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Despite striking global change, management to ensure healthy landscapes and sustained natural resources has tended to set objectives on the basis of the historical range of variability in stationary ecosystems. Many social–ecological systems are moving into novel conditions that can result in ecological transformation. We present four foundations to enable a transition to future-oriented conservation and management that increases capacity to manage change. The foundations are to identify plausible social–ecological trajectories, to apply upstream and deliberate engagement and decision-making with stakeholders, to formulate management pathways to desired futures, and to consider a portfolio approach to manage risk and account for multiple preferences across space and time. We use the Kenai National Wildlife Refuge in Alaska as a case study to illustrate how the four foundations address common land management challenges for navigating transformation and deciding when, where, and how to resist, accept, or direct social–ecological change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aleutian Tern Onychoprion aleuticus numbers in Alaska appear to be in decline; however, colonies are difficult to count for the purposes of monitoring due to their co-occurrence with Arctic Terns Sterna paradisaea, low nesting densities, high variability in attendance, sensitivity to human disturbance, and remote terrain. We paired visual observations with unmanned aerial systems (UASs) to test the feasibility of using this technology to survey a small colony of nesting Arctic and Aleutian terns in southcentral Alaska. We used counts of terns in the air and nest attendance to test for disturbance from UAS flights. We conducted 11 UAS flights over seven days at altitudes ranging from 15-30 m and located 23 nests in the 4.1 ha (0.041 km²) colony site (5.6 nests ha-1) by systematically searching the orthomosaics. We were most likely to distinguish tern species in the 18-m and 15-m altitude photos; the white forehead was most visible in side angle rather than top-down. Nest attendance and the number of aerial birds were not influenced by the UAS in this colony, which experiences high Larus gull activity. Aleutian Terns arrived on 19 May and were attending nests by 02 June; nest attendance declined throughout June. We believe the best approximation of total nesting pairs will be achieved by counting nests 7-10 d after first initiation. In mixed species colonies, we recommend that UASs fly in a 'lawn mower' pattern with overlap to maximize side angle images and aim for an image resolution of < 4 mm (which was achieved by 15-m altitude flights with our camera setup). In single species colonies, 30 m is sufficient and can be achieved more efficiently. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The golden-cheeked warbler (Dendroica chrysoparia) is a federally listed endangered species with an extremely limited breeding range (Edwards Plateau, Tex., USA) and specific habitat requirements. Although localized habitat composition and structure correlate well with golden-cheeked warbler occurrence and nest location, the effects of landscape composition and structure are largely untested. TO investigate landscape-scale influences on habitat occupancy, we surveyed 202 point locations for golden-cheeked warbler presence. We used logistic regression to compare the relative influence of 4 landscape-scale variables (largest patch index, percent of the landscape in woodland, mean-nearest neighbor, and edge density) measured at 4 spatial scales (3 ha, 12 ha, 50 ha, and 200 ha) in predicting occurrence. The amount of mature juniper-oak (Juniperus ashei and Quercus spp.) woodland in the landscape was the single most important variable across spatial scales and average values of woodland cover remained stable across scales. Golden cheeked warblers occurred in a local habitat only when landscape composition exceeded 40% woodland and the likelihood of occurrence was greater than 0.5 only when landscape composition exceeded 80% woodland, By contrast, common measures of habitat fragmentation, including edge density and mean-nearest neighbor, were poor predictors of species occurrence across all spatial scales. Our results suggest that golden-cheeked warblers may be less sensitive to fragmentation then they are to overall habitat loss, which may be due to natural habitat heterogeneity related to the variable terrain. Our results do not preclude a relationship between habitat fragmentation and overall habitat quality as measured by nesting success, survival, and recruitment. While our results hold promise for increasing the reliability of predicting species occurrence, future studies are needed to determine the influence of landscape composition and structure on the ultimate measures of habitat quality. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We investigated the genetic makeup of Lutz spruce, a natural hybrid between white and Sitka spruce on the Kenai Peninsula, Alaska. Microsatellites indicate 72% of individuals sampled had predominantly white spruce ancestry, whereas 14% had predominantly Sitka spruce ancestry; some individuals classified as white spruce had Sitka spruce plastid genotypes. As Picea mitochondria are maternally inherited and plastids are paternally inherited, it appears that white spruce was the ancestral seed parent of nearly all spruce on the western peninsula, whereas Sitka spruce alleles originated from pollen. Pollen records show that white spruce colonized the western peninsula ∼8500 YBP from glacial refugium, whereas Sitka spruce arrived on the eastern peninsula ∼4000 YBP after migrating up the Pacific coast. Our data suggest that Sitka spruce colonization west of the Kenai Mountains may have occurred not via seed dispersal but by long distance transport of wind-borne pollen and subsequent hybridization with established white spruce populations. Hybridization was an important mechanism that allowed Sitka spruce to expand the leading edge of its range in response to historical climate change. As the climate continues to warm, climate envelope modeling suggests Lutz spruce may ultimately displace white spruce on the western peninsula even as Sitka spruce is constrained to the eastern peninsula where it will continue to hybridize. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Earth is experiencing widespread ecological transformation in terrestrial, freshwater, and marine ecosystems that is attributable to directional environmental changes, especially intensifying climate change. To better steward ecosystems facing unprecedented and lasting change, a new management paradigm is forming, supported by a decision-oriented framework that presents three distinct management choices: resist, accept, or direct the ecological trajectory. To make these choices strategically, managers seek to understand the nature of the transformation that could occur if change is accepted while identifying opportunities to intervene to resist or direct change. In this article, we seek to inspire a research agenda for transformation science that is focused on ecological and social science and based on five central questions that align with the resist–accept–direct (RAD) framework. Development of transformation science is needed to apply the RAD framework and support natural resource management and conservation on our rapidly changing planet. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Intensifying global change is propelling many ecosystems toward irreversible transformations. Natural resource managers face the complex task of conserving these important resources under unprecedented conditions and expanding uncertainty. As once familiar ecological conditions disappear, traditional management approaches that assume the future will reflect the past are becoming increasingly untenable. In the present article, we place adaptive management within the resist–accept–direct (RAD) framework to assist informed risk taking for transforming ecosystems. This approach empowers managers to use familiar techniques associated with adaptive management in the unfamiliar territory of ecosystem transformation. By providing a common lexicon, it gives decision makers agency to revisit objectives, consider new system trajectories, and discuss RAD strategies in relation to current system state and direction of change. Operationalizing RAD adaptive management requires periodic review and update of management actions and objectives; monitoring, experimentation, and pilot studies; and bet hedging to better identify and tolerate associated risks. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Natural resource managers worldwide face a growing challenge: Intensifying global change increasingly propels ecosystems toward irreversible ecological transformations. This nonstationarity challenges traditional conservation goals and human well-being. It also confounds a longstanding management paradigm that assumes a future that reflects the past. As once-familiar ecological conditions disappear, managers need a new approach to guide decision-making. The resist–accept–direct (RAD) framework, designed for and by managers, identifies the options managers have for responding and helps them make informed, purposeful, and strategic choices in this context. Moving beyond the diversity and complexity of myriad emerging frameworks, RAD is a simple, flexible, decision-making tool that encompasses the entire decision space for stewarding transforming ecosystems. Through shared application of a common approach, the RAD framework can help the wider natural resource management and research community build the robust, shared habits of mind necessary for a new, twenty-first-century natural resource management paradigm. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Spruce beetle-induced (Dendroctonus rufipennis (Kirby)) mortality on the Kenai Peninsula has been hypothesized by local ecologists to result in the conversion of forest to grassland and subsequent increased fire danger. This hypothesis stands in contrast to empirical studies in the continental US which suggested that beetle mortality has only a negligible effect on fire danger. In response, we conducted a study using Landsat data and modeling techniques to map land cover change in the Kenai Peninsula and to integrate change maps with other geospatial data to predictively map fire danger for the same region. We collected Landsat imagery to map land cover change at roughly five-year intervals following a severe, mid-1990s beetle infestation to the present. Land cover classification was performed at each time step and used to quantify grassland encroachment patterns over time. The maps of land cover change along with digital elevation models (DEMs), temperature, and historical fire data were used to map and assess wildfire danger across the study area. Results indicate the highest wildfire danger tended to occur in herbaceous and black spruce land cover types, suggesting that the relationship between spruce beetle damage and wildfire danger in costal Alaskan forested ecosystems differs from the relationship between the two in the forests of the coterminous United States. These change detection analyses and fire danger predictions provide the Kenai National Wildlife Refuge (KENWR) ecologists and other forest managers a better understanding of the extent and magnitude of grassland conversion and subsequent change in fire danger following the 1990s spruce beetle outbreak. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]