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Addressing climate change stands out as a pivotal challenge of the twenty-first century, demanding the development of a robust environmental policy framework. This study explores the relationship between environmental policy and the default risk associated with financial institutions in European Union nations from 2006 to 2022. We show that the loan-to-deposit ratio, an indicator of bank default risk, is negatively associated with the climate change performance index (CCPI) and macroeconomic factors. Companies with higher CO2 emissions were associated with increased credit risk following the Paris Agreement event, due to potential future climate regulatory changes. Moreover, the climate change performance has a significant adverse impact on variations in credit risk variations under this event. These results are due to climate regulations, which become applicable and effective over time. Overall, these findings indicate that climate change policy affects the banks’ credit risk and that banks with higher default risk are negatively correlated with this index. This highlights the crucial role that financial regulators and policymakers have in directing financial institutions toward the adoption of risk assessment practices aimed at ensuring financial stability and promoting environmentally sustainable practices. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The strategy of going public plays a relevant role in business growth. Macroeconomic conditions are decisive for initial public offerings (IPOs). In this study, we analyzed the impact of macroeconomic factors on IPOs in the Brazilian stock market, considering the period from 2007 to 2018. We used autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) models to analyze the existence of cointegration between the variables and the long-run effects. The estimated models considered the effects on the proceeds or the number of IPO, which can be related to interest rates, stock market returns, economic activity, and economic uncertainty. Our results indicate that economic activity and uncertainty have long-run effects on both the proceeds and the number of IPOs. There is also evidence that the interest rate has a long-run relationship with the IPO proceeds. In addition, we tested the causal relationships between macroeconomic factors and the IPO variables. For this purpose, we adopted a Granger causality test. We highlight that uncertainty precedes the IPO proceeds. Expectations about macroeconomic conditions are relevant for the decision to go public. Our evidence can provide guidance for stakeholders and policymakers. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Financial institutions are crucial players in the Bhutanese economy. However, little to no research has been conducted on the determinants of the performance of financial institutions in Bhutan to date, especially the COVID-19 pandemic (Yangchen et al., 2022). This research aims to address this gap by studying the impact of COVID-19, financial variables, and macroeconomic factors on the profitability of financial institutions in Bhutan. The panel data is collected from seven leading financial institutions (five commercial banks and two insurance companies) in Bhutan from 2018 to 2022. Random effects generalized least squares (GLS) regression was employed to conduct the empirical analysis focusing on dependent profitability indicators namely return on assets (ROA), return on equity (ROE), and net profit margin (NPM) and indicators of both financial and macroeconomic independent variables. The empirical results showed that Bhutanese financial institutions were resilient and were not significantly affected by COVID-19. The findings also revealed that non-performing loans (NPLs) and cost-to-income ratio (CIR) have a significant negative impact on the profitability of financial institutions in Bhutan, similar to previous research (Bhowmik & Sarker, 2024). The capital adequacy ratio (CAR) has a mixed relationship with profitability. Additionally, earnings per share (EPS) and statutory liquidity ratio (SLR) are found to have a marginal impact on profitability. On the other hand, asset size (LnTA), gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate, and inflation rate (INFL) are found to have insignificant effects on the profitability of financial institutions. The findings from this research provide useful recommendations and strategies to improve the profitability of financial institutions in Bhutan. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study fills a void in the literature by examining real estate capitalization rates for single-tenant net lease (STNL) properties. First, we examine cap rate variation in relation to market and firm-level fundamentals using individual transaction data in a multistage regression approach. Second, our single-tenant dataset, which allows us to control for characteristics such as industry and tenant credit ratings, gives us unique insight into not only the pricing of cap rates, but also their underlying drivers and their relationship to market fundamentals and returns on alternative assets. Using this unique dataset of more than 8,000 single-tenant net lease retail property transactions, we develop a quarterly cap rate index controlling for Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA) and industry fixed effects, property and lease characteristics, and localized influences such as population density and household income. Third, we examine the effect of excess corporate bond spreads, excess stock returns, stock market indicators, firm financials, and economic and demographic indicators. Finally, we examine the effect on cap rates of MSA characteristics such as size, wealth, poverty, crime, gross domestic product, and growth. The findings show that, besides the systematic risk from stock and bond returns, national and metropolitan economic forces and firm fundamental factors explain variation in cap rates. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Fluctuations in the international price of crude oil follows the axioms of the market economy, in which the prevailing price level is mostly decided by the demand and supply mechanism as a fundamental element. Oil price shocks has a negative and significant effect on Gross Domestic Product. Oil shocks transmission mechanism to the economy, starting from the effects of demand, supply, and even exchange rate of trade. Another factor having a significant effect on the stability of the financial system is the monetary cycle, which consists of inflation and the effect of exchange rates. The type of data in this study was time series data taken from January 2020 to December 2022 by conducting a documentation study conducted on the publication of monthly transaction reports from the required data. Financial System Stability Index is measured by the Credit Growth Rate of North Sumatra and monthly data from the Monetary Cycle and Macroeconomic Factors of World Oil Price. Inflation Variable had the highest extraction value, meaning that inflation had a significant effect on North Sumatra Financial Stability and this of course must be taken into consideration for the North Sumatra government in overcoming the impact of covid-19 which can disrupt the financial stability of North Sumatra. The variable money velocity was a moderating variable affecting the relationship between currency exchange rates and the financial system stability of North Sumatra. The results found that financial system stability could be realized by limiting the circulation of foreign currency in Indonesia by only granting ownership permits and foreign currency transactions for certain needs. Then the government must also play a serious role in dealing with the symptoms of inflation by ensuring that the supply chain of basic commodities for industrial and household needs can be comprehensively available so that inflation control can be carried out properly, so that the stability of the monetary system in a country can be achieved significantly and sustainably. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper contributes to the understanding of sovereign credit default swap (CDS) markets by examining the response of CDS spreads to macroeconomic factors and exploring extreme value dependence and its relation to economic cycles. The study focuses on four emerging countries in the Asia–Pacific sovereign CDS markets from 2009 to 2023 and utilises a dynamic quantile autoregressive distributed lag (QARDL) approach to account for statistical stylized facts. The findings reveal significant relationships between economic growth, inflation, volatility index (VIX), interest rates and real effective exchange rate on CDS spreads, with varying effects across quantiles and countries. Additionally, the study explores the impact of economic expansion and contraction on CDS spreads, highlighting the significant negative effects of the expansion in certain countries and the positive impacts of contraction phases. These findings provide valuable insights for policymakers in risk management and policy decision-making, emphasizing the need for policies that promote sustainable growth; manage market risks during volatile periods and consider the implications of interest rates, exchange rates and economic phases on financial stability. The empirical model used is evaluated for dynamic stability, and policy implications are discussed in light of the research outcomes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study analyses macroeconomic trends in Southeast Asian countries and their implications for climate change, focusing on urbanisation, GDP per capita, energy intensity, FDI, inflation, and trade. Using panel data from 1970 to 2020, we investigate climate change drivers across Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore, and Thailand through panel ARDL with PMG and MG analyses, along with Hausman tests. Our results highlight the need for tailored urbanisation policies for sustainability, as the consistent positive correlation between GDPs per capita and emissions, underscores the challenge of decoupling economic growth from emissions. Urbanisation's varying impact calls for proactive planning, and mixed FDI results suggest nuanced investment approaches aligned with sustainability. Inflation's negative impact hints at environmental benefits during price increases, necessitating integrated economic and climate policies. The positive relationship between trade openness and emissions emphasises the need for eco-conscious trade agreements to mitigate emissions from industrial activity. Our study stresses the importance of considering macroeconomic heterogeneity in crafting climate policies. Policymakers must adopt multifaceted approaches that prioritise sustainability across economic growth, energy efficiency, technology adoption, and trade to balance development with environmental preservation. This approach enables Southeast Asian countries to contribute effectively to global climate change mitigation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The aim of this research paper is to empirically identify the impact of internal and macroeconomic factors on the stability of the banking sector in Kosovo. The stability of banks is determined by the amount of risk they can be exposed to. NPLs (non-performing loans) are one of the main factors used to measure banking stability. In addition to the literature in the Eurozone and the United States, there is a gap in Kosovo regarding the impact of internal and macroeconomic factors on the stability of the banking sector. This paper aims to fill the existing gap and expand the literature and knowledge on banking stability. The paper attempts to answer the following questions: which are the internal and macroeconomic factors that impact the banking stability in Kosovo? Regression modelling using panel OLS, random and fixed effects was used to generate the main findings and results. Results show that return on assets, loan loss provision, capitalization, and bank size at p-value <0.05 have a statistically significant impact on non-performing loans, whereas loan growth, GDP, and inflation have statistically insignificant impact on nonperforming loans. The research paper is helpful for senior management of the banks, central bank, investors, and government to take into consideration the internal and macroeconomic factors that impact the banking stability. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The objective of this study is to examine the relationship between macroeconomic variables and the financial liquidity of companies. In this context, two main research questions were formulated. Firstly, which macroeconomic variables impact the financial liquidity of companies? Secondly, what is the direction and strength of the influence of these macroeconomic variables on the financial liquidity of companies? This study employed panel data analysis conducted on an unbalanced panel of 5327 Polish enterprises over the period 2003–2021. The primary research method employed was linear regression (pooled OLS) with robust standard errors clustered at the firm level. The main results of this study indicate that (1) the majority of macroeconomic variables, which illustrate the overall efficiency of the economic system (GDP per capita, ratio of foreign trade goods balance to GDP, CPI, and money supply), demonstrate a positive relationship with corporate liquidity; only the consumption-to-GDP ratio exhibits a negative relationship; (2) a positive relationship was observed between the number of building permits for housing and financial liquidity; (3) variables from the informal institutional environment indicate a positive relationship for the employment rate and a negative relationship for the share of the pre-working age population in the overall population; (4) the relationship between the ratio of internal expenditures on research and development to GDP and corporate liquidity is positive. This study addresses limitations of previous research by examining the impact of macroeconomic factors, particularly those from the institutional and technical environment, on corporate financial liquidity. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Copyright of Economics & Environment / Ekonomia i Środowisko is the property of Fundacja Ekonomistow Srodowiska i Zasobow Naturalnych and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

The aim of this research is to assess the existence of multiple bubbles in the global aluminum market by employing the Generalized Supremum Augmented Dickey-Fuller (GSADF) methodology. This method offers practical time series analysis tools for identifying periods of rapid price escalation, followed by subsequent collapses. Findings indicate the identification of six explosive bubbles occurring between January 1980 and March 2023, during which the aluminum price strayed from its underlying fundamental value. Additionally, this finding is consistent with the asset pricing model, which generally considers both fundamental and bubble components. Based on the empirical results, the aluminum price bubbles are positively influenced by the copper price, GDP, the U. S dollar index, industrialization of China, China’s urbanization rate, whereas the global aluminum production, oil price, and base metal price index have a negative explanatory effect on the aluminum price bubbles. To effectively stabilize the international aluminum price, policymakers are suggested to be vigilant in identifying bubble episodes and monitoring their progression. Additionally, regulatory authorities should implement measures to curb excessive speculative activity during periods of extreme market volatility, thereby mitigating excessive price fluctuations and the formation of aluminum bubbles.

The relationship between macroeconomic factors and stock market liquidity is known but not the same can be said of macroeconomic factors and VC market liquidity. This study investigates whether there is a cointegration between macroeconomic factors and VC market liquidity and examines how macroeconomic factors affect VC market liquidity. We perform a panel fully modified OLS regression analysis after carrying out panel cointegration on a country-level dataset of 22 EU/EEA countries from 2000 to 2020. There is a long-run covariance between VC market liquidity and macroeconomic variables. Specifically, a 1% expansion in the size of the economy would lead to 0.652%, 0.927%, 0.661%, 0.723%, and 0.755% increase in VC market liquidity measured by exits through trade sales, IPOs, sales to PE firms, financial institution and MBOs, respectively. The European VC market is progressively increasing in liquidity as can be seen in the UK, France, and Germany. We report that as the size of the economy and money supply increases, VC market liquidity increases. Interest rate is significantly inversely related to VC market liquidity. The result is mostly significant for some exit strategies such as trade sales and IPOs. However, on the whole, inflation and unemployment do not significantly relate to VC market liquidity. This article has practical implications for venture capitalists and investors. It informs investors on which exit route has a significant relation with macroeconomic variables in Europe. The study effectively shows the aggregate impact of the macroeconomic conditions which is usually not the case with firm-level data.

AbstractThe performance of bank stocks exhibits a country’s overall financial health and signals economic growth. Therefore, understanding the interaction of macroeconomic factors on bank stock returns is crucial for the valuation of financial assets, especially in a highly volatile stock market. Although macroeconomic factors and their impact on bank stock returns have been extensively investigated, there is still a dearth of comprehensive review articles in this domain. To address this lacuna, we conducted a systematic review to identify the macroeconomic determinants driving bank stock returns. Through a systematic search, 64 articles were identified from two electronic databases for literature synthesis based on inclusion and exclusion criteria from 1980–2023. The review posits valuable insights into the macroeconomic factors that influence bank stock returns, the nuances of the variables’ effects and the methodologies employed in these studies. The key macroeconomic factors identified include interest and exchange rate sensitivity, which has been studied extensively; however, the impact of monetary policies, gold prices and oil prices needs further investigation. Subsequently, the study documents various bank-specific characteristics that influence the relationship between macroeconomic factors and bank stock returns.

Investor sentiment plays an important role in financial markets and it is important to study the factors affecting it. Therefore, this paper, using the TVP-SVAR-SV method, has studied the time-varying effect of macroeconomic factors on investor sentiment in TSE during 2004-2 to 2022-4 seasonally. The findings showed that the impact of macroeconomic factor shocks on investors' sentiment is negative in the short term. After 2014-2, the exchange rate has had a positive effect on investor sentiment in the medium term. GDP and inflation also had a positive effect in the medium term. The fluctuation of investor reaction to the oil price shock in the short term is more than other macroeconomic factors and the biggest reaction was related to the drop in oil price in 2008. Compared to other macroeconomic factors, liquidity has had the strongest impact on investor sentiment in the short, medium and long term. The study of investor sentiment reaction to the shocks of macroeconomic factors in the three events of sanctions in 2012, the JCPOA and the coexistence of Covid-19 and the withdrawal of the United States from the JCPOA shows that the sentiment response to the shock of each of the factors in all three events was similar and no factor has had a lasting positive or negative effect on investor sentiment. In the first (third) event, compared to the other two events, the sentiment reaction to the shock of macro variables (except inflation) was stronger (weaker). The findings showed that the use of static approaches may lead to misleading results regarding the effect of macroeconomic factors on investor sentiment. In addition, the strong effectiveness of the investor's sentiment of self compared to the macroeconomic variables, explains the investors' behavior better.

Amaç: Bankaların temel amacı sürdürülebilir kârlılık politikası geliştirmek ve piyasa değerini artırmaktır. Bankaların sağlıklı bir yapı içerisinde olması ve kârlılıklarını sürekli olarak artırması faaliyet gösterdiği ekonomilerin gelişmesi açısından önemlidir. Bu çalışmada, Türk bankacılık sektörü kârlılığına etki eden faktörlerin tespiti ve değişkenlerin birbirleri olan ilişkilerinin belirlemesi amaçlanmıştır. Yöntem: Çalışmada, 02/2011-11/2022 dönemine ait aylık veri seti kullanılmıştır. Değişkenler arasında herhangi bir nedenselliğin olup olmadığı, nedensellik mevcutsa bu ilişkinin yönünün ne olduğu “Toda Yamamoto Testi” ile ikili analiz şeklinde test edilmiştir. Bulgular: Test sonuçlarına göre, Türk bankacılık sektörünün aktif karlılığı ile “Ücret, Komisyon ve Bankacılık Hizmetleri Gelirleri/Ortalama Toplam Aktifler” ve “İşletme Giderleri/Ortalama Toplam Aktifler” rasyoları arasında Granger nedensellik ilişkisinin olduğu tespit edilmiştir. Özgünlük: Çalışmada, Türk bankacılık sektörü verilerinin literatürdeki çalışmalardan farklı dışsal bağımsız değişkenlerle analize tabi tutulması çalışmanın özgün yanını oluşturmaktadır.

Abstract Although there has been a growing interest by researchers worldwide over the past decades to identify the factors pertaining to corporate financial distress and to develop financial distress prediction models that serve as early warning signs to the various firm stakeholders, notably to date, studies that were conducted were context specific and cannot be objectively generalized to other countries and rendered mixed inconclusive results. Therefore, the main objective of this study is to thoroughly investigate the factors that affect corporate financial distress in Egypt and to develop a multidimensional financial distress prediction model. Using comprehensive data of EGX100 listed firms, the researcher examines the role played by financial ratios, market-based indicators, macroeconomic factors, and corporate governance mechanisms in modeling corporate financial distress. Empirical results indicate that after controlling for the COVID-19 effects, the most significant financial ratios in predicting corporate financial distress are the working capital to total assets ratio, earnings before interest and taxes to total assets ratio, and the sales to total assets ratio. Such ratios are negatively related to the likelihood of corporate financial distress. However, the market value of equity to total liabilities ratio, and GDP growth rate have a positive impact on the likelihood of financial distress. However, the retained earnings to total assets ratio, the corporate governance mechanisms, the firm market capitalization, the interest rate, and the consumer price index are insignificant in predicting corporate financial distress in the Egyptian context. The resulting model demonstrates outstanding classification accuracy at around 96%.

Consider a credit portfolio with the investments in various sectors and exposed to an external stochastic environment. The portfolio loss due to defaults is of critical importance for social and economic security particularly in times of financial distress. We argue that the dependences among obligors within sectors (intradependence) and across sectors (interdependence) may coexist and influence the portfolio loss. To quantify the portfolio loss, we develop a multi-sector structural model in which a multivariate regular variation structure is employed to model the intradependence within sectors, and the interdependence across sectors is implied in the arbitrarily dependent macroeconomic factors, although, given them, obligors in different sectors are conditionally independent. We establish some sharp asymptotic formulas for the tail probability and the (tail) distortion risk measures of the portfolio loss. Our results show that the portfolio loss is mainly driven by the latent variables and the recovery rate function, and is also potentially affected by the macroeconomic factors and the intradependence within sectors. Moreover, we implement intensive numerical studies to examine the accuracy of the obtained approximations and conduct some sensitivity analysis. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper investigates the growth of mobile telecommunications across the 23 circles (or states) in India for the period 2005–2021. From this study, we note that diffusion of mobile phones in Indian circles (or states) was influenced by the telecommunication policy of the Indian government. We noted that the growth rates of mobile telephony in all the 23 states followed a logistic model. From this, we inferred that some of the Indian states, with low GDP per capita income started rolling out mobile telephony operations later than states with high GDP per capita income, but could catch with the later. It also follows that states with more rural regions had more adoption of mobile telephony. From this study, we can inform policy makers and telecom providers that electrical power consumption, Human Development Index (HDI), Herfindahl Index (HHI) and proportion of rural to urban ratio do not form an important parameter for mobile growth. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper examines the impact of macroeconomic factors, microstructure factors, uncertainty indexes, the investor sentiment, and global shock factors on the dynamic efficiency of G7 stock markets. We use a non-Bayesian Generalized least squares-based time-varying model by Ito et al. (Appl Econ 46(23):2744–2754, 2014; Appl Econ 48(7):621–635, 2016) and the time-varying adjusted market efficiency method. The results show using the augmented mean group estimator and heterogeneous panel causality method a strong relationship between stock market efficiency and oil prices. In addition, all stock markets became more inefficient during COVID-19 crisis and upward trend in oil prices. Furthermore, by means of the heterogeneous panel causality test, we find evidence of unidirectional from all the considered factors, except for the consumer confidence index variable, to stock market efficiency. Moreover, we show a significant bidirectional causality between the time-varying market efficiency and both interest rates, exchange rates, market volatility, economic policy uncertainty, and the composite leading indicator. The implications of our findings for investors and policymakers are discussed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The objective of this study was to examine the potential moderating effects of the relationship between macroeconomic variables and the financial liquidity of enterprises. Given the significance of liquidity for companies and the profound impact of the macroeconomic environment, a research gap was identified in relation to the limited number of studies investigating the influence of macroeconomic factors on corporate liquidity. Additionally, the limited scope of companies surveyed in this area, in terms of sector, size, capital market presence, and the limited range of macroeconomic variables examined were notable. Most importantly, the absence of studies examining moderators of the relationship between macroeconomic factors and liquidity was a significant concern. To this end, two main research questions were formulated. First, what factors moderate the relationship between macroeconomic variables and the financial liquidity of companies? Second, what is the nature of the moderating effects on the relationship between macroeconomic variables and corporate financial liquidity? This research employed panel data analysis on an unbalanced panel comprising 5327 Polish enterprises spanning from 2003 to 2021. The primary analytical technique utilised was linear regression (pooled OLS) with robust standard errors clustered at the firm level. The main results of this study indicate that: (1) debt level, profitability, and the fixed assets to total assets ratio are significant moderators of some of the relationships between macroeconomic variables and corporate liquidity; (2) debt level moderates the relationship between the ratio of internal expenditures on research and development to GDP and financial liquidity, as well as the relationship between inflation rate and liquidity; the relationship is statistically significant and positive only for those enterprises with above-median debt levels; (3) profitability moderates the relationship between the employment coefficient and financial liquidity, as well as the relationship between the inflation rate and liquidity; in the high-profitability group, those relationships are positive, whereas in the low-profitability group, they are negative; (4) the ratio of fixed assets to total assets moderates the relationship between the money supply and corporate financial liquidity; for enterprises with low asset flexibility, there is a negative relationship between the money supply and financial liquidity; conversely, for enterprises with high asset flexibility, there is a positive relationship between the money supply and financial liquidity; (5) the rationale behind these findings can be derived from capital structure theory and financial analysis theory. The results of this study represent a step towards a more comprehensive understanding of the relationship between the macro environment and corporate liquidity, as well as the factors that moderate this relationship from both a microeconomic and a macroeconomic perspective. The findings of this study may also inform policy decisions governing the corporate sector due to a more nuanced understanding of the relationships between macroeconomic factors and corporate liquidity. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study utilized both single-regime GARCH and double-regime GARCH models to investigate oil price volatility, Spanish macroeconomic factors, and stock prices during major crises such as geopolitical conflicts, the global financial crisis (GFC), and COVID-19, covering the period from Q2-1995 to Q4-2023. Additionally, the impact of crude oil price volatility on these factors was examined. The empirical results confirmed the presence of the leverage effect and identified multiple volatility switches associated with remarkable events like the GFC, the European debt crisis, the COVID-19 pandemic, and the Russian war. ARDL model analysis revealed a statistically significant positive relationship between oil prices and both unemployment and inflation rates in the long term, while other factors showed a negative correlation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Although there has been a growing interest by researchers worldwide over the past decades to identify the factors pertaining to corporate financial distress and to develop financial distress prediction models that serve as early warning signs to the various firm stakeholders, notably to date, studies that were conducted were context specific and cannot be objectively generalized to other countries and rendered mixed inconclusive results. Therefore, the main objective of this study is to thoroughly investigate the factors that affect corporate financial distress in Egypt and to develop a multidimensional financial distress prediction model. Using comprehensive data of EGX100 listed firms, the researcher examines the role played by financial ratios, market-based indicators, macroeconomic factors, and corporate governance mechanisms in modeling corporate financial distress. Empirical results indicate that after controlling for the COVID-19 effects, the most significant financial ratios in predicting corporate financial distress are the working capital to total assets ratio, earnings before interest and taxes to total assets ratio, and the sales to total assets ratio. Such ratios are negatively related to the likelihood of corporate financial distress. However, the market value of equity to total liabilities ratio, and GDP growth rate have a positive impact on the likelihood of financial distress. However, the retained earnings to total assets ratio, the corporate governance mechanisms, the firm market capitalization, the interest rate, and the consumer price index are insignificant in predicting corporate financial distress in the Egyptian context. The resulting model demonstrates outstanding classification accuracy at around 96%. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The research is intended to determine factors affecting Investors at Pakistan Stock exchange, and for this purpose four macroeconomic variables; interest rate, inflation rate, exchange rate and FDI were selected as predictors and return of KSE 100 was included as a dependent variable. Meanwhile, the time frame of the study was from January 2001 to December 2015 and the frequency of the data was monthly. The preliminary testing and diagnostic analysis suggested towards Johansen Cointegration which further suggested VECM and Granger causality. Empirical findings of the study suggest that there are cointegration equations within the variables, implying that variables can be used to perform estimation and prediction of another variable. Meanwhile, VECM model reveals no significant effect of the macroeconomic variables on the stock market in long-run at lag 1; but at lag 2 interest rate and FDI shows a negative and significant effect on the KSE 100 returns. In addition to this, granger causality also shows no short-run bi-directional interrelation of macroeconomic variables with KSE 100 returns. Therefore, it is concluded that in Pakistan macroeconomic variables does not influence investor's behaviors and do not affect investing trend in KSE 100 index. Meanwhile, implications for policymakers, investors, regulatory authorities, government and for researcher have also been discussed in the paper. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Copyright of Verimlilik Dergisi is the property of Verimlilik Dergisi and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

Orientation: Many shareholders rely on dividends for income. During crisis periods, managers, however, tend to retain rather than distribute earnings. Most prior research during the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic focussed on company-specific factors and industry association that favour earnings retention. As far as could be ascertained, no studies to date have investigated the role that macro-level factors could have played. Research purpose: The authors hence examined the extent to which government efficiency, business efficiency, infrastructure, economic performance, uncertainty avoidance, long-term orientation and indulgence influenced earnings retention at listed companies in 62 countries from 2019 to 2021. Motivation for the study: Additional insights were uncovered regarding the earnings retention decision during an economic crisis. Research approach/design and method: Earnings retention data were downloaded from Bloomberg database, and country-level data from the International Institute for Management Development, the World Bank, Hofstede Insights and the World Federation of Exchanges. Panel regressions were used to examine hypothesised relationships. Main findings: Contrary to expectation, earnings retention was negatively associated with the cultural dimension that measures uncertainty avoidance. The notion that less earnings would be retained in countries with high indulgence scores was, however, supported. Significant differences in earnings retention were observed across geographic regions and income groups. This descriptive study provides support for the dividend signalling theory in some countries. Practical/managerial implications: Shareholders who rely on dividends should be mindful of signalling behaviour during economic crises. Contribution/value-add: The findings enrich the extant literature on the earnings retention decision during an economic crisis by highlighting the importance of cultural dimensions, notably uncertainty avoidance and indulgence. Recommendations are offered to managers, shareholders and policymakers.

Abstract This study aims to investigate the influence of macroeconomic variables and bank-specific factors on the credit risk of Islamic banking in Pakistan, through the panel data regression tools. The statistical tool which is applied to the research is ordinary least square (OLS) regression model. All the assumption to be fulfilled before using OLS. The secondary data have been taken from four (04) full-fledged Islamic banks in Pakistan, from 2007 to 2021. The focus of the research is to find the impact of macroeconomic variables like Gross domestic product, inflation, and growth in the interest rate and bank-specific factors like size, return on assets, loan loss provision, capital Adequacy ratio, and Asset quality to determine the credit risk (non-performing loans) of Islamic banks in Pakistan. The result of the ordinary least square (OLS) regression model is that loan loss provisions (LLP) have a positive and significant impact on credit risk (CR) and size of bank (S), and Capital adequacy ratio (CAR) have a negative and significant impact on credit risk (CR) of Islamic Bank of Pakistan. Inflation (INF) and Gross domestic product (GDP) have a positive and insignificant impact on credit risk (CR), and growth in interest rate (INT), return on assets (ROA), and asset quality (AQ) has a negative and insignificant impact on Credit risk (CR) of Islamic Bank of Pakistan. Therefore, Islamic banks should carefully examine their specific factors, i.e. LLP, S, and CAR to manage their credit risk, particularly in monitoring loans.

This research study, set within the context of Malaysia's supply construction sector, serves a dual purpose. Firstly, it provides an in-depth examination of the sector's Gross Domestic Product (GDP) from 2015 to 2023. Secondly, it identifies and analyses the key macroeconomic forces that have shaped this sector over the specified timeframe. The study employs a comprehensive research approach, utilising correlation and regression analysis to scrutinise primary macroeconomic indicators such as exchange rates, base lending rates, and inflation. The data underpinning this research was meticulously gathered from the Department of Statistics Malaysia and Bank Negara Malaysia, both of which provided comprehensive datasets in .csv and Excel formats. Findings reveal that the Base Lending Rate (BLR) significantly impacts Malaysia's supply construction GDP, while exchange rates and inflation rates exert modest or statistically negligible effects. The regression model developed in the study highlights the dominant influence of BLR, positioning it as the most potent predictor among the investigated macroeconomic factors. This research elucidates the complex interplay between macroeconomic data and Malaysia's supply construction sector, emphasising the pivotal role of BLR in shaping the sector's performance and its subsequent impact on the broader economy. Furthermore, the study offers valuable insights for policymakers, industry stakeholders, and future research endeavours, thereby facilitating informed economic decision-making and strategic planning within the construction sector. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Sustainability reporting (SR) has emerged as a critical mechanism for organizations and nations to communicate their performance in terms of environmental, social, and governance (ESG). The present study investigates the challenges that prevent SR from being useful for system transparency and accountability. It identifies formidable barriers such as intentions, knowledge gaps, resource constraints, and the intricate nature of measurement metrics which necessitating a global collaborative efforts to improve SR's adaptability and acceptance within diverse systems. In addition, this pioneering research examines the factors that influence SR adoption and commitment at the national level. In the study, total interpretive structural modelling (TISM) is used to investigate the hierarchical relationship between factors while MICMAC analysis is administered to identify driver‐dependent connections. It reveals a multi‐layered structure in which macroeconomic factors such as political stability and resource availability drive regulatory effectiveness, operational factors such as administrative efficiency and awareness synergise for progress, and performance factors provide comprehensive insights into SR maturity at national level. The findings contribute significantly to the refinement of theoretical frameworks while emphasizing the importance of SR in advancing the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development. It emphasizes on political will, resource allocation, and tailored regulatory frameworks for comprehensive reporting of sustainability. This study provides practical insights for managers, policymakers, and businesses navigating sustainability reporting. It identifies drivers of national SR commitment and guides corporate practices towards sustainable development goals. Understanding these issues strengthens risk management and governance, while advanced measurement tools facilitate assessment and communication. Overall, it empowers stakeholders to elevate their engagement in enhancing sustainability practices, refining governance structures, and informing policy formulation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The relationship between macroeconomic factors and stock market liquidity is known but not the same can be said of macroeconomic factors and VC market liquidity. This study investigates whether there is a cointegration between macroeconomic factors and VC market liquidity and examines how macroeconomic factors affect VC market liquidity. We perform a panel fully modified OLS regression analysis after carrying out panel cointegration on a country-level dataset of 22 EU/EEA countries from 2000 to 2020. There is a long-run covariance between VC market liquidity and macroeconomic variables. Specifically, a 1% expansion in the size of the economy would lead to 0.652%, 0.927%, 0.661%, 0.723%, and 0.755% increase in VC market liquidity measured by exits through trade sales, IPOs, sales to PE firms, financial institution and MBOs, respectively. The European VC market is progressively increasing in liquidity as can be seen in the UK, France, and Germany. We report that as the size of the economy and money supply increases, VC market liquidity increases. Interest rate is significantly inversely related to VC market liquidity. The result is mostly significant for some exit strategies such as trade sales and IPOs. However, on the whole, inflation and unemployment do not significantly relate to VC market liquidity. This article has practical implications for venture capitalists and investors. It informs investors on which exit route has a significant relation with macroeconomic variables in Europe. The study effectively shows the aggregate impact of the macroeconomic conditions which is usually not the case with firm-level data. IMPACT STATEMENT: In well-developed financial markets, the venture capital (VC) market complements the stock market in providing equity finance. However, the VC market remains underdeveloped even in Europe. This paper attempts to address this market failure by exploring the liquidity of the VC market and its relationship with macroeconomic variables to provide some assurances to market participants. To provide reasonable assurance of minimal losses during the exit stage of VC activities, the VC market in Europe may exit through IPOs, trade sales, Mezzanine financing, MBOs, and sales to private equity firms and financial institutions. We confirm a cointegration between macroeconomic factors and VC market liquidity. The study finds that as the size of the economy and money supply increases, VC market liquidity increases. Interest rate is significantly inversely related to VC market liquidity. Investors and potential investors need not worry about inflation and unemployment because they do not significantly affect VC market liquidity. The paper informs market participants that trade sales and IPOs are the most popular VC exit routes and for that matter, very liquid in Europe. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The performance of bank stocks exhibits a country's overall financial health and signals economic growth. Therefore, understanding the interaction of macroeconomic factors on bank stock returns is crucial for the valuation of financial assets, especially in a highly volatile stock market. Although macroeconomic factors and their impact on bank stock returns have been extensively investigated, there is still a dearth of comprehensive review articles in this domain. To address this lacuna, we conducted a systematic review to identify the macroeconomic determinants driving bank stock returns. Through a systematic search, 64 articles were identified from two electronic databases for literature synthesis based on inclusion and exclusion criteria from 1980–2023. The review posits valuable insights into the macroeconomic factors that influence bank stock returns, the nuances of the variables' effects and the methodologies employed in these studies. The key macroeconomic factors identified include interest and exchange rate sensitivity, which has been studied extensively; however, the impact of monetary policies, gold prices and oil prices needs further investigation. Subsequently, the study documents various bank-specific characteristics that influence the relationship between macroeconomic factors and bank stock returns. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Understanding the intricate relationship between macroeconomic factors and logistics performance is of paramount importance in today's globalized economy. Efficient logistics operations are not only crucial for facilitating international trade but also serve as a cornerstone for driving economic growth and fostering competitiveness on the global stage. The Logistics Performance Index (LPI), developed by the World Bank, stands as a vital tool for assessing the efficacy of logistics infrastructure and procedures in facilitating the seamless movement of goods across borders. In this study, we delve into the nexus between macroeconomic indicators--namely Gross Domestic Product (GDP), Foreign Direct Investment (FDI), Inflation Rate, and Trade (TRD) and the Logistics Performance Index, aiming to unravel the underlying dynamics that shape logistical efficiency and trade facilitation. By analyzing data from 139 countries in 2022 and employing regression analysis, we unravel the complexities of how these macroeconomic variables interact with logistics performance. The findings reveal intriguing insights, emphasizing the substantial positive impact of Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) and trade openness on the Logistics Performance Index. While FDI fosters improvements in logistics infrastructure and technology, trade openness enhances logistical efficiency through streamlined customs procedures and trade facilitation measures. Conversely, the influence of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) on logistics performance was found to be negligible, suggesting that other factors play a more significant role in shaping logistical efficiency. Moreover, the analysis sheds light on the nuanced relationship between the Inflation Rate and the Logistics Performance Index, with changes in inflation showing low significant impact on logistical efficiency within the scope of this study. However, further exploration is warranted to uncover potential contextual nuances and long-term effects of inflation dynamics on logistical operations. This study underscores the critical importance of considering macroeconomic factors in logistics planning and policymaking. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Insufficient liquidity can become a significant obstacle to stock trading and impede the smooth operation and performance of the stock market. This motivated the study to investigate the effect of stock market liquidity on stock market performance in Nigeria. The research design employed was ex post facto, while stratified sampling technique was used to select top 30 actively traded and most liquid companies tagged NGX-30 for this study. Data were sourced secondarily from SEC Statistical Bulletin, CBN Statistical Bulletin and www.investing.com. The Vector Error Correction (VEC) System Equation Regression was employed as the estimation technique. The results revealed that liquidity depth, liquidity breadth, and liquidity immediacy have significant positive effects on stock market performance as shown by ? = 0.2019, 8.5594, 3.3268; p-value = 0.0329, 0.0052, 0.0467 respectively. Also, interest rate, inflation rate and exchange rate have varied significant effects on stock market performance as shown by ? = -0.0023, -1.1738, 0.03432; p-value = 0.0634, 0.0346, 0.0778 respectively. Therefore, the study concluded that stock liquid significantly affects stock market performance. Thus, the study recommended that the Security and Exchange Commission (SEC) should implement policies that encourage the participation of more traders to increase the number of actively traded stocks; support measures that improve the depth of the market by promoting transparency and fairness; improve the infrastructure for trade execution to enhance liquidity immediacy; and develop mechanisms to promptly identify and mitigate market risks.

The paper investigates the correlation between house prices and main macroeconomic factors for the markets in Bulgaria and the EU for the period from 2016 to the first half of 2023. The analysis aims to enrich existing research on the Bulgarian housing market which is still developing and compare the findings to the EU market as a benchmark for the performance of a developed residential market. Residential property prices in Bulgaria experience the highest correlation with inflation, unemployment and GDP while they are least related to changes in the average mortgage interest rate. In contrast, the European housing market overall is most strongly correlated to changes in the average mortgage interest rate, followed by GDP and unemployment while it is least related to inflation. Results are consistent with existing studies which indicate that different macroeconomic factors impact the housing markets because of local economy specifics. Comparison to prior analysis of the Bulgarian market suggests that the relationship between housing prices and macroeconomic factors also varies during different periods and economic cycles.

The exchange rate value of the rupiah against the US dollar fluctuates and tends to depreciate throughout the year. So it is very important to analyze the factors that influence the exchange rates to maintain its stability. The relationship between several macroeconomic factors such as inflation, interest rates, GDP, and trade openness as well as political stability factors and world oil prices on exchange rates are the main topics of discussion in this study. Monthly data in time series 2010-2020, processed using the Eviews 12 and tested using the multiple linear regression method. There is a significant positive effect between interest rates, GDP, and world oil prices for the type of WTI on the exchange rates. Meanwhile, trade openness, political stability, and world oil prices for the Brent type have a significant negative effect on the exchange rates. As for the inflation variable, it does not have a significant effect on the exchange rates. The government as a policy maker is expected to be able to regulate macroeconomic factors, maintain political stability, and control the supply of crude oil properly to maintain the exchange rate stability.

Aims: The aim is to analyze the impact of macroeconomic factors on the dynamics of realizing the foreign trade potential of companies based on vector autoregression and the formation of strategic priorities for the companies’ economic activities. Methods: The research methodology is based on the application of methods of time series analysis and impulse response functions. The Granger causality test was used for the linear causal relationship between the analyzed indicators. The study used statistical data for the period 2001–2020 in the annual section of the World Bank Trade Map portal. Results: It is shown that the innovative development of the country contributes to an increase in non-raw material trade with countries geographically close to its borders. It was revealed that the level of agricultural development of the importing country influences the import of cereals with a lag effect of 3–4 years. Justified: The intensification of export-import operations contributes to the development of the production potential of countries as a whole, creating great potential for enhancing the economic activity of agricultural companies and creating incentives for the development of the economies of the country's regions. It has been determined that the foreign trade system is an equilibrium system that returns to a stable state 2-3 years after the shock impact of exogenous and endogenous factors. Novelty: The novelty of the study lies in the assessment of the dynamic impact of the shock impact of exogenous and endogenous factors on macroeconomic indicators, taking into account the specifics of the foreign trade turnover of countries. Conclusion: The results of the study can be used to develop a strategy for the development of foreign trade activities, including grain crops for both countries, to realize more reliable forecasting of foreign economic transactions with a lag of 3-5 years. Doi: 10.28991/HEF-2023-04-04-08 Full Text: PDF

The purpose of the paper is to observe and analyze how the dynamics of macroeconomic factors impact the evolution of the Bucharest Stock Exchange (BVB) during the latest crisis (Covid-19 pandemic and the Ukrainian war), through the lens of various market stock indices (BET, BetPlus, BET-FI and BET-NG). After the monthly values of both the macroeconomic factors (inflation rate, unemployment rate, RON-EURO exchange rates, industrial production index, average salary, money supply, interest rate and oil price) and Bucharest Stock Exchange indices were collected, during the period January 2020- June 2023, the descriptive statistics was used to describe all the observed data (mean value, standard deviation, minimum/ maximum value). Finally, the multiple regression was used to see exactly how the Romanian stock market indices are influenced by any changes of macroeconomic factors.

The consumer price index plays an important role in the current economic-financial activity because the income level is updated with the help of the rate of this index, both in the private environment and in public institutions, which means that if the level of the index is high, salaries or pensions are increased accordingly. The objective of this paper is to examine the impact of the most important aspects related to the consumer price index and some of the most important macroeconomic determinants in Romania. The authors consider this research proposal necessary because it has been observed that the consumer price index influences the economic situation within a country and causes changes in unfavorable directions on macroeconomic indicators. The study is based on a set of statistical data covering the period 1990-2021. The result of econometric model indicates that all the proposed independent variables – economic growth, labor productivity, invested capital, gross salary, net salary, have a significant impact on the consumer price index – the dependent variable. Our opinion is that the consumer price index influences to a large extent the economic and social activity of Romania because following the results of the econometric analysis it was found that Capital investment and Grosswages are the main factors that led to the increase of the Consumer Price Index, while the study presents and some unfavorable directions (Economic Growth, Labour productivity, Net wages) with direct influence on Consumer Price Index.

This study analyses macroeconomic trends in Southeast Asian countries and their implications for climate change, focusing on urbanisation, GDP per capita, energy intensity, FDI, inflation, and trade. Using panel data from 1970 to 2020, we investigate climate change drivers across Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore, and Thailand through panel ARDL with PMG and MG analyses, along with Hausman tests. Our results highlight the need for tailored urbanisation policies for sustainability, as the consistent positive correlation between GDPs per capita and emissions, underscores the challenge of decoupling economic growth from emissions. Urbanisation’s varying impact calls for proactive planning, and mixed FDI results suggest nuanced investment approaches aligned with sustainability. Inflation’s negative impact hints at environmental benefits during price increases, necessitating integrated economic and climate policies. The positive relationship between trade openness and emissions emphasises the need for eco-conscious trade agreements to mitigate emissions from industrial activity. Our study stresses the importance of considering macroeconomic heterogeneity in crafting climate policies. Policymakers must adopt multifaceted approaches that prioritise sustainability across economic growth, energy efficiency, technology adoption, and trade to balance development with environmental preservation. This approach enables Southeast Asian countries to contribute effectively to global climate change mitigation.

The objective of this study is to examine the relationship between macroeconomic variables and the financial liquidity of companies. In this context, two main research questions were formulated. Firstly, which macroeconomic variables impact the financial liquidity of companies? Secondly, what is the direction and strength of the influence of these macroeconomic variables on the financial liquidity of companies? This study employed panel data analysis conducted on an unbalanced panel of 5327 Polish enterprises over the period 2003–2021. The primary research method employed was linear regression (pooled OLS) with robust standard errors clustered at the firm level. The main results of this study indicate that (1) the majority of macroeconomic variables, which illustrate the overall efficiency of the economic system (GDP per capita, ratio of foreign trade goods balance to GDP, CPI, and money supply), demonstrate a positive relationship with corporate liquidity; only the consumption-to-GDP ratio exhibits a negative relationship; (2) a positive relationship was observed between the number of building permits for housing and financial liquidity; (3) variables from the informal institutional environment indicate a positive relationship for the employment rate and a negative relationship for the share of the pre-working age population in the overall population; (4) the relationship between the ratio of internal expenditures on research and development to GDP and corporate liquidity is positive. This study addresses limitations of previous research by examining the impact of macroeconomic factors, particularly those from the institutional and technical environment, on corporate financial liquidity.

This study examines the nexus between non-performing loans (NPLs) and the shadow economy, as well as macroeconomic and bank-specific variables, in 25 emerging countries from the period starting 1998 to 2017 period. The Driscoll-Kraay standard errors and a fixed effect estimator have been employed, and the results suggest that NPLs have a positive relationship with the shadow economy as well as inflation and trade openness. In contrast, GDP, unemployment, household consumption, credit to deposit ratio, broad money, bank return on equity, and overall economic freedom index have a negative effect on NPLs. Our results demonstrate the complex nature of non-performing loans, which are influenced by both microeconomic and macroeconomic factors.

In this study, the explanatory power of the macro variables in relation to the variation of stock returns has been discussed in terms of the economy of the USA. To make an analysis of the cross-section of the stock returns, 131 Macroeconomic variables between 1964 and 2007 have been put into use. Summing up the information in 131 monthly series, dynamic factor analysis is used to take out 8 potential factors. So that the pragmatic presentation of the factor model can be measured, Fama-Macbeth’s test procedure of two phases is applied. In addition to the variables included in the literature such as market risk factor, size factor, value factor, and momentum factors, it is found that the macro factors are highly influential on the explanation of the common variation in U.S stock returns. The tests stated above have been performed by means of Fama French 49 industry portfolios, apart from Fama French 100 portfolios that have been formed on size and book. Furthermore, the factor model is established and intended for certain periods of boom and recession. The relations established between latent factors and stock returns appear to be unimportant during the downturn periods.