19 results on '"Máñez Costa M"'
Search Results
2. An assessment of water management measures for climate change adaptation of agriculture in Seewinkel
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Valencia, R., Guillaumot, L., Sahu, R.K., Nam, C., Lierhammer, L., Máñez Costa, M., Valencia, R., Guillaumot, L., Sahu, R.K., Nam, C., Lierhammer, L., and Máñez Costa, M.
- Abstract
To develop appropriate climate change adaptation plans, evidence of the effectiveness of adaptation measures is required. At a regional scale, however, this information is usually lacking. The region of Seewinkel in Austria was taken as a case study because of its extensive agricultural industry and its unique ecosystem of saline lakes. The goal of the study was to provide stakeholders with evidence to support their climate change adaptation process. Adaptation measures discussed by local stakeholders were analyzed to determine their efficacy. A system dynamics (SD) based model was developed to serve as a tool for the water policy analysis and to be used in place of advanced hydrological models. The model was calibrated using observational data and forced with bias-adjusted EURO-CORDEX climate data for three representative concentration pathways (RCPs) (2010–2100). Three parameters in the model were changed to simulate adaptation measures. The results showed that combined measures, increasing irrigation efficiency and changing crops could reduce water demand by an average of 40 %, 23 % and 23 %, respectively, for all RCPs. The local aquifer's level could be increased above the historical average by an average of 0.43 m by combined measures, 0.20 m by increasing irrigation efficiency, 0.20 m by changing crops and 0.06 m by artificially recharging the aquifer.
- Published
- 2023
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3. Using the adaptive cycle in climate-risk insurance to design resilient futures
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Cremades, R., Surminski, S., Máñez Costa, M., Hudson, P., Shrivastava, P., and Gascoigne, J.
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- 2018
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4. Weather and Climate Services to Support a Risk-Sharing Mechanism for Adaptation of the Agricultural Sector. A Theoretical Example for Drought-Prone Areas
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Máñez Costa, M. and Kovalevsky, D.
- Abstract
Sharing the burden of adaptation is key for the agricultural sector in developing countries. For the agricultural sector in developing countries, the losses will go from 3% under 1.5 °C scenario to 7% under 2 °C scenario (Masson-Delmotte et al. 2018). This anticipated information on possible climate change-driven challenges possesses a big load in farmers management that might ex-ante stop investing because of the negative consequences of the scenarios presented. This situation could be even worse in subsistence farming system totally dependent on the yields. Crop insurances can be a good way to overcome some of the losses. In this paper, we present weather-based insurance schemes (WII), which are based on weather index objectively determined for the specific agricultural region, and therefore the individual loss assessment, which makes insurances too expensive, is not necessary. We present the results of decisions based on perfect and imperfect weather forecasts and conclude by offering insights in the difference of decision-making if a perfect forecast might be available or not and the consequences for farmers income.
- Published
- 2022
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5. All options, not silver bullets, needed to limit global warming to 1.5°C: a scenario appraisal
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Warszawski, L., Kriegler, E., Lenton, T.M., Gaffney, O., Jacob, D., Klingenfeld, D., Koide, R., Máñez Costa, M., Messner, D., Nakicenovic, N., Schellnhuber, H.J., Schlosser, P., Takeuchi, K., van der Leeuw, S., Whiteman, G., and Rockström, J.
- Abstract
Climate science provides strong evidence of the necessity of limiting global warming to 1.5°C, in line with the Paris Climate Agreement. The IPCC 1.5°C special report (SR1.5) presents 414 emissions scenarios modelled for the report, of which around 50 are classified as '1.5°C scenarios', with no or low temperature overshoot. These emission scenarios differ in their reliance on individual mitigation levers, including reduction of global energy demand, decarbonisation of energy production, development of land-management systems, and the pace and scale of deploying carbon dioxide removal (CDR) technologies. The reliance of 1.5°C scenarios on these levers needs to be critically assessed in light of the potentials of the relevant technologies and roll-out plans. We use a set of five parameters to bundle and characterise the mitigation levers employed in the SR1.5 1.5°C scenarios. For each of these levers, we draw on the literature to define 'medium' and 'high' upper bounds that delineate between their 'reasonable', 'challenging' and 'speculative' use by mid century. We do not find any 1.5°C scenarios that stay within all medium upper bounds on the five mitigation levers. Scenarios most frequently 'over use' carbon dioxide removal with geological storage as a mitigation lever, whilst reductions of energy demand and carbon intensity of energy production are 'over used' less frequently. If we allow mitigation levers to be employed up to our high upper bounds, we are left with 22 of the SR1.5 1.5°C scenarios with no or low overshoot. The scenarios that fulfill these criteria are characterised by greater coverage of the available mitigation levers than those scenarios that exceed at least one of the high upper bounds. When excluding the two scenarios that exceed the SR1.5 carbon budget for limiting global warming to 1.5°C, this subset of 1.5°C scenarios shows a range of 15-22 Gt CO2 (16-22 Gt CO2 interquartile range) for emissions in 2030. For the year of reaching net zero CO2 emissions the range is 2039-2061 (2049-2057 interquartile range).
- Published
- 2021
6. Recommendations for future research priorities for climate modeling and climate services
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Barcelona Supercomputing Center, Hewitt, C. D., Guglielmo, F., Joussaume, S., Bessembinder, J., Christel, I., Doblas-Reyes, Francisco, Djurdjevic, V., Garret, N., Kjellström, E., Krzic, A., Máñez Costa, M., Lera St. Clair, Asuncion, Barcelona Supercomputing Center, Hewitt, C. D., Guglielmo, F., Joussaume, S., Bessembinder, J., Christel, I., Doblas-Reyes, Francisco, Djurdjevic, V., Garret, N., Kjellström, E., Krzic, A., Máñez Costa, M., and Lera St. Clair, Asuncion
- Abstract
Climate observations, research, and models are used extensively to help understand key processes underlying changes to the climate on a range of time scales from months to decades, and to investigate and describe possible longer-term future climates. The knowledge generated serves as a scientific basis for climate services that are provided with the aim of tailoring information for decision-makers and policy-makers. Climate models and climate services are crucial elements for supporting policy and other societal actions to mitigate and adapt to climate change, and for making society better prepared and more resilient to climate-related risks. We present recommendations for future research topics for climate modeling and for climate services. These recommendations were produced by a group of experts in climate modeling and climate services, selected based on their individual leadership roles or participation in international activities. The recommendations were reached through extensive analysis, consideration and discussion of current and desired research capabilities, and wider engagement and refinement of the recommendations was achieved through a targeted workshop of initial recommendations and an open meeting at the European Geosciences Union General Assembly. The findings emphasize how research and innovation activities in the fields of climate modeling and climate services can contribute to improving climate knowledge and information with saliency for users in order to enhance capacity to transition to a sustainable and resilient society. The findings are relevant worldwide but are deliberately intended to influence the European Commission’s next major multi-annual framework program of research and innovation over the period 2021–27., This work was conducted under the Climateurope project funded by the European Commission through the Horizon 2020 Programme for Research and Innovation: Grant Agreement 689029. We would like to acknowledge the European Commission for wanting to have the recommendations, and the following experts who contributed their time and ideas through workshops and discussions: Mario Acosta, Dragana Bojovic, Laurent Bopp, Olivier Boucher, Pascale Braconnot, Carlo Buontempo, Markus Donat, Eric Hoa, Bart van den Hurk, Daniela Jacob, Colin Jones, Filip Lefebre,Jaroslav Mysiak, Slobodan Nickovic, Steffen M. Olsen, Mark Payne, Adriaan Perrels, Joeri Rogelj, Doug Smith, Roger Street, Jean-Noel Thepaut, Alberto Troccoli, Pier Luigi Vidale, and Ilaria Vigo. We also would like to thank the two anonymous reviewers., Peer Reviewed, Postprint (published version)
- Published
- 2021
7. A Method for Enhancing Capacity of Local Governance for Climate Change Adaptation
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Williams, D. S., primary, Celliers, L., additional, Unverzagt, K., additional, Videira, N., additional, Máñez Costa, M., additional, and Giordano, R., additional
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- 2020
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8. How to shape climate risk policies after the Paris agreement? The importance of perceptions as a driver for climate risk management
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Máñez Costa, M., Shreve, C., and Carmona, M.
- Abstract
Risk perception research has played an influential role in supporting risk management and risk communication policy. Risk perception studies are popular across a range of disciplines in the social and natural sciences for a wide range of hazard types. Their results have helped to articulate the complex individual, relational, structural, and environmental factors influencing people\'s behavior. Connections between individual and collective behaviors and norms impacting global climate change, and consequently, local disaster risk, however, are infrequently included in disaster risk management. This paper presents results from two diverse and complementary European risk perception studies examining both natural and anthropogenic hazards. Research gaps and recommendations for developing more comprehensive risk management strategies are presented.
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- 2017
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9. The 5th International Conference on Climate Services (ICCS5) – ‘Innovation in Climate Services and Capacity Building’
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Viktor, E., Ehlert, S., Haensler, A., Guillen Bolanos, T., Blome, T., and Máñez Costa, M.
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Atmospheric Science ,Global and Planetary Change - Abstract
No abstract
- Published
- 2017
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10. ICCS 5 - Fifth International Conference on Climate Services, Innovation in Climate Services and Capacity Building - Conference report
- Author
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Blome, T., Haensler, A., Máñez Costa, M., and Jacob, D.
- Abstract
The International Conference on Climate Services (ICCS) is the meeting of the Climate Services Partnership (CSP), taking place every one to two years. The ICCS5 in February/March 2017 was held in Cape Town, South Africa, jointly organised by the Climate Service Center Germany (GERICS) and the University of Cape Town (UCT). The conference was generously sponsored by the German Ministry of Education and Research (BMBF), the main donator for the meeting. Moreover, other sponsors contributed to making the event possible: the Stockholm Environmental Institute (SEI) and the World Bank (WB).
- Published
- 2017
11. Development of a prioritization tool for climate change adaptation measures in the forestry sector - A Nicaraguan case study : GERICS - CSC Report
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Guillen Bolanos, T.Y., Máñez Costa, M., and Nehren, U.
- Published
- 2016
12. Considering scale and scaling for vulnerability and adaptation studies in the water sector Case studies in four geographies : CSC Report
- Author
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Shreve, C.M., Máñez Costa, M., and Kelman, I.
- Published
- 2014
13. Using the adaptive cycle in climate-risk insurance to design resilient futures
- Author
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Cremades, R., Surminski, Swenja, Máñez Costa, M., Hudson, P., Shrivastava, P., Gascoigne, J., Cremades, R., Surminski, Swenja, Máñez Costa, M., Hudson, P., Shrivastava, P., and Gascoigne, J.
- Abstract
Assessing the dynamics of resilience could help insurers and governments reduce the costs of climate-risk insurance schemes and secure future insurability in the face of an increase in extreme hydro-meteorological events related to climate change.
14. Nature-based solutions for coastal risk management in the Mediterranean basin: A literature review.
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Motta Zanin G, Muwafu SP, and Máñez Costa M
- Subjects
- Europe, Population Density, Climate Change, Agriculture
- Abstract
The Mediterranean basin is one of the most vulnerable regions worldwide due to its population density, the concentration of economic activities along the coasts and borderline climatic balance. It is identified as one of the most critical erosion hotspots in Europe, mainly due to the degradation of coastal areas, overexploitation and unsustainable practices affecting beach tourism, agriculture and fishing. The region is also affected by other phenomena such as storms and floods, which are exacerbated by climate change. To mitigate and adapt to these environmental and climatic changes, Nature based Solutions (NbSs) are considered a promising step-forward. However, despite their global recognition in both research and policy, few scientific papers and documents on the state of NbSs implementation for coastal risk management in the Mediterranean exist. This paper aims to provide an understanding of the status of NbS adoption for coastal risk management in the Mediterranean through a literature review. Out of 162 scientific papers and documents, only 23 were found to be relevant to the study. Through the definition and support of an innovative matrix-based approach, the analysis of the state of adoption of NbSs have been performed. Despite the limited information on the state of the adoption of NbSs for coastal risk management in the Mediterranean due to the low numbers of scientific research and documents available, some key considerations have been revealed., Competing Interests: Declaration of competing interest The authors declare that they have no known competing financial interests or personal relationships that could have appeared to influence the work reported in this paper., (Copyright © 2024 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.)
- Published
- 2024
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15. An assessment of water management measures for climate change adaptation of agriculture in Seewinkel.
- Author
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Valencia Cotera R, Guillaumot L, Sahu RK, Nam C, Lierhammer L, and Máñez Costa M
- Abstract
Competing Interests: Declaration of competing interest The authors declare that they have no known competing financial interests or personal relationships that could have appeared to influence the work reported in this paper.
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- 2023
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16. Decision-support tools to build climate resilience against emerging infectious diseases in Europe and beyond.
- Author
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Rocklöv J, Semenza JC, Dasgupta S, Robinson EJZ, Abd El Wahed A, Alcayna T, Arnés-Sanz C, Bailey M, Bärnighausen T, Bartumeus F, Borrell C, Bouwer LM, Bretonnière PA, Bunker A, Chavardes C, van Daalen KR, Encarnação J, González-Reviriego N, Guo J, Johnson K, Koopmans MPG, Máñez Costa M, Michaelakis A, Montalvo T, Omazic A, Palmer JRB, Preet R, Romanello M, Shafiul Alam M, Sikkema RS, Terrado M, Treskova M, Urquiza D, and Lowe R
- Abstract
Climate change is one of several drivers of recurrent outbreaks and geographical range expansion of infectious diseases in Europe. We propose a framework for the co-production of policy-relevant indicators and decision-support tools that track past, present, and future climate-induced disease risks across hazard, exposure, and vulnerability domains at the animal, human, and environmental interface. This entails the co-development of early warning and response systems and tools to assess the costs and benefits of climate change adaptation and mitigation measures across sectors, to increase health system resilience at regional and local levels and reveal novel policy entry points and opportunities. Our approach involves multi-level engagement, innovative methodologies, and novel data streams. We take advantage of intelligence generated locally and empirically to quantify effects in areas experiencing rapid urban transformation and heterogeneous climate-induced disease threats. Our goal is to reduce the knowledge-to-action gap by developing an integrated One Health-Climate Risk framework., Competing Interests: All authors declare no competing interests., (© 2023 The Author(s).)
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- 2023
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17. Assessing the long-term effectiveness of Nature-Based Solutions under different climate change scenarios.
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Gómez Martín E, Máñez Costa M, Egerer S, and Schneider UA
- Subjects
- Cities, Droughts, Floods, Climate Change, Ecosystem
- Abstract
Nature-Based Solutions (NBS) have been gaining importance in many European cities to reduce floods' impacts. However, evidence of their effectiveness in reducing the impacts of droughts in rural areas are scarce. Besides, ignoring future climate conditions or the specific socio-economic context in which NBS is applied could decrease their long-term effectiveness. This study aims to stress the importance of developing scientifically-based and customised information on climate change impacts as a precondition for designing and implementing NBS. For that, a System Dynamic model was developed to analyse and understand the dynamic behaviour of NBS responding to different scenarios of climate change and socio-economic contexts. This article recognises the proactive involvement at all societal levels as an essential component to enhance and maintain ecosystem resilience and, therefore, NBS
1 effectiveness. Thus, participatory modelling activities were carried out to engage stakeholders in the model development process to obtain relevant bottom-up information and organise stakeholders' collective knowledge in a graphical structure that captures the system's main dynamics. The Medina del Campo Groundwater Body was used as a frame for the analysis. The study results highlight the need for developing scientifically-based and customised information on the impacts of climate change on NBS as an essential precondition to maintain their long-term effectiveness., Competing Interests: Declaration of competing interest The authors declare that they have no known competing financial interests or personal relationships that could have appeared to influence the work reported in this paper., (Copyright © 2021 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.)- Published
- 2021
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18. Using a system thinking approach to assess the contribution of nature based solutions to sustainable development goals.
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Gómez Martín E, Giordano R, Pagano A, van der Keur P, and Máñez Costa M
- Abstract
Climate change and the overexploitation of natural resources increase the need to integrate sustainable development policies at both national and international levels to fit the demands of a growing population. In 2015 the United Nations (UN) established the 2030 Agenda for sustainable development with the aim of eradicating extreme poverty, reducing inequality and protecting the planet. The Agenda 2030 highlights the importance of biodiversity and the functioning of ecosystems to maintain economic activities and the well-being of local communities. Nature Based Solutions (NBS) support biodiversity conservation and the functioning of ecosystems. NBS are increasingly seen as innovative solutions to manage water-related risks while transforming natural capital into a source of green growth and sustainable development. In this context, NBS could potentially contribute to the achievement of several Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) by promoting the delivery of bundles of ecosystem services together generating various social, economic and environmental co-benefits. However, to achieve the full potential of NBS, it is necessary to recognize the trade-offs and synergies of the co-benefits associated with their implementation. To this aim, we have adopted a system perspective and a multi-sectoral approach to analyse the potential of NBS to deliver co-benefits while at the same time reducing the negative effects of water-related hazards. Using the case study of Copenhagen, we have analysed the relationships between the co-benefits associated with the scenario of the restoration of the Ladegaardsaa urban river. Our hypothesis is that enhancing the understanding of the social, economic and environmental factors of the system, including mutual influences and trade-offs, could improve the decision-making process and thereby enhance the capability of NBS to contribute to the achievement of the SDGs., Competing Interests: Declaration of competing interest The authors declare that they have no known competing financial interests or personal relationships that could have appeared to influence the work reported in this paper., (Copyright © 2020. Published by Elsevier B.V.)
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- 2020
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19. Natural Assurance Scheme: A level playing field framework for Green-Grey infrastructure development.
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Denjean B, Altamirano MA, Graveline N, Giordano R, van der Keur P, Moncoulon D, Weinberg J, Máñez Costa M, Kozinc Z, Mulligan M, Pengal P, Matthews J, van Cauwenbergh N, López Gunn E, and Bresch DN
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- Climate Change, Models, Theoretical, Conservation of Natural Resources methods, Cost-Benefit Analysis, Economic Development
- Abstract
This paper proposes a conceptual framework to systematize the use of Nature-based solutions (NBS) by integrating their resilience potential into Natural Assurance Scheme (NAS), focusing on insurance value as corner stone for both awareness-raising and valuation. As such one of its core goal is to align research and pilot projects with infrastructure development constraints and priorities. Under NAS, the integrated contribution of natural infrastructure to Disaster Risk Reduction is valued in the context of an identified growing need for climate robust infrastructure. The potential of NAS benefits and trade-off are explored by through the alternative lens of Disaster Resilience Enhancement (DRE). Such a system requires a joint effort of specific knowledge transfer from research groups and stakeholders to potential future NAS developers and investors. We therefore match the knowledge gaps with operational stages of the development of NAS from a project designer perspective. We start by highlighting the key role of the insurance industry in incentivizing and assessing disaster and slow onset resilience enhancement strategies. In parallel we place the public sector as potential kick-starters in DRE initiatives through the existing initiatives and constraints of infrastructure procurement. Under this perspective the paper explores the required alignment of Integrated Water resources planning and Public investment systems. Ultimately this will provide the possibility for both planners and investors to design no regret NBS and mixed Grey-Green infrastructures systems. As resources and constraints are widely different between infrastructure development contexts, the framework does not provide explicit methodological choices but presents current limits of knowledge and know-how. In conclusion the paper underlines the potential of NAS to ease the infrastructure gap in water globally by stressing the advantages of investment in the protection, enhancement and restoration of natural capital as an effective climate change adaptation investment., (Copyright © 2017. Published by Elsevier Inc.)
- Published
- 2017
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