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3. What evidence exists for temporal variability in Arctic terrestrial and freshwater biodiversity throughout the Holocene? A systematic map protocol

Author

Martin, AC, Assmann, JJ, Bradshaw, RHW, Kuoppamaa, M, Kuosmanen, NI, Normand, S, Speed, JDM, Macias-Fauria, M, and Department of Geosciences and Geography

Subjects
1171 Geosciences, Ecology, Management, Monitoring, Policy and Law, Pollution
Abstract

Background The Arctic tundra is subject to the greatest climate change-induced temperature rises of any biome. Both terrestrial and freshwater biota are responding to recent climate warming through variability in their distribution, abundance, and richness. However, uncertainty arises within models of future change when considering processes that operate over centennial timescales. A systematic evidence synthesis of centennial-scale variability in biodiversity does not currently exist for the Arctic biome. Here, we sought to address the primary research question: what evidence exists for temporal variability in Arctic terrestrial and freshwater biodiversity throughout the Holocene (11,650 years before present (yBP)—0yBP)? Methods Consultation with stakeholders informed key definitions, scoping and the appropriateness of the research question. The research question was structured using a PECO framework—Arctic biota (P), a timestamped year in the Holocene (E), another year in the Holocene (C), and the dimensions of biodiversity that have been measured (O)—to inform the search strategy. Search strings were benchmarked against a test list of 100 known sources to ensure a specific and comprehensive return of literature. Searches will occur across 13 bibliographic databases. The eligibility criteria specify that sources must: (a) use ‘proxy’ methods to measure biodiversity; (b) fall within the spatial extent of the contemporary Arctic tundra biome; and (c) consist of a time-series that overlaps with 11,650yBP to 0yBP (1950AD). Information coded from studies will include proxy-specific information to account for both temporal uncertainty (i.e., the characteristics of age-depth models and dating methods) and taxonomic uncertainty (i.e., the samples and processes used for taxonomic identification). We will assess temporal uncertainty within each source by determining the quality of dating methods and measures; this information will be used to harmonise dates onto the IntCal20 calibration curve and determine the available temporal resolution and extent of evidence through space. Key outputs of this systematic map will be: (1) a graph database containing the spatial–temporal properties of each study dataset with taxonomic harmonisation; and (2) a geographical map of the evidence base.

Published
2022

5. A Song of Wind and Ice: Increased Frequency of Marine ColdSpells in Southwestern Patagonia and Their Possible Effects on Giant Kelp Forests.

Author

Mora-Soto, A., Aguirre, C., Iriarte, J. L., Palacios, M., Macaya, E. C., and Macias-Fauria, M.

Subjects
GIANT kelp, MACROCYSTIS, OCEAN temperature, LA Nina, GLACIAL melting, COLD regions, SOUTHERN oscillation
Abstract

In contrast to other coastal regions of the world, the giant kelp (Macrocystis pyrifera) ecosystem in southwestern Patagonia has been persistent in area and associated biodiversity in the last decades. In this ecoregion, sea surface temperature (SST) records have consistently remained below the upper thermal threshold for kelp survival, however, no studies have analyzed the spatiotemporal variability of SSTs and their anomalies across the geographical diversity of the southwestern Patagonian coastline. We explored the geographical distribution of extreme warm and cold events in this region from latitudes 47°-56°S in a range of ∼1,000 km, identifying the dates and spatial distribution of marine heatwaves (MHWs) and marine cold-spells (MCSs) from 1982 to 2020. Results show that a peak in the number of MHWs occurred in the great El Niño year of 1998. Additionally, the 2014-2019 period has had more severe and extreme MCSs than the previous decades. We discuss the origin of these events with a focus on three main processes: (a) geographically constrained cold events caused by glacier melting, (b) regional cold events caused by extreme winds linked to the position of the polar front, and (c) extensive SST anomalies linked to planetary-scale events such as El Niño and La Niña. Overall, those processes were conductive to counteract global warming trends locally/regionally, highlighting southwestern Patagonia as a possible climatic refugium for the giant kelp ecosystem. Despite this, the effects of freshwater inputs and storm turbulence on the exposed coasts facing the Southern Ocean may cause new kinds of stress on this ecosystem. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Published
2022
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6. Summer warming explains widespread but not uniform greening in the Arctic tundra biome

Author

Berner, L, Massey, R, Jantz, P, Forbes, BC, Macias Fauria, M, Myers-Smith, I, Kumpula, T, Gauthier, G, Andreu-Hayles, L, Gaglioti, BV, Burns, P, Zetterberg, P, D'Arrigo, R, and Goetz, SJ

Subjects
Arctic Regions, Science, Climate Change, Temperature, Plant Development, Plants, Article, Soil, lcsh:Q, Seasons, Plant ecology, Macroecology, lcsh:Science, Tundra, Climate-change impacts, Ecosystem, Environmental Monitoring, Ecological modelling
Abstract

Arctic warming can influence tundra ecosystem function with consequences for climate feedbacks, wildlife and human communities. Yet ecological change across the Arctic tundra biome remains poorly quantified due to field measurement limitations and reliance on coarse-resolution satellite data. Here, we assess decadal changes in Arctic tundra greenness using time series from the 30 m resolution Landsat satellites. From 1985 to 2016 tundra greenness increased (greening) at ~37.3% of sampling sites and decreased (browning) at ~4.7% of sampling sites. Greening occurred most often at warm sampling sites with increased summer air temperature, soil temperature, and soil moisture, while browning occurred most often at cold sampling sites that cooled and dried. Tundra greenness was positively correlated with graminoid, shrub, and ecosystem productivity measured at field sites. Our results support the hypothesis that summer warming stimulated plant productivity across much, but not all, of the Arctic tundra biome during recent decades., Satellites provide clear evidence of greening trends in the Arctic, but high-resolution pan-Arctic quantification of these trends is lacking. Here the authors analyse high-resolution Landsat data to show widespread greening in the Arctic, and find that greening trends are linked to summer warming overall but not always locally.

Published
2020

7. The handbook for standardized field and laboratory measurements in terrestrial climate change experiments and observational studies (ClimEx)

Author

Halbritter, A.H., De, Boeck, H.J., Eycott, A.E., Reinsch, S., Robinson, D.A., Vicca, S., Berauer, B., Christiansen, C.T., Estiarte, M., Grünzweig, J.M., Gya, R., Hansen, K., Jentsch, A., Lee, H., Linder, S., Marshall, J., Peñuelas, J., Kappel, Schmidt, I., Stuart-Haëntjens, E., Wilfahrt, P., Vandvik, V., Abrantes, N., Almagro, M., Althuizen, I.H.J., Barrio, I.C., Te, Beest, M., Beier, C., Beil, I., Carter, Berry, Z., Birkemoe, T., Bjerke, J.W., Blonder, B., Blume-Werry, G., Bohrer, G., Campos, I., Cernusak, L.A., Chojnicki, B.H., Cosby, B.J., Dickman, L.T., Djukic, I., Filella, I., Fuchslueger, L., Gargallo-Garriga, A., Gillespie, M.A.K., Goldsmith, G.R., Gough, C., Halliday, F.W., Hegland, S.J., Hoch, G., Holub, P., Jaroszynska, F., Johnson, D.M., Jones, S.B., Kardol, P., Keizer, J.J., Klem, K., Konestabo, H.S., Kreyling, J., Kröel-Dulay, G., Landhäusser, S.M., Larsen, K.S., Leblans, N., Lebron, I., Lehmann, M.M., Lembrechts, J.J., Lenz, A., Linstädter, A., Llusià, J., Macias-Fauria, M., Malyshev, A.V., Mänd, P., Marshall, M., Matheny, A.M., McDowell, N., Meier, I.C., Meinzer, F.C., Michaletz, S.T., Miller, M.L., Muffler, L., Oravec, M., Ostonen, I., Porcar Castell, Albert, Preece, C., Prentice, I.C., Radujkovic, D., Ravolainen, V., Ribbons, R., Ruppert, J.C., Sack, L., Sardans, J., Schindlbacher, A., Scoffoni, C., Sigurdsson, B.D., Smart, S., Smith, S.W., Soper, F., Speed, J.D.M., Sverdrup-Thygeson, A., Sydenham, M.A.K., Taghizadeh-Toosi, A., Telford, R.J., Tielbörger, K., Töpper, J.P., Urban, O., Van der, Ploeg, M., Van Langenhove, L., Vecerová, K., Ven, A., Verbruggen, E., Vik, U., Weigel, R., Wohlgemuth, T., Wood, L.K., Zinnert, J., Zurba, K., the, ClimMani, Working, Group, Halbritter, A.H., De, Boeck, H.J., Eycott, A.E., Reinsch, S., Robinson, D.A., Vicca, S., Berauer, B., Christiansen, C.T., Estiarte, M., Grünzweig, J.M., Gya, R., Hansen, K., Jentsch, A., Lee, H., Linder, S., Marshall, J., Peñuelas, J., Kappel, Schmidt, I., Stuart-Haëntjens, E., Wilfahrt, P., Vandvik, V., Abrantes, N., Almagro, M., Althuizen, I.H.J., Barrio, I.C., Te, Beest, M., Beier, C., Beil, I., Carter, Berry, Z., Birkemoe, T., Bjerke, J.W., Blonder, B., Blume-Werry, G., Bohrer, G., Campos, I., Cernusak, L.A., Chojnicki, B.H., Cosby, B.J., Dickman, L.T., Djukic, I., Filella, I., Fuchslueger, L., Gargallo-Garriga, A., Gillespie, M.A.K., Goldsmith, G.R., Gough, C., Halliday, F.W., Hegland, S.J., Hoch, G., Holub, P., Jaroszynska, F., Johnson, D.M., Jones, S.B., Kardol, P., Keizer, J.J., Klem, K., Konestabo, H.S., Kreyling, J., Kröel-Dulay, G., Landhäusser, S.M., Larsen, K.S., Leblans, N., Lebron, I., Lehmann, M.M., Lembrechts, J.J., Lenz, A., Linstädter, A., Llusià, J., Macias-Fauria, M., Malyshev, A.V., Mänd, P., Marshall, M., Matheny, A.M., McDowell, N., Meier, I.C., Meinzer, F.C., Michaletz, S.T., Miller, M.L., Muffler, L., Oravec, M., Ostonen, I., Porcar Castell, Albert, Preece, C., Prentice, I.C., Radujkovic, D., Ravolainen, V., Ribbons, R., Ruppert, J.C., Sack, L., Sardans, J., Schindlbacher, A., Scoffoni, C., Sigurdsson, B.D., Smart, S., Smith, S.W., Soper, F., Speed, J.D.M., Sverdrup-Thygeson, A., Sydenham, M.A.K., Taghizadeh-Toosi, A., Telford, R.J., Tielbörger, K., Töpper, J.P., Urban, O., Van der, Ploeg, M., Van Langenhove, L., Vecerová, K., Ven, A., Verbruggen, E., Vik, U., Weigel, R., Wohlgemuth, T., Wood, L.K., Zinnert, J., Zurba, K., and the, ClimMani, Working, Group

Abstract

Climate change is a world-wide threat to biodiversity and ecosystem structure, functioning and services. To understand the underlying drivers and mechanisms, and to predict the consequences for nature and people, we urgently need better understanding of the direction and magnitude of climate change impacts across the soil plant atmosphere continuum. An increasing number of climate change studies are creating new opportunities for meaningful and high-quality generalizations and improved process understanding. However, significant challenges exist related to data availability and/or compatibility across studies, compromising opportunities for data re-use, synthesis and upscaling. Many of these challenges relate to a lack of an established best practice for measuring key impacts and responses. This restrains our current understanding of complex processes and mechanisms in terrestrial ecosystems related to climate change. To overcome these challenges, we collected best-practice methods emerging from major ecological research networks and experiments, as synthesized by 115 experts from across a wide range of scientific disciplines. Our handbook contains guidance on the selection of response variables for different purposes, protocols for standardized measurements of 66 such response variables and advice on data management. Specifically, we recommend a minimum subset of variables that should be collected in all climate change studies to allow data re-use and synthesis, and give guidance on additional variables critical for different types of synthesis and upscaling. The goal of this community effort is to facilitate awareness of the importance and broader application of standardized methods to promote data re-use, availability, compatibility and transparency. We envision improved research practices that will increase returns on investments in individual research projects, facilitate second-order research outputs and create opportunities for collaboration across scientific

Published
2020

8. Divergence of Arctic shrub growth associated with sea ice decline

Author

Buchwal, A. (Agata), Sullivan, P. F. (Patrick F.), Macias-Fauria, M. (Marc), Post, E. (Eric), Myers-Smith, I. H. (Isla H.), Stroeve, J. C. (Julienne C.), Blok, D. (Daan), Tape, K. D. (Ken D.), Forbes, B. C. (Bruce C.), Ropars, P. (Pascale), Lévesque, E. (Esther), Elberling, B. (Bo), Angers-Blondin, S. (Sandra), Boyle, J. S. (Joseph S.), Boudreau, S. (Stéphane), Boulanger-Lapointe, N. (Noémie), Gamm, C. (Cassandra), Hallinger, M. (Martin), Rachlewicz, G. (Grzegorz), Young, A. (Amanda), Zetterberg, P. (Pentti), Welker, J. M. (Jeffrey M.), Buchwal, A. (Agata), Sullivan, P. F. (Patrick F.), Macias-Fauria, M. (Marc), Post, E. (Eric), Myers-Smith, I. H. (Isla H.), Stroeve, J. C. (Julienne C.), Blok, D. (Daan), Tape, K. D. (Ken D.), Forbes, B. C. (Bruce C.), Ropars, P. (Pascale), Lévesque, E. (Esther), Elberling, B. (Bo), Angers-Blondin, S. (Sandra), Boyle, J. S. (Joseph S.), Boudreau, S. (Stéphane), Boulanger-Lapointe, N. (Noémie), Gamm, C. (Cassandra), Hallinger, M. (Martin), Rachlewicz, G. (Grzegorz), Young, A. (Amanda), Zetterberg, P. (Pentti), and Welker, J. M. (Jeffrey M.)

Abstract

Arctic sea ice extent (SIE) is declining at an accelerating rate with a wide range of ecological consequences. However, determining sea ice effects on tundra vegetation remains a challenge. In this study, we examined the universality or lack thereof in tundra shrub growth responses to changes in SIE and summer climate across the Pan-Arctic, taking advantage of 23 tundra shrub-ring chronologies from 19 widely distributed sites (56°N to 83°N). We show a clear divergence in shrub growth responses to SIE that began in the mid-1990s, with 39% of the chronologies showing declines and 57% showing increases in radial growth (decreasers and increasers, respectively). Structural equation models revealed that declining SIE was associated with rising air temperature and precipitation for increasers and with increasingly dry conditions for decreasers. Decreasers tended to be from areas of the Arctic with lower summer precipitation and their growth decline was related to decreases in the standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index. Our findings suggest that moisture limitation, associated with declining SIE, might inhibit the positive effects of warming on shrub growth over a considerable part of the terrestrial Arctic, thereby complicating predictions of vegetation change and future tundra productivity.

Published
2020

9. The devil is in the detail: unstable response functions in species distribution models challenge bulk ensemble modelling

Author

Hannemann, H, Willis, K, and Macias-Fauria, M

Abstract

Aim: Species distribution models (SDMs) are commonly used to determine threats to biodiversity and opportunities under climate change. Despite SDMs being based on the assumption of complete knowledge of the climate space of the modelled species, truncated occurrence datasets (and hence truncated climate spaces) such as national inventories are often employed. This may lead to prediction errors, which have been proposed to stem from: (1) the degree of climate space truncation and/or (2) instability of the modelling algorithms. Our aim was to explore the potential causes of prediction errors in SDMs using truncated training datasets. Location: Europe 11° W–32° E, 34°–72° N. Methods: SDMs employing commonly used bioclimatic variables were applied to seven forest tree species. We created two model training datasets covering: (1) Germany only (significantly truncated climate space) and (2) Europe (minimally truncated climate space). Differences between the climate space represented by Germany‐only and European data were measured on two‐dimensional climate spaces obtained through principal component analysis of the bioclimatic variables. Seven SDM algorithms were run, and the stability of the response function and variable selection for each species and model type were analysed. Results: The degree of climate space truncation was less important for model performance than the instability of model algorithms and indiscriminate variable selection. The latter led to irrelevant relationships of species occurrence with bioclimatic variables. These instabilities caused pronounced prediction errors. Main conclusions: Our results strongly suggest that erroneous model predictions stem from instability and ecological irrelevance of the statistical functions relating the probability of a species' occurrence to bioclimatic variables, compounded by a lack of consistency in variable selection. Models displaying these characteristics showed lower overall performance when trained with truncated datasets. Further, commonly used ensemble approaches do not compensate for the shortfalls of individual models. Detailed model‐by‐model and species‐by‐species analysis of response functions and variable importance is recommended.

Published
2019

10. State of the climate in 2017

Author

Abernethy, R., Ackerman, Steven A., Adler, R., Albanil Encarnación, Adelina, Aldeco, Laura S., Alfaro, Eric J., Aliaga-Nestares, Vannia, Allan, Richard P., Allan, Rob, Alves, Lincoln M., Amador, Jorge A., Anderson, John, Andreassen, L. M., Argüez, Anthony, Armitage, C., Arndt, Derek S., Avalos, Grinia, Azorin-Molina, César, Báez, Julián, Bardin, M. Yu, Barichivich, Jonathan, Baringer, Molly O., Barreira, Sandra, Baxter, Stephen, Beck, H. E., Becker, Andreas, Bedka, Kristopher M., Behe, Carolina, Bell, Gerald D., Bellouin, Nicolas, Belmont, M., Benedetti, Angela, Bernhard, G. H., Berrisford, Paul, Berry, David I., Bhatt, U. S., Bissolli, Peter, Bjerke, J., Blake, Eric S., Blenkinsop, Stephen, Blunden, Jessica, Bolmgren, K., Bosilovich, Michael G., Boucher, Olivier, Bouchon, Marilú, Box, J. E., Boyer, Tim, Braathen, Geir O., Bromwich, David H., Brown, R., Buehler, S., Bulygina, Olga N., Burgess, D., Calderón, Blanca, Camargo, Suzana J., Campbell, Ethan C., Campbell, Jayaka D., Cappelen, J., Carrea, Laura, Carter, Brendan R., Castro, Anabel, Chambers, Don P., Cheng, Lijing, Christiansen, Hanne H., Christy, John R., Chung, E. S., Clem, Kyle R., Coelho, Caio A.S., Coldewey-Egbers, Melanie, Colwell, Steve, Cooper, Owen R., Copland, L., Costanza, Carol, Covey, Curt, Coy, Lawrence, Cronin, T., Crouch, Jake, Cruzado, Luis, Daniel, Raychelle, Davis, Sean M., Davletshin, S. G., De Eyto, Elvira, De Jeu, Richard A.M., De La Cour, Jacqueline L., De Laat, Jos, De Gasperi, Curtis L., Degenstein, Doug, Deline, P., Demircan, Mesut, Derksen, C., Dewitte, Boris, Dhurmea, R., Di Girolamo, Larry, Diamond, Howard J., Dickerson, C., Dlugokencky, Ed J., Dohan, Kathleen, Dokulil, Martin T., Dolman, A. Johannes, Domingues, Catia M., Domingues, Ricardo, Donat, Markus G., Dong, Shenfu, Dorigo, Wouter A., Drozdov, D. S., Dunn, Robert J.H., Durre, Imke, Dutton, Geoff S., Eakin, C. Mark, El Kharrim, M., Elkins, James W., Epstein, H. E., Espinoza, Jhan C., Famiglietti, James S., Farmer, J., Farrell, S., Fauchald, P., Fausto, R. S., Feely, Richard A., Feng, Z., Fenimore, Chris, Fettweis, X., Fioletov, Vitali E., Flemming, Johannes, Fogt, Ryan L., Folland, Chris, Forbes, B. C., Foster, Michael J., Francis, S. D., Franz, Bryan A., Frey, Richard A., Frith, Stacey M., Froidevaux, Lucien, Ganter, Catherine, Geiger, Erick F., Gerland, S., Gilson, John, Gobron, Nadine, Goldenberg, Stanley B., Gomez, Andrea M., Goni, Gustavo, Grooß, Jens Uwe, Gruber, Alexander, Guard, Charles P., Gugliemin, Mario, Gupta, S. K., Gutiérrez, Dimitri, Haas, C., Hagos, S., Hahn, Sebastian, Haimberger, Leo, Hall, Brad D., Halpert, Michael S., Hamlington, Benjamin D., Hanna, E., Hansen, K., Hanssen-Bauer, L., Harris, Ian, Hartfield, Gail, Heidinger, Andrew K., Heim, Richard R., Helfrich, S., Hemming, D. L., Hendricks, S., Hernández, Rafael, Hernández, Sosa Marieta, Heron, Scott F., Heuzé, C., Hidalgo, Hugo G., Ho, Shu Peng, Hobbs, William R., Horstkotte, T., Huang, Boyin, Hubert, Daan, Hueuzé, Céline, Hurst, Dale F., Ialongo, Iolanda, Ibrahim, M. M., Ijampy, J. A., Inness, Antje, Isaac, Victor, Isaksen, K., Ishii, Masayoshi, Jacobs, Stephanie J., Jeffries, Martin O., Jevrejeva, Svetlana, Jiménez, C., Jin, Xiangze, John, Viju, Johns, William E., Johnsen, Bjørn, Johnson, Bryan, Johnson, Gregory C., Johnson, Kenneth S., Jones, Philip D., Jumaux, Guillaume, Kabidi, Khadija, Kaiser, J. W., Karaköylü, Erdem M., Kato, Seiji, Kazemi, A., Keller, Linda M., Kennedy, John, Kerr, Kenneth, Khan, M. S., Kholodov, A. L., Khoshkam, Mahbobeh, Killick, Rachel, Kim, Hyungjun, Kim, S. J., Klotzbach, Philip J., Knaff, John A., Kohler, J., Korhonen, Johanna, Korshunova, Natalia N., Kramarova, Natalya, Kratz, D. P., Kruger, Andries, Kruk, Michael C., Krumpen, T., Ladd, C., Lakatos, Mónika, Lakkala, Kaisa, Lander, Mark A., Landschützer, Peter, Landsea, Chris W., Lankhorst, Matthias, Lavado-Casimiro, Waldo, Lazzara, Matthew A., Lee, S. E., Lee, T. C., Leuliette, Eric, L'Heureux, Michelle, Li, Tim, Lieser, Jan L., Lin, I. I., Mears, Carl A., Liu, Gang, Li, Bailing, Liu, Hongxing, Locarnini, Ricardo, Loeb, Norman G., Long, Craig S., López, Luis A., Lorrey, Andrew M., Loyola, Diego, Lumpkin, Rick, Luo, Jing Jia, Luojus, K., Luthcke, S., Macias-Fauria, M., Malkova, G. V., Manney, Gloria L., Marcellin, Vernie, Marchenko, S. S., Marengo, José A., Marín, Dora, Marra, John J., Marszelewski, Wlodzimierz, Martens, B., Martin, A., Martínez, Alejandra G., Martínez-Güingla, Rodney, Martínez-Sánchez, Odalys, Marsh, Benjamin L., Lyman, John M., Massom, Robert A., May, Linda, Mayer, Michael, Mazloff, Matthew, McBride, Charlotte, McCabe, M. F., McCarthy, Mark, Meier, W., Meijers, Andrew J.S., Mekonnen, Ademe, Mengistu Tsidu, G., Menzel, W. Paul, Merchant, Christopher J., Meredith, Michael P., Merrifield, Mark A., Miller, Ben, Miralles, Diego G., Mitchum, Gary T., Mitro, Sukarni, Moat, Ben, Mochizuki, Y., Monselesan, Didier, Montzka, Stephen A., Mora, Natalie, Morice, Colin, Mosquera-Vásquez, Kobi, Mostafa, Awatif E., Mote, T., Mudryk, L., Mühle, Jens, Mullan, A. Brett, Müller, Rolf, Myneni, R., Nash, Eric R., Nerem, R. Steven, Newman, L., Newman, Paul A., Nielsen-Gammon, John W., Nieto, Juan José, Noetzli, Jeannette, Noll, Ben E., O'Neel, S., Osborn, Tim J., Osborne, Emily, Overland, J., Oyunjargal, Lamjav, Park, T., Pasch, Richard J., Pascual-Ramírez, Reynaldo, Pastor Saavedra, Maria Asuncion, Paterson, Andrew M., Paulik, Christoph, Pearce, Petra R., Peltier, Alexandre, Pelto, Mauri S., Peng, Liang, Perkins-Kirkpatrick, Sarah E., Perovich, Don, Petropavlovskikh, Irina, Pezza, Alexandre B., Phillips, C., Phillips, David, Phoenix, G., Pinty, Bernard, Pinzon, J., Po-Chedley, S., Polashenski, C., Purkey, Sarah G., Quispe, Nelson, Rajeevan, Madhavan, Rakotoarimalala, C., Rayner, Darren, Raynolds, M. K., Reagan, James, Reid, Phillip, Reimer, Christoph, Rémy, Samuel, Revadekar, Jayashree V., Richardson, A. D., Richter-Menge, Jacqueline, Ricker, R., Rimmer, Alon, Robinson, David A., Rodell, Matthew, Rodriguez Camino, Ernesto, Romanovsky, Vladimir E., Ronchail, Josyane, Rosenlof, Karen H., Rösner, Benjamin, Roth, Chris, Roth, David Mark, Rusak, James A., Rutishäuser, T., Sallée, Jean Bapiste, Sánchez-Lugo, Ahira, Santee, Michelle L., Sasgen, L., Sawaengphokhai, P., Sayad, T. A., Sayouri, Amal, Scambos, Ted A., Scanlon, T., Schenzinger, Verena, Schladow, S. Geoffrey, Schmid, Claudia, Schmid, Martin, Schreck, Carl J., Selkirk, H. B., Send, Uwe, Sensoy, Serhat, Sharp, M., Shi, Lei, Shiklomanov, Nikolai I., Shimaraeva, Svetlana V., Siegel, David A., Silow, Eugene, Sima, Fatou, Simmons, Adrian J., Skirving, William J., Smeed, David A., Smeets, C. J.P.P., Smith, Adam, Smith, Sharon L., Soden, B., Sofieva, Viktoria, Sparks, T. H., Spence, Jacqueline M., Spillane, Sandra, Srivastava, A. K., Stackhouse, Paul W., Stammerjohn, Sharon, Stanitski, Diane M., Steinbrecht, Wolfgang, Stella, José L., Stengel, M., Stephenson, Kimberly, Stephenson, Tannecia S., Strahan, Susan, Streletskiy, Dimitri A., Strong, Alan E., Sun-Mack, Sunny, Sutton, Adrienne J., Swart, Sebastiaan, Sweet, William, Takahashi, Kenneth S., Tamar, Gerard, Taylor, Michael A., Tedesco, M., Thackeray, S. J., Thoman, R. L., Thompson, Philip, Thomson, L., Thorsteinsson, T., Timbal, Bertrand, Timmermans, M. L., TImofeyev, Maxim A., Tirak, Kyle V., Tobin, Skie, Togawa, H., Tømmervik, H., Tourpali, Kleareti, Trachte, Katja, Trewin, Blair C., Triñanes, Joaquin A., Trotman, Adrian R., Tschudi, M., Tucker, C. J., Tye, Mari R., Van As, D., Van De Wal, R. S.W., Van Der Ronald, J. A., Van Der Schalie, Robin, Van Der Schrier, Gerard, Van Der Werf, Guido R., Van Meerbeeck, Cedric J., Velden, Christopher S., Velicogna, I., Verburg, Piet, Vickers, H., Vincent, Lucie A., Vömel, Holger, Vose, Russell S., Wagner, Wolfgang, Walker, D. A., Walsh, J., Wang, Bin, Wang, Junhong, Wang, Lei, Wang, M., Wang, Ray, Wang, Sheng Hung, Wanninkhof, Rik, Watanabe, Shohei, Weber, Mark, Webster, M., Weller, Robert A., Westberry, Toby K., Weyhenmeyer, Gesa A., Whitewood, Robert, Widlansky, Matthew J., Wiese, David N., Wijffels, Susan E., Wilber, Anne C., Wild, Jeanette D., Willett, Kate M., Willis, Josh K., Wolken, G., Wong, Takmeng, Wood, E. F., Wood, K., Woolway, R. Iestyn, Wouters, B., Xue, Yan, Yin, Xungang, Yoon, Huang, York, A., Yu, Lisan, Zambrano, Eduardo, Zhang, Huai Min, Zhang, Peiqun, Zhao, Guanguo, Zhao, Lin, Zhu, Zhiwei, Ziel, R., Ziemke, Jerry R., Ziese, Markus G., Griffin, Jessicca, Hammer, Gregory, Love-Brotak, S. Elizabeth, Misch, Deborah J., Riddle, Deborah B., Slagle, Mary, Sprain, Mara, Veasey, Sara W., McVicar, Tim R., Sub Dynamics Meteorology, Sub Soft Condensed Matter, LS Religiewetenschap, Sub Atmospheric physics and chemistry, Zonder bezoldiging NED, LS Taalverwerving, Leerstoel Tubergen, Afd Chemical Biology and Drug Discovery, Hafd Faculteitsbureau GW, Afd Pharmacology, Dep IRAS, Marine and Atmospheric Research, and OFR - Religious Studies

Subjects
Atmospheric Science
Abstract

In 2017, the dominant greenhouse gases released into Earth's atmosphere-carbon dioxide, methane, and nitrous oxide-reached new record highs. The annual global average carbon dioxide concentration at Earth's surface for 2017 was 405.0 ± 0.1 ppm, 2.2 ppm greater than for 2016 and the highest in the modern atmospheric measurement record and in ice core records dating back as far as 800 000 years. The global growth rate of CO2 has nearly quadrupled since the early 1960s. With ENSO-neutral conditions present in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean during most of the year and weak La Niña conditions notable at the start and end, the global temperature across land and ocean surfaces ranked as the second or third highest, depending on the dataset, since records began in the mid-to-late 1800s. Notably, it was the warmest non-El Niño year in the instrumental record. Above Earth's surface, the annual lower tropospheric temperature was also either second or third highest according to all datasets analyzed. The lower stratospheric temperature was about 0.2°C higher than the record cold temperature of 2016 according to most of the in situ and satellite datasets. Several countries, including Argentina, Uruguay, Spain, and Bulgaria, reported record high annual temperatures. Mexico broke its annual record for the fourth consecutive year. On 27 January, the temperature reached 43.4°C at Puerto Madryn, Argentina-the highest temperature recorded so far south (43°S) anywhere in the world. On 28 May in Turbat, western Pakistan, the high of 53.5°C tied Pakistan's all-time highest temperature and became the world-record highest temperature for May. In the Arctic, the 2017 land surface temperature was 1.6°C above the 1981-2010 average, the second highest since the record began in 1900, behind only 2016. The five highest annual Arctic temperatures have all occurred since 2007. Exceptionally high temperatures were observed in the permafrost across the Arctic, with record values reported in much of Alaska and northwestern Canada. In August, high sea surface temperature (SST) records were broken for the Chukchi Sea, with some regions as warm as +11°C, or 3° to 4°C warmer than the longterm mean (1982-present). According to paleoclimate studies, today's abnormally warm Arctic air and SSTs have not been observed in the last 2000 years. The increasing temperatures have led to decreasing Arctic sea ice extent and thickness. On 7 March, sea ice extent at the end of the growth season saw its lowest maximum in the 37-year satellite record, covering 8% less area than the 1981-2010 average. The Arctic sea ice minimum on 13 September was the eighth lowest on record and covered 25% less area than the long-term mean. Preliminary data indicate that glaciers across the world lost mass for the 38th consecutive year on record; the declines are remarkably consistent from region to region. Cumulatively since 1980, this loss is equivalent to slicing 22 meters off the top of the average glacier. Antarctic sea ice extent remained below average for all of 2017, with record lows during the first four months. Over the continent, the austral summer seasonal melt extent and melt index were the second highest since 2005, mostly due to strong positive anomalies of air temperature over most of the West Antarctic coast. In contrast, the East Antarctic Plateau saw record low mean temperatures in March. The year was also distinguished by the second smallest Antarctic ozone hole observed since 1988. Across the global oceans, the overall long-term SST warming trend remained strong. Although SST cooled slightly from 2016 to 2017, the last three years produced the three highest annual values observed; these high anomalies have been associated with widespread coral bleaching. The most recent global coral bleaching lasted three full years, June 2014 to May 2017, and was the longest, most widespread, and almost certainly most destructive such event on record. Global integrals of 0-700-m and 0-2000-m ocean heat content reached record highs in 2017, and global mean sea level during the year became the highest annual average in the 25-year satellite altimetry record, rising to 77 mm above the 1993 average. In the tropics, 2017 saw 85 named tropical storms, slightly above the 1981-2010 average of 82. The North Atlantic basin was the only basin that featured an above-normal season, its seventh most active in the 164-year record. Three hurricanes in the basin were especially notable. Harvey produced record rainfall totals in areas of Texas and Louisiana, including a storm total of 1538.7 mm near Beaumont, Texas, which far exceeds the previous known U.S. tropical cyclone record of 1320.8 mm. Irma was the strongest tropical cyclone globally in 2017 and the strongest Atlantic hurricane outside of the Gulf of Mexico and Caribbean on record with maximum winds of 295 km h-1. Maria caused catastrophic destruction across the Caribbean Islands, including devastating wind damage and flooding across Puerto Rico. Elsewhere, the western North Pacific, South Indian, and Australian basins were all particularly quiet. Precipitation over global land areas in 2017 was clearly above the long-term average. Among noteworthy regional precipitation records in 2017, Russia reported its second wettest year on record (after 2013) and Norway experienced its sixth wettest year since records began in 1900. Across India, heavy rain and flood-related incidents during the monsoon season claimed around 800 lives. In August and September, above-normal precipitation triggered the most devastating floods in more than a decade in the Venezuelan states of Bolívar and Delta Amacuro. In Nigeria, heavy rain during August and September caused the Niger and Benue Rivers to overflow, bringing floods that displaced more than 100 000 people. Global fire activity was the lowest since at least 2003; however, high activity occurred in parts of North America, South America, and Europe, with an unusually long season in Spain and Portugal, which had their second and third driest years on record, respectively. Devastating fires impacted British Columbia, destroying 1.2 million hectares of timber, bush, and grassland, due in part to the region's driest summer on record. In the United States, an extreme western wildfire season burned over 4 million hectares; the total costs of $18 billion tripled the previous U.S. annual wildfire cost record set in 1991.

Published
2018

11. Effects of sea ice on Arctic biota: an emerging crisis discipline

Author

Macias-Fauria, M and Post, E

Subjects
0106 biological sciences, Aquatic Organisms, Conservation of Natural Resources, 010504 meteorology & atmospheric sciences, Environmental change, Life on Land, Climate change, Biology, 010603 evolutionary biology, 01 natural sciences, Arctic ecology, crisis discipline, Sea ice, Ice Cover, Life History Traits, 0105 earth and related environmental sciences, Evolutionary Biology, geography, geography.geographical_feature_category, Ecology, business.industry, Arctic Regions, Global warming, Environmental resource management, conservation, Special Feature, Biota, Biological Sciences, Agricultural and Biological Sciences (miscellaneous), Arctic ice pack, sea ice, climate change, Arctic, Arctic biota, General Agricultural and Biological Sciences, business
Abstract

The rapid decline in Arctic sea ice (ASI) extent, area and volume during recent decades is occurring before we can understand many of the mechanisms through which ASI interacts with biological processes both at sea and on land. As a consequence, our ability to predict and manage the effects of this enormous environmental change is limited, making this a crisis discipline . Here, we propose a framework to study these effects, defining direct effects as those acting on life-history events of Arctic biota, and indirect effects , where ASI acts upon biological systems through chains of events, normally involving other components of the physical system and/or biotic interactions. Given the breadth and complexity of ASI's effects on Arctic biota, Arctic research requires a truly multidisciplinary approach to address this issue. In the absence of effective global efforts to tackle anthropogenic global warming, ASI will likely continue to decrease, compromising the conservation of many ASI-related taxonomic groups and ecosystems. Mitigation actions will rely heavily on the knowledge acquired on the mechanisms and components involved with the biological effects of ASI.

Published
2018

12. Tundra greenness

Author

Epstein, Howard E., Bhatt, U.S., Raynolds, M., Walker, D., Pinzon, J., Tucker, C.J., Forbes, B.C., Horstkotte, T., Macias-Fauria, M., Martin, A., Phoenix, G., Bjerke, Jarle W., Tømmervik, Hans, Fauchald, Per, Vickers, H., Myneni, R., Park, T., and Dickerson, C.

Published
2018

13. State of the Climate in 2017

Author

Arndt, D. S., Blunden, J., Hartfield, G., Ackerman, Steven A., Adler, Robert, Alfaro, Eric J., Allan, Richard P., Allan, Rob, Alves, Lincoln M., Amador, Jorge A., Andreassen, L. M., Argueez, Anthony, Arndt, Derek S., Azorin-molina, Cesar, Baez, Julian, Bardin, M. U., Barichivich, Jonathan, Baringer, Molly O., Barreira, Sandra, Baxter, Stephen, Beck, H. E., Becker, Andreas, Bedka, Kristopher M., Bell, Gerald D., Belmont, M., Benedetti, Angela, Berrisford, Paul, Berry, David I., Bhatt, U. S., Bissolli, Peter, Bjerke, J., Blake, Eric S., Bosilovich, Michael G., Boucher, Olivier, Box, J. E., Boyer, Tim, Braathen, Geir O., Bromwich, David H., Brown, R., Buehler, S., Bulygina, Olga N., Burgess, D., Calderon, Blanca, Camargo, Suzana J., Campbell, Jayaka D., Cappelen, J., Carrea, Laura, Carter, Brendan R., Chambers, Don P., Cheng, Ming-dean, Christiansen, Hanne H., Christy, John R., Chung, E. -s., Clem, Kyle R., Coelho, Caio A. S., Coldewey-egbers, Melanie, Colwell, Steve, Cooper, Owen R., Copland, L., Crouch, Jake, Davis, Sean M., De Eyto, Elvira, De Jeu, Richard A. M., De Laat, Jos, Degasperi, Curtis L., Degenstein, Doug, Demircan, M., Derksen, C., Di Girolamo, Larry, Diamond, Howard J., Dlugokencky, Ed J., Dohan, Kathleen, Dokulil, Martin T., Dolman, A. Johannes, Domingues, Catia M., Donat, Markus G., Dong, Shenfu, Dorigo, Wouter A., Drozdov, D. S., Dunn, Robert J. H., Dutton, Geoff S., Elkharrim, M., Elkins, James W., Epstein, H. E., Espinoza, Jhan C., Famiglietti, James S., Farrell, S., Fausto, R. S., Feely, Richard A., Feng, Z., Fenimore, Chris, Fettweis, X., Fioletov, Vitali E., Flemming, Johannes, Fogt, Ryan L., Folland, Chris, Forbes, B. C., Foster, Michael J., Francis, S. D., Franz, Bryan A., Frey, Richard A., Frith, Stacey M., Froidevaux, Lucien, Ganter, Catherine, Gerland, S., Gilson, John, Gobron, Nadine, Goldenberg, Stanley B., Goni, Gustavo, Grooss, J. -u., Gruber, Alexander, Guard, Charles, Gupta, S. K., Gutierrez, J. M., Haas, C., Hagos, S., Hahn, Sebastian, Haimberger, Leo, Hall, Brad D., Halpert, Michael S., Hamlington, Benjamin D., Hanna, E., Hanssen-bauer, I, Harris, Ian, Heidinger, Andrew K., Heim, Richard R., Jr., Hendricks, S., Hernandez, Marieta, Hernandez, Rafael, Hidalgo, Hugo G., Ho, Shu-peng, Hobbs, William R., Huang, Boyin, Hurst, Dale F., Ialongo, I., Ijampy, J. A., Inness, Antje, Isaksen, K., Ishii, Masayoshi, Jevrejeva, Svetlana, Jimenez, C., Jin Xiangze, John, Viju, Johns, William E., Johnsen, B., Johnson, Bryan, Johnson, Gregory C., Johnson, Kenneth S., Jones, Philip D., Jumaux, Guillaume, Kabidi, Khadija, Kaiser, J. W., Kato, Seiji, Kazemi, A., Keller, Linda M., Kennedy, John, Kerr, Kenneth, Kholodov, A. L., Khoshkam, Mahbobeh, Killick, Rachel, Kim, Hyungjun, Kim, S. -j., Klotzbach, Philip J., Knaff, John A., Kohler, J., Korhonen, Johanna, Korshunova, Natalia N., Kramarova, Natalya, Kratz, D. P., Kruger, Andries, Kruk, Michael C., Krumpen, T., Lakatos, M., Lakkala, K., Lander, Mark A., Landschuetzer, Peter, Landsea, Chris W., Lankhorst, Matthias, Lazzara, Matthew A., Leuliette, Eric, L'Heureux, Michelle, Lieser, Jan L., Lin, I-i, Liu, Hongxing, Liu, Yinghui, Locarnini, Ricardo, Loeb, Norman G., Long, Craig S., Lorrey, Andrew M., Loyola, Diego, Lumpkin, Rick, Luo, Jing-jia, Luojus, K., Lyman, John M., Macias-fauria, M., Malkova, G. V., Manney, G., Marchenko, S. S., Marengo, Jose A., Marra, John J., Marszelewski, Wlodzimierz, Martens, B., Martinez-gueingla, Rodney, Massom, Robert A., May, Linda, Mayer, Michael, Mazloff, Matthew, Mcbride, Charlotte, Mccabe, M. F., Mccarthy, M., Mcvicar, Tim R., Mears, Carl A., Meier, W., Mekonnen, A., Mengistu Tsidu, G., Menzel, W. Paul, Merchant, Christopher J., Meredith, Michael P., Merrifield, Mark A., Miralles, Diego G., Mitchum, Gary T., Mitro, Srkani, Monselesan, Didier, Montzka, Stephen A., Mora, Natalie, Morice, Colin, Mote, T., Mudryk, L., Muehle, Jens, Mullan, A. Brett, Mueller, R., Nash, Eric R., Nerem, R. Steven, Newman, Louise, Newman, Paul A., Nieto, Juan Jose, Noetzli, Jeannette, O'Neel, S., Osborn, Tim J., Overland, J., Oyunjargal, Lamjav, Park, E-hyung, Pasch, Richard J., Pascual-ramirez, Reynaldo, Paterson, Andrew M., Pearce, Petra R., Pelto, Mauri S., Perkins-kirkpatrick, Sarah E., Perovich, D., Petropavlovskikh, Irina, Pezza, Alexandre B., Phillips, C., Phillips, David, Phoenix, G., Pinty, Bernard, Rajeevan, Madhavan, Rayner, Darren, Raynolds, M. K., Reagan, James, Reid, Phillip, Reimer, Christoph, Remy, Samuel, Revadekar, Jayashree V., Richter-menge, J., Rimmer, Alon, Robinson, David A., Rodell, Matthew, Romanovsky, Vladimir E., Ronchail, Josyane, Rosenlof, Karen H., Roth, Chris, Rusak, James A., Sallee, Jean-bapiste, Sanchez-lugo, Ahira, Santee, Michelle L., Sawaengphokhai, P., Sayouri, Amal, Scambos, Ted A., Schladow, S. Geoffrey, Schmid, Claudia, Schmid, Martin, Schreck, Carl J., Iii, Schuur, Ted, Selkirk, H. B., Send, Uwe, Sensoy, Serhat, Sharp, M., Shi, Lei, Shiklomanov, Nikolai I., Shimaraeva, Svetlana V., Siegel, David A., Signorini, Sergio R., Sima, Fatou, Simmons, Adrian J., Smeed, David A., Smeets, C. J. P. P., Smith, Adam, Smith, Sharon L., Soden, B., Spence, Jaqueline M., Srivastava, A. K., Stackhouse, Paul W., Jr., Stammerjohn, Sharon, Steinbrecht, Wolfgang, Stella, Jose L., Stephenson, Tannecia S., Strahan, Susan, Streletskiy, Dimitri A., Sun-mack, Sunny, Swart, Sebastiaan, Sweet, William, Tamar, Gerard, Taylor, Michael A., Tedesco, M., Thoman, R. L., Thompson, L., Thompson, Philip R., Timmermans, M. -l., Tobin, Skie, Trachte, Katja, Trewin, Blair C., Trotman, Adrian R., Tschudi, M., Van As, D., Van De Wal, R. S. W., Van Der Schalie, Robin, Van Der Schrier, Gerard, Van Der Werf, Guido R., Van Meerbeeck, Cedric J., Velicogna, I., Verburg, Piet, Vincent, Lucie A., Voemel, Holger, Vose, Russell S., Wagner, Wolfgang, Walker, D. A., Walsh, J., Wang, Bin, Wang, Chunzai, Wang, Junhong, Wang, Lei, Wang, M., Wang, Sheng-hung, Wanninkhof, Rik, Watanabe, Shohei, Weber, Mark, Weller, Robert A., Weyhenmeyer, Gesa A., Whitewood, Robert, Wiese, David N., Wijffels, Susan E., Wilber, Anne C., Wild, Jeanette D., Willett, Kate M., Willis, Josh K., Wolken, G., Wong, Takmeng, Wood, E. F., Woolway, R. Iestyn, Wouters, B., Xue, Yan, Yin, Xungang, Yu, Lisan, Zambrano, Eduardo, Zhang, Huai-min, Zhang, Peiqun, Zhao, Guanguo, Zhao, Lin, Ziemke, Jerry R., Abernethy, R., Albanil, Encarnacion Adelina, Aldeco, Laura S., Aliaga-nestares, Vannia, Anderson, John, Armitage, C., Avalos, Grinia, Behe, Carolina, Bellouin, Nicolas, Bernhard, G. H., Blenkinsop, Stephen, Bolmgren, K., Bouchon, Marilu, Campbell, Ethan C., Castro, Anabel, Costanza, Carol, Covey, Curt, Coy, Lawrence, Cronin, T., Cruzado, Luis, Daniel, Raychelle, Davletshin, S. G., De La Cour, Jacqueline L., Deline, P., Dewitte, Boris, Dhurmea, R., Dickerson, C., Domingues, Ricardo, Durre, Imke, Eakin, C. Mark, Farmer, J., Fauchald, P., Geiger, Erick F., Gomez, Andrea M., Gugliemin, Mario, Hansen, K., Helfrich, S., Hemming, D. L., Heron, Scott F., Heuze, C., Horstkotte, T., Hubert, Daan, Hueuze, Celine, Ibrahim, M. M., Isaac, Victor, Jacobs, Stephanie J., Jeffries, Martin O., Karakoylu, Erdem M., Khan, M. S., Ladd, C., Lavado-casimiro, Waldo, Lee, S. -e, Lee, T. C., Li, Bailing, Li, Tim, Lopez, Luis A., Luthcke, S., Marcellin, Vernie, Marin, Dora, Marsh, Benjamin L., Martin, A, Martinez, Alejandra G., Martinez-sanchez, Odalys, Meijers, Andrew J. S., Miller, Ben, Moat, Ben, Mochizuki, Y., Mosquera-vasquez, Kobi, Mostafa, Awatif E., Nielsen-gammon, John W., Noll, Ben E., Osborne, Emily, Pastor, Saavedra Maria Asuncion, Paulik, Christoph, Peltier, Alexandre, Pinzon, J., Po-chedley, S., Polashenski, C., Purkey, Sarah G., Quispe, Nelson, Rakotoarimalala, C., Richardson, A. D., Ricker, R, Rodriguez, Camino Ernesto, Rosner, Benjamin, Roth, David Mark, Rutishauser, T., Sasgen, L., Sayad, T. A., Scanlon, T., Schenzinger, Verena, Silow, Eugene, Skirving, William J., Sofieva, Viktoria, Sparks, T. H., Spillane, Sandra, Stanitski, Diane M., Stengel, M., Stephenson, Kimberly, Strong, Alan E., Sutton, Adrienne J., Takahashi, Kenneth S., Thackeray, S. J., Thomson, Lthorsteinsson T., Timbal, Bertrand, Timofeyev, Maxim A., Tirak, Kyle, V, Togawa, H., Tommervik, H., Tourpali, Kleareti, Trinanes, Joaquin A., Tucker, C. J., Tye, Mari R., Van Der A, Ronald J., Velden, Christopher S., Vickers, H., Webster, M., Westberry, Toby K., Widlansky, Matthew J., Wood, K., Yoon, Huang, York, A., Zhu, Zhiwei, Ziel, R., Ziese, Markus G., Arndt, D. S., Blunden, J., Hartfield, G., Ackerman, Steven A., Adler, Robert, Alfaro, Eric J., Allan, Richard P., Allan, Rob, Alves, Lincoln M., Amador, Jorge A., Andreassen, L. M., Argueez, Anthony, Arndt, Derek S., Azorin-molina, Cesar, Baez, Julian, Bardin, M. U., Barichivich, Jonathan, Baringer, Molly O., Barreira, Sandra, Baxter, Stephen, Beck, H. E., Becker, Andreas, Bedka, Kristopher M., Bell, Gerald D., Belmont, M., Benedetti, Angela, Berrisford, Paul, Berry, David I., Bhatt, U. S., Bissolli, Peter, Bjerke, J., Blake, Eric S., Bosilovich, Michael G., Boucher, Olivier, Box, J. E., Boyer, Tim, Braathen, Geir O., Bromwich, David H., Brown, R., Buehler, S., Bulygina, Olga N., Burgess, D., Calderon, Blanca, Camargo, Suzana J., Campbell, Jayaka D., Cappelen, J., Carrea, Laura, Carter, Brendan R., Chambers, Don P., Cheng, Ming-dean, Christiansen, Hanne H., Christy, John R., Chung, E. -s., Clem, Kyle R., Coelho, Caio A. S., Coldewey-egbers, Melanie, Colwell, Steve, Cooper, Owen R., Copland, L., Crouch, Jake, Davis, Sean M., De Eyto, Elvira, De Jeu, Richard A. M., De Laat, Jos, Degasperi, Curtis L., Degenstein, Doug, Demircan, M., Derksen, C., Di Girolamo, Larry, Diamond, Howard J., Dlugokencky, Ed J., Dohan, Kathleen, Dokulil, Martin T., Dolman, A. Johannes, Domingues, Catia M., Donat, Markus G., Dong, Shenfu, Dorigo, Wouter A., Drozdov, D. S., Dunn, Robert J. H., Dutton, Geoff S., Elkharrim, M., Elkins, James W., Epstein, H. E., Espinoza, Jhan C., Famiglietti, James S., Farrell, S., Fausto, R. S., Feely, Richard A., Feng, Z., Fenimore, Chris, Fettweis, X., Fioletov, Vitali E., Flemming, Johannes, Fogt, Ryan L., Folland, Chris, Forbes, B. C., Foster, Michael J., Francis, S. D., Franz, Bryan A., Frey, Richard A., Frith, Stacey M., Froidevaux, Lucien, Ganter, Catherine, Gerland, S., Gilson, John, Gobron, Nadine, Goldenberg, Stanley B., Goni, Gustavo, Grooss, J. -u., Gruber, Alexander, Guard, Charles, Gupta, S. K., Gutierrez, J. M., Haas, C., Hagos, S., Hahn, Sebastian, Haimberger, Leo, Hall, Brad D., Halpert, Michael S., Hamlington, Benjamin D., Hanna, E., Hanssen-bauer, I, Harris, Ian, Heidinger, Andrew K., Heim, Richard R., Jr., Hendricks, S., Hernandez, Marieta, Hernandez, Rafael, Hidalgo, Hugo G., Ho, Shu-peng, Hobbs, William R., Huang, Boyin, Hurst, Dale F., Ialongo, I., Ijampy, J. A., Inness, Antje, Isaksen, K., Ishii, Masayoshi, Jevrejeva, Svetlana, Jimenez, C., Jin Xiangze, John, Viju, Johns, William E., Johnsen, B., Johnson, Bryan, Johnson, Gregory C., Johnson, Kenneth S., Jones, Philip D., Jumaux, Guillaume, Kabidi, Khadija, Kaiser, J. W., Kato, Seiji, Kazemi, A., Keller, Linda M., Kennedy, John, Kerr, Kenneth, Kholodov, A. L., Khoshkam, Mahbobeh, Killick, Rachel, Kim, Hyungjun, Kim, S. -j., Klotzbach, Philip J., Knaff, John A., Kohler, J., Korhonen, Johanna, Korshunova, Natalia N., Kramarova, Natalya, Kratz, D. P., Kruger, Andries, Kruk, Michael C., Krumpen, T., Lakatos, M., Lakkala, K., Lander, Mark A., Landschuetzer, Peter, Landsea, Chris W., Lankhorst, Matthias, Lazzara, Matthew A., Leuliette, Eric, L'Heureux, Michelle, Lieser, Jan L., Lin, I-i, Liu, Hongxing, Liu, Yinghui, Locarnini, Ricardo, Loeb, Norman G., Long, Craig S., Lorrey, Andrew M., Loyola, Diego, Lumpkin, Rick, Luo, Jing-jia, Luojus, K., Lyman, John M., Macias-fauria, M., Malkova, G. V., Manney, G., Marchenko, S. S., Marengo, Jose A., Marra, John J., Marszelewski, Wlodzimierz, Martens, B., Martinez-gueingla, Rodney, Massom, Robert A., May, Linda, Mayer, Michael, Mazloff, Matthew, Mcbride, Charlotte, Mccabe, M. F., Mccarthy, M., Mcvicar, Tim R., Mears, Carl A., Meier, W., Mekonnen, A., Mengistu Tsidu, G., Menzel, W. Paul, Merchant, Christopher J., Meredith, Michael P., Merrifield, Mark A., Miralles, Diego G., Mitchum, Gary T., Mitro, Srkani, Monselesan, Didier, Montzka, Stephen A., Mora, Natalie, Morice, Colin, Mote, T., Mudryk, L., Muehle, Jens, Mullan, A. Brett, Mueller, R., Nash, Eric R., Nerem, R. Steven, Newman, Louise, Newman, Paul A., Nieto, Juan Jose, Noetzli, Jeannette, O'Neel, S., Osborn, Tim J., Overland, J., Oyunjargal, Lamjav, Park, E-hyung, Pasch, Richard J., Pascual-ramirez, Reynaldo, Paterson, Andrew M., Pearce, Petra R., Pelto, Mauri S., Perkins-kirkpatrick, Sarah E., Perovich, D., Petropavlovskikh, Irina, Pezza, Alexandre B., Phillips, C., Phillips, David, Phoenix, G., Pinty, Bernard, Rajeevan, Madhavan, Rayner, Darren, Raynolds, M. K., Reagan, James, Reid, Phillip, Reimer, Christoph, Remy, Samuel, Revadekar, Jayashree V., Richter-menge, J., Rimmer, Alon, Robinson, David A., Rodell, Matthew, Romanovsky, Vladimir E., Ronchail, Josyane, Rosenlof, Karen H., Roth, Chris, Rusak, James A., Sallee, Jean-bapiste, Sanchez-lugo, Ahira, Santee, Michelle L., Sawaengphokhai, P., Sayouri, Amal, Scambos, Ted A., Schladow, S. Geoffrey, Schmid, Claudia, Schmid, Martin, Schreck, Carl J., Iii, Schuur, Ted, Selkirk, H. B., Send, Uwe, Sensoy, Serhat, Sharp, M., Shi, Lei, Shiklomanov, Nikolai I., Shimaraeva, Svetlana V., Siegel, David A., Signorini, Sergio R., Sima, Fatou, Simmons, Adrian J., Smeed, David A., Smeets, C. J. P. P., Smith, Adam, Smith, Sharon L., Soden, B., Spence, Jaqueline M., Srivastava, A. K., Stackhouse, Paul W., Jr., Stammerjohn, Sharon, Steinbrecht, Wolfgang, Stella, Jose L., Stephenson, Tannecia S., Strahan, Susan, Streletskiy, Dimitri A., Sun-mack, Sunny, Swart, Sebastiaan, Sweet, William, Tamar, Gerard, Taylor, Michael A., Tedesco, M., Thoman, R. L., Thompson, L., Thompson, Philip R., Timmermans, M. -l., Tobin, Skie, Trachte, Katja, Trewin, Blair C., Trotman, Adrian R., Tschudi, M., Van As, D., Van De Wal, R. S. W., Van Der Schalie, Robin, Van Der Schrier, Gerard, Van Der Werf, Guido R., Van Meerbeeck, Cedric J., Velicogna, I., Verburg, Piet, Vincent, Lucie A., Voemel, Holger, Vose, Russell S., Wagner, Wolfgang, Walker, D. A., Walsh, J., Wang, Bin, Wang, Chunzai, Wang, Junhong, Wang, Lei, Wang, M., Wang, Sheng-hung, Wanninkhof, Rik, Watanabe, Shohei, Weber, Mark, Weller, Robert A., Weyhenmeyer, Gesa A., Whitewood, Robert, Wiese, David N., Wijffels, Susan E., Wilber, Anne C., Wild, Jeanette D., Willett, Kate M., Willis, Josh K., Wolken, G., Wong, Takmeng, Wood, E. F., Woolway, R. Iestyn, Wouters, B., Xue, Yan, Yin, Xungang, Yu, Lisan, Zambrano, Eduardo, Zhang, Huai-min, Zhang, Peiqun, Zhao, Guanguo, Zhao, Lin, Ziemke, Jerry R., Abernethy, R., Albanil, Encarnacion Adelina, Aldeco, Laura S., Aliaga-nestares, Vannia, Anderson, John, Armitage, C., Avalos, Grinia, Behe, Carolina, Bellouin, Nicolas, Bernhard, G. H., Blenkinsop, Stephen, Bolmgren, K., Bouchon, Marilu, Campbell, Ethan C., Castro, Anabel, Costanza, Carol, Covey, Curt, Coy, Lawrence, Cronin, T., Cruzado, Luis, Daniel, Raychelle, Davletshin, S. G., De La Cour, Jacqueline L., Deline, P., Dewitte, Boris, Dhurmea, R., Dickerson, C., Domingues, Ricardo, Durre, Imke, Eakin, C. Mark, Farmer, J., Fauchald, P., Geiger, Erick F., Gomez, Andrea M., Gugliemin, Mario, Hansen, K., Helfrich, S., Hemming, D. L., Heron, Scott F., Heuze, C., Horstkotte, T., Hubert, Daan, Hueuze, Celine, Ibrahim, M. M., Isaac, Victor, Jacobs, Stephanie J., Jeffries, Martin O., Karakoylu, Erdem M., Khan, M. S., Ladd, C., Lavado-casimiro, Waldo, Lee, S. -e, Lee, T. C., Li, Bailing, Li, Tim, Lopez, Luis A., Luthcke, S., Marcellin, Vernie, Marin, Dora, Marsh, Benjamin L., Martin, A, Martinez, Alejandra G., Martinez-sanchez, Odalys, Meijers, Andrew J. S., Miller, Ben, Moat, Ben, Mochizuki, Y., Mosquera-vasquez, Kobi, Mostafa, Awatif E., Nielsen-gammon, John W., Noll, Ben E., Osborne, Emily, Pastor, Saavedra Maria Asuncion, Paulik, Christoph, Peltier, Alexandre, Pinzon, J., Po-chedley, S., Polashenski, C., Purkey, Sarah G., Quispe, Nelson, Rakotoarimalala, C., Richardson, A. D., Ricker, R, Rodriguez, Camino Ernesto, Rosner, Benjamin, Roth, David Mark, Rutishauser, T., Sasgen, L., Sayad, T. A., Scanlon, T., Schenzinger, Verena, Silow, Eugene, Skirving, William J., Sofieva, Viktoria, Sparks, T. H., Spillane, Sandra, Stanitski, Diane M., Stengel, M., Stephenson, Kimberly, Strong, Alan E., Sutton, Adrienne J., Takahashi, Kenneth S., Thackeray, S. J., Thomson, Lthorsteinsson T., Timbal, Bertrand, Timofeyev, Maxim A., Tirak, Kyle, V, Togawa, H., Tommervik, H., Tourpali, Kleareti, Trinanes, Joaquin A., Tucker, C. J., Tye, Mari R., Van Der A, Ronald J., Velden, Christopher S., Vickers, H., Webster, M., Westberry, Toby K., Widlansky, Matthew J., Wood, K., Yoon, Huang, York, A., Zhu, Zhiwei, Ziel, R., and Ziese, Markus G.

Abstract

In 2017, the dominant greenhouse gases released into Earth’s atmosphere—carbon dioxide, methane, and nitrous oxide— reached new record highs. The annual global average carbon dioxide concentration at Earth’s surface for 2017 was 405.0 ± 0.1 ppm, 2.2 ppm greater than for 2016 and the highest in the modern atmospheric measurement record and in ice core records dating back as far as 800 000 years. The global growth rate of CO2 has nearly quadrupled since the early 1960s. With ENSO-neutral conditions present in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean during most of the year and weak La Niña conditions notable at the start and end, the global temperature across land and ocean surfaces ranked as the second or third highest, depending on the dataset, since records began in the mid-to-late 1800s. Notably, it was the warmest non-El Niño year in the instrumental record. Above Earth’s surface, the annual lower tropospheric temperature was also either second or third highest according to all datasets analyzed. The lower stratospheric temperature was about 0.2°C higher than the record cold temperature of 2016 according to most of the in situ and satellite datasets. Several countries, including Argentina, Uruguay, Spain, and Bulgaria, reported record high annual temperatures. Mexico broke its annual record for the fourth consecutive year. On 27 January, the temperature reached 43.4°C at Puerto Madryn, Argentina—the highest temperature recorded so far south (43°S) anywhere in the world. On 28 May in Turbat, western Pakistan, the high of 53.5°C tied Pakistan’s all-time highest temperature and became the world-record highest temperature for May. In the Arctic, the 2017 land surface temperature was 1.6°C above the 1981–2010 average, the second highest since the record began in 1900, behind only 2016. The five highest annual Arctic temperatures have all occurred since 2007. Exceptionally high temperatures were observed in the permafrost across the Arctic, with record values r

Published
2018
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14. State of the climate in 2017

Author

Sub Dynamics Meteorology, Sub Soft Condensed Matter, LS Religiewetenschap, Sub Atmospheric physics and chemistry, Zonder bezoldiging NED, LS Taalverwerving, Leerstoel Tubergen, Afd Chemical Biology and Drug Discovery, Hafd Faculteitsbureau GW, Afd Pharmacology, Dep IRAS, Marine and Atmospheric Research, OFR - Religious Studies, Abernethy, R., Ackerman, Steven A., Adler, R., Albanil Encarnación, Adelina, Aldeco, Laura S., Alfaro, Eric J., Aliaga-Nestares, Vannia, Allan, Richard P., Allan, Rob, Alves, Lincoln M., Amador, Jorge A., Anderson, John, Andreassen, L. M., Argüez, Anthony, Armitage, C., Arndt, Derek S., Avalos, Grinia, Azorin-Molina, César, Báez, Julián, Bardin, M. Yu, Barichivich, Jonathan, Baringer, Molly O., Barreira, Sandra, Baxter, Stephen, Beck, H. E., Becker, Andreas, Bedka, Kristopher M., Behe, Carolina, Bell, Gerald D., Bellouin, Nicolas, Belmont, M., Benedetti, Angela, Bernhard, G. H., Berrisford, Paul, Berry, David I., Bhatt, U. S., Bissolli, Peter, Bjerke, J., Blake, Eric S., Blenkinsop, Stephen, Blunden, Jessica, Bolmgren, K., Bosilovich, Michael G., Boucher, Olivier, Bouchon, Marilú, Box, J. E., Boyer, Tim, Braathen, Geir O., Bromwich, David H., Brown, R., Buehler, S., Bulygina, Olga N., Burgess, D., Calderón, Blanca, Camargo, Suzana J., Campbell, Ethan C., Campbell, Jayaka D., Cappelen, J., Carrea, Laura, Carter, Brendan R., Castro, Anabel, Chambers, Don P., Cheng, Lijing, Christiansen, Hanne H., Christy, John R., Chung, E. S., Clem, Kyle R., Coelho, Caio A.S., Coldewey-Egbers, Melanie, Colwell, Steve, Cooper, Owen R., Copland, L., Costanza, Carol, Covey, Curt, Coy, Lawrence, Cronin, T., Crouch, Jake, Cruzado, Luis, Daniel, Raychelle, Davis, Sean M., Davletshin, S. G., De Eyto, Elvira, De Jeu, Richard A.M., De La Cour, Jacqueline L., De Laat, Jos, De Gasperi, Curtis L., Degenstein, Doug, Deline, P., Demircan, Mesut, Derksen, C., Dewitte, Boris, Dhurmea, R., Di Girolamo, Larry, Diamond, Howard J., Dickerson, C., Dlugokencky, Ed J., Dohan, Kathleen, Dokulil, Martin T., Dolman, A. Johannes, Domingues, Catia M., Domingues, Ricardo, Donat, Markus G., Dong, Shenfu, Dorigo, Wouter A., Drozdov, D. S., Dunn, Robert J.H., Durre, Imke, Dutton, Geoff S., Eakin, C. Mark, El Kharrim, M., Elkins, James W., Epstein, H. E., Espinoza, Jhan C., Famiglietti, James S., Farmer, J., Farrell, S., Fauchald, P., Fausto, R. S., Feely, Richard A., Feng, Z., Fenimore, Chris, Fettweis, X., Fioletov, Vitali E., Flemming, Johannes, Fogt, Ryan L., Folland, Chris, Forbes, B. C., Foster, Michael J., Francis, S. D., Franz, Bryan A., Frey, Richard A., Frith, Stacey M., Froidevaux, Lucien, Ganter, Catherine, Geiger, Erick F., Gerland, S., Gilson, John, Gobron, Nadine, Goldenberg, Stanley B., Gomez, Andrea M., Goni, Gustavo, Grooß, Jens Uwe, Gruber, Alexander, Guard, Charles P., Gugliemin, Mario, Gupta, S. K., Gutiérrez, Dimitri, Haas, C., Hagos, S., Hahn, Sebastian, Haimberger, Leo, Hall, Brad D., Halpert, Michael S., Hamlington, Benjamin D., Hanna, E., Hansen, K., Hanssen-Bauer, L., Harris, Ian, Hartfield, Gail, Heidinger, Andrew K., Heim, Richard R., Helfrich, S., Hemming, D. L., Hendricks, S., Hernández, Rafael, Hernández, Sosa Marieta, Heron, Scott F., Heuzé, C., Hidalgo, Hugo G., Ho, Shu Peng, Hobbs, William R., Horstkotte, T., Huang, Boyin, Hubert, Daan, Hueuzé, Céline, Hurst, Dale F., Ialongo, Iolanda, Ibrahim, M. M., Ijampy, J. A., Inness, Antje, Isaac, Victor, Isaksen, K., Ishii, Masayoshi, Jacobs, Stephanie J., Jeffries, Martin O., Jevrejeva, Svetlana, Jiménez, C., Jin, Xiangze, John, Viju, Johns, William E., Johnsen, Bjørn, Johnson, Bryan, Johnson, Gregory C., Johnson, Kenneth S., Jones, Philip D., Jumaux, Guillaume, Kabidi, Khadija, Kaiser, J. W., Karaköylü, Erdem M., Kato, Seiji, Kazemi, A., Keller, Linda M., Kennedy, John, Kerr, Kenneth, Khan, M. S., Kholodov, A. L., Khoshkam, Mahbobeh, Killick, Rachel, Kim, Hyungjun, Kim, S. J., Klotzbach, Philip J., Knaff, John A., Kohler, J., Korhonen, Johanna, Korshunova, Natalia N., Kramarova, Natalya, Kratz, D. P., Kruger, Andries, Kruk, Michael C., Krumpen, T., Ladd, C., Lakatos, Mónika, Lakkala, Kaisa, Lander, Mark A., Landschützer, Peter, Landsea, Chris W., Lankhorst, Matthias, Lavado-Casimiro, Waldo, Lazzara, Matthew A., Lee, S. E., Lee, T. C., Leuliette, Eric, L'Heureux, Michelle, Li, Tim, Lieser, Jan L., Lin, I. I., Mears, Carl A., Liu, Gang, Li, Bailing, Liu, Hongxing, Locarnini, Ricardo, Loeb, Norman G., Long, Craig S., López, Luis A., Lorrey, Andrew M., Loyola, Diego, Lumpkin, Rick, Luo, Jing Jia, Luojus, K., Luthcke, S., Macias-Fauria, M., Malkova, G. V., Manney, Gloria L., Marcellin, Vernie, Marchenko, S. S., Marengo, José A., Marín, Dora, Marra, John J., Marszelewski, Wlodzimierz, Martens, B., Martin, A., Martínez, Alejandra G., Martínez-Güingla, Rodney, Martínez-Sánchez, Odalys, Marsh, Benjamin L., Lyman, John M., Massom, Robert A., May, Linda, Mayer, Michael, Mazloff, Matthew, McBride, Charlotte, McCabe, M. F., McCarthy, Mark, Meier, W., Meijers, Andrew J.S., Mekonnen, Ademe, Mengistu Tsidu, G., Menzel, W. Paul, Merchant, Christopher J., Meredith, Michael P., Merrifield, Mark A., Miller, Ben, Miralles, Diego G., Mitchum, Gary T., Mitro, Sukarni, Moat, Ben, Mochizuki, Y., Monselesan, Didier, Montzka, Stephen A., Mora, Natalie, Morice, Colin, Mosquera-Vásquez, Kobi, Mostafa, Awatif E., Mote, T., Mudryk, L., Mühle, Jens, Mullan, A. Brett, Müller, Rolf, Myneni, R., Nash, Eric R., Nerem, R. Steven, Newman, L., Newman, Paul A., Nielsen-Gammon, John W., Nieto, Juan José, Noetzli, Jeannette, Noll, Ben E., O'Neel, S., Osborn, Tim J., Osborne, Emily, Overland, J., Oyunjargal, Lamjav, Park, T., Pasch, Richard J., Pascual-Ramírez, Reynaldo, Pastor Saavedra, Maria Asuncion, Paterson, Andrew M., Paulik, Christoph, Pearce, Petra R., Peltier, Alexandre, Pelto, Mauri S., Peng, Liang, Perkins-Kirkpatrick, Sarah E., Perovich, Don, Petropavlovskikh, Irina, Pezza, Alexandre B., Phillips, C., Phillips, David, Phoenix, G., Pinty, Bernard, Pinzon, J., Po-Chedley, S., Polashenski, C., Purkey, Sarah G., Quispe, Nelson, Rajeevan, Madhavan, Rakotoarimalala, C., Rayner, Darren, Raynolds, M. K., Reagan, James, Reid, Phillip, Reimer, Christoph, Rémy, Samuel, Revadekar, Jayashree V., Richardson, A. D., Richter-Menge, Jacqueline, Ricker, R., Rimmer, Alon, Robinson, David A., Rodell, Matthew, Rodriguez Camino, Ernesto, Romanovsky, Vladimir E., Ronchail, Josyane, Rosenlof, Karen H., Rösner, Benjamin, Roth, Chris, Roth, David Mark, Rusak, James A., Rutishäuser, T., Sallée, Jean Bapiste, Sánchez-Lugo, Ahira, Santee, Michelle L., Sasgen, L., Sawaengphokhai, P., Sayad, T. A., Sayouri, Amal, Scambos, Ted A., Scanlon, T., Schenzinger, Verena, Schladow, S. Geoffrey, Schmid, Claudia, Schmid, Martin, Schreck, Carl J., Selkirk, H. B., Send, Uwe, Sensoy, Serhat, Sharp, M., Shi, Lei, Shiklomanov, Nikolai I., Shimaraeva, Svetlana V., Siegel, David A., Silow, Eugene, Sima, Fatou, Simmons, Adrian J., Skirving, William J., Smeed, David A., Smeets, C. J.P.P., Smith, Adam, Smith, Sharon L., Soden, B., Sofieva, Viktoria, Sparks, T. H., Spence, Jacqueline M., Spillane, Sandra, Srivastava, A. K., Stackhouse, Paul W., Stammerjohn, Sharon, Stanitski, Diane M., Steinbrecht, Wolfgang, Stella, José L., Stengel, M., Stephenson, Kimberly, Stephenson, Tannecia S., Strahan, Susan, Streletskiy, Dimitri A., Strong, Alan E., Sun-Mack, Sunny, Sutton, Adrienne J., Swart, Sebastiaan, Sweet, William, Takahashi, Kenneth S., Tamar, Gerard, Taylor, Michael A., Tedesco, M., Thackeray, S. J., Thoman, R. L., Thompson, Philip, Thomson, L., Thorsteinsson, T., Timbal, Bertrand, Timmermans, M. L., TImofeyev, Maxim A., Tirak, Kyle V., Tobin, Skie, Togawa, H., Tømmervik, H., Tourpali, Kleareti, Trachte, Katja, Trewin, Blair C., Triñanes, Joaquin A., Trotman, Adrian R., Tschudi, M., Tucker, C. J., Tye, Mari R., Van As, D., Van De Wal, R. S.W., Van Der Ronald, J. A., Van Der Schalie, Robin, Van Der Schrier, Gerard, Van Der Werf, Guido R., Van Meerbeeck, Cedric J., Velden, Christopher S., Velicogna, I., Verburg, Piet, Vickers, H., Vincent, Lucie A., Vömel, Holger, Vose, Russell S., Wagner, Wolfgang, Walker, D. A., Walsh, J., Wang, Bin, Wang, Junhong, Wang, Lei, Wang, M., Wang, Ray, Wang, Sheng Hung, Wanninkhof, Rik, Watanabe, Shohei, Weber, Mark, Webster, M., Weller, Robert A., Westberry, Toby K., Weyhenmeyer, Gesa A., Whitewood, Robert, Widlansky, Matthew J., Wiese, David N., Wijffels, Susan E., Wilber, Anne C., Wild, Jeanette D., Willett, Kate M., Willis, Josh K., Wolken, G., Wong, Takmeng, Wood, E. F., Wood, K., Woolway, R. Iestyn, Wouters, B., Xue, Yan, Yin, Xungang, Yoon, Huang, York, A., Yu, Lisan, Zambrano, Eduardo, Zhang, Huai Min, Zhang, Peiqun, Zhao, Guanguo, Zhao, Lin, Zhu, Zhiwei, Ziel, R., Ziemke, Jerry R., Ziese, Markus G., Griffin, Jessicca, Hammer, Gregory, Love-Brotak, S. Elizabeth, Misch, Deborah J., Riddle, Deborah B., Slagle, Mary, Sprain, Mara, Veasey, Sara W., McVicar, Tim R., Sub Dynamics Meteorology, Sub Soft Condensed Matter, LS Religiewetenschap, Sub Atmospheric physics and chemistry, Zonder bezoldiging NED, LS Taalverwerving, Leerstoel Tubergen, Afd Chemical Biology and Drug Discovery, Hafd Faculteitsbureau GW, Afd Pharmacology, Dep IRAS, Marine and Atmospheric Research, OFR - Religious Studies, Abernethy, R., Ackerman, Steven A., Adler, R., Albanil Encarnación, Adelina, Aldeco, Laura S., Alfaro, Eric J., Aliaga-Nestares, Vannia, Allan, Richard P., Allan, Rob, Alves, Lincoln M., Amador, Jorge A., Anderson, John, Andreassen, L. M., Argüez, Anthony, Armitage, C., Arndt, Derek S., Avalos, Grinia, Azorin-Molina, César, Báez, Julián, Bardin, M. Yu, Barichivich, Jonathan, Baringer, Molly O., Barreira, Sandra, Baxter, Stephen, Beck, H. E., Becker, Andreas, Bedka, Kristopher M., Behe, Carolina, Bell, Gerald D., Bellouin, Nicolas, Belmont, M., Benedetti, Angela, Bernhard, G. H., Berrisford, Paul, Berry, David I., Bhatt, U. S., Bissolli, Peter, Bjerke, J., Blake, Eric S., Blenkinsop, Stephen, Blunden, Jessica, Bolmgren, K., Bosilovich, Michael G., Boucher, Olivier, Bouchon, Marilú, Box, J. E., Boyer, Tim, Braathen, Geir O., Bromwich, David H., Brown, R., Buehler, S., Bulygina, Olga N., Burgess, D., Calderón, Blanca, Camargo, Suzana J., Campbell, Ethan C., Campbell, Jayaka D., Cappelen, J., Carrea, Laura, Carter, Brendan R., Castro, Anabel, Chambers, Don P., Cheng, Lijing, Christiansen, Hanne H., Christy, John R., Chung, E. S., Clem, Kyle R., Coelho, Caio A.S., Coldewey-Egbers, Melanie, Colwell, Steve, Cooper, Owen R., Copland, L., Costanza, Carol, Covey, Curt, Coy, Lawrence, Cronin, T., Crouch, Jake, Cruzado, Luis, Daniel, Raychelle, Davis, Sean M., Davletshin, S. G., De Eyto, Elvira, De Jeu, Richard A.M., De La Cour, Jacqueline L., De Laat, Jos, De Gasperi, Curtis L., Degenstein, Doug, Deline, P., Demircan, Mesut, Derksen, C., Dewitte, Boris, Dhurmea, R., Di Girolamo, Larry, Diamond, Howard J., Dickerson, C., Dlugokencky, Ed J., Dohan, Kathleen, Dokulil, Martin T., Dolman, A. Johannes, Domingues, Catia M., Domingues, Ricardo, Donat, Markus G., Dong, Shenfu, Dorigo, Wouter A., Drozdov, D. S., Dunn, Robert J.H., Durre, Imke, Dutton, Geoff S., Eakin, C. Mark, El Kharrim, M., Elkins, James W., Epstein, H. E., Espinoza, Jhan C., Famiglietti, James S., Farmer, J., Farrell, S., Fauchald, P., Fausto, R. S., Feely, Richard A., Feng, Z., Fenimore, Chris, Fettweis, X., Fioletov, Vitali E., Flemming, Johannes, Fogt, Ryan L., Folland, Chris, Forbes, B. C., Foster, Michael J., Francis, S. D., Franz, Bryan A., Frey, Richard A., Frith, Stacey M., Froidevaux, Lucien, Ganter, Catherine, Geiger, Erick F., Gerland, S., Gilson, John, Gobron, Nadine, Goldenberg, Stanley B., Gomez, Andrea M., Goni, Gustavo, Grooß, Jens Uwe, Gruber, Alexander, Guard, Charles P., Gugliemin, Mario, Gupta, S. K., Gutiérrez, Dimitri, Haas, C., Hagos, S., Hahn, Sebastian, Haimberger, Leo, Hall, Brad D., Halpert, Michael S., Hamlington, Benjamin D., Hanna, E., Hansen, K., Hanssen-Bauer, L., Harris, Ian, Hartfield, Gail, Heidinger, Andrew K., Heim, Richard R., Helfrich, S., Hemming, D. L., Hendricks, S., Hernández, Rafael, Hernández, Sosa Marieta, Heron, Scott F., Heuzé, C., Hidalgo, Hugo G., Ho, Shu Peng, Hobbs, William R., Horstkotte, T., Huang, Boyin, Hubert, Daan, Hueuzé, Céline, Hurst, Dale F., Ialongo, Iolanda, Ibrahim, M. M., Ijampy, J. A., Inness, Antje, Isaac, Victor, Isaksen, K., Ishii, Masayoshi, Jacobs, Stephanie J., Jeffries, Martin O., Jevrejeva, Svetlana, Jiménez, C., Jin, Xiangze, John, Viju, Johns, William E., Johnsen, Bjørn, Johnson, Bryan, Johnson, Gregory C., Johnson, Kenneth S., Jones, Philip D., Jumaux, Guillaume, Kabidi, Khadija, Kaiser, J. W., Karaköylü, Erdem M., Kato, Seiji, Kazemi, A., Keller, Linda M., Kennedy, John, Kerr, Kenneth, Khan, M. S., Kholodov, A. L., Khoshkam, Mahbobeh, Killick, Rachel, Kim, Hyungjun, Kim, S. J., Klotzbach, Philip J., Knaff, John A., Kohler, J., Korhonen, Johanna, Korshunova, Natalia N., Kramarova, Natalya, Kratz, D. P., Kruger, Andries, Kruk, Michael C., Krumpen, T., Ladd, C., Lakatos, Mónika, Lakkala, Kaisa, Lander, Mark A., Landschützer, Peter, Landsea, Chris W., Lankhorst, Matthias, Lavado-Casimiro, Waldo, Lazzara, Matthew A., Lee, S. E., Lee, T. C., Leuliette, Eric, L'Heureux, Michelle, Li, Tim, Lieser, Jan L., Lin, I. I., Mears, Carl A., Liu, Gang, Li, Bailing, Liu, Hongxing, Locarnini, Ricardo, Loeb, Norman G., Long, Craig S., López, Luis A., Lorrey, Andrew M., Loyola, Diego, Lumpkin, Rick, Luo, Jing Jia, Luojus, K., Luthcke, S., Macias-Fauria, M., Malkova, G. V., Manney, Gloria L., Marcellin, Vernie, Marchenko, S. S., Marengo, José A., Marín, Dora, Marra, John J., Marszelewski, Wlodzimierz, Martens, B., Martin, A., Martínez, Alejandra G., Martínez-Güingla, Rodney, Martínez-Sánchez, Odalys, Marsh, Benjamin L., Lyman, John M., Massom, Robert A., May, Linda, Mayer, Michael, Mazloff, Matthew, McBride, Charlotte, McCabe, M. F., McCarthy, Mark, Meier, W., Meijers, Andrew J.S., Mekonnen, Ademe, Mengistu Tsidu, G., Menzel, W. Paul, Merchant, Christopher J., Meredith, Michael P., Merrifield, Mark A., Miller, Ben, Miralles, Diego G., Mitchum, Gary T., Mitro, Sukarni, Moat, Ben, Mochizuki, Y., Monselesan, Didier, Montzka, Stephen A., Mora, Natalie, Morice, Colin, Mosquera-Vásquez, Kobi, Mostafa, Awatif E., Mote, T., Mudryk, L., Mühle, Jens, Mullan, A. Brett, Müller, Rolf, Myneni, R., Nash, Eric R., Nerem, R. Steven, Newman, L., Newman, Paul A., Nielsen-Gammon, John W., Nieto, Juan José, Noetzli, Jeannette, Noll, Ben E., O'Neel, S., Osborn, Tim J., Osborne, Emily, Overland, J., Oyunjargal, Lamjav, Park, T., Pasch, Richard J., Pascual-Ramírez, Reynaldo, Pastor Saavedra, Maria Asuncion, Paterson, Andrew M., Paulik, Christoph, Pearce, Petra R., Peltier, Alexandre, Pelto, Mauri S., Peng, Liang, Perkins-Kirkpatrick, Sarah E., Perovich, Don, Petropavlovskikh, Irina, Pezza, Alexandre B., Phillips, C., Phillips, David, Phoenix, G., Pinty, Bernard, Pinzon, J., Po-Chedley, S., Polashenski, C., Purkey, Sarah G., Quispe, Nelson, Rajeevan, Madhavan, Rakotoarimalala, C., Rayner, Darren, Raynolds, M. K., Reagan, James, Reid, Phillip, Reimer, Christoph, Rémy, Samuel, Revadekar, Jayashree V., Richardson, A. D., Richter-Menge, Jacqueline, Ricker, R., Rimmer, Alon, Robinson, David A., Rodell, Matthew, Rodriguez Camino, Ernesto, Romanovsky, Vladimir E., Ronchail, Josyane, Rosenlof, Karen H., Rösner, Benjamin, Roth, Chris, Roth, David Mark, Rusak, James A., Rutishäuser, T., Sallée, Jean Bapiste, Sánchez-Lugo, Ahira, Santee, Michelle L., Sasgen, L., Sawaengphokhai, P., Sayad, T. A., Sayouri, Amal, Scambos, Ted A., Scanlon, T., Schenzinger, Verena, Schladow, S. Geoffrey, Schmid, Claudia, Schmid, Martin, Schreck, Carl J., Selkirk, H. B., Send, Uwe, Sensoy, Serhat, Sharp, M., Shi, Lei, Shiklomanov, Nikolai I., Shimaraeva, Svetlana V., Siegel, David A., Silow, Eugene, Sima, Fatou, Simmons, Adrian J., Skirving, William J., Smeed, David A., Smeets, C. J.P.P., Smith, Adam, Smith, Sharon L., Soden, B., Sofieva, Viktoria, Sparks, T. H., Spence, Jacqueline M., Spillane, Sandra, Srivastava, A. K., Stackhouse, Paul W., Stammerjohn, Sharon, Stanitski, Diane M., Steinbrecht, Wolfgang, Stella, José L., Stengel, M., Stephenson, Kimberly, Stephenson, Tannecia S., Strahan, Susan, Streletskiy, Dimitri A., Strong, Alan E., Sun-Mack, Sunny, Sutton, Adrienne J., Swart, Sebastiaan, Sweet, William, Takahashi, Kenneth S., Tamar, Gerard, Taylor, Michael A., Tedesco, M., Thackeray, S. J., Thoman, R. L., Thompson, Philip, Thomson, L., Thorsteinsson, T., Timbal, Bertrand, Timmermans, M. L., TImofeyev, Maxim A., Tirak, Kyle V., Tobin, Skie, Togawa, H., Tømmervik, H., Tourpali, Kleareti, Trachte, Katja, Trewin, Blair C., Triñanes, Joaquin A., Trotman, Adrian R., Tschudi, M., Tucker, C. J., Tye, Mari R., Van As, D., Van De Wal, R. S.W., Van Der Ronald, J. A., Van Der Schalie, Robin, Van Der Schrier, Gerard, Van Der Werf, Guido R., Van Meerbeeck, Cedric J., Velden, Christopher S., Velicogna, I., Verburg, Piet, Vickers, H., Vincent, Lucie A., Vömel, Holger, Vose, Russell S., Wagner, Wolfgang, Walker, D. A., Walsh, J., Wang, Bin, Wang, Junhong, Wang, Lei, Wang, M., Wang, Ray, Wang, Sheng Hung, Wanninkhof, Rik, Watanabe, Shohei, Weber, Mark, Webster, M., Weller, Robert A., Westberry, Toby K., Weyhenmeyer, Gesa A., Whitewood, Robert, Widlansky, Matthew J., Wiese, David N., Wijffels, Susan E., Wilber, Anne C., Wild, Jeanette D., Willett, Kate M., Willis, Josh K., Wolken, G., Wong, Takmeng, Wood, E. F., Wood, K., Woolway, R. Iestyn, Wouters, B., Xue, Yan, Yin, Xungang, Yoon, Huang, York, A., Yu, Lisan, Zambrano, Eduardo, Zhang, Huai Min, Zhang, Peiqun, Zhao, Guanguo, Zhao, Lin, Zhu, Zhiwei, Ziel, R., Ziemke, Jerry R., Ziese, Markus G., Griffin, Jessicca, Hammer, Gregory, Love-Brotak, S. Elizabeth, Misch, Deborah J., Riddle, Deborah B., Slagle, Mary, Sprain, Mara, Veasey, Sara W., and McVicar, Tim R.

Published
2018

16. State of the Climate in 2016

Author

Arndt, D. S., Blunden, J., Dunn, R. J. H., Aaron-morrison, Arlene P., Abdallah, A., Ackerman, Steven A., Adler, Robert, Alfaro, Eric J., Allan, Richard P., Allan, Rob, Alvarez, Luis A., Alves, Lincoln M., Amador, Jorge A., Andreassen, L. M., Arce, Dayana, Argueez, Anthony, Arndt, Derek S., Arzhanova, N. M., Augustine, John, Awatif, E. M., Azorin-molina, Cesar, Baez, Julian, Bardin, M. U., Barichivich, Jonathan, Baringer, Molly O., Barreira, Sandra, Baxter, Stephen, Beck, H. E., Becker, Andreas, Bedka, Kristopher M., Behrenfeld, Michael J., Bell, Gerald D., Belmont, M., Benedetti, Angela, Bernhard, G. H., Berrisford, Paul, Berry, David I., Bettolli, Maria L., Bhatt, U. S., Bidegain, Mario, Biskaborn, B., Bissolli, Peter, Bjerke, J., Blake, Eric S., Blunden, Jessica, Bosilovich, Michael G., Boucher, Olivier, Boudet, Dagne, Box, J. E., Boyer, Tim, Braathen, Geir O., Brimelow, Julian, Bromwich, David H., Brown, R., Buehler, S., Bulygina, Olga N., Burgess, D., Calderon, Blanca, Camargo, Suzana J., Campbell, Jayaka D., Cappelen, J., Caroff, P., Carrea, Laura, Carter, Brendan R., Chambers, Don P., Chandler, Elise, Cheng, Ming-dean, Christiansen, Hanne H., Christy, John R., Chung, Daniel, Chung, E. -s., Clem, Kyle R., Coelho, Caio A. S., Coldewey-egbers, Melanie, Colwell, Steve, Cooper, Owen R., Copland, L., Cross, J. N., Crouch, Jake, Cutie, Virgen, Davis, Sean M., De Eyto, Elvira, De Jeu, Richard A. M., De Laat, Jos, Degasperi, Curtis L., Degenstein, Doug, Demircan, M., Derksen, C., Di Girolamo, Larry, Diamond, Howard J., Dindyal, S., Dlugokencky, Ed J., Dohan, Kathleen, Dokulil, Martin T., Dolman, A. Johannes, Domingues, Catia M., Donat, Markus G., Dong, Shenfu, Dorigo, Wouter A., Drozdov, D. S., Dunn, Robert J. H., Duran-quesada, Ana M., Dutton, Geoff S., Elkharrim, M., Elkins, James W., Epstein, H. E., Espinoza, Jhan C., Etienne-leblanc, Sheryl, Famiglietti, James S., Farrell, S., Fateh, S., Fausto, R. S., Feely, Richard A., Feng, Z., Fenimore, Chris, Fettweis, X., Fioletov, Vitali E., Flannigan, Mike, Flemming, Johannes, Fogt, Ryan L., Folland, Chris, Fonseca, C., Forbes, B. C., Foster, Michael J., Francis, S. D., Franz, Bryan A., Frey, Richard A., Frith, Stacey M., Froidevaux, Lucien, Ganter, Catherine, Gerland, S., Gilson, John, Gobron, Nadine, Goldenberg, Stanley B., Goni, Gustavo, Gonzalez, Idelmis T., Goto, A., Greenhough, Marianna D., Grooss, J. -u., Gruber, Alexander, Guard, Charles, Gupta, S. K., Gutierrez, J. M., Haas, C., Hagos, S., Hahn, Sebastian, Haimberger, Leo, Hall, Brad D., Halpert, Michael S., Hamlington, Benjamin D., Hanna, E., Hanssen-bauer, I, Hare, Jon, Harris, Ian, Heidinger, Andrew K., Heim, Richard R., Jr., Hendricks, S., Hernandez, Marieta, Hernandez, Rafael, Hidalgo, Hugo G., Ho, Shu-peng, Hobbs, William R., Huang, Boyin, Huelsing, Hannah K., Hurst, Dale F., Ialongo, I., Ijampy, J. A., Inness, Antje, Isaksen, K., Ishii, Masayoshi, Jevrejeva, Svetlana, Jimenez, C., Jin Xiangze, John, Viju, Johns, William E., Johnsen, B., Johnson, Bryan, Johnson, Gregory C., Johnson, Kenneth S., Jones, Philip D., Jumaux, Guillaume, Kabidi, Khadija, Kaiser, J. W., Kass, David, Kato, Seiji, Kazemi, A., Kelem, G., Keller, Linda M., Kelly, B. P., Kendon, Mike, Kennedy, John, Kerr, Kenneth, Kholodov, A. L., Khoshkam, Mahbobeh, Killick, Rachel, Kim, Hyungjun, Kim, S. -j., Kimberlain, Todd B., Klotzbach, Philip J., Knaff, John A., Kochtubajda, Bob, Kohler, J., Korhonen, Johanna, Korshunova, Natalia N., Kramarova, Natalya, Kratz, D. P., Kruger, Andries, Kruk, Michael C., Krumpen, T., Lakatos, M., Lakkala, K., Lanckmann, J. -p., Lander, Mark A., Landschuetzer, Peter, Landsea, Chris W., Lankhorst, Matthias, Lantz, Kathleen, Lazzara, Matthew A., Leuliette, Eric, Lewis, Stephen R., L'Heureux, Michelle, Lieser, Jan L., Lin, I-i, Liu, Hongxing, Liu, Yinghui, Locarnini, Ricardo, Loeb, Norman G., Long, Craig S., Loranty, M., Lorrey, Andrew M., Loyola, Diego, Lu, Mong-ming, Lumpkin, Rick, Luo, Jing-jia, Luojus, K., Lyman, John M., Macara, Gregor, Macdonald, Alison M., Macias-fauria, M., Malkova, G. V., Manney, G., Marchenko, S. S., Marengo, Jose A., Marra, John J., Marszelewski, Wlodzimierz, Martens, B., Martinez-gueingla, Rodney, Massom, Robert A., Mathis, Jeremy T., May, Linda, Mayer, Michael, Mazloff, Matthew, Mcbride, Charlotte, Mccabe, M. F., Mccarthy, Gerard, Mccarthy, M., Mcdonagh, Elaine L., Mcgree, Simon, Mcvicar, Tim R., Mears, Carl A., Meier, W., Mekonnen, A., Menezes, V. V., Mengistu Tsidu, G., Menzel, W. Paul, Merchant, Christopher J., Meredith, Michael P., Merrifield, Mark A., Minnis, Patrick, Miralles, Diego G., Mistelbauer, T., Mitchum, Gary T., Mitro, Srkani, Monselesan, Didier, Montzka, Stephen A., Mora, Natalie, Morice, Colin, Morrow, Blair, Mote, T., Mudryk, L., Muehle, Jens, Mullan, A. Brett, Mueller, R., Nash, Eric R., Nerem, R. Steven, Newman, Louise, Newman, Paul A., Nieto, Juan Jose, Noetzli, Jeannette, O'Neel, S., Osborn, Tim J., Overland, J., Oyunjargal, Lamjav, Parinussa, Robert M., Park, E-hyung, Pasch, Richard J., Pascual-ramirez, Reynaldo, Paterson, Andrew M., Pearce, Petra R., Pellichero, Violaine, Pelto, Mauri S., Peng, Liang, Perkins-kirkpatrick, Sarah E., Perovich, D., Petropavlovskikh, Irina, Pezza, Alexandre B., Phillips, C., Phillips, David, Phoenix, G., Pinty, Bernard, Pitts, Michael C., Pons, M. R., Porter, Avalon O., Quintana, Juan, Rahimzadeh, Fatemeh, Rajeevan, Madhavan, Rayner, Darren, Raynolds, M. K., Razuvaev, Vyacheslav N., Read, Peter, Reagan, James, Reid, Phillip, Reimer, Christoph, Remy, Samuel, Renwick, James A., Revadekar, Jayashree V., Richter-menge, J., Rimmer, Alon, Robinson, David A., Rodell, Matthew, Rollenbeck, Ruetger, Romanovsky, Vladimir E., Ronchail, Josyane, Roquet, F., Rosenlof, Karen H., Roth, Chris, Rusak, James A., Sallee, Jean-bapiste, Sanchez-lugo, Ahira, Santee, Michelle L., Sarmiento, Jorge L., Sawaengphokhai, P., Sayouri, Amal, Scambos, Ted A., Schemm, Jae, Schladow, S. Geoffrey, Schmid, Claudia, Schmid, Martin, Schoeneich, P., Schreck, Carl J., Iii, Schuur, Ted, Selkirk, H. B., Send, Uwe, Sensoy, Serhat, Sharp, M., Shi, Lei, Shiklomanov, Nikolai I., Shimaraeva, Svetlana V., Siegel, David A., Signorini, Sergio R., Silov, Eugene, Sima, Fatou, Simmons, Adrian J., Smeed, David A., Smeets, C. J. P. P., Smith, Adam, Smith, Sharon L., Soden, B., Spence, Jaqueline M., Srivastava, A. K., Stackhouse, Paul W., Jr., Stammerjohn, Sharon, Steinbrecht, Wolfgang, Stella, Jose L., Stennett-brown, Roxann, Stephenson, Tannecia S., Strahan, Susan, Streletskiy, Dimitri A., Sun-mack, Sunny, Swart, Sebastiaan, Sweet, William, Tamar, Gerard, Taylor, Michael A., Tedesco, M., Thoman, R. L., Thompson, L., Thompson, Philip R., Timmermans, M. -l., Timofeev, Maxim A., Tirnanes, Joaquin A., Tobin, Skie, Trachte, Katja, Trewin, Blair C., Trotman, Adrian R., Tschudi, M., Tweedy, Olga, Van As, D., Van De Wal, R. S. W., Van Der Schalie, Robin, Van Der Schrier, Gerard, Van Der Werf, Guido R., Van Meerbeeck, Cedric J., Velicogna, I., Verburg, Piet, Vieira, G., Vincent, Lucie A., Voemel, Holger, Vose, Russell S., Wagner, Wolfgang, Wahlin, Anna, Walker, D. A., Walsh, J., Wang, Bin, Wang, Chunzai, Wang, Junhong, Wang, Lei, Wang, M., Wang, Sheng-hung, Wanninkhof, Rik, Watanabe, Shohei, Weber, Mark, Weller, Robert A., Weyhenmeyer, Gesa A., Whitewood, Robert, Wiese, David N., Wijffels, Susan E., Wilber, Anne C., Wild, Jeanette D., Willett, Kate M., Willie, Shem, Willis, Josh K., Wolken, G., Wong, Takmeng, Wood, E. F., Woolway, R. Iestyn, Wouters, B., Xue, Yan, Yim, So-young, Yin, Xungang, Yu, Lisan, Zambrano, Eduardo, Zhang, Huai-min, Zhang, Peiqun, Zhao, Guanguo, Zhao, Lin, Ziemke, Jerry R., Zilberman, Nathalie, Arndt, D. S., Blunden, J., Dunn, R. J. H., Aaron-morrison, Arlene P., Abdallah, A., Ackerman, Steven A., Adler, Robert, Alfaro, Eric J., Allan, Richard P., Allan, Rob, Alvarez, Luis A., Alves, Lincoln M., Amador, Jorge A., Andreassen, L. M., Arce, Dayana, Argueez, Anthony, Arndt, Derek S., Arzhanova, N. M., Augustine, John, Awatif, E. M., Azorin-molina, Cesar, Baez, Julian, Bardin, M. U., Barichivich, Jonathan, Baringer, Molly O., Barreira, Sandra, Baxter, Stephen, Beck, H. E., Becker, Andreas, Bedka, Kristopher M., Behrenfeld, Michael J., Bell, Gerald D., Belmont, M., Benedetti, Angela, Bernhard, G. H., Berrisford, Paul, Berry, David I., Bettolli, Maria L., Bhatt, U. S., Bidegain, Mario, Biskaborn, B., Bissolli, Peter, Bjerke, J., Blake, Eric S., Blunden, Jessica, Bosilovich, Michael G., Boucher, Olivier, Boudet, Dagne, Box, J. E., Boyer, Tim, Braathen, Geir O., Brimelow, Julian, Bromwich, David H., Brown, R., Buehler, S., Bulygina, Olga N., Burgess, D., Calderon, Blanca, Camargo, Suzana J., Campbell, Jayaka D., Cappelen, J., Caroff, P., Carrea, Laura, Carter, Brendan R., Chambers, Don P., Chandler, Elise, Cheng, Ming-dean, Christiansen, Hanne H., Christy, John R., Chung, Daniel, Chung, E. -s., Clem, Kyle R., Coelho, Caio A. S., Coldewey-egbers, Melanie, Colwell, Steve, Cooper, Owen R., Copland, L., Cross, J. N., Crouch, Jake, Cutie, Virgen, Davis, Sean M., De Eyto, Elvira, De Jeu, Richard A. M., De Laat, Jos, Degasperi, Curtis L., Degenstein, Doug, Demircan, M., Derksen, C., Di Girolamo, Larry, Diamond, Howard J., Dindyal, S., Dlugokencky, Ed J., Dohan, Kathleen, Dokulil, Martin T., Dolman, A. Johannes, Domingues, Catia M., Donat, Markus G., Dong, Shenfu, Dorigo, Wouter A., Drozdov, D. S., Dunn, Robert J. H., Duran-quesada, Ana M., Dutton, Geoff S., Elkharrim, M., Elkins, James W., Epstein, H. E., Espinoza, Jhan C., Etienne-leblanc, Sheryl, Famiglietti, James S., Farrell, S., Fateh, S., Fausto, R. S., Feely, Richard A., Feng, Z., Fenimore, Chris, Fettweis, X., Fioletov, Vitali E., Flannigan, Mike, Flemming, Johannes, Fogt, Ryan L., Folland, Chris, Fonseca, C., Forbes, B. C., Foster, Michael J., Francis, S. D., Franz, Bryan A., Frey, Richard A., Frith, Stacey M., Froidevaux, Lucien, Ganter, Catherine, Gerland, S., Gilson, John, Gobron, Nadine, Goldenberg, Stanley B., Goni, Gustavo, Gonzalez, Idelmis T., Goto, A., Greenhough, Marianna D., Grooss, J. -u., Gruber, Alexander, Guard, Charles, Gupta, S. K., Gutierrez, J. M., Haas, C., Hagos, S., Hahn, Sebastian, Haimberger, Leo, Hall, Brad D., Halpert, Michael S., Hamlington, Benjamin D., Hanna, E., Hanssen-bauer, I, Hare, Jon, Harris, Ian, Heidinger, Andrew K., Heim, Richard R., Jr., Hendricks, S., Hernandez, Marieta, Hernandez, Rafael, Hidalgo, Hugo G., Ho, Shu-peng, Hobbs, William R., Huang, Boyin, Huelsing, Hannah K., Hurst, Dale F., Ialongo, I., Ijampy, J. A., Inness, Antje, Isaksen, K., Ishii, Masayoshi, Jevrejeva, Svetlana, Jimenez, C., Jin Xiangze, John, Viju, Johns, William E., Johnsen, B., Johnson, Bryan, Johnson, Gregory C., Johnson, Kenneth S., Jones, Philip D., Jumaux, Guillaume, Kabidi, Khadija, Kaiser, J. W., Kass, David, Kato, Seiji, Kazemi, A., Kelem, G., Keller, Linda M., Kelly, B. P., Kendon, Mike, Kennedy, John, Kerr, Kenneth, Kholodov, A. L., Khoshkam, Mahbobeh, Killick, Rachel, Kim, Hyungjun, Kim, S. -j., Kimberlain, Todd B., Klotzbach, Philip J., Knaff, John A., Kochtubajda, Bob, Kohler, J., Korhonen, Johanna, Korshunova, Natalia N., Kramarova, Natalya, Kratz, D. P., Kruger, Andries, Kruk, Michael C., Krumpen, T., Lakatos, M., Lakkala, K., Lanckmann, J. -p., Lander, Mark A., Landschuetzer, Peter, Landsea, Chris W., Lankhorst, Matthias, Lantz, Kathleen, Lazzara, Matthew A., Leuliette, Eric, Lewis, Stephen R., L'Heureux, Michelle, Lieser, Jan L., Lin, I-i, Liu, Hongxing, Liu, Yinghui, Locarnini, Ricardo, Loeb, Norman G., Long, Craig S., Loranty, M., Lorrey, Andrew M., Loyola, Diego, Lu, Mong-ming, Lumpkin, Rick, Luo, Jing-jia, Luojus, K., Lyman, John M., Macara, Gregor, Macdonald, Alison M., Macias-fauria, M., Malkova, G. V., Manney, G., Marchenko, S. S., Marengo, Jose A., Marra, John J., Marszelewski, Wlodzimierz, Martens, B., Martinez-gueingla, Rodney, Massom, Robert A., Mathis, Jeremy T., May, Linda, Mayer, Michael, Mazloff, Matthew, Mcbride, Charlotte, Mccabe, M. F., Mccarthy, Gerard, Mccarthy, M., Mcdonagh, Elaine L., Mcgree, Simon, Mcvicar, Tim R., Mears, Carl A., Meier, W., Mekonnen, A., Menezes, V. V., Mengistu Tsidu, G., Menzel, W. Paul, Merchant, Christopher J., Meredith, Michael P., Merrifield, Mark A., Minnis, Patrick, Miralles, Diego G., Mistelbauer, T., Mitchum, Gary T., Mitro, Srkani, Monselesan, Didier, Montzka, Stephen A., Mora, Natalie, Morice, Colin, Morrow, Blair, Mote, T., Mudryk, L., Muehle, Jens, Mullan, A. Brett, Mueller, R., Nash, Eric R., Nerem, R. Steven, Newman, Louise, Newman, Paul A., Nieto, Juan Jose, Noetzli, Jeannette, O'Neel, S., Osborn, Tim J., Overland, J., Oyunjargal, Lamjav, Parinussa, Robert M., Park, E-hyung, Pasch, Richard J., Pascual-ramirez, Reynaldo, Paterson, Andrew M., Pearce, Petra R., Pellichero, Violaine, Pelto, Mauri S., Peng, Liang, Perkins-kirkpatrick, Sarah E., Perovich, D., Petropavlovskikh, Irina, Pezza, Alexandre B., Phillips, C., Phillips, David, Phoenix, G., Pinty, Bernard, Pitts, Michael C., Pons, M. R., Porter, Avalon O., Quintana, Juan, Rahimzadeh, Fatemeh, Rajeevan, Madhavan, Rayner, Darren, Raynolds, M. K., Razuvaev, Vyacheslav N., Read, Peter, Reagan, James, Reid, Phillip, Reimer, Christoph, Remy, Samuel, Renwick, James A., Revadekar, Jayashree V., Richter-menge, J., Rimmer, Alon, Robinson, David A., Rodell, Matthew, Rollenbeck, Ruetger, Romanovsky, Vladimir E., Ronchail, Josyane, Roquet, F., Rosenlof, Karen H., Roth, Chris, Rusak, James A., Sallee, Jean-bapiste, Sanchez-lugo, Ahira, Santee, Michelle L., Sarmiento, Jorge L., Sawaengphokhai, P., Sayouri, Amal, Scambos, Ted A., Schemm, Jae, Schladow, S. Geoffrey, Schmid, Claudia, Schmid, Martin, Schoeneich, P., Schreck, Carl J., Iii, Schuur, Ted, Selkirk, H. B., Send, Uwe, Sensoy, Serhat, Sharp, M., Shi, Lei, Shiklomanov, Nikolai I., Shimaraeva, Svetlana V., Siegel, David A., Signorini, Sergio R., Silov, Eugene, Sima, Fatou, Simmons, Adrian J., Smeed, David A., Smeets, C. J. P. P., Smith, Adam, Smith, Sharon L., Soden, B., Spence, Jaqueline M., Srivastava, A. K., Stackhouse, Paul W., Jr., Stammerjohn, Sharon, Steinbrecht, Wolfgang, Stella, Jose L., Stennett-brown, Roxann, Stephenson, Tannecia S., Strahan, Susan, Streletskiy, Dimitri A., Sun-mack, Sunny, Swart, Sebastiaan, Sweet, William, Tamar, Gerard, Taylor, Michael A., Tedesco, M., Thoman, R. L., Thompson, L., Thompson, Philip R., Timmermans, M. -l., Timofeev, Maxim A., Tirnanes, Joaquin A., Tobin, Skie, Trachte, Katja, Trewin, Blair C., Trotman, Adrian R., Tschudi, M., Tweedy, Olga, Van As, D., Van De Wal, R. S. W., Van Der Schalie, Robin, Van Der Schrier, Gerard, Van Der Werf, Guido R., Van Meerbeeck, Cedric J., Velicogna, I., Verburg, Piet, Vieira, G., Vincent, Lucie A., Voemel, Holger, Vose, Russell S., Wagner, Wolfgang, Wahlin, Anna, Walker, D. A., Walsh, J., Wang, Bin, Wang, Chunzai, Wang, Junhong, Wang, Lei, Wang, M., Wang, Sheng-hung, Wanninkhof, Rik, Watanabe, Shohei, Weber, Mark, Weller, Robert A., Weyhenmeyer, Gesa A., Whitewood, Robert, Wiese, David N., Wijffels, Susan E., Wilber, Anne C., Wild, Jeanette D., Willett, Kate M., Willie, Shem, Willis, Josh K., Wolken, G., Wong, Takmeng, Wood, E. F., Woolway, R. Iestyn, Wouters, B., Xue, Yan, Yim, So-young, Yin, Xungang, Yu, Lisan, Zambrano, Eduardo, Zhang, Huai-min, Zhang, Peiqun, Zhao, Guanguo, Zhao, Lin, Ziemke, Jerry R., and Zilberman, Nathalie

Abstract

In 2016, the dominant greenhouse gases released into Earth's atmosphere-carbon dioxide, methane, and nitrous oxide-continued to increase and reach new record highs. The 3.5 +/- 0.1 ppm rise in global annual mean carbon dioxide from 2015 to 2016 was the largest annual increase observed in the 58-year measurement record. The annual global average carbon dioxide concentration at Earth's surface surpassed 400 ppm (402.9 +/- 0.1 ppm) for the first time in the modern atmospheric measurement record and in ice core records dating back as far as 800000 years. One of the strongest El Nino events since at least 1950 dissipated in spring, and a weak La Nina evolved later in the year. Owing at least in part to the combination of El Nino conditions early in the year and a long-term upward trend, Earth's surface observed record warmth for a third consecutive year, albeit by a much slimmer margin than by which that record was set in 2015. Above Earth's surface, the annual lower troposphere temperature was record high according to all datasets analyzed, while the lower stratospheric temperature was record low according to most of the in situ and satellite datasets. Several countries, including Mexico and India, reported record high annual temperatures while many others observed near-record highs. A week-long heat wave at the end of April over the northern and eastern Indian peninsula, with temperatures surpassing 44 degrees C, contributed to a water crisis for 330 million people and to 300 fatalities. In the Arctic the 2016 land surface temperature was 2.0 degrees C above the 1981-2010 average, breaking the previous record of 2007, 2011, and 2015 by 0.8 degrees C, representing a 3.5 degrees C increase since the record began in 1900. The increasing temperatures have led to decreasing Arctic sea ice extent and thickness. On 24 March, the sea ice extent at the end of the growth season saw its lowest maximum in the 37-year satellite record, tying with 2015 at 7.2% below the 1981-2010 av

Published
2017
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18. Landscape planning for the future: using fossil records to independently validate bioclimatic envelope models for economically valuable tree species in Europe

Author

Macias-Fauria, M and Willis, K

Abstract

Aim Bioclimatic envelope models (BEMs) for seven economically important tree species in Europe were independently validated using a hindcasting approach and fossil pollen records spanning the last 1000 years, including the Medieval Warm Period (MWP), the Little Ice Age (LIA) and the 20th century (PRES). The aim was to determine the accuracy of combining BEMs and palaeoecological data to predict continental-scale changes in distribution, and the availability of fossil data to hindcast economically important species. Location Europe, 11 °W–33 °E, 33–72 °N. Methods Eight types of BEMs were implemented in this study, covering most state-of-the-art modelling techniques. Present and palaeoclimatic data were obtained from the atmosphere–ocean global circulation model ECHO-G. The last millennium was divided into three climatically distinct periods: the MWP (ad 900–1300), the LIA (ad 1600–1850) and PRES (ad 1900–2000). Models were calibrated for each period and validated with climatic and pollen data from the remaining periods. Successfully validated models were projected onto a 1° European grid. Results BEMs were successfully validated with independent data. The average area under the curve statistic showed strong model performance, indicating: (1) the strength of BEMs for modelling current and future distributions and, (2) the potential of fossil pollen records to undertake these approaches. European-scale 1°- gridded maps of probability of occurrence largely agreed with observed 20th-century distributions for most taxa, allowing the construction of past modelled species distributions. Main conclusions Results suggest a high potential for BEMs to be used to model future species distributions, and highlight the importance of palaeoecological data to independently validate these models, taking into account the scales at which these data operate. Although valid, BEMs showed poorer performance with heavily managed species and/or those growing in heterogeneous terrain or with discontinuous distributions. The last millennium in Europe was characterized by an increase in woody crop species and a decline of forest species, suggesting increasing land use by humans.

Published
2013

19. Shrubs – Expanding opportunities for dendrochronologists

Author

Wilmking, M, Hallinger, M, Myers-Smith, I, Baittinger, C, Beil, I, Blok, D, Boulanger-Lapointe, N, Buchwal, A, Buras, A, Dawes, M, Forbes, B, Hik, D, de Jong, R, Jørgensen, R.H., Lantz, T, Levesque, E, Macias-Fauria, M, Naito, A, Ravolainen, V, Rayback, S, Rixen, C, Schaepman-Strub, G, Schmidt, Niels Martin, Speed, J, Tape, K.D., Trant, A, Vellend, M, Weijers, S, Wheeler, J, Wipf, S, and Zimowski, M

Published
2013

21. Shrub expansion in tundra ecosystems: dynamics, impacts and research priorities

Author

Myers-Smith, I H, Forbes, B C, Wilmking, M, Hallinger, M, Lantz, T, Blok, D, Tape, K D, Macias-Fauria, M, Sass-Klaassen, U, Lévesque, E, Boudreau, S, Ropars, P, Hermanutz, L, Trant, A, Collier, L S, Weijers, S, Rozema, J, Rayback, S A, Schmidt, N M, Schaepman-Strub, G, Wipf, S, Rixen, C, Ménard, C B, Venn, S, Goetz, S, Andreu-Hayles, L, Elmendorf, S, Ravolainen, V, Welker, J, Grogan, P, Epstein, H E, Hik, D S, Myers-Smith, I H, Forbes, B C, Wilmking, M, Hallinger, M, Lantz, T, Blok, D, Tape, K D, Macias-Fauria, M, Sass-Klaassen, U, Lévesque, E, Boudreau, S, Ropars, P, Hermanutz, L, Trant, A, Collier, L S, Weijers, S, Rozema, J, Rayback, S A, Schmidt, N M, Schaepman-Strub, G, Wipf, S, Rixen, C, Ménard, C B, Venn, S, Goetz, S, Andreu-Hayles, L, Elmendorf, S, Ravolainen, V, Welker, J, Grogan, P, Epstein, H E, and Hik, D S

Abstract

Recent research using repeat photography, long-term ecological monitoring and dendrochronology has documented shrub expansion in arctic, high-latitude and alpine tundra ecosystems. Here, we (1) synthesize these findings, (2) present a conceptual framework that identifies mechanisms and constraints on shrub increase, (3) explore causes, feedbacks and implications of the increased shrub cover in tundra ecosystems, and (4) address potential lines of investigation for future research. Satellite observations from around the circumpolar Arctic, showing increased productivity, measured as changes in 'greenness', have coincided with a general rise in high-latitude air temperatures and have been partly attributed to increases in shrub cover. Studies indicate that warming temperatures, changes in snow cover, altered disturbance regimes as a result of permafrost thaw, tundra fires, and anthropogenic activities or changes in herbivory intensity are all contributing to observed changes in shrub abundance. A large-scale increase in shrub cover will change the structure of tundra ecosystems and alter energy fluxes, regional climate, soil–atmosphere exchange of water, carbon and nutrients, and ecological interactions between species. In order to project future rates of shrub expansion and understand the feedbacks to ecosystem and climate processes, future research should investigate the species or trait-specific responses of shrubs to climate change including: (1) the temperature sensitivity of shrub growth, (2) factors controlling the recruitment of new individuals, and (3) the relative influence of the positive and negative feedbacks involved in shrub expansion.

Published
2011

24. State of the climate in 2017

Author

Abernethy, R., Ackerman, S. A., Adler, R., Albanil Encarnación, A., Aldeco, L. S., Alfaro, E. J., Aliaga-Nestares, V., Allan, R. P., Allan, R., Alves, L. M., Amador, J. A., Anderson, J., Andreassen, L. M., Argüez, A., Armitage, C., Arndt, D. S., Avalos, G., Azorin-Molina, C., Báez, J., Bardin, M. Yu, Barichivich, J., Baringer, M. O., Barreira, S., Baxter, S., Beck, H. E., Becker, A., Bedka, K. M., Behe, C., Bell, G. D., Bellouin, N., Belmont, M., Benedetti, A., Bernhard, G. H., Berrisford, P., Berry, D. I., Bhatt, U. S., Bissolli, P., Bjerke, J., Blake, E. S., Blenkinsop, S., Blunden, J., Bolmgren, K., Bosilovich, M. G., Boucher, O., Bouchon, M., Box, J. E., Boyer, T., Braathen, G. O., Bromwich, D. H., Brown, R., Buehler, S., Bulygina, O. N., Burgess, D., Calderón, B., Camargo, S. J., Campbell, E. C., Campbell, J. D., Cappelen, J., Carrea, L., Carter, B. R., Castro, A., Chambers, D. P., lijing cheng, Christiansen, H. H., Christy, J. R., Chung, E. -S, Clem, K. R., Coelho, C. A. S., Coldewey-Egbers, M., Colwell, S., Cooper, O. R., Copland, L., Costanza, C., Covey, C., Coy, L., Cronin, T., Crouch, J., Cruzado, L., Daniel, R., Davis, S. M., Davletshin, S. G., Eyto, E., Jeu, R. A. M., La Cour, J. L., Laat, J., Gasperi, C. L., Degenstein, D., Deline, P., Demircan, M., Derksen, C., Dewitte, B., Dhurmea, R., Di Girolamo, L., Diamond, H. J., Dickerson, C., Dlugokencky, E. J., Dohan, K., Dokulil, M. T., Dolman, A. J., Domingues, C. M., Domingues, R., Donat, M. G., Dong, S., Dorigo, W. A., Drozdov, D. S., Dunn, R. J. H., Durre, I., Dutton, G. S., Eakin, C. M., El Kharrim, M., Elkins, J. W., Epstein, H. E., Espinoza, J. C., Famiglietti, J. S., Farmer, J., Farrell, S., Fauchald, P., Fausto, R. S., Feely, R. A., Feng, Z., Fenimore, C., Fettweis, X., Fioletov, V. E., Flemming, J., Fogt, R. L., Folland, C., Forbes, B. C., Foster, M. J., Francis, S. D., Franz, B. A., Frey, R. A., Frith, S. M., Froidevaux, L., Ganter, C., Geiger, E. F., Gerland, S., Gilson, J., Gobron, N., Goldenberg, S. B., Gomez, A. M., Goni, G., Grooß, J. U., Gruber, A., Guard, C. P., Gugliemin, M., Gupta, S. K., Gutiérrez, D., Haas, C., Hagos, S., Hahn, S., Haimberger, L., Hall, B. D., Halpert, M. S., Hamlington, B. D., Hanna, E., Hansen, K., Hanssen-Bauer, L., Harris, I., Hartfield, G., Heidinger, A. K., Heim, R. R., Helfrich, S., Hemming, D. L., Hendricks, S., Hernández, R., Hernández, S. M., Heron, S. F., Heuzé, C., Hidalgo, H. G., Ho, S. -P, Hobbs, W. R., Horstkotte, T., Huang, B., Hubert, D., Hueuzé, C., Hurst, D. F., Ialongo, I., Ibrahim, M. M., Ijampy, J. A., Inness, A., Isaac, V., Isaksen, K., Ishii, M., Jacobs, S. J., Jeffries, M. O., Jevrejeva, S., Jiménez, C., Jin, X., John, V., Johns, W. E., Johnsen, B., Johnson, B., Johnson, G. C., Johnson, K. S., Jones, P. D., Jumaux, G., Kabidi, K., Kaiser, J. W., Karaköylü, E. M., Kato, S., Kazemi, A., Keller, L. M., Kennedy, J., Kerr, K., Khan, M. S., Kholodov, A. L., Khoshkam, M., Killick, R., Kim, H., Kim, S. -J, Klotzbach, P. J., Knaff, J. A., Kohler, J., Korhonen, J., Korshunova, N. N., Kramarova, N., Kratz, D. P., Kruger, A., Kruk, M. C., Krumpen, T., Ladd, C., Lakatos, M., Lakkala, K., Lander, M. A., Landschützer, P., Landsea, C. W., Lankhorst, M., Lavado-Casimiro, W., Lazzara, M. A., Lee, S. -E, Lee, T. C., Leuliette, E., L Heureux, M., Li, T., Lieser, J. L., Lin, I. -I, Mears, C. A., Liu, G., Li, B., Liu, H., Locarnini, R., Loeb, N. G., Long, C. S., López, L. A., Lorrey, A. M., Loyola, D., Lumpkin, R., Luo, J. -J, Luojus, K., Luthcke, S., Macias-Fauria, M., Malkova, G. V., Manney, G. L., Marcellin, V., Marchenko, S. S., Marengo, J. A., Marín, D., Marra, J. J., Marszelewski, W., Martens, B., Martin, A., Martínez, A. G., Martínez-Güingla, R., Martínez-Sánchez, O., Marsh, B. L., Lyman, J. M., Massom, R. A., May, L., Mayer, M., Mazloff, M., Mcbride, C., Mccabe, M. F., Mccarthy, M., Meier, W., Meijers, A. J. S., Mekonnen, A., Mengistu Tsidu, G., Menzel, W. P., Merchant, C. J., Meredith, M. P., Merrifield, M. A., Miller, B., Miralles, D. G., Mitchum, G. T., Mitro, S., Moat, B., Mochizuki, Y., Monselesan, D., Montzka, S. A., Mora, N., Morice, C., Mosquera-Vásquez, K., Mostafa, A. E., Mote, T., Mudryk, L., Mühle, J., Mullan, A. B., Müller, R., Myneni, R., Nash, E. R., Nerem, R. S., Newman, L., Newman, P. A., Nielsen-Gammon, J. W., Nieto, J. J., Noetzli, J., Noll, B. E., O Neel, S., Osborn, T. J., Osborne, E., Overland, J., Oyunjargal, L., Park, T., Pasch, R. J., Pascual-Ramírez, R., Pastor Saavedra, M. A., Paterson, A. M., Paulik, C., Pearce, P. R., Peltier, A., Pelto, M. S., Peng, L., Perkins-Kirkpatrick, S. E., Perovich, D., Petropavlovskikh, I., Pezza, A. B., Phillips, C., Phillips, D., Phoenix, G., Pinty, B., Pinzon, J., Po-Chedley, S., Polashenski, C., Purkey, S. G., Quispe, N., Rajeevan, M., Rakotoarimalala, C., Rayner, D., Raynolds, M. K., Reagan, J., Reid, P., Reimer, C., Rémy, S., Revadekar, J. V., Richardson, A. D., Richter-Menge, J., Ricker, R., Rimmer, A., Robinson, D. A., Rodell, M., Rodriguez Camino, E., Romanovsky, V. E., Ronchail, J., Rosenlof, K. H., Rösner, B., Roth, C., Roth, D. M., Rusak, J. A., Rutishäuser, T., Sallée, J. -B, Sánchez-Lugo, A., Santee, M. L., Sasgen, L., Sawaengphokhai, P., Sayad, T. A., Sayouri, A., Scambos, T. A., Scanlon, T., Schenzinger, V., Schladow, S. G., Schmid, C., Schmid, M., Schreck, C. J., Selkirk, H. B., Send, U., Sensoy, S., Sharp, M., Shi, L., Shiklomanov, N. I., Shimaraeva, S. V., Siegel, D. A., Silow, E., Sima, F., Simmons, A. J., Skirving, W. J., Smeed, D. A., Smeets, C. J. P. P., Smith, A., Smith, S. L., Soden, B., Sofieva, V., Sparks, T. H., Spence, J. M., Spillane, S., Srivastava, A. K., Stackhouse, P. W., Stammerjohn, S., Stanitski, D. M., Steinbrecht, W., Stella, J. L., Stengel, M., Stephenson, K., Stephenson, T. S., Strahan, S., Streletskiy, D. A., Strong, A. E., Sun-Mack, S., Sutton, A. J., Swart, S., Sweet, W., Takahashi, K. S., Tamar, G., Taylor, M. A., Tedesco, M., Thackeray, S. J., Thoman, R. L., Thompson, P., Thomson, L., Thorsteinsson, T., Timbal, B., Timmermans, M. -L, Timofeyev, M. A., Tirak, K. V., Tobin, S., Togawa, H., Tømmervik, H., Tourpali, K., Trachte, K., Trewin, B. C., Triñanes, J. A., Trotman, A. R., Tschudi, M., Tucker, C. J., Tye, M. R., As, D., Wal, R. S. W., Ronald, J. A., Schalie, R., Schrier, G., Werf, G. R., Meerbeeck, C. J., Velden, C. S., Velicogna, I., Verburg, P., Vickers, H., Vincent, L. A., Vömel, H., Vose, R. S., Wagner, W., Walker, D. A., Walsh, J., Wang, B., Wang, J., Wang, L., Wang, M., Wang, R., Wang, S. -H, Wanninkhof, R., Watanabe, S., Weber, M., Webster, M., Weller, R. A., Westberry, T. K., Weyhenmeyer, G. A., Whitewood, R., Widlansky, M. J., Wiese, D. N., Wijffels, S. E., Wilber, A. C., Wild, J. D., Willett, K. M., Willis, J. K., Wolken, G., Wong, T., Wood, E. F., Wood, K., Woolway, R. I., Wouters, B., Xue, Y., Yin, X., Yoon, H., York, A., Yu, L., Zambrano, E., Zhang, H. -M, Zhang, P., Zhao, G., Zhao, L., Zhu, Z., Ziel, R., Ziemke, J. R., Ziese, M. G., Griffin, J., Hammer, G., Love-Brotak, S. E., Misch, D. J., Riddle, D. B., Slagle, M., Sprain, M., Veasey, S. W., and Mcvicar, T. R.

Subjects
Meteor (satellite), Atmospheric Science, Climate Research, 010504 meteorology & atmospheric sciences, Climate change, 010501 environmental sciences, 01 natural sciences, SDG 11 - Sustainable Cities and Communities, Klimatforskning, El Niño Southern Oscillation, 13. Climate action, Climatology, ComputingMethodologies_DOCUMENTANDTEXTPROCESSING, Environmental science, SDG 14 - Life Below Water, GeneralLiterature_REFERENCE(e.g.,dictionaries,encyclopedias,glossaries), 0105 earth and related environmental sciences
Abstract

In 2017, the dominant greenhouse gases released into Earth's atmosphere-carbon dioxide, methane, and nitrous oxide-reached new record highs. The annual global average carbon dioxide concentration at Earth's surface for 2017 was 405.0 ± 0.1 ppm, 2.2 ppm greater than for 2016 and the highest in the modern atmospheric measurement record and in ice core records dating back as far as 800 000 years. The global growth rate of CO2 has nearly quadrupled since the early 1960s. With ENSO-neutral conditions present in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean during most of the year and weak La Niña conditions notable at the start and end, the global temperature across land and ocean surfaces ranked as the second or third highest, depending on the dataset, since records began in the mid-to-late 1800s. Notably, it was the warmest non-El Niño year in the instrumental record. Above Earth's surface, the annual lower tropospheric temperature was also either second or third highest according to all datasets analyzed. The lower stratospheric temperature was about 0.2°C higher than the record cold temperature of 2016 according to most of the in situ and satellite datasets. Several countries, including Argentina, Uruguay, Spain, and Bulgaria, reported record high annual temperatures. Mexico broke its annual record for the fourth consecutive year. On 27 January, the temperature reached 43.4°C at Puerto Madryn, Argentina-the highest temperature recorded so far south (43°S) anywhere in the world. On 28 May in Turbat, western Pakistan, the high of 53.5°C tied Pakistan's all-time highest temperature and became the world-record highest temperature for May. In the Arctic, the 2017 land surface temperature was 1.6°C above the 1981-2010 average, the second highest since the record began in 1900, behind only 2016. The five highest annual Arctic temperatures have all occurred since 2007. Exceptionally high temperatures were observed in the permafrost across the Arctic, with record values reported in much of Alaska and northwestern Canada. In August, high sea surface temperature (SST) records were broken for the Chukchi Sea, with some regions as warm as +11°C, or 3° to 4°C warmer than the longterm mean (1982-present). According to paleoclimate studies, today's abnormally warm Arctic air and SSTs have not been observed in the last 2000 years. The increasing temperatures have led to decreasing Arctic sea ice extent and thickness. On 7 March, sea ice extent at the end of the growth season saw its lowest maximum in the 37-year satellite record, covering 8% less area than the 1981-2010 average. The Arctic sea ice minimum on 13 September was the eighth lowest on record and covered 25% less area than the long-term mean. Preliminary data indicate that glaciers across the world lost mass for the 38th consecutive year on record; the declines are remarkably consistent from region to region. Cumulatively since 1980, this loss is equivalent to slicing 22 meters off the top of the average glacier. Antarctic sea ice extent remained below average for all of 2017, with record lows during the first four months. Over the continent, the austral summer seasonal melt extent and melt index were the second highest since 2005, mostly due to strong positive anomalies of air temperature over most of the West Antarctic coast. In contrast, the East Antarctic Plateau saw record low mean temperatures in March. The year was also distinguished by the second smallest Antarctic ozone hole observed since 1988. Across the global oceans, the overall long-term SST warming trend remained strong. Although SST cooled slightly from 2016 to 2017, the last three years produced the three highest annual values observed; these high anomalies have been associated with widespread coral bleaching. The most recent global coral bleaching lasted three full years, June 2014 to May 2017, and was the longest, most widespread, and almost certainly most destructive such event on record. Global integrals of 0-700-m and 0-2000-m ocean heat content reached record highs in 2017, and global mean sea level during the year became the highest annual average in the 25-year satellite altimetry record, rising to 77 mm above the 1993 average. In the tropics, 2017 saw 85 named tropical storms, slightly above the 1981-2010 average of 82. The North Atlantic basin was the only basin that featured an above-normal season, its seventh most active in the 164-year record. Three hurricanes in the basin were especially notable. Harvey produced record rainfall totals in areas of Texas and Louisiana, including a storm total of 1538.7 mm near Beaumont, Texas, which far exceeds the previous known U.S. tropical cyclone record of 1320.8 mm. Irma was the strongest tropical cyclone globally in 2017 and the strongest Atlantic hurricane outside of the Gulf of Mexico and Caribbean on record with maximum winds of 295 km h-1. Maria caused catastrophic destruction across the Caribbean Islands, including devastating wind damage and flooding across Puerto Rico. Elsewhere, the western North Pacific, South Indian, and Australian basins were all particularly quiet. Precipitation over global land areas in 2017 was clearly above the long-term average. Among noteworthy regional precipitation records in 2017, Russia reported its second wettest year on record (after 2013) and Norway experienced its sixth wettest year since records began in 1900. Across India, heavy rain and flood-related incidents during the monsoon season claimed around 800 lives. In August and September, above-normal precipitation triggered the most devastating floods in more than a decade in the Venezuelan states of Bolívar and Delta Amacuro. In Nigeria, heavy rain during August and September caused the Niger and Benue Rivers to overflow, bringing floods that displaced more than 100 000 people. Global fire activity was the lowest since at least 2003; however, high activity occurred in parts of North America, South America, and Europe, with an unusually long season in Spain and Portugal, which had their second and third driest years on record, respectively. Devastating fires impacted British Columbia, destroying 1.2 million hectares of timber, bush, and grassland, due in part to the region's driest summer on record. In the United States, an extreme western wildfire season burned over 4 million hectares; the total costs of $18 billion tripled the previous U.S. annual wildfire cost record set in 1991.

25. Vegetation response to climate change: a functional traits-based approach

Author

Kühn, N, Macias Fauria, M, Willis, K, and Tovar, C

Subjects
Roots (Botany), Vegetation and climate, Drought-tolerant plants, Ecology, Plant allometry, Remote-sensing maps, Arid regions
Abstract

Climate change influences all aspects of plant biology. The responses of vegetation to climate changes (particularly water availability in the world’s drylands) constitute a critical and timely research agenda, with potentially significant ecological consequences. This doctoral thesis aimed to investigate vegetation response to climate change using a plant functional traits-based approach, with a specific focus on root traits in Southern Africa by undertaking three interlinked research objectives: i) Determination of globally important plant functional traits for coping with climate change (Chapter 4; Research Paper 1). Here the aim was to synthesize the knowledge to date from the published literature on which traits are important in determining a positive response in plant performance and fitness to climate and associated environmental changes. A systematic review of 148 studies published between 2000-2017 was carried out. Results from this work present a suite of eight key traits that best predict positive plant responses: greater water-use efficiency (WUE), greater resprouting ability, lower relative growth rate, greater clonality/bud banks/below-ground storage, higher wood density, greater rooting depth, lower or higher specific leaf area (SLA) and lower or higher plant height (the latter two varying across biomes). These findings illustrate important and general trait-climate responses within and between biomes that enhance understanding of which plant phenotypes may cope with or thrive under current and future climate change. They also highlight the importance of generally understudied belowground traits in conferring plants the ability to cope with climate change. ii) Determination of how root traits vary within a dry biome (Chapter 5; Research Paper 2). Here the aim was to quantify the contribution of belowground traits to overall trait variation in the semi-arid Fynbos biome of South Africa and analyse how this changed along regional and local water availability gradients. Fieldwork was conducted to collect root and aboveground traits of 124 individuals of dominant woody shrub species. Results from this work show that drier regions have greater root investment (rooting depth, length, dry matter content and root:shoot ratio) which was consistent intra-specifically and in post-fire environments. Additionally, roots accounted for significant whole-plant trait variation and, importantly, in drier conditions increased root allocation (at the expense of shoot allocation) deviated from expected global allometric relationships. These findings suggest that root investment will be especially crucial for plant performance and survival in a drier and warmer future predicted for dryland biomes. Chapter 5 (Research Paper 2) thus contributes to the still deficient field data on belowground traits in drylands. iii) Determination of the role that roots play in reducing sensitivity to climate variability in drylands (Chapter 6; Research Paper 3). Here the aim was to use empirical belowground trait data and remote sensing imagery to explore belowground processes with space-borne, spatially continuous data that allow for regional assessments. A statistical analysis was conducted on the relationship between root depth data and remotely derived vegetation sensitivity to climate variability (VSI, after Seddon et al. (2016)) in Southern Africa. Results from this work show that a significant negative relationship between root depth and vegetation sensitivity exists in Southern Africa, as well as a significant positive relationship between root depth and temporal autocorrelation in vegetation productivity. These relationships were influenced by both biome and growth form, but generally imply that deeper roots reduce vegetation responses to concurrent climate variability and dampen temporal variability in aboveground productivity. These findings suggest that accessing deeper water resources during times of water stress through deeper roots is a potential resilience mechanism for drylands under future climate change. In this thesis I conclude that traits play a key role in determining vegetation response to climate change. Specifically, I conclude that in dry biomes often-neglected root traits contribute significantly to overall plant trait variation and are thus key in reducing sensitivity to climate variability and determining positive plant responses to climate change. The novelty of this body of work includes but is not limited to the following findings: i) there is a global set of traits important across biomes to cope with multiple climate changes, ii) both local and regional drivers of water availability are significant drivers of belowground trait variation in the semi-arid Fynbos biome of South Africa and, iii) aboveground plant-climate interactions are reflected by belowground trait.

Published
2022

26. The biogeography of giant kelp submarine forests at the sub-Antarctic latitudes of South America

Author

Mora soto, A, Wedding, L, Cavanaugh, K, and Macias-Fauria, M

Subjects
remote sensing, marine biogeography
Abstract

This doctoral thesis presents the first work on the extent, spatial dynamics, and long-term trends of the giant kelp (Macrocystis pyrifera) ecosystem in southern South America and sub-Antarctic latitudes. This work was based on an interdisciplinary approach of remote sensing using satellite images, unmanned aerial vehicles (UAV), geographical information systems, underwater exploration, and a collection of historical sources and secondary information from international collaborations. The first research paper of this thesis (Chapter 3) presents a mapping methodology of giant kelp derived from filtering values from the satellite Sentinel-2. This method was validated with secondary sources (previous kelp surveys) and primary sources of data, such as detailed orthomosaics made with UAV. Because of the high overall accuracy of this method, it was possible to map and measure the surface of the complete distribution of the giant kelp ecosystem by ecoregion and province. The second paper (Chapter 4) is based on the mapping methodology from Chapter 3, developing a spatial analysis of the sub-Antarctic kelp from South America, Falkland Islands (Malvinas) and South Georgia to understand the abiotic patterns that could predict the typical size of a giant kelp forest. Additionally, these patterns were compared in a temporal analysis stretching as far back as the 19th century to assess the persistence of this ecosystem. The results of this paper indicate that sub-Antarctic giant kelp is one of the least modified and most persistent marine ecosystems on Earth. Chapter 5 analyses the spatial distribution of marine sea surface temperature (SST) heatwaves and marine cold spells in the Channels and Fjords ecoregion in past decades, with a focus on understanding the climatological trends as they can affect giant kelp ecosystems. This paper established that, in contrast to the main global trend pointing towards SST warming, the frequency of marine cold spells in the nearshore coastlines of southernmost South America has in fact increased in the decade of 2010. We identified two main mechanisms as possible causes for this trend: increased frequency of storms driven by the Antarctic Circumpolar Current and glacier melting in the Patagonian fjords. Cold waters favour the persistence of giant kelp and associated biodiversity, hence the lack of SST warming highlights the region as a potential refugium for the ecosystem. However, more studies are needed to understand these new dynamics, and we conclude the paper with a summary of potential stressors to giant kelp ecosystems in the study area. Finally, Chapter 6 provides an overview of the main findings of this thesis and recommendations for future research, highlighting the need for further interdisciplinary studies on the Magellanic marine province as a climatic refugium for the giant kelp ecosystem.

Published
2022

27. Driftwood as a tool for investigation of Holocene pan-Arctic sea ice dynamics

Author

Hole, GM, Nixon, C, Viles, H, and Macias Fauria, M

Subjects
environmental research, Geoscience, physical geography, dendrochronology, oceanography, palaeoclimate, polar research, geochemistry
Abstract

Arctic sea ice is rapidly declining in area and volume, with impacts on local and global climatic and ecological conditions. Without knowledge of past changes, this modern trend cannot be placed within a broader context that would aid future predictions for Arctic sea ice. Driftwood forms an under-utilised proxy for reconstructing Arctic sea ice extent over the Holocene (~12,000 yrs ago to present): its transport and deposition is determined by sea ice and surface current dynamics; making it a robust proxy for sea ice reconstructions. Driftwood in the Arctic results from the falling of trees into the large rivers that drain the circum-Arctic, which upon flowing into the Arctic Ocean can then become locked up in forming sea ice. This enables the driftwood to travel across the Arctic Ocean without sinking, making it an invaluable proxy for sea ice extent by recording variations in Arctic Ocean surface currents (and therefore sea ice drift) and ice cover. Given it takes on average multiple years for driftwood to travel from origin to destination in a high Arctic beach, multi-year sea ice is required for its transport. Driftwood is abundant on many raised Arctic beaches, as it is captured on shorelines that have risen out of the sea due to the retreat of the weight of glaciers at the end of the last ice age. Analysis of the driftwood’s age and provenance can be used to form a reconstruction of the driftwood transport routes through time, and therefore Arctic sea ice extent and dynamics. I present a first pan-Arctic collation of Holocene driftwood data providing a reconstruction of higher spatial and temporal resolution than other proxy-based methods. The collation of 913 driftwood samples from across the western Arctic with spatiotemporal distribution and available provenance data enabled the production of a proxy-based reconstruction of Holocene Arctic Ocean surface current and sea ice dynamics. This revealed that Holocene sea ice extent and drift is characterised by a gradual progression from millennial to centennial shifts in the relative position of the Transpolar Drift and Beaufort Gyre, which is consistent with the dynamics of the Arctic Oscillation. Building on this I present the development of novel methodological approaches which successfully employ driftwood as a proxy for Arctic Ocean surface current and sea ice dynamics. These reveal a 500-year history of driftwood incursion to northern Svalbard, directly reflecting regional sea ice conditions and Arctic Ocean circulation. This record indicates centennial- to decadal-scale shifts in source regions for driftwood incursion to Svalbard, aligning with Late Holocene high variability and high frequency shifts in the Transpolar Drift and Beaufort Gyre strengths and associated fluctuating climate conditions. Driftwood occurrence and provenance also tracks the northward seasonal ice formation shift and migration of seasonal sea ice to the peripheral Arctic seas in the past century. A distinct decrease in driftwood incursion during the last 30 years matches the observed decline in pan-Arctic sea ice extent in recent decades. Lastly, I present the development of novel techniques to refine the provenance of driftwood through radiogenic isotopic analysis (87Sr/86Sr). The use of geochemical provenance techniques can potentially address some of the limitations of current methods, warranting further development. The results show the utilisation of 87Sr/86Sr ratios to establish provenance for Arctic driftwood has potential, with current confounding factors in contamination issues of driftwood during transport and in the scale, spatial heterogeneity and temporal variations of pan-Arctic source regions. Combination of all techniques can further define the role of atmospheric and oceanic circulation in sea ice and climatic changes throughout the Holocene. The components of the thesis describe the successful employment and further development of driftwood as a proxy for Arctic Ocean surface current and sea ice dynamics.

Published
2021

28. Long-term interactions between shrub growth and soil nitrogen availability in the Western Siberian tundra: application of mechanistic modelling approaches using wood-ring data

Author

Martin, AC, Salguero-Gomez, R, Epstein, HE, Macias Fauria, M, and Jeffers, E

Subjects
Arctic ecology, Long-Term Ecology, Dendroecology
Abstract

Rationale. Shrub growth and expansion is occurring in the Arctic, with implications for global climate. Multiple strands of evidence demonstrate an important role of recent increases in tundra air temperatures in enhanced growth of deciduous shrubs at the expense of graminoids and mosses, commonly termed ‘shrubification’. However, shrub growth responses are heterogeneous through both space and time, as evidenced by: (a) meta-analyses of the climate-sensitivity of shrub wood production through time; and (b) progressive declines in the strength of the relationship between remotely sensed vegetation productivity and warming air temperatures. It is plausible that – over decades – soil nitrogen (N) availability may contribute to the observed heterogeneity of shrub growth sensitivity to climate. My key aim was to quantify and identify the presence of N-limitation to shrub growth and its variability in space and through time in Western Siberia, Russia. Method. First, to determine the status of the evidence base for alternative controls on shrub growth, including soil N, I created and followed an evidence mapping protocol to generate a spatial- temporal evidence map. Second, I analysed stable nitrogen isotope ratios (δ15N) in Salix lanata L. shrub wood rings, which provided annually resolved time-series to indicate local-scale N availability. I created annual resolution δ15N time series for ten individuals at Yuribei (1980-2013), Yamal Peninsula, and three-yearly resolution time-series for ten shrub individuals at each of three sites within Western Siberia (1940-2013). I interrogated the δ15N and ring width time-series for shrub individuals by creating mechanistic representations of shrub-nitrogen dynamics; I then identified the most appropriate representations of N-dependency and other environmental constraints on individual shrub growth. Third, I assessed the role of snow dynamics in controlling the relations between nitrogen and shrub growth by extending the modelling approach to incorporate seasonality. Here, snow variability was proxied at a regional scale by earth observation and a local scale by the investigation of δ18O and δ13C isotope time series from wood rings. A software library, Bristlecone, was developed and used to conduct model-fitting and model-selection of mechanistic models. Results. First, the evidence map identified that there were spatial-temporal limitations within the recent evidence for controls on Arctic shrubification processes, including constraints on the temporal extent and resolution of N-limitation effects on shrub growth. Second, reconstructed δ15N time-series indicated that declines in N availability to the Salix lanata shrubs have occurred over decades. Although declines in soil N were observed in Arctic bioclimatic subzones D and E, different trajectories occurred at fine spatial resolution. Interrogation of the δ15N and ring width time-series indicated that the growth of all shrub individuals assessed has been N-limited; and for a majority of these, plant-soil litter feedbacks were a significant determinant of shrub-nitrogen dynamics. Model-inferred dynamics also suggested that the ratio of shrub N uptake to soil N supply has increased over decades. I identified summer air temperature as an important control on individual shrub growth rates in Western Siberia but that this has declined over recent decades. In addition, the growth of shrub individuals at Yuribei was sensitive to the length and timing of the snow-free growing season, but analysis of nitrogen-shrub dynamics did not identify snow depth effects to soil N replenishment rates nor shrub biomass protection. Implications. The findings challenge a key assumption that rising air temperatures have led to universal increases in N availability within tall shrub-dominated Arctic tundra environments. Although all Salix lanata individuals studied were N-limited over decades, the strength and form of limitation varied, with implications for modelling of these dynamics in Earth System Models. The presence of strong litter feedbacks and relative insensitivity of shrub-nitrogen relations to snow-induced microclimatic effects suggest that shrub establishment and maturation provides a greater long-term control on N availability than climatic controls.

Published
2020

30. Conservation planning in Europe: ecological, financial, and political challenges

Author

Hannemann, H, Bennett, K, von Teuffel, K, Macias-Fauria, M, and Willis, K

Abstract

Conservation of biodiversity and sustainable resource use are central aims within ecology. This thesis focuses on the current data and environmental frameworks used to support these aims across different states in Europe. In particular, it examines the impact of geo-political boundaries on data-use, funding and planning for temporal movement of species in response to climate change. It also examines the current environmental framework agreements in Europe and their capacity to deal with trans-boundary aspects of biodiversity change. Through examination of European biodiversity datasets, undertaking species distribution modelling of forest taxa, examining economic data, palaeo-ecological data, and assessing international environmental framework agreements, this thesis identifies a number of important knowledge gaps. Probably unsurprisingly, the distribution of biodiversity in Europe mostly does not match political entities, all of which have individual aims, financial resources, and biodiversity management regimes in place. All have a significant impact on biodiversity conservation planning because i) the use of geo-politically truncated data influences modelling predictions, ii) financial commitment to biodiversity conservation varies between countries influencing success outcomes, iii) biodiversity persistence in current and future climate change does not recognise geo-political boundaries, and iv) many of the key environmental frameworks are implemented within countries and do not considering trans-boundary issues. Overall these findings significantly improve the understanding of conservation and resource management in Europe and fill a number of important knowledge gaps. They highlight the importance of appropriate trans-boundary ecological datasets and the need for more consistency across Europe in financial resources for biodiversity conservation. They also highlight the need for appreciation of areas of high-persistent biodiversity regardless of geo-political boundaries and environmental framework agreements that support cross-border conservation measures.

Published
2018

31. State of the climate in 2016

Author

Aaron-Morrison, A. P., Ackerman, S. A., Adams, N. G., Adler, R. F., Albanil, A., Alfaro, E. J., Allan, R., Alves, L. M., Amador, J. A., Andreassen, L. M., Arendt, A., Arévalo, J., Arndt, D. S., Arzhanova, N. M., Aschan, M. M., Azorin-Molina, C., Banzon, V., Bardin, M. U., Barichivich, J., Baringer, M. O., Barreira, S., Baxter, S., Bazo, J., Becker, A., Bedka, K. M., Behrenfeld, M. J., Bell, G. D., Belmont, M., Benedetti, A., Bernhard, G., Berrisford, P., Berry, D. I., Bettolli, M. L., Bhatt, U. S., Bidegain, M., Bill, B. D., Billheimer, S., Bissolli, P., Blake, E. S., Blunden, J., Bosilovich, M. G., Boucher, O., Boudet, D., Box, J. E., Boyer, T., Braathen, G. O., Bromwich, D. H., Brown, R., Bulygina, O. N., Burgess, D., Calderón, B., Camargo, S. J., Campbell, J. D., Cappelen, J., Carrasco, G., Carter, B. R., Chambers, D. P., Chandler, E., Christiansen, H. H., Christy, J. R., Chung, D., Chung, E. S., Cinque, K., Clem, K. R., Coelho, C. A., Cogley, J. G., Coldewey-Egbers, M., Colwell, S., Cooper, O. R., Copland, L., Cosca, C. E., Cross, J. N., Crotwell, M. J., Crouch, J., Davis, S. M., Eyto, E., Jeu, R. A. M., Laat, J., Degasperi, C. L., Degenstein, D., Demircan, M., Derksen, C., Destin, D., Di Girolamo, L., Di Giuseppe, F., Diamond, H. J., Dlugokencky, E. J., Dohan, K., Dokulil, M. T., Dolgov, A. V., Dolman, A. J., Domingues, C. M., Donat, M. G., Dong, S., Dorigo, W. A., Dortch, Q., Doucette, G., Drozdov, D. S., Ducklow, H., Dunn, R. J. H., Durán-Quesada, A. M., Dutton, G. S., Ebrahim, A., Elkharrim, M., Elkins, J. W., Espinoza, J. C., Etienne-Leblanc, S., Evans, T. E., Famiglietti, J. S., Farrell, S., Fateh, S., Fausto, R. S., Fedaeff, N., Feely, R. A., Feng, Z., Fenimore, C., Fettweis, X., Fioletov, V. E., Flemming, J., Fogarty, C. T., Fogt, R. L., Folland, C., Fonseca, C., Fossheim, M., Foster, M. J., Fountain, A., Francis, S. D., Franz, B. A., Frey, R. A., Frith, S. M., Froidevaux, L., Ganter, C., Garzoli, S., Gerland, S., Gobron, N., Goldenberg, S. B., Gomez, R. S., Goni, G., Goto, A., Grooß, J. U., Gruber, A., Guard, C. C., Gugliemin, M., Gupta, S. K., Gutiérrez, J. M., Hagos, S., Hahn, S., Haimberger, L., Hakkarainen, J., Hall, B. D., Halpert, M. S., Hamlington, B. D., Hanna, E., Hansen, K., Hanssen-Bauer, I., Harris, I., Heidinger, A. K., Heikkilä, A., Heil, A., Heim, R. R., Hendricks, S., Hernández, M., Hidalgo, H. G., Hilburn, K., Ho, S. P. B., Holmes, R. M., Hu, Z. Z., Huang, B., Huelsing, H. K., Huffman, G. J., Hughes, C., Hurst, D. F., Ialongo, I., Ijampy, J. A., Ingvaldsen, R. B., Inness, A., Isaksen, K., Ishii, M., Jevrejeva, S., Jiménez, C., Jin, X., Johannesen, E., John, V., Johnsen, B., Johnson, B., Johnson, G. C., Jones, P. D., Joseph, A. C., Jumaux, G., Kabidi, K., Kaiser, J. W., Kato, S., Kazemi, A., Keller, L. M., Kendon, M., Kennedy, J., Kerr, K., Kholodov, A. L., Khoshkam, M., Killick, R., Kim, H., Kim, S. J., Kimberlain, T. B., Klotzbach, P. J., Knaff, J. A., Kobayashi, S., Kohler, J., Korhonen, J., Korshunova, N. N., Kovacs, K. M., Kramarova, N., Kratz, D. P., Kruger, A., Kruk, M. C., Kudela, R., Kumar, A., Lakatos, M., Lakkala, K., Lander, M. A., Landsea, C. W., Lankhorst, M., Lantz, K., Lazzara, M. A., Lemons, P., Leuliette, E., L’heureux, M., Lieser, J. L., Lin, I. I., Liu, H., Liu, Y., Locarnini, R., Loeb, N. G., Lo Monaco, C., Long, C. S., López Álvarez, L. A., Lorrey, A. M., Loyola, D., Lumpkin, R., Luo, J. J., Luojus, K., Lydersen, C., Lyman, J. M., Maberly, S. C., Maddux, B. C., Malheiros Ramos, A., Malkova, G. V., Manney, G., Marcellin, V., Marchenko, S. S., Marengo, J. A., Marra, J. J., Marszelewski, W., Martens, B., Martínez-Güingla, R., Massom, R. A., Mata, M. M., Mathis, J. T., May, L., Mayer, M., Mazloff, M., Mcbride, C., Mccabe, M. F., Mccarthy, M., Mcclelland, J. W., Mcgree, S., Mcvicar, T. R., Mears, C. A., Meier, W., Meinen, C. S., Mekonnen, A., Menéndez, M., Mengistu Tsidu, G., Menzel, W. P., Merchant, C. J., Meredith, M. P., Merrifield, M. A., Metzl, N., Minnis, P., Miralles, D. G., Mistelbauer, T., Mitchum, G. T., Monselesan, D., Monteiro, P., Montzka, S. A., Morice, C., Mote, T., Mudryk, L., Mühle, J., Mullan, A. B., Nash, E. R., Naveira-Garabato, A. C., Nerem, R. S., Newman, P. A., Nieto, J. J., Noetzli, J., O’neel, S., Osborn, T. J., Overland, J., Oyunjargal, L., Parinussa, R. M., Park, E. H., Parker, D., Parrington, M., Parsons, A. R., Pasch, R. J., Pascual-Ramírez, R., Paterson, A. M., Paulik, C., Pearce, P. R., Pelto, M. S., Peng, L., Perkins-Kirkpatrick, S. E., Perovich, D., Petropavlovskikh, I., Pezza, A. B., Phillips, D., Pinty, B., Pitts, M. C., Pons, M. R., Porter, A. O., Primicerio, R., Proshutinsky, A., Quegan, S., Quintana, J., Rahimzadeh, F., Rajeevan, M., Randriamarolaza, L., Razuvaev, V. N., Reagan, J., Reid, P., Reimer, C., Rémy, S., Renwick, J. A., Revadekar, J. V., Richter-Menge, J., Riffler, M., Rimmer, A., Rintoul, S., Robinson, D. A., Rodell, M., Rodríguez Solís, J. L., Romanovsky, V. E., Ronchail, J., Rosenlof, K. H., Roth, C., Rusak, J. A., Sabine, C. L., Sallée, J. B., Sánchez-Lugo, A., Santee, M. L., Sawaengphokhai, P., Sayouri, A., Scambos, T. A., Schemm, J., Schladow, S. G., Schmid, C., Schmid, M., Schmidtko, S., Schreck, C. J., Selkirk, H. B., Send, U., Sensoy, S., Setzer, A., Sharp, M., Shaw, A., Shi, L., Shiklomanov, A. I., Shiklomanov, N. I., Siegel, D. A., Signorini, S. R., Sima, F., Simmons, A. J., Smeets, C. J. P. P., Smith, S. L., Spence, J. M., Srivastava, A. K., Stackhouse, P. W., Stammerjohn, S., Steinbrecht, W., Stella, J. L., Stengel, M., Stennett-Brown, R., Stephenson, T. S., Strahan, S., Streletskiy, D. A., Sun-Mack, S., Swart, S., Sweet, W., Talley, L. D., Tamar, G., Tank, S. E., Taylor, M. A., Tedesco, M., Teubner, K., Thoman, R. L., Thompson, P., Thomson, L., Timmermans, M. L., Maxim Timofeyev, Tirnanes, J. A., Tobin, S., Trachte, K., Trainer, V. L., Tretiakov, M., Trewin, B. C., Trotman, A. R., Tschudi, M., As, D., Wal, R. S. W., A, R. J., Schalie, R., Schrier, G., Werf, G. R., Meerbeeck, C. J., Velicogna, I., Verburg, P., Vigneswaran, B., Vincent, L. A., Volkov, D., Vose, R. S., Wagner, W., Wåhlin, A., Wahr, J., Walsh, J., Wang, C., Wang, J., Wang, L., Wang, M., Wang, S. H., Wanninkhof, R., Watanabe, S., Weber, M., Weller, R. A., Weyhenmeyer, G. A., Whitewood, R., Wijffels, S. E., Wilber, A. C., Wild, J. D., Willett, K. M., Williams, M. J. M., Willie, S., Wolken, G., Wong, T., Wood, E. F., Woolway, R. I., Wouters, B., Xue, Y., Yamada, R., Yim, S. Y., Yin, X., Young, S. H., Yu, L., Zahid, H., Zambrano, E., Zhang, P., Zhao, G., Zhou, L., Ziemke, J. R., Love-Brotak, S. E., Gilbert, K., Maycock, T., Osborne, S., Sprain, M., Veasey, S. W., Ambrose, B. J., Griffin, J., Misch, D. J., Riddle, D. B., Young, T., Macias Fauria, M, Blunden, J, Arndt, D, Earth and Climate, Faculty of Earth and Life Sciences, Clinical Developmental Psychology, Climate Change and Landscape Dynamics, and Molecular Cell Physiology

Subjects
Meteor (satellite), Atmospheric Science, 010504 meteorology & atmospheric sciences, 0208 environmental biotechnology, 02 engineering and technology, 01 natural sciences, 020801 environmental engineering, Geography, 13. Climate action, Climatology, SDG 13 - Climate Action, SDG 14 - Life Below Water, 0105 earth and related environmental sciences
Abstract

In 2016, the dominant greenhouse gases released into Earth's atmosphere-carbon dioxide, methane, and nitrous oxide-continued to increase and reach new record highs. The 3.5 +/- 0.1 ppm rise in global annual mean carbon dioxide from 2015 to 2016 was the largest annual increase observed in the 58-year measurement record. The annual global average carbon dioxide concentration at Earth's surface surpassed 400 ppm (402.9 +/- 0.1 ppm) for the first time in the modern atmospheric measurement record and in ice core records dating back as far as 800000 years. One of the strongest El Nino events since at least 1950 dissipated in spring, and a weak La Nina evolved later in the year. Owing at least in part to the combination of El Nino conditions early in the year and a long-term upward trend, Earth's surface observed record warmth for a third consecutive year, albeit by a much slimmer margin than by which that record was set in 2015. Above Earth's surface, the annual lower troposphere temperature was record high according to all datasets analyzed, while the lower stratospheric temperature was record low according to most of the in situ and satellite datasets. Several countries, including Mexico and India, reported record high annual temperatures while many others observed near-record highs. A week-long heat wave at the end of April over the northern and eastern Indian peninsula, with temperatures surpassing 44 degrees C, contributed to a water crisis for 330 million people and to 300 fatalities. In the Arctic the 2016 land surface temperature was 2.0 degrees C above the 1981-2010 average, breaking the previous record of 2007, 2011, and 2015 by 0.8 degrees C, representing a 3.5 degrees C increase since the record began in 1900. The increasing temperatures have led to decreasing Arctic sea ice extent and thickness. On 24 March, the sea ice extent at the end of the growth season saw its lowest maximum in the 37-year satellite record, tying with 2015 at 7.2% below the 1981-2010 average. The September 2016 Arctic sea ice minimum extent tied with 2007 for the second lowest value on record, 33% lower than the 1981-2010 average. Arctic sea ice cover remains relatively young and thin, making it vulnerable to continued extensive melt. The mass of the Greenland Ice Sheet, which has the capacity to contribute similar to 7 m to sea level rise, reached a record low value. The onset of its surface melt was the second earliest, after 2012, in the 37-year satellite record. Sea surface temperature was record high at the global scale, surpassing the previous record of 2015 by about 0.01 degrees C. The global sea surface temperature trend for the 21st century-to-date of +0.162 degrees C decade(-1) is much higher than the longer term 1950-2016 trend of +0.100 degrees C decade(-1). Global annual mean sea level also reached a new record high, marking the sixth consecutive year of increase. Global annual ocean heat content saw a slight drop compared to the record high in 2015. Alpine glacier retreat continued around the globe, and preliminary data indicate that 2016 is the 37th consecutive year of negative annual mass balance. Across the Northern Hemisphere, snow cover for each month from February to June was among its four least extensive in the 47-year satellite record. Continuing a pattern below the surface, record high temperatures at 20-m depth were measured at all permafrost observatories on the North Slope of Alaska and at the Canadian observatory on northernmost Ellesmere Island. In the Antarctic, record low monthly surface pressures were broken at many stations, with the southern annular mode setting record high index values in March and June. Monthly high surface pressure records for August and November were set at several stations. During this period, record low daily and monthly sea ice extents were observed, with the November mean sea ice extent more than 5 standard deviations below the 1981-2010 average. These record low sea ice values contrast sharply with the record high values observed during 2012-14. Over the region, springtime Antarctic stratospheric ozone depletion was less severe relative to the 1991-2006 average, but ozone levels were still low compared to pre-1990 levels. Closer to the equator, 93 named tropical storms were observed during 2016, above the 1981-2010 average of 82, but fewer than the 101 storms recorded in 2015. Three basins-the North Atlantic, and eastern and western North Pacific-experienced above-normal activity in 2016. The Australian basin recorded its least active season since the beginning of the satellite era in 1970. Overall, four tropical cyclones reached the Saffir-Simpson category 5 intensity level. The strong El Nino at the beginning of the year that transitioned to a weak La Nina contributed to enhanced precipitation variability around the world. Wet conditions were observed throughout the year across southern South America, causing repeated heavy flooding in Argentina, Paraguay, and Uruguay. Wetter-than-usual conditions were also observed for eastern Europe and central Asia, alleviating the drought conditions of 2014 and 2015 in southern Russia. In the United States, California had its first wetter-than-average year since 2012, after being plagued by drought for several years. Even so, the area covered by drought in 2016 at the global scale was among the largest in the post-1950 record. For each month, at least 12% of land surfaces experienced severe drought conditions or worse, the longest such stretch in the record. In northeastern Brazil, drought conditions were observed for the fifth consecutive year, making this the longest drought on record in the region. Dry conditions were also observed in western Bolivia and Peru; it was Bolivia's worst drought in the past 25 years. In May, with abnormally warm and dry conditions already prevailing over western Canada for about a year, the human-induced Fort McMurray wildfire burned nearly 590000 hectares and became the costliest disaster in Canadian history, with $3 billion (U.S. dollars) in insured losses.

Published
2017

32. Greening of Svalbard.

Author

Karlsen SR, Elvebakk A, Stendardi L, Høgda KA, and Macias-Fauria M

Abstract

Svalbard, located between 76°30'N and 80°50'N, is among the regions in the world with the most rapid temperature increase. We processed a cloud-free time-series of MODIS-NDVI for Svalbard. The dataset is interpolated to daily data during the 2000-2022 period with 232 m pixel resolution. The onset of growth, with a clear phenological definition, has been mapped each year. Then the integrated NDVI from the onset (O) of growth each year to the time of average (2000-2022) peak (P) of growth (OP NDVI) have been calculated. OP NDVI has previously shown high correlation with field-based tundra productivity. Daily mean temperature data from 11 meteorological stations are compared with the NDVI data. The OP NDVI values show very high and significant correlation with growing degree days computed from onset to time of peak of growth for all the meteorological stations used. On average for the entire Svalbard, the year 2016 first had the highest greening (OP NDVI values) recorded since the year 2000, then the greening in 2018 surpassed 2016, then 2020 surpassed 2018, and finally 2022 was the year with the overall highest greening by far for the whole 2000-2022 period. This shows a rapid recent greening of Svalbard very strongly linked to temperature increase, although there are regional differences: the eastern parts of Svalbard show the largest variability between years, most likely due to variability in the timing of sea-ice break-up in adjacent areas. Finally, we find that areas dominated by manured moss-tundra in the polar desert zone require new methodologies, as moss does not share the seasonal NDVI dynamics of tundra communities., Competing Interests: Declaration of competing interest The authors declare the following financial interests/personal relationships which may be considered as potential competing interests: Stein Rune Karlsen reports financial support was provided by Norwegian Space Agency. If there are other authors, they declare that they have no known competing financial interests or personal relationships that could have appeared to influence the work reported in this paper., (Copyright © 2024 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.)

Published
2024
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33. Plant traits and associated data from a warming experiment, a seabird colony, and along elevation in Svalbard.

Author

Vandvik V, Halbritter AH, Althuizen IHJ, Christiansen CT, Henn JJ, Jónsdóttir IS, Klanderud K, Macias-Fauria M, Malhi Y, Maitner BS, Michaletz S, Roos RE, Telford RJ, Bass P, Björnsdóttir K, Bustamante LLV, Chmurzynski A, Chen S, Haugum SV, Kemppinen J, Lepley K, Li Y, Linabury M, Matos IS, Neto-Bradley BM, Ng M, Niittynen P, Östman S, Pánková K, Roth N, Castorena M, Spiegel M, Thomson E, Vågenes AS, and Enquist BJ

Subjects
Animals, Birds, Knowledge, Svalbard, Climate, Ecosystem
Abstract

The Arctic is warming at a rate four times the global average, while also being exposed to other global environmental changes, resulting in widespread vegetation and ecosystem change. Integrating functional trait-based approaches with multi-level vegetation, ecosystem, and landscape data enables a holistic understanding of the drivers and consequences of these changes. In two High Arctic study systems near Longyearbyen, Svalbard, a 20-year ITEX warming experiment and elevational gradients with and without nutrient input from nesting seabirds, we collected data on vegetation composition and structure, plant functional traits, ecosystem fluxes, multispectral remote sensing, and microclimate. The dataset contains 1,962 plant records and 16,160 trait measurements from 34 vascular plant taxa, for 9 of which these are the first published trait data. By integrating these comprehensive data, we bridge knowledge gaps and expand trait data coverage, including on intraspecific trait variation. These data can offer insights into ecosystem functioning and provide baselines to assess climate and environmental change impacts. Such knowledge is crucial for effective conservation and management in these vulnerable regions., (© 2023. Springer Nature Limited.)

Published
2023
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34. Large herbivore diversity slows sea ice-associated decline in arctic tundra diversity.

Author

Post E, Kaarlejärvi E, Macias-Fauria M, Watts DA, Bøving PS, Cahoon SMP, Higgins RC, John C, Kerby JT, Pedersen C, Post M, and Sullivan PF

Subjects
Animals, Humans, Arctic Regions, Climate Change, Ice Cover, Plants, Tundra, Biodiversity, Herbivory, Reindeer physiology, Extinction, Biological
Abstract

Biodiversity is declining globally in response to multiple human stressors, including climate forcing. Nonetheless, local diversity trends are inconsistent in some taxa, obscuring contributions of local processes to global patterns. Arctic tundra diversity, including plants, fungi, and lichens, declined during a 15-year experiment that combined warming with exclusion of large herbivores known to influence tundra vegetation composition. Tundra diversity declined regardless of experimental treatment, as background growing season temperatures rose with sea ice loss. However, diversity declined slower with large herbivores than without them. This difference was associated with an increase in effective diversity of large herbivores as formerly abundant caribou declined and muskoxen increased. Efforts that promote herbivore diversity, such as rewilding, may help mitigate impacts of warming on tundra diversity.

Published
2023
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35. A 2-million-year-old ecosystem in Greenland uncovered by environmental DNA.

Author

Kjær KH, Winther Pedersen M, De Sanctis B, De Cahsan B, Korneliussen TS, Michelsen CS, Sand KK, Jelavić S, Ruter AH, Schmidt AMA, Kjeldsen KK, Tesakov AS, Snowball I, Gosse JC, Alsos IG, Wang Y, Dockter C, Rasmussen M, Jørgensen ME, Skadhauge B, Prohaska A, Kristensen JÅ, Bjerager M, Allentoft ME, Coissac E, Rouillard A, Simakova A, Fernandez-Guerra A, Bowler C, Macias-Fauria M, Vinner L, Welch JJ, Hidy AJ, Sikora M, Collins MJ, Durbin R, Larsen NK, and Willerslev E

Subjects
Ecosystem, Ecology, Fossils, Greenland, DNA, Environmental
Abstract

Late Pliocene and Early Pleistocene epochs 3.6 to 0.8 million years ago 1 had climates resembling those forecasted under future warming 2 . Palaeoclimatic records show strong polar amplification with mean annual temperatures of 11-19 °C above contemporary values 3,4 . The biological communities inhabiting the Arctic during this time remain poorly known because fossils are rare 5 . Here we report an ancient environmental DNA 6 (eDNA) record describing the rich plant and animal assemblages of the Kap København Formation in North Greenland, dated to around two million years ago. The record shows an open boreal forest ecosystem with mixed vegetation of poplar, birch and thuja trees, as well as a variety of Arctic and boreal shrubs and herbs, many of which had not previously been detected at the site from macrofossil and pollen records. The DNA record confirms the presence of hare and mitochondrial DNA from animals including mastodons, reindeer, rodents and geese, all ancestral to their present-day and late Pleistocene relatives. The presence of marine species including horseshoe crab and green algae support a warmer climate than today. The reconstructed ecosystem has no modern analogue. The survival of such ancient eDNA probably relates to its binding to mineral surfaces. Our findings open new areas of genetic research, demonstrating that it is possible to track the ecology and evolution of biological communities from two million years ago using ancient eDNA., (© 2022. The Author(s).)

Published
2022
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36. The role of large wild animals in climate change mitigation and adaptation.

Author

Malhi Y, Lander T, le Roux E, Stevens N, Macias-Fauria M, Wedding L, Girardin C, Kristensen JÅ, Sandom CJ, Evans TD, Svenning JC, and Canney S

Subjects
Animals, Animals, Wild, Biodiversity, Carbon, Conservation of Natural Resources, Soil, Climate Change, Ecosystem
Abstract

Two major environmental challenges of our time are responding to climate change and reversing biodiversity decline. Interventions that simultaneously tackle both challenges are highly desirable. To date, most studies aiming to find synergistic interventions for these two challenges have focused on protecting or restoring vegetation and soils but overlooked how conservation or restoration of large wild animals might influence the climate mitigation and adaptation potential of ecosystems. However, interactions between large animal conservation and climate change goals may not always be positive. Here, we review wildlife conservation and climate change mitigation in terrestrial and marine ecosystems. We elucidate general principles about the biome types where, and mechanisms by which, positive synergies and negative trade-offs between wildlife conservation and climate change mitigation are likely. We find that large animals have the greatest potential to facilitate climate change mitigation at a global scale via three mechanisms: changes in fire regime, especially in previously low-flammability biomes with a new or intensifying fire regime, such as mesic grasslands or warm temperate woodlands; changes in terrestrial albedo, particularly where there is potential to shift from closed canopy to open canopy systems at higher latitudes; and increases in vegetation and soil carbon stocks, especially through a shift towards below-ground carbon pools in temperate, tropical and sub-tropical grassland ecosystems. Large animals also contribute to ecosystem adaptation to climate change by promoting complexity of trophic webs, increasing habitat heterogeneity, enhancing plant dispersal, increasing resistance to abrupt ecosystem change and through microclimate modification., Competing Interests: Declaration of interests The authors declare no competing interests., (Copyright © 2022 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.)

Published
2022
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37. Common mechanisms explain nitrogen-dependent growth of Arctic shrubs over three decades despite heterogeneous trends and declines in soil nitrogen availability.

Author

Martin AC, Macias-Fauria M, Bonsall MB, Forbes BC, Zetterberg P, and Jeffers ES

Subjects
Arctic Regions, Climate, Ecosystem, Plants, Nitrogen, Soil
Abstract

Heterogeneity has been observed in the responses of Arctic shrubs to climate variability over recent decades, which may reflect landscape-scale variability in belowground resources. At a northern fringe of tall shrub expansion (Yuribei, Yamal Peninsula, Russia), we sought to determine the mechanisms relating nitrogen (N) limitation to shrub growth over decadal time. We analysed the ratio of 15 N to 14 N isotopes in wood rings of 10 Salix lanata individuals (399 measurements) to reconstruct annual point-based bioavailable N between 1980 and 2013. We applied a model-fitting/model-selection approach with a suite of competing ecological models to assess the most-likely mechanisms that explain each shrub's individual time-series. Shrub δ 15 N time-series indicated declining (seven shrubs), increasing (two shrubs) and no trend (one shrub) in N availability. The most appropriate model for all shrubs included N-dependent growth of linear rather than saturating form. Inclusion of plant-soil feedbacks better explained ring width and δ 15 N for eight of 10 individuals. Although N trajectories were individualistic, common mechanisms of varying strength confirmed the N-dependency of shrub growth. The linear mechanism may reflect intense scavenging of scarce N; the importance of plant-soil feedbacks suggests that shrubs subvert the microbial bottleneck by actively controlling their environment., (© 2021 The Authors. New Phytologist © 2021 New Phytologist Foundation.)

Published
2022
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38. Divergence of Arctic shrub growth associated with sea ice decline.

Author

Buchwal A, Sullivan PF, Macias-Fauria M, Post E, Myers-Smith IH, Stroeve JC, Blok D, Tape KD, Forbes BC, Ropars P, Lévesque E, Elberling B, Angers-Blondin S, Boyle JS, Boudreau S, Boulanger-Lapointe N, Gamm C, Hallinger M, Rachlewicz G, Young A, Zetterberg P, and Welker JM

Subjects
Arctic Regions, Climate, Humidity, Models, Theoretical, Seasons, Soil, Temperature, Ice Cover, Plant Development
Abstract

Arctic sea ice extent (SIE) is declining at an accelerating rate with a wide range of ecological consequences. However, determining sea ice effects on tundra vegetation remains a challenge. In this study, we examined the universality or lack thereof in tundra shrub growth responses to changes in SIE and summer climate across the Pan-Arctic, taking advantage of 23 tundra shrub-ring chronologies from 19 widely distributed sites (56°N to 83°N). We show a clear divergence in shrub growth responses to SIE that began in the mid-1990s, with 39% of the chronologies showing declines and 57% showing increases in radial growth (decreasers and increasers, respectively). Structural equation models revealed that declining SIE was associated with rising air temperature and precipitation for increasers and with increasingly dry conditions for decreasers. Decreasers tended to be from areas of the Arctic with lower summer precipitation and their growth decline was related to decreases in the standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index. Our findings suggest that moisture limitation, associated with declining SIE, might inhibit the positive effects of warming on shrub growth over a considerable part of the terrestrial Arctic, thereby complicating predictions of vegetation change and future tundra productivity., Competing Interests: The authors declare no competing interest., (Copyright © 2020 the Author(s). Published by PNAS.)

Published
2020
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39. Summer warming explains widespread but not uniform greening in the Arctic tundra biome.

Author

Berner LT, Massey R, Jantz P, Forbes BC, Macias-Fauria M, Myers-Smith I, Kumpula T, Gauthier G, Andreu-Hayles L, Gaglioti BV, Burns P, Zetterberg P, D'Arrigo R, and Goetz SJ

Subjects
Arctic Regions, Climate Change, Environmental Monitoring, Plant Development, Plants, Soil, Temperature, Ecosystem, Seasons, Tundra
Abstract

Arctic warming can influence tundra ecosystem function with consequences for climate feedbacks, wildlife and human communities. Yet ecological change across the Arctic tundra biome remains poorly quantified due to field measurement limitations and reliance on coarse-resolution satellite data. Here, we assess decadal changes in Arctic tundra greenness using time series from the 30 m resolution Landsat satellites. From 1985 to 2016 tundra greenness increased (greening) at ~37.3% of sampling sites and decreased (browning) at ~4.7% of sampling sites. Greening occurred most often at warm sampling sites with increased summer air temperature, soil temperature, and soil moisture, while browning occurred most often at cold sampling sites that cooled and dried. Tundra greenness was positively correlated with graminoid, shrub, and ecosystem productivity measured at field sites. Our results support the hypothesis that summer warming stimulated plant productivity across much, but not all, of the Arctic tundra biome during recent decades.

Published
2020
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40. Pleistocene Arctic megafaunal ecological engineering as a natural climate solution?

Author

Macias-Fauria M, Jepson P, Zimov N, and Malhi Y

Subjects
Animals, Arctic Regions, Climate Change, Russia, Bison physiology, Carbon Sequestration, Conservation of Natural Resources methods, Ecosystem, Horses physiology
Abstract

Natural climate solutions (NCS) in the Arctic hold the potential to be implemented at a scale able to substantially affect the global climate. The strong feedbacks between carbon-rich permafrost, climate and herbivory suggest an NCS consisting of reverting the current wet/moist moss and shrub-dominated tundra and the sparse forest-tundra ecotone to grassland through a guild of large herbivores. Grassland-dominated systems might delay permafrost thaw and reduce carbon emissions-especially in Yedoma regions, while increasing carbon capture through increased productivity and grass and forb deep root systems. Here we review the environmental context of megafaunal ecological engineering in the Arctic; explore the mechanisms through which it can help mitigate climate change; and estimate its potential-based on bison and horse, with the aim of evaluating the feasibility of generating an ecosystem shift that is economically viable in terms of carbon benefits and of sufficient scale to play a significant role in global climate change mitigation. Assuming a megafaunal-driven ecosystem shift we find support for a megafauna-based arctic NCS yielding substantial income in carbon markets. However, scaling up such projects to have a significant effect on the global climate is challenging given the large number of animals required over a short period of time. A first-cut business plan is presented based on practical information-costs and infrastructure-from Pleistocene Park (northeastern Yakutia, Russia). A 10 yr experimental phase incorporating three separate introductions of herds of approximately 1000 individuals each is costed at US$114 million, with potential returns of approximately 0.3-0.4% yr -1 towards the end of the period, and greater than 1% yr -1 after it. Institutional friction and the potential role of new technologies in the reintroductions are discussed. This article is part of the theme issue 'Climate change and ecosystems: threats, opportunities and solutions'.

Published
2020
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41. Community Assembly and Climate Mismatch in Late Quaternary Eastern North American Pollen Assemblages.

Author

Knight CA, Blois JL, Blonder B, Macias-Fauria M, Ordonez A, and Svenning JC

Subjects
Fossils, Ice Cover, North America, Seeds anatomy & histology, Tracheophyta anatomy & histology, Tracheophyta physiology, Trees, Climate Change, Pollen classification
Abstract

Plant community response to climate change ranges from synchronous tracking to strong mismatch. Explaining this variation in climate change response is critical for accurate global change modeling. Here we quantify how closely assemblages track changes in climate (match/mismatch) and how broadly climate niches are spread within assemblages (narrow/broad ecological tolerance, or "filtering") using data for the past 21,000 years for 531 eastern North American fossil pollen assemblages. Although climate matching has been strong over the last 21 millennia, mismatch increased in 30% of assemblages during the rapid climate shifts between 14.5 and 10 ka. Assemblage matching rebounded toward the present day in 10%-20% of assemblages. Climate-assemblage mismatch was greater in tree-dominated and high-latitude assemblages, consistent with persisting populations, slower dispersal rates, and glacial retreat. In contrast, climate matching was greater for assemblages comprising taxa with higher median seed mass. More than half of the assemblages were climatically filtered at any given time, with peak filtering occurring at 8.5 ka for nearly 80% of assemblages. Thus, vegetation assemblages have highly variable rates of climate mismatch and filtering over millennial scales. These climate responses can be partially predicted by species' traits and life histories. These findings help constrain predictions for plant community response to contemporary climate change.

Published
2020
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42. The polar regions in a 2°C warmer world.

Author

Post E, Alley RB, Christensen TR, Macias-Fauria M, Forbes BC, Gooseff MN, Iler A, Kerby JT, Laidre KL, Mann ME, Olofsson J, Stroeve JC, Ulmer F, Virginia RA, and Wang M

Abstract

Over the past decade, the Arctic has warmed by 0.75°C, far outpacing the global average, while Antarctic temperatures have remained comparatively stable. As Earth approaches 2°C warming, the Arctic and Antarctic may reach 4°C and 2°C mean annual warming, and 7°C and 3°C winter warming, respectively. Expected consequences of increased Arctic warming include ongoing loss of land and sea ice, threats to wildlife and traditional human livelihoods, increased methane emissions, and extreme weather at lower latitudes. With low biodiversity, Antarctic ecosystems may be vulnerable to state shifts and species invasions. Land ice loss in both regions will contribute substantially to global sea level rise, with up to 3 m rise possible if certain thresholds are crossed. Mitigation efforts can slow or reduce warming, but without them northern high latitude warming may accelerate in the next two to four decades. International cooperation will be crucial to foreseeing and adapting to expected changes., (Copyright © 2019 The Authors, some rights reserved; exclusive licensee American Association for the Advancement of Science. No claim to original U.S. Government Works. Distributed under a Creative Commons Attribution NonCommercial License 4.0 (CC BY-NC).)

Published
2019
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43. Changes in timing of seasonal peak photosynthetic activity in northern ecosystems.

Author

Park T, Chen C, Macias-Fauria M, Tømmervik H, Choi S, Winkler A, Bhatt US, Walker DA, Piao S, Brovkin V, Nemani RR, and Myneni RB

Subjects
Carbon Cycle, Plants, Seasons, Ecosystem, Photosynthesis
Abstract

Seasonality in photosynthetic activity is a critical component of seasonal carbon, water, and energy cycles in the Earth system. This characteristic is a consequence of plant's adaptive evolutionary processes to a given set of environmental conditions. Changing climate in northern lands (>30°N) alters the state of climatic constraints on plant growth, and therefore, changes in the seasonality and carbon accumulation are anticipated. However, how photosynthetic seasonality evolved to its current state, and what role climatic constraints and their variability played in this process and ultimately in carbon cycle is still poorly understood due to its complexity. Here, we take the "laws of minimum" as a basis and introduce a new framework where the timing (day of year) of peak photosynthetic activity (DOY Pmax ) acts as a proxy for plant's adaptive state to climatic constraints on its growth. Our analyses confirm that spatial variations in DOY Pmax reflect spatial gradients in climatic constraints as well as seasonal maximum and total productivity. We find a widespread warming-induced advance in DOY Pmax (-1.66 ± 0.30 days/decade, p < 0.001) across northern lands, indicating a spatiotemporal dynamism of climatic constraints to plant growth. We show that the observed changes in DOY Pmax are associated with an increase in total gross primary productivity through enhanced carbon assimilation early in the growing season, which leads to an earlier phase shift in land-atmosphere carbon fluxes and an increase in their amplitude. Such changes are expected to continue in the future based on our analysis of earth system model projections. Our study provides a simplified, yet realistic framework based on first principles for the complex mechanisms by which various climatic factors constrain plant growth in northern ecosystems., (© 2019 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.)

Published
2019
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45. Satellite images show China going green.

Author

Macias-Fauria M

Subjects
China, Desert Climate, Droughts, Soil, Conservation of Natural Resources trends, Environmental Monitoring, Forestry methods, Forestry trends, Satellite Imagery, Trees growth & development
Published
2018
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46. Disentangling the coupling between sea ice and tundra productivity in Svalbard.

Author

Macias-Fauria M, Karlsen SR, and Forbes BC

Abstract

The rapid decline in Arctic sea ice poses urgent questions concerning its ecological effects, such as on tundra terrestrial productivity. However, reported sea ice/terrestrial productivity linkages have seldom been constrained, and the mechanism governing them remains elusive, with a diversity of spatial scales and metrics proposed, at times in contradiction to each other. In this study, we use spatially explicit remotely sensed sea ice concentration and high-resolution terrestrial productivity estimates (Normalised Difference Vegetation Index, NDVI) across the Svalbard Archipelago to describe local/sub-regional and large-scale components of sea ice/terrestrial productivity coupling. Whereas the local/sub-regional component is attributed to sea breeze (cold air advection from ice-covered ocean onto adjacent land during the growing season), the large-scale component might reflect co-variability of sea ice and tundra productivity due to a common forcing, such as large-scale atmospheric circulation (North Atlantic Oscillation, NAO). Our study clarifies the range of mechanisms in sea ice/terrestrial productivity coupling, allowing the generation of testable hypotheses about its past, present, and future dynamics across the Arctic.

Published
2017
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47. Predictability in community dynamics.

Author

Blonder B, Moulton DE, Blois J, Enquist BJ, Graae BJ, Macias-Fauria M, McGill B, Nogué S, Ordonez A, Sandel B, and Svenning JC

Subjects
Population Dynamics, Biota, Climate Change, Ecology methods, Models, Biological
Abstract

The coupling between community composition and climate change spans a gradient from no lags to strong lags. The no-lag hypothesis is the foundation of many ecophysiological models, correlative species distribution modelling and climate reconstruction approaches. Simple lag hypotheses have become prominent in disequilibrium ecology, proposing that communities track climate change following a fixed function or with a time delay. However, more complex dynamics are possible and may lead to memory effects and alternate unstable states. We develop graphical and analytic methods for assessing these scenarios and show that these dynamics can appear in even simple models. The overall implications are that (1) complex community dynamics may be common and (2) detailed knowledge of past climate change and community states will often be necessary yet sometimes insufficient to make predictions of a community's future state., (© 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd/CNRS.)

Published
2017
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48. Sea ice, rain-on-snow and tundra reindeer nomadism in Arctic Russia.

Author

Forbes BC, Kumpula T, Meschtyb N, Laptander R, Macias-Fauria M, Zetterberg P, Verdonen M, Skarin A, Kim KY, Boisvert LN, Stroeve JC, and Bartsch A

Subjects
Animal Husbandry, Animal Migration, Animals, Arctic Regions, Humans, Rain, Siberia, Snow, Tundra, Climate Change, Ice Cover, Reindeer
Abstract

Sea ice loss is accelerating in the Barents and Kara Seas (BKS). Assessing potential linkages between sea ice retreat/thinning and the region's ancient and unique social-ecological systems is a pressing task. Tundra nomadism remains a vitally important livelihood for indigenous Nenets and their large reindeer herds. Warming summer air temperatures have been linked to more frequent and sustained summer high-pressure systems over West Siberia, Russia, but not to sea ice retreat. At the same time, autumn/winter rain-on-snow (ROS) events have become more frequent and intense. Here, we review evidence for autumn atmospheric warming and precipitation increases over Arctic coastal lands in proximity to BKS ice loss. Two major ROS events during November 2006 and 2013 led to massive winter reindeer mortality episodes on the Yamal Peninsula. Fieldwork with migratory herders has revealed that the ecological and socio-economic impacts from the catastrophic 2013 event will unfold for years to come. The suggested link between sea ice loss, more frequent and intense ROS events and high reindeer mortality has serious implications for the future of tundra Nenets nomadism., (© 2016 The Authors.)

Published
2016
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49. Sensitivity of global terrestrial ecosystems to climate variability.

Author

Seddon AW, Macias-Fauria M, Long PR, Benz D, and Willis KJ

Subjects
Americas, Arctic Regions, Asia, Australia, Environmental Monitoring, Human Activities, Models, Theoretical, Rainforest, Temperature, Time Factors, Trees, Water analysis, Acclimatization, Climate Change, Ecosystem, Geographic Mapping, Plant Physiological Phenomena
Abstract

The identification of properties that contribute to the persistence and resilience of ecosystems despite climate change constitutes a research priority of global relevance. Here we present a novel, empirical approach to assess the relative sensitivity of ecosystems to climate variability, one property of resilience that builds on theoretical modelling work recognizing that systems closer to critical thresholds respond more sensitively to external perturbations. We develop a new metric, the vegetation sensitivity index, that identifies areas sensitive to climate variability over the past 14 years. The metric uses time series data derived from the moderate-resolution imaging spectroradiometer (MODIS) enhanced vegetation index, and three climatic variables that drive vegetation productivity (air temperature, water availability and cloud cover). Underlying the analysis is an autoregressive modelling approach used to identify climate drivers of vegetation productivity on monthly timescales, in addition to regions with memory effects and reduced response rates to external forcing. We find ecologically sensitive regions with amplified responses to climate variability in the Arctic tundra, parts of the boreal forest belt, the tropical rainforest, alpine regions worldwide, steppe and prairie regions of central Asia and North and South America, the Caatinga deciduous forest in eastern South America, and eastern areas of Australia. Our study provides a quantitative methodology for assessing the relative response rate of ecosystems--be they natural or with a strong anthropogenic signature--to environmental variability, which is the first step towards addressing why some regions appear to be more sensitive than others, and what impact this has on the resilience of ecosystem service provision and human well-being.

Published
2016
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50. Remote assessment of locally important ecological features across landscapes: how representative of reality?

Author

Willis KJ, Seddon AW, Long PR, Jeffers ES, Caithness N, Thurston M, Smit MG, Hagemann R, and Macias-Fauria M

Subjects
Cities, Databases, Factual, Environmental Monitoring, Uncertainty, Biodiversity, Spacecraft
Abstract

The local ecological footprinting tool (LEFT) uses globally available databases, modeling, and algorithms to, remotely assess locally important ecological features across landscapes based on five criteria: biodiversity (beta-diversity), vulnerability (threatened species), fragmentation, connectivity, and resilience. This approach can be applied to terrestrial landscapes at a 300-m resolution within a given target area. Input is minimal (latitude and longitude) and output is a computer-generated report and series of maps that both individually and synthetically depict the relative value of each ecological criteria. A key question for any such tool, however, is how representative is the remotely obtained output compared to what is on the ground. Here, we present the results from comparing remotely- vs. field-generated outputs from the LEFT tool on two distinct study areas for beta-diversity and distribution of threatened species (vulnerability), the two fields computed by LEFT for which such an approach is feasible. The comparison method consists of a multivariate measure of similarity between two fields based on discrete wavelet transforms, and reveals consistent agreement across a wide range of spatial scales. These results suggest that remote assessment tools such as LEFT hold great potential for determining key ecological features across landscapes and for being utilized in preplanning biodiversity assessment tools.

Published
2015
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