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BACKGROUND: Diarrhoeal disease is a leading cause of childhood illness and death globally, and Shigella is a major aetiological contributor for which a vaccine might soon be available. The primary objective of this study was to model the spatiotemporal variation in paediatric Shigella infection and map its predicted prevalence across low-income and middle-income countries (LMICs). METHODS: Individual participant data for Shigella positivity in stool samples were sourced from multiple LMIC-based studies of children aged 59 months or younger. Covariates included household-level and participant-level factors ascertained by study investigators and environmental and hydrometeorological variables extracted from various data products at georeferenced child locations. Multivariate models were fitted and prevalence predictions obtained by syndrome and age stratum. FINDINGS: 20 studies from 23 countries (including locations in Central America and South America, sub-Saharan Africa, and south and southeast Asia) contributed 66 563 sample results. Age, symptom status, and study design contributed most to model performance followed by temperature, wind speed, relative humidity, and soil moisture. Probability of Shigella infection exceeded 20% when both precipitation and soil moisture were above average and had a 43% peak in uncomplicated diarrhoea cases at 33°C temperatures, above which it decreased. Compared with unimproved sanitation, improved sanitation decreased the odds of Shigella infection by 19% (odds ratio [OR]=0·81 [95% CI 0·76-0·86]) and open defecation decreased them by 18% (OR=0·82 [0·76-0·88]). INTERPRETATION: The distribution of Shigella is more sensitive to climatological factors, such as temperature, than previously recognised. Conditions in much of sub-Saharan Africa are particularly propitious for Shigella transmission, although hotspots also occur in South America and Central America, the Ganges-Brahmaputra Delta, and the island of New Guinea. These findings can inform prioritisation of populations for future vaccine trials and campaigns. FUNDING: NASA, National Institutes of Health-The National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, and Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation. publishedVersion

BackgroundDiarrheal disease remains a leading cause of childhood illness and mortality and Shigella is a major etiological contributor for which a vaccine may soon be available. This study aimed to model the spatiotemporal variation in pediatric Shigella infection and map its predicted prevalence across low- and middle-income countries (LMICs).MethodsIndependent participant data on Shigella positivity in stool samples collected from children aged ≤59 months were sourced from multiple LMIC-based studies. Covariates included household- and subject-level factors ascertained by study investigators and environmental and hydrometeorological variables extracted from various data products at georeferenced child locations. Multivariate models were fitted, and prevalence predictions obtained by syndrome and age stratum.Findings20 studies from 23 countries contributed 66,563 sample results. Age, symptom status, and study design contributed most to model performance followed by temperature, wind speed, relative humidity, and soil moisture. Shigella probability exceeded 20% when both precipitation and soil moisture were above average and had a 43% peak in uncomplicated diarrhea cases at 33°C temperatures, above which it decreased. Improved sanitation and open defecation decreased Shigella odds by 19% and 18% respectively compared to unimproved sanitation.InterpretationThe distribution of Shigella is more sensitive to climatological factors like temperature than previously recognized. Conditions in much of sub-Saharan Africa are particularly propitious for Shigella transmission, though hotspots also occur in South and Central America, the Ganges–Brahmaputra Delta, and New Guinea. These findings can inform prioritization of populations for future vaccine trials and campaigns.FundingNASA 16-GEO16-0047; NIH-NIAID 1R03AI151564-01; BMGF OPP1066146.

Objective Improved pneumonia diagnostics are needed, particularly in resource-constrained settings. Lung ultrasound (LUS) is a promising point-of-care imaging technology for diagnosing pneumonia. The objective was to explore LUS patterns associated with paediatric pneumonia. Methods We conducted a prospective, observational study among children aged 2 to 23 months with World Health Organization Integrated Management of Childhood Illness chest-indrawing pneumonia and among children without fast breathing, chest indrawing or fever (no pneumonia cohort) at two district hospitals in Mozambique and Pakistan. We assessed LUS and chest radiograph (CXR) examinations, and viral and bacterial nasopharyngeal carriage, and performed a secondary analysis of LUS patterns. Results LUS demonstrated a range of distinctive patterns that differed between children with and without pneumonia and between children in Mozambique versus Pakistan. The presence of LUS consolidation or interstitial patterns was more common in children with chest-indrawing pneumonia than in those without pneumonia. Consolidations were also more common among those with only bacterial but no viral carriage detected (50.0%) than among those with both (13.0%) and those with only virus detected (8.3%; p=0.03). LUS showed high interrater reliability among expert LUS interpreters for overall determination of pneumonia (κ=0.915), consolidation (κ=0.915) and interstitial patterns (κ=0.901), but interrater reliability between LUS and CXR for detecting consolidations was poor (κ=0.159, Pakistan) to fair (κ=0.453, Mozambique). Discussion Pattern recognition was discordant between LUS and CXR imaging modalities. Further research is needed to define and standardise LUS patterns associated with paediatric pneumonia and to evaluate the potential value of LUS as a reference standard., This study explored distinctive lung ultrasound patterns associated with paediatric community-acquired pneumonia in Mozambique and Pakistan, and found reliable pattern recognition critical to identifying pneumonia https://bit.ly/3eWWvXr

Diarrheal disease, still a major cause of childhood illness, is caused by numerous, diverse infectious microorganisms, which are differentially sensitive to environmental conditions. Enteropathogen‐specific impacts of climate remain underexplored. Results from 15 studies that diagnosed enteropathogens in 64,788 stool samples from 20,760 children in 19 countries were combined. Infection status for 10 common enteropathogens—adenovirus, astrovirus, norovirus, rotavirus, sapovirus, Campylobacter, ETEC, Shigella, Cryptosporidium and Giardia—was matched by date with hydrometeorological variables from a global Earth observation dataset—precipitation and runoff volume, humidity, soil moisture, solar radiation, air pressure, temperature, and wind speed. Models were fitted for each pathogen, accounting for lags, nonlinearity, confounders, and threshold effects. Different variables showed complex, non‐linear associations with infection risk varying in magnitude and direction depending on pathogen species. Rotavirus infection decreased markedly following increasing 7‐day average temperatures—a relative risk of 0.76 (95% confidence interval: 0.69–0.85) above 28°C—while ETEC risk increased by almost half, 1.43 (1.36–1.50), in the 20–35°C range. Risk for all pathogens was highest following soil moistures in the upper range. Humidity was associated with increases in bacterial infections and decreases in most viral infections. Several virus species' risk increased following lower‐than‐average rainfall, while rotavirus and ETEC increased with heavier runoff. Temperature, soil moisture, and humidity are particularly influential parameters across all enteropathogens, likely impacting pathogen survival outside the host. Precipitation and runoff have divergent associations with different enteric viruses. These effects may engender shifts in the relative burden of diarrhea‐causing agents as the global climate changes., Key Points Many pathogens cause diarrhea in children and are affected in different ways by weather conditions like rainfall, temperature, and humidityDiarrhea‐causing bacteria infections increase in warm, humid weather and when soil is moist, though ETEC is sensitive to rainfall extremesHigh humidity decreases prevalence of several viruses, though only rotavirus increases in cold weather and following heavy surface runoff

Diarrheal disease remains a major cause of childhood mortality and morbidity causing poor health and economic outcomes. In low-resource settings, young children are exposed to numerous risk factors for enteric pathogen transmission within their dwellings, though the relative importance of different transmission pathways varies by pathogen species. The objective of this analysis was to model associations between five household-level risk factors&mdash, water, sanitation, flooring, caregiver education, and crowding&mdash, and infection status for endemic enteric pathogens in children in five surveillance studies. Data were combined from 22 sites in which a total of 58,000 stool samples were tested for 16 specific enteropathogens using qPCR. Risk ratios for pathogen- and taxon-specific infection status were modeled using generalized linear models along with hazard ratios for all-cause diarrhea in proportional hazard models, with the five household-level variables as primary exposures adjusting for covariates. Improved drinking water sources conferred a 17% reduction in diarrhea risk, however, the direction of its association with particular pathogens was inconsistent. Improved sanitation was associated with a 9% reduction in diarrhea risk with protective effects across pathogen species and taxa of around 10&ndash, 20% risk reduction. A 9% reduction in diarrhea risk was observed in subjects with covered floors, which were also associated with decreases in risk for zoonotic enteropathogens. Caregiver education and household crowding showed more modest, inconclusive results. Combining data from diverse sites, this analysis quantified associations between five household-level exposures on risk of specific enteric infections, effects which differed by pathogen species but were broadly consistent with hypothesized transmission mechanisms. Such estimates may be used within expanded water, sanitation, and hygiene (WASH) programs to target interventions to the particular pathogen profiles of individual communities and prioritize resources.

Background Globally, 45% of under-five deaths are, directly or indirectly, attributable to malnutrition, most of these deaths are in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs). Children in the first 6 months of life are particularly vulnerable. An estimated 4.7 million infants under the age of 6 months are moderately wasted whereas 3.8 million are severely wasted. Despite an increased risk to a child of a malnourished woman, there are discrepancies in guidance in this area. Methods This is a community-based, open-label multi-arm factorial randomized controlled trial, using parallel assignment with 1:1:1 allocation ratio, in low-income squatter settlements of urban Karachi, Pakistan. In the control group (Control Arm A), women are randomized to standard counseling only; whereas in the first intervention group (Arm BIntervention arm 1), lactating women receive two sachets of balanced energy-protein (BEP) supplementation per day from enrollment till the infant reaches six months of age, in the second intervention group (Arm CIntervention arm 2), lactating women receive same BEP as in intervention Arm B while their babies also receive a single stat dose (20mg/kg orally) of azithromycin at 42 days. The primary outcome is relative length velocity from 0 to 6 months by the limb of allocation. The primary analysis will be Intention-to-treat analysis. Trial registration Registration of the trial is done at ClinicalTrials.gov. NCT03564652, registered on June 21, 2018. Trial registration data is available through https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT03564652