1. A Binary Logistic Regression Model as a Tool to Predict Craft Beer Susceptibility to Microbial Spoilage
- Author
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Magaly Rodriguez-Saavedra, M. Victoria Moreno-Arribas, Karla Pérez-Revelo, Dolores González de Llano, Antonio Valero, Ministerio de Ciencia, Innovación y Universidades (España), Agencia Estatal de Investigación (España), European Commission, and Comunidad de Madrid
- Subjects
Health (social science) ,Food spoilage ,education ,growth/no growth ,antimicrobial hurdles ,TP1-1185 ,Plant Science ,Logistic regression ,Health Professions (miscellaneous) ,Microbiology ,Article ,spoilage microorganisms ,beer intrinsic factors ,model development ,Antimicrobial hurdles ,Alcohol content ,Model development ,Food science ,Mathematics ,Growth/no growth ,Chemical technology ,digestive, oral, and skin physiology ,External validation ,food and beverages ,susceptibility prediction ,Susceptibility prediction ,Spoilage microorganisms ,human activities ,Beer intrinsic factors ,Food Science - Abstract
This article belongs to the Special Issue Microbiological Risk Assessment in Foods., Beer spoilage caused by microorganisms, which is a major concern for brewers, produces undesirable aromas and flavors in the final product and substantial financial losses. To address this problem, brewers need easy-to-apply tools that inform them of beer susceptibility to the microbial spoilage. In this study, a growth/no growth (G/NG) binary logistic regression model to predict this susceptibility was developed. Values of beer physicochemical parameters such as pH, alcohol content (% ABV), bitterness units (IBU), and yeast-fermentable extract (% YFE) obtained from the analysis of twenty commercially available craft beers were used to prepare 22 adjusted beers at different levels of each parameter studied. These preparations were assigned as a first group of samples, while 17 commercially available beers samples as a second group. The results of G/NG from both groups, after artificially inoculating with one wild yeast and different lactic acid bacteria (LAB) previously adapted to grow in a beer-type beverage, were used to design the model. The developed G/NG model correctly classified 276 of 331 analyzed cases and its predictive ability was 100% in external validation. This G/NG model has good sensitivity and goodness of fit (87% and 83.4%, respectively) and provides the potential to predict craft beer susceptibility to microbial spoilage., This study was supported by grants PID2019-108851RB-C21 (Spanish Ministry of Science and Innovation), and ALIBIRD-CM 2020 P2018/BAA-4343 (Comunidad de Madrid).
- Published
- 2021
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