Search

Resumen: Este estudio consta de dos partes principales, una primera donde analizaremos la situación macroeconómica y en la segunda valoraremos y desarrollaremos la OPA sobre Activision Blizzard. En un primer lugar, realizaremos un análisis de carácter macroeconómico y del entorno donde podremos desarrollar alguno de los índices y estimadores globales de la economía como el MSCI World. Así mismo compararemos los momentos de recesiones pasadas con el momento actual comentando similitudes y contrastando esta evolución con otros indicadores importantes como los bonos basura, los bonos a 10 años y el VIX, También, daremos una explicación al contexto de la globalización y del comercio mundial tras los momentos de tensión vividos durante el año 2022. Como punto adicional, analizaremos la evolución de las fusiones y adquisiciones a lo largo de las últimas décadas, destacando los mejores y peores años para estas operaciones y visualizando los principales sectores en los que se distribuyen y el peso de cada uno. Uno de los aspectos importantes del estudio consiste en determinar y explicar algunos de los factores y motivaciones que influyen en el número de fusiones y adquisiciones. En la segunda parte del trabajo, de forma más práctica, veremos una OPA concreta, la OPA de Microsoft sobre Activision Blizzard, la cual ha sido catalogada como la operación de adquisición más grande de la historia en el sector tecnológico. Por esta razón, se ha hecho imprescindible comentar en esta segunda parte la situación y la evolución de dicho sector hasta la actualidad. Para la valoración de la empresa opada, utilizaremos por una parte el método de descuento de flujos de caja libres, lo que nos permitirá a través del cálculo de varios datos establecer dos escenarios, optimista y pesimista. Ambos escenarios arrojarán una valoración y un precio objetivo para las acciones de la empresa que posteriormente compararemos con el precio pagado en la OPA. Por otra parte, valoraremos Activision Blizzard por múltiplos, lo que nos permitirá a través de una serie de ratios comparar esta empresa con la competencia y con el sector tecnológico en su conjunto. Abstract: The development of this work will be divided into two main parts, in the first one, we will analyze the macroeconomic situation and in the second one we will assess and develop the takeover bid for Activision Blizzard. In first place, we will carry out an analysis of a macroeconomic nature and of the environment where we will be able to develop some of the indexes and global estimators of the economy such as the MSCI World. Likewise, we will compare the moments of past recessions with the current moment, commenting on similarities and contrasting this evolution with other important indicators such as junk bonds, 10-year bonds and the VIX, we will also explain the context of globalization and world trade after the moments of tension experienced during the year 2022. Additionally, we will analyze the evolution of mergers and acquisitions over the last decades, highlighting the best and worst years for these operations. An important part of this work is to determine and explain some of the factors and motivations that influence the number of mergers and acquisitions. We will analyze also the main sectors in which they are distributed and the weight of each one. In the second part of the work, in a more practical way, we will see a specific takeover bid, Microsoft's takeover bid for Activision Blizzard, which has been classified as the largest acquisition operation in history in the technology sector. For this reason, it has become essential to comment in this second part on the situation and evolution of this sector to date. For the valuation of the offered company, we will use, on the one hand, the free cash flow discount method, which will allow us, through the calculation of various data, to establish two scenarios, optimistic and pessimistic. Both scenarios will yield a valuation and a target price for the company's shares that will later be compared with the price paid in the OPA. On the other hand, we will value Activision Blizzard by multiples, which will allow us, through a series of ratios, to compare this company with the competition and with the technology sector as a whole. Grado en Administración y Dirección de Empresas

Exchange Traded Funds genießen eine immer größer werdende Medienpräsenz und werden oft als Allheilmittel der Geldanlage bezeichnet. Aus diesem Grund ist zu analysieren, ob der Hype um Exchange Traded Funds gerechtfertigt ist, also ob ein Investment in Exchange Traded Funds einem Investment in vergleichbare aktiv gemangte Investmentfonds vorzuziehen ist. Aus diesem Kontext ergeben sich folgende Forschungsfragen: • Wie haben Exchange Traded Funds im Vergleich zu ihren zugrundeliegenden Indizes zwischen dem 01.04.2012 und dem 31.03.2022 performt? • Sind Performanceunterschiede zwischen Exchange Traded Funds und vergleichbaren Investmentfonds zu erkennen? o Inwiefern wirkt sich ein Einmalerlag bzw. ein stetiger Vermögensaufbau mittels Sparplan in Exchange Traded Funds oder Investmentfonds aus? o Ist das Investment in physisch replizierte Exchange Traded Funds, synthetisch replizierte Exchange Traded Funds oder aktiv gemanagte Investmentfonds rentabler? Um die Forschungsfragen zu beantworten, wurde eine quantitative Analyse von Index-, ETF- und Investmentfondszeitreihen mit den Referenzindizes MSCI World, DAX, EURO STOXX 50, S&P500 und NASDAQ 100 durchgeführt. Es wurden Performance- und Risikokennzahlen wie zum Beispiel Rendite, Standardabweichung, Korrelation, Sharpe Ratio, Treynor Ratio berechnet, analysiert und gegenübergestellt. Die umfangreiche Kennzahlenanalyse ergibt, dass es vom replizierten Index abhängig ist, ob ETFs ertragreicher performt haben als der Index. Weiters kann nicht eindeutig festgestellt werden, welche Fondskategorie unter Ertrags-/Risiko-Gesichtspunkten die rentabelste für Investor*innen darstellt. Auffällig ist jedoch, dass es Fondsmanagern eher gelungen ist, die Benchmark outzuperformen, wenn als Benchmark ein eher kleiner bzw. regional stark begrenzter Index herangezogen wird. Weiterführende Forschung in Bezug auf die Performanceentwicklung von ETFs und vergleichbarer Investmentfonds sollte eine größere Stichprobe der zu analysierenden Anlageinstrumente enthalten, um dann eventuell Tendenzen feststellen zu können. Exchange Traded Funds are currently hyped in media, claiming that ETFs are the key of investment. Therefore, this analysis evaluates if the hype in Exchange Traded Funds is justified. It should be analysed whether an investment in ETF or an investment in com-parable actively managed mutual funds should be preferred. In this context, the following research questions need to be answered: • How was the performance of Exchange Traded Funds compared to that of its suitable index during the period between 1st of April 2012 and 31st of March 2022? • Are there any recognizable differences in performances between Exchange Traded Funds and actively managed mutual funds? o To what extent does a one-off payment or a steady accumulation of as-sets by means of a savings plan affect exchange-traded funds or investment funds? o Is an investment in physical Exchange Traded Funds, synthetic Exchange Traded Funds or actively managed mutual funds more profitable? To answer these questions there was put to practice a quantitative analysis of index-, ETF- and mutual funds time courses with the reference indices MSCI World, DAX, EU-RO STOXX 50, S&P500 and NASDAQ 100. To measure the performance there have been calculated, analysed and faced key performance indicators like Performance, Volatility, Correlation, Sharpe Ratio, Treynor Ratio, etc. The result of the advanced KPI analysis shows, that it depends on the replicated index, whether the ETF performed better than the correspondent index. There is no distinct result, which fund category under performance-risk-measurement is the best. For mutual fund managers who invest in a small or geographically limited region it is more likely that they are able to outperform the benchmark and the ETF. In further research, there should be done an analysis considering a vaster sample of investment instruments than the one analysed in this work. Maybe than it is more likely to recognize any tendencies. eingereicht von: Sabrina Mascher Abweichender Titel laut Übersetzung der Verfasserin/des Verfassers Bachelorarbeit FH JOANNEUM 2022

In this study, we analyze the forecast accuracy and profitability of buy recommendations published in five major German financial magazines for private households based on fundamental analysis. The results show a high average forecast accuracy but with a very high standard deviation, which indicates poor forecast accuracy with regard to individual stocks. The recommendation profitability slightly exceeds the performance of the MSCI World index. Considering the involved risk, which is represented by a high standard deviation, the excess returns appear to be insufficient.

In this study, we analyze the forecast accuracy and profitability of buy recommendations published in five major German financial magazines for private households based on fundamental analysis. The results show a high average forecast accuracy but with a very high standard deviation, which indicates poor forecast accuracy with regard to individual stocks. The recommendation profitability slightly exceeds the performance of the MSCI World index. Considering the involved risk, which is represented by a high standard deviation, the excess returns appear to be insufficient., Postprints der Universität Potsdam : Wirtschafts- und Sozialwissenschaftliche Reihe, 118

Este estudo tem como objetivo identificar a presença de uma anomalia de mercado conhecida por efeito janeiro nos mercados desenvolvidos e emergentes. Para esta análise foram utilizados os índices MSCI World e MSCI Emergents Markets dos últimos 20 anos (1994-2015). Foi adotada a metodologia de power ratio e a regressão linear com recurso a variáveis dummy. Os resultados do estudo apontam para a presença do efeito janeiro quer nos mercados desenvolvidos quer nos mercados emergentes, apresentando-se como mais persistente no tempo nos mercados desenvolvidos e mais forte nos mercados emergentes. Para os dois tipos de mercado observa-se, igualmente, um declínio do efeito janeiro, no tempo.