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Objectives: To revise the estimates of maternal age specific live birth prevalence of Down's syndrome in the absence of antenatal screening and selective termination using newly available data. Setting and Design: Data were used from the National Down Syndrome Cytogenetic Register (NDSCR), which contains information on nearly all antenatally or postnatally diagnosed cases of Down's syndrome in which a karyotype was confirmed between 1989 and 1998 in England and Wales. It is the largest single series of data on the prevalence of Down's syndrome. Results and conclusion: The prevalence does not continue increasing at an increasing rate with age above age 45 as has been previously assumed. Above this age the rate of increase declines with increasing age. The overall age pattern is sigmoidal. A new logit logistic model is proposed which fits the data well. The risk of a Down's syndrome live birth is given by: risk=1/(1+exp(7.330-4.211/(1+exp(-0.282x(age-37.23))))). [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Presents an abstract of the article "Evidence for Non-Homologous Meiotic Co-orientation in Man," by Nataliya Kovaleva and D. E. Mutton.

Data from the New York State Chromosome Registry on over 10,000 cases of Down syndrome reported from 1977 to 1996 confirm findings in the England and Wales Cytogenetic Register that in mosaic 46/47,+21 cases of Down syndrome the male/female ratio (as inferred from XY and XY karyotypes respectively) is less than 1.0 as opposed to the ratio in nonmosaic 47,+21 cases in which the ratio is close to 1.2, or in the general background population with ratio of about 1.05. These results may reflect in part differential pairing in 47,+21 somatic cells of X and Y chromosomes with a 21 chromosome and/or in in-utero selection.

The pregnancy outcomes on cases of Down syndrome diagnosed prenatally in which the mother did not elect termination were evaluated in data reported to a comprehensive Register of Down syndrome for England and Wales for 1989-94. In the 168 cases in which placental biopsy was not used, the overall rate of spontaneous loss was 35%, but this figure masks considerable heterogeneity by gestational stage at ascertainment. Data on ages at diagnostic procedure and on pregnancy termination enabled a more precise survival analysis. The loss rates were approximately 50% for those fetuses ascertained at 15-17 completed wk, 43% at 18 wk, 31% at 19 wk, 25% at 20 wk, and then a leveling off at approximately 20%-25% for fetuses ascertained at 21-28 completed wk. For fetuses ascertained prior to 18 wk, there was no evidence that maternal age was associated with fetal loss, consistent with earlier reports. At 18 wk and after, however, maternal age was on the average approximately 3 years greater in fetuses that were lost. Comparison of successive gestational birth cohorts provided no evidence in these 168 cases that the diagnostic procedure itself had any effect on loss or that selective ascertainment of mothers in risk of loss had any effect on the results. In contrast, in the 21 cases in which placental biopsy had been undertaken, the overall loss rates were not only higher when appropriate comparisons could be made, but there was some evidence for selective ascertainment and/or procedure-associated losses.(ABSTRACT TRUNCATED AT 250 WORDS)

The national register of chromosomal anomalies that lead to Down's syndrome has enabled the monitoring of change in prenatal diagnosis for this condition, and the factors which affect the change. The proportion of cases of cytogenetically diagnosed Down's syndrome in England and Wales detected prenatally rose to 46% in 1991-2 from 31% in 1988-9, a 1.5-fold increase (95% confidence interval 1.3 to 1.7). The increase was confined to mothers under 40 years and was due to the introduction of screening by maternal serum analysis and ultrasound. Over a quarter of affected pregnancies in women aged 25-29 were detected prenatally in 1991-2 compared with less than 10% in 1988-9. Analysis of the data showed regional differences in prenatal diagnosis rates, and in the length of time elapsing between the diagnostic test and termination of an affected pregnancy. An inexplicable finding was that this period varied with the sex of the fetus, being on average a day longer for females than for males.