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1. Unravelling compound risks of hydrological extremes in a changing climate: Typology, methods and futures

Author

Chun, Kwok P, Octavianti, Thanti, Papacharalampous, Georgia, Tyralis, Hristos, Sutanto, Samuel J., Terskii, Pavel, Mazzoglio, Paola, Treppiedi, Dario, Rivera, Juan, Dogulu, Nilay, Olusola, Adeyemi, Dieppois, Bastien, Dembélé, Moctar, Moulds, Simon, Li, Cheng, Morales-Marin, Luis Alejandro, Macdonald, Neil, Amoussou, Toundji Olivier, Yonaba, Roland, Obahoundje, Salomon, Massei, Nicolas, Hannah, David M., Chidepudi, Sivarama Krishna Reddy, and Hamududu, Byman

Subjects
Physics - Physics and Society, Physics - Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics
Abstract

We have witnessed and experienced increasing compound extreme events resulting from simultaneous or sequential occurrence of multiple events in a changing climate. In addition to a growing demand for a clearer explanation of compound risks from a hydrological perspective, there has been a lack of attention paid to socioeconomic factors driving and impacted by these risks. Through a critical review and co-production approaches, we identified four types of compound hydrological events based on autocorrelated, multivariate, and spatiotemporal patterns. A framework to quantify compound risks based on conditional probability is offered, including an argument on the potential use of generative Artificial Intelligence (AI) algorithms for identifying emerging trends and patterns for climate change. Insights for practices are discussed, highlighting the implications for disaster risk reduction and knowledge co-production. Our argument centres on the importance of meaningfully considering the socioeconomic contexts in which compound risks may have impacts, and the need for interdisciplinary collaboration to effectively translate climate science to climate actions., Comment: 19 pages, 1 figure

Published
2024

6. Towards a Step Change in Co-Production for Climate Resilience

Author

Golding, Nicola, Ashton, Jenna, Brown, Kate, Chan, Steven, Coles, Tim, Fowler, Hayley, Fuller, Elizabeth, Harrison, Paula, Harvey-Fishenden, Alice, Macdonald, Neil, Sefton, Christine, Dessai, Suraje, editor, Lonsdale, Kate, editor, Lowe, Jason, editor, and Harcourt, Rachel, editor

Published
2024
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9. Towards a Step Change in Co-Production for Climate Resilience

Author

Golding, Nicola, primary, Ashton, Jenna, additional, Brown, Kate, additional, Chan, Steven, additional, Coles, Tim, additional, Fowler, Hayley, additional, Fuller, Elizabeth, additional, Harrison, Paula, additional, Harvey-Fishenden, Alice, additional, Macdonald, Neil, additional, and Sefton, Christine, additional

Published
2023
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11. Conceptual Mathematics via Literate Programming

Author

Benson, Ian, Darby, Jim, MacDonald, Neil, and Sigal, Jesse

Subjects
Mathematics - History and Overview, Computer Science - Programming Languages, 97B50, 97P40, K.3.2
Abstract

Recent developments in computer programming and in mathematics suggest that there is a strong case for a new way of introducing programming to enhance the learning of school mathematics. The article describes a collaboration of mathematics and computer science teachers to solve the Josephus problem. We demonstrate how a programming approach based on both types and functions can make a vastly improved contribution to learning mathematics than the less successful use of conventional computer programming in Scratch., Comment: 8 pages, 2 figures, under review by Mathematics Teaching, Association of Teachers of Mathematics (ATM)

Published
2022

13. Preoperative N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide and myocardial injury after stopping or continuing renin–angiotensin system inhibitors in noncardiac surgery: a prespecified analysis of a phase 2 randomised controlled multicentre trial

Author

Ackland, Gareth, Martin, Tim, Fernandez, Maria, Seidu, Fatima, Pakats, Mari-Liis, Mahr, Otto, MacDonald, Neil, Santos, Filipa Dos, Garcia, Amaia Arrieta, Uddin, Ruzena, Begum, Salma, Pearse, Rupert, Subhedar, Emily, Wan, Yize, Patel, Akshaykumar, Shahid, Tasnin, Gooneratne, Mevan, Trainer, Charlotte, Griffiths, Bethan, Dunkley, Steven, May, Shaun, Walker, Sophie, Fowler, Alexander, Stephens, Timothy, Oliveira, Monica, Januszewska, Marta, Niebrzegowska, Edyta, Amaral, Vanessa, Kassam, Jamila, Young, Sophie, Ahmad, Shanaz, Whalley, Jan, Haines, Ryan, Hui, Sara, Hammond, Rob, Crane, David, Brealey, David, Bampoe, Sohail, Stephens, Robert, Reyes, Anna, Martir, Gladys, Diaz, Chimverly, Cleland, Stuart, Minto, Gary, Wilmshurst, Natasha, Affleck, Debbie-Claire, Ward, Tracy, Werrett, Gavin, Cummins, Susan, Amber, Alan, Biffen, Andrew, Boumphrey, Stephen, Cann, Elizabeth, Eglinton, Charlotte, Jones, Elaine, Mwadeyi, Memory, Piesley, Sam, Cowan, Richard, Alderton, Julie, Reed, Fiona, Smith, Joanne, Turner, Amy, Madziva, Lorraine, Patrick, Abigail, Harris, Penny, Lang, Harry, Middleditch, Alexander, Pickering, Anthony, O’Donovan, Catherine, Houlihan, Rebecca, Jarvis, Rosina, Shrimpton, Andrew, Farmery, Toni, Tucker, Katy, Davis, Danielle, Somanth, Sameer, Duncan, Louise, Melsom, Helen, Clark, Sarah, Kent, Melanie, Wood, Michelle, Laidlaw, Ami, Matheson-Smith, Tracy, Potts, Kathryn, Kay, Andrea, Hobson, Stefanie, Sear, John, Kapil, Vikas, Archbold, Andrew, Wilson, Matt, Dndrejaj, Drilona, Ly, Dennis, Gutierrez del Arroyo, Ana, Abbott, Tom E.F., Dias, Priyanthi, Somanath, Sameer, Pearse, Rupert M., and Ackland, Gareth L.

Published
2024
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14. ON SHAME

Author

Macdonald, Neil

Subjects
General interest, News, opinion and commentary
Abstract

Byline: Neil Macdonald Toronto -- This kind of shaming is toxic and deeply unjust. It causes no end of suffering. However, I believe it's a mistake to dismiss the notion [...]

Published
2024

15. Heart rate recovery after orthostatic challenge and cardiopulmonary exercise testing in older individuals: prospective multicentre observational cohort study

Author

James, Aaron, Bruce, David, Tetlow, Nicholas, Patel, Amour B.U., Black, Ethel, Whitehead, Nicole, Ratcliff, Anna, Jamie Humphreys, Alice, MacDonald, Neil, McDonnell, Gayle, Raobaikady, Ravishankar, Thirugnanasambanthar, Jeeveththaa, Ravindran, Jeuela I., Minto, Gary, Abbott, Tom E.F., Jhanji, Shaman, Milliken, Don, and Ackland, Gareth L.

Published
2023
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16. Epidemiology of Early Monkeypox Virus Transmission in Sexual Networks of Gay and Bisexual Men, England, 2022

Author

Vusirikala, Amoolya, Charles, Hannah, Balasegaram, Sooria, Macdonald, Neil, Kumar, Deepti, Barker-Burnside, Ceri, Cumiskey, Kerry, Dickinson, Michelle, Watson, Michelle, Olufon, Oluwakemi, Thorley, Katie, Blomquist, Paula, Anderson, Charlotte, Ma, Thomas, Mohammed, Hamish, Perkins, Samantha, Paranthaman, Karthik, Manley, Petra, Edeghere, Obaghe, Sinka, Katy, and Prochazka, Mateo

Subjects
England -- Health aspects, Human monkeypox -- Statistics -- Risk factors, Sexually transmitted diseases -- Statistics -- Risk factors, Gay men -- Statistics -- Health aspects, Disease transmission -- Statistics -- Risk factors, Health
Abstract

Monkeypox is a zoonotic viral infection endemic to West and Central Africa. Human-to-human transmission of monkeypox virus (MPXV) is thought to be primarily through close skin-to-skin contact; other transmission routes [...]

Published
2022
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18. Barriers to the use of goal directed therapy in a high risk surgical patient group

Author

Macdonald, Neil

Subjects
617.9, Goal directed therapy, Acute kidney injury, high risk surgical patients, post surgical complication, isotropes, fluid boluses, cardiac output, oxygen delivery
Abstract

Background Goal directed therapy, the utilisation of fluids and inotropes to optimise cardiovascular performance of tissue oxygen delivery during surgery, has been shown in small studies to reduce complications after major surgery. The OPTIMISE trial was conducted to see if this benefit of morbidity reduction seen with the use of goal directed therapy was replicated in a larger pragmatic trial. I hypothesised that there were potential barriers to the use of goal directed therapy under these conditions that may reduce the clinical effectiveness of this treatment approach. Methods This thesis is based on sub-studies of the OPTIMISE trial examining the difficulties in utilising goal directed therapy as a treatment that focused primarily on the administration of fluids via an algorithm and the effect of goal directed therapy on a specific complication. Acute kidney injury was chosen as an important postoperative complication that was directly affected by fluid administration. Results OPTIMISE did not demonstrate a statistically significant effect of a reduction in complications in a population of 732 high risk surgical patients receiving goal directed therapy. Compliance to the goal directed therapy algorithm was mostly good across seventeen hospital sites. The use of dynamic fluid markers was not shown to be beneficial as indicators of when to give fluid boluses in the perioperative period. Goal directed therapy did not protect against acute kidney injury in the high risk surgical population. There was no difference in the incidence of acute kidney injury in the goal directed therapy group and the usual care group as measured by standardised criteria and measured by a urinary biomarker. Conclusions Goal directed therapy did not result in a significant reduction in complications in a high risk surgical population. However, there are some barriers to the use of goal directed therapy particularly the evidence base for the effectiveness of goal directed therapy and understanding the mechanisms, if any, by which goal directed therapy improves outcomes. Further work should focus on establishing supporting the current evidence base for goal directed therapy and seeking the mechanism by which this may improve outcomes.

Published
2019

20. Developing a large-scale dataset of flood fatalities for territories in the Euro-Mediterranean region, FFEM-DB

Author

Papagiannaki, Katerina, Petrucci, Olga, Diakakis, Michalis, Kotroni, Vassiliki, Aceto, Luigi, Bianchi, Cinzia, Brázdil, Rudolf, Gelabert, Miquel Grimalt, Inbar, Moshe, Kahraman, Abdullah, Kılıç, Özgenur, Krahn, Astrid, Kreibich, Heidi, Llasat, Maria Carmen, Llasat-Botija, Montserrat, Macdonald, Neil, de Brito, Mariana Madruga, Mercuri, Michele, Pereira, Susana, Řehoř, Jan, Geli, Joan Rossello, Salvati, Paola, Vinet, Freddy, and Zêzere, José Luis

Published
2022
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23. Wound cultures : explorations of embodiment in visual culture in the age of HIV/AIDS

Author

Macdonald, Neil, Lomas, David, and Pearl, Monica

Subjects
700, HIV/AIDS, Visual Culture, Art History, Gender, Sexuality
Abstract

This thesis employs the bodily wound as a metaphor for exploring HIV/AIDS in visual culture. In particular it connects issues of bodily penetration, sexuality and mortality with pre-existing anxieties around the integrity of the male body and identity. The thesis is structured around four case studies, none of which can be said to be ‘about’ HIV/AIDS in any straightforward way, and a theoretical and historical overview in the introduction. In doing so it demonstrates that our understanding of HIV/AIDS is always connected to highly entrenched ways of thinking, particularly around gender and embodiment. The introduction sets out the issues around HIV/AIDS particularly as they relate to visual culture and promotes the work of Georges Bataille and Jacques Derrida as philosophical antecedents of queer theory, a body of ideas that emerges alongside HIV/AIDS and is intimately connected with it. Chapter one continues to engage with Bataille through the work of Ron Athey. Athey’s work uses religious and sacrificial imagery, wounding and bodily penetration to explore living in the world as an HIV-positive man. The work of Mary Douglas, who argued that the individual body could stand in for the social body, along with Leo Bersani, who argues that male penetration is tantamount to subjective dissolution are instructive in this regard. The second chapter examines how Bataille’s work has been incorporated into the discourse of art history but subject to strategic exclusions that masked its engagement with sexuality, corporeality and politics at the height of the AIDS crisis in the western world. It argues that the work of David Wojnarowicz addresses similar concerns but in an embodied, activist form. The third chapter looks at a film by François Ozon from 2005 and argues that, through photography and trauma discourse, it returns viewers to a time when HIV infection was invariably terminal and fatal. The film, therefore, is an engagement with mortality on the part of a young man. The final chapter looks at the films of Pedro Almodóvar to argue that his films simultaneously undercut our expectations around gender and sexuality while promoting an understanding of sexual difference as the originary experience of loss in our lives. The work of Judith Butler is instructive in this regard and also draws out its connections and implications to HIV/AIDS. In conclusion the thesis argues that HIV/AIDS, understood as a wound to the idea of an integral, stable and sacrosanct body, has made such an understanding of the body untenable and that this has enabling and productive consequences for our understanding of gender and sexuality.

Published
2017

25. Putting climate resilience in its place: developing spatially literate climate adaptation initiatives

Author

Dessai, Suraje, Lonsdale, Kate, Lowe, Jason, Harcourt, Rachel, Garry, Freya, O'Hare, Paul, Scannell, Claire, Ashton, Jenna, Davies, Michael, Freeborough, Katy, Kennedy-Asser, Alan, Macdonald, Neil, Scott-Bottoms, Stephen, Sharp, Liz, Dessai, Suraje, Lonsdale, Kate, Lowe, Jason, Harcourt, Rachel, Garry, Freya, O'Hare, Paul, Scannell, Claire, Ashton, Jenna, Davies, Michael, Freeborough, Katy, Kennedy-Asser, Alan, Macdonald, Neil, Scott-Bottoms, Stephen, and Sharp, Liz

Abstract

Understanding the socioeconomic, cultural, historical and political nuances of a place is essential for realising effective local decision-making for climate action. People are central to understanding place-based risk and resilience, with consideration of inequality and vulnerability required for effective place-based climate adaptation. Temporality is important. Place is not fixed, but changes over time, together with the community that inhabits it. Discussing and sharing community knowledge increases the likelihood of successful creation and implementation of climate adaptation practices. A sense of place can be deployed to build connections between people, across policy and between scales.

Published
2024

27. Early elevation in plasma high-sensitivity troponin T and morbidity after elective noncardiac surgery: prospective multicentre observational cohort study

Author

Pearse, Rupert, Niebrzegowska, Edyta, Wragg, Andrew, Archbold, Andrew, Kam, Elisa, Everingham, Kirsty, Bodger, Phoebe, Creary, Thais, Bloom, Ben, Carter, Alice, MacDonald, Neil, Abbott, Tom E.F., Shah, Nirav, Mrozek, Katarzyna, Richardson, Amy, Fowler, Alex, Rob, Zakaria, Ackland, Gareth, Stephens, Robert, Reyes, Anna, Paredes, Laura Gallego, Sultan, Pervez, Cain, David, Whittle, John, Edwards, Mark, Woldman, Simon, Gutierrez del Arroyo, Ana, Karmali, Shamir, Williams, Colin, Rushton, A., Welters, I., Leuwer, Martin, Parker, Jane, Sapsford, Robert J., Barth, Julian, Scott, Julian, Hall, Alistair, Howell, Simon, Lobley, Michaela, Woods, Janet, Howard, Susannah, Fletcher, Joanne, Dewhirst, Nikki, Ackland, Gareth L., Jones, Timothy F., and Pearse, Rupert M.

Published
2020
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29. Current European flood-rich period exceptional compared with past 500 years

Author

Blöschl, Günter, Kiss, Andrea, Viglione, Alberto, Barriendos, Mariano, Böhm, Oliver, Brázdil, Rudolf, Coeur, Denis, Demarée, Gaston, Llasat, Maria Carmen, Macdonald, Neil, Retsö, Dag, Roald, Lars, Schmocker-Fackel, Petra, Amorim, Inês, Bělínová, Monika, Benito, Gerardo, Bertolin, Chiara, Camuffo, Dario, Cornel, Daniel, Doktor, Radosław, Elleder, Líbor, Enzi, Silvia, Garcia, João Carlos, Glaser, Rüdiger, Hall, Julia, Haslinger, Klaus, Hofstätter, Michael, Komma, Jürgen, Limanówka, Danuta, Lun, David, Panin, Andrei, Parajka, Juraj, Petrić, Hrvoje, Rodrigo, Fernando S., Rohr, Christian, Schönbein, Johannes, Schulte, Lothar, Silva, Luís Pedro, Toonen, Willem H. J., Valent, Peter, Waser, Jürgen, and Wetter, Oliver

Published
2020
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37. Changing climate both increases and decreases European river floods

Author

Blöschl, Günter, Hall, Julia, Viglione, Alberto, Perdigão, Rui A. P., Parajka, Juraj, Merz, Bruno, Lun, David, Arheimer, Berit, Aronica, Giuseppe T., Bilibashi, Ardian, Boháč, Miloň, Bonacci, Ognjen, Borga, Marco, Čanjevac, Ivan, Castellarin, Attilio, Chirico, Giovanni B., Claps, Pierluigi, Frolova, Natalia, Ganora, Daniele, Gorbachova, Liudmyla, Gül, Ali, Hannaford, Jamie, Harrigan, Shaun, Kireeva, Maria, Kiss, Andrea, Kjeldsen, Thomas R., Kohnová, Silvia, Koskela, Jarkko J., Ledvinka, Ondrej, Macdonald, Neil, Mavrova-Guirguinova, Maria, Mediero, Luis, Merz, Ralf, Molnar, Peter, Montanari, Alberto, Murphy, Conor, Osuch, Marzena, Ovcharuk, Valeryia, Radevski, Ivan, Salinas, José L., Sauquet, Eric, Šraj, Mojca, Szolgay, Jan, Volpi, Elena, Wilson, Donna, Zaimi, Klodian, and Živković, Nenad

Published
2019
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39. Nutritional Recommendations for the Management of Sarcopenia

Author

Morley, John E, Argiles, Josep M, Evans, William J, Bhasin, Shalender, Cella, David, Deutz, Nicolaas EP, Doehner, Wolfram, Fearon, Ken CH, Ferrucci, Luigi, Hellerstein, Marc K, Kalantar-Zadeh, Kamyar, Lochs, Herbert, MacDonald, Neil, Mulligan, Kathleen, Muscaritoli, Maurizio, Ponikowski, Piotr, Posthauer, Mary Ellen, Fanelli, Filippo Rossi, Schambelan, Morrie, Schols, Annemie MWJ, Schuster, Michael W, Anker, Stefan D, and The Society for Sarcopenia, Cachexia

Subjects
Health Services and Systems, Nursing, Public Health, Health Sciences, Aging, Prevention, Nutrition, Complementary and Integrative Health, Musculoskeletal, Aged, Aged, 80 and over, Guidelines as Topic, Humans, Sarcopenia, Society for Sarcopenia, Cachexia, and Wasting Disease, Clinical Sciences, Public Health and Health Services, Geriatrics, Health services and systems, Public health
Abstract

The Society for Sarcopenia, Cachexia, and Wasting Disease convened an expert panel to develop nutritional recommendations for prevention and management of sarcopenia. Exercise (both resistance and aerobic) in combination with adequate protein and energy intake is the key component of the prevention and management of sarcopenia. Adequate protein supplementation alone only slows loss of muscle mass. Adequate protein intake (leucine-enriched balanced amino acids and possibly creatine) may enhance muscle strength. Low 25(OH) vitamin D levels require vitamin D replacement.

Published
2010

41. Changing climate shifts timing of European floods

Author

Blöschl, Günter, Hall, Julia, Parajka, Juraj, Perdigão, Rui A. P., Merz, Bruno, Arheimer, Berit, Aronica, Giuseppe T., Bilibashi, Ardian, Bonacci, Ognjen, Borga, Marco, Čanjevac, Ivan, Castellarin, Attilio, Chirico, Giovanni B., Claps, Pierluigi, Fiala, Károly, Frolova, Natalia, Gorbachova, Liudmyla, Gül, Ali, Hannaford, Jamie, Harrigan, Shaun, Kireeva, Maria, Kiss, Andrea, Kjeldsen, Thomas R., Kohnová, Silvia, Koskela, Jarkko J., Ledvinka, Ondrej, Macdonald, Neil, Mavrova-Guirguinova, Maria, Mediero, Luis, Merz, Ralf, Molnar, Peter, Montanari, Alberto, Murphy, Conor, Osuch, Marzena, Ovcharuk, Valeryia, Radevski, Ivan, Rogger, Magdalena, Salinas, José L., Sauquet, Eric, Šraj, Mojca, Szolgay, Jan, Viglione, Alberto, Volpi, Elena, Wilson, Donna, Zaimi, Klodian, and Živković, Nenad

Published
2017

42. Early prehabilitation in suspected locally advanced and metastatic lung cancer

Author

Phillips, Iain, primary, Petrie, Rebecca, additional, Allan, Lindsey, additional, Hall, Peter, additional, Walton, Abi, additional, McMillan, Debbie, additional, Peacock, Catriona, additional, Primrose, Lorraine, additional, Vallet, Mahéva, additional, Mencnarowksi, Julie, additional, MacDonald, Neil, additional, Mackean, Melanie, additional, and Barrie, Colin, additional

Published
2023
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45. Trends in coagulase-negative staphylococci (CoNS), England, 2010–2021

Author

Paranthaman, Karthik, primary, Wilson, Allegra, additional, Verlander, Neville, additional, Rooney, Graeme, additional, Macdonald, Neil, additional, Nsonwu, Olisaeloka, additional, Hope, Russell, additional, Fleming, Paul, additional, Hatcher, James, additional, Ogundipe, Enitan, additional, Ratnaraja, Natasha, additional, Wan, Yu, additional, Pichon, Bruno, additional, Westrop, Samantha J., additional, Brown, Colin S., additional, and Demirjian, Alicia, additional

Published
2023
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48. Structure of the virtual photon at HERA

Author

Macdonald, Neil Scott

Subjects
539.72, HERA STORAGE RING, VIRTUAL PARTICLES, PHOTONS, PARTICLE STRUCTURE, POSITRONS, LEPTON-PROTON INTERACTIONS, DIFFERENTIAL CROSS SECTIONS, INCLUSIVE INTERACTIONS, JETS, PARTON MODEL, MONTE CARLO METHOD
Abstract

The dependence of the structure of the photon on its virtuality, Q2, and on the scale of the probing jets, is investigated by measuring the reaction e+p → e+ + jet + jet + X with the ZEUS detector at HERA. Samples of such events ranging from Q2 ≈ 0 GeV2 to Q2 of 5000 GeV2 have been selected from the data taken in 1996 and 1997, corresponding to an integrated luminosity of 38.1 pb-1. The measured inclusive differential dijet cross section dsigma/dxobsgamma is presented as a function of Q2 and the square of the transverse energy of the jets, E2T, where xgammaobs is an estimator of the fraction of the photon's momentum participating in the hard dijet subprocess, and compared with the predictions of leading order Monte Carlo programs for various photon parton distribution functions. The ratio of dijet cross sections with xgammaobs 0.75 show the number of events exhibiting resolved photonic structure to decrease relative to those events without such structure as the photon virtuality increases, whilst the dependence on the scale of the probing jets is small. In comparing simulated Monte Carlo events with the data, it is found that events which simulate photonic structure are needed up to a virtuality of at least 10.5 GeV2.

Published
1999

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