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Background: Data collection techniques that routinely provide health system information at the local level are in demand and needed. LQAS is intended for use by local health teams to collect data at the district and sub-district levels. Our question is whether local health staff produce biased results as they are responsible for implementing the programs they also assess., Methods: This test-retest study replicates on a larger scale an earlier LQAS reliability assessment in Uganda. We conducted in two districts an LQAS survey using 15 local health staff as data collectors. A week later, the data collectors swapped districts, where they acted as disinterested non-local data collectors, repeating the LQAS survey with the same respondents. We analysed the resulting two data sets for agreement using Cohens' Kappa., Results: The average Kappa score for the knowledge indicators was k = 0.43 (SD = 0.16) and for practice indicators k = 0.63 (SD = 0.17). These scores show moderate agreement for knowledge indicators and substantial agreement for practice indicators. Analyses confirm that respondents were more knowledgeable on retest; no evidence of bias was found for practice indicators., Conclusion: The findings of this study are remarkably similar to those produced in the first reliability study. There is no evidence that using local healthcare staff to collect LQAS data biases data collection in an LQAS study. The bias observed in the knowledge indicators was most likely due to a 'practice effect', whereby respondents increased their knowledge as a result of completing the first survey; no corresponding effect was seen in the practice indicators.

Background: It is well known that safe delivery in a health facility reduces the risks of maternal and infant mortality resulting from perinatal complications. What is less understood are the factors associated with safe delivery practices. We investigate factors influencing health facility delivery practices while adjusting for multiple other factors simultaneously, spatial heterogeneity, and trends over time., Methods: We fitted a logistic regression model to Lot Quality Assurance Sampling (LQAS) data from Uganda in a framework that considered individual-level covariates, geographical features, and variations over five time points. We accounted for all two-covariate interactions and all three-covariate interactions for which two of the covariates already had a significant interaction, were able to quantify uncertainty in outputs using computationally intensive cluster bootstrap methods, and displayed outputs using a geographical information system. Finally, we investigated what information could be predicted about districts at future time-points, before the next LQAS survey is carried out. To do this, we applied the model to project a confidence interval for the district level coverage of health facility delivery at future time points, by using the lower and upper end values of known demographics to construct a confidence range for the prediction and define priority groups., Results: We show that ease of access, maternal age and education are strongly associated with delivery in a health facility; after accounting for this, there remains a significant trend towards greater uptake over time. We use this model together with known demographics to formulate a nascent early warning system that identifies candidate districts expected to have low prevalence of facility-based delivery in the immediate future., Conclusions: Our results support the hypothesis that increased development, particularly related to education and access to health facilities, will act to increase facility-based deliveries, a factor associated with reducing perinatal associated mortality. We provide a statistical method for using inexpensive and routinely collected monitoring and evaluation data to answer complex epidemiology and public health questions in a resource-poor setting. We produced a model based on this data that explained the spatial distribution of facility-based delivery in Uganda. Finally, we used this model to make a prediction about the future priority of districts that was validated by monitoring and evaluation data collected in the next year.

Beginning in 2003, Uganda used Lot Quality Assurance Sampling (LQAS) to assist district managers collect and use data to improve their human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)/AIDS program. Uganda's LQAS-database (2003-2012) covers up to 73 of 112 districts. Our multidistrict analysis of the LQAS data-set at 2003-2004 and 2012 examined gender variation among adults who ever tested for HIV over time, and attributes associated with testing. Conditional logistic regression matched men and women by community with seven model effect variables. HIV testing prevalence rose from 14% (men) and 12% (women) in 2003-2004 to 62% (men) and 80% (women) in 2012. In 2003-2004, knowing the benefits of testing (Odds Ratio [OR] = 6.09, 95% CI = 3.01-12.35), knowing where to get tested (OR = 2.83, 95% CI = 1.44-5.56), and secondary education (OR = 3.04, 95% CI = 1.19-7.77) were significantly associated with HIV testing. By 2012, knowing the benefits of testing (OR = 3.63, 95% CI = 2.25-5.83), where to get tested (OR = 5.15, 95% CI = 3.26-8.14), primary education (OR = 2.01, 95% CI = 1.39-2.91), being female (OR = 3.03, 95% CI = 2.53-3.62), and being married (OR = 1.81, 95% CI = 1.17-2.8) were significantly associated with HIV testing. HIV testing prevalence in Uganda has increased dramatically, more for women than men. Our results concurred with other authors that education, knowledge of HIV, and marriage (women only) are associated with testing for HIV and suggest that couples testing is more prevalent than other authors.

A major strategy for preventing transmission of HIV and other STIs is the consistent use of condoms during sexual intercourse. Condom use among youths is particularly important to reduce the number of new cases and the national prevalence. Condom use has been often promoted by the Uganda National AIDS Commission. Although a number of studies have established an association between condom use at one's sexual debut and future condom use, few studies have explored this association over time, and whether the results are generalizable across multiple locations. This multi time point, multi district study assesses the relationship between sexual debut and condom use and consistent use of condoms thereafter. Uganda has used Lot Quality Assurance Sampling surveys since 2003 to monitor district level HIV programs and improve access to HIV health services. This study includes 4518 sexually active youths interviewed at five time points (2003-2010) in up to 23 districts located across Uganda. Using logistic regression, we measured the association of condom use at first sexual intercourse on recent condom usage, controlling for several factors including: age, sex, education, marital status, age at first intercourse, geographical location, and survey year. The odds of condom use at last intercourse, using a condom at last intercourse with a non-regular partner, and consistently using a condom are, respectively, 9.63 (95%WaldCI = 8.03-11.56), 3.48 (95%WaldCI = 2.27-5.33), and 11.12 (95%WaldCI = 8.95-13.81) times more likely for those individuals using condoms during their sexual debut. These values did not decrease by more than 20% when controlling for potential confounders. The results suggest that HIV prevention programs should encourage condom use among youth during sexual debut. Success with this outcome may have a lasting influence on preventing HIV and other STIs later in life.

Objective: To assess the progress made towards meeting the goals of the African Regional Strategic Plan of the Expanded Programme on Immunization between 2001 and 2005., Methods: We reviewed data from national infant immunization programmes in the 46 countries of WHOs African Region, reviewed the literature and analysed existing data sources. We carried out face-to-face and telephone interviews with relevant staff members at regional and subregional levels., Findings: The African Region fell short of the target for 80% of countries to achieve at least 80% immunization coverage by 2005. However, diphtheria-tetanus-pertussis-3 coverage increased by 15%, from 54% in 2000 to 69% in 2004. As a result, we estimate that the number of nonimmunized children declined from 1.4 million in 2002 to 900,000 in 2004. In 2004, four of seven countries with endemic or re-established wild polio virus had coverage of 50% or less, and some neighbouring countries at high risk of importation did not meet the 80% vaccination target. Reported measles cases dropped from 520,000 in 2000 to 316,000 in 2005, and mortality was reduced by approximately 60% when compared to 1999 baseline levels. A network of measles and yellow fever laboratories had been established in 29 countries by July 2005., Conclusion: Rates of immunization coverage are improving dramatically in the WHO African Region. The huge increases in spending on immunization and the related improvements in programme performance are linked predominantly to increases in donor funding.

As in a prior study on malignant lymphomas, 3 and 6 areas of Uganda showing low and high malarial endemicity, respectively, were selected for analysis and the data retrieved from the Kampala Cancer Registry, which in the 1960s and 1970s collected cases of cancer through a widely used free biopsy service from the whole country. Overall incidence rates were derived from 924 cases from the 12-year period 1964-1975. For reasons of economy, grade of tumour was determined only in cases pertaining to the 6-year period 1968-1973. Of 457 cases, 304 could be reviewed histologically. Only the group of squamous cell carcinomas (84.9%, 258 cases) was large enough for subsequent geographic analysis. High incidence rates of CC were found in areas with high malarial endemicity, whereas low incidence rates occurred where malaria was either frequent or rare. A correlate to malarial infection was the proportion of high-grade carcinomas irrespective of the overall incidence of CC. With high prevalence of malaria and high CPRs of 35-74%, the relative share of high-grade cancer amounted to 50-67%. Where malaria was rare with low CPRs of 8-11%, these values were lower and varied only from 25-39% with a similar range of 14%. Geographic agreement between malarial endemicity and the PI of high-grade cancer was high in the 9 study areas and only slightly lower than for BL, for which the association with malaria is beyond doubt. Compared to areas with little malaria, the RR for the incidence of high-grade carcinomas in areas with severe malaria was increased. The value was 2.04 with a 95% confidence interval of 1.37-3.04. Attributable to secondary immunodeficiency, lifelong exposure to malaria may result in excess frequency of high-grade malignant tumours not only in the group of malignant lymphomas but also in CC., (Copyright 2002 Wiley-Liss, Inc.)

A Monte Carlo model simulating actual populations was employed to evaluate the precision in estimation of a standardized sampling method proposed by the Global Programme on AIDS of the World Health Organization, for general use in collecting population-based data on HIV seroprevalence. It appears that in real populations, where there is likely to be 'pocketing' of infection, the proposed methodology will generally fail to provide estimates accurate to within 1% of the true population value. However, if the primary objective of a particular survey is to construct confidence intervals that include the true population HIV seroprevalence rate, then this survey method appears to be a reasonable choice. This study also suggests that selection of only one adult per household improves the precision of resulting estimates. However, since selection of only one adult per household would require that more households be visited, any gain in precision would need to be weighed against the likely increase in cost of household visits.

Many HIV/AIDS (acquired immunodeficiency syndrome) models have been developed to help our understanding of the dynamics and interrelationships of the determinants of HIV (human immunodeficiency virus) spread and/or to develop reliable estimates of the eventual extent of such spread. These models range from very simple to very complex. WHO has developed a simple model for short-term projections of AIDS, details of which are presented here along with results obtained using the model to estimate and project AIDS cases for the USA, sub-Saharan Africa, and south/south-east Asia. WHO has also developed, based on the model described in this paper, a computer program (Epi Model), which will enable the user to easily change the values of any of the variables required by the WHO model.

The cumulative results and long-term follow-up of all patients with Burkitt's lymphoma treated at the Uganda cancer Institute Kampala are reported. The annual admission rate is 29. The tumor patients commonly present with jaw swelling (72%), abdominal swelling (56%) and central nervous system involvement (30%). Complete response rate is achieved in a high proportion of patients (81%). About 50% of these relapse, equal numbers relapsing before and after 3 months. The most important factor influencing remission duration and survival is disease stage. Other important factors are treatment protocols and, to a lesser extent, the type of relapse. Central nervous system relapse does not necessarily augur poor prognosis as second remissions and long-term survival can be achieved with appropriate therapy. Presently 25% of all treated patients have survived free of disease well beyond 5 years.

Twenty-two patients with Burkitt's lymphoma in complete remission induced by either cyclophosphamide or a combination of cyclophosphamide, oncovin and methotrexate were randomized to receive or not to receive prophylactic cerebrospinal irradiation. Six of 11 irradiated patients relapsed with tumour of the central nervous system as compared to 4 of 11 controls. Relapse frequency appeared to be related to stage of disease on admission. It is concluded that irradiation does not prevent relapse.

A Monte Carlo simulation study was designed to evaluate the sample survey technique currently used by the Expanded Programme on Immunization (EPI) of the World Health Organization. Of particular interest was how the EPI strategy compared to a more traditional sampling strategy with respect to bias and variability of estimates. It was also of interest to investigate whether the estimates of population vaccination coverage were accurate to within 10 percentage points of the actual levels. It was found that within particular clusters, the EPI method was particularly sensitive to pocketing of vaccinated individuals, but the more traditional method gave more accurate and less variable results under a variety of conditions. However, the stated goal of the EPI, of being able to produce population estimates accurate to within 10 percentage points of the true levels in the population, was satisfied in the artificially created populations studied.

Hepatitis B surface antigen positive sera for 34 African residents in Uganda were analysed for antigenic determinants and ethnic groups. Twenty four of the subjects belonged to Bantu ethnic groups and the rest to non-Bantu ethnic groups. Nineteen of the Bantu had antigenic subtype adw and only one of the non-Bantu had subtype adw. The association between subtypes and ethnic groups was found to be statistically significant (p less than 0.01). The results in this preliminary report agree with reports from West Africa of a high preponderance of hepatitis B surface antigenic subtype ayw among the non-Bantu West Africans.

Between 1967 and 1977, 48 patients with Hodgkin's disease under 16-years-old were treated with MOPP chemotherapy alone at the Uganda Cancer Institute because radiotherapy facilities are not available. Thirty-eight percent had early stage disease (stages I-IIIA). Prolonged first remissions were achieved in 74% of 42 complete responders. Of 11 patients who relapsed, 5 had prolonged second remissions induced by MOPP. Three patients were lost to follow-up and 15 of the remaining 45 died: 12 of these from progressive Hodgkin's disease, 2 from unrelated causes and 1 from Burkitt's lymphoma after 4 months remission from Hodgkin's disease. Acturial survival for all patients is 67% (75% for stages I-IIIA and 60% for stages IIIB-IV). Treatment complications included Herpes zoster and gynaecomastia. The latter is probably related to gonadal dysfunction. All stages of childhood Hodgkin's disease can be successfully managed with MOPP chemotherapy alone.

The presence of several infections was determined in tissue and serum samples from 34 cases and 23 controls seen in 1984-85 at Mulago Hospital in Kampala, Uganda. When assessing single infections, association with cervical cancer could be shown for 5 agents, namely by Southern blot assay for human papillomavirus types 16 and 18 (HPV), and by serological tests at varying levels of antibody titres, for herpes simplex virus type I and/or 2 (HSV), cytomegalovirus (CMV), Epstein-Barr virus, viral capsid antigen (EBV-VCA), and Chlamydia trachomatis (CLT). Due to interaction, HSV and CMV were associated with cervical cancer only when infection by both of these agents was demonstrable. In the assessment of the simultaneous presence of these 5 infections, moderately high antibody titres were taken as the cut-off point for infection by HSV, CMV, EBV-VCA, and CLT. This showed that 3 and 4 infections at a time were seen in the majority of the cases in contrast to the controls with essentially no more than 2 such infections. A linear trend in the rise of risk for cervical cancer was noted with increasing number of infections.