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OBJECTIVE: To identify predictors of flare in a 2-year follow-up study of patients with rheumatoid arthritis (RA) in sustained clinical remission tapering towards withdrawal of biological disease-modifying anti-rheumatic drugs (bDMARDs). METHODS: Sustained clinical remission was defined as Disease Activity Score for 28 joints (DAS28)-C reactive protein (CRP) ≤2.6 without radiographic progression for >1 year. bDMARDs were tapered according to a mandatory clinical guideline to two-thirds of standard dose at baseline, half of dose at week 16 and discontinuation at week 32. Prospective assessments for 2 years included clinical evaluation, conventional radiography, ultrasound and MRI for signs of inflammation and bone changes. Flare was defined as DAS28-CRP ≥2.6 with ∆DAS28-CRP ≥1.2 from baseline. Baseline predictors of flare were assessed by logistic regression analyses. RESULTS: Of 142 included patients, 121 (85%) flared during follow-up of which 86% regained remission within 24 weeks after flare. Patients that flared were more often rheumatoid factor positive, had tried more bDMARDs and had higher baseline ultrasound synovitis sum scores than those not flaring. For patients on standard dose, predictors of flare within 16 weeks after reduction to two-thirds of standard dose were baseline MRI-osteitis (OR 1.16; 95% CI 1.03 to 1.33; p=0.014), gender (female) (OR 6.71; 95% CI 1.68 to 46.12; p=0.005) and disease duration (OR 1.06; 95% CI 1.01 to 1.11; p=0.020). Baseline predictors for flare within 2 years were ultrasound grey scale synovitis sum score (OR 1.19; 95% CI 1.02 to 1.44; p=0.020) and number of previous bDMARDs (OR 4.07; 95% CI 1.35 to 24.72; p=0.007). CONCLUSION: The majority of real-world patients with RA tapering bDMARDs flared during tapering, with the majority regaining remission after stepwise dose increase. Demographic and imaging parameters (MR-osteitis/ultrasound greyscale synovitis) were independent predictors of immediate flare and flare overall

OBJECTIVES: The role of musculoskeletal US (MSUS) in routine care for diagnosing arthritis is not fully elucidated, but US is more sensitive than clinical joint examination for detecting synovitis. Therefore, the use of US may facilitate diagnosis of arthritis. The aim of the study was to assess whether MSUS examination of hands and feet in relation to the first clinical visit had an impact on the time to reach a final diagnosis and the number of clinical follow-up visits needed after first consultation. METHODS: Two cohorts referred to the outpatient arthritis clinic with suspected arthritis were compared with each other, (i) MSUS (October 2017 to June 2018) of hands and feet performed prior to the first clinical visit and (ii) MSUS (November 2016 to June 2017) was performed ad hoc, for the following aspects: time to clinical diagnosis, number of clinical visits needed, and number of US examinations. RESULTS: In total, 163 and 109 patients were included in the MSUS and comparative cohorts, respectively. Adding MSUS to the first clinical visit reduced the time to diagnosis from mean 31 (32.2) days to 12 (17.3) days (P < 0.01). The number of clinical visits needed was reduced from mean 2.8 (1.1) to 2.1 (1.3) (P < 0.01), corresponding to a reduction of 114 visits in the MSUS cohort. A final diagnosis with inflammatory arthritis was found in 76 (47%) of patients in the MSUS cohort vs 29 (27%) in the comparative cohort (P < 0.01). CONCLUSION: In patients referred for suspected arthritis, routine MSUS in relation to the first clinical visit significantly reduces time to diagnosis and number of clinical visits needed to reach a final diagnosis.

Objective: To assess the ability of ultrasound to predict successful tapering and successful discontinuation of biological DMARDs (bDMARDs) at the 2-year follow-up in RA patients in sustained remission. Methods: Patients in sustained remission (DAS28-CRP ≤ 2.6) and with no radiographic progression the previous year tapered bDMARDs according to a standardized regime. A total of 119 of these patients were included in this ultrasound substudy. At baseline, clinical assessment, MRI, X-ray and ultrasound of 24 joints were performed. Ultrasound-detected synovitis was defined and scored 0-3 using the OMERACT scoring system at the joint level for both grey-scale and Doppler activity. Sum scores for each ultrasound modality were calculated for 24 joints at the patient level. The final state of treatment was assessed after 2 years. The predictive value of ultrasound measures for successful tapering and discontinuation at the 2-year follow-up was assessed via logistic regression analyses. Results: Negative IgM-RF [odds ratio (OR) = 0.29, 95% CI: 0.10-0.85; P = 0.024] and lower Doppler sum score of 24 joints (OR = 0.44, 95% CI: 0.15, 0.87; P = 0.014) were independent predictors for successful discontinuation of bDMARDs at the 2-year follow-up. The predictive value of the Doppler sum score was independent of MRI findings. Previous numbers of bDMARDs were predictive of successful tapering (OR = 0.58, 95% CI: 0.35, 0.91; P = 0.018), whereas ultrasound was not. Clinical parameters were not predictive of successful tapering/discontinuation. Conclusion: Doppler sum score was an independent predictor for successful discontinuation of bDMARDs at the 2-year follow-up - the odds for achieving successful discontinuation decreased by 56% per one-unit increase in Doppler sum score. Ultrasound could not predict successful tapering.