Search

There have been increasing losses from freshwater flooding associated with United States (US) landfalling hurricanes in recent years. This study analyses the relationship between sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTA), wind and translation speed and North Atlantic tropical cyclone precipitation (TCP) for the period 1998-2017. Based on our statistical analysis of observation data, for a 1 °C SST increase in the main development region (MDR), there is a 6% increase (not statistically significant) in the TCP rate (mmhr−1) over the Atlantic, which rises to over 40% over land (US states) and appears linked not only to the Clausius-Clapeyron relationship but also to the increase in tropical cyclone (TC) intensity associated with increasing SSTA. Total annual TCP is significantly correlated with the SST in the MDR. Over the Atlantic there is an increase of 116% and over land there is an increase of 140% in total TCP for a 1 °C rise in SST in the MDR. Again, this is linked to the increase in windspeed and the number of TC tracks which also rises with positive SSTAs in the MDR. Our analysis of landfalling TC tracks for nine US states provides a systematic review and highlights how TCP varies by US state. The highest number of landfalls per year are found in Florida, North Carolina and Texas. The median tropical cyclone translation speed is 20.3kmhr−1, although this falls to 16.5 kmhr−1 over land and there is a latitudinal dependence on translation speed. Overall, we find a different TCP response to rising SST over the ocean and land, with the response over land over four times more than the Clausius-Clapeyron rate. The links between SSTA in the MDR and both TCP rate and annual total TCP provide useful insights for seasonal to decadal US flood prediction from TCs.

Global Climate is one chapter from the State of the Climate in 2019 annual report and is avail- able from https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-20-0104.1 Compiled by NOAA’s National Centers for Environmental Information, State of the Climate in 2019 is based on contributions from scien- tists from around the world. It provides a detailed update on global climate indicators, notable weather events, and other data collected by environmental monitoring stations and instru- ments located on land, water, ice, and in space. The full report is available from https://doi.org/10.1175/2020BAMSStateoftheClimate.1.

This study describes the intra- to interannual variability of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) and the relative dynamical contributions to the total variability in an eddy-resolving 1/12° resolution ocean model. Based on a 53-yr-long hindcast and two 4-yr-long ensembles, we assess the total AMOC variability as well as the variability arising from small differences in the ocean initial state that rapidly imprints on the mesoscale eddy fields and subsequently on large-scale features. This initial-condition-dependent variability will henceforth be referred to as “chaotic” variability. We find that intra-annual AMOC fluctuations are mainly driven by the atmospheric forcing, with the chaotic variability fraction never exceeding 26% of the total variance in the whole meridional Atlantic domain. To understand the nature of the chaotic variability we decompose the AMOC (into its Ekman, geostrophic, barotropic, and residual components). The barotropic and geostrophic AMOC contributions exhibit strong, partly compensating fluctuations, which are linked to chaotic spatial variations of currents over topography. In the North Atlantic, the largest chaotic divergence of ensemble members is found around 24°, 38°, and 64°N. At 26.5°N, where the AMOC is monitored by the RAPID–MOCHA array, the chaotic fraction of the AMOC variability is 10%. This fraction is slightly overestimated with the reconstruction methodology as used in the observations (∼15%). This higher fraction of chaotic variability is due to the barotropic contribution not being completely captured by the monitoring system. We look at the strong AMOC decline observed in 2009/10 and find that the ensemble spread (our measure for chaotic variability) was not particularly large during this event. Significance Statement The ocean is characterized by ubiquitous swirls (eddies) with diameters ranging from more than 100 km (low latitudes) to a few tens of kilometers (high latitudes). There is limited predictability of the timing and location of such eddies. They introduce unpredictable (“chaotic”) variability, which affects the ocean circulation on a wide range of spatial and temporal scales. Any observations of ocean currents contain a fraction of chaotic variability. However, it is, in general, not possible to quantify this chaotic variability from observations. Here we use a set of simulations performed with a state-of-the-art ocean computer model to estimate the fraction of chaotic variability in the amount of warm northward flowing near-surface seawater that delivers large amounts of heat to the North Atlantic, known to scientists as the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC). We find that about 10%–25% of the AMOC variance is likely to be chaotic.

Objective Electronic cigarettes have given rise to a new, largely unregulated market within the smoking industry. While generally supposed to be less harmful than traditional tobacco smoke, awareness of the biological effects of electronic cigarette liquid is still scarce. Our objective was to determine the impact of electronic cigarette flavoring and nicotine on gingival squamous cell carcinoma invasion, RAGE expression, and the elaboration of pro‐inflammatory molecules. Methods and Materials Gingival and tongue squamous cell carcinoma cells were exposed to Red Hot or Green Apple flavored electronic cigarette flavoring with or without nicotine. Immunofluorescence determined RAGE expression. Real‐time cellular invasion was assessed using a RTCA DP instrument. Culture medium was assayed for cytokine secretion. Results Compared to controls we observed: increased cell invasion in gingival cells with Red Hot electronic cigarette flavoring and decreased cell invasion with Green Apple; decreased cell invasion in tongue cells treated with Red Hot electronic cigarette flavoring and no differences in invasion with Green Apple; flavor and nicotine dependent increases in RAGE expression; and differential expression of IL‐1α, IL‐8, and MMP‐13. Conclusion We conclude that electronic cigarette flavoring and nicotine orchestrate differential regulation of oral squamous cell carcinoma (OSCC) cell invasion and inflammatory effects. This study provides an important initial step in dissecting RAGE‐mediated mechanisms of cancerous invasion and molecular avenues employed by OSCC.

Coastal floods, driven by extreme sea levels, are one of the most dangerous natural hazards. The people at highest risk are those living in low-lying coastal areas exposed to tropical-cyclone-forced storm surges. Here we apply a novel modelling framework to estimate past and/or present and future storm-surge-level and extreme-sea-level probabilities along the coastlines of southern China, Vietnam, Cambodia, Thailand, and Malaysia. A regional hydrodynamic model is configured to simulate 10 000 years of synthetic tropical cyclone activity, representative of a past/present (1980–2017) and high-emission-scenario future (2015–2050) period. Results show that extreme storm surges, and therefore total water levels, will increase substantially in the coming decades, driven by an increase in the frequency of intense tropical cyclones. Storm surges along the southern Chinese and northern and southern Vietnamese coastlines increase by up to 1 m, significantly larger than expected changes in mean sea-level rise over the same period. The length of coastline that is presently exposed to storm surge levels of 2.5 m or greater will more than double by 2050. Sections of Cambodian, Thai, and Malaysian coastlines are projected to experience storm surges (at higher return periods) in the future, not previously seen, due to a southward shift in tropical cyclone tracks. Given these findings, coastal flood management and adaptation in these areas should be reviewed for their resilience against future extreme sea levels.

It is shown that the inclusion of glycerol in single-particle cryoEM buffers does not preclude high-resolution structure determination, as demonstrated by an ∼2.3 Å resolution reconstruction of mouse apoferritin (∼500 kDa) and an ∼3.3 Å resolution reconstruction of rabbit muscle aldolase (∼160 kDa) in the presence of 20%(v/v) glycerol., Buffer-composition and sample-preparation guidelines for cryo-electron microscopy are geared towards maximizing imaging contrast and reducing electron-beam-induced motion. These pursuits often involve the minimization or the complete removal of additives that are commonly used to facilitate proper protein folding and minimize aggregation. Among these admonished additives is glycerol, a widely used osmolyte that aids protein stability. In this work, it is shown that the inclusion of glycerol does not preclude high-resolution structure determination by cryoEM, as demonstrated by an ∼2.3 Å resolution reconstruction of mouse apoferritin (∼500 kDa) and an ∼3.3 Å resolution reconstruction of rabbit muscle aldolase (∼160 kDa) in the presence of 20%(v/v) glycerol. While it was found that generating thin ice that is amenable to high-resolution imaging requires long blot times, the addition of glycerol did not result in increased beam-induced motion or an inability to pick particles. Overall, these findings indicate that glycerol should not be discounted as a cryoEM sample-buffer additive, particularly for large, fragile complexes that are prone to disassembly or aggregation upon its removal.

Buffer composition and sample preparation guidelines for cryo-electron microscopy are geared toward maximizing imaging contrast and reducing electron beam-induced motion. These pursuits often involve the minimization or complete removal of additives that are commonly used to facilitate proper protein folding and minimize aggregation. Among these admonished additives is glycerol, a widely used osmolyte that aids protein stability. In this work, we show that inclusion of glycerol does not preclude high-resolution structure determination by cryoEM, as demonstrated by a ∼2.3 Å reconstruction of mouse apoferritin (∼500 kDa) and a ∼3.3 Å reconstruction of rabbit muscle aldolase (∼160 kDa) in presence of 20% v/v glycerol. While we found that generating thin ice that is amenable for high-resolution imaging requires long blot times, the addition of glycerol did not result in increased beam-induced motion nor an inability to pick particles. Overall, our findings indicate glycerol should not be discounted as a cryoEM sample buffer additive, particularly for large, fragile complexes that are prone to disassembly or aggregation upon its removal.

Background Gestational diabetes mellitus (GDM) is associated with important factors that influence fetal development. Sphingolipids are known to be associated with the development of diabetes. Our objective was to examine ceramide, a key sphingolipid, hyperosmolarity, and apoptosis in placentas from GDM patients treated with insulin or diet. Methods Ceramide levels were assessed in placental tissues using immunohistochemistry. Immunoblot was performed to quantify serine palmitoyltransferase (SPT), the rate-limiting enzyme in ceramide biosynthesis, NFAT5, SMIT, AR, caspase 3 and the X-linked inhibitor of apoptosis. Trophoblast cells were treated with insulin or ceramide and assessments for mitochondrial respiration, caspase 3 and XIAP were also performed. Results Immunohistochemistry showed increased ceramides in the placental villous trophoblasts of the insulin-treated GDM patients. Nuclear SPT was upregulated only in the insulin-treated GDM placenta when compared to controls. Nuclear NFAT5 was also increased in the GDM placenta. Active caspase 3 was elevated in placentas from both insulin- and diet-treated GDM patients. Mitochondrial respiration was decreased in trophoblasts treated with ceramide. Active caspase was not changed while XIAP protein was increased in trophoblasts treated with ceramide. Conclusions Our findings confirm the presence of ceramide in the human placenta of control and GDM patients. Furthermore, we conclude that ceramide is increased in the placental trophoblast during insulin treatment and that its upregulation correlates with elevated NFAT5, SMIT, increased apoptosis and decreased trophoblast mitochondrial respiration.

Rain-gauge datasets indicate strong increases in both annual mean and extreme precipitation over large parts of the Mainland Southeast Asia (MSEA) including Vietnam and the northwestern part of the peninsula over the last 40 years. Increasing precipitation is associated with increased monsoon intensity in southeast Asia and a northward shift of the monsoon activity centre towards MSEA. Warming-driven evaporation increases over the three main oceanic moisture sources - the Arabian Sea, the Bay of Bengal, and the South China Sea- may partially explain increasing precipitation in large parts of MSEA. Changes in the patterns of the two main modes of natural variability in the tropical Indian Ocean – the Indian Ocean Basin Mode (IOBM) and the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) – contribute to surface warming in these oceanic moisture source regions supplying precipitation to MSEA. Climate model projections show robust wide-spread trends in wet season precipitation with increasing frequency and intensity of extreme precipitation events throughout MSEA over the 21st century. Similar to observations, the projected precipitation trends are associated with strong warming-driven increases in evaporation in all major oceanic moisture sources supplying precipitation to MSEA.

We investigate tropical cyclone (TC) activity and intensity within a 100 km radius of Bermuda between 1955 and 2019. The results show a more easterly genesis over time and significant increasing trends in TC intensity (maximum wind speed (Vmax)) with a decadal Vmax median value increase of 30 kts from 33 to 63 kts (r = 0.94, p = 0.02), together with significant increasing August, September, October sea surface temperature (SST) of 1.1 °C (0.17 °C per decade) r = 0.4 (p < 0.01) and increasing average ocean temperature between 0.5 °C and 0.7 °C (0.08 °C–0.1 °C per decade) r = 0.3(p < 0.01) in the depth range 0–300 m. The strongest correlation is found between TC intensity and ocean temperature averaged through the top 50 m ocean layer ( T 50 m ‾ ) r = 0.37 (p < 0.01). We show how TC potential intensity (PI) estimates are closer to actual intensity by using T 50 m ‾ as opposed to SST using the Hydrostation S time-series. We modify the widely used SST PI index by using T 50 m ‾ to provide a closer estimate of the observed minimum sea level pressure (MSLP), and associated Vmax than by using SST, creating a T 50 m ‾ PI ( T 50 m ‾ _PI) index. The average MSLP difference is reduced by 12 mb and proportional (r = 0.74, p < 0.01) to the SST/ T 50 m ‾ temperature difference. We also suggest the index could be used over a wider area of the subtropical/tropical Atlantic where there is a shallow mixed layer depth.

Large-amplitude [±100 Sv (1 Sv ≡ 106 m3 s−1)], high-frequency oscillations in the Pacific Ocean’s meridional overturning circulation within 10° of the equator have been found in integrations of the NEMO ocean general circulation model. Part I of this paper showed that these oscillations are dominated by two bands of frequencies with periods close to 4 and 10 days and that they are driven by the winds within about 10° of the equator. This part shows that the oscillations can be well simulated by small-amplitude, wind-driven motions on a horizontally uniform, stably stratified state of rest. Its main novelty is that, by focusing on the zonally integrated linearized equations, it presents solutions for the motions in a basin with sloping side boundaries. The solutions are found using vertical normal modes and equatorial meridional modes representing Yanai and inertia–gravity waves. Simulations of 16-day-long segments of the time series for the Pacific of each of the first three meridional and vertical modes (nine modes in all) capture between 85% and 95% of the variance of matching time series segments diagnosed from the NEMO integrations. The best agreement is obtained by driving the solutions with the full wind forcing and the full pressure forces on the bathymetry. Similar results are obtained for the corresponding modes in the Atlantic and Indian Oceans. Slower variations in the same meridional and vertical modes of the MOC are also shown to be well simulated by a quasi-stationary solution driven by zonal wind and pressure forces.

Osteoarthritis (OA), formerly understood to be a result of passive wear, is now known to be associated with chronic inflammation. Cigarette smoking promotes systemic inflammation and has been implicated in increased joint OA incidence in some studies, though the recent observational data on the association are contradictory. We hypothesize that second-hand smoke (SHS) treatment will increase the incidence of OA in a mouse model that has been subjected to a surgical destabilization of the medial meniscus (DMM). To test this hypothesis, we applied either SHS treatment or room air (RA) to mice for 28 days post-DMM surgery. Histopathology findings indicated that the knees of SHS mice exhibited more severe OA than their control counterparts. Increased expression of matrix metalloprotease-13 (MMP-13), an important extracellular protease known to degrade articular cartilage, and nuclear factor kappa-light-chain-enhancer of activated B cells (NF-κB), an intracellular effector of inflammatory pathways, were observed in the SHS group. These findings provide greater understanding and evidence for a detrimental role of cigarette smoke on OA progression and systemic inflammation.

Observational rain gauge/satellite and reanalysis datasets since the 1950s are evaluated for trends in mean and extreme rainfall over Mainland Southeast Asia (MSEA). Rain gauge data indicate strong increases exceeding 50% in both annual mean precipitation and various extreme precipitation indices over Vietnam and the northwestern part of the peninsula since 1979. Increasing precipitation in MSEA is associated with increased monsoon intensity in southeast Asia and a northward shift of the monsoon activity centre towards MSEA over 1979-2018. Re-analysis data reveal warming-driven increases in evaporation over the seas adjacent to MSEA, including the main oceanic source regions feeding precipitation over the peninsula - the Arabian Sea, the Bay of Bengal, and the South China Sea. Furthermore, moisture budget analysis based on the ERA5 re-analysis also showed increasing oceanic moisture transport along the typical winter and summer moisture pathways towards the MSEA. However, the majority of the increased moisture from these oceanic sources ends up as summer precipitation over the oceanic regions adjacent to the MSEA. In contrast, the ERA5 data do reveal pronounced increases in winter precipitation over the MSEA, in accordance with rain-gauge data, that are associated with increased transport of moisture that originated from the western tropical Pacific and the South China Sea. Long-term amplification of the regional hydrological cycle is further investigated, through analysis of CMIP5 coupled climate models in historical and RCP4.5/8.5 21st century scenario simulations. The CMIP5 ensemble mean shows robust wide-spread trends in wet season precipitation with increasing frequency and intensity of extreme precipitation events over the MSEA, following strong increases in evaporation in the oceanic moisture sources.

FORTE 2.0 is an intermediate-resolution coupled atmosphere–ocean general circulation model (AOGCM) consisting of the Intermediate General Circulation Model 4 (IGCM4), a T42 spectral atmosphere with 35σ layers, coupled to Modular Ocean Model – Array (MOMA), a 2∘ × 2∘ ocean with 15 z-layer depth levels. Sea ice is represented by a simple flux barrier. Both the atmosphere and ocean components are coded in Fortran. It is capable of producing a stable climate for long integrations without the need for flux adjustments. One flexibility afforded by the IGCM4 atmosphere is the ability to configure the atmosphere with either 35σ layers (troposphere and stratosphere) or 20σ layers (troposphere only). This enables experimental designs for exploring the roles of the troposphere and stratosphere, and the faster integration of the 20σ layer configuration enables longer duration studies on modest hardware. A description of FORTE 2.0 is given, followed by the analysis of two 2000-year control integrations, one using the 35σ configuration of IGCM4 and one using the 20σ configuration.

The Subpolar North Atlantic (SPNA) is a region with prominent decadal variability that has experienced remarkable warming and cooling trends in the last few decades. These observed trends have been preceded by slow-paced increases and decreases in the Labrador Sea density (LSD), which are thought to be a precursor of large scale ocean circulation changes. This article analyses the inter-relationships between the LSD and the wider North Atlantic across an ensemble of coupled climate model simulations. In particular, it analyses the link between subsurface density and the deep boundary density, the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), the Subpolar Gyre (SPG) circulation, and the upper ocean temperature in the eastern SPNA. All simulations exhibit considerable multidecadal variability in the LSD and the ocean circulation indices, which are found to be interrelated. LSD is strongly linked with the strength of subpolar AMOC and gyre circulation, and is also linked with the subtropical AMOC, although the strength of this relationship is model dependent. The connectivity of LSD with the subtropics is found to be sensitive to different model features, including: the mean density stratification in the Labrador Sea; the strength and depth of the AMOC; and the depth at which the LSD propagates southward along the western boundary. Several of these quantities can also be computed from observations, and comparison with these observation-based quantities suggests that models representing a weaker link with the subtropical AMOC may be more realistic. This would imply that RAPID AMOC measurements might not be adequate to represent decadal to multidecadal changes in the subpolar overturning circulation.

For simulations intended to study the influence of anthropogenic forcing on climate, temporal stability of the Earth's natural heat, freshwater, and biogeochemical budgets is critical. Achieving such coupled model equilibration is scientifically and computationally challenging. We describe the protocol used to spin‐up the UK Earth system model (UKESM1) with respect to preindustrial forcing for use in the sixth Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6). Due to the high computational cost of UKESM1's atmospheric model, especially when running with interactive full chemistry and aerosols, spin‐up primarily used parallel configurations using only ocean/land components. For the ocean, the resulting spin‐up permitted the carbon and heat contents of the ocean's full volume to approach equilibrium over 5,000 years. On land, a spin‐up of 1,000 years brought UKESM1's dynamic vegetation and soil carbon reservoirs toward near‐equilibrium. The end‐states of these parallel ocean‐ and land‐only phases then initialized a multicentennial period of spin‐up with the full Earth system model, prior to this simulation continuing as the UKESM1 CMIP6 preindustrial control (piControl). The realism of the fully coupled spin‐up was assessed for a range of ocean and land properties, as was the degree of equilibration for key variables. Lessons drawn include the importance of consistent interface physics across ocean‐ and land‐only models and the coupled (parent) model, the extreme simulation duration required to approach equilibration targets, and the occurrence of significant regional land carbon drifts despite global‐scale equilibration. Overall, the UKESM1 spin‐up underscores the expense involved and argues in favor of future development of more efficient spin‐up techniques.

International audience; The Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) represents the zonally integrated stream function of meridional volume transport in the Atlantic Basin. The AMOC plays an important role in transporting heat meridionally in the climate system. Observations suggest a heat transport by the AMOC of 1.3 PW at 26°N-a latitude which is close to where the Atlantic northward heat transport is thought to reach its maximum. This shapes the climate of the North Atlantic region as we know it today. In recent years there has been significant progress both in our ability to observe the AMOC in nature and to simulate it in numerical models. Most previous modeling investigations of the AMOC and its impact on climate have relied on models with horizontal resolution that does not resolve ocean mesoscale eddies and the dynamics of the Gulf Stream/North Atlantic Current system. As a result of recent increases in computing power, models are now being run that are able to represent mesoscale ocean dynamics and the circulation features that rely on them. The aim of this review is to describe new insights into the AMOC provided by high-resolution models. Furthermore, we will describe how high-resolution model simulations can help resolve outstanding challenges in our understanding of the AMOC.

The Alpine region recently experienced several dry summers with important and adverse impacts on economy, society and ecology. Here, we analyse drought indicators, evapotranspiration and meteorological data from point observations, reanalyses and regional climate model data to assess trends and drivers of summer drought in Switzerland in the period 1981-2020. The drought indicators from station observations and ERA5-Land and ERA5 reanalyses show a tendency towards drier summer half-years (climatic water balance: -39 mm decade-1, 0-1 m integrated soil water content: -5 to -7 mm decade-1) with a drying in most months from March to October. Both, increasing evapotranspiration (potential evapotranspiration: +21 mm decade-1 or +7% K-1 warming; actual evapotranspiration: +8 to +15 mm decade-1) and a non-significant precipitation decrease of 17 mm decade-1 are identified as important and roughly equivalent drivers. The reanalyses show considerable differences for soil water and actual evapotranspiration, especially in drought summers. The ERA5 soil is clearly drier than the one in ERA5-Land. ERA5 evapotranspiration is smallest and partly soil moisture-limited in drought years while evapotranspiration in ERA5-Land is highest, still mainly energy-limited and scales well with temperature (+4% K-1 warming). ERA5-Land seems to better match with in situ measurements of soil water and evapotranspiration than ERA5, but considerable differences with in situ measurements remain. Variability and trends of the drought drivers temperature and precipitation are also investigated in the EURO-CORDEX regional climate model ensemble. Most simulations considerably underestimate the recent warming and the ensemble shows a large possible range of precipitation changes with a mean change near zero. The summer precipitation-temperature scaling and the correlation between summer temperature and precipitation on the interannual time scale are mostly overestimated. Our results highlight that the analysis of Central European summer drought evolution and its drivers remains challenging especially with regional climate model data, but considerable uncertainties also exist in reanalyses., Environmental Research Communications, 4 (2), ISSN:2515-7620

Intrauterine growth restriction (IUGR) is a disease affecting 10% of all pregnancies. IUGR is associated with maternal, fetal, or placental abnormalities. Studies investigating the effects of secondhand smoke (SHS) exposure and IUGR are limited. The receptor for advanced glycation end-products (RAGE) is a pro-inflammatory transmembrane receptor increased by SHS in the placenta. We tested the hypothesis that inhibition of RAGE during SHS exposure protects from smoke-induced IUGR. C57BL/6 mice were exposed to SHS or SHS + semi-synthetic glycosaminoglycan ethers (SAGEs) known to inhibit RAGE signaling. Trophoblast cells were treated with cigarette smoke extract (CSE) with or without SAGEs in order to address the effects of RAGE inhibition during trophoblast invasion in vitro. SHS-treated mice demonstrated a significant reduction in fetal weight (7.35-fold, P ≤ 0.0001) and placental weight (1.13-fold, P ≤ 0.0001) compared with controls. Mice co-treated with SHS and SAGEs were protected from SHS-induced fetal weights decreases. SHS treatment of C57BL/6 mice activated placental extracellular signal-regulated kinase (ERK) (3.0-fold, P ≤ 0.05), JNK (2.4-fold, P ≤ 0.05) and p38 (2.1-fold, P ≤ 0.05) and the expression of inflammatory mediators including TNF-α (1.34-fold, P ≤ 0.05) and IL-1β (1.03-fold, P ≤ 0.05). SHS-mediated activation of these molecules was reduced to basal levels when SAGE was co-administered. Invasion of trophoblast cells decreased 92% (P

Tides are a key component in coastal extreme water levels. Possible changes in the tides caused by mean sea-level rise (SLR) are therefore of importance in the analysis of coastal flooding, as well as many other applications. We investigate the effect of future SLR on the tides globally using a fully global forward tidal model: OTISmpi. Statistical comparisons of the modelled and observed tidal solutions demonstrate the skill of the refined model setup with no reliance on data assimilation. We simulate the response of the four primary tidal constituents to various SLR scenarios. Particular attention is paid to future changes at the largest 136 coastal cities, where changes in water level would have the greatest impact.Spatially uniform SLR scenarios ranging from 0.5 to 10 m with fixed coastlines show that the tidal amplitudes in shelf seas globally respond strongly to SLR with spatially coherent areas of increase and decrease. Changes in the M2 and S2 constituents occur globally in most shelf seas, whereas changes in K1 and O1 are confined to Asian shelves. With higher SLR tidal changes are often not proportional to the SLR imposed and larger portions of mean high water (MHW) changes are above proportional. Changes in MHW exceed ±10% of the SLR at ~10% of coastal cities. SLR scenarios allowing for coastal recession tend increasingly to result in a reduction in tidal range. The fact that the fixed and recession shoreline scenarios result mainly in changes of opposing sign is explained by the effect of the perturbations on the natural period of oscillation of the basin. Our results suggest that coastal management strategies could influence the sign of the tidal amplitude change. The effect of a spatially varying SLR, in this case fingerprints of the initial elastic response to ice mass loss, modestly alters the tidal response with the largest differences at high latitudes.

Aim and Purpose: Tobacco exposure is one of the top three global health risks leading to the development of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD). Although there is extensive research into t...

During the summer of 2015, central Europe experienced a major heatwave that was preceded by anomalously cold sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the northern North Atlantic. Recent observation-based studies found a correlation between North Atlantic SST in spring and European summer temperatures, suggesting potential for predictability. Here we show, by using a high-resolution climate model, that ocean temperature anomalies, in combination with matching atmospheric and sea-ice initial conditions were key to the development of the 2015 European heatwave. In a series of 30-member ensemble simulations we test different combinations of ocean temperature and salinity initial states versus non-initialised climatology, mediated in both ensembles by different atmospheric/sea-ice initial conditions, using a non-standard initialisation method without data-assimilation. With the best combination of the initial ocean, and matching atmosphere/sea-ice initial conditions, the ensemble mean temperature response over central Europe in this set-up equals 60% of the observed anomaly, with 6 out of 30 ensemble-members showing similar, or even larger surface air temperature anomalies than observed.

Satellite observations and output from a high-resolution ocean model are used to investigate how the Loop Current in the Gulf of Mexico affects the Gulf Stream transport through the Florida Straits. We find that the expansion (contraction) of the Loop Current leads to lower (higher) transports through the Straits of Florida. The associated surface velocity anomalies are coherent from the southwestern tip of Florida to Cape Hatteras. A simple continuity-based argument can be used to explain the link between the Loop Current and the downstream Gulf Stream transport: as the Loop Current lengthens (shortens) its path in the Gulf of Mexico, the flow out of the Gulf decreases (increases). Anomalies in the surface velocity field are first seen to the southwest of Florida and within 4 weeks propagate through the Florida Straits up to Cape Hatteras and into the Gulf Stream Extension. In both the observations and the model this propagation can be seen as pulses in the surface velocities. We estimate that the Loop Current variability can be linked to a variability of several Sverdrups (1Sv = 106 m3 s−1) through the Florida Straits. The exact timing of the Loop Current variability is largely unpredictable beyond a few weeks and its variability is therefore likely a major contributor to the chaotic/intrinsic variability of the Gulf Stream. However, the time lag between the Loop Current and the flow downstream of the Gulf of Mexico means that if a lengthening/shortening of the Loop Current is observed this introduces some predictability in the downstream flow for a few weeks.

Preeclampsia (PE) is a complicated obstetric complication characterized by increased blood pressure, decreased trophoblast invasion, and inflammation. The growth arrest-specific 6 (Gas6) protein is known to induce dynamic cellular responses and is elevated in PE. Gas6 binds to the AXL tyrosine kinase receptor and AXL-mediated signaling is implicated in proliferation and migration observed in several tissues. Our laboratory utilized Gas6 to induce preeclamptic-like conditions in pregnant rats. Our objective was to determine the role of Gas6/AXL signaling as a possible model of PE. Briefly, pregnant rats were divided into three groups that received daily intraperitoneal injections (from gestational day 7.5 to 17.5) of phosphate buffered saline (PBS), Gas6, or Gas6 + R428 (an AXL inhibitor administered from gestational day 13.5 to 17.5). Animals dispensed Gas6 experienced elevated blood pressure, increased proteinuria, augmented caspase-3-mediated placental apoptosis, and diminished trophoblast invasion. Gas6 also enhanced expression of several PE-related genes and a number of inflammatory mediators. Gas6 further enhanced placental oxidative stress and impaired mitochondrial respiration. Each of these PE-related characteristics was ameliorated in dams and/or their placentae when AXL inhibition by R428 occurred in tandem with Gas6 treatment. We conclude that Gas6 signaling is capable of inducing PE and that inhibition of AXL prevents disease progression in pregnant rats. These results provide insight into pathways associated with PE that could be useful in the clarification of potential therapeutic approaches.

A high-resolution coupled ocean atmosphere model is used to study the effects of seasonal re-emergence of North Atlantic subsurface ocean temperature anomalies on northern hemisphere winter climate. A 50-member control ensemble is integrated from 1 September 2007 to 28 February 2008 and compared with a parallel ensemble with perturbed ocean initial conditions. The perturbation consists of a density-compensated subsurface Atlantic temperature anomaly corresponding to the observed subsurface temperature anomaly for September 2010. The experiment is repeated for two atmosphere horizontal resolutions (~ 60 km and ~ 25 km) in order to determine whether the sensitivity of the atmosphere to re-emerging temperature anomalies is dependent on resolution. A wide range of re-emergence behavior is found within the perturbed ensembles. While the observations seem to indicate that most of the re-emergence is occurring in November, most members of the ensemble show re-emergence occurring later in the winter. However, when re-emergence does occur it is preceded by an atmospheric pressure pattern that induces a strong flow of cold, dry air over the mid-latitude Atlantic, and enhances oceanic latent heat loss. In response to re-emergence (negative SST anomalies), there is reduced latent heat loss, less atmospheric convection, a reduction in eddy kinetic energy and positive low-level pressure anomalies downstream. Within the framework of a seasonal forecast system the results highlight the atmospheric conditions required for re-emergence to take place and the physical processes that may lead to a significant effect on the winter atmospheric circulation.

Active Atlantic hurricane seasons are favoured by positive precursor sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTA) in the main development region (MDR, 10–20°N, 20–80°W). Here, we identify a different driving mechanism for these anomalies in 2017 (most costly season on record) compared to the recent active 2005 and 2010 seasons. In 2005 and 2010, a weakened Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation is the primary driver of positive SSTA. However, in 2017, reduced wind-driven cold water upwelling and weaker surface net heat loss in the north-eastern MDR were the main drivers. Our results are the first to show that air-sea heat flux and wind stress related processes are important in generating precursor positive SSTAs and that these processes were active pre-determinants of the 2017 season severity. In contrast to other strong seasons, positive SSTA developed later in 2017 (between April and July rather than March) compounding the challenge of predicting Atlantic hurricane season severity., Active Atlantic hurricane seasons are favoured by positive sea surface temperature anomalies. Here the authors identify a new air-sea heat flux driver for these anomalies in the severe 2017 season, while the recent 2005 and 2010 severe seasons were mainly driven by weakened ocean overturning circulation.