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The article deals with several relevant socio-demographic issues in the largest by territory constituent entity of the Russian Federation – the Republic of Sakha (Yakutia), based on Rosstat data and information arrays obtained in the course of sociological study conducted in 2019 and 2020 by the staff of the Department of Geo-Urban Studies and Spatial Demography of the Institute for Demographic Research (IDR FCTAS RAS).The introduction notes the relevance of the study and methodological approaches to the analysis of the problems under review.The frst part of the article describes the general economic and socio-demographic situation in the region. It demonstrates how the industry specialization of Yakutia determines the socio-economic policy in the region. It is noted that the developing mining industry, along with the construction of large infrastructure facilities, requires an influx of labor resources.In the second part of the article, after formulating the concept of sampling within the framework of a sociological survey (a model using key characteristics of the general population, based on the principles of quota-proportional and territorial methods), the social status of the population, its migration moods, attitudes towards labor migrants from abroad are analyzed, as well as the economic situation in general and the dynamics of the development of key enterprises in the region.It is argued that, despite the active industrial development of the Republic of Sakha (Yakutia), the existing socio-economic problems in the future may influence the pace of spatial development of the region. First and foremost, it is a problem of migration outflows. Although the demographic indicators at the republic level are high, there is a division of the region's territory into a decreasing periphery and a growing centre. As in most other constituent entities of the Russian Federation, in Yakutia, there are processes of population concentration in the most prospective areas.The authors drew up conclusions and proposals which, in their view, offer a targeted approach to developing programmes on improving the quality of life of the local population, establishing compensatory mechanisms in various spheres, taking into account the huge territory of the republic and its severe climatic conditions

The dominance of agglomerations in post-industrial economic development is a global trend due to the transition to a knowledge economy and the formation of consumer, compact cities. Production as such — agriculture, industry — goes to the periphery both in terms of their role in economy and in geographical terms. The main place is occupied by services: entertainment and ensuring high-quality reproduction of the population — healthcare and education. An essential condition for the successful development of peripheral locations is attainability of the core of agglomeration by a daily trip. Agglomerations are becoming virtually uncontested for ensuring relatively high general levels of labor productivity and quality of life for large masses of population. However, agglomerations also give rise to problems, the complex solution of which requires understanding of the new historic content of the traditional economic and geographical categories, such as central places, connectivity, geographical framework, relations between the center and the periphery. From a practical point of view, this should be reflected in federal programs for development of the largest agglomerations, which now present the only opportunity to quickly solve their most acute problems and realize their development potential, which will also be transferred to development of the regions adjacent to them. Federal support for development of agglomerations — the central places of regions, on the one hand is realistic in the prevailing conditions of centralized state finances and lack of local resources. On the other hand, unlike federal programs that disperse funds throughout the region, such support will contribute to the self-development of regions in accordance with the nature of their participation in the national and global economies, since the organic development of cities and territories within economic influence of the agglomeration is latter's natural function.

The relevance of this work is determined by the growth of negative trends associated with the increasing share of dilapidated and emergency housing in the housing stock of Russia. The elimination of such housing is a priority of the housing policy. The aim of the study was to identify the causes of the sharp increase in uninhabitable housing and to assess the prospects of solving this problem in the near future. The rapid accumulation of such housing is associated with low rates of demolition or decommissioning, insufficient capital repairs and shortage of newly commissioned housing. The scientific novelty of the article is as follows. Using the methodology of regional typologies construction, the authors estimate the dynamics of changes in the situation with housing unfit for living in different regions of the country for 2010-2016; the number and housing supply of the population living in such fund are calculated. Resettlement of citizens from dilapidated housing is one of the most pressing issues relating primarily to the poor and socially vulnerable segments of the population. Many resettled people are provided with obviously low quality housing. Scenarios for changing the share of dilapidated and emergency housing have been developed, including calculations of the number of people that will have to live there under certain housing policy options. Application of the scenario modeling method made it possible to draw original conclusions about the prospects of reducing the time of liquidation of uninhabitable housing, which differ from similar results of other researchers. In the preparation of forecasts, the measures of the state housing policy in 2013-2017 aimed at the elimination of emergency housingwere taken into account. Forecasts with such approaches are used for the first time. The results of the study can be used in the work of Federal and local authorities, in the implementation of the Federal project "Ensuring sustainable reduction of uninhabitable housing", as well as in scientific works on this issue.

In many parts of the world, watershed management practices have been extremely effective. However, implementation of soil and water conservation technologies in the humid African highlands, while beneficial in the short term, were remarkably unsuccessful in the long term. Insights from community knowledge perspectives have revealed that alternative methods are needed. Although conservation practices are designed to conserve water in semi-arid areas, safely draining excess water is needed in humid areas. The objective of this paper is to review current watershed management approaches used in humid regions as exemplified by those used in Ethiopian highlands and then based on these findings propose more effective practices. Although current government sponsored practices primarily protect the hillsides, direct run-off is generated from areas that become saturated on valley bottoms near rivers and on specific parts of the hillsides with degraded soils (or with highly permeable surface soils) and with perched water tables on slowly permeable horizons at shallow depths. In these areas, direct run-off is increasing with deforestation and the soil degradation, demanding additional drainage ways that evolve in the form of gullies. Therefore, watershed management interventions for erosion control should prioritize revegetation of degraded areas, increasing sustainable infiltration, and rehabilitating gullies situated at saturated bottomlands.

Saturation-excess runoff is the major runoff mechanism in humid well-vegetated areas where infiltration rates often exceed rainfall intensity. While the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) is one of the most widely used models, it predicts runoff based mainly on soil and land use characteristics, and is implicitly an infiltration-excess runoff type of model. Previous attempts to incorporate the saturation-excess runoff mechanism in SWAT fell short due to the inability to distribute water from one Hydrological Response Unit (HRU) to another. This paper introduces a modified version of SWAT, referred to as SWAT-Hillslope (SWAT-HS). This modification improves the simulation of saturation-excess runoff by redefining HRUs based on wetness classes, and by introducing a surface aquifer with the ability to route interflow from “drier” to “wetter” wetness classes. Mathematically, the surface aquifer is a non-linear reservoir that generates rapid subsurface stormflow as the water table in the surface aquifer rises. The SWAT-HS model was tested in the Town Brook watershed in the upper reaches of the West Branch Delaware River in the Catskill region of New York, USA. SWAT-HS predicted discharge well with a Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency of 0.68 and 0.87 for daily and monthly time steps. Compared to the original SWAT model, SWAT-HS predicted less surface runoff and groundwater flow and more lateral flow. The saturated areas predicted by SWAT-HS were concentrated in locations with a high topographic index and were in agreement with field observations. With the incorporation of topographic characteristics and the addition of the surface aquifer, SWAT-HS improved streamflow simulation and gave a good representation of saturated areas on the date that measurements were available. SWAT-HS is expected to improve water quality model predictions where the location of the surface runoff matters.

The Soil Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) is employed throughout the world to simulate watershed processes. A limitation of this model is that locations of saturation excess overland flow in hilly and mountainous regions with an impermeable layer at shallow depth cannot be simulated realistically. The objective of this research is to overcome this limitation with minor changes in the original SWAT code. The new approach is called SWAT-with-impervious-layers (SWAT-wil). Adaptations consisted of redefining the hillslope length, restricting downward percolation from the root zone, and redefining hydrologic response units (HRUs) such that they are associated with the landscape position. Finally, input parameters were chosen such that overland flow from variable saturated areas (VSAs) corresponds to the variable source interpretation of the Soil Conservation Service (SCS) curve number runoff equation. We tested the model for the Town Brook watershed in the Catskill Mountains. The results showed that the discharge calculated with SWAT-wil agreed with observed outflow and results simulated with the original SWAT and SWAT-hillslope (SWAT-HS) models that had a surface aquifer that transferred water between groups of HRUs. The locations of the periodically saturated runoff areas were predicted by SWAT-wil at the right locations. Current users can utilize the SWAT-wil approach for catchments where VSA hydrology predominates.

Objective To assess if pregnancies among women with Addison's disease (AD) are at higher risk of adverse maternal and neonatal outcomes. Design Population-based retrospective cohort study. Setting/Population All births in the United States’ Healthcare Cost and Utilization Project-Nationwide Inpatient Sample from 2003 to 2011. Methods Baseline characteristics were compared between women with AD and those without, and prevalence over time was measured. Logistic regression was used to estimate the effect of AD on maternal and neonatal outcomes by calculating the crude and adjusted odds ratios (OR) and corresponding 95% confidence intervals (95% CI). Results We calculated a prevalence of AD in pregnancy of 5.5/100 000, increasing from 5.6 to 9.6/100 000 (P = 0.0001) over the 9-year study period. Compared with women without AD, women with AD were more likely to deliver preterm (OR 1.50, 95% CI 1.16–1.95), deliver by caesarean section (OR 1.32, 95% CI 1.08–1.61), have impaired wound healing (OR 4.28, 95% CI 2.55–7.18), develop infections (OR 2.44, 95% CI 1.66–3.58) and develop thromboembolism (OR 5.21, 95% CI 2.15–12.63), require transfusions (OR 6.69, 95% CI 4.69–9.54), and have prolonged postpartum hospital admissions (OR 5.71, 95% CI 4.37–7.47). Maternal mortality was significantly higher than in the comparison group (OR 22.30, 95% CI 6.82–72.96). Congenital anomalies (OR 3.62, 95% CI 2.05–6.39) and small-for-gestational age infants (OR 1.78, 95% CI 1.15–2.75) were more likely in these pregnancies. Conclusions Addison's disease significantly increases the risk of severe adverse maternal and neonatal outcomes, so pregnant women with AD are best managed in tertiary-care centres. Tweetable abstract Pregnancies complicated by Addison's disease have an increased risk of adverse maternal and neonatal outcomes.

In-stream nutrient release and retention control the timing and quantity of export at the watershed outlet by mobilization and transport of phosphorus (P) sources from land to the channel, and remobilization of transient stores of P from stream beds. We investigated the significance of stream processes in regulating P loading to the Cannonsville watershed, NY, USA. A mass balance of estimated P inputs to the stream with observed P export at the watershed outlet was used to quantify P delivery and explore the behavior of P. Stream channel transport of both dissolved and particulate P is found to be non-conservative, with dissolved P being retained during low flows and particulate P released during high flows. The results suggest that differences in the magnitude and relative importance of in-stream biogeochemical processes under different flow regimes regulate P delivery in ways that may influence ecological impacts to downstream river reaches and reservoirs.

Stream turbidity levels tend to increase during high stream discharge events, and it is important to quantify the suspended sediment flux during these events that could potentially lead to water quality problems. Here, a case study for estimating suspended sediment loads (as a product of turbidity and stream discharge) in streams that are part of the New York City (NYC) water supply in the Catskill region of New York State is presented. Over the 8 year study period 80% of the suspended sediment load was transported during less than 4% of the time, indicating the importance of estimating storm event suspended sediment loads. The objective of this study was to understand the underlying factors controlling the uncertainty in the discharge vs turbidity relationship at the outlet of the watershed draining into the NYC Ashokan Reservoir. High frequency (15-min) automated monitoring of stream turbidity was combined with stream discharge measurements of a similar frequency to provide an estimate of the true suspended sediment load that could be used for model testing and verification at two time scales; daily and events. Multivariate statistical analyses indicate that average daily stream turbidity during storm events can be influenced by the spatial variability in runoff, antecedent conditions, and season. A predictive relationship of event mean stream turbidity based on stream discharge alone led to a strong predictive relationship (r2 = 0.81), but also a 10% underestimation of the cumulative measured event mean suspended sediment load. Inclusion of information on the time between events improved the regression equation (r2 = 0.89), and reduced the cumulative difference between estimated and measured event mean suspended sediment loads to 7% underestimation.

The New York City water supply region, located in the Catskill Mountains in upstate New York, has always had a historically variable snow cover, with consequent effects on the magnitude of spring runoff and the relative importance of winter vs. spring periods on annual hydrologic and nutrient budgets. Simulations show that under present conditions (1966–2005), on average 38% (12–70%) of the annual total dissolved phosphorus load occurs during winter (November– February) while future predictions (2046–2065 and 2081–2100) show winter nutrient loads may account for an average of 46% (18–73%) of the annual load. It is expected that changes in the timing of nutrient loading will lead to some increase in phytoplankton growth under isothermal conditions prior to the onset of thermal stratification, a reduced bloom coinciding with the onset of thermal stratification, and on an annual basis somewhat lower levels of biomass. However, future climate simulations using two different one dimensional reservoir water quality models show no strong relationship between changes in algal biomass and the proportion of winter nutrient loading. The lack of a winter response calls into question model assumptions concerning the growth potential of phytoplankton under deeply mixed low light conditions, as well as factors influencing the bioavailability of nutrients input during the winter period. This illustrates the pitfalls of simulating future climate conditions,when the seasonality of model drivers has changed and processes regulating winter conditions are not strongly represented.

Recent works have indicated that climate change in the northeastern United States is already being observed in the form of shorter winters, higher annual average air temperature, and more frequent extreme heat and precipitation events. These changes could have profound effects on aquatic ecosystems, and the implications of such changes are less understood. The objective of this study was to examine how future changes in precipitation and temperature translate into changes in streamflow using a physically based semidistributed model, and subsequently how changes in streamflow could potentially impact stream ecology. Streamflow parameters were examined in a New York City water supply watershed for changes from model-simulated baseline conditions to future climate scenarios (2081-2100) for ecologically relevant factors of streamflow using the Indicators of Hydrologic Alterations tool. Results indicate that earlier snowmelt and reduced snowpack advance the timing and increase the magnitude of discharge in the winter and early spring (November-March) and greatly decrease monthly streamflow later in the spring in April. Both the rise and fall rates of the hydrograph will increase resulting in increased flashiness and flow reversals primarily due to increased pulses during winter seasons. These shifts in timing of peak flows, changes in seasonal flow regimes, and changes in the magnitudes of low flow can all influence aquatic organisms and have the potential to impact stream ecology.

Recent studies have indicated that potential future climate change may lead to changes in the timing and quantity of snowpack accumulation and winter (November to April) streamflow patterns including increased streamflow and turbidity in early winter and a slight reduction in turbidity loads at the time of traditional early spring run-off. In this study, we examine the potential effects of these predicted changes on reservoir turbidity levels. Our analysis focuses on Ashokan Reservoir, NY, which can at times receive significant watershed turbidity inputs mainly from stream channel erosion from the Esopus Creek. Both measured and simulated turbidity loads and climatology are input to CE-QUAL-W2 (W2), a reservoir turbidity transport model that can simulate reservoir turbidity and other water quality parameters. The W2 model is applied to estimate the effects of hydroclimatology on effective settling rates and turbidity transport as a result of differences in reservoir thermal structure during summer and winter events. Simulations suggest that the effective settling velocity is substantially lower at low temperatures during winter time. Winter average stream flow is simulated to increase by 12% and 20%, which leads to increases in reservoir turbidity by 11% and 17% for the future period 2046–2065 and 2081–2100, respectively. From a seasonal perspective, a change in timing of peak streamflow with increased flows during the winter and slightly reduced flows during early spring leads to increased average reservoir turbidity during winter and slightly decreased in-reservoir turbidity during early spring and summer. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Rain-on-snow (ROS) runoff events are important hydro-meteorological phenomenon due to their association with flooding. The severity of ROS runoff events depends on the magnitude of the precipitation, air temperature elevation, snow water equivalent (SWE), and areal extent of the antecedent snowpack. Examining the consequences of these factors acting together creates challenges for both flood prediction and flood risk assessments. This study provides information on the spatial patterns, and seasonality of ROS events in New York. We examine the spatial and temporal variability of ROS events for water years 2004 to 2012 from SNOw Data Assimilation System products for New York. Liquid and solid precipitation, snow depth, snowmelt, SWE, maximum and minimum temperature, hydrograph characteristics, and annual peak flow are examined. There is significant positive correlation of ROS days and ROS triggered events with elevation and negative correlation of these events with increasing air temperature. Our study shows that ROS events are dominant in high elevation areas of Adirondack and Catskill regions, and their distribution varies with month. Cumulative runoffs from ROS events are generally greater than the rain-only runoff events. The majorities of annual peak flows in the study watersheds are the results of ROS events and lasted from a few days to many weeks. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Snow is a substantial component of historical annual precipitation in New York City (NYC) water supply watersheds in the Catskill Mountains, and the pattern of snow accumulation and snowmelt has important implications for the management of the reservoirs and watersheds that are part of the NYC water supply. NYC currently estimates reservoir basin-scale snowpack throughout the snow season by extrapolation from biweekly snow survey data. These estimates are complemented by the NOAA Snow Data Assimilation System (SNODAS) product. Snowpack models are used in short-term projections to support reservoir operations and long-term simulations to evaluate the potential effects of climate change, land use change, and watershed management on the water supply. We tested three snowpack estimation approaches compared with snow survey data: the lumped-parameter temperature index approach from the Generalized Watershed Loading Function (GWLF) watershed model, a spatially distributed temperature index (SDTI) model, and the spatially distributed NOAA SNODAS product. Of the spatially distributed approaches, SNODAS estimated the spatial variability of snow water equivalent (SWE) among snow survey sites within a basin better than the SDTI model. All three snowpack estimation approaches, including the lumped-parameter GWLF model, performed well in estimating basin-wide SWE for most of the basins studied. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

This study focuses on the impact of changes in winter streamflow on in-stream turbidity in the Esopus Creek watershed, one of the New York City (NYC) water supply watersheds. Projected changes in daily precipitation and air temperature from a suite of five global climate models (GCMs) and three emission scenarios for future periods 2046–2065 and 2081–2100 were downscaled for the study region. The simulated climate scenarios were used to project future streamflows using the Generalized Watershed Loading Functions—Variable Source Area (GWLFVSA) watershed model. Seasonal turbidity rating curves based on measured historical streamflow and stream turbidity were used in combination with the simulated streamflow for generating future stream turbidity scenarios. Results indicate increase in future ambient stream turbidity from November to March and a decrease during April. These results are the effects of increased winter rainfall, reduced snowfall, and a shift to early timing of spring snowmelt runoff causing an increase in streamflow during early winter. It also suggests a reduction in the traditional peak streamflow around April that is expected to occur in this region. As a result, our models simulate a consistent increase in the low to medium percentile range of turbidity values associated with low to medium range of streamflows and no apparent change in high percentile turbidity values associated with high streamflows.

High suspended sediment loads and the resulting turbidity can impact the use of surface waters for water supply and other designated uses. Changes in fluvial sediment loads influence material fluxes, aquatic geochemistry, water quality, channel morphology, and aquatic habitats. Therefore, quantifying spatial and temporal patterns in sediment loads is important both for understanding and predicting soil erosion and sediment transport processes as well as watershed-scale management of sediment and associated pollutants. A case study from the 891 km 2 Cannonsville watershed, one of the major watersheds in the New York City water supply system is presented. The objective of this study was to apply Soil and Water Assessment Tool-Water Balance (SWAT-WB), a physically based semi-distributed model to identify suspended sediment generating source areas under current conditions and to simulate potential climate change impacts on soil erosion and suspended sediment yield in the study watershed for a set of future climate scenarios representative of the period 2081–2100. Future scenarios developed using nine global climate model (GCM) simulations indicate a sharp increase in the annual rates of soil erosion although a similar result in sediment yield at the watershed outlet was not evident. Future climate related changes in soil erosion and sediment yield appeared more significant in the winter due to a shift in the timing of snowmelt and also due to a decrease in the proportion of precipitation received as snow. Although an increase in future summer precipitation was predicted, soil erosion and sediment yield appeared to decrease owing to an increase in soil moisture deficit and a decrease in water yield due to increased evapotranspiration.

The ability of Global Climate Models (GCMs) to simulate observed meteorologic and hydrologic variables is an important indicator of the reliability of these models to project future climate conditions. In this study we evaluate the ability of GCMs participating in the Intergovernmental Panel for Climate Change’s (IPCC) Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) to simulate variability in the snow water equivalent (SWE) in New York City Water Supply watersheds located northwest of NYC in the Catskill Mountains. SWE is estimated using an empirical temperature-based degree day model. Inputs to this model are either measured historical meteorological (1961-2000) data or GCM model output for the same historical period. The evaluation of the GCMs is based on a skill score developed using probability distribution functions derived from the time series of simulated snowpack. From the skill scores (SS) calculated, the GCMs are ranked based on their ability to simulate the snowpack. These results have implications for selecting a subset of GCM simulations for climate change impact assessments in New York City’s water supply. Results show that the GFDL 2.0 (gf001) model has the highest SS (0.93) and CCSM (ncc09) model has the lowest SS (0.26). Based on the SS, the GCM ensemble members are classified into three categories high, medium and low performance. The PDFs for the three performance classes show the largest between-model variability for models in low performance class. Differences difference between the means and medians of observation-based and GCM-based simulation were also greatest in the low performance class.

Snowfall is an important part of the yearly water balance for the Catskill Mountains in New York State, the location of water supply reservoirs for New York City. Recent studies have shown that the effects of climate change on the hydrology of the Catskills will most likely create (1) a decrease in the proportion of precipitation falling as snow, (2) a shift in the timing of snowmelt that will cause snowmelt-supplemented streamflow events to occur earlier in the fall and winter, and (3) a decrease in the magnitude of traditionally high April streamflow. The shift in timing of snowmelt-influenced streamflow events is measured by the winter-early spring centre of volume (WSCV), defined as the Julian Day on which half the total streamflow volume from January to May occurs. Studies of streamflow, precipitation, and temperature trends in the last 50 years have shown that the WSCV is already earlier by about 5–10 days. This study investigates the use of watershed-scale snowpack and snowmelt algorithms that are incorporated in two existing watershed water quality models, Generalized Watershed Loading Functions-Variable Source Area (GWLF-VSA) and Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT), to capture the potential effects of climate change on the timing and magnitude of streamflow during the late fall, winter, and early spring for the Catskill Mountain region. The GWLF-VSA model reasonably simulated the recent shifts in the winter streamflow timing, with simulations over the previous 50-year period yielding shifts in WSCV of 2–15 days. The SWAT model yielded similar results as the GWLF-VSA simulations. Scenarios of potential climate change 100 years in the future showed a similar shift in direction of timing winter streamflow, but at a larger magnitude than observed to date with WSCV occurring 15–20 days earlier. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Snow is an important component of the water resources of New York State and the watersheds and reservoirs of New York City (NYC) water supply. In many of the NYC water supply watersheds the hydrologic regimes of high-elevation headwaters are linked to streamflow and channel processes in low-elevation stream reaches that serve as inputs to water supply reservoirs. To better simulate this linkage there is a need to understand spatial variations in snowpack and snowmelt. Snowmelt hydrology is an important component of the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model in watersheds where spring runoff is strongly affected by melting snow. This study compares model simulated snowpack and snowmelt at different elevation bands with snow survey data available for the Cannonsville reservoir watershed. Simulations examine the effects of parameterising the SWAT snowmelt sub-model using 1, 3, and 5 elevation bands by comparison with measured snow and streamflow. Comparison between measured and simulated snowpack produced correlation coefficients ranging from 0·35 to 0·85. Simulations of both daily and seasonal streamflow, improved when using 3 elevation bands with r2 of 0·73 and ENS of 0·72. Streamflow simulations showed slightly lower model performance when basin elevation was assumed to be equal to snow survey site elevation, due to the snow survey sites being somewhat biased toward lower elevations. The effect of climate change was also evaluated and showed that under higher air temperatures in future climate change scenarios, SWAT indicated more precipitation falling as rain, increased and earlier snowmelt, and a reduced snowpack leading to a change in the pattern of streamflow, particularly during winter and early spring. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

This study focuses on the effect of projected changes in rainfall, snow accumulation and snowmelt, and consequent changes in the timing of runoff on NYC water supply system storage and operation as simulated by the NYC reservoir system Operational Analysis and Simulation of Integrated Systems (OASIS) model. The Generalized Watershed Loading Functions—Variable Source Area (GWLF-VSA)—watershed model is used with future climate scenarios derived from different General Circulation Models (GCMs) to simulate future inflows to reservoirs that are part of the New York City Water Supply System (NYCWSS). Future scenarios that use current system operation rules and demands, but changed reservoir inflows, suggest that changes in precipitation and snowmelt will affect regional water availability on a seasonal basis. The combined effect of projected increases in winter air temperatures, increased winter rain, and earlier snowmelt may result in more runoff during winter. This will cause reservoir storage levels, water releases and spills to increase during the winter and earlier reservoir refill in the spring. An overall increase in precipitation will result in a reduction in number of days the system is under drought conditions, despite increased evapotranspiration later in the year. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Dynamic modelling was used to quantify the impact of projected climate change, and potential changes in population and land use, on phosphorus (P) export from a sub-catchment in SW Ireland using the Generalised Watershed Loading Functions (GWLF) model. Overall the results indicated that the increase in annual total phosphorus loads attributable to climate change was greater than that from either population or land use change, and therefore that future climate variability will pose an increasingly significant threat to the successful long-term implementation of catchment management initiatives. The seasonal pattern in projected P export mirrored changes in streamflow, with higher rates between January and April and lower rates in summer. The potential reduction in export in summer was, however, negated when increases in population were included in simulations. A change in the slurry spreading period from that stipulated in national regulations to the months between April and September could potentially mitigate against future increases in dissolved P export in spring. The results indicate that projected changes in climate should be included when undertaking modelling exercises in support of decision making for catchment management plans.

Planners advocate best management practices (BMPs) to reduce loss of sediment and nutrients in agricultural areas. However, the scientific community lacks tools that use readily available data to investigate the relationships between BMPs and their spatial locations and water quality. In rural, humid regions where runoff is associated with saturation-excess processes from variable source areas (VSAs), BMPs are potentially most effective when they are located in areas that produce the majority of the runoff. Thus, two critical elements necessary to predict the water quality impact of BMPs include correct identification of VSAs and accurate predictions of nutrient reduction due to particular BMPs. The objective of this research was to determine the effectiveness of BMPs using the Variable Source Loading Function (VSLF) model, which captures the spatial and temporal evolutions of VSAs in the landscape. Data from a long-term monitoring campaign on a 164-ha farm in the New York City source watersheds in the Catskills Mountains of New York state were used to evaluate the effectiveness of a range of BMPs. The data spanned an 11-year period over which a suite of BMPs, including a nutrient management plan, riparian buffers, filter strips and fencing, was installed to reduce phosphorus (P) loading. Despite its simplicity, VSLF predicted the spatial distribution of runoff producing areas well. Dissolved P reductions were simulated well by using calibrated reduction factors for various BMPs in the VSLF model. Total P losses decreased only after cattle crossings were installed in the creek. The results demonstrated that BMPs, when sited with respect to VSAs, reduce P loss from agricultural watersheds, providing useful information for targeted water quality management.

Most widely used nonpoint source models associate pollutant loads almost exclusively with land use via pollutant export coefficients and some kind of runoff coefficient. Not surprisingly, the range of management options suggested by such models'simulations are largely linked to changes in land use. This problem is addressed by developing models of dissolved phosphorus DP mobility for specific agricultural sources: manure, fertilizers, soil/plant complexes, and impervious surfaces and those associated with baseflow P loads. These models are coupled with a spatially distributed hydrologic model, the variable source loading function model. The model was applied to a small 164 ha, upstate New York watershed and tested against 1996-2000 stream flow and DP data. The source-specific model required no direct calibration of parameters compared to eight parameters needed in a similar export coefficient type model. Both models predicted stream DP loads well but the source-specific model provided additional insights into, for example, how much DP in the stream was derived from accumulated soil P as opposed to direct leaching from manure. This type of information is necessary to develop and assess a full range of options for best management practices, especially those that involve nonstatic activities such as manure spreading.

A simple, rapid, and flexible modelling approach was applied to explore the impacts of climate change on hydrologic inputs and consequent implications for nutrient loading to Lake Malaren, Sweden using a loading function model (GWLF). The first step in the process was to adapt the model for use in a large and complex Swedish catchment. We focused on the Galten basin with four rivers draining into the western region of Malaren. The catchment model was calibrated and tested using long-term historical data for river discharge and dissolved nutrients (N, P). Then multiple regional climate model simulation results were downscaled to the local catchment level, and used to simulate possible hydrological and nutrient loading responses to warmer world scenarios. Climate change projections for the rivers of Galten basin show profound changes in the timing of discharge and nutrient delivery due to increased winter precipitation and earlier snow melt. Impacts on total annual discharge and load are minimal, but the alteration in river flow regime and the timing of nutrient delivery for future climate scenarios is strikingly different from historical conditions.

Many water quality models use some form of the Natural Resources Conservation Services (formerly Soil Conservation Service) curve number (CN) equation to predict storm runoff in ways that implicitly assume an infiltration-excess response to rainfall. Because of this, these models may fail to predict variable source areas (VSAs) correctly, i.e. where runoff is typically generated in rural, humid regions. In this study, the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model was re-conceptualized to distribute overland flow in ways consistent with VSA hydrology by modifying how the CN and available water content were defined; the new modeling approach is called SWAT-VSA. Both SWAT and SWAT-VSA were applied to a sub-watershed in the Cannonsville basin in upstate New York to compare model predictions of integrated and distributed responses, including surface runoff, shallowly perched water table depth, and stream phosphorus loads against direct measures. Event runoff was predicted similarly well for SWAT-VSA and SWAT. However, the distribution of shallowly perched water table depth was predicted better by SWAT-VSA and it is this shallow groundwater that governs VSAs. Event based dissolved phosphorus export from the watershed was also predicted better by SWAT-VSA, presumably because the distribution of runoff source areas was better predicted particularly from areas where manure was applied. This has important consequences for using models to evaluate and guide watershed management because correctly predicting where runoff is generated is critical to locating best management practices to control non-point source pollution.

Many water quality models use some form of the curve number (CN) equation developed by the Soil Conservation Service (SCS; U.S. Depart of Agriculture) to predict storm runoff from watersheds based on an infiltration-excess response to rainfall. However, in humid, well-vegetated areas with shallow soils, such as in the northeastern USA, the predominant runoff generating mechanism is saturation-excess on variable source areas (VSAs). We reconceptualized the SCS–CN equation for VSAs, and incorporated it into the General Watershed Loading Function (GWLF) model. The new version of GWLF, named the Variable Source Loading Function (VSLF) model, simulates the watershed runoff response to rainfall using the standard SCS–CN equation, but spatially distributes the runoff response according to a soil wetness index. We spatially validated VSLF runoff predictions and compared VSLF to GWLF for a subwatershed of the New York City Water Supply System. The spatial distribution of runoff from VSLF is more physically realistic than the estimates from GWLF. This has important consequences for water quality modeling, and for the use of models to evaluate and guide watershed management, because correctly predicting the coincidence of runoff generation and pollutant sources is critical to simulating non-point source (NPS) pollution transported by runoff. Copyright  2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Impacts of projected climate change on phosphorus and sediment loadings for a New York City water supply reservoir.

The use of watershed models as cost-effective tools to quantify the impact of conservation practices on water quality is often constrained by lack of data for model parameterization. This study uses short-term (3 years) detailed monitoring data to guide spatially distributed model parameterization and modeling analysis for suspended sediment in the Upper Esopus Creek Watershed (UECW) that is part of the New York City water supply. The calibrated Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model simulated suspended sediment loading from tributary sub-basins and at the watershed outlet that were comparable to field measurements. Model simulations estimated that stream channels contributed the majority (85%) of stream sediment in the study watershed followed by upland erosion (11%) and point sources (4%), consistent with previous estimates and field observations. Long-term (12 years) simulation of the calibrated model was used to apportion the average annual sediment yields from tributary sub-basins which ranged between 12 and 161 t km(-2) year(-1). Model simulations were also used to understand the inter-annual variability and seasonality in suspended sediment loading in the study watershed. We demonstrate the wider applicability of short-term detailed monitoring for model parameterization and calibration, and long-term simulation of water quality using the SWAT model.

A previous modeling study used the Generalized Watershed Loading Functions (GWLF) model to simulate stream-flow, and nutrient and sediment loads to Cannonsville Reservoir from the West Branch Delaware River (WBDR). We made several model revisions, calibrated key parameters, and tested the original GWLF model and a revised GWLF model using more recent data. Model revisions included: addition of unsaturated leakage between unsaturated and saturated subsurface reservoirs; revised timing of sediment export; inclusion of urban sediments and dissolved nutrients; tracking of particulate nutrients from point sources; and revised timing of septic system loads. The revision of sediment yield timing resulted in significant improvements in monthly sediment and particulate phosphorus predictions as compared to the original model. Addition of unsaturated leakage improved hydrologic predictions during low flow months. The other model changes improve realism without adding significant model complexity or data requirements. Goodness of fit of revised model predictions versus stream measurements, as measured by the Nash-Sutcliff coefficient of model efficiency, exceeded 0.8 for streamflow-0.7 for sediment yield and dissolved nitrogen (N) and 0.6 for particulate and dissolved phosphorus (P). The revised GWLF model, with limited calibration, provides reasonable estimates of monthly streamflow, and nutrient and sediment loads in the Cannonsville watershed.

Mutations in the homeotic gene, Ultrabithorax (Ubx), result in the transformation of the third thoracic (T3) segment into the second thoracic (T2) segment. Although it has been well established that these mutations have striking effects on adult epidermal structures in T3, the effect of these mutations on the adult musculature has been controversial. In this study, a series of Ubx regulatory mutations, anterobithorax, bithorax, postbithorax, and bithoraxoid, as well as combinations of these alleles were used to reevaluate the role of Ubx in the patterning of the T3 musculature. Homeotic indirect and direct flight muscles (IFMs and DFMs) were identified in the transformed T3 segment of all alleles and allelic combinations with the exception of postbithorax. We critically evaluated the pattern and amount of these muscles and found that while the amount and/or quality of homeotic IFMs increased, the amount of homeotic DFMs did not vary significantly as the severity of the ectodermal transformation increased. Because Ubx is not expressed in the adult mesoderm of T3, these results suggest that inductive cues play a major role in the patterning of adult thoracic muscles. We provide a model that illustrates the central role of inductive cues in generating the final adult muscle pattern in the thorax.

A strategy for the application of linked watershed and reservoir models in the analysis of water quality management proposals for a water supply reservoir is presented. This strategy is based on the use of a long-term historical record of meteorological data, so that die predicted changes in water quality may be evaluated by considering the variations in streamflow, material loading, reservoir heat transfer and mixing associated with natural variations in meteorological conditions. Model simulations for a baseline condition and for several management proposals involving point source nutrient control, nonpoint source nutrient reduction, and reservoir operations are presented. The predictions are presented as distributions of the frequency of occurrence of selected annual statistics of nutrient loading, reservoir stratification, and reservoir water quality. Simulations for Cannonsville Reservoir indicate that reductions in phosphorus loading from wastewater treatment plants in the watershed would h...

Many problems associated with quality programmes result from increased process complexity. Mapping the correlation between the complexity of a process and the organizational level at which it must be executed could point the way to the future direction of total quality management.

The cycling of carbon in terrestrial ecosystems is closely coupled with the cycling of water. An important mechanism connecting ecological and hydrological processes in terrestrial ecosystems is lateral flow of water along landscapes. Few studies, however, have examined explicitly how consideration of water routing affects simulated water and carbon dynamics in terrestrial ecosystems. The objective of this study is to explore how consideration of water routing in a process-based hydroecological model affects simulated water and carbon dynamics. To achieve that end, we rasterized the regional hydroecological simulation systems (RHESSys) and employed the rasterized RHESSys (R-RHESSys) in a forested watershed. We performed and compared two contrasting simulations, one with and another without water routing. We found that R-RHESSys is able to correctly simulate major hydrological and ecological variables regardless of whether water routing is considered. When water routing was neglected, however, soil water table depth and saturation deficit were simulated to be smaller and spatially more homogeneous. As a result, evaporation, forest productivity and soil heterotrophic respiration also were simulated to be spatially more homogeneous compared to simulation with water routing. When averaged for the entire watershed, however, differences in simulated water and carbon fluxes are not significant between the two simulations. Overall, the study demonstrated that consideration of water routing enabled R-RHESSys to better capture our preconception of the spatial patterns of water table depth and saturation deficit across the watershed. Because the spatial pattern of soil moisture is fundamental to water efflux from land to the atmosphere, forest productivity and soil microbial activity, ecosystem and carbon cycle models, therefore, need to explicitly represent water routing in order to accurately quantify the magnitudes and patterns of water and carbon fluxes in terrestrial ecosystems.

Scaling-up sediment transport has been problematic because most sediment loss models (e.g., the Universal Soil Loss Equation) are developed using data from small plots where runoff is generated by infiltration excess. However, in most watersheds, runoff is produced by saturation excess processes. In this article, we improve an earlier saturation excess erosion model that was only tested on a limited basis, in which runoff and erosion originated from periodically saturated and severely degraded areas, and apply it to five watersheds over a wider geographical area. The erosion model is based on a semi-distributed hydrology model that calculates saturation excess runoff, interflow, and baseflow. In the development of the erosion model, a linear relationship between sediment concentration and velocity in surface runoff is assumed. Baseflow and interflow are sediment free. Initially during the rainy season in Ethiopia, when the fields are being plowed, the sediment concentration in the river is limited by the ability of the surface runoff to move sediment. Later in the season, the sediment concentration becomes limited by the availability of sediment. To show the general applicability of the Saturation Excess Erosion Model (SEEModel), the model was tested for watersheds located 10,000 km apart, in the U. S. and in Ethiopia. In the Ethiopian highlands, we simulated the 1.1 km(2) Anjeni watershed, the 4.8 km(2) Andit Tid watershed, the 4.0 km(2) Enkulal watershed, and the 174,000 km(2) Blue Nile basin. In the Catskill Mountains in New York State, the sediment concentrations were simulated in the 493 km(2) upper Esopus Creek watershed. Discharge and sediment concentration averaged over 1 to 10 days were well simulated over the range of scales with comparable parameter sets. The Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE) values for the validation runs for the stream discharge were between 0.77 and 0.92. Sediment concentrations had NSE values ranging from 0.56 to 0.86 using only four calibrated sediment parameters together with the subsurface and surface runoff discharges calculated by the hydrology model. The model results suggest that correctly predicting both surface runoff and subsurface flow is an important step in simulating sediment concentrations. International Foundation for Science (IFS) Higher Education for Development (HED) USDA International Science and Education (ISE) program

To determine the role played by the giant fiber interneurons (GFs) in coordinating the jumping stages of visually elicited and olfactory-induced flight initiation we have recorded extracellularly from the cervical connective nerve during flight initiation. A spike is recorded from the cervical connective upon brain stimulation that has the same threshold as does activation of the tergotrochanteral muscle (TTM) and dorsal longitudinal muscles (DLMs). A consistent time interval occurs between the spike and activation of the TTM. Thus, the spike probably results from activity in the GFs. The time intervals between the spike and activation of the TTM during GF stimulation and visually elicited flight initiation are similar. These results suggest that the GFs coordinate the activation of the TTM and DLMs during the jumping stage of visually elicited flight initiation. A spike is also recorded from the cervical connective during olfactory-induced flight initiations, but its shape and the time interval between it and activation of the TTM is different from that observed during GF stimulation. Although some olfactory-induced flight initiations exhibit a pattern of muscle activation indistinguishable from that evoked by GF stimulation, our results indicate that, regardless of the pattern of muscle activation, olfactory-induced flight initiations are not coordinated by the GF circuit. The stereotypic sequence and timing of activation of TTM and DLMs characteristic of the GF pathway can, therefore, be evoked by neurons other than those constituting the GF pathway.

Using high speed cinematography and videography, we determined that unrestrained Drosophila melanogaster can initiate flight in two different ways, which we have designated Type 1 and Type 2 flight initiation. Type 1 behaviour is executed when the fly initiates flight ‘voluntarily’. Type 2 behaviour is executed in response to a visual stimulus and is presumably an escape response. During both types of flight initiation, the fly pushes off from the substratum using only the mesothoracic legs. The mesothoracic legs extend at the coxo-trochanteric, femoro-tibial and tibio-metatarsal joints. Although the movements of the legs are similar during both Type 1 and Type 2 flight initiation, the movements of the wings are different. Prior to the onset of leg extension, during Type 1 flight initiation, the wings are raised and rotated from their resting position to a preflight position dorsal to the thorax. The wings are held in this upright position for several milliseconds and then rapidly depressed during leg extension. Prior to Type 2 flight initiation, by contrast, the wings are not raised and rotated, nor are the wings depressed during leg extension. Thus Type 1 flight initiation involves simultaneous leg extension and wing depression, whereas Type 2 flight initiation involves only leg extension.

The anatomy of the motor neurons innervating six direct flight muscles in Drosophila melanogaster has been investigated by using a horseradish peroxidase backfilling technique. The somata of these motor neurons are arranged in two distinct clusters ipsilateral to the muscle they innervate. One cluster of cell bodies is located in the ventrolateral region between the prothoracic neuromere and the mesothoracic leg-related neuropil and the other is situated dorsally and posteriorly to the mesothoracic leg-related neuropil. Axons from somata in the ventrolateral cluster run in the anterior dorsal mesothoracic nerve, while axons from somata in the other cluster run in the mesothoracic accessory nerve. This distribution of somata and axons is discussed in the light of the morphological similarity and proximity of these functionally related muscles. On the basis of the branching patterns of their neurites, direct flight muscle motor neurons can be classified as stubbly, fibrous or tufted. The terminal arborizations of the motor neurons over the direct flight muscles are also morphologically specialized. Both the central and the peripheral morphological specializations of the direct flight muscle motor neurons correlate with the activity patterns exhibited by their associated muscles during flight and courtship song.

[1] A variety of methods are available to estimate values of meteorological variables at future times and at spatial scales that are appropriate for local climate change impact assessment. One commonly used method is Change Factor Methodology (CFM), sometimes referred to as delta change factor methodology. Although more sophisticated methods exist, CFM is still widely applicable and used in impact analysis studies. While there are a number of different ways by which change factors (CFs) can be calculated and used to estimate future climate scenarios, there are no clear guidelines available in the literature to decide which methodologies are most suitable for different applications. In this study several categories of CFM (additive versus multiplicative and single versus multiple) for a number of climate variables are compared and contrasted. The study employs several theoretical case studies, as well as a real example from Cannonsville watershed, which supplies water to New York City, USA. Results show that in cases when the frequency distribution of Global Climate Model (GCM) baseline climate is close to the frequency distribution of observed climate, or when the frequency distribution of GCM future climate is close to the frequency distribution of GCM baseline climate, additive and multiplicative single CFMs provide comparable results. Two options to guide the choice of CFM are

Each Drosophila segment exhibits specific patterns of epidermal cells, muscles, and neurons. Mutations in the homeotic genes of the bithorax-complex cause transformations of these patterns. Whereas abundant information exists concerning homeotic transformation of epidermis, transformations of muscles and motor neurons have been largely unexplored. An important indication of neuromuscular transformation in a segment is the expression of novel behavioral and physiological functions within that segment. We have resolved some of the segmental identities of neuromuscular elements in the transformed metathorax of the bithorax-complex mutant, abx bx3 pbx/Df(3R) P2, and have established the presence of a duplicated neural pathway for the escape-jump response within that segment. Although we observed frequent homeotic transformation of neural elements and the tergotrochanteral ("jump") muscle in mutants, corresponding transformation of flight muscles was infrequent, indicating that the presence of a motor neuron was not always sufficient to induce or determine the development of its target muscle.

bendless- (ben-) is an X chromosome mutation in Drosophila melanogaster, known to alter patterns of connections in the CNS and thus modify behavior (Thomas and Wyman, 1984). We report that in addition to its CNS effects, ben- has pleiotropic phenotypes affecting thoracic muscle patterning, pupal mortality, and post-eclosional mobility. The tergal depressor of the trochanter (TDT) normally attaches ventrally to an apodeme on the trochanter and dorsally to the lateral scutum just posterior to the intrascutal suture. In ben- individuals, TDT may attach anywhere within the boundaries of the attachment areas for TDT and dorsoventral muscles I (DVM I) and II (DVM II). Furthermore, TDT may completely lack a dorsal attachment, although it still maintains a ventral attachment. DVMs may also attach abnormally to dorsal sites normally occupied by an adjacent DVM, or may be entirely eliminated. DVM loss occurs independently of the position or presence of TDT dorsal attachment. The cytology of ben- TDT is altered. Muscles may have fibers that are swollen and stain abnormally. Other fibers may have large, axially aligned holes. ben- flies have an increased likelihood of failing to eclose and, upon eclosion, show impaired mobility. We describe several possible mechanisms for the ben- developmental defects and discuss this mutation in light of its evolutionary significance.

Dissolved organic carbon (DOC) from peat soils has implications both for the ecology of receiving waters and for the quality and treatment costs of water used for human consumption. Fluxes of DOC from peat soils are also relevant in the context of the global carbon cycle. Chapter 12 in this volume has reviewed the evidence for the effects of different environmental factors on the decomposition of peat soils and the export of DOC, drawing on literature and long-term data acquired from a number of European sites. The conclusion from this and many other studies is that, although there may be other influences such as land management and recovery from acid deposition, climate factors are a major player in both the short-term variability and longer-term trends seen in measured DOC concentrations and fluxes. Given the importance of DOC and likely future changes in climate, it is timely and opportune to make use of our current understanding to project possible future DOC.

The transfer of phosphorus from terrestrial to aquatic ecosystems is a key route through which climate can influence aquatic ecosystems. A number of climatic factors interact in complex ways to regulate the transfer of phosphorus and modulate its ecological effects on downstream lakes and reservoirs. Processes influencing both the amount and timing of phosphorus export from terrestrial watersheds must be quantified before we can assess the direct and indirect effects of the weather on the supply and recycling of phosphorus. Simulation of the export of phosphorus from the terrestrial environment is complicated by the fact that it is difficult to describe seasonal and inter-annual variations by existing process-based and empirical models. These variations are also strongly influenced by the history of the weather and by the frequency of extreme weather events. For example, the effects of storm runoff on the export of phosphorus can be very sensitive to levels of soil saturation and soil moisture, which are in turn influenced by the past history of precipitation and evapotranspiration. Inclusion of effects such as these is impossible using simple empirical models and difficult using process based models when model parameterization changes in response to antecedent conditions.

The influence of catchment hydrology on the volume and timing of water inputs to waterbodies, and on the material loads of nutrients, sediment, and pollutants is central to any assessment of the impact of climate change on lakes. Changes in the timing and amount of precipitation, particularly when coupled with a change in air temperature, influence all the major components of the hydrological cycle, including evapotranspiration, snow dynamics, soil moisture, groundwater storage, baseflow, surface runoff, and streamflow.

Human-induced changes in the nitrogen cycle due to the increased use of artificial fertilisers, the cultivation of nitrogen-fixing crops and atmospheric deposition have made nitrogen pollution to surface waters a long-standing cause for concern. In Europe, legislation has been introduced to minimise the risk of water quality degradation from excessive nitrogen inputs e.g., the European Union Nitrates Directive (EU, 1991), Drinking Water Directive (EU, 1998) and Water Framework Directive (EU, 2000). Coastal regions in particular have been an important focus, since coastal eutrophication has been attributed to increased fluxes of nitrogen from the landscape (Howarth et al., 1996; Boesch et al., 2006). While nitrogen is typically not the limiting nutrient in inland waters, increases in the nitrogen supply to rivers and lakes can impact the N:P ratio, influence the structure of aquatic food webs (Elser and Urabe, 1999; Arbuckle and Downing, 2001), regulate the seasonal development of phytoplankton (Van den Brink et al., 1993) and promote the growth of aquatic macrophytes (Kirchmann et al., 2004).

Forty-eight of 52 (92%) agencies contracted with the New York City Administration for Children's Services (ACS) responded to a survey about problematic sexualized behaviors (PSB) of children in different levels of care within the child welfare system. Results revealed that almost all agencies reported PSB within their foster boarding home and residential treatment centers. A majority of agencies perceived PSB to be a significant problem for which staff and families were not sufficiently trained. These findings highlight many avenues for advocacy, clinical intervention, and staff development.