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Abstract Background Methylation levels may be associated with and serve as markers to predict risk of progression of precancerous cervical lesions. We conducted an epigenome-wide association study (EWAS) of CpG methylation and progression to high-grade cervical intraepithelial neoplasia (CIN2 +) following an abnormal screening test. Methods A prospective US cohort of 289 colposcopy patients with normal or CIN1 enrollment histology was assessed. Baseline cervical sample DNA was analyzed using Illumina HumanMethylation 450K (n = 76) or EPIC 850K (n = 213) arrays. Participants returned at provider-recommended intervals and were followed up to 5 years via medical records. We assessed continuous CpG M values for 9 cervical cancer-associated genes and time-to-progression to CIN2+. We estimated CpG-specific time-to-event ratios (TTER) and hazard ratios using adjusted, interval-censored Weibull accelerated failure time models. We also conducted an exploratory EWAS to identify novel CpGs with false discovery rate (FDR)

Abstract Background Precision medicine is an emerging field that involves the selection of treatments based on patients’ individual prognostic data. It is formalized through the identification of individualized treatment rules (ITRs) that maximize a clinical outcome. When the type of outcome is time-to-event, the correct handling of censoring is crucial for estimating reliable optimal ITRs. Methods We propose a jackknife estimator of the value function to allow for right-censored data for a binary treatment. The jackknife estimator or leave-one-out-cross-validation approach can be used to estimate the value function and select optimal ITRs using existing machine learning methods. We address the issue of censoring in survival data by introducing an inverse probability of censoring weighted (IPCW) adjustment in the expression of the jackknife estimator of the value function. In this paper, we estimate the optimal ITR by using random survival forest (RSF) and Cox proportional hazards model (COX). We use a Z-test to compare the optimal ITRs learned by RSF and COX with the zero-order model (or one-size-fits-all). Through simulation studies, we investigate the asymptotic properties and the performance of our proposed estimator under different censoring rates. We illustrate our proposed method on a phase III clinical trial of non-small cell lung cancer data. Results Our simulations show that COX outperforms RSF for small sample sizes. As sample sizes increase, the performance of RSF improves, in particular when the expected log failure time is not linear in the covariates. The estimator is fairly normally distributed across different combinations of simulation scenarios and censoring rates. When applied to a non-small-cell lung cancer data set, our method determines the zero-order model (ZOM) as the best performing model. This finding highlights the possibility that tailoring may not be needed for this cancer data set. Conclusion The jackknife approach for estimating the value function in the presence of right-censored data shows satisfactory performance when there is small to moderate censoring. Winsorizing the upper and lower percentiles of the estimated survival weights for computing the IPCWs stabilizes the estimator.

Background: Each year, nearly 300,000 women and 5 million fetuses or neonates die during childbirth or shortly thereafter, a burden concentrated disproportionately in low- and middle-income countries. Identifying women and their fetuses at risk for intrapartum-related morbidity and death could facilitate early intervention. Methods: The Limiting Adverse Birth Outcomes in Resource-Limited Settings (LABOR) Study is a multi-country, prospective, observational cohort designed to exhaustively document the course and outcomes of labor, delivery, and the immediate postpartum period in settings where adverse outcomes are frequent. The study is conducted at four hospitals across three countries in Ghana, India, and Zambia. We will enroll approximately 12,000 women at presentation to the hospital for delivery and follow them and their fetuses/newborns throughout their labor and delivery course, postpartum hospitalization, and up to 42 days thereafter. The co-primary outcomes are composites of maternal (death, hemorrhage, hypertensive disorders, infection) and fetal/neonatal adverse events (death, encephalopathy, sepsis) that may be attributed to the intrapartum period. The study collects extensive physiologic data through the use of physiologic sensors and employs medical scribes to document examination findings, diagnoses, medications, and other interventions in real time. Discussion: The goal of this research is to produce a large, sharable dataset that can be used to build statistical algorithms to prospectively stratify parturients according to their risk of adverse outcomes. We anticipate this research will inform the development of new tools to reduce peripartum morbidity and mortality in low-resource settings.

The number of studies with information at multiple biological levels of granularity, such as genomics, proteomics, and metabolomics, is increasing each year, and a biomedical questaion is how to systematically integrate these data to discover new biological mechanisms that have the potential to elucidate the processes of health and disease. Causal frameworks, such as Mendelian randomization (MR), provide a foundation to begin integrating data for new biological discoveries. Despite the growing number of MR applications in a wide variety of biomedical studies, there are few approaches for the systematic analysis of omic data. The large number and diverse types of molecular components involved in complex diseases interact through complex networks, and classical MR approaches targeting individual components do not consider the underlying relationships. In contrast, causal network models established in the principles of MR offer significant improvements to the classical MR framework for understanding omic data. Integration of these mostly distinct branches of statistics is a recent development, and we here review the current progress. To set the stage for causal network models, we review some recent progress in the classical MR framework. We then explain how to transition from the classical MR framework to causal networks. We discuss the identification of causal networks and evaluate the underlying assumptions. We also introduce some tests for sensitivity analysis and stability assessment of causal networks. We then review practical details to perform real data analysis and identify causal networks and highlight some of the utility of causal networks. The utilities with validated novel findings reveal the full potential of causal networks as a systems approach that will become necessary to integrate large-scale omic data.

Abstract Background Common and complex traits are the consequence of the interaction and regulation of multiple genes simultaneously, therefore characterizing the interconnectivity of genes is essential to unravel the underlying biological networks. However, the focus of many studies is on the differential expression of individual genes or on co-expression analysis. Methods Going beyond analysis of one gene at a time, we systematically integrated transcriptomics, genotypes and Hi-C data to identify interconnectivities among individual genes as a causal network. We utilized different machine learning techniques to extract information from the network and identify differential regulatory pattern between cases and controls. We used data from the Allen Brain Atlas for replication. Results Employing the integrative systems approach on the data from CommonMind Consortium showed that gene transcription is controlled by genetic variants proximal to the gene (cis-regulatory factors), and transcribed distal genes (trans-regulatory factors). We identified differential gene regulatory patterns in SCZ-cases versus controls and novel SCZ-associated genes that may play roles in the disorder since some of them are primary expressed in human brain. In addition, we observed genes known associated with SCZ are not likely (OR = 0.59) to have high impacts (degree > 3) on the network. Conclusions Causal networks could reveal underlying patterns and the role of genes individually and as a group. Establishing principles that govern relationships between genes provides a mechanistic understanding of the dysregulated gene transcription patterns in SCZ and creates more efficient experimental designs for further studies. This information cannot be obtained by studying a single gene at the time.

Abstract Background Many genome-wide association studies have detected genomic regions associated with traits, yet understanding the functional causes of association often remains elusive. Utilizing systems approaches and focusing on intermediate molecular phenotypes might facilitate biologic understanding. Results The availability of exome sequencing of two populations of African-Americans and European-Americans from the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities study allowed us to investigate the effects of annotated loss-of-function (LoF) mutations on 122 serum metabolites. To assess the findings, we built metabolomic causal networks for each population separately and utilized structural equation modeling. We then validated our findings with a set of independent samples. By use of methods based on concepts of Mendelian randomization of genetic variants, we showed that some of the affected metabolites are risk predictors in the causal pathway of disease. For example, LoF mutations in the gene KIAA1755 were identified to elevate the levels of eicosapentaenoate (p-value = 5E-14), an essential fatty acid clinically identified to increase essential hypertension. We showed that this gene is in the pathway to triglycerides, where both triglycerides and essential hypertension are risk factors of metabolomic disorder and heart attack. We also identified that the gene CLDN17, harboring loss-of-function mutations, had pleiotropic actions on metabolites from amino acid and lipid pathways. Conclusion Using systems biology approaches for the analysis of metabolomics and genetic data, we integrated several biological processes, which lead to findings that may functionally connect genetic variants with complex diseases.

Introduction: In cancer, there are survival-based staging systems and tailored, stage-based treatments. There is little personalized treatment in vascular disease. The 2019 Global Vascular Guidelines on the Management of CLTI proposed successful treatment hinges upon Patient risk, Limb severity, and ANatomic complexity (PLAN). We sought to confirm a three axis approach and define how increasing severity affects mortality, not just limb loss.Methods: Patients revascularized for incident CLTI at our institution from 2013 to 2017 were included. Outcomes were mortality, limb loss, the composite endpoint of amputation-free survival. Using Bayesian machine learning, specifically supervised topic modeling, clusters of patient features associated with mortality were formed after controlling for revascularization type. Patients were assigned to the cluster they belonged to with highest probability; clusters were characterized by analyzing the characteristics of patients within them. Patient outcomes were used to order the clusters into stages with increasing mortality.Results: We defined three distinct clusters as the basis for patient- and limb-centered stages. Across stages, rates of 1-year mortality were 7.6, 13.8, 18.9% and rates of amputation-free survival were 84.8, 79.3, and 63.2%. Stage one had patients with rest pain and previous revascularization who were less likely to have wounds, diabetes, and renal disease. Stage two had doubled mortality, likely related to diabetes prevalence. Stage three is characterized by high rates of complicated comorbidities, particularly end stage renal disease, and significantly higher rate of limb loss (22.6 vs. 8% in stages one and two).Conclusion: Using precision medicine, we have demonstrated clustering of CLTI patients that can be used toward a robust staging system. We provide empiric evidence for PLAN and detail about how changes in each variable affect survival and amputation-free survival.

OBJECTIVES/GOALS: As the number of older adults (≥65 years) with T1D grows, there are limited data to guide care. In a six-month trial, CGM reduced hypoglycemia in older adults, yet there are challenges for widespread uptake. Our objective is to characterize older adults experiences with using CGM and define suboptimal responses signaling a need for resources or support. METHODS/STUDY POPULATION: The study will engage key stakeholders (i.e., older adults with T1D, caregivers [recruited as patient-caregiver dyads], and providers [endocrinologists, geriatricians, diabetes educators]) for a Group Model Building (GMB). GMB is a participatory approach to system dynamics in which participants share perceptions and experiences with a problem and collaboratively explore the system structure that shapes those trends. A series of 8 GMB workshops will be held with 3-8 participants. The final study n will be determined by thematic saturation. Workshops comprise 1) a questionnaire, 2) a GMB session, and 3) a focus group discussion. GMB will follow a replicable process to generate a model of the complex web of causal determinants affecting CGM-related experiences, including optimal and suboptimal CGM responses. RESULTS/ANTICIPATED RESULTS: To date, the study has enrolled 33 participants, including 28 older adults living with T1D and 5 caregivers (mean age = 74 years, range 67-83 years). Twenty-four patient participants will be active CGM users and 4 will be CGM non-users. The study will report on patient data capture from the questionnaire and EMR, including demographics, experiences, familiarity, and confidence surrounding CGM use; diabetes duration; insulin pump use; history of severe hypoglycemia. Analysis of aggregated data will generate causal loop diagrams that integrate pertinent theoretical frameworks, lived experiences, and CGM outcomes. Maps will be used to identify a set of suboptimal CGM responses (i.e., key outcome trajectories) that signal a need for action, with a diagram of factors that interact to produce each response. DISCUSSION/SIGNIFICANCE: Delivering CGM to older adults with T1D demands new approaches. This study will yield critical evidence to tailor support and resources for effective CGM use in older adults. Findings may be translated into suite of pragmatic interventions to bolster CGM use and matched to individual patients expected to benefit using a precision medicine framework.

Abstracts Background This study aimed to introduce recursively imputed survival trees into multistate survival models (MSRIST) to analyze these types of data and to identify the prognostic factors influencing the disease progression in patients with intermediate events. The proposed method is fully nonparametric and can be used for estimating transition probabilities. Methods A general algorithm was provided for analyzing multi-state data with a focus on the illness-death and progressive multi-state models. The model considered both beyond Markov and Non-Markov settings. We also proposed a multi-state random survival method (MSRSF) and compared their performance with the classical multi-state Cox model. We applied the proposed method to a dataset related to HIV/AIDS patients based on a retrospective cohort study extracted in Tehran from April 2004 to March 2014 consist of 2473 HIV-infected patients. Results The results showed that MSRIST outperformed the classical multistate method using Cox Model and MSRSF in terms of integrated Brier score and concordance index over 500 repetitions. We also identified a set of important risk factors as well as their interactions on different states of HIV and AIDS progression. Conclusions There are different strategies for modelling the intermediate event. We adapted two newly developed data mining technique (RSF and RIST) for multistate models (MSRSF and MSRIST) to identify important risk factors in different stages of the diseases. The methods can capture any complex relationship between variables and can be used as a useful tool for identifying important risk factors in different states of this disease.

Despite decades of intensive research, NHL (non-Hodgkin lymphoma) still remains poorly understood and is largely incurable. Recent molecular studies suggest that genomic variants measured with SNPs (single nucleotide polymorphisms) in genes may have additional predictive power for NHL prognosis beyond clinical risk factors. We analyzed a genetic association study. The prognostic cohort consisted of 346 patients, among whom 138 had DLBCL (diffuse large B-cell lymphoma) and 101 had FL (follicular lymphoma). For DLBCL, we analyzed 1229 SNPs which represented 122 KEGG pathways. For FL, we analyzed 1228 SNPs which represented 122 KEGG pathways. Unlike in existing studies, we targeted at identifying pathways with significant additional predictive power beyond clinical factors. In addition, we accounted for the joint effects of multiple SNPs within pathways, whereas some existing studies drew pathway-level conclusions based on separate analysis of individual SNPs. For DLBCL, we identified four pathways, which, combined with the clinical factors, had medians of the prediction logrank statistics as 2.535, 2.220, 2.094, 2.453, and 2.512, respectively. As a comparison, the clinical factors had a median of the prediction logrank statistics around 0.552. For FL, we identified two pathways, which, combined with the clinical factors, had medians of the prediction logrank statistics as 4.320 and 3.532, respectively. As a comparison, the clinical factors had a median of the prediction logrank statistics around 1.212. For NHL overall, we identified three pathways, which, combined with the clinical factors, had medians of the prediction logrank statistics as 5.722, 5.314, and 5.441, respective. As a comparison, the clinical factors had a median of the prediction logrank statistics around 4.411. The identified pathways have sound biological bases. In addition, they are different from those identified using existing approaches. They may provide further insights into the biological mechanisms underlying the prognosis of NHL.

Machine learning (ML) has seen impressive growth in health science research due to its capacity for handling complex data to perform a range of tasks, including unsupervised learning, supervised learning, and reinforcement learning. To aid health science researchers in understanding the strengths and limitations of ML and to facilitate its integration into their studies, we present here a guideline for integrating ML into an analysis through a structured framework, covering steps from framing a research question to study design and analysis techniques for specialized data types.

Objectives Develop an individualised prognostic risk prediction tool for predicting the probability of adverse COVID-19 outcomes in patients with inflammatory bowel disease (IBD).Design and setting This study developed and validated prognostic penalised logistic regression models using reports to the international Surveillance Epidemiology of Coronavirus Under Research Exclusion for Inflammatory Bowel Disease voluntary registry from March to October 2020. Model development was done using a training data set (85% of cases reported 13 March–15 September 2020), and model validation was conducted using a test data set (the remaining 15% of cases plus all cases reported 16 September–20 October 2020).Participants We included 2709 cases from 59 countries (mean age 41.2 years (SD 18), 50.2% male). All submitted cases after removing duplicates were included.Primary and secondary outcome measures COVID-19 related: (1) Hospitalisation+: composite outcome of hospitalisation, ICU admission, mechanical ventilation or death; (2) Intensive Care Unit+ (ICU+): composite outcome of ICU admission, mechanical ventilation or death; (3) Death. We assessed the resulting models’ discrimination using the area under the curve of the receiver operator characteristic curves and reported the corresponding 95% CIs.Results Of the submitted cases, a total of 633 (24%) were hospitalised, 137 (5%) were admitted to the ICU or intubated and 69 (3%) died. 2009 patients comprised the training set and 700 the test set. The models demonstrated excellent discrimination, with a test set area under the curve (95% CI) of 0.79 (0.75 to 0.83) for Hospitalisation+, 0.88 (0.82 to 0.95) for ICU+ and 0.94 (0.89 to 0.99) for Death. Age, comorbidities, corticosteroid use and male gender were associated with a higher risk of death, while the use of biological therapies was associated with a lower risk.Conclusions Prognostic models can effectively predict who is at higher risk for COVID-19-related adverse outcomes in a population of patients with IBD. A free online risk calculator (https://covidibd.org/covid-19-risk-calculator/) is available for healthcare providers to facilitate discussion of risks due to COVID-19 with patients with IBD.