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Food security in the Mediterranean basin with an analysis in machine learningPrésentation : Michel Mouléry (INRA, Ecodéveloppement), Esther Sanz Sanz (INRA, Ecodéveloppement), Dominique Ami (Aix-Marseille Université), Claude Napoléone (INRA, Ecodéveloppement), Davide Martinetti (INRA, BIOSP) The Mediterranean region is a biome of specific richness of world importance (Underwood et al., 2009), where population is constantly growing (from 446M in 2000 to 570M in 2025 – geoconfluences, 2014), urban development increases, while only 14 % of the region can be devoted to agriculture and food production (118 million of hectares – Zdruli, 2014). Hence there is a need for a fine and detailed knowledge of the spatial issues at stake. Nonetheless, land use and land cover databases produced by each Mediterranean country are often heterogeneous with respect to the spatial scale, resolution or the methodology of construction.In the framework of three research projects (Arimnet/Divercrop , Agriville , Labex OtMed/LasetMed ), we built two resolutions spatial database (8-10 km and 2km) representing, between 2005 and 2015, detailed topography (altitude and slope), land cover (urban, natural vegetation, forest, crops, bare soils, etc.), bioclimatic variables (temperatures, precipitation, hygrometry, etc.) and socio-economic variables (population, agricultural practices, etc.). Besides the simple visualization of the variables and their spatial relationships, the constructed database allows to develop original research analysis at the scale of the Mediterranean basin, about, for example, food security, land systems or the relation between biodiversity and agricultural practices. For analyzing the food security at a resolution of 8-10 km, this presentation will highlight for analyzing the potential representativeness of variables with machine learning. For instance, we found that the density of population in the South of Mediterranean region appear is a strong determinant of wheat production. Indeed, the Population is a good incentive in the South of the basin (wheat may be a production close to the city) contrary to the North, where there is no effect (production areas and cities are not in the same location). Furthermore, we will explain the weight of others variables to explain the wheat production in the Mediterranean South (ex “cattle”, “altitude”) and field management in the North. Finally, we will present our findings with a finest resolution of 2km analysis to explain food production. The objective is to share our knowledge and data, confident that they will attract a great share of the participants of the IFSA 2020 Conference.

International audience; landscape ecology can be (re)adapted to the urban/agriculture issue

International audience; Forest fires are a major issue in the Mediterranean regions and climate change is likely to increase the risk. Moreover, the numerous governmental actions to prevent and fight forest fires are costly, while natural regeneration of burned areas is slow. In this context, we questioned the effect of different landscape patterns on the occurrence and spread of forest fires, in the sense that the estimation and localization of this relationship allows to focus the prevention or control action on areas where the probability of occurrence is important. In this perspective, special attention was given to agricultural areas, mainly because their relationship to fire risk is relatively poorly documented, while it is non-homogeneous, i.e. unpredictable from a simple mapping of uses. To assess the relationship between different types of agricultural areas and fire risk, we conducted a statistical analysis of fire occurrence and spread based on a census of past fires and geomatic data on land uses, over an eight-year period and in the French Mediterranean area. The results are consistent with the literature (municipalities with high population density and high summer temperatures more affected by wildfires) and with respect to the effect of agriculture, annual crops and arboriculture decrease the fire risk, while heterogeneous agricultural land tends to increase the probability.; Les incendies de forêt sont un enjeu important dans les régions méditerranéennes et le changement climatique est susceptible d’en accroitre le risque. En outre, les nombreuses actions gouvernementales visant à prévenir et à combattre les feux de forêt sont coûteuses, tandis que la régénération naturelle des zones brûlées est lente. Dans ce contexte, nous nous sommes interrogés sur l’effet des différents patrons paysagers sur l’occurrence et la propagation des incendies de forêt, en ce sens que l’estimation et la localisation de cette relation permettent de focaliser l’action de prévention ou de lutte sur les espaces où la probabilité d’occurrence est importante. Dans cette perspective, un regard particulier a été accordé aux zones agricoles, principalement du fait que leur relation au risque d’incendie est relativement peu documentée alors qu’elle est non homogène, c’est-à-dire imprévisible à partir d’une simple cartographie des usages. Pour évaluer le lien entre les différents types d’espaces agricoles et le risque d’incendie, nous avons conduit une analyse statistique de l’occurrence et de la propagation des incendies à partir du recensement des feux passés et des données géomatiques sur les usages des sols, sur une période de huit ans et dans la zone méditerranéenne française. Les résultats sont conformes à la littérature (les municipalités à forte densité de population et aux températures élevées en été plus touchées par les incendies de forêt) et en ce qui concerne l’effet de l’agriculture, les cultures annuelles et l’arboriculture diminuent le risque d’incendie, alors que les terres agricoles hétérogènes ont tendance à en augmenter la probabilité.

Farm abandonment and over-extensification trends in less-favored livestock breeding areas in the Mediterranean have led to socio-environmental issues that are difficult to assess and address, due to the characteristics of these areas (e.g., poor data availability and reliability). In a study case that presents many of the characteristics common to these areas, we combine qualitative and quantitative approaches to assess (i) the relationship between livestock production and land-cover change and (ii) the drivers of farmer decisions, concerning the types of livestock they breed. We show that the Common Agricultural Policy&rsquo, s objective of open-landscape preservation cannot be achieved through the observed livestock management practices, with the most heavily CAP subsidy-dependent activities (e.g., suckler-cow breeding) having one of the weakest contributions to this objective. We also econometrically show that suckler-cow breeding is more likely to be adopted as a complementary or main activity in farms facing a labor scarcity and land abundance context. These results complement the literature and contribute to the discussion regarding the design of CAP support for less-favored Mediterranean areas.

En attente de validation (après que la conférence soit passée).; A homogeneous database at mediterranean basin scale and machine learning analysis to understand the potential . 4. Open Science Meeting 2019

National audience

Wildfires represent one of the major calamities for French Mediterranean regions. Last decades witnessed an increment of social engagement against fires, due to the increasing ecological and socioeconomic concerns. Our study examines the impact of agricultural activities on the risk of forest fires in Southern France and contributes to the understanding of the main drivers of forest fires.; National audience

International audience

A database on the area of the Mediterranean Sea to estimate the land systems and their relations with the evolution of spaces. 10. Séminaire FONCIMED 2017

Périurbain et Méditerranée 2011-2016. Séminaire Ecodeveloppement

Research question : The agriculture Mediterranean has a positive effect on the wildfires?

National audience

National audience

National audience

International audience; Growing urbanisation has become a problem for cities. Rapid urban sprawl is giving rise to major questions, such as how to protect farmland and natural areas and how to minimise pollution. The political and strategic choices made by each city have shaped their urban morphologies. Consider on the one hand New York, US, a city of 8,405,837 inhabitants covering 784km2, with dwellings concentrated into skyscrapers to protect inhabitants against floods; on the other hand, London, UK, has the same population size but double the area (1,572km2), as the result of very fast, low-density growth, which has gobbled up lot of farmland and natural areas. In this article, we’ll focus on two urban areas: Avignon in France and Constantine in Algeria. Our aim will be to analyse the similarities and differences between these two regions. Avignon has strong urbanisation of the peri-urban area, with scattered isolated houses. The middle and upper classes have settled down in the city surroundings, looking for the quality of life of the countryside (sun, calm, proximity to nature) while keeping the advantages of reasonable costs while close to the city-centre and working areas. This development option was authorised by public policies and regulations. Constantine also has great scatter development. In 2000, to manage this chaotic development, public stakeholders decided to create the city of Ali-Menjeli over 1,500ha to the south of Constantine. This new city is expected to eradicate Constantine’s shantytowns, with urban development concentrated in this new city. Avignon and Constantine have the same type of urban sprawl but a different geography and history, and particular constraints: floods for Avignon in 1856 and 2003, and an earthquake in Constantine in 1985. We will quantify urban progression for both of them over the past 30 years using remote sensing analysis of Landsat images to spatially represent and estimate land use changes. We will then analyse fragmentation using landscape indicators.

International audience

Activity c) represents original studies about the effects of landscape on economic activities and society welfare. These “ad-hoc studies” in Activity c) can be seen as the logical consequence of Activity a) and b): In the ad-hoc study, the knowledge gaps in the process of local answering the project’s guiding questions, that have been detected during Activity a) and b), shall be filled. Furthermore, the ad-hoc studies test innovative methodologies likely to be sufficient in assessing the cause chain effects between landscape and rural development development/regional competitiveness. (At this, testing of methodologies is decided on case by case by the CLAIM consortium, depending on local need (and with a view of providing, altogether a coverage of different potential methods.) Consequently, the different CSA ad-hoc studies do not follow a common methodological approach, as the different local basic conditions and knowledge gaps determine different needs and as a variety of methods shall be tested which could be suitable to address the projects objectives. Part 4 of D4.20 represents the basic report on the application of different methods to a answer the CSA specific research questions and on the final results of the ad-hoc studies. The report is organised country by country.

The main objective of the CLAIM Project is to provide the knowledge base to support an effective CAP policy design in the direction of improved landscape management, particularly providing insights into the ability of landscape to contribute to the production of added value for society in rural areas. The CLAIM knowledge platform (KP) represents the interface between the research findings and policy-making contributing to further knowledge on the cause-effect relationships between landscape policy and management and the appearance of landscape (structure and elements) as well as the related ecosystem functionalities to the actual provision of ecosystem services, values and their application for regional competitiveness and social welfare. The theoretical framework of cause-effect-linkages is substantiated by empirical evidence from 25 individual research studies gathered in 9 different regions in the EU and Turkey. The specific challenge of the CLAIM-KP is the integrated presentation of thematically and methodologically heterogenic knowledge in one knowledge platform to enhance policy support in the field of agri-environmental and landscape management. The main addressee of the CLAIM-KP are: European policy maker in the fields of agri-environmental and landscape management policy and rural development, national and regional decision-makers at programming level as well as regional and local stakeholder and interest groups, who are involved in any kind of governance processes within landscape and rural development. The main output of the CLAIM-KP is qualitative knowledge about theoretical knowledge, but also information on empirical finding, which can be of qualitative and quantitative nature. The CLAIM-KP is accessible online under the following internet address http://project2.zalf.de/claimknowledgeplatform

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International audience

Are there common features in land cover and pattern changes in mediterranean peri-urban areas ?

Avec la collaboration de :P. Abrantes, A. Bouchier, M. Debolini, J.-P. Chéry, T. SabbatiniAvec la collaboration de :P. Abrantes, A. Bouchier, M. Debolini, J.-P. Chéry, T. Sabbatini; absent

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National audience; A partir du repérage de l'ensemble des contours proposés et la collecte d'informations produites par différentes sources, une large sélection des zones d'activités a pu être établie et les informations ont été croisées avec des bases de données non spatiales, susceptibles de renseigner la qualité de la zone, sa densité, sa vocation...

L’unité d’écodéveloppement a développé de façon active depuis quelques années des activités de recherche impliquant des données spatiales. Ainsi l’unité dispose d’une multitude d’informations géo-référencées provenant de différentes sources