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Unmanned Underwater Vehicles (UUVs) accomplish a wide spectrum of missions ranging from generic to extremely specific. Although not all UUVs can accomplish all missions, there is significant replication of the requirements and the systems across the family of UUVs. The design process for UUVs balances operational requirements, design feasibility, expected performance, schedule, budget, and ultimate system and life-cycle costs. The U.S. Department of Defense does not have an established process for developing UUV Systems Engineering (SE) requirements. This results in duplicative development efforts adding unnecessary costs to UUV programs. This paper investigates the SE requirements and interfaces across various UUV mission spaces to establish complexity and reuse weights. A Constructive SE Cost Model (COSYSMO) is applied to determine the cost advantage to reuse SE requirements for UUV assets across different mission spaces to determine an overall SE effort. Requirements from the baseline mission are then compared with requirements from eight other missions, and the efforts compared to determine a return on investment (ROI) for using previous missions as a baseline. Utilizing the resulting UUV requirement cost versus ROI can serve as a starting point for future UUV program concept design.

The defense sector often develops systems to operate for at least 15 years, which can reach 40 or even 50 years. Those systems tend to be cheaper, more rapidly developed, and reliable when developed on product lines (PL). Product line architecture surges with potential to improve the acquisition process, resulting in a more rapid insertion of cost-effective warfighting capabilities. This thesis investigates the impact of the PL approach by analyzing the future generation of mine countermeasure (MCM) unmanned underwater vehicle (UUV) architecture alternatives, employing a detailed reuse model based on the COPLIMO framework. The research integrates parametric cost modeling with model-based systems engineering (MBSE), feeding the existing baseline knowledge regarding PL architecture. Furthermore, this can improve systems acquisition processes, deliver more agile capability, and reduce total life cycle costs (LCC). The integration of models highlights significant differences among the architectural variations considered early in the acquisition process before substantial financial commitments. Early decisions determine most of the total LCC and establish a baseline for long-term system performance. Hence, the choice of favorable design alternatives is crucial to program success. The results demonstrate that up-front investments in product lines generate a significant return on investment (ROI)., Capitao-Tenente, Brazilian Navy, Approved for public release. Distribution is unlimited.

Acquisition initiatives within the Department of Defense (DOD) are becoming increasingly reliant on software. While the DOD has ample experience in estimating costs of hardware acquisition, expertise in estimating software acquisition costs is lacking. The objective of this capstone project is to summarize the current software cost estimating methods, analyze existing software cost estimating models, and suggest areas and methods for improvement. To accomplish this, surveys were conducted to gather program cost data, which was run through existing cost estimating models. From here, the outputs were compared to actual program costs. This established a baseline for the effectiveness of existing methods and guided suggestions for areas of improvement. The Software Resource Data Reports (SRDR) data used seemed to have spurious data reporting from at least one source, and the base cost estimation models were not found to be sufficiently accurate in our study. The capstone finds that calibrating the cost models to the data available improved those models dramatically. In all, the capstone recommends performing data realism checks upon SRDR submissions to ensure data accuracy and calibrating cost models for each contractor with the available data before using them to estimate DOD Acquisition costs., Civilian, Department of the Army, Civilian, Department of the Army, Civilian, Department of the Army, Civilian, Department of the Army, Approved for public release. Distribution is unlimited.

The DoD’s new software acquisition pathway prioritizes speed of delivery, advocating agile software processes. Estimating the cost and schedule of agile software projects is critical at an early phase to establish baseline budgets and to select competitive bidders. The challenge is that common ag-ile sizing measures such as story points and user stories are not practical for early estimation as these are often reported after contract award in DoD. This study provides a set of parametric effort and schedule estimation models for agile projects using a sizing measure that is available before proposal evaluation based on data from 36 DoD agile projects. The results suggest that initial software requirements, defined as the sum of functions and external interfaces, is an effective sizing measure for early estimation of effort and schedule of agile projects. The models’ accuracy improves when application domain groups and peak staff are added as inputs.

A Model-Based Systems Engineering (MBSE) approach has been developed at the Naval Postgraduate School that integrates parametric cost and product modeling methods for economic trade-off analysis of system product lines. The research assesses the economic consequences of DoD product line options and has been refining a framework for others to use and adapt. This report provides details of the methodology and its application to several empirical case studies. The modeling framework includes a reference architecture and cost model for a general combat system product line that is extensible to other DoD and government domains. It has been applied to assess the economics of Navy combat system product line architecture approaches in coordinated case studies. The case studies were performed for a three-tier cruise missile system, the Aegis ship software product line, and an Anti-Submarine Warfare (ASW) cross-domain product line architecture for air, surface, and sub-surface applications. An overall business case analysis for DoD product line practices was performed synthesizing the case studies with recommendations generated.

Estimating the cost and schedule of agile software projects is critical at an early phase to establish baseline budgets and schedules for the selection of competitive bidders. The challenge is that common agile sizing measures such as story points and user stories are not practical for early estimation as these are often reported after contract award in DoD. This study provides a set of effort and schedule estimation models for agile projects using a sizing measure that is available before proposal evaluation based on data from 36 DoD agile projects. The results suggest that initial software requirements, defined as the sum of functions and external interfaces, is an effective sizing measure for early estimation of effort and schedule of agile projects. The models’ accuracy improves when application domain groups and peak staff are added as inputs.

This dissertation presents a methodology to derive inherent behavior patterns in system-of-systems architectures. When considering the possibility of not only the intended behaviors of a system but also the alternative, unintended behaviors of the system, the developer needs to evaluate hundreds of possible outcomes, even for a simple model. This set of outcomes grows to tens of thousands for a reasonably complex model, driving the need for some means of systematic analysis that ensures the evaluation of all possibilities. This dissertation outlines a methodology that enables the developer to describe the behaviors of a particular system; define the interaction of the system with other systems, users, and the environment; add constraints to the model; derive patterns from the set of possible outcomes; analyze and interpret the results; and re-use the model for other problems of interest. The methodology employs the Monterey Phoenix behavior modeling concepts and tools as a light-weight, formal method. The dissertation details a cross-domain example that demonstrates the methodology and outlines multiple applications, serving as verification of the approach., http://archive.org/details/identificationof1094564902, Civilian, Department of the Navy, Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited.

Navy combat systems are currently ship class dependent and are acquired as stovepipes. There exist economic consequences to this approach considering various components on the combat system types share commonality. This part of the research will address cross-domain applicability of the antisubmarine warfare (ASW) combat system. This research will include the product line potential for ASW systems to include air, surface, and subsurface applications—light airborne multipurpose system (LAMPS) MK III (SH-60 Helicopters), AN/BYG-1 (Virginia class), SQQ-89 (FFG 7, DDG 51, and CG 47 class). Commonality is assessed for ASW-capable systems to determine the product line approach suitable for the reduction of cost, increase in mission effectiveness, and generation of rapidly deployable combat systems. The product line investigation encompasses air, surface, and subsurface systems for applicability across the domain to establish variations points based on referenced architecture. Product line models provide analysis of the economic consequences of alternative system acquisition approaches. Constructive Product Line Investment Models (COPLIMO) are utilized, with a three-pronged strategy, for system and software to explore numerous architectural possibilities for the derived combat systems. High return on investment were yielded for an adapted ASW system for “most likely” scenarios for both system and software.

Navy combat systems are ship class dependent and, until recently, were acquired as stovepipes. The disaggregated stovepipe acquisition method leads to suboptimal designs and exorbitant costs throughout the system’s lifecycle. A product line approach could reduce costs, increase mission effectiveness, and enable more rapid deployment across the Navy and rest of the Department of Defense. Existing software product line cost models are oversimplified to model per-product characteristics and savings within a product line across the lifecycle of a system. Improving these existing cost models will better support decision making for future acquisitions. By applying existing research and leveraging the Constructive Product Line Investment Model, this work estimates product line savings and return on investment for the AEGIS combat system product. The AEGIS common source library is a proven standard for an evolving product line architecture to meet Navy combat systems requirements and has proven cost savings since its inception. This research provides a methodology and cost model framework for product line decisions while extending it for the AEGIS combat system case study., http://archive.org/details/navalcombatsyste1094562854, Lieutenant, United States Navy, Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited.

The purpose of this thesis is to understand disparate organizational standard operating procedures (SOPs) covering agile software development and supporting functions, including business and technical feasibility analysis, contracts development, and personnel assessment. On the basis of SOP analysis, we developed a discrete-event software process simulation model of the architecture using Lifecycle Modeling Language (LML) action diagrams with the Model-Based Systems Engineering tool Innoslate. The action diagrams unify the SOPs to support both process architecture development and the ability to simulate actions independently or as a whole. The architecture illustrates that, in addition to the core function of software design and development, there are supporting functions that are necessary to successfully execute agile software development. The simulation model also serves as an accurate cost estimator for sprints. Historical data was available to calibrate model parameters for activity effort, staffing, and labor rates. The results of Monte Carlo simulations to forecast effort and cost for software sprints showed a high degree of accuracy against actuals. It is a viable alternative to other estimation methods and also provides risk assessment. The process model can be further calibrated and dynamically extended to support agile software development.

Current U.S. Navy combat system suites are ship class dependent. There are a variety of configurations that include sensors, weapons, and system interfaces to accomplish similar goals. The Navy Surface Warfare Center recommends developing combat system architectures utilizing reusable product line components. This recommendation is accomplished by applying model-based systems engineering and product line engineering to develop a combat system architecture with planned reuse of system components. Current U.S. Navy and European combat systems are reviewed as an introduction to the architecture and components of operational systems. Conducting functional decomposition and identifying commonalities of the reviewed combat systems allow for development of a system architecture following the Hatley-Pirbhai modeling framework. The system architecture helps identify system variability, which, in turn, is used to generate orthogonal variability models that are used to design the combat system product line. A product line orthogonal variability model features packaged variants for three proposed combat system tiers representing scalable capabilities. The benefits of a product line engineering approach are validated by a system-level Constructive Product Line Investment Model. This research provides a methodology and cost modeling tool for future combat system design as well as background for further research in combat system product line engineering.

Project Summary: Software effort estimates are necessary and critical at an early phase for decision makers to establish initial budgets, and in a government context to select the most competitive bidder for a contract. The challenge is that estimated software requirements is the only size information available at this stage, compounded with the newly increasing adoption of agile processes in the United States (U.S.) Department of Defense (DoD). The objectives are to improve cost estimation by investigating available sizing measures, and providing practical effort estimation models for agile software development projects during the contract bidding phase or earlier. This analysis explores the effects of independent variables for product size, peak staff, and domain on effort. The empirical data for model calibration is from 20 industrial projects completed recently for the US DoD, among a larger dataset of recent projects using other lifecycle processes. Statistical results showed that initial software requirements is a valid size metric for estimating agile software development effort. Prediction accuracy improves when peak staff and domain are added as inputs to the cost models. It is concluded that these models may be used for estimates of agile projects, and evaluating software development contract cost proposals with inputs available during the bidding phase or earlier.

Background: Software effort estimates are necessary and critical at an early phase for decision makers to establish initial budgets, and in a government context to select the most competitive bidder for a contract. The challenge is that estimated software requirements is the only size information available at this stage, compounded with the newly increasing adoption of agile processes in the US DoD. Aims: The objectives are to improve cost estimation by investigating available sizing measures, and providing practical effort estimation models for agile software development projects during the contract bidding phase or earlier. Method: The analysis explores the effects of independent variables for product size, peak staff, and domain on effort. The empirical data for model calibration is from 20 industrial projects completed recently for the US DoD, among a larger dataset of recent projects using other lifecycle processes. Results: Statistical results showed that initial software requirements is a valid size metric for estimating agile software development effort. Prediction accuracy improves when peak staff and domain are added as inputs to the cost models. Conclusion: These models may be used for estimates of agile projects, and evaluating software development contract cost proposals with inputs available during the bidding phase or earlier.

Modeling and simulation can help improve lawmaking processes. System dynamics is a simulation methodology for modeling continuous systems that provides a rich and integrative framework for investigating lawmaking process phenomena and inter-relationships from a holistic perspective. Structures for modeling these processes are provided as reusable building blocks. These structures and their behaviors are process patterns that frequently occur. Examples are shown assembling these recurring structures into larger models demonstrating behavior patterns of lawmaking processes including feedback loops. The behaviors are visualized as process trends over time. This paper overviews: 1) basic system dynamics elements and their applied instances in lawmaking, 2) generic flow processes which are small microstructures comprised of a few elements serving as modeling molecules with characteristic behaviors, 3) infrastructures composed of several microstructures producing more complex behaviors, 4) flow chains which are infrastructures consisting of a sequence of levels and rates (stocks and flows) that are model portion backbones, and 5) introductory examples of lawmaking process structures. Even small system dynamics models have been shown useful for understanding complex public policy issues, and thus well suited to assess specific laws and/or aspects of local, national and international lawmaking processes. The structures and applied examples are provided as open source models for the community to incorporate, adapt and apply for lawmaking.

This research explores the integration of the Constructive Systems Engineering Cost Model (COSYSMO) into early modeling efforts for the Department of Defense (DOD). Initial acquisition decisions influence the analysis and design of systems engineers, who face an increasingly complex and dynamic environment with significant impact on system life-cycle decisions and cost. This work utilizes a model-based systems engineering (MBSE) approach and the systems modeling language (SysML) to highlight the sharing of system model data with COSYSMO to provide an estimate of systems engineering costs. The document highlights the proposed methods compliance to cost estimation techniques, adherence and support to pre-Milestone A requirements of the DOD acquisitions process, and links to the Department of Defense Architectural Framework (DODAF). Application and documentation of the author's methods include a commonly used humanitarian aid effort scenario that incorporates traditional systems functional analysis of a single water distiller. The work's results demonstrate an ability for automated and semi-automated integration with COSYSMO from the system model in a web-based tool, conclude with challenges associated with external cost model integration, and suggest future areas of continued refinement and extensions. A starting point for an ensemble of models to enhance DOD cost estimation practices results from the techniques.