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We consider a system of interacting random walks known as the frog model. Let $\mathcal{K}_n=(\mathcal{V}_n,\mathcal{E}_n)$ be the complete graph with $n$ vertices and $o\in\mathcal{V}_n$ be a special vertex called the root. Initially, $1+\eta_o$ active particles are placed at the root and $\eta_v$ inactive particles are placed at each other vertex $v\in\mathcal{V}_n\setminus\{o\}$, where $\{\eta_v\}_{v\in \mathcal{V}_n}$ are i.i.d. random variables. At each instant of time, each active particle may die with probability $1-p$. Every active particle performs a simple random walk on $\mathcal{K}_n$ until the moment it dies, activating all inactive particles it hits along its path. Let $V_\infty(\mathcal{K}_n,p)$ be the total number of visited vertices by some active particle up to the end of the process, after all active particles have died. In this paper, we show that $V_\infty(\mathcal{K}_n,p_n)\geq (1-\epsilon)n$ with high probability for any fixed $\epsilon>0$ whenever $p_n\rightarrow 1$. Furthermore, we establish the critical growth rate of $p_n$ so that all vertices are visited. Specifically, we show that if $p_n=1-\frac{\alpha}{\log n}$, then $V_\infty(\mathcal{K}_n,p_n)=n$ with high probability whenever $0<\alphaE(\eta)$., Comment: 20 pages

We consider the dynamics of a population spatially structured in colonies that are vulnerable to catastrophic events occurring at random times, which randomly reduce their population size and compel survivors to disperse to neighboring areas. The dispersion behavior of survivors is critically significant for the survival of the entire species. In this paper, we consider an uniform dispersion scheme, where all possible survivor groupings are equally probable. The aim of the survivors is to establish new colonies, with individuals who settle in empty sites potentially initiating a new colony by themselves. However, all other individuals succumb to the catastrophe. We consider the number of dispersal options for surviving individuals in the aftermath of a catastrophe to be a fixed value $d$ within the neighborhood. In this context, we conceptualize the evolution of population dynamics occurring over a homogeneous tree. We investigate the conditions necessary for these populations to survive, presenting pertinent bounds for survival probability, the number of colonized vertices, the extent of dispersion within the population, and the mean time to extinction for the entire population., Comment: 22 pages

We consider two simple stochastic models for a pathogen population in the presence of an immune response, where we assume that the immune system must first get rid of the pathogen type with the lowest fitness in each ancestral lineage of pathogen types present in the host. In the first model, the pathogens reproduce independently at rate $\lambda$ without spatial restrictions. The second model is similar but evolves on a graph. In this case, each pathogen occupies a site and can only place offspring on adjacent empty sites. In both models, when a new pathogen is born, it has the same type as its parent with probability $1-r$. Conversely, with probability $r$, a beneficial mutation occurs, generating a new pathogen type with a higher fitness than its parent's type. We assume that the immune system develops an effective immune response, independently at rate 1, for each pathogen type without ancestral types that are still alive, which simultaneously kills all pathogens of that type. Our main results are a complete characterization of the survival-extinction phase diagram of the first model, and sufficient conditions for survival and extinction of the second model on $\mathbb{Z}^d.$ A comparison with similar models introduced by Schinazi and Schweinsberg (2008), where mutations are not necessarily beneficial and the immune response for each pathogen type occurs independently at rate 1, reveals that the first and second models exhibit more complex and comparable behaviors, respectively., Comment: 25 pages, 3 figures

We introduce the following model for the evolution of a population. At every discrete time $j\geq 0$ exactly one individual is introduced in the population and is assigned a death probability $c_j$ sampled from $C$, a fixed probability distribution. We think of $c_j$ as a genetic marker of this individual. At every time $n\geq 1$ every individual in the population dies or not independently of each other with its corresponding death probability $c_j$. We show that the population size goes to infinity if and only if $E(1/C)=\infty$. This is in sharp contrast with the model with constant $c$ and with the model in random environment (same random $c_n$ for all individuals at time $n$). Both of these models are always positive recurrent. Thus, genetic diversity does seem to help survival! We also study the point process associated with our model. We show that the limit point process has an accumulation point near 0 for the $c'$s. For certain $C$ distributions, including the uniform, the limit process properly rescaled is also shown to converge to a non-homogeneous Poisson process.

We consider a discrete time population model for which each individual alive at time $n$ survives independently of everybody else at time $n+1$ with probability $\beta_n$. The sequence $(\beta_n)$ is i.i.d. and constitutes our random environment. Moreover, at every time $n$ we add $Z_n$ individuals to the population. The sequence $(Z_n)$ is also i.i.d. We find sufficient conditions for null recurrence and transience (positive recurrence has been addressed by Neuts). We apply our results to a particular $(Z_n)$ distribution and deterministic $\beta$. This particular case shows a rather unusual phase transition in $\beta$ in the sense that the Markov chain goes from transience to null recurrence without ever reaching positive recurrence.

The frog model is a system of interacting random walks. Initially, there is one particle at each vertex of a connected graph $\mathcal{G}$. All particles are inactive at time zero, except for the one which is placed at the root of $\mathcal{G}$, which is active. At each instant of time, each active particle may die with probability $1-p$. Once an active particle survives, it jumps on one of its nearest vertices, chosen with uniform probability, performing a discrete time simple symmetric random walk (SRW) on $\mathcal{G}$. Up to the time it dies, it activates all inactive particles it hits along its way. From the moment they are activated on, every such particle starts to walk, performing exactly the same dynamics, independent of everything else. In this paper, we take $\mathcal{G}$ as the $n-$complete graph ($\mathcal{K}_n$, a finite graph with each pair of vertices linked by an edge). We study the limit in $n$ of the coverage ratio, that is, the proportion of visited vertices by some active particle up to the end of the process, after all active particles have died.

Recently, different dispersion strategies in population models subject to geometric catastrophes have been considered as strategies to improve the chance of po\-pu\-lation's survival. Such dispersion strategies have been contrasted with the strategy where there is no dispersion, comparing the probabilities of survival. In this article, we contrast survival strategies when extinction occurs almost surely, evaluating which strategy prolongs population's life span. Our results allow one to analyze what is the best strategy for survival based on parameters as the probability that each individual exposed to catastrophe survives, the growth rate of the colony, the type of dispersion and the spatial restrictions., Comment: 19 pages, 5 figures. arXiv admin note: substantial text overlap with arXiv:2012.12027

We consider stochastic growth models to represent population dynamics subject to geometric catastrophes. We analyze different dispersion schemes after catastrophes, to study how these schemes impact the population viability and comparing them with the scheme where there is no dispersion. In the schemes with dispersion, we consider that each colony, after the catastrophe event, has $d$ new positions to place its survivors. We find out that when $d = 2$ no type of dispersion considered improves the chance of survival, at best it matches the scheme where there is no dispersion. When $d = 3$, based on the survival probability, we conclude that dispersion may be an advantage or not, depending on its type, the rate of colony growth and the probability that an individual will survive when exposed to a catastrophe., Comment: 17 pages, 4 figures

We propose a stochastic model for evolution through mutation and natural selection of a population that evolves on a $\bbT_d^+$ tree. We think of this model as a way of describing the evolution fitness landscape of a population. We obtain sharp and distinct conditions on the set of parameters for extinction and survival., Comment: 9 pages

We investigate a basic immigration process where colonies grow, during a random time, according to a general counting process until collapse. Upon collapse a random amount of individuals survive. These survivors try independently establishing new colonies at neighbour sites. Here we consider this general process subject to two schemes, Poisson growth with geometric catastrophe and Yule growth with binomial catastrophe. Independent of everything else colonies growth, during an exponential time, as a Poisson (or Yule) process and right after that exponential time their size is reduced according to geometric (or binomial) law. Each survivor tries independently, to start a new colony at a neighbour site of a homogeneous tree. That colony will thrive until its collapse, and so on. We study conditions on the set of parameters for these processes to survive, present relevant bounds for the probability of survival, for the number of vertices that were colonized and for the reach of the colonies compared to the starting point., Comment: 22 pages, 2 figures

The study of rumor models from a percolation theory point of view has gained a few adepts in the last few years. The persistence of a rumor, which may consistently spread out throughout a population can be associated to the existence of a giant component containing the origin of a graph. That is one of the main interest in percolation theory. In this paper we present a quick review of recent results on rumor models of this type., Comment: 30 pages. arXiv admin note: text overlap with arXiv:1305.6802 by other authors

We study a system of random walks, known as the frog model, starting from a profile of independent Poisson($\lambda$) particles per site, with one additional active particle planted at some vertex $\mathbf{o}$ of a finite connected simple graph $G=(V,E)$. Initially, only the particles occupying $\mathbf{o}$ are active. Active particles perform $t \in \mathbb{N} \cup \{\infty \}$ steps of the walk they picked before vanishing and activate all inactive particles they hit. This system is often taken as a model for the spread of an epidemic over a population. Let $\mathcal{R}_t$ be the set of vertices which are visited by the process, when active particles vanish after $t$ steps. We study the susceptibility of the process on the underlying graph, defined as the random quantity $\mathcal{S}(G):=\inf \{t:\mathcal{R}_t=V \}$ (essentially, the shortest particles' lifetime required for the entire population to get infected). We consider the cases that the underlying graph is either a regular expander or a $d$-dimensional torus of side length $n$ (for all $d \ge 1$) $\mathbb{T}_d(n)$ and determine the asymptotic behavior of $\mathcal{S} $ up to a constant factor. In fact, throughout we allow the particle density $\lambda$ to depend on $n$ and for $d \ge 2$ we determine the asymptotic behavior of $\mathcal{S}(\mathbb{T}_d(n))$ up to smaller order terms for a wide range of $\lambda=\lambda_n$., Comment: 59 pages. Final version. To appear in Annals of Applied Probability

We consider stochastic growth models to represent population subject to catastrophes. We analyze the subject from different set ups considering or not spatial restrictions, whether dispersion is a good strategy to increase the population viability. We find out it strongly depends on the effect of a catastrophic event, the spatial constraints of the environment and the probability that each exposed individual survives when a disaster strikes., Comment: 2 figures, 19 pages

Many species live in colonies that thrive for a while and then collapse. Upon collapse very few individuals survive. The survivors start new colonies at other sites that thrive until they collapse, and so on. We introduce spatial and non-spatial stochastic processes for modeling such population dynamic. Besides testing whether dispersion helps survival in a model experiencing large fluctuations, we obtain conditions for the population to get extinct or to survive., Comment: 16 pages, 1 figure

We study a rumour model from a percolation theory and branching process point of view. The existence of a giant component is related to the event where the rumour, which started from the root of a tree, spreads out through an infinite number of its vertices. We present lower and upper bounds for the probability of that event, according to the distribution of the random variables that defines the radius of influence of each individual. We work with Galton-Watson branching trees (homogeneous and non-homogeneous) and spherically symmetric trees which includes homogeneous and $k-$periodic trees., Comment: The project has been deeply edited and now have a new co-author

We consider a non-homogeneous random walks system on $\bbZ$ in which each active particle performs a nearest neighbor random walk and activates all inactive particles it encounters up to a total amount of $L$ jumps. We present necessary and sufficient conditions for the process to survive, which means that an infinite number of random walks become activated., Comment: 3 figures

We derive the strongest individual fitness distribution on a variation for a species survival model proposed by Guiol, Machado and Schinazi \cite{GMS11}. We point out to the fact that this distribution relies on the Gauss hypergeometric function and when $p=\frac{1}{2}$ on the Hypergeometric function type I distribution, Comment: 8 pages, 2 figures

We study an interacting random walk system on Z where at time 0 there is an active particle at 0 and one inactive particle on each site $n \ge 1$. Particles become active when hit by another active particle. Once activated, the particle starting at n performs an asymmetric, translation invariant, nearest neighbor random walk with left jump probability $l_n$. We give conditions for global survival, local survival and infinite activation both in the case where all particles are immortal and in the case where particles have geometrically distributed lifespan (with parameter depending on the starting location of the particle). More precisely, once activated, the particle at n survives at each step with probability $p_n \in [0, 1]$. In particular, in the immortal case, we prove a 0-1 law for the probability of local survival when all particles drift to the right. Besides that, we give sufficient conditions for local survival or local extinction when all particles drift to the left. In the mortal case, we provide sufficient conditions for global survival, local survival and local extinction (which apply to the immortal case with mixed drifts as well). Analysis of explicit examples is provided: we describe completely the phase diagram in the cases $1/2-l_n \sim \pm 1/n^\alpha$, $p_n = 1$ and $1_n-1/2 \sim \pm 1/n^\alpha$, $1-p_n \sim 1/n^\beta$ (where $\alpha,\beta > 0$)., Comment: 24 pages, 4 figures, all major results have been largely improved

A {\it scenery} is a coloring $\xi$ of the integers. Let $\{S_t\}_{t\geq 0}$ be a recurrent random walk on the integers. Observing the scenery $\xi$ along the path of this random walk, one sees the color $\chi_t:=\xi(S_t)$ at time $t$. The {\it scenery reconstruction problem} is concerned with recovering the scenery $\xi$, given only the sequence of observations $\chi:=(\chi_t)_{t\geq 0}$. The scenery reconstruction methods presented to date require the random walk to have bounded increments. Here, we present a new approach for random walks with unbounded increments which works when the tail of the increment distribution decays exponentially fast enough and the scenery has five colors.

We consider a stochastic model for species evolution. A new species is born at rate lambda and a species dies at rate mu. A random number, sampled from a given distribution F, is associated with each new species at the time of birth. Every time there is a death event, the species that is killed is the one with the smallest fitness. We consider the (random) survival time of a species with a given fitness f. We show that the survival time distribution depends crucially on whether ff_c where f_c is a critical fitness that is computed explicitly., Comment: 13 pages

We study a rumour model from a percolation theory and branching process point of view. The existence of a giant component is related to the event where the rumour spreads out trough an infinite number of individuals. We present sharp lower and upper bounds for the probability of that event, according to the distribution of the random variables that defines the radius of influence of each individual., Comment: 13 pages

We study four discrete time stochastic systems on $\bbN$ modeling processes of rumour spreading. The involved individuals can either have an active or a passive role, speaking up or asking for the rumour. The appetite in spreading or hearing the rumour is represented by a set of random variables whose distributions may depend on the individuals. Our goal is to understand - based on those random variables distribution - whether the probability of having an infinite set of individuals knowing the rumour is positive or not.

We propose a realistic generalization of the Maki-Thompson rumour model by assuming that each spreader ceases to propagate the rumour right after being involved in a random number of stifling experiences. We consider the process with a general initial configuration and establish the asymptotic behaviour (and its fluctuation) of the ultimate proportion of ignorants as the population size grows to $\infty$. Our approach leads to explicit formulas so that the limiting proportion of ignorants and its variance can be computed., Comment: 12 pages, to appear in Environmental Modelling & Software

We study a general stochastic rumour model in which an ignorant individual has a certain probability of becoming a stifler immediately upon hearing the rumour. We refer to this special kind of stifler as an uninterested individual. Our model also includes distinct rates for meetings between two spreaders in which both become stiflers or only one does, so that particular cases are the classical Daley-Kendall and Maki-Thompson models. We prove a Law of Large Numbers and a Central Limit Theorem for the proportions of those who ultimately remain ignorant and those who have heard the rumour but become uninterested in it., Comment: 13 pages, to appear in SIAM Journal on Applied Mathematics

We propose a stochastic model for evolution. Births and deaths of species occur with constant probabilities. Each new species is associated with a fitness sampled from the uniform distribution on [0,1]. Every time there is a death event then the type that is killed is the one with the smallest fitness. We show that there is a sharp phase transition when the birth probability is larger than the death probability. The set of species with fitness higher than a certain critical value approach an uniform distribution. On the other hand all the species with fitness less than the critical disappear after a finite (random) time., Comment: 6 pages, 1 figure, TeX, Added references, To appear in Markov Processes and Related Fields