Search

Replication code and data for:M. B. Budolfson, F. Dennig, F. Errickson, S. Feindt, M. Ferranna, M. Fleurbaey, D. Klenert, U. Kornek, K. Kuruc, A. Méjean, W. Peng, N Scovronick, D. Spears, F. Wagner, and S. Zuber, “Climate Action with Revenue Recycling Has Benefits for Poverty, Inequality, and Wellbeing”.Nature Climate Change(2021). https://github.com/Environment-Research/revenue_recyling

International audience

International audience; Climate change raises the issue of intergenerational equity, as catastrophes may unfairly affect some generations. As climate change threatens irreversible and dangerous impacts (IPCC, 2014), possibly leading to economic collapse, the tradeoff is no longer between present and future consumption, but between present consumption and the possible future extinction of civilization (Weitzman, 2009). This paper aims at identifying public policies that can reduce unfairness and strike a compromise between present and future generations when the potential impact of catastrophic climate change on the economy is accounted for. It explores the impact of inequality aversion and the impact of the attitudes towards population size on optimal climate policy when that catastrophic risk is accounted for.We use an integrated assessment model which simulates the future joint evolution of the economy and the climate. The Response model is a dynamic optimization model (Pottier et al., 2015), which belongs to the tradition of compact integrated assessment models such as DICE. It combines a Ramsey-like macroeconomic module and a climate module, and can be used to determine the optimal climate objective by comparing mitigation costs and avoided climate damages. We account for the risk of extinction due to climate change, first by assuming an exogenous probability of extinction, then by assuming a probability of extinction that depends on the temperature and on the level of economic output. We assume that the states of the world where people are wealthy will show enhanced resilience to climate damages, and will therefore face a lower probability of extinction under a given level of climate damages.Integrated assessment models can reveal the policy implications of various normative choices through the use of social welfare functions. Ideally, social welfare criteria should (i) account for inequality aversion (it should thus differ from the utilitarian criterion, which does not account for the distribution of utilities), (ii) satisfy the Pareto principle (i.e. it should account for the preferences of individuals) and (iii) be separable (i.e. the situation of past generations should not impact the evaluation). The ‘Expected Prioritarian Equally Distributed Equivalent’ (Fleurbaey and Zuber, 2014) accounts for the inequality aversion of the social planner and respects a weak form of Pareto, but is not separable under risky prospects (but we will not consider past generations in our analysis). This criterion includes a critical level of consumption which can be interpreted as the level of subsistence.In order to reveal the impact of inequality aversion on optimal climate policy, we consider various isoelastic functions φ, which translate the inequality aversion of the social planner, and various isoelastic functions u, which translate the risk aversion of the social planner. Inequality aversion here relates to the average consumption by individual at time t. Preliminary results using Response in the certain case (with no risk of extinction), and using the standard discounted utilitarian criterion, show that the optimal policy (i.e. the timing of optimal abatement) is identical for equal discount rates r = ρ + ηg, whatever the values of the pure time preference rate ρ and the degree of inequality aversion η. In the risky case, the degree of inequality aversion has a significant impact on the optimal climate policy. In order to reveal the impact of the attitudes towards population size N (which refers to the total number of individuals in all generations), welfare is weighted by the population size through αN, which is a bounded increasing sequence of N. In this case, the criterion gives priority to large populations.

To assess the consequences of sugarcane ethanol introduction in Ghana, we compare the profitability and redistribution consequences of mechanized sugarcane and labour-intensive rice. Yield from crop modelling, data on Louisiana mechanized sugarcane cultivation cost, ethanol transformation in Brazil and rice cultivation in Ghana are used to determine economic profitability. In addition to the comparison of sugarcane and rice with current economic conditions, we use projections of future prices to assess long-term profitability, using the Nexus Land-Use global land-use model and the general equilibrium model Imaclim-R. An in-depth sensitivity analysis both on current and future conditions set bounds on profitability. Assuming irrigation costs typical of Ghana or interest rate higher than 10% would prevent irrigated production from being more profitable than rainfed agriculture. Accounting for future food or fuel price increases, however, favours irrigation. Ultimately, if the interest rates used are sufficiently low and irrigation costs are lower than average costs of past projects in Ghana, the social profitability of irrigation investment rests on future price projections. Irrigation therefore still appears to be a possible option. With our estimation of social prices, ethanol or sugar production appears to be less profitable than rice production. Uncertainties on prices and irrigation costs, however, prevent from drawing definitive conclusions. With sufficiently high ethanol prices (e.g. 2011 prices in Europe, or 2011 Brazil export prices), ethanol could remain more profitable than rice, though an even more risky option.(Texte intégral)

The final objective of the project is to provide an integrated vision of these four case studies in WP4. This deliverable will specifically analyze the conflicts and synergies between various sustainability issues that stem from these four cross sectors linkages under different visions of globalization and development pathways. The challenge is thus to integrate sector-based analysis in a common economic framework capturing the interplay between innovation, the evolution of life styles, macroeconomic constraints (investments, trade...) in a world experiencing strong economictransitions. This report will then develop a set of comprehensive scenarios at the World and European levels. These numerical experiments will aim at analyzing i) the mechanisms that explain the tensions and synergies between various sustainability issues (climate change, land availability, energy security) under various views of the future of economic globalization and ii) ways to mitigate these tensions within the framework of each scenario. We will specifically assess the implementation of climate policies. CO2 emissions have indeed continued to grow in the past decade even more rapidly than predicted (Peters et al., 2011; Raupach et al., 2007; IPCC, 2014). This context is the result of both the diffculty to decouple growth and carbon emissions in developed regions, where development styles cannot be changed overnight, and the rapid carbon-intensive growth patterns of emerging countries (IEA, 2012). It also highlights the necessity to implement ambitious measures to trigger a strong bifurcation away from carbon-intensive development paths (IPCC, 2007, 2014). Despite this scientific consensus, the implementation of ambitious global carbon emission reduction targets remains highly uncertain as shown by the difficulties to reach a global climate agreement under the United Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), in particular since the failure of the Copenhagen Conference in 2009. This is essentially due to the concerns about (a) significant welfare and economic losses consecutive to carbon restrictions and (b) the interplay of climate measures with other sensitive political issues such as the financial crisis, poverty alleviation, job creation, energy and food security, or health and local environmental protection (e.g., see the dilemma of the climate development Gordian knot discussed in (Hourcade et al., 2008)). An integrated vision between sustainable development and the globalisation process can be a precondition to overcome this dilemma in view of post 2015 climate policies.

International audience

Sustaining low CO2 emission pathways to 2100 may rely on electricity production from biomass. We analyze the effect of the availability of biomass resources and technologies with and without carbon capture and storage within a general equilibrium framework. Biomass technologies are introduced into the electricity module of the hybrid general equilibrium model Imaclim-R. We assess the robustness of this technology, with and without carbon capture and storage, as a way of reaching the RCP 3.7 stabilization target. The impact of a uniform CO2 tax on energy prices, investments and the structure of the electricity mix is examined. World GDP growth is affected by the absence of the CCS or biomass options, and biomass is shown to be a possible technological answer to the absence of CCS. As the use of biomass on a large scale might prove unsustainable, we illustrate early action as a strategy to reduce the need for biomass and enhance economic growth in the long term., La poursuite des trajectoires de faible émission de CO2 à l'horizon 2100 peut dépendre de la production d'électricité à partir de la biomasse. Nous analysons l'effet de la disponibilité des ressources et des technologies de la biomasse avec et sans capture et stockage de carbone dans un cadre d'équilibre général. Les technologies de la biomasse sont introduites dans le module électricité du modèle d'équilibre général Imaclim-R. Nous évaluons la robustesse de cette technologie avec et sans capture et stockage de carbone, comme moyen d'atteindre l'objectif de stabilisation RCP 3.7. L'impact d'une taxe carbone uniforme sur les prix de l'énergie, les investissements et la structure du mix électricité est examiné. La croissance du PIB mondial est affectée par l'absence des options du CSC ou de la biomasse, et la biomasse apparait comme une réponse technologique à l'absence du CSC. Dans la mesure où l'utilisation de la biomasse à grande échelle peut s'avérer comme non soutenable, nous illustrons l'action précoce comme une stratégie de réduction des besoins de biomasse et d'amélioration de la croissance économique à long terme.

International audience

What would be the effect of CO2 pricing on global oil supply and demand? This paper introduces a model describing the interaction between conventional and non-conventional oil supply in a Hotelling framework and under CO2 constraints. The model assumes that nonconventional crude oil enters the market when conventional oil supply alone is unable to meet demand, and the social cost of CO2 is included in the calculation of the oil rent at that time. The results reveal the effect of a CO2 tax set at the social cost of CO2 on oil price and demand and the uncertainty associated with the time when conventional oil production might become unable to meet demand. The results show that a tax on CO2 emissions associated with fuel use would reduce oil demand despite the effect of lower future rents, and would delay the time when conventional oil supply is unable to satisfy demand. More precisely, between 81 and 99% of the CO2 tax is carried into the oil price despite the counter-balancing effect of the reduced rent. A CO2 tax on fuel use set at the social cost of CO2 would delay by 25 years the time when conventional oil production is unable to meet oil demand, from 2019 to 2044 (mean value). The results show that this date is very sensitive to the price elasticity of demand and the demand growth rate, which shows the great potential of demand-side measures to smooth the transition towards low-carbon liquid fuel alternatives., ESRC

International audience

International audience

International audience

Background, objectives Episiotomy rates are a national concern and a major source of dissatisfaction among healthcare users. National good practice guidelines (GPG) issued in 2005 recommended that the episiotomy rate should be reduced to less than 30% (http://www.cngof.asso.fr). Nonetheless, some countries have much lower rates and the figure of 20% should be reachable without difficulty. The Clermont-Ferrand university hospital centre (UHC) has two maternity units. In 2004, maternity ward 1 had an episiotomy rate of 29.25% and maternity ward 2, 39.27%. The principal objective of the programme described herein was to reduce these rates. Programme An indicator approach was chosen with annual follow-up of the overall episiotomy rate, to begin in 2006. In 2005, ward 1 had an episiotomy rate of 22.35% and ward 2 of 33.62%. A retrospective targeted clinical audit was also performed on 100 case files covering the period from 1 July though 1 December, 2005. The indication for the episiotomy was reported in 48% of cases, the name of the person who performed it was available in 87%, and the name of the person who did the repair in 86%. The type of thread used was available in only 68% of cases. A complete report of the repair was included in 64% of the files. No file included a pain assessment. The use of anaesthesia during the repair was noted in 90% of cases and all cases with suture complications included a medical observation. Steps were taken and activities conducted to reduce the rate between 2006 and 2008. They consisted of the annual dissemination of the episiotomy rate compared with the regional rate to all midwife managers (for further dissemination) and to physicians. The Auvergne Perinatal Health Network (RSPA) also relays this dissemination each year. Awareness campaigns were conducted for healthcare professionals, during inhouse departmental meetings or regional conferences, over a 3-year period. A structured computer file was developed and made available to all; it includes items related to episiotomies and allows direct viewing of all national guidelines including on those on episiotomies. Finally, training was provided for interested volunteer midwives and physicians in delivery positions other than dorsal decubitus. Clinical impact Over this period the overall episiotomy rate has fallen markedly: in 2008, it was 19.34% in ward 1 and 17.93% in ward 2. A second targeted clinical audit was performed on 85 files of women who gave birth in one of our two maternity wards between 1 July and 1 December, 2007. It showed an improvement in all the criteria considered in the audit except for the assessment of pain during the repair. Since 2006, annual comparisons have been conducted with national rates, via the Audipog registry, and with regional rates via the RSPA. Discussion, conclusion The working group decided at the end of 2009 to close this practice evaluation process, but to continue to provide the teams with their episiotomy rates together with the regional and national means, via Audipog (http://www.audipog.assets). The rates reached suggest that there is no longer substantial room for improvement, especially considering the large number of problem pregnancies in our reference centre. Participation in this process and its positive impact on practices were aided by the RSPA policy that adapted this national objective to local conditions and promoted it. The presence of physician-leaders, including the department head, who had also participated in developing the 2005 GPG, was also a key element. Contexte, objectifs Le taux d’episiotomies est une preoccupation nationale et est source d9une grande insatisfaction des usagers de la sante. La recommandation nationale (RPC) de 2005 recommandait d9avoir moins de 30% de taux d’episiotomies (http://www.cngof.asso.fr). Cependant, certains pays ont des taux beaucoup plus bas et le chiffre de 20% pourrait etre atteint sans difficulte. Notre etablissement universitaire (CHU) dispose de deux maternites En 2004, la Maternite 1 avait un taux d’episiotomies de 29,25% et la Maternite 2 de 39,27%. L9objectif principal de cette demarche etait la reduction du taux d’episiotomies. Programme Une approche par indicateur a ete choisie avec suivi annuel du taux global d’episiotomies, a partir de 2006. En 2005, la Maternite 1 avait un taux d’episiotomie de 22,35% et la Maternite 2 de 33,62%. Par ailleurs, un audit clinique cible a ete realise de facon retrospective sur 100 dossiers couvrant la periode du 01/07/2005 au 01/12/2005. L9indication de l’episiotomie etait notifiee dans 48% des cas, le nom de la personne ayant realise l’episiotomie etait disponible dans 87% des cas et le nom de la personne ayant realise la suture dans 86% des cas. Le type de fil utilise n’etait disponible que dans 68% des cas. Un compte rendu complet de la refection etait present dans 64% des dossiers. L’evaluation de la douleur a ete retrouvee dans aucun dossier. L9utilisation d9une anesthesie durant la refection etait notee dans 90% des cas et en cas de complications de la suture, une observation medicale etait presente dans le dossier dans 100% des cas. Des actions d9amelioration ont ete realisees entre 2006 et 2008. Elles ont consistees en une diffusion annuelle du taux d’episiotomies compare aux taux regionaux a l9ensemble des cadres superieurs pour diffusion et aux medecins. Cette diffusion est aussi relayee chaque annee par le Reseau de Sante perinatale d9Auvergne (RSPA). Une sensibilisation des professionnels lors de reunions internes au CHU ou de reunions regionales, sur 3 ans. Une mise a disposition d9un dossier structure informatise comportant des items relatifs a l’episiotomie et permettant une visualisation directe des recommandations nationales dont l’episiotomie. La mise en place de formation a destination des sages-femmes et des medecins volontaires pour les positions autres qu9en decubitus dorsal lors de l9accouchement. Resultats en terme d9impact clinique Ainsi, au fil des annees le taux global d’episiotomies a chute et en 2008, il etait de 19,34% a la Maternite 1 et de 17,93% a la Maternite 2. Un deuxieme audit clinique cible a ete realise sur 85 dossiers de parturientes ayant accouche dans une des 2 maternites du CHU de Clermont Ferrand entre le 01/07/2007 et le 01/12/2007. Il montrait une amelioration sur tous les criteres de la grille d9audit sauf sur celui de l’evaluation de la douleur lors de la refection de l’episiotomie. Une comparaison aux taux nationaux via le registre Audipog et au taux regional via le RSPA est en place depuis 2006. Discussion, conclusion Le groupe de travail a decide fin 2009, de clore cette demarche d9EPP tout en continuant a rendre aux equipes leur taux d’episiotomies en reference au taux moyen regional et national via l9Audipog (http://www.audipog.net). En effet, le taux atteint ne laissait plus presager une grande marge d9amelioration etant donne le recrutement important de grossesses pathologiques dans notre centre. L9adhesion a cette demarche et l9impact positif sur les pratiques sont lies au fait que cette objectif national a ete decline et favorise par la politique du RSPA. La presence de medecins leaders dont le chef de service qui avaient participes a la RPC de 2005, a ete aussi un element moteur.