成的多学科团队,以识别有住院时间延长风险的患者,并开展每周多学科凑整,同时采用系统的方法实时跟踪进展。主要评价指标为住院时间。对干预前(2012年-2014年)和干预后(2014年-2016年)两年内住院时间的观察/预期比率进行比较。 结果: 共对6,120名病人进行了分析。早期确定出院阻碍因素并采取行动,使风险调整后的急症护理手术病人每年的住院天数(96天)显著减少,而且增加的成本有限(每周1-2小时)。出院回家的病人无论是否接受医疗服务均受益最多。 结论: 在不显著增加医疗服务提供者负担的情况下,有可能实现缩短急症护理手术病人的住院时间。 影响: 我们描述了一个全面的多学科倡议,以缩短急症护理手术病人的住院时间。机构可凭借可持续的方式利用现有资源,在有限的附加成本下,显著减少病人每年的住院天数。 注册: https://osf.io/zfc3t.

Objective The relationship between total transfusion volume and infection in the trauma patient remains unclear, especially at lower volumes of transfusion. We sought to quantify the cumulative, independent impact of transfusion within 24 hours of admission on the risk of infection in trauma patients. Methods Using the Trauma Quality Improvement Program 2013 to 2016 database, we included all patients who received blood transfusions in the first 4 hours. Patients who were transferred or had incomplete/wrongly coded information on transfusion volume were excluded. Patients were divided into 20 cohorts based on the total blood product volume transfused in the first 24 hours. A composite infection variable (INF) was created, including surgical site infection, ventilator-associated pneumonia, urinary tract infection, central line associated blood stream infection, and sepsis. Univariate and stepwise multivariable logistic regression analyses were performed to study the relationship between blood transfusion and INF, controlling for demographics (e.g., age, sex), comorbidities (e.g., cirrhosis, diabetes, steroid use), severity of injury (e.g., vital signs on arrival, mechanism, Injury Severity Score), and operative and angiographic interventions. Results Of 1,002,595 patients, 37,568 were included. The mean age was 42 ± 18.6 years, 74.6% were males, 68% had blunt trauma, and median Injury Severity Score was 25 [17-34]. Adjusting for all available confounders, odds of INF increased incrementally from 1.00 (reference, 0-2 units) to 1.23 (95% confidence interval, 1.11-1.37) for 4 units transfused to 4.89 (95% confidence interval, 2.72-8.80) for 40 units transfused. Each additional unit increased the odds of INF by 7.6%. Conclusion Transfusion of the bleeding trauma patient was associated with a dose-dependent increased risk of infectious complications. Trauma surgeons and anesthesiologists should resuscitate the trauma patient until prompt hemorrhage control while avoiding overtransfusion. Level of evidence Retrospective cohort study, Therapeutic IV.

This multicenter study aims to describe the injury patterns, emergency management and outcomes of the blast victims, recognize the gaps in hospital disaster preparedness, and identify lessons to be learned.On August 4th, 2020, the city of Beirut, Lebanon suffered the largest urban explosion since Hiroshima and Nagasaki, resulting in hundreds of deaths and thousands of injuries.All injured patients admitted to four of the largest Beirut hospitals within 72 hours of the blast, including those who died on arrival or in the emergency department (ED), were included. Medical records were systematically reviewed for: patient demographics and comorbidities; injury severity and characteristics; prehospital, ED, operative, and inpatient interventions; and outcomes at hospital discharge. Lessons learned are also shared.An estimated total of 1818 patients were included, of which 30 died on arrival or in the ED and 315 were admitted to the hospital. Among admitted patients, the mean age was 44.7 years (range: 1 week-93 years), 44.4% were female, and the median injury severity score (ISS) was 10 (5, 17). ISS was inversely related to the distance from the blast epicenter (r = --0.18, P = 0.035). Most injuries involved the upper extremities (53.7%), face (42.2%), and head (40.3%). Mildly injured (ISS9) patients overwhelmed the ED in the first 2 hours; from hour 2 to hour 8 post-injury, the number of moderately, severely, and profoundly injured patients increased by 127%, 25% and 17%, respectively. A total of 475 operative procedures were performed in 239 patients, most commonly soft tissue debridement or repair (119 patients, 49.8%), limb fracture fixation (107, 44.8%), and tendon repair (56, 23.4%). A total of 11 patients (3.5%) died during the hospitalization, 56 (17.8%) developed at least 1 complication, and 51 (16.2%) were discharged with documented long-term disability. Main lessons learned included: the importance of having key hospital functions (eg, laboratory, operating room) underground; the nonadaptability of electronic medical records to disasters; the ED overwhelming with mild injuries, delay in arrival of the severely injured; and the need for realistic disaster drills.We, therefore, describe the injury patterns, emergency flow and trauma outcome of patients injured in the Beirut port explosion. The clinical and system-level lessons learned can help prepare for the next disaster.

Background Recent small randomized trials suggest that primary anastomosis with a diverting loop ileostomy (PADLI) is a safe alternative to Hartmann's procedure (HP) for patients with acute diverticulitis necessitating emergent operation. We sought to examine the 30-day outcomes of patients undergoing emergent HP vs PADLI. Method Using the American College of Surgeons NSQIP Colectomy Procedure Targeted Database from 2012 to 2016, all patients with acute diverticulitis who underwent emergent HP or PADLI were identified. Multivariable logistic models were constructed to compare the 30-day mortality, overall morbidity, and individual postoperative complications (eg surgical site infection, bleeding, sepsis) of the 2 procedures, controlling for all preoperative variables (eg demographics, comorbidities, laboratory values, illness severity), as well as intraoperative and procedure-specific variables (eg wound classification). Results Of 130,963 patients, 2,729 patients were included. Median age was 64 years, 48.5% were male; the majority of patients underwent HP and only 208 (7.6%) underwent PADLI. Hartmann's procedure patients had more comorbidities (eg COPD: 9.8% vs 4.8%; p = 0.017), were more functionally dependent (6.3% vs 2.4%; p = 0.025), and were sicker (eg septic shock: 11.1% vs 5.3%; p = 0.015) compared with PADLI patients. The mortality rates for HP vs PADLI were 7.6% and 2.9%, respectively (p = 0.011). The morbidity rates were 55.4% and 48.6%, respectively (p = 0.056). In multivariable analyses, compared with HP, PADLI did not result in increased rates of mortality (odds ratio 0.21; 95% CI 0.03 to 1.58; p = 0.129) or morbidity (odds ratio 0.96; 95% CI 0.63 to 1.45; p = 0.834). The odds of most major postoperative complications were also similar for HP and PADLI overall. Conclusions Currently, surgeons perform HP more frequently than PADLI. When controlling for patient population differences, PADLI appears to be at least a safe alternative to HP for select patient populations needing emergent surgical management of acute diverticulitis.

Background Major injury results in an early cascade of immunologic responses that increase susceptibility to infection and multiorgan dysfunction. Detailed immune profiling by mass cytometry has the potential to identify immune signatures that correspond to patient outcomes. Our objective was to determine the prognostic value of immune signatures early after major trauma injury. Methods Trauma patients (n = 17) were prospectively enrolled between September 2018 and December 2019. Serial whole blood samples were obtained from trauma patients (mean Injury Severity Score, 26.2; standard error of the mean, 3.7) at Days 1 and 3 after injury, and from age- and sex-matched uninjured controls using a standardized protocol for fixation, storage, and labeling. Computational analyses including K-nearest neighbor automated clustering of immune cells and Spearman's correlation analysis were used to identify correlations between cell populations, clinical measures, and patient outcomes. Results Analysis revealed nine immune cell clusters that correlated with one or more clinical outcomes. On Days 1 and 3 postinjury, the abundance of immature neutrophil and classical monocytes exhibited a strong positive correlation with increased intensive care unit and hospital length of stay. Conversely, the abundance of CD4 T-cell subsets, namely Th17 cells, is associated with improved patient outcomes including decreased ventilator days (r = -0.76), hospital-acquired pneumonia (r = -0.69), and acute kidney injury (r = -0.73). Conclusion Here, we provide a comprehensive multitime point immunophenotyping analysis of whole blood from patients soon after traumatic injury to determine immune correlates of adverse outcomes. Our findings indicate that alterations in myeloid-origin cell types may contribute to immune dysfunction after injury. Conversely, the presence of effector T cell populations corresponds with decreased hospital length of stay and organ dysfunction. Overall, these data identify novel immune signatures following traumatic injury that support the view that monitoring of immune (sub)-populations may provide clinical decision-making support for at-risk patients early in their hospital course. Level of evidence Prognostic/Epidemiologic, Level IV.

Background Optimal use of interventional procedures and diagnostic tests for patients with suspected choledocholithiasis depends on accurate pretest risk estimation. We sought to define sensitivity/specificity of transaminases in identifying choledocholithiasis and to incorporate them into a biochemical marker composite score that could accurately predict choledocholithiasis. Methods All adult patients who underwent laparoscopic cholecystectomy by our Emergency Surgery Service between 2010 and 2018 were reviewed. Admission total bilirubin (TB), aspartate aminotransferase (AST), alanine aminotransferase (ALT), and alkaline phosphatase (ALP) was captured. Choledocholithiasis was confirmed via intraoperative cholangiogram, endoscopic retrograde cholangiopancreatography, or magnetic resonance cholangiopancreatography. Area under receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) or C-statistic for AST, ALT, ALP, and TB as a measure of detecting choledocholithiasis was calculated. For score development, our database was randomly dichotomized to derivation and validation cohort and a score was derived. The score was validated by calculating its C-statistic. Results 1089 patients were included; 210 (20.3%) had confirmed choledocholithiasis. The AUC was .78 for TB, .77 for ALP and AST, and .76 for ALT. 545 and 544 patients were included in the derivation and the validation cohort, respectively. The elements of the derived score were TB, AST, and ALP. The score ranged from 0 to 4. The AUC was .82 in the derivation and .77 in the validation cohort. The probability of choledocholithiasis increased from 8% to 89% at scores 0 to 4, respectively. Conclusions Aspartate aminotransferase predicted choledocholithiasis adequately and should be featured in choledocholithiasis screening algorithms. We developed a biochemical composite score, shown to be accurate in preoperative choledocholithiasis risk assessment in an emergency surgery setting.

In resource-limited countries, open appendectomy is still performed under general anesthesia (GA) or neuraxial anesthesia (NA). We sought to compare the postoperative outcomes of appendectomy under NA versus GA.We conducted a post hoc analysis of the International Patterns of Opioid Prescribing (iPOP) multicenter study. All patients ≥ 16 years-old who underwent an open appendectomy between October 2016 and March 2017 in one of the 14 participating hospitals were included. Patients were stratified into two groups: NA-defined as spinal or epidural-and GA. All-cause morbidity, hospital length of stay (LOS), and pain severity were assessed using univariate analysis followed by multivariable logistic regression adjusting for the following preoperative characteristics: age, gender, body mass index (BMI), smoking, history of opioid use, emergency status, and country.A total of 655 patients were included, 353 of which were in the NA group and 302 in the GA group. The countries operating under NA were Colombia (39%), Thailand (31%), China (23%), and Brazil (7%). Overall, NA patients were younger (mean age (SD): 34.5 (14.4) vs. 40.7 (17.9), p-value 0.001) and had a lower BMI (mean (SD): 23.5 (3.8) vs. 24.3 (5.2), p-value = 0.040) than GA patients. On multivariable analysis, NA was independently associated with less postoperative complications (OR, 95% CI: 0.30 [0.10-0.94]) and shorter hospital LOS (LOS 3 days, OR, 95% CI: 0.47 [0.32-0.68]) compared to GA. There was no difference in postoperative pain severity between the two techniques.Open appendectomy performed under NA is associated with improved outcomes compared to that performed under GA. Further randomized controlled studies should examine the safety and value of NA in lower abdominal surgery.

Background The Predictive Optimal Trees in Emergency Surgery Risk (POTTER) tool is an artificial intelligence-based calculator for the prediction of 30-day outcomes in patients undergoing emergency operations. In this study, we sought to assess the performance of POTTER in the emergency general surgery (EGS) population in particular. Methods All patients who underwent EGS in the 2017 American College of Surgeons NSQIP database were included. The performance of POTTER in predicting 30-day postoperative mortality, morbidity, and 18 specific complications was assessed using the c-statistic metric. As a subgroup analysis, the performance of POTTER in predicting the outcomes of patients undergoing emergency laparotomy was assessed. Results A total of 59,955 patients were included. Median age was 50 years and 51.3% were women. POTTER predicted mortality (c-statistic = 0.93) and morbidity (c-statistic = 0.83) extremely well. Among individual complications, POTTER had the highest performance in predicting septic shock (c-statistic = 0.93), respiratory failure requiring mechanical ventilation for 48 hours or longer (c-statistic = 0.92), and acute renal failure (c-statistic = 0.92). Among patients undergoing emergency laparotomy, the c-statistic performances of POTTER in predicting mortality and morbidity were 0.86 and 0.77, respectively. Conclusions POTTER is an interpretable, accurate, and user-friendly predictor of 30-day outcomes in patients undergoing EGS. POTTER could prove useful for bedside counseling of patients and their families and for benchmarking of EGS care.

Background Obesity has long been considered a risk factor for postoperative adverse events in surgery. We sought to study the impact of body mass index (BMI) on the clinical outcomes of the high-risk emergency general surgery (EGS) elderly patients. Methods All EGS ≥65 years old patients in the 2007-2016 ACS-NSQIP database, identified using the variables ‘emergency’ and ‘surgspec,’ were included. Patients were classified into five groups: normal weight: BMI Results A total of 78,704 patients were included, of which 26,011 were overweight (33.1%), 13,897 (17.6%) had Class I obesity, 5904 (7.5%) had Class II obesity, and 4490 (5.7%) had Class III obesity. On multivariable analyses, compared to the nonobese, patients who are overweight or with Class I-III obesity paradoxically had a lower risk of mortality, bleeding requiring transfusion, pneumonia, stroke and myocardial infarction (MI). Additionally, the incidence of MI and stroke decreased in a stepwise fashion as BMI progressed from overweight to severely obese (MI: OR: 0.84 [0.73-0.95], OR: 0.73 [0.62-0.86], OR: 0.66 [0.52-0.83], OR: 0.51 [0.38-0.68]; stroke: OR: 0.80 [0.65-0.99], OR: 0.79 [0.62-1.02], OR: 0.71 [0.50-1.00], OR: 0.43 [0.28-0.68]). Conclusion In our study of elderly EGS patients, overweight and obese patients had a lower risk of mortality, bleeding requiring transfusion, pneumonia, reintubation, stroke, and MI. Further studies are needed to confirm and investigate the obesity paradox in this patient population.

Purpose Critically ill patients with Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) have high rates of line thrombosis. Our objective was to examine the safety and efficacy of a low dose heparinized saline (LDHS) arterial line (a-line) patency protocol in this population. Materials and Methods In this observational cohort study, patients ≥18 years with COVID-19 admitted to an ICU at one institution from March 20–May 25, 2020 were divided into two cohorts. Pre-LDHS patients had an episode of a-line thrombosis between March 20–April 19. Post-LDHS patients had an episode of a-line thrombosis between April 20–May 25 and received an LDHS solution (10 units/h) through their a-line pressure bag. Results Forty-one patients (pre-LDHS) and 30 patients (post-LDHS) were identified. Baseline characteristics were similar between groups, including age (61 versus 54 years; p = 0.24), median Sequential Organ Failure Assessment score (6 versus 7; p = 0.67) and systemic anticoagulation (47% versus 32%; p = 0.32). Median duration of a-line patency was significantly longer in post-LDHS versus pre-LDHS patients (8.5 versus 2.9 days; p, Graphical abstract Unlabelled Image, Highlights • Critically ill COVID-19 patients have frequent arterial line (a-line) thrombosis. • A low dose heparinized saline (LDHS) a-line patency protocol was examined. • Two a-line thrombosis cohorts were identified: “post-LDHS” and “pre-LDHS”. • A-line patency was longer in post- vs. pre-LDHS patients (8.5 vs. 2.9 d; p

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Introduction We sought to evaluate whether the Emergency Surgery Score (ESS) can accurately predict outcomes in elderly patients undergoing emergent laparotomy (EL). Methods This is a post-hoc analysis of an EAST multicenter study. Between April 2018 and June 2019, all adult patients undergoing EL in 19 participating hospitals were prospectively enrolled, and ESS was calculated for each patient. Using the c-statistic, the correlation between ESS and mortality, morbidity, and need for ICU admission was assessed in three patient age cohorts (65–74, 75–84, ≥85 years old). Results 715 patients were included, of which 52% were 65–74, 34% were 75–84, and 14% were ≥85 years old; 51% were female, and 77% were white. ESS strongly correlated with postoperative mortality (c-statistic:0.81). Mortality gradually increased from 0% to 20%–60% at ESS of 2, 10 and 16 points, respectively. ESS predicted mortality, morbidity, and need for ICU best in patients 65–74 years old (c-statistic:0.81, 0.75, 0.83 respectively), but its performance significantly decreased in patients ≥85 years (c-statistic:0.72, 0.64, 0.67 respectively). Conclusion ESS is an accurate predictor of outcome in the elderly EL patient 65–85 years old, but its performance decreases for patients ≥85. Consideration should be given to modify ESS to better predict outcomes in the very elderly patient population.

Setting patient and family expectations for postoperative outcomes is an important aspect of care, a cornerstone of which is accurate, personalized, and explainable risk estimation. Modern machine learning offers a plethora of models that can effectively capture the complex, nonlinear contributions of preoperative risk factors to the surgical patient's overall risk. However, most of these models produce risk estimates that are not interpretable, which compromises trust in these systems, renders them unaccountable, and limits their widespread adoption. Recent developments in machine learning have been successful at creating risk calculators that address this gap, producing explainable risk estimates without compromising accuracy. In this work, we describe how the state of the art in postoperative risk estimation addresses the shortcomings of older methods, and how they have been applied in a clinical setting. We conclude with a discussion of the potential of machine learning models to be systematically integrated in health care more broadly and future prospects beyond passive risk prediction.

BACKGROUND The genomic landscape of gallbladder disease remains poorly understood. We sought to examine the association between genetic variants and the development of cholecystitis. METHODS The Biobank of a large multi-institutional health care system was used. All patients with cholecystitis were identified using International Statistical Classification of Diseases, 10th Revision, codes and genotyped across six batches. To control for population stratification, data were restricted to that from individuals of European genomic ancestry using a multidimensional scaling approach. The association between single nucleotide polymorphisms and cholecystitis was evaluated with a mixed linear model-based analysis, controlling for age, sex, and obesity. The threshold for significance was set at 5 × 10. RESULTS Of 24,635 patients (mean ± SD age, 60.1 ± 16.7 years; 13,022 females [52.9%]), 900 had cholecystitis (mean ± SD age, 65.4 ± 14.3 years; 496 females [55.1%]). After meta-analysis, three single nucleotide polymorphisms on chromosome 5p15 exceeded the threshold for significance (p < 5 × 10). The phenotypic variance of cholecystitis explained by genetics and controlling for sex and obesity was estimated to be 17.9%. CONCLUSION Using a multi-institutional genomic Biobank, we report that a region on chromosome 5p15 is associated with the development of cholecystitis that can be used to identify patients at risk. LEVEL OF EVIDENCE Prognostic and epidemiological, Level III.

Laparoscopic cholecystectomy (LC) has a wide range of technical difficulty. Preoperative risk stratification is essential for adequate planning and patient counseling. We hypothesized that gallbladder wall thickness (GWT) is more objective marker than symptom duration in predicting complexity, as determined by operative time (OT), intraoperative events (IE), and postoperative complications.All adult patients who underwent LC during 2010-2018 were included. GWT, measured on imaging and on the histopathologic exam, was divided into three groups:3 mm (normal), 3-7 mm and7 mm. Univariate and multivariable analyses were performed to determine the association between GWT and 1) operative time, 2) the incidence of IE and 3) postoperative outcomes.A total of 1089 patients, subjects to LC, were included in the study. GWT was positively correlated with median OT (p 0.001), the incidence of IE (p 0.001) and median length of hospital stay (p 0.001). GWT independently predicted IE (OR = 2.1 95% CI: 1.3-3.4) and outperformed symptom duration, which was not significantly associated with any of the outcomes (p = 0.7).GWT independently predicted IE and may serve as an objective marker of LC complexity.

The impact of immunosuppression on the outcomes of emergent surgery remains poorly described. We aimed to quantify the impact of chronic immunosuppression on outcomes of patients undergoing emergent colectomy (EC). The Colectomy-Targeted ACS-NSQIP database 2012–2016 was queried for patients who underwent colectomy for an emergent indication. As per NSQIP, chronic immunosuppression was defined as the use of corticosteroid or immunosuppressant medication within the prior 30 days. Patients undergoing EC for any indication were divided into two groups: immunosuppressant use (IMS) and no immunosuppressant use (NIS). Patients were propensity-score-matched on demographics, comorbidities, preoperative laboratory values, and operative variables in a 1:1 ratio to control for confounding factors. The primary outcome was 30-day mortality. Secondary outcomes included overall 30-day morbidity, individual postoperative complications (e.g., wound dehiscence, anastomotic leak, and sepsis), and hospital length of stay. Out of a total of 130,963 patients, 17,707 patients underwent an EC, of which 15,422 were NIS and 2285 were IMS. Totally, 2882 patients were matched (1441 NIS; 1441 IMS). The median age was 66 [IQR 56–76]; 56.8% were female; patients more frequently underwent a diversion procedure rather than primary anastomosis (68.4% vs 31.6%). Overall, as compared to NIS, IMS patients had higher 30-day mortality (21.4% vs 18.5%, p = 0.045) and overall morbidity (79.7% vs 75.7%, p = 0.011). Particularly, IMS patients had increased rates of unplanned intubations (11.5% vs 7.9%, p = 0.001), wound dehiscence (5.7% vs 3.5%, p = 0.006), progressive renal insufficiency 2.2% vs 1.2%, p = 0.042), pneumonia (12.6% vs 10.0%, p = 0.029), and longer median hospital length of stay [12.0 (8.0–21.0) vs 11.0 (7.0–19.0), p

Patients with mild traumatic brain injury (mTBI) are frequently transferred to level 1 trauma centers (L1TC) if they have minor findings on a computerized tomographic scan of the head due to the absence of continuous neurosurgical coverage in community hospitals (CH). We hypothesized that such patients can be safely managed at community hospitals with a qualified Trauma team.This is a multicentered Retrospective Cohort Study. Patients with mild Traumatic Brain Injury (defined as Glasgow Coma Scale [GCS] 13-15 at presentation) and with minor findings on head Computerized Tomography (CT) presenting at a L1TC or 4 Community Hospitals between March 1st, 2012 and February 28th, 2014 were included. All these community hospitals are Level III Trauma center with a well-organized trauma team. Minor CT findings were defined as 1) epidural hematoma2 mm; 2) subarachnoid hemorrhage2 mm; 3) subdural hematoma4 mm; 4) intraparenchymal hemorrhage5 mm; 5) minor pneumocephalus; or 6) linear or minimally depressed skull fracture. Our primary end point was the need for TBI specific interventions in 3 groups of patients: 1) direct admission to the L1TC (L1TC group), 2) those admitted at one of the 4 CH (CH group), and 3) those transferred from CH to L1TC (TRANSFER group). TBI-specific interventions were defined as intracranial pressure monitor (ICP) placement, hyperosmolar therapy, or neurosurgical operation. Our secondary aim was to demonstrate that these patients can be safely managed in Community Hospitals with qualified Trauma teams. We also sought to identify the clinical outcomes in these three groups of patients - in terms of mortality and complications.A total of 191 patients were included - 39 CH, 64 L1TC and 88 TRANSFER. There was no difference among the groups in terms of TBI-specific interventions: one TRANSFER, four L1TC, and no CH patients required hyperosmolar therapy (p = 0.277). None of the patients required placement of an intracranial pressure monitoring device (ICP) or a neurosurgical operation and complications and mortality rates were similar among the groups.Patients with mild TBI and minor findings on head CT can be safely managed at CH with qualified Trauma Teams.Therapeutic/Care Management Study, Level IVhbv.