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Spatial soil databases can help model complex phenomena in which soils are a decisive factor – for example, evaluating agricultural potential or estimating carbon storage capacity. The Latin America and Caribbean Soil Information System, SISLAC, is a regional initiative promoted by the Food and Agriculture Organization's (FAO) Latin America and the Caribbean Soil Partnership to contribute to sustainable management of soil. SISLAC includes data from 49 084 soil profiles distributed unevenly across the continent, making it the region's largest soil database. In addition, there are other soil databases in the region with about 40 000 soil profiles that can be integrated into SISLAC and improve it. However, some problems hinder its usages, such as the quality of the data and their high dimensionality. The objective of this research is evaluate the quality of the SISLAC data and the other available soil databases to generate a new improved version that meets the minimum quality requirements to be used for different purposes or practical applications. The results show that 15 % of the existing soil profiles had an inaccurate description of the diagnostic horizons and 17 % of the additional profiles already existed in SISLAC; therefore, a total of 32 % of profiles were excluded for these two reasons. Further correction of an additional 4.5 % of existing inconsistencies improved overall data quality. The improved database consists of 66 746 profiles and is available for public use at https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.7876731 (Díaz-Guadarrama and Guevara, 2023). This revised version of SISLAC data offers the opportunity to generate information that helps decision-making on issues in which soils are a decisive factor. It can also be used to plan future soil surveys in areas with low density or where updated information is required.

Brain-computer interfaces (BCIs) are scientifically well established, but they rarely arrive in the daily lives of potential end-users. This could be in part because electroencephalography (EEG), a prevalent method to acquire brain activity for BCI operation, is considered too impractical to be applied in daily life of end-users with physical impairment as an assistive device. Hence, miniaturized EEG systems such as the cEEGrid have been developed. While they promise to be a step toward bridging the gap between BCI development, lab demonstrations, and home use, they still require further validation. Encouragingly, the cEEGrid has already demonstrated its ability to record visually and auditorily evoked event-related potentials (ERP), which are important as input signal for many BCIs. With this study, we aimed at evaluating the cEEGrid in the context of a BCI based on tactually evoked ERPs. To compare the cEEGrid with a conventional scalp EEG, we recorded brain activity with both systems simultaneously. Forty healthy participants were recruited to perform a P300 oddball task based on vibrotactile stimulation at four different positions. This tactile paradigm has been shown to be feasible for BCI repeatedly but has never been tested with the cEEGrid. We found distinct P300 deflections in the cEEGrid data, particularly at vertical bipolar channels. With an average of 63%, the cEEGrid classification accuracy was significantly above the chance level (25%) but significantly lower than the 81% reached with the EEG cap. Likewise, the P300 amplitude was significantly lower (cEEGrid R2–R7: 1.87 μV, Cap Cz: 3.53 μV). These results indicate that a tactile BCI using the cEEGrid could potentially be operated, albeit with lower efficiency. Additionally, participants’ somatosensory sensitivity was assessed, but no correlation to the accuracy of either EEG system was shown. Our research contributes to the growing amount of literature comparing the cEEGrid to conventional EEG systems and provides first evidence that the tactile P300 can be recorded behind the ear. A BCI based on a thus simplified EEG system might be more readily accepted by potential end-users, provided the accuracy can be substantially increased, e.g., by training and improved classification.

We show a long-term erosion monitoring of several geomorphologically active gully systems on Little Ice Age lateral moraines in the European Central–Eastern Alps, covering a total time period from 1953 to 2019 and including several survey periods in order to identify corresponding morphodynamic trends. For the implementation, DEM (digital elevation model) of Differences (DoDs) were calculated, based on multitemporal high-resolution digital elevation models from historical aerial images (generated by structure from motion photogrammetry with multi-view stereo) and light detection and ranging from airborne platforms. Two approaches were implemented to achieve the corresponding objectives. First, by calculating linear regression models using the accumulated sediment yield and the corresponding catchment area (on a log–log scale), the range of the variability in the spatial distribution of erosion values within the sites. Second, we use volume calculations to determine the total and the mean sediment yield (as well as erosion rates) of the entire sites. Subsequently, both the sites and the different time periods of both approaches are compared. Based on the slopes of the calculated regression lines, it can be shown that the highest variability in the sediment yield at the sites occurs in the first time period (mainly 1950s to 1970s). This can be attributed to the fact that within some sites the sediment yield per square metre increases clearly more strongly (regression lines with slopes up to 1.5). In contrast, in the later time periods (1970s to mid-2000s and mid-2000s to 2017/2019), there is generally a decrease in 10 out of 12 cases (regression lines with slopes around 1). However, even at sites with an increase in the variability in the sediment yield over time, the earlier high variabilities are no longer reached. This means that the spatial pattern of erosion in the gully heads changes over time as it becomes more uniform. Furthermore, using sediment volume calculations and corresponding erosion rates, we show a generally decreasing trend in geomorphic activity (amount of sediment yield) between the different time periods in 10 out of 12 sites, while 2 sites show an opposite trend, where morphodynamics increase and remain at the same level. Finally, we summarise the results of long-term changes in the morphodynamics of geomorphologically active areas on lateral moraines by presenting the “sediment activity concept”, which, in contrast to theoretical models, is based on actually calculated erosion. The level of geomorphic activity depends strongly on the characteristics of the sites, such as size, slope length, and slope gradient, some of which are associated with deeply incised gullies. It is noticeable that especially areas with influence of dead ice over decades in the lower slope area show high geomorphic activity. Furthermore, we show that system internal factors, as well as the general paraglacial adjustment process, have a greater influence on long-term morphodynamics than changing external weather and climate conditions, which, however, had a slight impact mainly in the last, i.e. most recent, time period (mid-2000s to 2017/2019) and may have led to an increase in erosion at the sites.

Smallholder farming systems in southern Africa are characterized by low-input management and integrated livestock and crop production. Low yields and dry-season feed shortages are common. To meet growing food demands, sustainable intensification (SI) of these systems is an important policy goal. While mixed crop–livestock farming may offer greater productivity, it implies trade-offs between feed supply, soil nutrient replenishment, soil carbon accumulation, and other ecosystem functions (ESFs) and ecosystem services (ESSs). Such settings require a detailed system understanding to assess the performance of prevalent management practices and identify potential SI strategies. Models can evaluate different management scenarios on extensive spatiotemporal scales and help identify suitable management strategies. Here, we linked the process-based models APSIM (Agricultural Production Systems sIMulator) for cropland and aDGVM2 (Adaptive Dynamic Global Vegetation Model) for rangeland to investigate the effects of (i) current management practices (minimum input crop–livestock agriculture), (ii) an SI scenario for crop production (with dry-season cropland grazing), and (iii) a scenario with separated rangeland and cropland management (livestock exclusion from cropland) in two representative villages of the Limpopo Province, South Africa, for the period from 2000 to 2010. We focused on the following ESFs and ESSs provided by cropland and rangeland: yield and feed provision, soil carbon storage, cropland leaf area index (LAI), and soil water. Village surveys informed the models of farming practices, livelihood conditions, and environmental circumstances. We found that modest SI measures (small fertilizer quantities, weeding, and crop rotation) led to moderate yield increases of between a factor of 1.2 and 1.6 and reduced soil carbon loss, but they sometimes caused increased growing-season water limitation effects. Thus, SI effects strongly varied between years. Dry-season crop residue grazing reduced feed deficits by approximately a factor of 2 compared with the rangeland-only scenario, but it could not fully compensate for the deficits during the dry-to-wet season transition. We expect that targeted deficit irrigation or measures to improve water retention and the soil water holding capacity may enhance SI efforts. Off-field residue feeding during the dry-to-wet season transition could further reduce feed deficits and decrease rangeland grazing pressure during the early growing season. We argue that integrative modeling frameworks are needed to evaluate landscape-level interactions between ecosystem components, evaluate the climate resilience of landscape-level ecosystem services, and identify effective mitigation and adaptation strategies.

Wildfire is the most common disturbance type in boreal forests and can trigger significant changes in forest composition. Waterlogging in peatlands determines the degree of tree cover and the depth of the burnt horizon associated with wildfires. However, interactions between peatland moisture, vegetation composition and flammability, and fire regime in forest and forested peatland in Eurasia remain largely unexplored, despite their huge extent in boreal regions. To address this knowledge gap, we reconstructed the Holocene fire regime, vegetation composition, and peatland hydrology at two sites located in predominantly light taiga (Pinus sylvestris Betula) with interspersed dark taiga communities (Pinus sibirica, Picea obovata, Abies sibirica) in western Siberia in the Tomsk Oblast, Russia. We found marked shifts in past water levels over the Holocene. The probability of fire occurrence and the intensification of fire frequency and severity increased at times of low water table (drier conditions), enhanced fuel dryness, and an intermediate dark-to-light taiga ratio. High water level, and thus wet peat surface conditions, prevented fires from spreading on peatland and surrounding forests. Deciduous trees (i.e. Betula) and Sphagnum were more abundant under wetter peatland conditions, and conifers and denser forests were more prevalent under drier peatland conditions. On a Holocene scale, severe fires were recorded between 7.5 and 4.5 ka with an increased proportion of dark taiga and fire avoiders (Pinus sibirica at Rybnaya and Abies sibirica at Ulukh–Chayakh) in a predominantly light taiga and fire-resister community characterised by Pinus sylvestris and lower local water level. Severe fires also occurred over the last 1.5 kyr and were associated with a declining abundance of dark taiga and fire avoiders, an expansion of fire invaders (Betula), and fluctuating water tables. These findings suggest that frequent, high-severity fires can lead to compositional and structural changes in forests when trees fail to reach reproductive maturity between fire events or where extensive forest gaps limit seed dispersal. This study also shows prolonged periods of synchronous fire activity across the sites, particularly during the early to mid-Holocene, suggesting a regional imprint of centennial- to millennial-scale Holocene climate variability on wildfire activity. Humans may have affected vegetation and fire from the Neolithic; however, increasing human presence in the region, particularly at the Ulukh–Chayakh Mire over the last 4 centuries, drastically enhanced ignitions compared to natural background levels. Frequent warm and dry spells predicted by climate change scenarios for Siberia in the future will enhance peatland drying and may convey a competitive advantage to conifer taxa. However, dry conditions will probably exacerbate the frequency and severity of wildfire, disrupt conifers' successional pathway, and accelerate shifts towards deciduous broadleaf tree cover. Furthermore, climate–disturbance–fire feedbacks will accelerate changes in the carbon balance of boreal peatlands and affect their overall future resilience to climate change.

The Agulhas Current (AC) off the southern tip of Africa is one of the strongest western boundary currents and a crucial choke point of inter-ocean heat and salt exchange between the Indian Ocean and the southern Atlantic Ocean. However, large uncertainties remain concerning the sea surface temperature (SST) and salinity (SSS) variability in the AC region and their driving mechanisms over longer timescales, due to only short observational datasets being available and the highly dynamic nature of the region. Here, we present an annual coral skeletal Sr/Ca composite record paired with an established composite oxygen isotope record from Ifaty and Tulear reefs in southwestern Madagascar to obtain a 334-year (1661–1995) reconstruction of δ18Oseawater changes related to surface salinity variability in the wider Agulhas Current region. Our new annual δ18Oseawater composite record from Ifaty traces surface salinity of the southern Mozambique Channel and AC core region from the SODA reanalysis between 1958 and 1995. δ18Oseawater appears to be mainly driven by large-scale wind forcing in the southern Indian Ocean on interannual to decadal timescales. The δ18Oseawater and SST at Ifaty show characteristic interannual variability of between 2 and 4 years and interdecadal variability of 8 to 16 years, coherent with El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) records. Lagged correlations with the multivariate ENSO index reveals a 1–2-year lag of δ18Oseawater and salinity at Ifaty and the AC region, suggesting that propagation of anomalies by ocean Rossby waves may contribute to salinity changes in the wider southwestern Indian Ocean. The δ18Oseawater and SST reconstructions at Ifaty reveal the highest interannual variability during the Little Ice Age, especially around 1700 CE, which is in agreement with other Indo-Pacific coral studies. Our study demonstrates the huge potential to unlock past interannual and decadal changes in surface ocean hydrology and ocean transport dynamics from coral δ18Oseawater beyond the short instrumental record.

Permafrost is being degraded worldwide due to the change in external forcing caused by climate change. This has also been shown to affect the morphodynamics of active rock glaciers. We studied these changes, depending on the analysis, on nine or eight active rock glaciers, respectively, with different characteristics in multiple epochs between 1953 and 2017 in Kaunertal, Austria. A combination of historical aerial photographs and airborne laser scanning data and their derivatives were used to analyse surface movement and surface elevation change. In general, the studied landforms showed a significant acceleration of varying magnitude in the epoch 1997–2006 and a volume loss to variable degrees throughout the investigation period. Rock glaciers related to glacier forefields showed significantly higher rates of subsidence than talus-connected ones. Besides, we detected two rock glaciers with deviating behaviour and one that showed an inactivation of its terminal part. By analysing meteorological data (temperature, precipitation and snow cover onset and duration), we were able to identify possible links to these external forcing parameters. The catchment-wide survey further revealed that, despite the general trend, timing, magnitude and temporal peaks of morphodynamic changes indicate a slightly different sensitivity, response or response time of individual rock glaciers to fluctuations and changes in external forcing parameters.

South Asian vegetation provides essential ecosystem services to the 1.7 billion inhabitants living in the region. However, biodiversity and ecosystem services are threatened by climate and land-use change. Understanding and assessing how ecosystems respond to simultaneous increases in atmospheric CO2 and future climate change is of vital importance to avoid undesired ecosystem change. Failed reaction to increasing CO2 and climate change will likely have severe consequences for biodiversity and humankind. Here, we used the adaptive dynamic global vegetation model version 2 (aDGVM2) to simulate vegetation dynamics in South Asia under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, and we explored how the presence or absence of CO2 fertilization influences vegetation responses to climate change. Simulated vegetation under both representative concentration pathways (RCPs) without CO2 fertilization effects showed a decrease in tree dominance and biomass, whereas simulations with CO2 fertilization showed an increase in biomass, canopy cover, and tree height and a decrease in biome-specific evapotranspiration by the end of the 21st century. The predicted changes in aboveground biomass and canopy cover triggered transition towards tree-dominated biomes. We found that savanna regions are at high risk of woody encroachment and transitioning into forest. We also found transitions of deciduous forest to evergreen forest in the mountain regions. Vegetation types using C3 photosynthetic pathway were not saturated at current CO2 concentrations, and the model simulated a strong CO2 fertilization effect with the rising CO2. Hence, vegetation in the region has the potential to remain a carbon sink. Projections showed that the bioclimatic envelopes of biomes need adjustments to account for shifts caused by climate change and elevated CO2. The results of our study help to understand the regional climate–vegetation interactions and can support the development of regional strategies to preserve ecosystem services and biodiversity under elevated CO2 and climate change.

The dominant modes of climate variability on interannual timescales in the tropical Indian Ocean are the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Indian Ocean Dipole. El Niño events have occurred more frequently during recent decades, and it has been suggested that an asymmetric ENSO teleconnection (warming during El Niño events is stronger than cooling during La Niña events) caused the pronounced warming of the western Indian Ocean. In this study, we test this hypothesis using coral Sr∕Ca records from the central Indian Ocean (Chagos Archipelago) to reconstruct past sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in time windows from the mid-Little Ice Age (1675–1716) to the present. Three sub-fossil massive Porites corals were dated to the 17–18th century (one coral) and the 19–20th century (two corals). Their records were compared with a published modern coral Sr∕Ca record from the same site. All corals were subsampled at a monthly resolution for Sr∕Ca measurements, which were measured using a simultaneous inductively coupled plasma optical emission spectrometer (ICP-OES). Wavelet coherence analysis shows that interannual variability in the four coral records is driven by ENSO, suggesting that the ENSO–SST teleconnection in the central Indian Ocean has been stationary since the 17th century. To determine the symmetry of El Niño and La Niña events, we compiled composite records of positive and negative ENSO-driven SST anomaly events. We find similar magnitudes of warm and cold anomalies, indicating a symmetric ENSO response in the tropical Indian Ocean. This suggests that ENSO is not the main driver of central Indian Ocean warming.

Various observational estimates indicate growing mass loss at Antarctica's margins as well as heavier precipitation across the continent. Simulated future projections reveal that heavier precipitation, falling on Antarctica, may counteract amplified iceberg discharge and increased basal melting of floating ice shelves driven by a warming ocean. Here, we test how the ansatz (implementation in a mathematical framework) of the precipitation boundary condition shapes Antarctica's sea level contribution in an ensemble of ice sheet simulations. We test two precipitation conditions: we either apply the precipitation anomalies from CMIP5 models directly or scale the precipitation by the air temperature anomalies from the CMIP5 models. In the scaling approach, it is common to use a relative precipitation increment per degree warming as an invariant scaling constant. We use future climate projections from nine CMIP5 models, ranging from strong mitigation efforts to business-as-usual scenarios, to perform simulations from 1850 to 5000. We take advantage of individual climate projections by exploiting their full temporal and spatial structure. The CMIP5 projections beyond 2100 are prolonged with reiterated forcing that includes decadal variability; hence, our study may underestimate ice loss after 2100. In contrast to various former studies that apply an evolving temporal forcing that is spatially averaged across the entire Antarctic Ice Sheet, our simulations consider the spatial structure in the forcing stemming from various climate patterns. This fundamental difference reproduces regions of decreasing precipitation despite general warming. Regardless of the boundary and forcing conditions applied, our ensemble study suggests that some areas, such as the glaciers from the West Antarctic Ice Sheet draining into the Amundsen Sea, will lose ice in the future. In general, the simulated ice sheet thickness grows along the coast, where incoming storms deliver topographically controlled precipitation. In this region, the ice thickness differences are largest between the applied precipitation methods. On average, Antarctica shrinks for all future scenarios if the air temperature anomalies scale the precipitation. In contrast, Antarctica gains mass in our simulations if we apply the simulated precipitation anomalies directly. The analysis reveals that the mean scaling inferred from climate models is larger than the commonly used values deduced from ice cores; moreover, it varies spatially: the highest scaling is across the East Antarctic Ice Sheet, and the lowest scaling is around the Siple Coast, east of the Ross Ice Shelf. The discrepancies in response to both precipitation ansatzes illustrate the principal uncertainty in projections of Antarctica's sea level contribution.

Vegetation responses to changes in environmental drivers can be subject to temporal lags. This implies that vegetation is committed to future changes once environmental drivers stabilize; e.g., changes in physiological processes, structural changes, and changes in vegetation composition and disturbance regimes may happen with substantial delay after a change in forcing has occurred. Understanding the trajectories of such committed changes is important as they affect future carbon storage, vegetation structure, and community composition and therefore need consideration in conservation management. In this study, we investigate whether transient vegetation states can be represented by a time-shifted trajectory of equilibrium vegetation states or whether they are vegetation states without analog in conceivable equilibrium states. We use a dynamic vegetation model, the aDGVM (adaptive Dynamic Global Vegetation Model), to assess deviations between simulated transient and equilibrium vegetation states in Africa between 1970 and 2099 for the RCP4.5 and 8.5 scenarios using regionally downscaled climatology based on the MPI-ESM output for CMIP5. We determined lag times and dissimilarity between simulated equilibrium and transient vegetation states based on the combined difference of nine selected state variables using Euclidean distance as a measure for that difference. We found that transient vegetation states over time increasingly deviated from equilibrium states in both RCP scenarios but that the deviation was more pronounced in RCP8.5 during the second half of the 21st century. Trajectories of transient vegetation change did not follow a “virtual trajectory” of equilibrium states but represented non-analog composite states resulting from multiple lags with respect to vegetation processes and composition. Lag times between transient and most similar equilibrium vegetation states increased over time and were most pronounced in savanna and woodland areas, where disequilibrium in savanna tree cover frequently acted as the main driver of dissimilarities. Fire additionally enhanced lag times and dissimilarity between transient and equilibrium vegetation states due to its restraining effect on vegetation succession. Long lag times can be indicative of high rates of change in environmental drivers, of meta-stability and non-analog vegetation states, and of augmented risk for future tipping points. For long-term planning, conservation managers should therefore strongly focus on areas where such long lag times and high residual dissimilarity between most similar transient and equilibrium vegetation states have been simulated. Particularly in such areas, conservation efforts need to consider that observed vegetation may continue to change substantially after stabilization of external environmental drivers.

Wildfire occurrence is influenced by climate, vegetation and human activities. A key challenge for understanding the risk of fires is quantifying the mediating effect of vegetation on fire regimes. Here, we explore the relative importance of Holocene land cover, land use, dominant functional forest type, and climate dynamics on biomass burning in temperate and boreo-nemoral regions of central and eastern Europe over the past 12 kyr. We used an extensive data set of Holocene pollen and sedimentary charcoal records, in combination with climate simulations and statistical modelling. Biomass burning was highest during the early Holocene and lowest during the mid-Holocene in all three ecoregions (Atlantic, continental and boreo-nemoral) but was more spatially variable over the past 3–4 kyr. Although climate explained a significant variance in biomass burning during the early Holocene, tree cover was consistently the highest predictor of past biomass burning over the past 8 kyr. In temperate forests, biomass burning was high at ∼45 % tree cover and decreased to a minimum at between 60 % and 70 % tree cover. In needleleaf-dominated forests, biomass burning was highest at ∼ 60 %–65 % tree cover and steeply declined at >65 % tree cover. Biomass burning also increased when arable lands and grasslands reached ∼ 15 %–20 %, although this relationship was variable depending on land use practice via ignition sources, fuel type and quantities. Higher tree cover reduced the amount of solar radiation reaching the forest floor and could provide moister, more wind-protected microclimates underneath canopies, thereby decreasing fuel flammability. Tree cover at which biomass burning increased appears to be driven by warmer and drier summer conditions during the early Holocene and by increasing human influence on land cover during the late Holocene. We suggest that long-term fire hazard may be effectively reduced through land cover management, given that land cover has controlled fire regimes under the dynamic climates of the Holocene.

Current rates of climate and atmospheric change are likely higher than during the last millions of years. Even higher rates of change are projected in CMIP5 climate model ensemble runs for some Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios. The speed of ecological processes such as leaf physiology, demography or migration can differ from the speed of changes in environmental conditions. Such mismatches imply lags between the actual vegetation state and the vegetation state expected under prevailing environmental conditions. Here, we used a dynamic vegetation model, the adaptive Dynamic Global Vegetation Model (aDGVM), to study lags between actual and expected vegetation in Africa under a changing atmospheric CO2 mixing ratio. We hypothesized that lag size increases with a more rapidly changing CO2 mixing ratio as opposed to slower changes in CO2 and that disturbance by fire further increases lag size. Our model results confirm these hypotheses, revealing lags between vegetation state and environmental conditions and enhanced lags in fire-driven systems. Biome states, carbon stored in vegetation and tree cover in Africa are most sensitive to changes in CO2 under recent and near-future levels. When averaged across all biomes and simulations with and without fire, times to reach an equilibrium vegetation state increase from approximately 242 years for 200 ppm to 898 years for 1000 ppm. These results have important implications for vegetation modellers and for policy making. Lag effects imply that vegetation will undergo substantial changes in distribution patterns, structure and carbon sequestration even if emissions of fossils fuels and other greenhouse gasses are reduced and the climate system stabilizes. We conclude that modelers need to account for lag effects in models and in data used for model testing. Policy makers need to consider lagged responses and committed changes in the biosphere when developing adaptation and mitigation strategies.

A critical aspect of predicting soil organic carbon (SOC) concentrations is the lack of available soil information; where information on soil characteristics is available, it is usually focused on regions of high agricultural interest. To date, in Chile, a large proportion of the SOC data have been collected in areas of intensive agricultural or forestry use; however, vast areas beyond these forms of land use have few or no soil data available. Here we present a new SOC database for the country, which is the result of an unprecedented national effort under the framework of the Global Soil Partnership. This partnership has helped build the largest database of SOC to date in Chile, named the Chilean Soil Organic Carbon database (CHLSOC), comprising 13 612 data points compiled from numerous sources, including unpublished and difficult-to-access data. The database will allow users to fill spatial gaps where no SOC estimates were publicly available previously. Presented values of SOC range from 6×10-5 % to 83.3 %, reflecting the variety of ecosystems that exist in Chile. The database has the potential to inform and test current models that predict SOC stocks and dynamics at larger spatial scales, thus enabling benefits from the richness of geochemical, topographic and climatic variability in Chile. The database is freely available to registered users at https://doi.org/10.17605/OSF.IO/NMYS3 (Pfeiffer et al., 2019b) under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International Public License.

Objectives. The vagal nerve exerts an essential pathway in controlling the cholinergic anti-inflammatory reflex. Thus, the study is aimed at investigating the acute effect of a noninvasive transcutaneous vagus nerve stimulation on clinical disease activity and systemic levels of inflammation in patients with psoriatic arthritis or ankylosing spondylitis. Methods. Twenty patients with psoriatic arthritis (PsA) and 20 patients with ankylosing spondylitis (AS) were included and stimulated bilaterally with a handheld vagal nerve stimulator for 120 seconds 3 times a day for 5 consecutive days. All patients were in remission. Cardiac vagal tone, clinical scores, CRP, and cytokine levels were assessed. Results. In PsA and AS, decreased heart rate was observed, confirming compliance. Furthermore, in PsA, a clear reduction of clinical disease activity associated with a 20% reduction in CRP was shown. In AS, a reduction in interferon-γ, interleukin- (IL-) 8, and 10 was shown. No side effects were described. Conclusion. This open-label study provides support for an anti-inflammatory effect of transcutaneous vagus nerve stimulation in patients with psoriatic arthritis and ankylosing spondylitis. The modulated immune response and reduced disease activity and CRP-levels raise the fascinating possibility of using neuromodulation as an add-on to existing pharmacological treatments.

The large variety of atmospheric circulation systems affecting the eastern Asian climate is reflected by the complex Asian vegetation distribution. Particularly in the transition zones of these circulation systems, vegetation is supposed to be very sensitive to climate change. Since proxy records are scarce, hitherto a mechanistic understanding of the past spatio-temporal climate–vegetation relationship is lacking. To assess the Holocene vegetation change and to obtain an ensemble of potential mid-Holocene biome distributions for eastern Asia, we forced the diagnostic biome model BIOME4 with climate anomalies of different transient Holocene climate simulations performed in coupled atmosphere–ocean(–vegetation) models. The simulated biome changes are compared with pollen-based biome records for different key regions.In all simulations, substantial biome shifts during the last 6000 years are confined to the high northern latitudes and the monsoon–westerly wind transition zone, but the temporal evolution and amplitude of change strongly depend on the climate forcing. Large parts of the southern tundra are replaced by taiga during the mid-Holocene due to a warmer growing season and the boreal treeline in northern Asia is shifted northward by approx. 4° in the ensemble mean, ranging from 1.5 to 6° in the individual simulations, respectively. This simulated treeline shift is in agreement with pollen-based reconstructions from northern Siberia. The desert fraction in the transition zone is reduced by 21 % during the mid-Holocene compared to pre-industrial due to enhanced precipitation. The desert–steppe margin is shifted westward by 5° (1–9° in the individual simulations). The forest biomes are expanded north-westward by 2°, ranging from 0 to 4° in the single simulations. These results corroborate pollen-based reconstructions indicating an extended forest area in north-central China during the mid-Holocene. According to the model, the forest-to-non-forest and steppe-to-desert changes in the climate transition zones are spatially not uniform and not linear since the mid-Holocene.

The western Indian Ocean has been warming rapidly over recent decades, causing a greater number of extreme climatic events. It is therefore of paramount importance to improve our understanding of links between Indian Ocean sea surface temperature (SST) variability, climate change and sustainability of tropical coral reef ecosystems. Here we present monthly resolved coral Sr ∕ Ca records from two different locations from Rodrigues Island (63° E, 19° S) in the south-central Indian Ocean trade wind belt. We reconstruct SST based on a linear relationship with the Sr ∕ Ca proxy with records starting from 1781 and 1945, respectively. We assess relationships between the observed long-term SST and climate fluctuations related to the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO), the Subtropical Indian Ocean Dipole Mode (SIOD) and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) between 1945 and 2006, respectively. The reproducibility of the Sr ∕ Ca records is assessed as are the potential impacts of diagenesis and corallite orientation on Sr ∕ Ca–SST reconstructions. We calibrate individual robust Sr ∕ Ca records with in situ SST and various gridded SST products. The results show that the SST record from Cabri provides the first Indian Ocean coral proxy time series that records the SST signature of the PDO in the south-central Indian Ocean since 1945. We suggest that additional records from Rodrigues Island can provide excellent records of SST variations in the southern Indian Ocean trade wind belt to unravel teleconnections with the SIOD/ENSO/PDO on longer timescales.

During the Last Interglacial (LIG, ∼130–115 kiloyears (kyr) before present (BP)), the northern high latitudes were characterized by higher temperatures than those of the late Holocene and a lower Greenland Ice Sheet (GIS). However, the impact of a reduced GIS on the global climate has not yet been well constrained. In this study, we quantify the contribution of the GIS to LIG warmth by performing various sensitivity studies based on equilibrium simulations, employing the Community Earth System Models (COSMOS), with a focus on height and extent of the GIS. We present the first study on the effects of a reduction in the GIS on the surface temperature (TS) on a global scale and separate the contribution of astronomical forcing and changes in GIS to LIG warmth. The strong Northern Hemisphere summer warming of approximately 2 °C (with respect to pre-industrial) is mainly caused by increased summer insolation. Reducing the height by ∼ 1300 m and the extent of the GIS does not have a strong influence during summer, leading to an additional global warming of only +0.24 °C compared to the purely insolation-driven LIG. The effect of a reduction in the GIS is, however, strongest during local winter, with up to +5 °C regional warming and with an increase in global average temperature of +0.48 °C. In order to evaluate the performance of our LIG simulations, we additionally compare the simulated TS anomalies with marine and terrestrial proxy-based LIG temperature anomalies derived from three different proxy data compilations. Our model results are in good agreement with proxy records with respect to the warming pattern but underestimate the magnitude of temperature change when compared to reconstructions, suggesting a potential misinterpretation of the proxy records or deficits in our model. However, we are able to partly reduce the mismatch between model and data by additionally taking into account the potential seasonal bias of the proxy record and/or the uncertainties in the dating of the proxy records for the LIG thermal maximum. The seasonal bias and the uncertainty of the timing are estimated from new transient model simulations covering the whole LIG. The model–data comparison improves for proxies that represent annual mean temperatures when the GIS is reduced and when we take the local thermal maximum during the LIG (130–120 kyr BP) into account. For proxy data that represent summer temperatures, changes in the GIS are of minor importance for sea surface temperatures. However, the annual mean and summer temperature change over Greenland in the reduced GIS simulations seems to be overestimated as compared to the local ice core data, which could be related to the interpretation of the recorder system and/or the assumptions of GIS reduction. Thus, the question regarding the real size of the GIS during the LIG has yet to be answered.

The differential cross sections and unpolarized spin-density matrix elements for the reaction γp→pω were measured using the CBELSA/TAPS experiment for initial photon energies ranging from the reaction threshold to 2.5 GeV. These observables were measured from the radiative decay of the ω meson, ω→π0γ. The cross sections cover the full angular range and show the full extent of the t-channel forward rise. The overall shape of the angular distributions in the differential cross sections and unpolarized spin-density matrix elements are in fair agreement with previous data. In addition, for the first time, a beam of linearly-polarized tagged photons in the energy range from 1150 MeV to 1650 MeV was used to extract polarized spin-density matrix elements. These data were included in the Bonn–Gatchina partial wave analysis (PWA). The dominant contribution to ω photoproduction near threshold was found to be the 3/2+ partial wave, which is primarily due to the sub-threshold N(1720)3/2+ resonance. At higher energies, pomeron-exchange was found to dominate whereas π-exchange remained small. These t-channel contributions as well as further contributions from nucleon resonances were necessary to describe the entire dataset: the 1/2−, 3/2−, and 5/2+ partial waves were also found to contribute significantly.

Photoproduction of two neutral pions off the proton is studied using linearly polarized photons, and the polarization observables Is and Ic are measured for the first time. These two observables are unique to multi-meson final states; they characterize correlations between the linear photon polarization and the direction of outgoing single particles in photoproduction of three-body final states. The Is and Ic distributions suggest that, in the 1.8 to 2.0 GeV mass region, the N(1520)3/2−π intermediate state is reached with reaction dynamics consistent with a dominant JP=3/2+ wave. These data are included in the Bonn–Gatchina (BnGa) partial wave analysis which is based on a large variety of data; the analysis confirms a significant contribution from the reaction chain γp→N(1900)3/2+→N(1520)3/2−π0→pπ0π0. Keywords: Baryon spectroscopy, Double meson photoproduction, Polarization observables

The recently proposed global monsoon hypothesis interprets monsoon systems as part of one global-scale atmospheric overturning circulation, implying a connection between the regional monsoon systems and an in-phase behaviour of all northern hemispheric monsoons on annual timescales (Trenberth et al., 2000). Whether this concept can be applied to past climates and variability on longer timescales is still under debate, because the monsoon systems exhibit different regional characteristics such as different seasonality (i.e. onset, peak and withdrawal). To investigate the interconnection of different monsoon systems during the pre-industrial Holocene, five transient global climate model simulations have been analysed with respect to the rainfall trend and variability in different sub-domains of the Afro-Asian monsoon region. Our analysis suggests that on millennial timescales with varying orbital forcing, the monsoons do not behave as a tightly connected global system. According to the models, the Indian and North African monsoons are coupled, showing similar rainfall trend and moderate correlation in centennial rainfall variability in all models. The East Asian monsoon changes independently during the Holocene. The dissimilarities in the seasonality of the monsoon sub-systems lead to a stronger response of the North African and Indian monsoon systems to the Holocene insolation forcing than of the East Asian monsoon and affect the seasonal distribution of Holocene rainfall variations. Within the Indian and North African monsoon domain, precipitation solely changes during the summer months, showing a decreasing Holocene precipitation trend. In the East Asian monsoon region, the precipitation signal is determined by an increasing precipitation trend during spring and a decreasing precipitation change during summer, partly balancing each other. A synthesis of reconstructions and the model results do not reveal an impact of the different seasonality on the timing of the Holocene rainfall optimum in the different sub-monsoon systems. Rather they indicate locally inhomogeneous rainfall changes and show that single palaeo-records should not be used to characterise the rainfall change and monsoon evolution for entire monsoon sub-systems.

The oxidative capacity of past atmospheres is highly uncertain. We present here a new climate–biosphere–chemistry modeling framework to determine oxidant levels in the present and past troposphere. We use the GEOS-Chem chemical transport model driven by meteorological fields from the NASA Goddard Institute of Space Studies (GISS) ModelE, with land cover and fire emissions from dynamic global vegetation models. We present time-slice simulations for the present day, late preindustrial era (AD 1770), and the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM, 19–23 ka), and we test the sensitivity of model results to uncertainty in lightning and fire emissions. We find that most preindustrial and paleo climate simulations yield reduced oxidant levels relative to the present day. Contrary to prior studies, tropospheric mean OH in our ensemble shows little change at the LGM relative to the preindustrial era (0.5 ± 12 %), despite large reductions in methane concentrations. We find a simple linear relationship between tropospheric mean ozone photolysis rates, water vapor, and total emissions of NOx and reactive carbon that explains 72 % of the variability in global mean OH in 11 different simulations across the last glacial–interglacial time interval and the industrial era. Key parameters controlling the tropospheric oxidative capacity over glacial–interglacial periods include overhead stratospheric ozone, tropospheric water vapor, and lightning NOx emissions. Variability in global mean OH since the LGM is insensitive to fire emissions. Our simulations are broadly consistent with ice-core records of Δ17O in sulfate and nitrate at the LGM, and CO, HCHO, and H2O2 in the preindustrial era. Our results imply that the glacial–interglacial changes in atmospheric methane observed in ice cores are predominantly driven by changes in its sources as opposed to its sink with OH.

We compare the ocean temperature evolution of the Holocene as simulated by climate models and reconstructed from marine temperature proxies. We use transient simulations from a coupled atmosphere–ocean general circulation model, as well as an ensemble of time slice simulations from the Paleoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project. The general pattern of sea surface temperature (SST) in the models shows a high-latitude cooling and a low-latitude warming. The proxy dataset comprises a global compilation of marine alkenone- and Mg/Ca-derived SST estimates. Independently of the choice of the climate model, we observe significant mismatches between modelled and estimated SST amplitudes in the trends for the last 6000 yr. Alkenone-based SST records show a similar pattern as the simulated annual mean SSTs, but the simulated SST trends underestimate the alkenone-based SST trends by a factor of two to five. For Mg/Ca, no significant relationship between model simulations and proxy reconstructions can be detected. We test if such discrepancies can be caused by too simplistic interpretations of the proxy data. We explore whether consideration of different growing seasons and depth habitats of the planktonic organisms used for temperature reconstruction could lead to a better agreement of model results with proxy data on a regional scale. The extent to which temporal shifts in growing season or vertical shifts in depth habitat can reduce model–data misfits is determined. We find that invoking shifts in the living season and habitat depth can remove some of the model–data discrepancies in SST trends. Regardless whether such adjustments in the environmental parameters during the Holocene are realistic, they indicate that when modelled temperature trends are set up to allow drastic shifts in the ecological behaviour of planktonic organisms, they do not capture the full range of reconstructed SST trends. Results indicate that modelled and reconstructed temperature trends are to a large degree only qualitatively comparable, thus providing a challenge for the interpretation of proxy data as well as the model sensitivity to orbital forcing.

Virtual Leodium is an interdisciplinary project aiming to develop an archaeological information system based on a city scale model. The first part of the paper describes current project's achievements; the general methodology and the workflow of the project, namely the production and the modelling of archaeological data; the prototype functions of the ad hoc developed archaeological information system. The second part of the paper presents our new Virtual Leodium archaeological information modelling approach, which aims at consider, in a more comprehensive way, the complexity of archaeological information.

Fire is the primary disturbance factor in many terrestrial ecosystems. Wildfire alters vegetation structure and composition, affects carbon storage and biogeochemical cycling, and results in the release of climatically relevant trace gases including CO2, CO, CH4, NOx, and aerosols. One way of assessing the impacts of global wildfire on centennial to multi-millennial timescales is to use process-based fire models linked to dynamic global vegetation models (DGVMs). Here we present an update to the LPJ-DGVM and a new fire module based on SPITFIRE that includes several improvements to the way in which fire occurrence, behaviour, and the effects of fire on vegetation are simulated. The new LPJ-LMfire model includes explicit calculation of natural ignitions, the representation of multi-day burning and coalescence of fires, and the calculation of rates of spread in different vegetation types. We describe a new representation of anthropogenic biomass burning under preindustrial conditions that distinguishes the different relationships between humans and fire among hunter-gatherers, pastoralists, and farmers. We evaluate our model simulations against remote-sensing-based estimates of burned area at regional and global scale. While wildfire in much of the modern world is largely influenced by anthropogenic suppression and ignitions, in those parts of the world where natural fire is still the dominant process (e.g. in remote areas of the boreal forest and subarctic), our results demonstrate a significant improvement in simulated burned area over the original SPITFIRE. The new fire model we present here is particularly suited for the investigation of climate–human–fire relationships on multi-millennial timescales prior to the Industrial Revolution.

The last interglaciation (~130 to 116 ka) is a time period with a strong astronomically induced seasonal forcing of insolation compared to the present. Proxy records indicate a significantly different climate to that of the modern, in particular Arctic summer warming and higher eustatic sea level. Because the forcings are relatively well constrained, it provides an opportunity to test numerical models which are used for future climate prediction. In this paper we compile a set of climate model simulations of the early last interglaciation (130 to 125 ka), encompassing a range of model complexities. We compare the simulations to each other and to a recently published compilation of last interglacial temperature estimates. We show that the annual mean response of the models is rather small, with no clear signal in many regions. However, the seasonal response is more robust, and there is significant agreement amongst models as to the regions of warming vs cooling. However, the quantitative agreement of the model simulations with data is poor, with the models in general underestimating the magnitude of response seen in the proxies. Taking possible seasonal biases in the proxies into account improves the agreement, but only marginally. However, a lack of uncertainty estimates in the data does not allow us to draw firm conclusions. Instead, this paper points to several ways in which both modelling and data could be improved, to allow a more robust model–data comparison.

The Southern Hemisphere Westerly Winds (SWW) have been suggested to exert a critical influence on global climate through the wind-driven upwelling of deep water in the Southern Ocean and the potentially resulting atmospheric CO2 variations. The investigation of the temporal and spatial evolution of the SWW along with forcings and feedbacks remains a significant challenge in climate research. In this study, the evolution of the SWW under orbital forcing from the mid-Holocene (7 kyr BP) to pre-industrial modern times (250 yr BP) is examined with transient experiments using the comprehensive coupled global climate model CCSM3. In addition, a model inter-comparison is carried out using orbitally forced Holocene transient simulations from four other coupled global climate models. Analyses and comparison of the model results suggest that the annual and seasonal mean SWW were subject to an overall strengthening and poleward shifting trend during the course of the mid-to-late Holocene under the influence of orbital forcing, except for the austral spring season, where the SWW exhibited an opposite trend of shifting towards the equator.

This report demonstrates external power conversion efficiencies of 2% under 100 mW/cm2 simulated AM1.5 illumination for organic thin-film photovoltaic cells using a phthalocyanine-fullerene (ZnPc/C60) bulk heterojunction as an active layer, embedded into a p-i-n type architecture with doped wide-gap charge transport layers. For an optically optimized device, we found internal quantum efficiency (IQE) of above 80% under short circuit conditions. Such optically thin cells with high internal quantum efficiency are an important step towards high efficiency tandem cells. The p-i-n architecture allows for the design of solar cells with high internal quantum efficiency where only the photoactive region absorbs visible light and recombination losses at contacts are avoided. The I-V characteristics, power conversion efficiencies, the dependence of short circuit current on incident white light intensity, incident photon to collected electron efficiency (IPCE) and absorption spectra of the active layer system are discussed.