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The aim of this study was to study the effect of air pollution and noise has on the population in Madrid Community (MAR) in the period 2013-2018, and its economic impact.Time series study analysing emergency hospital admissions in the MAR due to all causes (ICD-10: A00-R99), respiratory causes (ICD-10: J00-J99) and circulatory causes (ICD-10: I00-I99) across the period 2013-2018. The main independent variables were mean daily PMThe following associations were found: NONitrogen dioxide, ozone and noise are the main pollutants to which a large number of hospitalisations in the MAR are attributed, and are thus responsible for a marked deterioration in population health and high related economic impact.

In Spain, two synoptic-scale conditions influence heat wave formation. The first involves advection of warm and dry air masses carrying dust of Saharan origin (North African Dust (NAF) = 1). The second entails anticyclonic stagnation with high insolation and stability (NAF) = 0). Some studies show that the meteorological origin of these heat waves may affect their impact on morbidity and mortality.To determine whether the impact of heat waves on health outcomes in Madrid (Spain) during 2013-2018 varied by synoptic-scale condition.Outcome data consist of daily mortality and daily hospital emergency admissions (morbidity) for natural, circulatory, and respiratory causes. Predictors include daily maximum and minimum temperatures and daily mean concentrations of NOThe effect of heat waves on morbidity and mortality depends on the synoptic situation. The impact is greater under anticyclonic stagnation conditions than under Saharan dust advection. Further, the health impact of pollutants such as PMBased on these findings, we strongly recommend prevention plans to include data on the meteorological situation originating the heat wave, on a synoptic-scale, as well as comprehensive preventive measures against the compounding effect of high temperatures and pollution.

Introduction There is currently little knowledge and few published works on the subject of vulnerability to heat in rural environments at the country level. Therefore, the objective of this study was to determine whether rural areas are more vulnerable to extreme heat than urban areas in Spain. This study aimed to analyze whether a pattern of vulnerability depends on contextual, environmental, demographic, economic and housing variables. Methods An ecological, longitudinal and retrospective study was carried out based on time series data between January 01, 2000 and December 31, 2013 in 42 geographic areas in 10 provinces in Spain. We first analyzed the functional relationship between the mortality rate per million inhabitants and maximum daily temperature (Tmax). We then determined the summer temperature threshold (Pthreshold) (June–September) at which increases in mortality are produced that are attributable to heat. In a second phase, based on Pthreshold, a vulnerability variable was calculated, and its distribution was analyzed using mixed linear models from the Poisson family (link = log). In these models, the dependent variable was vulnerability, and the independent variables were exposure to high temperatures, aridity of the climate, deprivation index, percentage of people over age 65, rurality index, percentage of housing built prior to 1980 and condition of dwellings. Results Rurality was a protective factor, and vulnerability in urban areas was six times greater. In contrast, risk factors included aridity (RR = 5.89 (2.26 15.36)), living in cool summer zones (2.69 (1.23, 5.91)), poverty (4.05 (1.91 8.59)) and the percentage of dysfunctional housing (1.13 (1.04 1.24)). Conclusions Rural areas are less vulnerable to extreme heat than the urban areas analyzed. Also, population groups with worse working conditions and higher percentages of dwellings in poor conditions are more vulnerable.

Background While numerous studies have shown that the impact of cold waves is decreasing as result of various processes of adaptation, far fewer have analysed the time trend shown by such impact, and still fewer have done so for the different provinces of a single country, moreover using a specific cold waves definition for each. This study thus aimed to analyse the time trend of the impact of cold days on daily mortality in Spain across the period 1983–2003. Methods For study purposes, we used daily mortality data for all natural causes except accidents in ten Spanish provinces. The time series was divided into three subperiods. For each period and province, the value of Tthreshold was obtained via the percentile corresponding to the cold day's definition for that province obtained in previous studies. Relative Risks (RRs) and Population Attributable Fraction (PARs) were calculated using Generalised Linear Models (GLMs) with the Poisson regression link. Seasonalities, trends and autoregressive components were controlled. Global RRs and ARs were calculated with the aid of a meta-analysis with random effects for each of the periods. Results The results show that the RRs for Spain as a whole were 1.12 (95% CI: 1.08 1.16) for the first period, 1.15 (95% CI: 1.09 1.22) for the second and 1.18 (95% CI: 1.10 1.26) for the third. The impact of cold days has risen slightly over time, though the differences were not statistically significant. These findings show a clearly different behaviour pattern to that previously found for heat. Conclusion The results obtained in this study do not show a downward trend for colds days. The complexity of the biological mechanisms involved in cold-related mortality and the lack of robust results mean that more research must be done in this particular field of public health.

The objective of this study was to analyze at the level of Spain's 52 provinces province level the temporal evolution of minimum mortality temperatures (MMT) from 1983 to 2018, in order to determine whether the increase in MMT would be sufficient to compensate for the increase in environmental temperatures in Spain for the period. It also aimed to analyze whether the rate of evolution of MMT would be sufficient, were it to remain constant, to compensate for the predicted increase in temperatures in an unfavorable (RCP 8.5) emissions scenario for the time horizon 2051-2100. The independent variable was made up of maximum daily temperature data (Tmax) for the summer months in the reference observatories of each province for the 1983-2018 period. The dependent variable was daily mortality rate due to natural causes (ICD 10: A00-R99). For each year and province, MMT was determined using a quadratic or cubic fit (p < 0.05). Based on the annual MMT values, a linear fit was carried out that allowed for determining the time evolution of MMT. These values were compared with the evolution of Tmax registered in each observatory during the 1983-2018 analyzed period and with the predicted values of Tmax obtained for an RCP8.5 scenario for the period 2051-2100. The rate of global variance in Tmax in the summer months in Spain during the 1983-2018 period was 0.41 °C/decade, while MMT across the whole country increased at a rate of 0.64 °C/decade. Variations in the provinces were heterogeneous. For the 2051-2100 time horizon, there was predicted increase in Tmax values of 0.66 °C/decade, with marked geographical differences. Although at the global level it is possible to speak of adaptation, the heterogeneities among the provinces suggest that the local level measures are needed in order to facilitate adaptation in those areas where it is not occurring.

11 Pags.- 1 Tabl.- 4 Figs. Original content from this work may be used under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 licence., We present a long-term assessment of precipitation trends in Southwestern Europe (1850–2018) using data from multiple sources, including observations, gridded datasets and global climate model experiments. Contrary to previous investigations based on shorter records, we demonstrate, using new long-term, quality controlled precipitation series, the lack of statistically significant long-term decreasing trends in precipitation for the region. Rather, significant trends were mostly found for shorter periods, highlighting the prevalence of interdecadal and interannual variability at these time-scales. Global climate model outputs from three CMIP experiments are evaluated for periods concurrent with observations. Both the CMIP3 and CMIP5 ensembles show precipitation decline, with only CMIP6 showing agreement with long term trends in observations. However, for both CMIP3 and CMIP5 large interannual and internal variability among ensemble members makes it difficult to identify a trend that is statistically different from observations. Across both observations and models, our results make it difficult to associate any declining trends in precipitation in Southwestern Europe to anthropogenic forcing at this stage., This work was supported by the research projects CGL2017-82216-R, CGL2017-83866-C3-3-R and PCI2019-103631, financed by the Spanish Commission of Science and Technology and FEDER; CROSSDRO project financed by the AXIS (Assessment of Cross(X)—sectoral climate Impacts and pathways for Sustainable transformation), JPI-Climate co-funded call of the European Commission and INDECIS which is part of ERA4CS, an ERA-NET initiated by JPI Climate, and funded by FORMAS (SE), DLR (DE), BMWFW (AT), IFD (DK), MINECO (ES), ANR (FR) with co-funding by the European Union (Grant 690462). Dhais Peña-Angulo received a 'Juan de la Cierva' postdoctoral contract (FJCI-2017-33652 Spanish Ministry of Economy and Competitiveness, MEC). Conor Murphy was supported by the Irish Environmental Protection Agency (Grant Nos. 2019-CCRP-MS.60). Marco Turco has received funding from the Spanish Ministry of Science, Innovation and Universities through the project PREDFIRE (RTI2018-099711-J-I00), which is co-financed with the European Regional Development Fund (ERDF/FEDER).

The increase in the frequency and intensity of heat waves is one of the most unquestionable effects of climate change. Therefore, the progressive increase in maximum temperatures will have a clear incidence on the increase in mortality, especially in countries that are vulnerable due to geographical location or their socioeconomic characteristics. Different research studies show that the mortality attributable to heat is decreasing globally, and research is centred on future scenarios. One way of detecting the existence of a lesser impact of heat is through the increase in the so-called temperature of minimum mortality (TMM). The objective of this study is to determine the temporal evolution of TMM in two Spanish provinces (Seville and Madrid) during the 1983-2018 period and to evaluate whether the rate of adaptation to heat is appropriate. We used the gross rate of daily mortality due to natural causes (CIEX: A00-R99) and the maximum daily temperature (°C) to determine the quinquennial TMM using dispersion diagrams and realizing fit using quadratic and cubic curvilinear estimation. The same analysis was carried out at the annual level, by fitting an equation to the line of TMM for each province, whose slope, if significant (p

Spain's current heat wave prevention plans are activated according to administrative areas. This study analyses the determination of threshold temperatures for triggering prevention-plan activation by reference to isoclimatic areas, and describes the public health benefits. We subdivided the study area - the Madrid Autonomous Region (MAR) - into three, distinct, isoclimatic areas: 'North', 'Central' and 'South', and grouped daily natural-cause mortality (ICD-10: A00-R99) in towns of over 10,000 inhabitants (2000-2009 period) accordingly. Using these three areas rather than the MAR as a whole would have resulted in a possible decrease in mortality of 73 persons (38-108) in the North area, and in aborting unnecessary activation of the plan 153 times in the Central area and 417 times in the South area. Our results indicate that extrapolating this methodology would bring benefits associated with a reduction in attributable mortality and improved effectiveness of public health interventions.

BACKGROUND: In recent years, a number of studies have been conducted with the aim of analysing the impact that high temperatures will have on mortality over different time horizons under different climate scenarios. Very few of these studies take into account the fact that the threshold temperature used to define a heat wave will vary over time, and there are practically none which calculate this threshold temperature for each geographical area on the assumption that there will be variations at a country level. OBJECTIVE: To analyse the impact that high temperatures will have on mortality across the periods 2021-2050 and 2051-2100 under a high-emission climate scenario (RCP8.5), in a case: (a) where adaptation processes are not taken into account; and (b) where complete adaptation processes are taken into account. MATERIAL AND METHODS: Based on heat-wave definition temperature (Tthreshold) values previously calculated for the reference period, 2000-2009, for each Spanish provincial capital, and their impact on daily mortality as measured by population attributable risk (PAR), the impact of high temperatures on mortality will be calculated for the above-mentioned future periods. Two hypotheses will be considered, namely: (a) that Tthreshold does not vary over time (scenario without adaptation to heat); and, (b) that Tthreshold does vary over time, with the percentile to which said Tthreshold corresponds being assumed to remain constant (complete adaptation to heat). The temperature data were sourced from projections generated by Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) climate models adapted to each region's local characteristics by the State Meteorological Agency (Agencia Estatal de Meteorología/AEMET). Population-growth projections were obtained from the National Statistics Institute (Instituto Nacional de Estadística/INE). In addition, an economic estimate of the resulting impact will be drawn up. RESULTS: The mean value of maximum daily temperatures will rise, in relation to those of the reference period (2000-2009), by 1.6⁰C across the period 2021-2050 and by 3.3⁰C across the period 2051-2100. In a case where there is no heat-adaptation process, overall annual mortality attributable to high temperatures in Spain would amount to 1414 deaths/year (95% CI: 1089-1771) in the period 2021-2050, rising to 12,896 deaths/year (95% CI: 9852-15,976) in the period 2051-2100. In a case where there is a heat-adaptation process, annual mortality would be 651 deaths/year (95% CI: 500-807) in the period 2021-2050, and 931 deaths per year (95% CI: 770-1081) in the period 2051-2100. These results display a high degree of heterogeneity. The savings between a situation that does envisage and one that does not envisage an adaptive process is €49,100 million/year over the 2051-2100 time horizon. CONCLUSION: A non-linear increase in maximum daily temperatures was observed, which varies widely from some regions to others, with an increase in mean values for Spain as a whole that is not linear over time. The high degree of heterogeneity found in heat-related mortality by region and the great differences observed on considering an adaptive versus a non-adaptive process render it necessary for adaptation plans to be implemented at a regional level. The authors gratefully acknowledge Project ENPY 1133/16 and Project ENPY 107/18 grants from the Carlos III Institute of Health. Sí

Introduction Global warming is resulting in an increase in temperatures which is set to become more marked by the end of the century and depends on the accelerating pace of greenhouse gas emissions into the atmosphere. Yet even in this scenario, so-called “cold waves” will continue to be generated and have an impact on health. Objectives This study sought to analyse the impact of cold waves on daily mortality at a provincial level in Spain over the 2021–2050 and 2051–2100 time horizons under RCP4.5 and RCP 8.5 emission scenarios, on the basis of two hypotheses: (1) that the cold-wave definition temperature (T threshold) would not vary over time; and, (2) that there would be a variation in T threshold. Material and methods The results of a retrospective study undertaken for Spain as a whole across the period 2000–2009 enabled us to ascertain the cold-wave definition temperature at a provincial level and its impact on health, measured by reference to population attributable risk (PAR). The minimum daily temperatures projected for each provincial capital considering the above time horizons and emission scenarios were provided by the State Meteorological Agency. On the basis of the T threshold definition values and minimum daily temperatures projected for each province, we calculated the expected impact of low temperatures on mortality under the above two hypotheses. Keeping the PAR values constant, it was assumed that the mortality rate would vary in accordance with the available data. Results If T threshold remained constant over the above time horizons under both emission scenarios, there would be no cold-related mortality. If T threshold were assumed to vary over time, however, then cold-related mortality would not disappear: it would instead remain practically constant over time and give rise to an estimated overall figure of around 250 deaths per year, equivalent to close on a quarter of Spain's current annual cold-related mortality and entailing a cost of approximately €1000 million per year. Conclusion Given that cold waves are not going to disappear and that their impact on mortality is far from negligible and is likely to remain so, public health prevention measures must be implemented to minimise these effects as far as possible.

Póster presentado en: EGU General Assembly 2019 celebrada del 7 al 12 de abril en Viena, Austria.

Many of the studies that analyze the future impact of climate change on mortality assume that the temperature that constitutes a heat wave will not change over time. This is unlikely, however, given the process of adapting to heat changes, prevention plans, and improvements in social and health infrastructure. The objective of this study is to analyze whether, during the 1983-2013 period, there has been a temporal change in the maximum daily temperatures that constitute a heat wave (Tthreshold) in Spain, and to investigate whether there has been variation in the attributable risk (AR) associated with mortality due to high temperatures in this period. This study uses daily mortality data for natural causes except accidents CIEX: A00-R99 in municipalities of over 10,000 inhabitants in 10 Spanish provinces and maximum temperature data from observatories located in province capitals. The time series is divided into three periods: 1983-1992, 1993-2003 and 2004-2013. For each period and each province, the value of Tthreshold was calculated using scatter-plot diagram of the daily mortality pre-whitened series. For each period and each province capitals, it has been calculated the number of heat waves and quantifying the impact on mortality through generalized linear model (GLM) methodology with the Poisson regression link. These models permits obtained the relative risks (RR) and attributable risks (AR). Via a meta-analysis, using the Global RR and AR were calculated the heat impact for the total of the 10 provinces. The results show that in the first two periods RR remained constant RR: 1.14 (CI95%: 1.09 1.19) and RR: 1.14 (CI95%: 1.10 1.18), while the third period shows a sharp decrease with respect to the prior two periods RR: 1.01 (CI95%: 1.00 1.01); the difference is statistically significant. In Spain there has been a sharp decrease in mortality attributable to heat over the past 10 years. The observed variation in RR puts into question the results of numerous studies that analyze the future impact of heat on mortality in different temporal scenarios and show it to be constant over time. The authors gratefully acknowledge the Project ENPY 1133/16 and the Project ENPY 107/18 from the Carlos III Institute of Health. Sí

The present study is focused on the study of the variability and the most significant wind speed patterns in Spain during the winter season analyzing as well connections between the wind speed field and the geopotential height at 1000 hPa over an Atlantic area. The daily wind speed variability is investigated by means of principal components using wind speed observations. Five main modes of variation, accounting 66% of the variance of the original data, have been identified, highlighting their differences in the Spanish wind speed behavior. Connections between the wind speeds and the large-scale atmospheric field were underlined by means of composite maps. Composite maps were built up to give an averaged atmospheric circulation associated with extreme wind speed variability in Spain. Moreover, the principal component analysis was also applied to the geopotential heights, providing relationships between the large-scale atmospheric modes and the observational local wind speeds. Such relationships are shown in terms of the cumulated frequency values of wind speed associated with the extreme scores of the obtained large-scale atmospheric modes, showing those large-scale atmospheric patterns more dominant in the wind field in Spain.

BACKGROUND: The Low Temperature Days (LTD) have attracted far less attention than that of High Temperature Days (HTD), though its impact on mortality is at least comparable. This lower degree of attention may perhaps be due to the fact that its influence on mortality is less pronounced and longer-term, and that there are other concomitant infectious winters factors. In a climate-change scenario, the studies undertaken to date report differing results. The aim of this study was to analyse mortality attributable to both thermal extremes in Spain's 52 provinces across the period 2000-2009, and estimate the related economic cost to show the benefit or "profitability" of implementing prevention plans against LTD. METHODS: Previous studies enabled us: to obtain the maximum daily temperature above which HTD occurred and the minimum daily temperature below which LTD occurred in the 52 provincial capitals analysed across the same study period; and to calculate the relative and attributable risks (%) associated with daily mortality in each capital. These measures of association were then used to make different calculations to obtain the daily mean mortality attributable to both thermal extremes. To this end, we obtained a summary of the number of degrees whereby the temperature exceeded (excess °C) or fell short (deficit °C) of the threshold temperature for each capital, and calculated the respective number of extreme temperatures days. The economic estimates rated the prevention plans as being 68% effective. RESULTS: Over the period considered, the number of HTD (4373) was higher than the number of LTD (3006) for Spain as a whole. Notwithstanding this, in every provincial capital the mean daily mortality attributable to heat was lower (3deaths/day) than that attributable to cold (3.48deaths/day). In terms of the economic impact of the activation of prevention plans against LTD, these could be assumed to avoid 2.37 deaths on each LTD, which translated as a saving of €0.29M. Similarly, in the case of heat, 2.04 deaths could be assumed to be avoided each day on which the prevention plan against HTD was activated, amounting to a saving of €0.25M. While the economic cost of cold-related mortality across the ten-year period 2000-2009 was €871.7M, that attributable to heat could be put at €1093.2M. CONCLUSION: The effect of extreme temperatures on daily mortality was similar across the study period for Spain overall. The lower number of days with LTD meant, however, that daily cold-related mortality was higher than daily heat-related mortality, thereby making prevention plans against LTD more "profitable" prevention plans against HTD in terms of avoidable mortality. This study was supported by grants FIS ENPY 1001/13 & SEPY 1037/14 from Spain's Health Research Fund. Sí

The purpose of this work is to obtain daily mean wind speed and wind gust estimations by means of the analog model. To do this, three data sets have been used: daily 1000 hPa geopotential height field over the North Atlantic, observational daily mean wind speed and observational daily gust wind speeds in Spain. Previously to the analog method, a Principal Component Analysis is used to reduce the dimensionality of the large-scale atmospheric database. Here, the analog method is based on finding in the historic geopotential height data base, a PC subset of large-scale atmospheric patterns that are the most similar to a large-scale atmospheric pattern used as input. In the algorithm process of the analog model, two Euclidean metrics in two different distances used as weighting functions are defined and analyzed for finding the best analogs. Thus, similar atmospheric situations to any particular atmospheric situation to be modeled have been determined and from them, several and different wind fields have been estimated, to characterize the wind fields in Spain. Several deterministic and probabilistic results are shown. Results of bias, spatial correlations and root mean squared errors between the estimated and observational wind fields are displayed, evaluating the model skilful for predicting mean wind and gusts. The probabilistic results are shown by means of Brier Skill Scores, rank histograms and reliability diagrams. The procedure used in this paper to find analogs, reducing previously the dimensionality of the large-scale atmospheric data and obtaining PCs, has been revealed as a good technique to find similar patterns to any particular one.

This paper investigates the relationships between the Global Circulation Model (GCM)-simulated 1000 hPa geopotential heights (taken from the ERA40 reanalysis) over the North Atlantic and the regional wind over the Iberian Peninsula for springtime (March to May). The main goal is to recognize the atmospheric circulation patterns linked to wind anomaly configurations. The method used for the downscaling is singular value decomposition (SVD). After applying a Monte Carlo approach to assess the statistical significance of the obtained modes, the SVD analysis highlighted that the covariability is dominated by three main large-scale features of the atmospheric circulation over the North Atlantic: (1) a first mode that relates local wind to the Scandinavian pattern (SCAN), by which a blocking pattern is linked to below-normal winds, (2) a second covariability mode associated with the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) pattern that correlates with wind over Iberia. An enhanced spring NAO pattern is related to positive (negative) wind correlations over the northern (southern) Iberia and (3) a third SVD mode that relates wind to the East Atlantic (EA) pattern promoting a dissimilar behaviour in the Iberian wind with positive (negative) wind correlations in the western (eastern) part of Iberia. To conclude, composite maps were built up to give an average circulation associated with coherent wind variability over Iberia. Copyright © 2010 Royal Meteorological Society

The present paper is focused on the analysis of the characterization of the autumn precipitation regime over the Iberian Peninsula. To this aim, different long-term, observed, hindcasted and reanalysed datasets are used to analyse the 41-year (1961–2001) time period. A long-term high-resolution precipitation database, derived from more than 4000 in situ observational stations, is used to characterize the rainfall regime. This observational data, used as a reference, allows the verification of the realism of different existing long-term hindcasted and reanalysed products. These verification and comparison exercises were carried out with the autumn monthly hindcasted data derived from the high-resolution Mediterranean Hindcast of Dynamic Processes of the Ocean and Coastal Areas of Europe (HIPOCAS) database, as well as the NCEP and ERA global reanalysis data. The characterization of autumn Iberian rainfall is carried out, both in terms of spatial and time variability, by means of spatial distribution of different statistics and a principal component analysis (PCA), as well as through an analysis based on wavelet methodology. The statistical comparative analysis between the HIPOCAS and the observed precipitation data shows a noticeable agreement existing between both datasets, highlighting that the Mediterranean HIPOCAS hindcast database is a useful tool that is able to accurately reproduce and largely capture the main spatial and time features that regionally configure the Iberian rainfall regime along the studied 41-year period. Moreover, it is verified that the hindcasted HIPOCAS data notably improves the characterization of the autumn Iberian precipitation provided by the aforementioned global reanalysis products, asserting that the HIPOCAS precipitation dataset can well be used in regional studies related to hydrometeorology, statistical downscaling and climate variability. Copyright © 2008 Royal Meteorological Society

A 44-year (1958–2001) homogeneous Mediterranean high-resolution atmospheric database was generated through dynamical downscaling within the HIPOCAS Project framework. The present work attempts to provide a validation of the monthly 41-autumnal (1961–2001) HIPOCAS precipitation over the Iberian Peninsula, being also provided an evaluation of its improvement versus current global reanalysis data sets. A statistical comparative analysis between observed, HIPOCAS and global reanalyses precipitation data sets was carried out, highlighting the noticeable agreement existing between the observed and the HIPOCAS precipitation data sets in terms of not only time and spatial distribution, but also in terms of total amount of precipitation. A principal component analysis is carried out showing that the patterns derived from the HIPOCAS data largely capture the main characteristics of the studied field. Moreover, it is worth to note that the HIPOCAS patterns reproduce accurately the observed regional characteristics linked to the main orographic features of the study domain.

The heavy rain event of November 2001 in the western Mediterranean area is diagnosed using the mesoscale model MM5. The flash flood episode is identified in the second mode of a Singular Value Decomposition Analysis applied to 300 hPa geopotential height and regional precipitation. Synoptically, the episode is characterised by the presence of a long-lived Omega blocking geopotential pattern. Strong similarity with the obtained statistical mode is found, highlighting the strength of the synoptic variables-regional precipitation link. A set of mesoscale numerical simulations using MM5 is performed to investigate the mechanisms responsible for the convection development through several output diagnoses. A potential vorticity evolution shows how dry air masses are extruded from the stratospheric levels, promoting strong cyclonic circulation at all levels. A deep vertical column of high relative humidity over the Algerian coastline keeps the few and geographically confined convective cells responsible for the heavy precipitation over different zones at the study area. The study of mesoscale environment parameters shows enhanced conditional instability through a deep troposphere layer. Strong vertical wind shear favours conditions to allow organization of long-lived supercell convective structures, evolving to mesoscale convective systems.

A 44-year (1958–2001) homogeneous, Mediterranean, high-resolution atmospheric database was generated through dynamical downscaling within the HIPOCAS (Hindcast of Dynamic Processes of the Ocean and Coastal Areas of Europe) Project framework. This work attempts to provide a validation of the monthly winter HIPOCAS precipitation over the Iberian Peninsula and the Balearic Islands and to evaluate the potential improvement of these new hindcasted data versus global reanalysis datasets. The validation was performed through the comparative analysis with a precipitation database derived from 4,617 in situ stations located over Iberia and the Balearics. The statistical comparative analysis between the observed and the HIPOCAS fields highlights their very good agreement not only in terms of spatial and time distribution, but also in terms of total amount of precipitation. A principal component analysis is carried out, showing that the patterns derived from the HIPOCAS data largely capture the main characteristics of the observed field. Moreover, it is worth to note that the HIPOCAS patterns reproduce accurately the observed regional characteristics linked to the main orographic features of the study domain. The existence of high correlations between the hindcasted and observed principal component time series gives a measure of the model performance ability. An additional comparative study of the HIPOCAS winter precipitation with global reanalysis data (NCEP and ERA) is performed. This study reveals the important regional improvement in the characterization of the observed precipitation introduced by the HIPOCAS hindcast relative to the above global reanalyses. Such improvement is effective not only in terms of total amount values, but also in the spatial distribution, the observed field being much more realistically reproduced by HIPOCAS than by the global reanalysis data.

The heavy rain event of November 2001 in the western Mediterranean area was synoptically characterized by the presence of a long-lived Omega blocking geopotential pattern. A set of mesoscale numerical simulations using MM5 is performed to investigate the mechanisms responsible for the convection development through several output diagnosis. A potential vorticity evolution showed how dry air masses were extruded from the stratospheric levels promoting strong cyclonic circulation at all levels. Moreover, a deep vertical column of high relative humidity over the Algerian coastline maintained the few and geographically confined convective cells responsible for the heavy precipitation. Mesoscale environment parameters indicated enhanced conditional instability through a deep troposphere layer. Also, strong vertical wind shear values, higher than 50 ms–1 over the troposphere, were derived, indicating enough strength to promote necessary conditions to organize and keep mesoscale convective structures.

Summary An objective classification of the precipitation field over the Iberian Peninsula and the Balearic Islands is obtained. Data are derived from a high-resolution daily precipitation dataset obtained from in-situ measurements. The dataset, Iberian monthly Precipitation Dataset (IPD), consists of monthly precipitation data over a 25 km � 25 km grid from 1 st January 1961 to 31 st December 2003. Therefore, 960 data series over the Iberian Peninsula and the Balearic Islands are disposed over the grid for 43-year period. Multi-resolution wavelet analysis is used to extract similar information in the precipitation field at different timescales. An objective classification of the obtained wavelet coefficient series is carried out by means of the Kohonen’s neural network, also named Self-Organizing Map (SOM). SOM is formed by an unsupervised learning algorithm that may be used to find clusters of similar events in the input data and is able to identify some underlying dynamic structures of the multi-dimensional datasets. SOM is applied to the wavelet coefficients for intramonthly, intermonthly and interannual oscillations, obtaining self-organised maps which objectively identify similar zones of precipitation behaviour over the Iberian Peninsula. The homogeneity of the patterns is also studied by means of non-parametric correlations, energy scalograms and tests of significance. The intramonthly, intermonthly and interannual waves resulted in seven, five and three SOM patterns, respectively. As timescale increases, the wavelet series coefficients tend to be highly clustered. The results indicate that as the oscillation frequencies decrease, the Iberian precipitation behaves more linearly.

The variability of autumn precipitation in the western Mediterranean and its relationship to the large-scale atmospheric variability during the period 1948 to 1989 is assessed. A singular value decomposition analysis is used to establish modes of coupled variability between regional precipitation and geopotential height (Z300), zonal (U-wind) and meridional (V-wind) wind components at the 300 hPa level. The Z300/precipitation coupling, which accounts for 52% of the total squared covariance, is strong during the autumn. The first Z300 coupled mode, in its positive phase, is characterised by a dipole structure with negative anomalies over Scandinavia and positive anomalies over the Iberian Peninsula in the Z300 and negative precipitation anomalies in the western Mediterranean. In its negative phase, a coupled pattern is found showing a high-over-low block and positive precipitation anomalies over the Mediterranean area. The coupling depicted by the second mode is weaker than that found in the first mode. The second coupled mode (21% of the total squared covariance) is characterised by negative anomalies in the eastern North Atlantic and positive ones over North Africa and the central Mediterranean in the Z300 and negative anomalies in the regional precipitation. Consistent with the results of the two first modes mentioned, the coupled patterns of either U-wind/precipitation or V-wind/precipitation are found to be coherent with those for Z300/precipitation. Composite maps were obtained to give a representation of the average circulation associated with coherent precipitation variability in the western Mediterranean. The regional impacts of both modes are investigated and the large-scale dynamic patterns presented are important modes of variability. Taking into account data for the whole of the twentieth century, results show that the first singular mode is responsible for the decadal trends and long term changes in precipitation. The late 1970s and 1980s is shown as the drier period and the late 1950s and early 1960s as the wettest years of the century.

The relationship between springtime (March–May) precipitation in the western Mediterranean area and several North Atlantic teleconnection patterns of low-frequency variability is analysed for the period 1948–89. Singular value decomposition analysis (SVDA) of the springtime monthly mean fields for the three paired combinations of 300 hPa geopotential height–precipitation, 300 hPa zonal wind–precipitation and 300 hPa meridional wind–precipitation has shown that their covariability is dominated by two main large-scale atmospheric circulation patterns. In every SVD combination, the first mode relates precipitation anomalies to the east Atlantic jet pattern. Above-normal rainfall anomalies are linked with a blocking pattern affecting Iberian weather. The second covariability mode for the three SVD As takes into account the response of the precipitation to the North Atlantic oscillation (NAO) pattern. An enhanced spring NAO pattern is related to positive (negative) precipitation anomalies over the southern (northern) western Mediterranean. Through these two modes, the North Atlantic large-scale atmospheric dynamics explains about 50% of the total spring precipitation variability in the western Mediterranean area. A Monte Carlo approach has allowed setting the statistical significance of the modes obtained and to assess the effectiveness of the western Mediterranean precipitation response to the teleconnection patterns. Copyright  2004 Royal Meteorological Society.

The Conchos River is one of the most important in northern Mexico and the main surface waterway in the arid state of Chihuahua. The Luis L. Leon dam produces the Luis L. Leon Reservoir, which is the last major reservoir before the Conchos River enters the Rio Grande at the Texas-Chihuahua border. Activity concentrations (AC) of 234,238U and 210Po in fillet and liver of three stocked fish species (Lepomis cyanellus, Cyprinus carpio and Ictalurus furcatus), as well as in water from the Luis L. Leon reservoir were determined. 238U and 234U ACs in fillet samples showed values of 0.007-0.014 and 0.01-0.02 Bq kg−1 wet weight (ww), respectively. Liver samples for Lepomis cyanellus, Cyprinus carpio and Ictalurus furcatus species, present 210Po AC of 1.16-3.26 0.70-1.13 and 0.93-1.37 Bq⋅kg−1 ww. The elemental Bioaccumulation Factor (BAF) for fish tissues respect to their concentrations in water was determined. Lepomis cyanellus species showed the highest BAF for total uranium in fillet, with value 1.5. The annual ...

The present study is focused on the analysis of the relationships between weather patterns and wind speeds over Iberia. A weather pattern classification is made by applying a multivariate methodology based on principal components to the Atlantic geopotential height field. From such classification, a set of composite plots are illustrated, showing how the different obtained atmospheric patterns have influence over the wind speed behaviour and the wind speed values. Moreover, the relationships between the obtained principal components and the observational local wind speeds are also provided in terms of the wind speed cumulated probability values and the associated curve area values related to the highest and lowest scores of the component's time series.

This paper investigates, by means of Singular Value Decomposition analysis, the springtime relationships between the mean sea-level pressure field over the North Atlantic and the regional wind gusts over the Iberian Peninsula, identifying the main atmospheric circulation patterns linked to gust wind speed anomaly configurations. The statistical significance of the obtained modes is investigated by means of Monte Carlo approach. The analysis highlighted that the covariability is dominated by two main large-scale features of the atmospheric circulation over the North Atlantic. The first mode relates to Iberian gust wind speeds to the Scandinavian pattern (SCAND), linking the large-scale pattern to above-normal wind gusts. The second covariability mode, associated with the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) pattern, correlates with maximum wind speeds over Iberia. An enhanced spring NAO pattern is related to positive (negative) wind gust correlations over northern (southern) Iberia. To find true relationships between large-scale atmospheric field and the gust wind speeds, composite maps were built up to give an average atmospheric circulation associated with coherent wind gust variability over Iberia. This work has been partially supported by the research projects CGL2007-61328/CLI, CGL2009-07950, UE SafeWind Grant Agreement No. 213740 and VA025A10-2.

Mathematical morphology coupled with creation of a time stack image and principal oscillation pattern analysis are used to determine the water depths over a known sloping bottom from synthetic remotely sensed images. The data, produced by a simulator, consisted of 60 images, each 256/spl times/256 pixels, separated by 1 second in time. The mathematical depth results are compared with those derived using principal oscillation pattern analysis by which three significant complex pairs of patterns are found with their corresponding characteristic times: e-folding times and periods. From these results and by using the classical hydrodynamic theory of gravity waves, water depths are determined. Both analyses yield small errors for the simulated data, indicating both methods should perform reliably for real data.

To isolate the physical mechanism responsible for the relationship between North Atlantic large-scale circulation and precipitation amounts over Western Europe, a singular value decomposition (SVD) has been performed. This analysis is applied to a 30-winter dataset consisting of both monthly mean precipitation anomalies in Iberia and monthly mean 500 hPa geopotential height anomalies over the North Atlantic Ocean. The SVD analysis yields three significant pairs of patterns that account for 93% of the squared covariance between the two fields. This great amount of covariance indicates the strong coupling between large-scale circulation described by the 500 hPa height anomalies and the regional precipitation in the Iberian Peninsula.

The heavy rain event of 30 January to 4 February 1993 in the Segura Basin in SE Iberia is investigated. The study emphasizes the atmospheric processes that led to thunderstorm development. The meteorological scenario has been separated into preconvective and convective periods and into large-scale and subsynoptic settings. The warm, moist air flow from the Mediterranean Sea, channelled by a high-over-low blocking pattern with a cold front over southeastern Iberia appears to be the main reason that helped trigger a severe weather occurrence. The study of the mesoscale environment parameters showed an enhanced conditional unstability through a deep troposphere layer with a moderate to strong vertical wind shear that promoted conditions to allow organization of long-lived convective structures.

Spanish building legislation has recently changed and now requires an updated and restructured Technical Building Code which is in accordance with European directives. The norm contained in this Code is based on studies of extreme values for climatic elements such as temperature, precipitation and wind. Revised maps of extreme values for climatic elements with a 50-year recurrence interval are required. Here, extreme maximum and minimum temperature maps for Spain are evaluated and mapped by means of geographical information technology. The data are extracted from the historical database held by the Spanish Meteorological Institute. Daily extreme temperatures from 1,181 stations with records going back more than 30 years have been used. The maximum and minimum temperatures are determined as 50-year mean recurrence interval values. To obtain these values, a Gumbel distribution is fitted to the extreme annual values extracted from the database. Spatial interpolation in a regular 5 km×5 km grid of the annual maximum temperature is made by ordinary kriging. Meanwhile, for the annual minimum temperature a residual kriging has been applied due to its strong dependence on altitude. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

The quasigeostrophic theory is used to address the role of diabatic forcing in synoptic scale processes over Iberia. A parametrization of diabatic heating is obtained in terms of a thermodynamic variable called the ice-liquid water potential temperature which is conservative under all phase changes of water. A case study objectively selected by means of a rotated principal component analysis over the diabatic field is analyzed to test the proposed parametrization. This study highlights the fact that the magnitudes of diabatic forcing and dynamic forcing are very nearly the same throughout the troposphere. The results also show that the composite diabatic heating is a better representation for both cloudiness and precipitation fields than the dynamic forcing.