Search

Traditional calendars document seasonal cycles and the communities’ relationships to their biophysical environment and are often used by communities, particularly subsistence farmers, to synchronize their livelihood activities with the timing of ecological processes. Because the timing of these ecological processes is not always consistent from year to year, the use of traditional seasonal calendars can help communities to cope with climate variability, particularly when biophysical phenomena become less predictable in relation to the Gregorian calendar, as has been observed in relation to climate change. Although the structure and content of seasonal calendars vary across the Pacific Ocean region, for many indigenous communities, knowledge of seasonal calendars can increase their capacity to cope with climate variability and change. To increase the effectiveness of their products and enhance their relevance to and uptake by the community, several Pacific meteorological services are now using traditional seasonal calendars in their climate communication and education, including in forecasts and warnings. The use of a participatory approach resulted in strong relationships and improved dialogues. Local communities appreciated assistance in enabling their knowledge to become available to future generations, and its inclusion in meteorological service products makes these products more accessible and relevant to community members.

In most countries, weather and seasonal climate forecasts are available through national meteorological services (NMSs). However, uptake of NMS forecasts in remote Pacific communities can be limited, particularly those relating to expected impacts. To address this, NMSs need a clearer understanding of the types of information local communities currently use and how this information is received, to enable them to modify their products and their delivery to better meet community needs. Structured community interviews across four Pacific countries (Niue, Solomon Islands, Tonga and Vanuatu) were undertaken by NMSs and their in-country partners. These interviews highlighted that remote communities mainly relied on weather and climate forecasts based on traditional knowledge (TK) alone or in combination with contemporary (NMS) forecasts. Many who had access to both forecasts systems indicated that they only sourced contemporary forecasts in the lead up to and during extreme events, particularly cyclones, to assist their decision-making. Recent extreme events in the Pacific have shown that self-reliant communities, with knowledge of traditional ways of forecasting, and responding to climate extremes, experience several benefits including reduced social-economic disruption and lower than expected death rates, particularly when combined with contemporary warnings. Therefore, there is a need to better understand the role of local traditional knowledge-based forecasts and for NMSs to work towards improving the content and communication of their forecasts to enable communities to take advantage of all available forecast information. For effective risk reduction, warnings and responses should therefore complement contemporary forecasts, rather than replace, TK-based forecasts.

Designing monitoring programs to detect impending climate change effects on marine vertebrates is challenging, as data sufficient for large-scale power analysis is severely limited, yet sensitivity and response time of potential indicator variables are key uncertainties. In the absence of such data, the experience of researchers can be used to inform decision making on monitoring design to detect impacts of climate change. We used expert elicitation to identify ecological traits of seabirds and marine mammals that have or were expected to respond to climate change. We analyzed the projected biological changes for five general categories of ecological traits that have been shown elsewhere to relate to climate signals: foraging and diet, body mass, breeding phenology, breeding success, and population size. Based on analysis of 106 traits in the five categories, 29 experts rated foraging- and diet-related traits to be the most responsive to climate change, although predictions for traits in this category were also the most variable across experts. Body mass related traits were projected to change almost as frequently, but with much lower variance. The timespan over which experts expected to see change also varied between trait categories. Foraging success was expected to respond most quickly. Considering sensitivity and response rate, we predict that the duration of foraging trips will be the best climate change indicator among the 106 traits. When combined with cost estimates, our results allow managers to choose ecological indicators that deliver information on system response in the most cost-effective manner.

Traditional knowledge (TK) on weather and climate is an important aspect of community life in the Pacific. Used for generations, this knowledge is derived from observing biological and meteorological variables and contributes to building community resilience to weather extremes. Most of this knowledge is passed on orally and is in danger of being lost due to generational changes, leading communities to seek to preserve the knowledge in other ways.This paper provides guidance on the successful collection and documentation of weather and climate TK in the Pacific by considering four key components: the legal and national context, in-country partnerships, the role of community, and national and community protocols. At the regional level legislation focuses on the protection of culture/TK and intellectual property, which are linked to national policies and laws. Within the national context consideration of the governance structure is critical, including obtaining approvals to conduct the studies. The next consideration is developing partnerships to establish and implement the projects, including working with appropriate ministries, media, donor organizations, and community groups. Community involvement in all aspects of the projects is critical, built on trust between partners and ensuring outputs are aligned with community needs. Following community protocols and procedures allows for effective sharing of TK. We document common protocols that were piloted and tested across four Pacific Island nations, illustrating similarities and differences between cultural groups, including recognizing cultural sensitivities and ensuring custodian rights are protected.

In most countries, national meteorological services either generate or have access to seasonal climate forecasts. However, in a number of regions, the uptake of these forecasts by local communities can be limited, with the locals instead relying on traditional knowledge to make their climate forecasts. Both approaches to seasonal climate forecasting have benefits, and the incorporation of traditional forecast methods into contemporary forecast systems can lead to forecasts that are locally relevant and better trusted by the users. This in turn could significantly improve the communication and application of climate information, especially to remote communities. A number of different methodologies have been proposed for combining these forecasts. Through considering the benefits and limitations of each approach, practical recommendations are provided on selecting a method, in the form of a decision framework, that takes into consideration both user and provider needs. The framework comprises four main decision points: 1) consideration of the level of involvement of traditional-knowledge experts or the community that is required, 2) existing levels of traditional knowledge of climate forecasting and its level of cultural sensitivity, 3) the availability of long-term data—both traditional-knowledge and contemporary-forecast components, and 4) the level of resourcing available. No one method is suitable for everyone and every situation; however, the decision framework helps to select the most appropriate method for a given situation.

Growing interest in traditional knowledge (TK), particularly in relation to the prediction of weather or climate extremes, raises issues concerning the appropriate storage and management of the information collected. The Traditional Knowledge Database (TK Database) for the storage and use of TK associated with weather and climate prediction in the Pacific was designed with the following principles in mind: (1) preservation of the knowledge, maintaining cultural context wherever possible; (2) respect for intellectual property and cultural sensitivities around data sharing and use; (3) appropriate system design, accounting for ongoing costs of system maintenance and often intermittent Internet access; and (4) moving beyond data preservation to ensure continued use and growth of the TK. The TK Database was successfully deployed to four countries in the south Pacific and is regularly used by their national meteorological services, and partner organizations, both to preserve TK related to weather and climate and as a tool to assist in monitoring the TK indicators. As the first database of its kind, the TK Database fills a critical gap in the appropriate storage and application of TK and provides an important foundation for future developments.

Background Malaria remains a challenge in Solomon Islands, despite government efforts to implement a coordinated control programme. This programme resulted in a dramatic decrease in the number of cases and mortality however, malaria incidence remains high in the three most populated provinces. Anopheles farauti is the primary malaria vector and a better understanding of the spatial patterns parasite transmission is required in order to implement effective control measures. Previous entomological studies provide information on the ecological preferences of An. farauti but this information has never before been gathered and “translated” in useful tools as maps that provide information at both the national level and at the scale of villages, thus enabling local targeted control measures. Methods A literature review and consultation with entomology experts were used to determine and select environmental preferences of An. farauti. Remote sensing images were processed to translate these preferences into geolocated information to allow them to be used as the basis for a Transmission Suitability Index (TSI). Validation was developed from independent previous entomological studies with georeferenced locations of An. farauti. Then, TSI was autoscaled to ten classes for mapping. Results Key environmental preferences for the An. farauti were: distance to coastline, elevation, and availability of water sources. Based on these variables, a model was developed to provide a TSI. This TSI was developed using GIS and remote sensing image processing, resulting in maps and GIS raster layer for all the eight provinces and Honiara City at a 250 m spatial resolution. For a TSI ranging from 0 as not suitable to 13 as most suitable, all the previous collections of An. farauti had mean TSI value between 9 and 11 and were significantly higher than where the vector was searched for and absent. Resulting maps were provided after autoscaling the TSI into ten classes from 0 to 9 for visual clarity. Conclusions The TSI model developed here provides useful predictions of likely malaria transmission larval sources based on the environmental preferences of the mosquito, An. farauti. These predictions can provide sufficient lead-time for agencies to target malaria prevention and control measures and can assist with effective deployment of limited resources. As the model is built on the known environmental preferences of An. farauti, the model should be completed and updated as soon as new information is available. Because the model did not include any other malaria transmission factors such as care availability, diagnostic time, treatment, prevention, and entomological parameters other than the ecological preferences neither, our suitability mapping represents the upper bound of transmission areas. The results of this study can now being used as the basis of a malaria monitoring system which has been jointly implemented by the Solomon Islands National Vector Borne Disease Control Programme, the Solomon Islands Meteorological Services and the Australian Bureau of Meteorology. The TSI model development method can be applied to other regions of the world where this mosquito occurs and could be adapted for other species.

Long-term datasets needed to detect the impacts of global change on southern biodiversity are still scarce and often incomplete, challenging adaptation planning and conservation management. Biological data are probably most limited in arid countries and from the oceans, where natural environmental variability (‘noise’) means that long time series are required to detect the ‘signal’ of directional change. Significant national and international investment and collaboration are needed for most southern nations to reliably track biodiversity trends and improve conservation adaptation to rapid climate change. Emerging early warning systems for biodiversity, incorporating regional environmental change drivers, citizen science and regional partnerships, can all help to compensate for existing information gaps and contribute to adaptation planning.

Advances in computing power and infrastructure, increases in the number and size of ecological and environmental datasets, and the number and type of data collection methods, are revolutionizing the field of Ecology. To integrate these advances, virtual laboratories offer a unique tool to facilitate, expedite, and accelerate research into the impacts of climate change on biodiversity. We introduce the uniquely cloud-based Biodiversity and Climate Change Virtual Laboratory (BCCVL), which provides access to numerous species distribution modelling tools; a large and growing collection of biological, climate, and other environmental datasets; and a variety of experiment types to conduct research into the impact of climate change on biodiversity.Users can upload and share datasets, potentially increasing collaboration, cross-fertilisation of ideas, and innovation among the user community. Feedback confirms that the BCCVL's goals of lowering the technical requirements for species distribution modelling, and reducing time spent on such research, are being met. BCCVL facilitates and expedites modelling of climate change's impact on biodiversity.BCCVL integrates numerous species distribution modelling tools and myriad datasets.BCCVL negates the need for advanced programming and modelling expertise.BCCVL allows for increases in productivity and complexity of experimental design.BCCVL facilitates the sharing of data promoting transparency in the research process.

Background Malaria remains a challenge in Solomon Islands, despite government efforts to implement a coordinated control programme. This programme resulted in a dramatic decrease in the number of cases and mortality however, malaria incidence remains high in the three most populated provinces. Anopheles farauti is the primary malaria vector and a better understanding of the spatial patterns parasite transmission is required in order to implement effective control measures. Previous entomological studies provide information on the ecological preferences of An. farauti but this information has never before been gathered and “translated” in useful tools as maps that provide information at both the national level and at the scale of villages, thus enabling local targeted control measures. Methods A literature review and consultation with entomology experts were used to determine and select environmental preferences of An. farauti. Remote sensing images were processed to translate these preferences into geolocated information to allow them to be used as the basis for a Transmission Suitability Index (TSI). Validation was developed from independent previous entomological studies with georeferenced locations of An. farauti. Then, TSI was autoscaled to ten classes for mapping. Results Key environmental preferences for the An. farauti were: distance to coastline, elevation, and availability of water sources. Based on these variables, a model was developed to provide a TSI. This TSI was developed using GIS and remote sensing image processing, resulting in maps and GIS raster layer for all the eight provinces and Honiara City at a 250 m spatial resolution. For a TSI ranging from 0 as not suitable to 13 as most suitable, all the previous collections of An. farauti had mean TSI value between 9 and 11 and were significantly higher than where the vector was searched for and absent. Resulting maps were provided after autoscaling the TSI into ten classes from 0 to 9 for visual clarity. Conclusions The TSI model developed here provides useful predictions of likely malaria transmission larval sources based on the environmental preferences of the mosquito, An. farauti. These predictions can provide sufficient lead-time for agencies to target malaria prevention and control measures and can assist with effective deployment of limited resources. As the model is built on the known environmental preferences of An. farauti, the model should be completed and updated as soon as new information is available. Because the model did not include any other malaria transmission factors such as care availability, diagnostic time, treatment, prevention, and entomological parameters other than the ecological preferences neither, our suitability mapping represents the upper bound of transmission areas. The results of this study can now being used as the basis of a malaria monitoring system which has been jointly implemented by the Solomon Islands National Vector Borne Disease Control Programme, the Solomon Islands Meteorological Services and the Australian Bureau of Meteorology. The TSI model development method can be applied to other regions of the world where this mosquito occurs and could be adapted for other species.

Adaptation options in response to climate impact scenarios for marine mammals and seabirds were developed based on the IPCC vulnerability framework. Under this framework, vulnerability to the physical effects of climate change can be reduced by adaptation options that reduce exposure of individuals, reduce the sensitivity of individuals, and increase the adaptive capacity of individual/species to cope with climate change. We evaluated options in each vulnerability category with three screening tools collectively forming an approach we term sequential adaptation prioritization for species. These tools were designed to evaluate (i) technical aspects (cost-benefit-risk, CBR), (ii) institutional barriers, and (iii) potential social acceptability. The CBR tool identified which adaptation options were high cost and low benefit, might be discarded, and which were high benefit and low cost, might be rapidly implemented (depending on risk). Low cost and low benefit options might not be pursued, while those that are high cost, but high benefit deserve further attention. Even with technical merit, adaptation options can fail because of institutional problems with implementation. The second evaluation tool, based on the conceptual framework on barriers to effective climate adaptation, identifies where barriers may exist, and leads to strategies for overcoming them. Finally, adaptation options may not be acceptable to society at large, or resisted by vocal opponents or groups. The social acceptability tool identifies potentially contested options, which may be useful to managers charged with implementing adaptation options. Social acceptability, as scored by experts, differed from acceptability scored by the public, indicating the need to involve the public in assessing this aspect. Scores from each tool for each scenario can be combined to rank the suite of adaptation options. This approach provides useful tools to assist conservation managers in selecting from a wide range of adaptation strategies; the methodology is also applicable to other conservation sectors.

Indigenous people in Pacific Island countries (PICs) often use their knowledge of the environment, acquired through generations of holistic observational practices and experimental learning, to make meteorological forecasts. Such knowledge systems are now recognized by several institutions, including the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, as an important participatory forecast approach for decision making, particularly at a farm level. In this article, the authors show that indigenous knowledge of weather and seasonal climate forecasting is a crucial component of a potential strategy for making farming-related decisions and reducing vulnerability to environmental hazards.

Climate and competition influence seabird population size yet are rarely considered simultaneously. Here, we consider the influence of climate on nominal abundance trends, and test for evidence of interspecific competition based on 31 yr of count data from 3 co-occurring gull spe- cies in southeastern Tasmania. The silver gull Chroicocephalus novaehollandiae and Pacific gull Larus pacificus are native, while the kelp gull L. dominicanus established in Tasmania from New Zealand in the 1950s. We applied population growth models where either growth rate or carrying capacity was a function of both large-scale climate variables and local conditions. For the kelp gull, a null model without any climate variables was selected, consistent with recent population establishment and increase. For the 2 native species, climate covariates were included, and for both, wind speed was important; for Pacific gulls, the El Nino-Southern Oscillation and regional sea surface temperature were also included in the selected model. These results are consistent with bottom-up forcing in the southeastern Tasmanian marine ecosystem; increased wind forcing leads to increased productivity and higher abundance of an important euphausiid prey species (Nyctiphanes australis). In years with lower wind speeds, warmer waters and higher water column stability, N. australis production is reduced. Models allowing competition effects by the kelp gull on the 2 native species performed poorly relative to models with climate covariates. Thus, compe- tition alone is not a sufficient explanatory factor for observed changes in the 2 native species, and management strategies to maintain populations of the endemic Pacific gull should seek to reduce other stressors, including factors related to climate change.

Management of marine mega-fauna in a changing climate is constrained by a series of uncertainties, often related to climate change projections, ecological responses, and the effectiveness of strategies in alleviating climate change impacts. Uncertainties can be reduced over time through adaptive management. Adaptive management is a framework for resource conservation that promotes iterative learning-based decision making. To successfully implement the adaptive management cycle, different steps (planning, designing, learning and adjusting) need to be systematically implemented to inform earlier steps in an iterative way. Despite the critical role that adaptive management is likely to play in addressing the impacts of climate change on marine mega-fauna few managers have successfully implemented an adaptive management approach. We discuss the approaches necessary to implement each step of an adaptive management cycle to manage marine mega-fauna in a changing climate, highlighting the steps that require further attention to fully implement the process. Examples of sharks and rays (Selachimorpha and Batoidea) on the Great Barrier Reef and little penguins, Eudyptula minor, in south-eastern Australia are used as case studies. We found that successful implementation of the full adaptive management cycle to marine mega-fauna needs managers and researchers to: (1) obtain a better understanding of the capacity of species to adapt to climate change to inform the planning step; (2) identify strategies to directly address impacts in the marine environment to inform the designing step; and (3) develop systematic evaluation and monitoring programs to inform the learning step. Further, legislation needs to flexible to allow for management to respond.

Climate change is acknowledged as an emerging threat for top-order marine predators, yet obtaining evidence of impacts is often difficult. In south-eastern Australia, a marine global warming hotspot, evidence suggests that climate change will profoundly affect pinnipeds and seabirds. Long-term data series are available to assess some species’ responses to climate. Researchers have measured a variety of chronological and population variables, such as laying dates, chick or pup production, colony-specific abundance and breeding success. Here, we consider the challenges in accurately assessing trends in marine predator data, using long-term data series that were originally collected for other purposes, and how these may be driven by environmental change and variability. In the past, many studies of temporal changes and environmental drivers used linear analyses and we demonstrate the (theoretical) relationship between the magnitude of a trend, its variability, and the duration of a data series required to detect a linear trend. However, species may respond to environmental change in a nonlinear manner and, based on analysis of time-series from south-eastern Australia, it appears that the assumptions of a linear model are often violated, particularly for measures of population size. The commonly measured demographic variables exhibit different degrees of variation, which influences the ability to detect climate signals. Due to their generally lower year-to-year variability, we illustrate that monitoring of variables such as mass and breeding chronology should allow detection of temporal trends earlier in a monitoring programme than observations of breeding success and population size. Thus, establishing temporal changes with respect to climate change from a monitoring programme over a relatively short time period requires careful a priori choice of biological variables.

Using a 40 yr demographic database of little penguins Eudyptula minor, we investi- gated anticipated impacts of climatic changes on the penguin population at Phillip Island, south- eastern Australia, and the potential economic impact on the associated tourism industry over the next century. We project a small loss of penguin breeding habitat due to sea level rise, although breeding habitat is unlikely to be limiting over this period. However, some erosion in the vicinity of tourism infrastructure will undoubtedly occur which will have economic implications. We anti cipate little direct impact of decreased rainfall and humidity. However, fire risk may increase, and extreme climate events may reduce adult and chick survival slightly. Warmer oceans are likely to improve recruitment into the breeding population but the effect on adult survival is unclear. Overall, many aspects of little penguin biology are likely to be affected by climatic change but no net negative effect on population size is projected from existing analyses. Ocean acidification has the potential to be a highly significant negative influence, but present assess- ments are speculative. Some of the predicted negative impacts can be addressed in the short- term, particularly those resulting from expected changes to the terrestrial environment. Others, particularly in the marine environment, appear to have limited options for mitigation locally. In the absence of evidence indicating population decline, economic impact may be confined to issues for tourism infrastructure due to increased sea-levels during storm events.

Riparian ecosystems in the 21st century are likely to play a critical role in determining the vulnerability of natural and human systems to climate change, and in influencing the capacity of these systems to adapt. Some authors have suggested that riparian ecosystems are particularly vulnerable to climate change impacts due to their high levels of exposure and sensitivity to climatic stimuli, and their history of degradation. Others have highlighted the probable resilience of riparian ecosystems to climate change as a result of their evolution under high levels of climatic and environmental variability. We synthesize current knowledge of the vulnerability of riparian ecosystems to climate change by assessing the potential exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity of their key components and processes, as well as ecosystem functions, goods and services, to projected global climatic changes. We review key pathways for ecological and human adaptation for the maintenance, restoration and enhancement of riparian ecosystem functions, goods and services and present emerging principles for planned adaptation. Our synthesis suggests that, in the absence of adaptation, riparian ecosystems are likely to be highly vulnerable to climate change impacts. However, given the critical role of riparian ecosystem functions in landscapes, as well as the strong links between riparian ecosystems and human well-being, considerable means, motives and opportunities for strategically planned adaptation to climate change also exist. The need for planned adaptation of and for riparian ecosystems is likely to be strengthened as the importance of many riparian ecosystem functions, goods and services will grow under a changing climate. Consequently, riparian ecosystems are likely to become adaptation ‘hotspots’ as the century unfolds.

Rapid changes in global climate are likely to alter species assemblages and environmental characteristics resulting in novel ecosystems. The ability to predict characteristics of future ecosystems is crucial for environmental planning and the development of effective climate change adaptation strategies. This paper presents an approach for envisioning novel ecosystems in future climates. Focusing on riparian ecosystems, we use qualitative process models to predict likely abiotic and biotic changes in four case study systems: tropical coastal floodplains, temperate streams, high mountain streams and urban riparian zones. We concentrate on functional groups rather than individual species and consider dispersal constraints and the capacity for genetic adaptation. Our scenarios suggest that climatic changes will reduce indigenous diversity, facilitate non-indigenous invasion (especially C4 graminoids), increase fragmentation and result in simplified and less distinctive riparian ecosystems. Compared to models based on biota-environment correlations, process models built on mechanistic understanding (like Bayesian belief networks) are more likely to remain valid under novel climatic conditions. We posit that predictions based on species’ functional traits will facilitate regional comparisons and can highlight effects of climate change on ecosystem structure and function. Ecosystems that have experienced similar modification to that expected under climate change (for example, altered flow regimes of regulated rivers) can be used to help inform and evaluate predictions. By manipulating attributes of these system models (for example, magnitude of climatic changes or adaptation strategies used), implications of various scenarios can be assessed and optimal management strategies identified.

Ocean temperature has been shown to be related to various demographic parameters in several seabird species, but ultimately its influence on breeding success and survival are para- mount. The timing and success of breeding of little penguins Eudyptula minor in south-eastern Australia have been shown to correlate with local sea-surface temperatures (SST) and the east−west sea-temperature gradient across Bass Strait several months earlier. However, the causal links between ocean temperature and these demographic variables are not readily apparent due to their lagged nature. Using 41 yr of data on little penguins in south-eastern Australia, we carried out a mark-recapture analysis to examine if the changing SST and sea-temperature gradient (east−west difference between 2 locations in Bass Strait) are associated with survival probability in the first year of life. First-year survival is correlated with (1) an east−west sea-temperature gradient in Bass Strait in the winter after fledging, with an increased temperature gradient associated with decreased survival and (2) the mean SST in the autumn after fledging, with warmer seas associated with increased survival. SST alone does not provide the best model for explaining first-year survival. Projections suggest that SST in south-eastern Australia and sea-temperature gradient in Bass Strait will both increase due to global warming. The net effect of an increased sea-temperature gradient in winter (which has a negative influence) and increased SST in autumn (which has a posi- tive influence) on first-year survival is uncertain, given the current lack of knowledge concerning the relationship between the sea-temperature gradient and SST in Bass Strait.

Climate change has profound implications for biodiversity worldwide. To understand its effects on Australia’s avifauna, we need to evaluate the effects of annual climatic variability and geographical climate gradients. Here, we use national datasets to examine variation in breeding of 16 species of common and widespread Australian landbirds, in relation to four variables: altitude, latitude, year and the Southern Oscillation Index. Analysis of >30 years of nesting records confirmed that breeding was generally later in colder altitudes and latitudes (geographic variation), but was not consistently related to year or the Southern Oscillation Index (temporal variation). However, power to detect expected temporal effects was low. The timing of breeding became significantly earlier with year only in south-eastern Australia. In contrast, an index of breeding activity (the proportion of atlas records for a species for which breeding was reported) increased with increasing winter values of the Southern Oscillation Index (generally wetter conditions) for all 16 species across Australia. This suggests that annual fluctuations in rainfall can have dramatic and immediate effects on breeding, even for largely sedentary, seasonally breeding species. If, as expected, climate change creates drier conditions over much of Australia, we predict a marked negative effect on bird breeding.

Although there is growing evidence of climate warming, for many regions the broader effects of climate variation on marine top predators remains unknown owing to the difficulty in obtaining, for synthesis, long-term and short-term datasets on multiple species. In the Australian region, climatic and oceanographic variability and change have been shown to affect marine species, often with profound consequences. Many seabirds are apex predators for which changes in climatic and oceanic dynamics have driven range movements poleward, reduced breeding success and altered breeding timing for some species. Here we review the literature to assess and determine the vulnerability of Australian seabirds to variation and change in climate and identify which species and ecosystems may be more resilient to future climate warming. It is clear from this synthesis that not all Australian seabirds are affected similarly, with responses varying by species and location. In addition, the paucity of information on the distribution and biology of seabird prey, foraging patterns and movements of seabirds, and the ability of seabirds to switch between prey species or adjust timing of life-cycles make generalisations about potential effects of future climate change and adaptive capacity in seabirds difficult. This applies both within Australia and elsewhere, where data are similarly sparse.

Temporal and climate-related changes in avian phenology were assessed for seven species of south-eastern Australia using data obtained from members of the public, naturalist groups and other organizations. Despite significantly warmer temperatures (∼0.02–0.03°C per year) and reduced rainfall (∼1.6–8.0 mm per year) over much of south-eastern Australia in recent decades, most species showed no corresponding trends in their timing of migration or breeding, the notable exceptions being the grey fantail (Rhipidura fuliginosa) and the flame robin (Petroica phoenicea), which migrate through Melbourne, Victoria, during autumn and spring. In many species, however, migration or breeding timing appeared to be influenced to some extent by local, rather than regional, climate conditions, particularly local daily maximum and minimum temperatures. Whether these species will noticeably change their phenology to match projected changes in climate, perhaps when a currently unknown climate threshold is crossed, or whether these species are sufficiently flexible in their foraging strategies or food sources to be able to maintain their current timing, remains to be seen.

In the version of this Perspective originally published, affiliations 1 and 4 ware incorrect, and should have read: “1Antarctic Climate & Ecosystems CRC, University of Tasmania, Hobart, Tasmania, Australia” and “4Centre for Water, Climate and Land (CWCL), University of Newcastle, Callaghan, NSW, Australia”. These have been corrected in the online versions of this Perspective.

The peri-urban environment of Langwarrin, near Melbourne, Australia, was used to investigate relationships between local climate and timing of movements in land and waterbirds. From 1976 to 1997, three of 12 species (25%) significantly altered the timing of their arrival, four of 11 species (36%) altered the timing of their departure, and two of 13 (15%) altered the time of their peak abundance. For many species (68%) timing of seasonal movements was significantly correlated with climate, in particular the timing of arrival, peak abundance and for movement in autumn. Minimum temperature appeared to have a greater influence on timing of avian movements than maximum temperature, rainfall or the number of rain-days, and where rainfall or the number of rain-days appeared important it was generally in the season before movement. Although based on a period and location where little warming or drying was observed, the complexity of responses seen by these species indicates that it may not be straightforward to predict the timing of movements of individuals or populations in response to climatic shifts. Given climatic projections of more pronounced warming and drying of this region, this study highlights the need to monitor bird populations continually to determine if species respond predominantly to interannual variability in climate or to, as yet unknown, climatic thresholds.

Numbers of four duck species present within a study area in a tidal embayment (Corner Inlet, south-eastern Australia) were obtained between 1977 and 2002. The species involved were Chestnut (Anas castanea) and Grey (A. gracilis) Teal, Pacific Black Duck (A. superciliosa) and Australian Shelduck (Tadorna tadornoides) and counts are compared with local and distant meteorological data. Chestnut and Grey Teal were most, and Australian Shelduck least, abundant. There was considerable monthly and annual variation; generally, teal and Pacific Black Duck were most numerous in summer and autumn, whereas Shelduck peaked somewhat earlier. Peak abundance corresponded to times of higher inter-annual variation and, apart from Shelduck, abundance had significant, usually weak, negative associations with rainfall though not beyond a one season lag. Pacific Black Duck numbers showed larger, more persistent and positive association with streamflows, particularly in south-eastern Australia, whereas associations for Chestnut Teal were negative and included lags of up to seven seasons. Grey Teal counts showed few significant correlations with streamflow, and Australian Shelduck numbers showed none. Abundance in some species was negatively related to the Southern Oscillation Index in the season of the count, but for Australian Shelduck there was a positive correlation for two seasons previously. Few significant relationships occurred between abundance in Corner Inlet and other Australian waterfowl abundance measures, although annual counts at Corner Inlet were positively correlated with Victorian Summer Waterfowl Counts and negatively with wetland area obtained during East Australia Counts. To an extent, results reflect current views on species' biologies, with birds moving into and out of a saline habitat determined by breeding conditions elsewhere. As found elsewhere, there were some relationships with meteorological variables, though strength and direction varied, perhaps reflecting species' plasticity in responses to rain events at local or distant scale and time.

As is the case for many seabirds, we found that the timing and breeding success of little penguins Eudyptula minor on Phillip Island, southeastern Australia, was associated with sea surface temperature (SST) variation. Using 31 yr of data (1968 to 1998), we examined the correlations be- tween breeding variables and regional SST at different times of the year. The next 9 yr of data (1999 to 2007) were used to test the performance of our statistical predictive models. Egg-laying date, chick mass and the number of chicks fledged per pair were correlated with SST in the first 3 mo of the year prior to breeding, in slightly different ways. SST provided more accurate predictions of mean laying date (53% variance) than of chicks produced per pair (22%) or mean chick mass at fledging (16%). This model predicted an early egg-laying date, higher average chick mass at fledging and a higher number of chicks produced per breeding pair when SSTs in Bass Strait are warmer than average in March. The models presented predict that an increase in SST is likely to lead to a reversal of the trend towards later breeding and suggest improved growth of the colony of little penguins on Phillip Island, at least in the immediate future.

Spatial and temporal variation in the breeding of Masked Lapwings (Vanellus miles) in Australia were examined using data from Birds Australia’s Nest Record Scheme (NRS; 1957–2002), the Atlas of Australian Birds (1998–2006), and climatic data (1952–2006). Breeding in north-western Australia was concentrated in summer, while in other regions the peak of breeding occurred during spring. Breeding success varied between regions and years but was generally highest in Tasmania. Clutch-size (mean 3.57 eggs ± 0.033 s.e., n = 549 clutches) did not vary regionally or temporally. In the north-east, breeding became earlier over time (~1.9 days per year, NRS), while in the south-east, breeding became later (~0.9 days per year); in other regions temporal trends were not evident. Only Tasmania showed a significant temporal change in breeding success (decrease of ~1.5% per year). All regions experienced warming climates, and annual rainfall increased in north-western regions and decreased in eastern regions. There were weak or no relationships between the amount or success of breeding, clutch-size and the climatic variables considered (with the possible exception of Tasmania), suggesting either that data limitations precluded us from detecting subtle effects or that Masked Lapwings have been little influenced or are resilient to changes in climate over most of their range.

Climate is known to influence the timing and success of breeding in many bird species. In the northern hemisphere, significant breeding changes have been associated with climate change, with warming temperatures, often, but not always, corresponding to earlier laying. For the critically endangered Helmeted Honeyeater (Lichenostomus melanops cassidix) of central southern Victoria, Australia, climate also plays a role in the timing and success of breeding. During the period 1989 to 2006, the timing of laying became earlier and there was a possible reduction in the mean number of eggs laid per breeding season. These changes correspond to a reduction in rainfall and mild warming. If these trends continue under projected climate-change regimes, there will be increased risk of further population decline.

Seabirds are subject to the influences of local climate variables during periods of land-based activities such as breeding and, for some species, moult; particularly if they undergo a catastrophic moult (complete simultaneous moult) as do penguins. We investigated potential relationships between adult penguin survival and land-based climate variables (ambient air temperature, humidity and rainfall) using 46 years of mark-recapture data of little penguins Eudyptula minor gathered at a breeding colony on Phillip Island in southeastern Australia. Our results showed that adult penguin survival had a stronger association with land-based climate variables during the moult period, when birds were unable to go to sea for up to 3 weeks, than during the breeding period, when birds could sacrifice breeding success in favour of survival. Annual adult survival probability was positively associated with humidity during moult and negatively associated with rainfall during moult. Prolonged heat during breeding and moult had a negative association with annual adult survival. Local climate projections suggest increasing days of high temperatures, fewer days of rainfall which will result in more droughts (and by implication, lower humidity) and more extreme rainfall events. All of these predicted climate changes are expected to have a negative impact on adult penguin survival.

In the 2001 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Third Assessment Report numerous studies of processes and species associated with regional temperature change were listed for the Northern Hemisphere (107 in North America, 458 in Europe, and 14 in Asia), but only a handful of studies for the Southern Hemisphere and, sadly, none for Australia were included. This article looks at the progress that Australia has made in addressing these knowledge gaps during the last three years. The article highlights the need for a national approach to the study of the associations between climate change and natural systems and suggests ways in which this could be achieved.

Seasonal and annual movements of Australian waterbirds are generally more complex than those of their Northern Hemisphere counterparts, and long-term data are needed to understand their relationships with climatic variables. This paper explores a long-term (1973-2002) set of waterbird counts from coastal Victoria and relates them to climatic data at local and continental scales. Three species (Black Swan Cygnus atratus, White-faced Heron Egretta novaehollandiae and Grey Teal Anas gracilis) were chosen for this analysis. Black Swans have large local breeding populations near the study region; White-faced Herons have smaller local breeding populations and Grey Teal breed extensively in ephemeral inland floodplains, such as those in the Murray-Darling Basin. All showed significant relationships with streamflow, regional rainfall and the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) at appropriate scales and time-lags, with streamflow explaining the most variance. Black Swans showed a strong seasonal cycle in abundance and local climate variables had the greatest influence on the counts. Numbers were positively correlated with streamflow in southern Victoria three to six seasons before each count. Broader-scale climatic patterns were more important for the other two species. Numbers of White-faced Herons were positively correlated with streamflow or rainfall over various parts of Australia seven to nine seasons before each count. Numbers of Grey Teal showed weak seasonal cycles, and were negatively correlated with rainfall in Victoria or the Murray-Darling Basin in the seasons before or during each count, and positively with streamflow in the Murray-Darling Basin 15-18 months before each count.

Relative to the northern hemisphere, little is known about the effect of climate change on southern hemisphere birds, although the impact could be significant. Here we review the effects of climate change on birds that have been documented or predicted, with particular reference to Australian species. Potential impacts include changes in geographic range, movement patterns, morphology, physiology, abundance, phenology and community composition. The evidence suggests that these changes are already happening, both overseas and in Australia, but more research is needed to determine the extent of these impacts and how to conserve birds in the face of climate change. Management options include promoting adaptation and resilience, intensive management of sensitive species, and improved planning for mitigation techniques and monitoring.

In contrast to the Northern Hemisphere, relatively little is known about the influence of climate, in particular climate change, on the timing of bird migration in Australia. This paper exam- ines a new dataset, comprising daily abundance records for 8 landbird species at Eyre Bird Observa- tory (EBO), Western Australia, for the period 1984 to 2003. Five of the 8 species were present at Eyre for only part of the year, while the 3 species present all year round exhibited seasonal changes in abundance. For most species, changes in migration dates were related to observed changes in the regional climate; 3 species showed no trend in migration timing, and these had no regular period of absence from EBO. Of the remaining species, the Purple-crowned Lorikeet Glossopsitta porphyro- cephala and Grey Fantail Rhipidura fuliginosa showed strong trends in arrival dates: both winter visitors arrived suddenly at EBO and earlier over time, with lorikeets arriving earlier in years of warmer night-time temperatures. Two species, Fork-tailed Swift Apus pacificus and Rainbow Bee- eater Merops ornatus, had strong trends in departure dates and were summer visitors. These species responded differently to warming night-time temperatures, perhaps reflecting their breeding char- acteristics. The Budgerigar Melopsittacus undulatus arrived and departed suddenly and showed no trend in migration timing, though wetter years corresponded to earlier arrivals. Consistent with global trends, this region warmed, particularly in minimum temperatures (0.05°C yr -1 ). There was no

BY CHER M. PAGE, NEVILLE NICHOLLS, NEIL PLUMMER, BLAIR TREWIN, MIKE MANTON, LISA ALEXANDER, LYNDA E. CHAMBERS, YOUNGEUN CHOI, DEAN A. COLLINS, ASHMITA GOSAI, PAUL DELLA-MARTA, MALCOLM R. HAYLOCK, KASIS INAPE, VICTOIRE LAURENT, LUC MAITREPIERRE, ERWIN E.P. MAKMUR, HIROSHI NAKAMIGAWA, NONGNAT OUPRASITWONG, SIMON MCGREE, JANITA PAHALAD, M.J. SALINGER, LOURDES TIBIG, TRONG D. TRAN, KALIAPAN VEDIAPAN, AND PANMAO ZHAI

Climate change is already impacting a wide range of marine species around Australia. Australia has a large number of marine mammals and seabirds, particularly when Australian Antarctic and Southern Ocean species are included: 110 species of seabird and 52 species of marine mammal. These iconic species are protected throughout Australia and in some cases are recovering from previous anthropogenic impacts including harvest. The first tool we developed is a simple 'cost-benefit- risk' (CBR) screening tool to evaluate each scenario-specific adaptation option against a number of semi-quantitative attributes. Awareness and identification of potentially contested options would be useful to managers charged with implementing adaptation options. Following on from specific application, testing some of the adaptation options in limited field trials would be a useful next step, further building the experience of researchers and managers charged with securing the status of these iconic species in the future.

An evaluation of trial seasonal forecasts during the 1997/98 El Nino, using an atmospheric GCM forced by persisted sea surface temperature and sea-ice anomalies, is presented. Generally, forecasts of seasonal anomalies of precipitation, surface air temperature, 200-hPa geopotential height, and mean sea level pressure (MSLP) are shown to have statistically significant skill in the Tropics and subtropics, but predominantly over the oceans. Surface air temperature and 200-hPa height anomalies are also skillfully forecast over land in the 30°S–30°N latitudinal band, and, in contrast to precipitation and MSLP, also show significant skill in the extratropics. The global pattern of significant skill seems not to be oversensitive to the use of a Kuo or a mass-flux convection scheme (Tiedtke), although the global root-mean-square errors are consistently larger, in the latter case. Results from multidecadal simulations of the model, when forced by observed sea surface temperature and sea-ice, show that the...

An operational system for the prediction of Australian seasonal rainfall variations using sea surface temperature anomaly (SSTA) patterns over the Indian and Pacific Oceans is described. The SSTA patterns are represented by rotated principal components, with individual monthly values at 1- and 3-month lead times used as predictors; for example, November and January SSTAs are used to forecast March‐May seasonal rainfall. The historical seasonal rainfall is also represented by rotated principal components of a gridded 1 8 rainfall dataset, with the principal component loadings used as weights to project the forecasts back to the original 1 8 grid points. Forecasts of seasonal rainfall in two (above/below median) or three categories (terciles) are produced using linear discriminant analysis. Hindcast skill, measured by the linear error in probability space (LEPS) skill score has been assessed using cross validation. Experiments were also performed using a double or nested crossvalidation procedure to select the best model or combination of predictors. The model chosen for operational seasonal forecasts uses the first two rotated SSTA components lagged by 1 and 3 months as predictors for every season and location, to maintain continuity of forecast probabilities between the overlapping 3-month seasons. Current values of the principal component amplitudes are calculated by projecting either the Bureau of Meteorology’s or the National Centers for Environmental Prediction’s SST analysis onto the set of SST principal components. The hindcasts and experimental real-time forecasts over the 5-yr period from January‐March 1994 to December‐February 1998/99 indicate improved skill over parts of southern Australia during the autumn period using the SST-based schemes when compared with forecasts using the Southern Oscillation index alone.

Trends in extreme daily temperature and rainfall have been analysed from 1961 to 1998 for Southeast Asia and the South Pacific. This 38-year period was chosen to optimize data availability across the region. Using high-quality data from 91 stations in 15 countries, significant increases were detected in the annual number of hot days and warm nights, with significant decreases in the annual number of cool days and cold nights. These trends in extreme temperatures showed considerable consistency across the region. Extreme rainfall trends were generally less spatially coherent than were those for extreme temperature. The number of rain days (with at least 2 mm of rain) has decreased significantly throughout Southeast Asia and the western and central South Pacific, but increased in the north of French Polynesia, in Fiji, and at some stations in Australia. The proportion of annual rainfall from extreme events has increased at a majority of stations. The frequency of extreme rainfall events has declined at most stations (but not significantly), although significant increases were detected in French Polynesia. Trends in the average intensity of the wettest rainfall events each year were generally weak and not significant. Copyright © 2001 Royal Meteorological Society.

Submitted by Vitor Silverio Rodrigues (vitorsrodrigues@reitoria.unesp.br) on 2014-05-27T11:30:49Z No. of bitstreams: 0Bitstream added on 2014-05-27T14:38:03Z : No. of bitstreams: 1 2-s2.0-84885053437.pdf: 221253 bytes, checksum: ff52650d1b86b7952e674de15c1d5af4 (MD5) Made available in DSpace on 2014-05-27T11:30:49Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 0 Previous issue date: 2013-10-01 Macquarie University National Research Foundation Current evidence of phenological responses to recent climate change is substantially biased towards northern hemisphere temperate regions. Given regional differences in climate change, shifts in phenology will not be uniform across the globe, and conclusions drawn from temperate systems in the northern hemisphere might not be applicable to other regions on the planet. We conduct the largest meta-analysis to date of phenological drivers and trends among southern hemisphere species, assessing 1208 long-term datasets from 89 studies on 347 species. Data were mostly from Australasia (Australia and New Zealand), South America and the Antarctic/subantarctic, and focused primarily on plants and birds. This meta-analysis shows an advance in the timing of spring events (with a strong Australian data bias), although substantial differences in trends were apparent among taxonomic groups and regions. When only statistically significant trends were considered, 82% of terrestrial datasets and 42% of marine datasets demonstrated an advance in phenology. Temperature was most frequently identified as the primary driver of phenological changes; however, in many studies it was the only climate variable considered. When precipitation was examined, it often played a key role but, in contrast with temperature, the direction of phenological shifts in response to precipitation variation was difficult to predict a priori. We discuss how phenological information can inform the adaptive capacity of species, their resilience, and constraints on autonomous adaptation. We also highlight serious weaknesses in past and current data collection and analyses at large regional scales (with very few studies in the tropics or from Africa) and dramatic taxonomic biases. If accurate predictions regarding the general effects of climate change on the biology of organisms are to be made, data collection policies focussing on targeting data-deficient regions and taxa need to be financially and logistically supported. © 2013 Chambers et al. Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research, Melbourne, VIC Kirstenbosch Research Centre South African National Biodiversity Institute, Cape Town CEBC, CNRS - UPR 1934, Villiers en Bois Department of Biological Sciences Macquarie University, Sydney, NSW Department of Environmental Affairs and Tourism, Cape Town Centre for Ecological and Evolutionary Synthesis Department of Biosciences University of Oslo, Oslo Department of Forest and Ecosystem Science University of Melbourne, Creswick, VIC Department of Ecology Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences, Uppsala Laboratorio de Fenologia, Departamento de Botânica Instituto de Biociências UNESP Universidade Estadual Paulista, São Paulo Climate Adaptation Flagship CSIRO Marine and Atmospheric Research, Brisbane, QLD International Fund for Animal Welfare, Yarmouth Port, MA Laboratory of Wildlife Comparative Pathology University of São Paulo, São Paulo Institute for Marine and Antarctic Studies University of Tasmania, Sandy Bay, TAS Joint Nature Conservation Committee of the UK, Stanley Animal Demography Unit University of Cape Town, Rondebosch Percy FitzPatrick Institute of African Ornithology DST/NRF Centre of Excellence University of Cape Town, Rondebosch Laboratorio de Fenologia, Departamento de Botânica Instituto de Biociências UNESP Universidade Estadual Paulista, São Paulo

There is substantial evidence of climate-related shifts to the timing of avian migration. Although spring arrival has generally advanced, variable species responses and geographical biases in data collection make it difficult to generalise patterns. We advance previous studies by using novel multivariate statistical techniques to explore complex relationships between phenological trends, climate indices and species traits. Using 145 datasets for 52 bird species, we assess trends in first arrival date (FAD), last departure date (LDD) and timing of peak abundance at multiple Australian locations. Strong seasonal patterns were found, i.e. spring phenological events were more likely to significantly advance, while significant advances and delays occurred in other seasons. However, across all significant trends, the magnitude of delays exceeded that of advances, particularly for FAD (+22.3 and −9.6 days/decade, respectively). Geographic variations were found, with greater advances in FAD and LDD, in south-eastern Australia than in the north and west. We identified four species clusters that differed with respect to species traits and climate drivers. Species within bird clusters responded in similar ways to local climate variables, particularly the number of raindays and rainfall. The strength of phenological trends was more strongly related to local climate variables than to broad-scale drivers (Southern Oscillation Index), highlighting the importance of precipitation as a driver of movement in Australian birds.

Seabirds are one of the most threatened groups of birds globally and, overall, their conservation status is deteriorating rapidly. Southern hemisphere countries are over-represented in the number of species of conservation concern yet long-term phenological data on seabirds in the southern hemisphere is limited. A better understanding of the implications of changes in the marine and terrestrial environments to seabird species is required in order to improve their management and conservation status. Here we conducted a meta-analysis of the phenological drivers and trends among southern hemisphere seabirds. Overall there was a general trend towards later phenological events over time (34 % of all data series, N = 47; 67 % of all significant trends), though this varied by taxa and location. The strongest trends towards later events were for seabirds breeding in Australia, the Laridae (gulls, noddies, terns) and migratory southern polar seabirds. In contrast, earlier phenologies were more often observed for the Spheniscidae (penguins) and for other seabirds breeding in the Antarctic and subantarctic. Phenological changes were most often associated with changes in oceanographic conditions, with sea-ice playing an important role for more southerly species. For some species in some locations, such as the Little Penguin Eudyptula minor in south-eastern Australia, warmer oceans projected under various climate change scenarios are expected to correspond to increased seabird productivity, manifested through earlier breeding, heavier chicks, an increased chance of double brooding, at least in the short-term.

B. Huntley (brian.huntley@durham.ac.uk), D. G. Hole and S. G. Willis, Ecosystem Science Centre, School of Biological and Biomedical Sciences, Durham Univ., South Road, Durham DH1 3LE, UK. P. Barnard, Birds & Environmental Change Partnership, Climate Change and BioAdaptation Div., South African National Biodiversity Inst., Kirstenbosch Research Centre, P/Bag X7, Claremont 7735, Cape Town, South Africa, and Percy FitzPatrick Inst. of African Ornithology, DST/NRF Centre of Excellence, Univ. of Cape Town, Rondebosch 7701, Cape Town, South Africa. R. Altwegg, Birds & Environmental Change Partnership, Climate Change and BioAdaptation Div., South African National Biodiversity Inst., Kirstenbosch Research Centre, P/Bag X7, Claremont 7735, Cape Town, South Africa, and Animal Demography Unit, Dept of Zoology, Univ. of Cape Town, Rondebosch 7701, Cape Town, South Africa. L. Chambers, Centre for Australian Weather & Climate Research Bureau of Meteorology, GPO Box 1289, Melbourne, Victoria 3001, Australia. B. W. T. Coetzee, Birds & Environmental Change Partnership, Climate Change and BioAdaptation Div., South African National Biodiversity Inst., Kirstenbosch Research Centre, P/Bag X7, Claremont 7735, Cape Town, South Africa, and Centre for Invasion Biology, Dept of Botany and Zoology, Stellenbosch Univ., Private Bag X1, Matieland 7602, South Africa. L. Gibson, Dept of Environment & Conservation, PO Box 51, Wanneroo WA 6946, Australia. P. A. R. Hockey, Percy FitzPatrick Inst. of African Ornithology, DST/NRF Centre of Excellence, Univ. of Cape Town, Rondebosch 7701, Cape Town, South Africa. G. F. Midgley, Birds & Environmental Change Partnership, Climate Change and BioAdaptation Div., South African National Biodiversity Inst., Kirstenbosch Research Centre, P/Bag X7, Claremont 7735, Cape Town, South Africa. L. G. Underhill, Animal Demography Unit, Dept of Zoology, Univ. of Cape Town, Rondebosch 7701, Cape Town, South Africa.