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CT3 ; EnjS4; International audience; As the permafrost region warms, its large organic carbon pool will be increasingly vulnerable to decomposition, combustion, and hydrologic export. Models predict that some portion of this release will be offset by increased production of Arctic and boreal biomass; however, the lack of robust estimates of net carbon balance increases the risk of further overshooting international emissions targets. Precise empirical or model-based assessments of the critical factors driving carbon balance are unlikely in the near future, so to address this gap, we present estimates from 98 permafrost-region experts of the response of biomass, wild␣re, and hydrologic carbon ␣ux to climate change. Results suggest that contrary to model projections, total permafrost-region biomass could decrease due to water stress and disturbance, factors that are not adequately incorporated in current models. Assessments indicate that end-of-the-century organic carbon release from Arctic rivers and collapsing coastlines could increase by 75% while carbon loss via burning could increase four-fold. Experts identi␣ed water balance, shifts in vegetation community, and permafrost degradation as the key sources of uncertainty in predicting future system response. In combination with previous ␣ndings, results suggest the permafrost region will become a carbon source to the atmosphere by 2100 regardless of warming scenario but that 65%–85% of permafrost carbon release can still be avoided if human emissions are actively reduced.

Hydrolyzable organic carbon (OC) comprises a significant component of sedimentary particulate matter transferred from land into oceans via rivers. Its abundance and nature are however not well studied in Arctic river systems, and yet may represent an important pool of carbon whose fate remains unclear in the context of mobilization and related processes associated with a changing climate. Here, we examine the molecular composition and source of hydrolyzable compounds isolated from sedimentary particles derived from nine rivers across the pan-Arctic. Bound fatty acids (b-FAs), hydroxy FAs, n-alkane-α,ω-dioic acids (DAs) and phenols were the major components released upon hydrolysis of these sediments. Among them, b-FAs received considerable inputs from bacterial and/or algal sources, whereas ω-hydroxy FAs, mid-chain substituted acids, DAs, and hydrolyzable phenols were mainly derived from cutin and suberin of higher plants. We further compared the distribution and fate of suberin- and cutin-derived compounds with those of other terrestrial biomarkers (plant wax lipids and lignin phenols) from the same Arctic river sedimentary particles and conducted a benchmark assessment of several biomarker-based indicators of OC source and extent of degradation. While suberin-specific biomarkers were positively correlated with plant-derived high-molecular-weight (HMW) FAs, lignin phenols were correlated with cutin-derived compounds. These correlations suggest that, similar to leaf-derived cutin, lignin was mainly derived from litter and surface soil horizons, whereas suberin and HMW FAs incorporated significant inputs from belowground sources (roots and deeper soil). This conclusion is supported by the negative correlation between lignin phenols and the ratio of suberin-to-cutin biomarkers. Furthermore, the molecular composition of investigated biomarkers differed between Eurasian and North American Arctic rivers: while lignin dominated in the terrestrial OC of Eurasian river sediments, hydrolyzable OC represented a much larger fraction in the sedimentary particles from Colville River. Hence, studies exclusively focusing on either plant wax lipids or lignin phenols will not be able to fully unravel the mobilization and fate of bound OC in Arctic rivers. More comprehensive, multi-molecular investigations are needed to better constrain the land-ocean transfer of carbon in the changing Arctic, including further research on the degradation and transfer of both free and bound components in Arctic river sediments.

A comparison of historical oceanographic data from the Arctic Ocean with that obtained aboard the CCGS Louis s. St. Laurent during the Canada/U.S. 1994 Arctic Ocean Section unequivocally shows that the mid-depth layers of the Arctic Ocean are experiencing a major warming and ventilation event. The intrusion of new water is characterized by (a) higher values in the Atlantic Layer maximum temperatures, (b) a shallower core depth for the temperature maximum, (c) displacement of waters of Pacific origin in the upper 100-200m, and (d) pronounced thermohaline inversions 40-60m thick in the Atlantic Layer and Upper Deep waters. The largest temperature change, as much as 1℃, is seen in the core of the Atlantic Layer, suggesting that the event is related to an increase in the transport and/or temperature of water entering from the North Atlantic.

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Macdonald, Robie W. Gratton, Yves Macdonald, Robie/A-7896-2012 Macdonald, Robie/0000-0002-1141-8520 CCGS Amundsen; CASES (Canadian Arctic Shelf Exchange Study) NSERC network (Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada); Canadian Fund for Innovation; Canadian Coast Guard; Department of Fisheries and Oceans Canada; NSERC Discovery We thank the officers and crew of the CCGS Amundsen for their support and dedication to the CASES expedition. We are indebted to Constance Guignard, Nes Sutherland, Pascale Collin, Simon Belanger, Jens Ehn, Mike Arychuk and Owen Owens for their care and perseverance in collecting and analyzing the TA, TIC and pH samples at sea. Thanks must go to the CTD data acquisition group for these basic but critical measurements and the calibration of the various probes. Most of the plots and maps in this study were created with the ODV Software [Schlitzer, 2009]. We also thank A. Proshutinsky and two anonymous reviewers who provided constructive comments that helped to improve our manuscript. This study was funded through the CASES (Canadian Arctic Shelf Exchange Study) NSERC network (Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada) and a Canadian Fund for Innovation grant to support the upgrade and operation of the CCGS Amundsen. Additional financial contributions were provided by the Canadian Coast Guard, the Strategic Science Fund of the Department of Fisheries and Oceans Canada, and NSERC Discovery grants to A. Mucci and Y. Gratton. 10 AMER GEOPHYSICAL UNION WASHINGTON J GEOPHYS RES-OCEANS; We examined the seasonal variability of water mass distributions in the southeastern Beaufort Sea from data collected between September 2003 and August 2004. Salinity, total alkalinity (TA) and isotopic composition (delta O-18) of seawater were used together as tracers of freshwater input, i.e., meteoric water and sea ice meltwater. We used an optimum multiparameter analysis to identify the different water masses, including the Mackenzie River, sea ice melt (SIM), winter polar mixed layer (PML), upper halocline water (UHW) with core salinity of 33.1 psu (Pacific origin) and Atlantic Water. Computed values of CO2 fugacity in seawater (fCO(2)-sw) show that the surface mixed layer (SML) remains mostly undersaturated (328 +/- 55 mu atm, n = 552) with respect to the average atmospheric CO2 concentration (380 +/- 5 mu atm) over the study period. The influence of the Mackenzie River (fCO(2-SW) > 500 mu atm) was relatively small in the southeastern Beaufort Sea, and significant fractions were only observed on the inner Mackenzie Shelf. The contribution of sea ice melt (fCO(2-SW) < 300 mu atm) to the SML could reach 30% beyond the shelf break and close to the ice pack in autumn. The density of the PML increased through the winter due to cooling and brine rejection. The winter PML reached a maximum depth of 70 m in late April. The UHW (fCO(2-SW) > 600 mu atm) was usually located between 120 and 180 m depth, but could contribute to the SML during wind-driven upwelling events, in summer and autumn, and during brine-driven eddies, in winter.