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A recent historical marine ecological case study (cod in the eastern Baltic Sea) is used to show how long-term data and knowledge of fluctuations can contribute to revisions of fishery management policy. The case study first developed new longer analytical time series of spawner biomass and recruitment back to the 1920s, which extended knowledge of population dynamics into a time period when ecosystem state was characterized by temporally varying combinations of exploitation, climate-hydrographic conditions, marine mammal predation and eutrophication. Recovery of spatially resolved historical catch data from the late 1500s to early 1600s also contributed new perspectives to cod population dynamics under alternative ecosystem forcings. These new perspectives have contributed, and will likely continue to contribute to new management policies (e.g., revision of fishery management reference points), which should lead to higher sustainability of the population and fishery yields, and improved overall ecosystem health. These perspectives will likely continue to provide baseline information as ICES and the EU develop new policies based on maximum sustainable yield concepts.

Fish populations are increasingly affected by multiple human and natural impacts including exploitation, eutrophication, habitat alteration and climate change. As a result many collapsed populations may have to recover in ecosystems whose structure and functioning differ from those in which they were formerly productive and supported sustainable fisheries. Here we investigate how a cod (Gadus morhua) population in the Baltic Sea whose biomass was reduced due to a combination of high exploitation and deteriorating environmental conditions might recover and develop in the 21st century in an ecosystem that likely will change due to both the already started recovery of a cod predator, the grey seal Halichoerus grypus, and projected climate impacts. Simulation modelling, assuming increased seal predation, fishing levels consistent with management plan targets and stable salinity, shows that the cod population could reach high levels well above the long-term average. Scenarios with similar seal and fishing levels but with 15% lower salinity suggest that the Baltic will still be able to support a cod population which can sustain a fishery, but biomass and yields will be lower. At present knowledge of cod and seal interactions, seal predation was found to have much lower impact on cod recovery, compared to the effects of exploitation and salinity. These results suggest that dual management objectives (recovery of both seal and cod populations) are realistic but success in achieving these goals will also depend on how climate change affects cod recruitment.

A recent historical marine ecological case study (cod in the eastern Baltic Sea) is used to show how long-term data and knowledge of fluctuations can contribute to revisions of fishery management policy. The case study first developed new longer analytical time series of spawner biomass and recruitment back to the 1920s, which extended knowledge of population dynamics into a time period when ecosystem state was characterized by temporally varying combinations of exploitation, climate-hydrographic conditions, marine mammal predation and eutrophication. Recovery of spatially resolved historical catch data from the late 1500s to early 1600s also contributed new perspectives to cod population dynamics under alternative ecosystem forcings. These new perspectives have contributed, and will likely continue to contribute to new management policies (e.g., revision of fishery management reference points), which should lead to higher sustainability of the population and fishery yields, and improved overall ecosystem health. These perspectives will likely continue to provide baseline information as ICES and the EU develop new policies based on maximum sustainable yield concepts.

Fish populations are increasingly affected by multiple human and natural impacts including exploitation, eutrophication, habitat alteration and climate change. As a result many collapsed populations may have to recover in ecosystems whose structure and functioning differ from those in which they were formerly productive and supported sustainable fisheries. Here we investigate how a cod (Gadus morhua) population in the Baltic Sea whose biomass was reduced due to a combination of high exploitation and deteriorating environmental conditions might recover and develop in the 21st century in an ecosystem that likely will change due to both the already started recovery of a cod predator, the grey seal Halichoerus grypus, and projected climate impacts. Simulation modelling, assuming increased seal predation, fishing levels consistent with management plan targets and stable salinity, shows that the cod population could reach high levels well above the long-term average. Scenarios with similar seal and fishing levels but with 15% lower salinity suggest that the Baltic will still be able to support a cod population which can sustain a fishery, but biomass and yields will be lower. At present knowledge of cod and seal interactions, seal predation was found to have much lower impact on cod recovery, compared to the effects of exploitation and salinity. These results suggest that dual management objectives (recovery of both seal and cod populations) are realistic but success in achieving these goals will also depend on how climate change affects cod recruitment.

A recent historical marine ecological case study (cod in the eastern Baltic Sea) is used to show how long-term data and knowledge of fluctuations can contribute to revisions of fishery management policy. The case study first developed new longer analytical time series of spawner biomass and recruitment back to the 1920s, which extended knowledge of population dynamics into a time period when ecosystem state was characterized by temporally varying combinations of exploitation, climate-hydrographic conditions, marine mammal predation and eutrophication. Recovery of spatially resolved historical catch data from the late 1500s to early 1600s also contributed new perspectives to cod population dynamics under alternative ecosystem forcings. These new perspectives have contributed, and will likely continue to contribute to new management policies (e.g., revision of fishery management reference points), which should lead to higher sustainability of the population and fishery yields, and improved overall ecosystem health. These perspectives will likely continue to provide baseline information as ICES and the EU develop new policies based on maximum sustainable yield concepts.

Fish populations are increasingly affected by multiple human and natural impacts including exploitation, eutrophication, habitat alteration and climate change. As a result many collapsed populations may have to recover in ecosystems whose structure and functioning differ from those in which they were formerly productive and supported sustainable fisheries. Here we investigate how a cod (Gadus morhua) population in the Baltic Sea whose biomass was reduced due to a combination of high exploitation and deteriorating environmental conditions might recover and develop in the 21st century in an ecosystem that likely will change due to both the already started recovery of a cod predator, the grey seal Halichoerus grypus, and projected climate impacts. Simulation modelling, assuming increased seal predation, fishing levels consistent with management plan targets and stable salinity, shows that the cod population could reach high levels well above the long-term average. Scenarios with similar seal and fishing levels but with 15% lower salinity suggest that the Baltic will still be able to support a cod population which can sustain a fishery, but biomass and yields will be lower. At present knowledge of cod and seal interactions, seal predation was found to have much lower impact on cod recovery, compared to the effects of exploitation and salinity. These results suggest that dual management objectives (recovery of both seal and cod populations) are realistic but success in achieving these goals will also depend on how climate change affects cod recruitment.

Understanding how temperature affects cod (Gadus morhua) ecology is important for forecasting how populations will develop as climate changes in future. The effects of spawning-season temperature and habitat size on cod recruitment dynamics have been investigated across the North Atlantic. Ricker and Beverton and Holt stock - recruitment (SR) models were extended by applying hierarchical methods, mixed-effects models, and Bayesian inference to incorporate the influence of these ecosystem factors on model parameters representing cod maximum reproductive rate and carrying capacity. We identified the pattern of temperature effects on cod productivity at the species level and estimated SR model parameters with increased precision. Temperature impacts vary geographically, being positive in areas where temperatures are

Understanding how temperature affects cod (Gadus morhua) ecology is important for forecasting how populations will develop as climate changes in future. The effects of spawning-season temperature and habitat size on cod recruitment dynamics have been investigated across the North Atlantic. Ricker and Beverton and Holt stock - recruitment (SR) models were extended by applying hierarchical methods, mixed-effects models, and Bayesian inference to incorporate the influence of these ecosystem factors on model parameters representing cod maximum reproductive rate and carrying capacity. We identified the pattern of temperature effects on cod productivity at the species level and estimated SR model parameters with increased precision. Temperature impacts vary geographically, being positive in areas where temperatures are

Understanding how temperature affects cod (Gadus morhua) ecology is important for forecasting how populations will develop as climate changes in future. The effects of spawning-season temperature and habitat size on cod recruitment dynamics have been investigated across the North Atlantic. Ricker and Beverton and Holt stock - recruitment (SR) models were extended by applying hierarchical methods, mixed-effects models, and Bayesian inference to incorporate the influence of these ecosystem factors on model parameters representing cod maximum reproductive rate and carrying capacity. We identified the pattern of temperature effects on cod productivity at the species level and estimated SR model parameters with increased precision. Temperature impacts vary geographically, being positive in areas where temperatures are

Understanding how temperature affects cod (Gadus morhua) ecology is important for forecasting how populations will develop as climate changes in future. The effects of spawning-season temperature and habitat size on cod recruitment dynamics have been investigated across the North Atlantic. Ricker and Beverton and Holt stock - recruitment (SR) models were extended by applying hierarchical methods, mixed-effects models, and Bayesian inference to incorporate the influence of these ecosystem factors on model parameters representing cod maximum reproductive rate and carrying capacity. We identified the pattern of temperature effects on cod productivity at the species level and estimated SR model parameters with increased precision. Temperature impacts vary geographically, being positive in areas where temperatures are