Search

JWST provides new opportunities to cross-check the HST Cepheid/SNeIa distance ladder, which yields the most precise local measure of H0. We analyze early JWST subsamples (~1/4 of the HST sample) from the SH0ES and CCHP groups, calibrated by a single anchor (N4258). We find HST Cepheid distances agree well (~1 sigma) with all 8 combinations of methods, samples, and telescopes: JWST Cepheids, TRGB, and JAGB by either group, plus HST TRGB and Miras. The comparisons explicitly include the measurement uncertainty of each method in N4258, an oft-neglected but dominant term. Mean differences are ~0.03 mag, far smaller than the 0.18 mag "Hubble tension." Combining all measures produces the strongest constraint yet on the linearity of HST Cepheid distances, 0.994+-0.010, ruling out distance-dependent bias or offset as the source of the tension at ~7 sigma. Yet, measurements of H0 from current JWST subsamples produce large sampling differences whose size and direction we can directly estimate from the full HST set. We show that Delta(H0)~2.5 km/s/Mpc between the CCHP JWST program and the full HST sample is entirely consistent with differences in sample selection. Combining all JWST samples produces a new, distance-limited set of 16 SNeIa at D<25 Mpc and more closely resembles the full sample thanks to "reversion to the mean" of larger samples. Using JWST Cepheids, JAGB, and TRGB, we find 73.4+-2.1, 72.2+-2.2, and 72.1+-2.2 km/s/Mpc, respectively. Explicitly accounting for SNe in common, the combined-sample three-method result from JWST is H0=72.6+-2.0, similar to H0=72.8 expected from HST Cepheids in the same galaxies. The small JWST sample trivially lowers the Hubble tension significance due to small-sample statistics and is not yet competitive with the HST set (42 SNeIa and 4 anchors), which yields 73.2+-0.9. Still, the joint JWST sample provides important crosschecks which the HST data passes., Comment: ApJ accepted, version replaced with accepted version

The Hubble Tension, a >5 sigma discrepancy between direct and indirect measurements of the Hubble constant (H0), has persisted for a decade and motivated intense scrutiny of the paths used to infer H0. Comparing independently-derived distances for a set of galaxies with different standard candles, such as the tip of the red giant branch (TRGB) and Cepheid variables, can test for systematics in the middle rung of the distance ladder. The I band is the preferred filter for measuring the TRGB due to constancy with color, a result of low sensitivity to population differences in age and metallicity supported by stellar models. We use James Webb Space Telescope (JWST) observations with the maser host NGC 4258 as our geometric anchor to measure I-band (F090W vs F090W-F150W) TRGB distances to 8 hosts of 10 Type Ia supernovae (SNe Ia) within 28 Mpc: NGC 1448, NGC 1559, NGC 2525, NGC 3370, NGC 3447, NGC 5584, NGC 5643, and NGC 5861. We compare these with Hubble Space Telescope (HST) Cepheid-based relative distance moduli for the same galaxies and anchor. We find no evidence of a difference between their weighted means, 0.01 +/- 0.04 (stat) +/- 0.04 (sys) mag. We produce fourteen variants of the TRGB analysis, altering the smoothing level and color range used to measure the tips to explore their impact. For some hosts, this changes the identification of the strongest peak, but this causes little change to the sample mean difference producing a full range of 0.01 to 0.03 mag, all consistent at 1 sigma with no difference. The result matches past comparisons of I-band TRGB and Cepheids when both use HST. SNe and anchor samples observed with JWST are too small to yield a measure of H0 that is competitive with the HST sample of 42 SNe Ia and 4 anchors; however, they already provide a vital systematic crosscheck to HST measurements of the distance ladder., Comment: 15 pages, 5 figures, 4 tables, submitted to ApJ, comments welcome

We present the results of a search for Miras and long-period variables (LPVs) in M33 using griJHKs archival observations from the Canada-France-Hawai'i Telescope. We use multiband information and machine learning techniques to identify and characterize these variables. We recover ~1,300 previously-discovered Mira candidates and identify ~13,000 new Miras and LPVs. We detect for the first time a clear first-overtone pulsation sequence among Mira candidates in this galaxy. We use O-rich, fundamental-mode Miras in the LMC and M33 to derive a distance modulus for the latter of 24.629 +/- 0.046 mag., Comment: Published in MNRAS; data available at http://github.com/lmacri/m33sss_miras

We present phase-corrected photometric measurements of 88 Cepheid variables in the core of the Small Magellanic Cloud (SMC), the first sample obtained with the Hubble Space Telescope's (HST) Wide Field Camera 3, in the same homogeneous photometric system as past measurements of all Cepheids on the SH0ES distance ladder. We limit the sample to the inner core and model the geometry to reduce errors in prior studies due to the nontrivial depth of this cloud. Without crowding present in ground-based studies, we obtain an unprecedentedly low dispersion of 0.102 mag for a period-luminosity (P-L) relation in the SMC, approaching the width of the Cepheid instability strip. The new geometric distance to 15 late-type detached eclipsing binaries in the SMC offers a rare opportunity to improve the foundation of the distance ladder, increasing the number of calibrating galaxies from three to four. With the SMC as the only anchor, we find H$_0\!=\!74.1 \pm 2.1$ km/s/Mpc. Combining these four geometric distances with our HST photometry of SMC Cepheids, we obtain H$_0\!=\!73.17 \pm 0.86$ km/s/Mpc. By including the SMC in the distance ladder, we also double the range where the metallicity ([Fe/H]) dependence of the Cepheid P-L relation can be calibrated, and we find $\gamma = -0.234 \pm 0.052$ mag/dex. Our local measurement of H$_0$ based on Cepheids and Type Ia supernovae shows a 5.8$\sigma$ tension with the value inferred from the cosmic microwave background assuming a Lambda cold dark matter ($\Lambda$CDM) cosmology, reinforcing the possibility of physics beyond $\Lambda$CDM., Comment: Accepted to ApJ. Data Tables are available at: https://github.com/lbreuval/SMC_Cepheids_HST

The tip of the red giant branch (TRGB) allows for the measurement of precise and accurate distances to nearby galaxies, based on the brightest ascent of low-mass red giant branch stars before they undergo the helium flash. With the advent of JWST, there is great promise to utilize the technique to measure galaxy distances out to at least 50 Mpc, significantly further than HST's reach of 20 Mpc. However, with any standard candle, it is first necessary to provide an absolute reference. Here we use Cycle 1 data to provide an absolute calibration in the F090W filter. F090W is most similar to the F814W filter commonly used for TRGB measurements with HST, which had been adopted by the community due to minimal dependence from the underlying metallicities and ages of stars. The imaging we use was taken in the outskirts of NGC 4258, which has a direct geometrical distance measurement from the Keplerian motion of its water megamaser. Utilizing several measurement techniques, we find $M_{TRGB}^{F090W}$ = -4.362 $\pm$ 0.033 (stat) $\pm$ 0.045 (sys) mag (Vega) for the metal-poor TRGB. We also perform measurements of the TRGB in two Type Ia supernova hosts, NGC 1559, and NGC 5584. We find good agreement between our TRGB distances and previous distance determinations to these galaxies from Cepheids ($\Delta$ = 0.01 $\pm$ 0.06 mag), with these differences being too small to explain the Hubble tension ($\sim$0.17 mag). As a final bonus, we showcase the serendipitous discovery of a faint dwarf galaxy near NGC 5584., Comment: 20 pages, 12 figures, accepted to ApJ

We present high-definition observations with the James Webb Space Telescope of >1000 Cepheids in a geometric anchor of the distance ladder, NGC4258, and in 5 hosts of 8 SNe~Ia, a far greater sample than previous studies with JWST. These galaxies individually contain the largest samples of Cepheids, an average of >150 each, producing the strongest statistical comparison to those previously measured with the Hubble Space Telescope in the NIR. They also span the distance range of those used to determine the Hubble constant with HST, allowing us to search for a distance-dependent bias in HST measurements. The superior resolution of JWST negates crowding noise, the largest source of variance in the NIR Cepheid Period-Luminosity relations (Leavitt laws) measured with HST. Together with the use of two-epochs to constrain Cepheid phases and three filters to remove reddening, we reduce the dispersion in the Cepheid PL relations by a factor of 2.5. We find no significant difference in the mean distance measurements determined from HST and JWST, with a formal difference of -0.01+/-0.03 mag. This result is independent of zeropoints and analysis variants including metallicity dependence, local crowding, choice of filters, and relation slope. We can reject the hypothesis of unrecognized crowding of Cepheid photometry from HST that grows with distance as the cause of the ``Hubble Tension'' at 8.2 sigma, i.e., greater confidence than that of the Hubble Tension itself. We conclude that errors in photometric measurements of Cepheids across the distance ladder do not significantly contribute to the Tension., Comment: ApJ Letters, accepted

The giant spiral galaxy M101 is host to the nearest recent Type Ia Supernova (SN 2011fe) and thus has been extensively monitored in the near-infrared to study the late-time lightcurve of the supernova. Leveraging this existing baseline of observations, we derive the first Mira-based distance to M101 by discovering and classifying a sample of 211 Miras with periods ranging from 240 to 400 days in the supernova field. Combined with new HST WFC3/IR channel observations, our dataset totals 11 epochs of F110W (HST $YJ$) and 13 epochs of F160W (HST $H$) data spanning $\sim$2900 days. We adopt absolute calibrations of the Mira Period-Luminosity Relation based on geometric distances to the Large Magellanic Cloud and the water megamaser host galaxy NGC 4258, and find $\mu_{\rm M101} = $ 29.10 $\pm$ 0.06 mag. This distance is in 1$\sigma$ agreement with most other recent Cepheid and Tip of the Red Giant Branch distance measurements to M101. Including the previous Mira-SNIa host, NGC 1559 and SN 2005df, we determine the fiducial SN Ia peak luminosity, $M^0_B = -19.27 \pm 0.09$ mag. With the Hubble diagram of SNe Ia, we derive $H_0 = 72.37 \pm 2.97 $ km s$^{-1}$Mpc$^{-1}$, a $4.1\%$ measurement of $H_0$ using Miras. We find excellent agreement with recent Cepheid distance ladder measurements of $H_0$ and confirm previous indications that the local universe value of $H_0$ is higher than the early-universe value at $\sim$ $95\%$ confidence. Currently, the Mira-based $H_0$ measurement is still dominated by the statistical uncertainty in the SN Ia peak magnitude., Comment: 22 pages, 11 figures, accepted to ApJ

Milky Way Cepheid variables with accurate {\it Hubble Space Telescope} photometry have been established as standards for primary calibration of the cosmic distance ladder to achieve a percent-level determination of the Hubble constant ($H_0$). These 75 Cepheid standards are the fundamental sample for investigation of possible residual systematics in the local $H_0$ determination due to metallicity effects on their period-luminosity relations. We obtained new high-resolution ($R\sim81,000$), high signal-to-noise ($S/N\sim50-150$) multi-epoch spectra of 42 out of 75 Cepheid standards using ESPaDOnS instrument at the 3.6-m Canada-France-Hawaii Telescope. Our spectroscopic metallicity measurements are in good agreement with the literature values with systematic differences up to $0.1$ dex due to different metallicity scales. We homogenized and updated the spectroscopic metallicities of all 75 Milky Way Cepheid standards and derived their multiwavelength ($GVIJHK_s$) period-luminosity-metallicity and period-Wesenheit-metallicity relations using the latest {\it Gaia} parallaxes. The metallicity coefficients of these empirically calibrated relations exhibit large uncertainties due to low statistics and a narrow metallicity range ($\Delta\textrm{[Fe/H]}=0.6$~dex). These metallicity coefficients are up to three times better constrained if we include Cepheids in the Large Magellanic Cloud and range between $-0.21\pm0.07$ and $-0.43\pm0.06$ mag/dex. The updated spectroscopic metallicities of these Milky Way Cepheid standards were used in the Cepheid-Supernovae distance ladder formalism to determine $H_0=72.9~\pm 1.0$\textrm{~km~s$^{-1}$~Mpc$^{-1}$}, suggesting little variation ($\sim 0.1$ ~km~s$^{-1}$~Mpc$^{-1}$) in the local $H_0$ measurements due to different Cepheid metallicity scales., Comment: 14 pages, 4 figures, Accepted for publication in The Astrophysical Journal Letters

High-resolution JWST observations can test confusion-limited HST observations for a photometric bias that could affect extragalactic Cepheids and the determination of the Hubble constant. We present JWST NIRCAM observations in two epochs and three filters of >330 Cepheids in NGC4258 (which has a 1.5% maser-based geometric distance) and in NGC5584 (host of SNIa 2007af), near the median distance of the SH0ES HST SNIa host sample and with the best leverage among them to detect such a bias. JWST provides far superior source separation from line-of-sight companions than HST in the NIR to largely negate confusion or crowding noise at these wavelengths, where extinction is minimal. The result is a remarkable >2.5x reduction in the dispersion of the Cepheid P-L relations, from 0.45 to 0.17 mag, improving individual Cepheid precision from 20% to 7%. Two-epoch photometry confirmed identifications, tested JWST photometric stability, and constrained Cepheid phases. The P-L relation intercepts are in very good agreement, with differences (JWST-HST) of 0.00+/-0.03 and 0.02+/-0.03 mag for NGC4258 and NGC5584, respectively. The difference in the determination of H_0 between HST and JWST from these intercepts is 0.02+/-0.04 mag, insensitive to JWST zeropoints or count-rate non-linearity thanks to error cancellation between rungs. We explore a broad range of analysis variants (including passband combinations, phase corrections, measured detector offsets, and crowding levels) indicating robust baseline results. These observations provide the strongest evidence yet that systematic errors in HST Cepheid photometry do not play a significant role in the present Hubble Tension. Upcoming JWST observations of >12 SNIa hosts should further refine the local measurement of the Hubble constant., Comment: submitted to ApJ, comments welcome

As our nearest large neighbor, the Andromeda Galaxy provides a unique laboratory for investigating galaxy formation and the distribution and substructure properties of dark matter in a Milky Way-like galaxy. Here, we propose an initial 2-epoch ($\Delta t\approx 5$yr), 2-band Roman survey of the entire halo of Andromeda, covering 500 square degrees, which will detect nearly every red giant star in the halo (10$\sigma$ detection in F146, F062 of 26.5, 26.1AB mag respectively) and yield proper motions to $\sim$25 microarcsec/year (i.e., $\sim$90 km/s) for all stars brighter than F146 $\approx 23.6$ AB mag (i.e., reaching the red clump stars in the Andromeda halo). This survey will yield (through averaging) high-fidelity proper motions for all satellites and compact substructures in the Andromeda halo and will enable statistical searches for clusters in chemo-dynamical space. Adding a third epoch during the extended mission will improve these proper motions by $\sim t^{-1.5}$, to $\approx 11$ km/s, but this requires obtaining the first epoch in Year 1 of Roman operations. In combination with ongoing and imminent spectroscopic campaigns with ground-based telescopes, this Roman survey has the potential to yield full 3-d space motions of $>$100,000 stars in the Andromeda halo, including (by combining individual measurements) robust space motions of its entire globular cluster and most of its dwarf galaxy satellite populations. It will also identify high-velocity stars in Andromeda, providing unique information on the processes that create this population. These data offer a unique opportunity to study the immigration history, halo formation, and underlying dark matter scaffolding of a galaxy other than our own., Comment: Submitted in response to the call for Roman Space Telescope Core Community Survey white papers

The Nancy Grace Roman Space Telescope is capable of delivering an unprecedented all-sky, high-spatial resolution, multi-epoch infrared map to the astronomical community. This opportunity arises in the midst of numerous ground- and space-based surveys that will provide extensive spectroscopy and imaging together covering the entire sky (such as Rubin/LSST, Euclid, UNIONS, SPHEREx, DESI, SDSS-V, GALAH, 4MOST, WEAVE, MOONS, PFS, UVEX, NEO Surveyor, etc.). Roman can uniquely provide uniform high-spatial-resolution (~0.1 arcsec) imaging over the entire sky, vastly expanding the science reach and precision of all of these near-term and future surveys. This imaging will not only enhance other surveys, but also facilitate completely new science. By imaging the full sky over two epochs, Roman can measure the proper motions for stars across the entire Milky Way, probing 100 times fainter than Gaia out to the very edge of the Galaxy. Here, we propose NANCY: a completely public, all-sky survey that will create a high-value legacy dataset benefiting innumerable ongoing and forthcoming studies of the universe. NANCY is a pure expression of Roman's potential: it images the entire sky, at high spatial resolution, in a broad infrared bandpass that collects as many photons as possible. The majority of all ongoing astronomical surveys would benefit from incorporating observations of NANCY into their analyses, whether these surveys focus on nearby stars, the Milky Way, near-field cosmology, or the broader universe., Comment: Submitted to the call for white papers for the Roman Core Community Survey (June 16th, 2023), and to the Bulletin of the AAS

The SH0ES collaboration Hubble constant determination is in a ${\sim}5\sigma$ difference with the $Planck$ value, known as the Hubble tension. The accuracy of the Hubble constant measured with extragalactic Cepheids depends on robust stellar-crowding background estimation. Riess et al. (R20) compared the light curves amplitudes of extragalactic and MW Cepheids to constrain an unaccounted systematic blending bias, $\gamma=-0.029\pm0.037\,\rm{mag}$, which cannot explain the required, $\gamma=0.24\pm0.05\,\rm{mag}$, to resolve the Hubble tension. Further checks by Riess et al. demonstrate that a possible blending is not likely related to the size of the crowding correction. We repeat the R20 analysis, with the following main differences: (1) we limit the extragalactic and MW Cepheids comparison to periods $P\lesssim50\,\rm{d}$, since the number of MW Cepheids with longer periods is minimal; (2) we use publicly available data to recalibrate amplitude ratios of MW Cepheids in standard passbands; (3) we remeasure the amplitudes of Cepheids in NGC 5584 and NGC 4258 in two HST filters ($F555W$ and $F350LP$) to improve the empirical constraint on their amplitude ratio $A^{555}/A^{350}$. We show that the filter transformations introduce an ${\approx}0.04\,\rm{mag}$ uncertainty in determining $\gamma$, not included by R20. While our final estimate, $\gamma=0.013\pm0.057\,\rm{mag}$, is consistent with the value derived by R20 and is consistent with no bias, the error is somewhat larger, and the best fitting value is shifted by ${\approx}0.04\,\rm{mag}$ and closer to zero. Future observations, especially with JWST, would allow better calibration of $\gamma$., Comment: 19 pages, 10 figures. Accepted for publication in MNRAS

We present a low-dispersion period-luminosity relation (PL) based on 154 Cepheids in Messier 33 (M33) with Hubble Space Telescope (HST) photometry from the PHATTER survey. Using high-quality ground-based light curves, we recover Cepheid phases and amplitudes for multi-epoch HST data and we perform template fitting to derive intensity-averaged mean magnitudes. HST observations in the SH0ES near-infrared Wesenheit system significantly reduce the effect of crowding relative to ground-based data, as seen in the final PL scatter of $\sigma$ = 0.11 mag. We adopt the absolute calibration of the PL based on HST observations in the Large Magellanic Cloud (LMC) and a distance derived using late-type detached eclipsing binaries to obtain a distance modulus for M33 of $\mu$ = 24.622 $\pm$ 0.030 mag (d = 840 $\pm$ 11 kpc), a best-to-date precision of 1.3%. We find very good agreement with past Cepheid-based measurements. Several TRGB estimates bracket our result while disagreeing with each other. Finally, we show that the flux contribution from star clusters hosting Cepheids in M33 does not impact the distance measurement and we find only 3.7% of the sample is located in (or nearby) young clusters. M33 offers one of the best sites for the cross-calibration of many primary distance indicators. Thus, a precise independent geometric determination of its distance would provide a valuable new anchor to measure the Hubble constant., Comment: Submitted to ApJ, comments welcome

We report the first look at extragalactic Cepheid variables with the James Webb Space Telescope, obtained from a serendipitous (to this purpose) observation of NGC 1365, host of an SN Ia (SN 2012fr), a calibration path used to measure the Hubble constant. As expected, the high-resolution observations with NIRCam through F200W show better source separation from line-of-sight companions than HST images at similar near-infrared wavelengths, the spectral region that has been used to mitigate the impact of host dust on distance measurements. Using the standard star P330E as a zeropoint and PSF reference, we photometered 31 previously-known Cepheids in the JWST field, spanning 1.15 < log P < 1.75 including 24 Cepheids in the longer period interval of 1.35 < log P < 1.75. We compared the resultant Period-Luminosity relations to that of 49 Cepheids in the full period range including 38 in the longer period range observed with WFC3/IR on HST and transformed to the JWST photometric system (F200W, Vega). The P-L relations measured with the two space telescopes are in good agreement, with intercepts (at log P=1) of 25.74+/-0.04 and 25.72+\-0.05 for HST and JWST, respectively. Our baseline result comes from the longer period range where the Cepheids have higher signal-to-noise ratios where we find 25.75+\-0.05 and 25.75+\-0.06 mag for HST and JWST, respectively. We find good consistency between this first JWST measurement and HST, and no evidence that HST Cepheid photometry is "biased bright" at the ~0.2 mag level that would be needed to mitigate the Hubble Tension, though comparisons from more SN hosts are warranted and anticipated. We expect future JWST observations to surpass these in quality as they will be optimized for measuring Cepheids., Comment: 11 pages, 4 figures

We present HST photometry of 17 Cepheids in open clusters and their mean parallaxes from Gaia EDR3. These parallaxes are more precise than those from individual Cepheids (G<8 mag) previously used to measure the Hubble constant because they are derived from an average of >300 stars per cluster. Cluster parallaxes also have smaller systematic uncertainty because their stars lie in the range (G>13 mag) where the Gaia parallax calibration is most comprehensive. Cepheid photometry employed in the period--luminosity relation was measured using the same instrument(WFC3) and filters(F555W,F814W,F160W) as extragalactic Cepheids in SNIa hosts. We find no evidence of residual parallax offset in this magnitude range, zp=-3+/-4 muas, consistent with Lindegren:2021b and most studies. The Cepheid luminosity (P=10d, solar-metallicity) in the HST near-infrared, Wesenheit system derived from the cluster sample is M_{H,1}^W=-5.902+/-0.025 and -5.890+/-0.018 mag with or without simultaneous determination of a parallax offset, respectively. These results are similar to measurements from field Cepheids, confirming the accuracy of the Gaia parallaxes over a broad range of magnitudes. The SH0ES distance ladder calibrated solely from this sample gives H_0=72.8+/-1.3 and H_0=73.2+/-1.1 km/s/Mpc with or without offset marginalization; combined with all anchors we find H_0=73.01+/-0.99 and 73.15+/-0.97, respectively, a 5% or 7% reduction in the uncertainty and a 5.3 sigma Hubble Tension relative to Planck+LambdaCDM. It appears increasingly difficult to reconcile two of the best measured cosmic scales, parallaxes from Gaia and the angular size of the acoustic scale of the CMB, using the simplest form of LambdaCDM to join the two., Comment: 12 pages, submitted to ApJ, comments welcome

The three rung distance ladder, which calibrates Type Ia supernovae through stellar distances linked to geometric measurements, provides the highest precision direct measurement of the Hubble constant. In light of the Hubble tension, it is important to test the individual components of the distance ladder. For this purpose, we report a measurement of the Hubble constant from 35 extragalactic Cepheid hosts measured by the SH0ES team, using their distances and redshifts at cz < 3300 km /s , instead of any, more distant Type Ia supernovae, to measure the Hubble flow. The Cepheid distances are calibrated geometrically in the Milky Way, NGC 4258, and the Large Magellanic Cloud. Peculiar velocities are a significant source of systematic uncertainty at z $\sim$ 0.01, and we present a formalism for both mitigating and quantifying their effects, making use of external reconstructions of the density and velocity fields in the nearby universe. We identify a significant source of uncertainty originating from different assumptions about the selection criteria of this sample, whether distance or redshift limited, as it was assembled over three decades. Modeling these assumptions yields central values ranging from H0 = 71.8 to 77.0 km/s/Mpc. Combining the four best fitting selection models yields H0 = 73.1 (+2.6/-2.3) km/s/Mpc as a fiducial result, at $2.6\sigma$ tension with Planck. While Type Ia supernovae are essential for a precise measurement of H0, unknown systematics in these supernovae are unlikely to be the source of the Hubble tension, Comment: 26 Pages, 11 Figures, Submitted to ApJ

NGC 4258 is one of the most important anchors for calibrating the Cepheid period--luminosity relations (PLRs) owing to its accurate distance measured from water maser motions. We expand on previous efforts and carry out a new Cepheid search in this system using the Hubble Space Telescope (HST). We discover and measure a sample of 669 Cepheids in four new and two archival NGC 4258 fields, doubling the number of known Cepheids in this galaxy and obtaining an absolute calibration of their optical PLRs. We determine a Wesenheit PLR of $-2.574(\pm0.034) -3.294(\pm0.042) \log P$, consistent with an independent Large Magellanic Cloud (LMC) calibration at the level of $0.032\pm0.044$~mag in its zeropoint, after accounting for a metallicity dependence of $-0.20\pm0.05$~mag\,dex$^{-1}$ (Riess et al. 2006). Our determination of the PLR slope also agrees with the LMC-based value within their uncertainties. We attempt to characterize the metallicity effect of Cepheid PLRs using only the NGC 4258 sample, but a relatively narrow span of abundances limits our sensitivity and yields a Wesenheit zero-point dependence of $-0.07 \pm 0.21$ mag\,dex$^{-1}$. The Cepheid measurements presented in this study have been used as part of the data to derive the Hubble constant in a companion paper by the SH0ES team., Comment: Accepted to ApJ. 13 pages, 8 figures

In this paper we will list a few important goals that need to be addressed in the next decade, also taking into account the current discordances between the different cosmological probes, such as the disagreement in the value of the Hubble constant $H_0$, the $\sigma_8$--$S_8$ tension, and other less statistically significant anomalies. While these discordances can still be in part the result of systematic errors, their persistence after several years of accurate analysis strongly hints at cracks in the standard cosmological scenario and the necessity for new physics or generalisations beyond the standard model. In this paper, we focus on the $5.0\,\sigma$ tension between the {\it Planck} CMB estimate of the Hubble constant $H_0$ and the SH0ES collaboration measurements. After showing the $H_0$ evaluations made from different teams using different methods and geometric calibrations, we list a few interesting new physics models that could alleviate this tension and discuss how the next decade's experiments will be crucial. Moreover, we focus on the tension of the {\it Planck} CMB data with weak lensing measurements and redshift surveys, about the value of the matter energy density $\Omega_m$, and the amplitude or rate of the growth of structure ($\sigma_8,f\sigma_8$). We list a few interesting models proposed for alleviating this tension, and we discuss the importance of trying to fit a full array of data with a single model and not just one parameter at a time. Additionally, we present a wide range of other less discussed anomalies at a statistical significance level lower than the $H_0$--$S_8$ tensions which may also constitute hints towards new physics, and we discuss possible generic theoretical approaches that can collectively explain the non-standard nature of these signals.[Abridged], Comment: Contribution to Snowmass 2021. 224 pages, 27 figures. Accepted for publication in JHEAp

We present H-band light curves of Milky Way Classical Cepheids observed as part of the DEHVILS survey with the Wide-Field Infrared Camera on the United Kingdom InfraRed Telescope. Due to the crowded nature of these fields caused by defocusing the Camera, we performed difference-imaging photometry by modifying a pipeline originally developed to analyze images from the Transiting Exoplanet Survey Satellite. We achieved a photometric precision in line with expectations from photon statistics, reaching 0.01 mag for 8 <= H <= 11 mag. We used the resulting Cepheid light curves to derive corrections to "mean light" for random-phase Hubble Space Telescope observations in F160W. We find good agreement with previous phase corrections based on VI light curves from the literature, with a mean difference of -1 +/- 6 millimag., Comment: Accepted for publication in the Astrophysical Journal Supplement Series. 14 pages, 6 figures

We report observations from HST of Cepheids in the hosts of 42 SNe Ia used to calibrate the Hubble constant (H0). These include all suitable SNe Ia in the last 40 years at z<0.01, measured with >1000 orbits, more than doubling the sample whose size limits the precision of H0. The Cepheids are calibrated geometrically from Gaia EDR3 parallaxes, masers in N4258 (here tripling that Cepheid sample), and DEBs in the LMC. The Cepheids were measured with the same WFC3 instrument and filters (F555W, F814W, F160W) to negate zeropoint errors. We present multiple verifications of Cepheid photometry and tests of background determinations that show measurements are accurate in the presence of crowding. The SNe calibrate the mag-z relation from the new Pantheon+ compilation, accounting here for covariance between all SN data, with host properties and SN surveys matched to negate differences. We decrease the uncertainty in H0 to 1 km/s/Mpc with systematics. We present a comprehensive set of ~70 analysis variants to explore the sensitivity of H0 to selections of anchors, SN surveys, z range, variations in the analysis of dust, metallicity, form of the P-L relation, SN color, flows, sample bifurcations, and simultaneous measurement of H(z). Our baseline result from the Cepheid-SN sample is H0=73.04+-1.04 km/s/Mpc, which includes systematics and lies near the median of all analysis variants. We demonstrate consistency with measures from HST of the TRGB between SN hosts and NGC 4258 with Cepheids and together these yield 72.53+-0.99. Including high-z SN Ia we find H0=73.30+-1.04 with q0=-0.51+-0.024. We find a 5-sigma difference with H0 predicted by Planck+LCDM, with no indication this arises from measurement errors or analysis variations considered to date. The source of this now long-standing discrepancy between direct and cosmological routes to determining the Hubble constant remains unknown., Comment: 67 pages, 31 figures, replaced to match ApJ accepted version (March 2022), Table 6 distances included here, long form of photometry tables, fitting code, compact form of data, available from Github page, https://pantheonplussh0es.github.io

Classical Cepheids are primary distance indicators and a crucial stepping stone to determining the present-day Hubble constant Ho to the precision and accuracy required to constrain apparent deviations from the LCDM Concordance Cosmological Model. We have measured the iron and oxygen abundances of of 89 Cepheids in the LMC, one of the anchors of the local Distance Scale, quadrupling the prior sample and including 68 of the 70 Cepheids used to constrain Ho by the SH0ES program. The goal is to constrain the extent to which the Cepheid luminosity is influenced by their chemical composition, an important contributor to the uncertainty on the determination of the Ho itself and a critical factor in the internal consistency of the distance ladder. We have derived stellar parameters and abundances from a self-consistent spectroscopic analysis based on Equivalent Width of absorption lines. The [Fe/H] distribution of LMC Cepheids is a single Gaussian with a mean of -0.4079+-0.003 dex (0.1 dex systematic uncertainty) and sigma 0.076+-0.003 dex. The latter is fully compatible with the measurement error and supports the low dispersion of 0.069 mag seen in the NIR HST LMC period-luminosity relation. The uniformity of the abundance has the important consequence that the LMC Cepheids alone cannot provide any meaningful constraint on the dependence of the Cepheid Period-Luminosity relation on chemical composition at any wavelength. This revises a prior claim based on a small sample of 22 LMC Cepheids that there was little dependence (or uncertainty) between composition and NIR luminosity, a conclusion which would produce a conflict between anchors of the distance ladder with different mean abundance. The chemical homogeneity of the LMC Cepheid population makes it an ideal environment to calibrate the metallicity dependence between the more metal poor SMC and metal rich Milky Way and NGC4258., Comment: A&A in press, 14 pages, 13 figures

We present Period-Luminosity Relations (PLRs) for 55 Cepheids in M31 with periods ranging from 4 to 78 days observed with the Hubble Space Telescope (HST) using the same three-band photometric system recently used to calibrate their luminosities. Images were taken with the Wide Field Camera 3 in two optical filters (F555W and F814W) and one near-infrared filter (F160W) using the Drift And SHift (DASH) mode of operation to significantly reduce overheads and observe widely-separated Cepheids in a single orbit. We include additional F160W epochs for each Cepheid from the Panchromatic Hubble Andromeda Treasury (PHAT) and use light curves from the Panoramic Survey Telescope and Rapid Response System of the Andromeda galaxy (PAndromeda) project to determine mean magnitudes. Combined with a 1.28$\%$ absolute calibration of Cepheid PLRs in the Large Magellanic Cloud from Riess et al. (2019a) in the same three filters, we find a distance modulus to M31 of $\mu_0$ = 24.407 $\pm$ 0.032, corresponding to 761 $\pm$ 11 kpc and 1.49$\%$ uncertainty including all error sources, the most precise determination of its distance to date. We compare our results to past measurements using Cepheids and the Tip of the Red Giant Branch (TRGB). This study also provides the groundwork for turning M31 into a precision anchor galaxy in the cosmic distance ladder to measure the Hubble constant together with efforts to measure a fully geometric distance to M31., Comment: Accepted by ApJ, 19 pages, 5 figures, 6 tables

The Period--Luminosity relation (PLR) of Mira variable stars is an important tool to determine astronomical distances. The common approach of estimating the PLR is a two-step procedure that first estimates the Mira periods and then runs a linear regression of magnitude on log period. When the light curves are sparse and noisy, the accuracy of period estimation decreases and can suffer from aliasing effects. Some methods improve accuracy by incorporating complex model structures at the expense of significant computational costs. Another drawback of existing methods is that they only provide point estimation without proper estimation of uncertainty. To overcome these challenges, we develop a hierarchical Bayesian model that simultaneously models the quasi-periodic variations for a collection of Mira light curves while estimating their common PLR. By borrowing strengths through the PLR, our method automatically reduces the aliasing effect, improves the accuracy of period estimation, and is capable of characterizing the estimation uncertainty. We develop a scalable stochastic variational inference algorithm for computation that can effectively deal with the multimodal posterior of period. The effectiveness of the proposed method is demonstrated through simulations, and an application to observations of Miras in the Local Group galaxy M33. Without using ad-hoc period correction tricks, our method achieves a distance estimate of M33 that is consistent with published work. Our method also shows superior robustness to downsampling of the light curves.

We present an expanded sample of 75 Milky Way Cepheids with Hubble Space Telescope (HST) photometry and Gaia EDR3 parallaxes which we use to recalibrate the extragalactic distance ladder and refine the determination of the Hubble constant. All HST observations were obtained with the same instrument (WFC3) and filters (F555W, F814W, F160W) used for imaging of extragalactic Cepheids in Type Ia supernova (SN Ia) hosts. The HST observations used the WFC3 spatial scanning mode to mitigate saturation and reduce pixel-to-pixel calibration errors, reaching a mean photometric error of 5 millimags per observation. We use new Gaia EDR3 parallaxes, vastly improved since DR2, and the Period-Luminosity (PL) relation of these Cepheids to simultaneously calibrate the extragalactic distance ladder and to refine the determination of the Gaia EDR3 parallax offset. The resulting geometric calibration of Cepheid luminosities has 1.0% precision, better than any alternative geometric anchor. Applied to the calibration of SNe~Ia, it results in a measurement of the Hubble constant of 73.0 +/- 1.4 km/sec/Mpc, in good agreement with conclusions based on earlier Gaia data releases. We also find the slope of the Cepheid PL relation in the Milky Way, and the metallicity dependence of its zeropoint, to be in good agreement with the mean values derived from other galaxies. In combination with the best complementary sources of Cepheid calibration, we reach 1.8% precision and find H_0=73.2 +/- 1.3 km/sec/Mpc, a 4.2 sigma difference with the prediction from Planck CMB observations under LambdaCDM. We expect to reach ~1.3% precision in the near term from an expanded sample of ~40 SNe Ia in Cepheid hosts., Comment: submitted to ApJ, 21 pages, 5 figures, data table included

We derive a distance of $D = 16.6 \pm 0.3$~Mpc ($\mu=31.10\pm0.04$~mag) to the archetypal narrow-line Seyfert 1 galaxy NGC 4051 based on Cepheid Period--Luminosity relations and new Hubble Space Telescope multiband imaging. We identify 419 Cepheid candidates and estimate the distance at both optical and near-infrared wavelengths using subsamples of precisely-photometered variables (123 and 47 in the optical and near-infrared subsamples, respectively). We compare our independent photometric procedures and distance-estimation methods to those used by the SH0ES team and find agreement to 0.01~mag. The distance we obtain suggests an Eddington ratio $\dot{m} \approx 0.2$ for NGC 4051, typical of narrow-line Seyfert 1 galaxies, unlike the seemingly-odd value implied by previous distance estimates. We derive a peculiar velocity of $-490\pm34$~km~s$^{-1}$ for NGC 4051, consistent with the overall motion of the Ursa Major Cluster in which it resides. We also revisit the energetics of the NGC 4051 nucleus, including its outflow and mass accretion rates., Comment: 15 pages, 12 figures, 6 tables, accepted for publication in ApJ

We derive a distance of $15.8\pm0.4$ Mpc to the archetypical Seyfert 1 galaxy NGC 4151 based on the near-infrared Cepheid Period-Luminosity relation and new Hubble Space Telescope multiband imaging. This distance determination, based on measurements of 35 long-period ($P > 25$d) Cepheids, will support the absolute calibration of the supermassive black hole mass in this system, as well as studies of the dynamics of the feedback or feeding of its active galactic nucleus., Comment: 18 pages. 11 figures. 7 tables. Accepted for publication in ApJ

The accuracy of the Hubble constant measured with extragalactic Cepheids depends on robust photometry and background estimation in the presence of stellar crowding. The conventional approach accounts for crowding by sampling backgrounds near Cepheids and assuming they match those at their positions. We show a direct consequence of crowding by unresolved sources at Cepheid sites is a reduction in the fractional amplitudes of their light curves. We use a simple analytical expression to infer crowding directly from the light curve amplitudes of >200 Cepheids in 3 SNe~Ia hosts and NGC 4258 as observed by HST -- the first near-infrared amplitudes measured beyond the Magellanic Clouds. Where local crowding is minimal, we find near-infrared amplitudes match Milky Way Cepheids at the same periods. At greater stellar densities we find that the empirically measured amplitudes match the values predicted (with no free parameters) from crowding assessed in the conventional way from local regions, confirming their accuracy for estimating the background at the Cepheid locations. Extragalactic Cepheid amplitudes would need to be ~20% smaller than measured to indicate additional, unrecognized crowding as a primary source of the present discrepancy in H_0. Rather we find the amplitude data constrains a systematic mis-estimate of Cepheid backgrounds to be 0.029 +/- 0.037 mag, more than 5x smaller than the size of the present ~0.2 mag tension in H_0. We conclude that systematic errors in Cepheid backgrounds do not provide a plausible resolution to the Hubble tension., Comment: submitted to ApJ, comments welcome, 25 pages, 7 figures

The Habitable Exoplanet Observatory, or HabEx, has been designed to be the Great Observatory of the 2030s. For the first time in human history, technologies have matured sufficiently to enable an affordable space-based telescope mission capable of discovering and characterizing Earthlike planets orbiting nearby bright sunlike stars in order to search for signs of habitability and biosignatures. Such a mission can also be equipped with instrumentation that will enable broad and exciting general astrophysics and planetary science not possible from current or planned facilities. HabEx is a space telescope with unique imaging and multi-object spectroscopic capabilities at wavelengths ranging from ultraviolet (UV) to near-IR. These capabilities allow for a broad suite of compelling science that cuts across the entire NASA astrophysics portfolio. HabEx has three primary science goals: (1) Seek out nearby worlds and explore their habitability; (2) Map out nearby planetary systems and understand the diversity of the worlds they contain; (3) Enable new explorations of astrophysical systems from our own solar system to external galaxies by extending our reach in the UV through near-IR. This Great Observatory science will be selected through a competed GO program, and will account for about 50% of the HabEx primary mission. The preferred HabEx architecture is a 4m, monolithic, off-axis telescope that is diffraction-limited at 0.4 microns and is in an L2 orbit. HabEx employs two starlight suppression systems: a coronagraph and a starshade, each with their own dedicated instrument., Comment: Full report: 498 pages. Executive Summary: 14 pages. More information about HabEx can be found here: https://www.jpl.nasa.gov/habex/

The 2MASS Redshift Survey was started two decades ago with the goal of mapping the three-dimensional distribution of an all-sky flux-limited (Ks<11.75 mag) sample of ~45,000 galaxies. Our first data release (Huchra et al. 2012) presented an unprecedented uniform coverage for most of the celestial sphere, with redshifts for ~98% of our sample. However, we were missing redshifts for ~18% of the catalog entries that were located within the "Zone of Avoidance" (|b|<10 deg) -- an important region of the sky for studies of large-scale structure and cosmic flows. In this second and final data release, we present redshifts for all 1041 2MRS galaxies that previously lacked this information, as well as updated measurements for 27 others.

We present year-long, near-infrared Hubble Space Telescope WFC3 observations used to search for Mira variables in NGC 1559, the host galaxy of the Type Ia supernova (SN Ia) 2005df. This is the first dedicated search for Miras, highly-evolved low-mass stars, in a SN Ia host and subsequently the first calibration of the SN Ia luminosity using Miras in a role historically played by Cepheids. We identify a sample of 115 O-rich Miras with P < 400 days based on their light curve properties. We find that the scatter in the Mira Period-Luminosity Relation (PLR) is comparable to Cepheid PLRs seen in SN Ia supernova host galaxies. Using a sample of O-rich Miras discovered in NGC 4258 with HST F160W and its maser distance, we measure a distance modulus for NGC 1559 of mu1559 = 31.41 +/- 0.050 (statistical) +/- 0.060 (systematic) mag. Based on the light curve of the normal, well-observed, low-reddening SN 2005df, we obtain a measurement of the fiducial SN Ia absolute magnitude of MB0 = -19.27 +/- 0.13 mag. With the Hubble diagram of SNe Ia we find H0 = 72.7 +/- 4.6 kms-1 Mpc-1. Combining the calibration from the NGC 4258 megamaser and the Large Magellanic Cloud detached eclipsing binaries gives a best value of H0 = 73.3 +/- 4.0 km s-1 Mpc-1. This result is within 1-sigma of the Hubble constant derived using Cepheids and multiple calibrating SNe Ia. This is the first of four expected calibrations of the SN Ia luminosity from Miras which should reduce the error in H0 via Miras to ~3%. In light of the present Hubble tension and JWST, Miras have utility in the extragalactic distance scale to check Cepheid distances or calibrate nearby SNe in early-type host galaxies that would be unlikely targets for Cepheid searches., Comment: 15 pages, 11 figures, ApJ in press

We present a calibration of the Tip of the Red Giant Branch (TRGB) in the Large Magellanic Cloud (LMC) on the HST/ACS F814W system. We use archival HST observations to derive blending corrections and photometric transformations for two ground-based wide-area imaging surveys of the Magellanic Clouds. We show that these surveys are biased bright by up to ~0.1 mag in the optical due to blending, and that the bias is a function of local stellar density. We correct the LMC TRGB magnitudes from Jang & Lee (2017) and use the geometric distance from Pietrzynski et al. (2019) to obtain an absolute TRGB magnitude of M_F814W=-3.97+/-0.046 mag. Applying this calibration to the TRGB magnitudes from Freedman et al. (2019) in SN Ia hosts yields a value for the Hubble constant of H_0=72.4+/-2.0 km/s/Mpc for their TRGB+SNe Ia distance ladder. The difference in the TRGB calibration and the value of H_0 derived here and by Freedman et al. (2019) primarily results from their overestimate of the LMC extinction, caused by inconsistencies in their different sources of TRGB photometry for the Magellanic Clouds. Using the same source of photometry (OGLE) for both Clouds and applying the aforementioned corrections yields a value for the LMC I-band TRGB extinction that is lower by 0.06 mag, consistent with independent OGLE reddening maps used by us and by Jang & Lee (2017) to calibrate TRGB and determine H_0., Comment: Accepted for publication in ApJ. This version incorporates all changes introduced during the refereeing process

We present the final distance measurements for the 2MASS Tully-Fisher (2MTF) survey. The final 2MTF catalogue contains 2,062 nearby spiral galaxies in the CMB frame velocity range of 600 km s$^{-1}$ $< cz < 10,000$ km s$^{-1}$ with a mean velocity of 4,805 km s$^{-1}$. The main update in this release is the replacement of some archival HI data with newer ALFALFA data. Using the 2MTF template relation, we calculate the distances and peculiar velocities of all 2MTF galaxies. The mean uncertainties of the linear distance measurements are around 22\% in all three infrared bands. 2MTF measurements agree well with the distances from the Cosmicflows-3 compilation, which contains 1,117 common galaxies, including 28 with SNIa distance measurements. Using distances estimated from the `3-bands combined' 2MTF sample and a $\chi^2$ minimization method, we find best-fit bulk flow amplitudes of $308 \pm 26$ km s$^{-1}$, $318 \pm 29$ km s$^{-1}$, and $286 \pm 25$ km s$^{-1}$ at depths of $R_I = $ 20, 30 and 40 $h^{-1}{\rm Mpc}$, respectively, which is consistent with the $\Lambda$CDM model and with previous 2MTF results with different estimation techniques and a preliminary catalogue., Comment: 8 pages, 6 figures, 2 tables, accepted for publication in MNRAS

We present an improved determination of the Hubble constant (H0) from Hubble Space Telescope (HST) observations of 70 long-period Cepheids in the Large Magellanic Cloud. These were obtained with the same WFC3 photometric system used to measure Cepheids in the hosts of Type Ia supernovae. Gyroscopic control of HST was employed to reduce overheads while collecting a large sample of widely-separated Cepheids. The Cepheid Period-Luminosity relation provides a zeropoint-free link with 0.4% precision between the new 1.2% geometric distance to the LMC from Detached Eclipsing Binaries (DEBs) measured by Pietrzynski et al (2019) and the luminosity of SNe Ia. Measurements and analysis of the LMC Cepheids were completed prior to knowledge of the new LMC distance. Combined with a refined calibration of the count-rate linearity of WFC3-IR with 0.1% precision (Riess et al 2019), these three improved elements together reduce the full uncertainty in the LMC geometric calibration of the Cepheid distance ladder from 2.5% to 1.3%. Using only the LMC DEBs to calibrate the ladder we find H0=74.22 +/- 1.82 km/s/Mpc including systematic uncertainties, 3% higher than before for this particular anchor. Combining the LMC DEBs, masers in NGC 4258 and Milky Way parallaxes yields our best estimate: H0 = 74.03 +/- 1.42 km/s/Mpc, including systematics, an uncertainty of 1.91%---15% lower than our best previous result. Removing any one of these anchors changes H0 by < 0.7%. The difference between H0 measured locally and the value inferred from Planck CMB+LCDM is 6.6+/-1.5 km/s/Mpc or 4.4 sigma (P=99.999% for Gaussian errors) in significance, raising the discrepancy beyond a plausible level of chance. We summarize independent tests which show this discrepancy is not readily attributable to an error in any one source or measurement, increasing the odds that it results from a cosmological feature beyond LambdaCDM., Comment: accepted by ApJ, replaced with accepted version, 25 pages, 5 figures

We present the results of the optical follow-up, conducted by the TOROS collaboration, of gravitational wave events detected during the Advanced LIGO-Virgo second observing run (Nov 2016 -- Aug 2017). Given the limited field of view ($\sim100\arcmin$) of our observational instrumentation we targeted galaxies within the area of high localization probability that were observable from our sites. We analyzed the observations using difference imaging, followed by a Random Forest algorithm to discriminate between real and bogus transients. For all three events that we respond to, except GW170817, we did not find any bona fide optical transient that was plausibly linked with the observed gravitational wave event. Our observations were conducted using telescopes at Estaci\'{o}n Astrof\'{\i}sica de Bosque Alegre, Cerro Tololo Inter-American Observatory, and the Dr. Cristina V. Torres Memorial Astronomical Observatory. Our results are consistent with the LIGO-Virgo detections of a binary black hole merger (GW170104) for which no electromagnetic counterparts were expected, as well as a binary neutron star merger (GW170817) for which an optical transient was found as expected., Comment: 9 pages, 4 figures

Shanks et al. (2018) arXiv:1810.02595 make two claims that they argue bring the local measurement and early Universe prediction of H0 into agreement: A) they claim that Gaia DR2 parallax measurements show the geometric calibration of the Cepheid distance scale used to measure H0 to be grossly in error and B) that we live near the middle of an enormous void, further biasing the local measurement of the Hubble constant. We show that the first claim is caused by five erroneous uses of the data: in decreasing order of importance: 1) the use of a distance indicator, main sequence fitting of cluster stars, which is unrelated to the calibration of Cepheids and therefore has no bearing on current measurements of H0; 2) the use of Gaia data for Cepheids that fully saturate the detector, producing unreliable parallaxes; 3) the use of a fixed parallax offset which is known to depend on source magnitude and color but which is derived for sources with extremely different colors and magnitudes; 4) ignoring the uncertainty in this offset; and 5) ignoring the other geometric sources of Cepheid calibration, the distance of the LMC from detached eclipsing binaries and the masers in NGC 4258, which are independent of Milky Way parallaxes. Just resolving the first two of these issues by not using unrelated or saturated data leads to no inconsistency between Gaia parallaxes and the current Cepheid distance scale. The second claim can be refuted 6) because of the increase in chi-squared that the alleged void would entail in SN measurements in the Hubble flow, and 7) because it would represent a 6 sigma fluctuation of cosmic variance between the local and globally measured expansion, requiring us to live in an exceedingly special location., Comment: 4 pages, 1 figure, response to arXiv:1810.02595

We analyze sparsely-sampled near-infrared (JHKs) light curves of a sample of 1781 Mira variable candidates in M33, originally discovered using I-band time-series observations. We extend our single-band semi-parametric Gaussian process modeling of Mira light curves to a multi-band version and obtain improved period determinations. We use our previous results on near-infrared properties of candidate Miras in the LMC to classify the majority of the M33 sample into Oxygen- or Carbon-rich subsets. We derive Period-Luminosity relations for O-rich Miras and determine a distance modulus for M33 of 24.80 +- 0.06 mag.

The Type Ia supernovae (SNe Ia) 2011by, hosted in NGC 3972, and 2011fe, hosted in M101, are optical "twins," having almost identical optical light-curve shapes, colours, and near-maximum-brightness spectra. However, SN 2011fe had significantly more ultraviolet (UV; 1600 < lambda < 2500 A) flux than SN 2011by before and at peak luminosity. Theory suggests that SNe Ia with higher progenitor metallicity should (1) have additional UV opacity near peak and thus lower UV flux; (2) have an essentially unchanged optical spectral-energy distribution; (3) have a similar optical light-curve shape; and (4) because of the excess neutrons, produce more stable Fe-group elements at the expense of radioactive 56Ni and thus have a lower peak luminosity. Foley & Kirshner (2013) suggested that the difference in UV flux between SNe 2011by and 2011fe was the result of their progenitors having significantly different metallicities. The SNe also had a large, but insignificant, difference between their peak absolute magnitudes (Delta M_V, peak = 0.60 +/- 0.36 mag), with SN 2011fe being more luminous. We present a new Cepheid-based distance to NGC 3972, significantly improving the precision of the distance measurement for SN 2011by. With these new data, we determine that the SNe have significantly different peak luminosities (Delta M_V, peak = 0.335 +/- 0.069 mag), corresponding to SN 2011fe having produced 38% more 56Ni than SN 2011by, and providing additional evidence for progenitor metallicity differences for these SNe. We discuss how progenitor metallicity differences can contribute to the intrinsic scatter for light-curve-shape-corrected SN luminosities, the use of "twin" SNe for measuring distances, and implications for using SNe Ia for constraining cosmological parameters., Comment: 10 pages, 6 figures, submitted to MNRAS

We present HST photometry of a selected sample of 50 long-period, low-extinction Milky Way Cepheids measured on the same WFC3 F555W, F814W, and F160W-band photometric system as extragalactic Cepheids in SN Ia hosts. These bright Cepheids were observed with the WFC3 spatial scanning mode in the optical and near-infrared to mitigate saturation and reduce pixel-to-pixel calibration errors to reach a mean photometric error of 5 millimags per observation. We use the new Gaia DR2 parallaxes and HST photometry to simultaneously constrain the cosmic distance scale and to measure the DR2 parallax zeropoint offset appropriate for Cepheids. We find a value for the zeropoint offset of -46 +/- 13 muas or +/- 6 muas for a fixed distance scale, higher than found from quasars, as expected, for these brighter and redder sources. The precision of the distance scale from DR2 has been reduced by a factor of 2.5 due to the need to independently determine the parallax offset. The best fit distance scale is 1.006 +/- 0.033, relative to the scale from Riess et al 2016 with H0=73.24 km/s/Mpc used to predict the parallaxes photometrically, and is inconsistent with the scale needed to match the Planck 2016 CMB data combined with LCDM at the 2.9 sigma confidence level (99.6%). At 96.5% confidence we find that the formal DR2 errors may be underestimated as indicated. We identify additional error associated with the use of augmented Cepheid samples utilizing ground-based photometry and discuss their likely origins. Including the DR2 parallaxes with all prior distance ladder data raises the current tension between the late and early Universe route to the Hubble constant to 3.8 sigma (99.99 %). With the final expected precision from Gaia, the sample of 50 Cepheids with HST photometry will limit to 0.5% the contribution of the first rung of the distance ladder to the uncertainty in the Hubble constant., Comment: accepted to ApJ, 14 pages, 7 figures

We present year-long, near-infrared Hubble Space Telescope WFC3 observations of Mira variables in the water megamaser host galaxy NGC 4258. Miras are AGB variables that can be divided into oxygen- (O-) and carbon- (C-) rich subclasses. Oxygen-rich Miras follow a tight (scatter $\sim 0.14$ mag) Period-Luminosity Relation (PLR) in the near-infrared and can be used to measure extragalactic distances. The water megamaser in NGC 4258 gives a geometric distance to the galaxy accurate to 2.6% that can serve to calibrate the Mira PLR. We develop criteria for detecting and classifying O-rich Miras with optical and NIR data as well as NIR data alone. In total, we discover 438 Mira candidates that we classify with high confidence as O-rich. Our most stringent criteria produce a sample of 139 Mira candidates that we use to measure a PLR. We use the OGLE-III sample of O-rich Miras in the LMC to obtain a relative distance modulus, $\mu_{4258} - \mu_{LMC} = 10.95 \pm 0.01 $ (statistical) $\pm 0.06 $ (systematic) mag in good agreement with the relative distance determined using Cepheids. These results demonstrate the feasibility of discovering and characterizing Miras using the near-infrared with the Hubble Space Telescope and the upcoming James Webb Space Telescope and using them to measure extragalactic distances and determine the Hubble constant., Comment: 19 pages, 19 figures

We present new parallax measurements of 7 long-period (> 10 days) Milky Way Cepheids (SS CMa, XY Car, VY Car, VX Per, WZ Sgr, X Pup and S Vul) using astrometry from spatial scanning of WFC3 on HST. Observations were obtained at 6 month intervals over 4 years. The distances are 1.7--3.6 kpc with a mean precision of 45 microarcseconds and a best of 29 microarcseconds (SNR = 14). The accuracy of the parallaxes is demonstrated through independent analyses of >100 reference stars. This raises to 10 the number of long-period Cepheids with significant parallax measurements, 8 obtained from this program. We also present high-precision F555W, F814W, and F160W magnitudes of these Cepheids, allowing a direct, zeropoint-independent comparison to >1800 extragalactic Cepheids in the hosts of 19 SNeIa. This sample addresses two outstanding systematic uncertainties affecting prior comparisons of Milky Way and extragalactic Cepheids used to calibrate H_0: their dissimilarity of periods and photometric systems. Comparing the new parallaxes to their predicted values derived from reversing the distance ladder gives a ratio (or independent scale for H_0) of 1.037+/-0.036, consistent with no change and inconsistent at the 3.5 sigma level with a ratio of 0.91 needed to match the value predicted by Planck+LCDM. Using these data instead to augment the Riess et al. (2016) measurement of H_0 improves the precision to 2.3%, yielding 73.48+/-1.66 km/s/Mpc, and tension with Planck+LCDM increases to 3.7 sigma. The future combination of Gaia parallaxes and HST spatial scanning photometry of 50 Milky Way Cepheids can support a < 1% calibration of H_0., Comment: accepted by ApJ, 15 pages of Text, 7 Tables, 13 Figures

We study the near-infrared properties of 690 Mira candidates in the central region of the Large Magellanic Cloud, based on time-series observations at JHKs. We use densely-sampled I-band observations from the OGLE project to generate template light curves in the near infrared and derive robust mean magnitudes at those wavelengths. We obtain near-infrared Period-Luminosity relations for Oxygen-rich Miras with a scatter as low as 0.12 mag at Ks. We study the Period-Luminosity-Color relations and the color excesses of Carbon-rich Miras, which show evidence for a substantially different reddening law., Comment: Accepted for publication in The Astronomical Journal

We present measurements of the velocity power spectrum and constraints on the growth rate of structure $f\sigma_{8}$, at redshift zero, using the peculiar motions of 2,062 galaxies in the completed 2MASS Tully-Fisher survey (2MTF). To accomplish this we introduce a model for fitting the velocity power spectrum including the effects of non-linear Redshift Space Distortions (RSD), allowing us to recover unbiased fits down to scales $k=0.2\,h\,{\rm Mpc}^{-1}$ without the need to smooth or grid the data. Our fitting methods are validated using a set of simulated 2MTF surveys. Using these simulations we also identify that the Gaussian distributed estimator for peculiar velocities of \cite{Watkins2015} is suitable for measuring the velocity power spectrum, but sub-optimal for the 2MTF data compared to using magnitude fluctuations $\delta m$, and that, whilst our fits are robust to a change in fiducial cosmology, future peculiar velocity surveys with more constraining power may have to marginalise over this. We obtain \textit{scale-dependent} constraints on the growth rate of structure in two bins, finding $f\sigma_{8} = [0.55^{+0.16}_{-0.13},0.40^{+0.16}_{-0.17}]$ in the ranges $k = [0.007-0.055, 0.55-0.150]\,h\,{\rm Mpc}^{-1}$. We also find consistent results using four bins. Assuming scale-\textit{independence} we find a value $f\sigma_{8} = 0.51^{+0.09}_{-0.08}$, a $\sim16\%$ measurement of the growth rate. Performing a consistency check of General Relativity (GR) and combining our results with CMB data only we find $\gamma = 0.45^{+0.10}_{-0.11}$, a remarkable constraint considering the small number of galaxies. All of our results are completely independent of the effects of galaxy bias, and fully consistent with the predictions of GR (scale-independent $f\sigma_{8}$ and $\gamma\approx0.55$)., Comment: 18 pages, 14 figures, 3 tables. Accepted for publication in MNRAS

We present the discovery of 1847 Mira candidates in the Local Group galaxy M33 using a novel semi-parametric periodogram technique coupled with a Random Forest classifier. The algorithms were applied to ~2.4x10^5 I-band light curves previously obtained by the M33 Synoptic Stellar Survey. We derive preliminary Period-Luminosity relations at optical, near- & mid-infrared wavelengths and compare them to the corresponding relations in the Large Magellanic Cloud., Comment: Includes small corrections to match the published version

We present time-series observations of Population \rom{2} Cepheids in the Large Magellanic Cloud at near-infrared ($JHK_s$) wavelengths. Our sample consists of 81 variables with accurate periods and optical ($VI$) magnitudes from the OGLE survey, covering various subtypes of pulsators (BL Herculis, W Virginis and RV Tauri). We generate light curve templates using high-quality $I$-band data in the LMC from OGLE and $K_s$-band data in the Galactic Bulge from VVV and use them to obtain robust mean magnitudes. We derive Period-Luminosity (P-L) relations in the near-infrared and Period-Wesenheit (P-W) relations by combining optical and near-infrared data. Our P-L and P-W relations are consistent with published work when excluding long-period RV Tauris. We find that Pop II Cepheids and RR Lyraes follow the same P-L relations in the LMC. Therefore, we use trigonometric parallax from the {\it Gaia DR1} for VY~Pyx and the {\it Hubble Space Telescope} parallaxes for $k$~Pav and 5 RR Lyrae variables to obtain an absolute calibration of the Galactic $K_s$-band P-L relation, resulting in a distance modulus to the LMC of $\mu_{\rm LMC} = 18.54\pm0.08$~mag. We update the mean magnitudes of Pop~II Cepheids in Galactic globular clusters using our light curve templates and obtain distance estimates to those systems, anchored to a precise late-type eclipsing binary distance to the LMC. We find the distances to these globular clusters based on Pop~II Cepheids are consistent (within $2\sigma$) with estimates based on the $M_V-[\rm{Fe}/\rm{H}]$ relation for horizontal branch stars., Comment: Accepted for publication in The Astronomical Journal

We develop a non-linear semi-parametric Gaussian process model to estimate periods of Miras with sparsely-sampled light curves. The model uses a sinusoidal basis for the periodic variation and a Gaussian process for the stochastic changes. We use maximum likelihood to estimate the period and the parameters of the Gaussian process, while integrating out the effects of other nuisance parameters in the model with respect to a suitable prior distribution obtained from earlier studies. Since the likelihood is highly multimodal for period, we implement a hybrid method that applies the quasi-Newton algorithm for Gaussian process parameters and search the period/frequency parameter over a dense grid. A large-scale, high-fidelity simulation is conducted to mimic the sampling quality of Mira light curves obtained by the M33 Synoptic Stellar Survey. The simulated data set is publicly available and can serve as a testbed for future evaluation of different period estimation methods. The semi-parametric model outperforms an existing algorithm on this simulated test data set as measured by period recovery rate and quality of the resulting Period-Luminosity relations., Comment: Changes in v3: minor edits to match the published version. Software package and test data set available at http://github.com/shiyuanhe/varStar

We present results of an optical search for Cepheid variable stars using the Hubble Space Telescope (HST) in 19 hosts of Type Ia supernovae (SNe Ia) and the maser-host galaxy NGC 4258, conducted as part of the SH0ES project (Supernovae and H0 for the Equation of State of dark energy). The targets include 9 newly imaged SN Ia hosts using a novel strategy based on a long-pass filter that minimizes the number of HST orbits required to detect and accurately determine Cepheid properties. We carried out a homogeneous reduction and analysis of all observations, including new universal variability searches in all SN Ia hosts, that yielded a total of 2200 variables with well-defined selection criteria -- the largest such sample identified outside the Local Group. These objects are used in a companion paper to determine the local value of H0 with a total uncertainty of 2.4%., Comment: ApJ, in press. v2 adds missing co-author to arXiv metadata and text in acknowledgments

We present the results of the optical follow-up conducted by the TOROS collaboration of the first gravitational-wave event GW150914. We conducted unfiltered CCD observations (0.35-1 micron) with the 1.5-m telescope at Bosque Alegre starting ~2.5 days after the alarm. Given our limited field of view (~100 square arcmin), we targeted 14 nearby galaxies that were observable from the site and were located within the area of higher localization probability. We analyzed the observations using two independent implementations of difference-imaging algorithms, followed by a Random-Forest-based algorithm to discriminate between real and bogus transients. We did not find any bona fide transient event in the surveyed area down to a 5-sigma limiting magnitude of r=21.7 mag (AB). Our result is consistent with the LIGO detection of a binary black hole merger, for which no electromagnetic counterparts are expected, and with the expected rates of other astrophysical transients., Comment: ApJ Letters, in press