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International audience; Historical outbreaks of Rift Valley fever (RVF) since the early 1950s have been associated with cyclical patterns of the El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon, which results in elevated and widespread rainfall over the RVF endemic areas of Africa. Using satellite measurements of global and regional elevated sea surface temperatures, elevated rainfall, and satellite derived-normalized difference vegetation index data, we predicted with lead times of 2-4 months areas where outbreaks of RVF in humans and animals were expected and occurred in the Horn of Africa, Sudan, and Southern Africa at different time periods from September 2006 to March 2008. Predictions were confirmed by entomological field investigations of virus activity and by reported cases of RVF in human and livestock populations. This represents the first series of prospective predictions of RVF outbreaks and provides a baseline for improved early warning, control, response planning, and mitigation into the future.

International audience; To study the link between climatic variables and the incidence of leishmaniasis a study was conducted in Cayenne, French Guiana. Patients infected between January 1994 and December 2010. Meteorological data were studied in relation to the incidence of leishmaniasis using an ARIMA model. In the final model, the infections were negatively correlated with rainfall (with a 2-month lag) and with the number of days with rainfall > 50 mm (lags of 4 and 7 months). The variables that were positively correlated were temperature and the Multivariate El Niño Southern Oscillation Index with lags of 8 and 4 months, respectively. Significantly greater correlations were observed in March for rainfall and in November for the Multivariate El Niño/Southern Oscillation Index. Climate thus seems to be a non-negligible explanatory variable for the fluctuations of leishmaniasis. A decrease in rainfall is linked to increased cases 2 months later. This easily perceptible point could lead to an interesting prevention message.

International audience; ObjectivesInfluenza seasonality remains poorly studied in Equatorial regions. Here we assessed the seasonal characteristics and environmental drivers of influenza epidemics in French Guiana, where influenza surveillance was established in 2006.MethodsSentinel GPs monitored weekly incidence of Influenza-like illnesses (ILI) from January 2006 through December 2010 and collected nasopharyngeal specimens from patients for virological confirmation. Times series analysis was used to investigate relationship between ILI and climatic parameters (rainfall and specific humidity).ResultsBased on 1533 viruses identified during the study period, we observed marked seasonality in the circulation of influenza virus in the pre-pandemic period, followed by year-round activity in the post-pandemic period, with a peak in the rainy season. ILI incidence showed seasonal autoregressive variation based on ARIMA analysis. Multivariate dynamic regression revealed that a 1 mm increase of rainfall resulted in an increase of 0.33% in ILI incidence one week later, adjusting for specific humidity (SH). Conversely, an increase of 1 g/kg of SH resulted in a decrease of 11% in ILI incidence 3 weeks later, adjusting for rainfall.ConclusionsIncreased rainfall and low levels of specific humidity favour influenza transmission in French Guiana.

International audience; Rats are major reservoirs of leptospirosis and considered as a main threat to biodiversity. A recent introduction of Rattus rattus to the island of Futuna (Western Polynesia) provided the opportunity to test if a possible change in species composition of rat populations would increase the risk of leptospirosis to humans. We trapped rodents on Wallis and Futuna and assessed Leptospira carriage in 357 rodents (Rattus norvegicus, R. rattus, Rattus exulans, and Mus domesticus) from 2008 to 2012. While Leptospira prevalence in rodents and the composition of rat populations on Futuna fluctuated with rainfall, the biomass of Leptospira-carrying rodents has been continuously rising from 2008 to 2012. Our results suggest that the introduction of R. rattus increases the risk to humans being infected with leptospirosis by rats.

International audience; In 2008, France implemented a regulation framework for rainwater harvesting (RWH). This framework implicitly defines several categories of rainwater quality for different uses through specific technical requirements to be implemented. This paper presents a detailed analysis of these requirements. Then, results concerning the bacteriological and physicochemical water quality from past on-site studies undertaken in France are compared in order to develop a methodological strategy aiming to validate, clarify or invalidate them through future experiments.

Background Dengue dynamics are driven by complex interactions between human-hosts, mosquito-vectors and viruses that are influenced by environmental and climatic factors. The objectives of this study were to analyze and model the relationships between climate, Aedes aegypti vectors and dengue outbreaks in Noumea (New Caledonia), and to provide an early warning system. Methodology/Principal Findings Epidemiological and meteorological data were analyzed from 1971 to 2010 in Noumea. Entomological surveillance indices were available from March 2000 to December 2009. During epidemic years, the distribution of dengue cases was highly seasonal. The epidemic peak (March–April) lagged the warmest temperature by 1–2 months and was in phase with maximum precipitations, relative humidity and entomological indices. Significant inter-annual correlations were observed between the risk of outbreak and summertime temperature, precipitations or relative humidity but not ENSO. Climate-based multivariate non-linear models were developed to estimate the yearly risk of dengue outbreak in Noumea. The best explicative meteorological variables were the number of days with maximal temperature exceeding 32°C during January–February–March and the number of days with maximal relative humidity exceeding 95% during January. The best predictive variables were the maximal temperature in December and maximal relative humidity during October–November–December of the previous year. For a probability of dengue outbreak above 65% in leave-one-out cross validation, the explicative model predicted 94% of the epidemic years and 79% of the non epidemic years, and the predictive model 79% and 65%, respectively. Conclusions/Significance The epidemic dynamics of dengue in Noumea were essentially driven by climate during the last forty years. Specific conditions based on maximal temperature and relative humidity thresholds were determinant in outbreaks occurrence. Their persistence was also crucial. An operational model that will enable health authorities to anticipate the outbreak risk was successfully developed. Similar models may be developed to improve dengue management in other countries., Author Summary Dengue fever is a major public health problem in the tropics and subtropics. Since no vaccine exists, understanding and predicting outbreaks remain of crucial interest. Climate influences the mosquito-vector biology and the viral transmission cycle. Its impact on dengue dynamics is of growing interest. We analyzed the epidemiology of dengue in Noumea (New Caledonia) from 1971 to 2010 and its relationships with local and remote climate conditions using an original approach combining a comparison of epidemic and non epidemic years, bivariate and multivariate analyses. We found that the occurrence of outbreaks in Noumea was strongly influenced by climate during the last forty years. Efficient models were developed to estimate the yearly risk of outbreak as a function of two meteorological variables that were contemporaneous (explicative model) or prior (predictive model) to the outbreak onset. Local threshold values of maximal temperature and relative humidity were identified. Our results provide new insights to understand the link between climate and dengue outbreaks, and have a substantial impact on dengue management in New Caledonia since the health authorities have integrated these models into their decision making process and vector control policies. This raises the possibility to provide similar early warning systems in other countries.

International audience; Understanding where and how fast an infectious disease will spread during an epidemic is critical for its control. However, the task is a challenging one as numerous factors may interact and drive the spread of a disease, specifically when vector-borne diseases are involved. We advocate the use of simultaneous autoregressive models to identify environmental features that significantly impact the velocity of disease spread. We illustrate this approach by exploring several environmental factors influencing the velocity of bluetongue (BT) spread in France during the 2007-2008 epizootic wave to determine which ones were the most important drivers. We used velocities of BT spread estimated in 4,495 municipalities and tested sixteen covariates defining five thematic groups of related variables: elevation, meteorological-related variables, landscape-related variables, host availability, and vaccination. We found that ecological factors associated with vector abundance and activity (elevation and meteorological-related variables), as well as with host availability, were important drivers of the spread of the disease. Specifically, the disease spread more slowly in areas with high elevation and when heavy rainfall associated with extreme temperature events occurred one or two months prior to the first clinical case. Moreover, the density of dairy cattle was correlated negatively with the velocity of BT spread. These findings add substantially to our understanding of BT spread in a temperate climate. Finally, the approach presented in this paper can be used with other infectious diseases, and provides a powerful tool to identify environmental features driving the velocity of disease spread.

International audience; Since a rise in dissolved organic carbon (DOC) concentrations has been observed for surface waters at least over the last two decades, a change in weather conditions (temperature and precipitations) has been proposed to partly explain this increase. While the majority of DOC delivery from soils to stream occurs during rainfall events, a better understanding of the rainfall influence on DOC release is needed. This study has been conducted in Brittany, western France, on agricultural experimental plots receiving either cattle manure (CM) or pig slurry (PS) as fertilizers in accordance with local practices. Each plot was instrumented with a flow meter and an auto sampler for runoff measurements. The results show that export of DOC during high intensity events is higher than during lower intensity rainfalls. Fertilization has a noticeable impact on total organic carbon (TOC) fluxes with an increase of five to seven folds for PS and CM respectively. If TOC shock load occurs shortly after the rainfall peak, DOC maximum appears with the first flush of the event. Organic carbon (OC) is mainly under colloidal (41.2%) and soluble (23.9%) forms during the first stage of a rainfall event and a control of rainfall intensity on OC colloidal transport is suggested. These findings highlight the potential risk of receiving water quality degradation due to the increase of heavier rainfall events with climate change in temperate areas.

International audience; Plague is a vector-borne, highly virulent zoonotic disease caused by the bacterium Yersinia pestis. It persists in nature through transmission between its hosts (wild rodents) and vectors (fleas). During epizootics, the disease expands and spills over to other host species such as humans living in or close to affected areas. Here, we investigate the effect of large-scale climate variability on the dynamics of human plague in the western United States using a 56-year time series of plague reports (1950-2005). We found that El Niño Southern Oscillation and Pacific Decadal Oscillation in combination affect the dynamics of human plague over the western United States. The underlying mechanism could involve changes in precipitation and temperatures that impact both hosts and vectors. It is suggested that snow also may play a key role, possibly through its effects on summer soil moisture, which is known to be instrumental for flea survival and development and sustained growth of vegetation for rodents.

International audience; Visceral leishmaniasis (VL) cases in children less than five years of age were recorded from 1996 through 2006 from Tunisian pediatric departments. Mean incidence rates were calculated for each of the 215 districts in the study area. Averages of annual rainfall and extreme values of low temperatures in winter and high temperatures in summer were used to characterize the climate of each district according to its continentality index and bioclimatic zone. A geographic information system and a local indicator of spatial association were used to summarize the spatial properties of VL distribution. Poisson spatial regression was performed to study the relationship between VL incidence rates and climatic parameters. We identified one hot-spot region of 35 inland districts located mostly in the semi-arid bioclimatic zone and two cold-spots located in coastal regions of the northeastern sub-humid zone and the southeastern arid zone. The incidence rate of VL was positively correlated with mean yearly rainfall and continentality index.

Summary A leptospirosis epidemic affected New Caledonia during the first semester of 2008. A total of 135 cases were diagnosed with a relatively low fatality rate of 3.7%. Heavy rainfalls, related to La Nina, favoured this epidemic. The PCR, routinely used, confirmed 54% of the cases, and the microagglutination test 56%. Epidemiological and economical data on this epidemic are presented and discussed. Epidemie de la leptospirose en Nouvelle-Caledonie: enjeux du diagnostic et charge de morbidite Une epidemie de leptospirose a affecte la Nouvelle-Caledonie au cours du premier semestre de 2008. Un total de 135 cas ont ete diagnostiques avec un taux de letalite relativement faible de 3,7%. Des pluies abondantes liees a‘La Nina’ ont favorise cette epidemie. La PCR utilisee en routine a confirme 54% des cas et le test de microagglutination 56% des cas. Les donnees epidemiologiques et economiques sur cette epidemie sont presentees et discutees ici. Brote de leptospirosis en Nueva Caledonia: cuestiones diagnosticas y carga de enfermedad Una epidemia de leptospirosis afecto a Nueva Caledonia durante el primer semestre del 2008. Se diagnosticaron 135 casos con una tasa de fatalidad relativamente baja del 3.7%. Las lluvias torrenciales, relacionadas con La Nina, favorecieron esta epidemia. La PCR, utilizada rutinariamente, confirmo un 54% de los casos, y la prueba de microaglutinacion un 56%. Se presentan y discuten los datos epidemiologicos y economicos sobre esta epidemia.

International audience; After 35 yr of disease absence, West Nile virus (family Flaviviridae, genus Flavivirus, WNV) circulation has been regularly detected in the Camargue region (southern France) since 2000. WNV was isolated from Culex modestus Ficalbi, which was considered the main vector in southern France after horse outbreaks in the 1960s. Recent WNV transmissions outside of the Cx. modestus distribution suggested the existence of other vectors. To study potential WNV vectors, horse- and bird-baited traps and human landing collections of mosquitoes were carried out weekly from May to October 2004 at two Camargue sites: one site in a wet area and the other site in a dry area, both chosen for their past history of WNV transmission. At the wet site, the most abundant species in bird-baited traps were Culex pipiens L. and Cx. modestus; both species also were found in lower proportions on horses and humans. The most abundant species in horse-baited traps and human landing collections were Aedes caspius (Pallas), Aedes vexans (Meigen), and Anopheles hyrcanus (Pallas) sensu lato; some of these species were occasionally collected with avian blood at the end of the summer. Anopheles maculipennis Meigen sensu lato was an abundant horse feeder, but it was rarely collected landing on human bait and never contained avian blood. At the dry site, Cx. pipiens was the most abundant species in bird- and horse-baited traps. The seasonal and circadian dynamics of these species are analyzed, and their potential in WNV transmission in Camargue discussed.

International audience; Rio de Janeiro is considered as the most important entry point for dengue viruses in Brazil. Using isoenzyme markers, we investigated the genetic structure of the mosquito vector Aedes aegypti sampled at three-month intervals in 14 districts in Rio de Janeiro from December 2002 to December 2003. We detected high levels of genetic differentiation (i.e. high F(ST) values and significant P values), which tended to persist throughout the year. The species does not take advantage of routes and railways to disperse. Genetic structuring was higher in the rainy season, suggesting low dispersion of Ae. aegypti at this time of year when all dengue epidemics have been reported in the city.

International audience; Toxoplasma gondii is a protozoan parasite that infects humans and animal species worldwide. The relative importance of each potential transmission route in the complex life cycle of this coccidia is largely unknown, due to the lack of studies taking into account all routes simultaneously. In this study, we analyzed the transmission of T. gondii in an urban population of stray cats captured between 1993 and 2004. Analyzing prevalence, our aim was to determine which factors influence transmission in this population. Specific anti-T. gondii IgG antibodies were detected using the modified agglutination test. Firstly, we analyzed the kinetics of antibody titers in cats captured several times, using mixed linear models and correspondence analysis. We showed that antibody titers did not vary significantly with time and that titer 40 was the best threshold to separate individuals into two serological groups. Overall, prevalence was only 18.6%, thus transmission of T. gondii is infrequent in this population. As expected, a highly significant association was detected between age and presence of IgG antibodies. Prevalence was lowest in kittens aged 3-4 months, suggesting that newborn kittens may carry maternal antibodies and that vertical transmission is rare. After taking into account the effect of age, logistic regression showed that antibody carriage was related to factors that possibly related to the survival of oocysts: localization in the study site, origin of the cats, maximal temperatures and rain. Our results suggest that in this population, vertical transmission is rare, low predation limits prevalence, and oocyst survival is a determining factor in the risk of infection. We discuss the more general importance of conditions determining oocyst survival in the life cycle of T. gondii.

A compilation of the known distribution of Boophilus ticks in Africa and Latin America is presented, together with details on climate preferences. B. annulatus is recorded mainly in the western part of a strip from the equator to parallel 20 degrees N. It associates with woodlands and forests (lowland rain forest and secondary grassland). This species is also present in the Mediterranean region, associated to woodland and open areas. B. decoloratus extends southern to parallel 20 degrees N, in woodland with montane vegetation and Zambezian miombo; some records have been collected in the highveld grassland. B. geigyi is mainly collected in the western range of a stripe extending between parallels 5 degrees N and 18 degrees N, associated with Sudanian woodland, lowland rain forest with secondary grassland and woodland. Confirmed records of microplus in Africa are restricted to Malagasy region and south and eastern Africa, being predominant in the Zambezian miombo, deciduous forest with secondary grassland, and woodland. In Latin America, microplus is abundant in the Mesoamerican corridor to Venezuela and Colombia, and southern in Brazil and Argentina. The tick is mainly associated to the biomes of Chaco and Pampas in Argentina, the North-central moist Andes, the Atlantic forest (southern range) and the moist Meso-American vegetation (northern range). Most collections of B. annulatus and B. geigyi came from areas where winter minimum temperature is above 15 degrees C, maximum temperatures remain between 33 and 36 degrees C and maximum rainfall is recorded between June and September. B. decoloratus and African B. microplus are recorded in sites with low temperatures in May-September. Minimum temperature requirements are similar for both B. decoloratus and African B. microplus, and both are around 4 degrees C less than the value recorded for collections of Latin-American B. microplus. The rainfall pattern observed for decoloratus shows a minimum in May and June. The requirements of total rainfall are highest for B. microplus in Latin America, while records of African B. microplus are concentrated in areas of low rainfall between May and October, and high rainfall between November and March (low rainfall in the same period for B. decoloratus). Statistical analysis revealed the existence of populations (demes) with ecologically different requirements within each tick species. Both B. annulatus and B. decoloratus showed many different demes clearly associated to defined areas. The collections of Latin American B. microplus are very homogeneous according climate preferences and well separated from the African counterpart.