Typical subsurface investigation tools used on Earth are not applicable for subsurface exploration of the Moon and other extraterrestrial bodies due to payload limitations in space missions. Instead, light and compact subsonic projectile probes can be considered as an alternative subsurface investigation tool in such exploratory missions to overcome a host of challenges. Such probes can be launched from a lunar orbiter or lander to the surface of the Moon to provide the initial effective penetration from the impact. Here, we develop a model based on the spherical cavity expansion theory to predict the deceleration rate and final penetration depth of a rigid projectile probe into geological targets under the perpendicular subsonic impact. Two stress fields are assumed to propagate in the medium, plastic (near field) and elastic (far field), upon the impact. The stresses at the cavity wall are obtained by combining the Mohr–Coulomb failure criterion for the target failure (plastic region) considering two different assumptions for plastic wave propagation. Two field experiments are used to compare and assess the robustness of the proposed solutions in the subsonic range. Base on the simulation results and the experiments, it is concluded that the cavity expansion model considering the locked hydrostat assumption, with the modification here introduced for the volumetric strain, can provide us with a reasonable prediction of the projectile penetration, final penetration depth and the stresses on the probe. Thus, our proposed solution can be used as a benchmark for sophisticated and computationally-expensive numerical calculations.