44 results on '"Lunt, D.J."'
Search Results
2. Climate change and landscape development in post-closure safety assessment of solid radioactive waste disposal: Results of an initiative of the IAEA
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Lindborg, T., Thorne, M., Andersson, E., Becker, J., Brandefelt, J., Cabianca, T., Gunia, M., Ikonen, A.T.K., Johansson, E., Kangasniemi, V., Kautsky, U., Kirchner, G., Klos, R., Kowe, R., Kontula, A., Kupiainen, P., Lahdenperä, A.-M., Lord, N.S., Lunt, D.J., Näslund, J.-O., Nordén, M., Norris, S., Pérez-Sánchez, D., Proverbio, A., Riekki, K., Rübel, A., Sweeck, L., Walke, R., Xu, S., Smith, G., and Pröhl, G. more...
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- 2018
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Catalog
3. Pliocene model intercomparison project Phase 3 (PlioMIP3) – Science plan and experimental design
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Haywood, A.M., primary, Tindall, J.C., additional, Burton, L.E., additional, Chandler, M.A., additional, Dolan, A.M., additional, Dowsett, H.J., additional, Feng, R., additional, Fletcher, T.L., additional, Foley, K.M., additional, Hill, D.J., additional, Hunter, S.J., additional, Otto-Bliesner, B.L., additional, Lunt, D.J., additional, Robinson, M.M., additional, and Salzmann, U., additional more...
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- 2023
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4. Evaluating Northern High-Latitude Paleoclimate Model Results Using Paleobotanical Evidence from the Middle Cretaceous
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Harland, M., primary, Valdes, P., additional, Lunt, D.J., additional, Francis, J.E., additional, Farnsworth, A., additional, Loptson, C., additional, Beerling, D.J., additional, and Markwick, P.J., additional more...
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- 2019
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5. Temperature trends during the Present and Last Interglacial periods – a multi-model-data comparison
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Bakker, P., Masson-Delmotte, V., Martrat, B., Charbit, S., Renssen, H., Gröger, M., Krebs-Kanzow, U., Lohmann, G., Lunt, D.J., Pfeiffer, M., Phipps, S.J., Prange, M., Ritz, S.P., Schulz, M., Stenni, B., Stone, E.J., and Varma, V. more...
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- 2014
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6. Pliocene climate variability: Northern Annular Mode in models and tree-ring data
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Hill, D.J., Csank, A.Z., Dolan, A.M., and Lunt, D.J.
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- 2011
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7. Plio-pleistocene climate sensitivity evaluated using high-resolution C[O.sub.2] records
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Martinez-Boti, M.A., Foster, G.L., Chalk, T.B., Rohling, E.J., Sexton, P.F., Lunt, D.J., Pancost, R.D., Badger, M.P.S., and Schmidt, D.N.
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Research ,Environmental aspects ,Paleoclimatology -- Research ,Climate sensitivity -- Research ,Atmospheric carbon dioxide -- Environmental aspects -- Research - Abstract
Since the start of the industrial revolution, the concentration of atmospheric C[O.sub.2] (and other greenhouse gases) has increased dramatically (from ~280 to ~400 parts per million) (1). It has been [...], Theory and climate modelling suggest that the sensitivity of Earth's climate to changes in radiative forcing could depend on the background climate. However, palaeoclimate data have thus far been insufficient to provide a conclusive test of this prediction. Here we present atmospheric carbon dioxide (C[O.sub.2]) reconstructions based on multi-site boron- isotope records from the late Pliocene epoch (3.3 to 2.3 million years ago). We find that Earth's climate sensitivity to C[O.sub.2]-based radiative forcing (Earth system sensitivity) was half as strong during the warm Pliocene as during the cold late Pleistocene epoch(0.8 to 0.01 million years ago). We attribute this difference to the radiative impacts of continental ice-volume changes (the ice-albedo feedback) during the late Pleistocene, because equilibrium climate sensitivity is identical for the two intervals when we account for such impacts using sea-level reconstructions. We conclude that, on a global scale, no unexpected climate feedbacks operated during the warm Pliocene, and that predictions of equilibrium climate sensitivity (excluding long-term ice-albedo feedbacks) for our Pliocene-like future (with C[O.sub.2] levels up to maximum Pliocene levels of 450 parts per million) are well described by the currently accepted range of an increase of 1.5K to 4.5K per doubling of C[O.sub.2]. more...
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- 2015
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8. The contributions of PMIP to the IPCC assessment reports
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Kageyama, Masa, Abe-Ouchi, A., Annan, J., Braconnot, P., Brierley, C., González-Rouco, J. Fidel, Hargreaves, J., Harrison, S.P., Joussaume, S., Lunt, D.J., Otto-Bliesner, B., Rojas Corradi, M., Fidel Gonzalez-Rouco, J, Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement [Gif-sur-Yvette] (LSCE), Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ), Modélisation du climat (CLIM), Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ), Modelling the Earth Response to Multiple Anthropogenic Interactions and Dynamics (MERMAID), Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), and Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS) more...
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[SDU.OCEAN]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Ocean, Atmosphere ,[SDU.ENVI]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Continental interfaces, environment - Abstract
International audience; PMIP contributed to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Assessment Reports (ARs) by placing current climate change into a wider context, evaluating climate model performance in very different climatic states, and constraining climate sensitivity based on paleoclimates. more...
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- 2021
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9. Widespread warming before and elevated barium burial during the Paleocene‐Eocene Thermal Maximum: Evidence for methane hydrate release?
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Frieling, J., Peterse, F., Lunt, D.J., Bohaty, S.M., Sinninghe Damsté, J.S., Reichart, G.-J., Sluijs, A., Frieling, J., Peterse, F., Lunt, D.J., Bohaty, S.M., Sinninghe Damsté, J.S., Reichart, G.-J., and Sluijs, A. more...
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Current climate change may induce positive carbon cycle feedbacks that amplify anthropogenic warming on time scales of centuries to millennia. Similar feedbacks might have been active during a phase of carbon cycle perturbation and global warming, termed the Paleocene‐Eocene Thermal Maximum (PETM, 56 million years ago). The PETM may help constrain these feedbacks and their sensitivity to warming. We present new high‐resolution carbon isotope and sea surface temperature data from Ocean Drilling Program Site 959 in the Equatorial Atlantic. With these and existing data from the New Jersey Shelf and Maud Rise, Southern Ocean, we quantify the lead‐lag relation between PETM warming and the carbon input that caused the carbon isotope excursion (CIE). We show ~2 °C of global warming preceded the CIE by millennia, strongly implicating CO2‐driven warming triggered a positive carbon cycle feedback. We further compile new and published barium (Ba) records encompassing continental shelf, slope, and deep ocean settings. Based on this compilation, we calculate that average Ba burial rates approximately tripled during the PETM, which may require an additional source of Ba to the ocean. Although the precipitation pathway is not well constrained, dissolved Ba stored in sulfate‐depleted pore waters below methane hydrates could represent an additional source. We speculate the most complete explanation for early warming and rise in Ba supply is that hydrate dissociation acted as a positive feedback and caused the CIE. These results imply hydrates are more temperature sensitive than previously considered, and may warrant reconsideration of the political assignment of 2 °C warming as a safe future scenario. more...
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- 2019
10. The DeepMIP contribution to PMIP4: methodologies for selection, compilation and analysis of latest Paleocene and early Eocene climate proxy data, incorporating version 0.1 of the DeepMIP database
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Hollis, C.J., Dunkley Jones, T., Anagnostou, E., Bijl, P.K., Cramwinckel, M.J., Cui, Y., Dickens, G.R., Edgar, K.M., Eley, Y., Evans, D., Foster, G.L., Frieling, J., Inglis, G.N., Kennedy, E.M., Kozdon, R., Lauretano, V., Lear, C.H., Littler, K., Lourens, L., Meckler, A.N., Naafs, B.D.A., Pälike, H., Pancost, R.D., Pearson, P.N., Röhl, U., Royer, D.L., Salzmann, U., Schubert, B.A., Seebeck, H., Sluijs, A., Speijer, R.P., Stassen, P., Tierney, J.E., Tripati, A.K., Wade, B.S., Westerhold, T., Witkowski, C.R., Zachos, J.C., Zhang, Y.G., Huber, M., Lunt, D.J., Hollis, C.J., Dunkley Jones, T., Anagnostou, E., Bijl, P.K., Cramwinckel, M.J., Cui, Y., Dickens, G.R., Edgar, K.M., Eley, Y., Evans, D., Foster, G.L., Frieling, J., Inglis, G.N., Kennedy, E.M., Kozdon, R., Lauretano, V., Lear, C.H., Littler, K., Lourens, L., Meckler, A.N., Naafs, B.D.A., Pälike, H., Pancost, R.D., Pearson, P.N., Röhl, U., Royer, D.L., Salzmann, U., Schubert, B.A., Seebeck, H., Sluijs, A., Speijer, R.P., Stassen, P., Tierney, J.E., Tripati, A.K., Wade, B.S., Westerhold, T., Witkowski, C.R., Zachos, J.C., Zhang, Y.G., Huber, M., and Lunt, D.J. more...
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Back to topThe early Eocene (56 to 48 million years ago) is inferred to have been the most recent time that Earth's atmospheric CO2 concentrations exceeded 1000 ppm. Global mean temperatures were also substantially warmer than those of the present day. As such, the study of early Eocene climate provides insight into how a super-warm Earth system behaves and offers an opportunity to evaluate climate models under conditions of high greenhouse gas forcing. The Deep Time Model Intercomparison Project (DeepMIP) is a systematic model–model and model–data intercomparison of three early Paleogene time slices: latest Paleocene, Paleocene–Eocene thermal maximum (PETM) and early Eocene climatic optimum (EECO). A previous article outlined the model experimental design for climate model simulations. In this article, we outline the methodologies to be used for the compilation and analysis of climate proxy data, primarily proxies for temperature and CO2. This paper establishes the protocols for a concerted and coordinated effort to compile the climate proxy records across a wide geographic range. The resulting climate “atlas” will be used to constrain and evaluate climate models for the three selected time intervals and provide insights into the mechanisms that control these warm climate states. We provide version 0.1 of this database, in anticipation that this will be expanded in subsequent publications. more...
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- 2019
11. Evaluating northern high-latitude paleoclimate model results using paleobotanical evidence from the Middle Cretaceous
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Fraticelli, Carmen M., Markwick, Paul J., Martinius, Allard W., Suter, John R., Harland, M., Valdes, P., Lunt, D.J., Francis, Jane E., Farnsworth, A., Loptson, C., Beerling, D.J., Markwick, P.J., Fraticelli, Carmen M., Markwick, Paul J., Martinius, Allard W., Suter, John R., Harland, M., Valdes, P., Lunt, D.J., Francis, Jane E., Farnsworth, A., Loptson, C., Beerling, D.J., and Markwick, P.J. more...
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Climate plays a significant role in determining the styles of depositional processes at different latitudes, which in turn influence the locations of hydrocarbon systems. Results of climate modeling may therefore provide important information for predicting the presence or absence of suitable hydrocarbon plays. To determine whether the models provide realistic results, the critical step is to validate the model results against proxy data where they are available. Paleoclimate proxy data are most often derived from more accessible low- to midlatitude regions and are biased towards warm climate states. However, general circulation models (GCMs) have traditionally been biased to colder temperatures, in particular at high-latitudes, struggling to maintain the high-latitude regions warm enough to sustain forests that were present during greenhouse periods, such as the mid-Cretaceous (~130–89 Ma), without exaggerated warming of the equatorial regions. To improve this approach, the HadCM3L coupled atmosphere–ocean GCM, a state-of-the-art model for the long simulations required to reach an equilibrium climate, was run for each stage of the Cretaceous using new paleogeographic base maps. Here, we compare the results for the Aptian (118.5 Ma) and Albian (105.8 Ma) with paleoclimate proxy data from the high northern latitudes in order to determine if the model produces viable results for this region. Paleoclimate analysis of fossil wood from conifer forests from Svalbard of Aptian–Albian age suggests that they grew in moist cool upland areas adjacent to warmer temperate lowland regions, probably with rivers and/or swamps present. Studies of conifers from the Canadian Arctic islands indicate that they grew under slightly cooler conditions than on Svalbard, similar to northern Canada today. The HadCM3L GCM results for Svalbard show that the dominant biome was evergreen taiga/montane forest with lowland temperate vegetation present during the Albian Stage, possibly with an elemen more...
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- 2019
12. Uncertainties in the modelled CO2 threshold for Antarctic glaciation
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Gasson, E., Lunt, D.J., Deconto, R., Goldner, A., Heinemann, M., Huber, M., Legrande, A.N., Pollard, D., Sagoo, N., Siddall, M., Winguth, A., and Valdes, P.J.
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lcsh:GE1-350 ,lcsh:Environmental pollution ,lcsh:Environmental protection ,lcsh:TD172-193.5 ,lcsh:TD169-171.8 ,lcsh:Environmental sciences - Abstract
A frequently cited atmospheric CO2 threshold for the onset of Antarctic glaciation of ~780 ppmv is based on the study of DeConto and Pollard (2003) using an ice sheet model and the GENESIS climate model. Proxy records suggest that atmospheric CO2 concentrations passed through this threshold across the Eocene–Oligocene transition ~34 Ma. However, atmospheric CO2 concentrations may have been close to this threshold earlier than this transition, which is used by some to suggest the possibility of Antarctic ice sheets during the Eocene. Here we investigate the climate model dependency of the threshold for Antarctic glaciation by performing offline ice sheet model simulations using the climate from 7 different climate models with Eocene boundary conditions (HadCM3L, CCSM3, CESM1.0, GENESIS, FAMOUS, ECHAM5 and GISS_ER). These climate simulations are sourced from a number of independent studies, and as such the boundary conditions, which are poorly constrained during the Eocene, are not identical between simulations. The results of this study suggest that the atmospheric CO2 threshold for Antarctic glaciation is highly dependent on the climate model used and the climate model configuration. A large discrepancy between the climate model and ice sheet model grids for some simulations leads to a strong sensitivity to the lapse rate parameter. more...
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- 2014
13. Climate model and proxy data constraints on ocean warming across the Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum
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Dunkley Jones, T., Lunt, D.J., Schmidt, D.N., Ridgwell, A., Sluijs, A., Valdes, P.J., Maslin, M., Marine Palynology, and Marine palynology and palaeoceanography
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PETM ,010504 meteorology & atmospheric sciences ,Effects of global warming on oceans ,Climate ,Earth and Planetary Sciences(all) ,Geographic variation ,010502 geochemistry & geophysics ,Eocene ,01 natural sciences ,Proxy (climate) ,HYDRATE DESTABILIZATION ,Taverne ,14. Life underwater ,TETRAETHER LIPIDS ,CIRCULATION CHANGES ,0105 earth and related environmental sciences ,PLANKTONIC-FORAMINIFERA ,MEMBRANE-LIPIDS ,CORE-TOP CALIBRATION ,Sea surface temperature ,SEAWATER CHEMISTRY ,13. Climate action ,CALCITE-ARAGONITE SEAS ,Climatology ,Greenhouse gas ,SEA-SURFACE TEMPERATURE ,Carbon isotope excursion ,General Earth and Planetary Sciences ,Climate sensitivity ,Paleocene ,Climate model ,SOUTHWEST PACIFIC-OCEAN ,Warming ,Geology - Abstract
Constraining the greenhouse gas forcing, climatic warming and estimates of climate sensitivity across ancient large transient warming events is a major challenge to the palaeoclimate research community. Here we provide a new compilation and synthesis of the available marine proxy temperature data across the largest of these hyperthermals, the Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum (PETM). This includes the application of consistent temperature calibrations to all data, including the most recent set of calibrations for archaeal lipid-derived palaeothermometry. This compilation provides the basis for an informed discussion of the likely range of PETM warming, the biases present in the existing record and an initial assessment of the geographical pattern of PETM ocean warming. To aid interpretation of the geographic variability of the proxy-derived estimates of PETM warming, we present a comparison of this data with the patterns of warming produced by high pCO(2) simulations of Eocene climates using the Hadley Centre atmosphere-ocean general circulation model (AOGCM) HadCM3L On the basis of this comparison and taking into account the patterns of intermediate-water warming we estimate that the global mean surface temperature anomaly for the PETM is within the range of 4 to 5 degrees C. (C) 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. more...
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- 2013
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14. Exploring uncertainties in the relationship between temperature, ice volume, and sea level over the past 50 million years
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Gasson, E., Siddall, M., Lunt, D.J., Rackham, O.J.L., Lear, C.H., and Pollard, D.
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Over the past decade, efforts to estimate temperature and sea level for the past 50 Ma have increased. In parallel, efforts to model ice sheet changes during this period have been ongoing. We review published paleodata and modeling work to provide insights into how sea level responds to changing temperature through changes in ice volume and thermal expansion. To date, the temperature to sea level relationship has been explored for the transition from glacial to interglacial states. Attempts to synthesize the temperature to sea level relationship in deeper time, when temperatures were significantly warmer than present, have been tentative. We first review the existing temperature and sea level data and model simulations, with a discussion of uncertainty in each of these approaches. We then synthesize the sea level and temperature data and modeling results we have reviewed to test plausible forms for the sea level versus temperature relationship. On this very long timescale there are no globally representative temperature proxies, and so we investigate this relationship using deep-sea temperature records and surface temperature records from high and low latitudes. It is difficult to distinguish between the different plausible forms of the temperature to sea level relationship given the wide errors associated with the proxy estimates. We argue that for surface high-latitude Southern Hemisphere temperature and deep-sea temperature, the rate of change of sea level to temperature has not remained constant, i.e., linear, over the past 50 Ma, although the relationship remains ambiguous for the available low-latitude surface temperature data. A nonlinear form between temperature and sea level is consistent with ice sheet modeling studies. This relationship can be attributed to (1) the different glacial thresholds for Southern Hemisphere glaciation compared to Northern Hemisphere glaciation and (2) the ice sheet carrying capacity of the Antarctic continent. © 2012 by the American Geophysical Union. more...
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- 2012
15. A model for orbital pacing of methane hydrate destabilization during the Palaeogene
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Lunt, D.J., Ridgwell, A., Sluijs, A., Zachos, J.C., Hunter, S., Haywood, A., Biomarine Sciences, Sub Biomarine Sciences begr. 01-01-12, Biomarine Sciences, and Sub Biomarine Sciences begr. 01-01-12
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010504 meteorology & atmospheric sciences ,Orbital forcing ,Ocean current ,Global warming ,Magnitude (mathematics) ,010502 geochemistry & geophysics ,01 natural sciences ,Methane ,Carbon cycle ,chemistry.chemical_compound ,chemistry ,13. Climate action ,Climatology ,International ,Taverne ,General Earth and Planetary Sciences ,Climate model ,Paleogene ,Geology ,0105 earth and related environmental sciences - Abstract
The early Eocene was marked by a series of abrupt warming events. Numerical modelling suggests that the events were the result of nonlinear interactions between orbital forcing, ocean circulation and the carbon cycle. A series of transient global warming events1,2 occurred during the late Palaeocene and early Eocene, about 59 to 50 million years ago. The events, although variable in magnitude, were apparently paced by orbital cycles2,3,4 and linked to massive perturbations of the global carbon cycle5,6. However, a causal link between orbital changes in insolation and the carbon cycle has yet to be established for this time period. Here we present a series of coupled climate model simulations that demonstrate that orbitally induced changes in ocean circulation and intermediate water temperature can trigger the destabilization of methane hydrates. We then use a simple threshold model to show that progressive global warming over millions of years, in combination with the increasing tendency of the ocean to remain in a more stagnant state, can explain the decreasing magnitude and increasing frequency of hyperthermal events throughout the early Eocene. Our work shows that nonlinear interactions between climate and the carbon cycle can modulate the effect of orbital variations, in this case producing transient global warming events with varying timing and magnitude. more...
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- 2011
16. Using results from the PlioMIP ensemble to investigate the Greenland Ice Sheet during the mid-Pliocene Warm Period
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Dolan, A.M., Hunter, S.J., Hill, D.J., Haywood, A.M., Koenig, S.J., Otto-Bliesner, B.L., Abe-Ouchi, A., Bragg, F., Chan, W.-L., Chandler, M.A., Contoux, C., Jost, A., Kamae, Y., Lohmann, G., Lunt, D.J., Ramstein, G., Rosenbloom, N.A., Sohl, L., Stepanek, C., Ueda, H., Yan, Q., Zhang, Z., Dolan, A.M., Hunter, S.J., Hill, D.J., Haywood, A.M., Koenig, S.J., Otto-Bliesner, B.L., Abe-Ouchi, A., Bragg, F., Chan, W.-L., Chandler, M.A., Contoux, C., Jost, A., Kamae, Y., Lohmann, G., Lunt, D.J., Ramstein, G., Rosenbloom, N.A., Sohl, L., Stepanek, C., Ueda, H., Yan, Q., and Zhang, Z. more...
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During an interval of the Late Pliocene, referred to here as the mid-Pliocene Warm Period (mPWP; 3.264 to 3.025 million years ago), global mean temperature was similar to that predicted for the end of this century, and atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations were higher than pre-industrial levels. Sea level was also higher than today, implying a significant reduction in the extent of the ice sheets. Thus, the mPWP provides a natural laboratory in which to investigate the long-term response of the Earth's ice sheets and sea level in a warmer-than-present-day world. At present, our understanding of the Greenland ice sheet during the mPWP is generally based upon predictions using single climate and ice sheet models. Therefore, it is essential that the model dependency of these results is assessed. The Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project (PlioMIP) has brought together nine international modelling groups to simulate the warm climate of the Pliocene. Here we use the climatological fields derived from the results of the 15 PlioMIP climate models to force an offline ice sheet model. We show that mPWP ice sheet reconstructions are highly dependent upon the forcing climatology used, with Greenland reconstructions ranging from an ice-free state to a near-modern ice sheet. An analysis of the surface albedo variability between the climate models over Greenland offers insights into the drivers of inter-model differences. As we demonstrate that the climate model dependency of our results is high, we highlight the necessity of data-based constraints of ice extent in developing our understanding of the mPWP Greenland ice sheet. more...
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- 2015
17. Ice sheet model dependency of the simulated Greenland Ice Sheet in the mid-Pliocene
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Koenig, S.J., Dolan, A.M., de Boer, B., Stone, E.J., Hill, D.J., DeConto, R. M., Abe-Ouchi, A., Lunt, D.J., Pollard, D., Quiquet, A., Saito, F., Savage, J., van de Wal, R., Koenig, S.J., Dolan, A.M., de Boer, B., Stone, E.J., Hill, D.J., DeConto, R. M., Abe-Ouchi, A., Lunt, D.J., Pollard, D., Quiquet, A., Saito, F., Savage, J., and van de Wal, R. more...
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The understanding of the nature and behavior of ice sheets in past warm periods is important for constraining the potential impacts of future climate change. The Pliocene warm period (between 3.264 and 3.025 Ma) saw global temperatures similar to those projected for future climates; nevertheless, Pliocene ice locations and extents are still poorly constrained. We present results from the efforts to simulate mid-Pliocene Greenland Ice Sheets by means of the international Pliocene Ice Sheet Modeling Intercomparison Project (PLISMIP). We compare the performance of existing numerical ice sheet models in simulating modern control and mid-Pliocene ice sheets with a suite of sensitivity experiments guided by available proxy records. We quantify equilibrated ice sheet volume on Greenland, identifying a potential range in sea level contributions from warm Pliocene scenarios. A series of statistical measures are performed to quantify the confidence of simulations with focus on inter-model and inter-scenario differences. We find that Pliocene Greenland Ice Sheets are less sensitive to differences in ice sheet model configurations and internal physical quantities than to changes in imposed climate forcing. We conclude that Pliocene ice was most likely to be limited to the highest elevations in eastern and southern Greenland as simulated with the highest confidence and by synthesizing available regional proxies; however, the extent of those ice caps needs to be further constrained by using a range of general circulation model (GCM) climate forcings. more...
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- 2015
18. Optimization of integrated Earth System Model components using Grid-enabled data management and computation
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Price, A.R., Xue, G., Yool, A., Lunt, D.J., Valdes, P.J., Lenton, T.M., Wason, J.L., Pound, G.E., Cox, S.J., and GENIE team, The
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Computer Networks and Communications ,Virtual organization ,business.industry ,Computer science ,Data management ,Distributed computing ,Grid ,Computer Science Applications ,Theoretical Computer Science ,Computational Theory and Mathematics ,business ,MATLAB ,computer ,Software ,computer.programming_language - Abstract
In this paper, we present the Grid enabled data management system that has been deployed for the Grid ENabled Integrated Earth system model (GENIE) project. The database system is an augmented version of the Geodise Database Toolbox and provides a repository for scripts, binaries and output data in the GENIE framework. By exploiting the functionality available in the Geodise toolboxes we demonstrate how the database can be employed to tune parameters of coupled GENIE Earth System Model components to improve their match with observational data. A Matlab client provides a common environment for the project Virtual Organization and allows the scripting of bespoke tuning studies that can exploit multiple heterogeneous computational resources. We present the results of a number of tuning exercises performed on GENIE model components using multi-dimensional optimization methods. In particular, we find that it is possible to successfully tune models with up to 30 free parameters using Kriging and Genetic Algorithm methods. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. more...
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- 2007
19. Collaborative study of GENIEfy Earth System Models using scripted database workflows in a Grid-enabled PSE
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Price, A.R., Jiao, Z., Voutchkov, I.I., Lenton, T.M., Williams, G., Lunt, D.J., Marsh, R., Valdes, P.J., Cox, S.J., and Cox, S.J.
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The integration of compute and data grids into a common problem solving environment enables collaboration between members of the GENIEfy project. In addition, state-of-the-art optimisation algorithms complement the component framework to provide a comprehensive toolset for Earth system modelling. In this paper, we present for the first time, the application of the non-dominated sorting genetic algorithm (NSGA-II) to perform a multi-objective tuning of a 3D atmosphere model. We then demonstrate how scripted database workflows enable the collective pooling of available resource at distributed client sites to collaboratively progress ensembles of simulations through to completion on the computational grid. A systematic study of the oceanic thermohaline circulation in a hierarchy of 3D atmosphere-ocean-sea-ice models is presented providing evidence for bi-stability in the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation. more...
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- 2006
20. Tuning GENIE earth system model components using a Grid enabled data management system
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Price, A.R., Xue, G., Yool, A., Lunt, D.J., Lenton, T.M., Wason, J.L., Pound, G.E., Cox, S.J., GENIE Team, The, and Cox, S. J.
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We present the Grid enabled data management system that has been deployed for the GENIE project and demonstrate its use in tuning studies of an Earth system model. A Matlab client to the system provides a common environment for the project Virtual Organization to share scripts, binaries and output data. By using tools available in the Geodise toolkits we have scripted the execution of tuning studies which exploit multiple heterogeneous computational resources and use the database repository to steer computation using multi-dimensional optimisation methods. more...
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- 2004
21. Corrigendum to 'The relative roles of CO2 and palaeogeography in determining late Miocene climate: results from a terrestrial model-data comparison' published in Clim. Past, 8, 1257-1285, 2012
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Bradshaw, C.D., Lunt, D.J., Flecker, R., Salzmann, U., Pound, M.J., Haywood, A.M., Eronen, J.T., Bradshaw, C.D., Lunt, D.J., Flecker, R., Salzmann, U., Pound, M.J., Haywood, A.M., and Eronen, J.T.
- Published
- 2014
22. Evaluating the dominant components of warming in Pliocene climate simulations
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Hill, D.J., Haywood, A.M., Lunt, D.J., Hunter, S.J., Bragg, F.J., Contoux, C., Stepanek, C., Sohl, L., Rosenbloom, N.A., Chan, W.-L., Kamae, Y., Zhang, Z., Abe-Ouchi, A., Chandler, M.A., Jost, A., Lohmann, G., Otto-Bliesner, B.L., Ramstein, G., Ueda, H., Hill, D.J., Haywood, A.M., Lunt, D.J., Hunter, S.J., Bragg, F.J., Contoux, C., Stepanek, C., Sohl, L., Rosenbloom, N.A., Chan, W.-L., Kamae, Y., Zhang, Z., Abe-Ouchi, A., Chandler, M.A., Jost, A., Lohmann, G., Otto-Bliesner, B.L., Ramstein, G., and Ueda, H. more...
- Abstract
The Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project (PlioMIP) is the first coordinated climate model comparison for a warmer palaeoclimate with atmospheric CO2 significantly higher than pre-industrial concentrations. The simulations of the mid-Pliocene warm period show global warming of between 1.8 and 3.6 °C above pre-industrial surface air temperatures, with significant polar amplification. Here we perform energy balance calculations on all eight of the coupled ocean–atmosphere simulations within PlioMIP Experiment 2 to evaluate the causes of the increased temperatures and differences between the models. In the tropics simulated warming is dominated by greenhouse gas increases, with the cloud component of planetary albedo enhancing the warming in most of the models, but by widely varying amounts. The responses to mid-Pliocene climate forcing in the Northern Hemisphere midlatitudes are substantially different between the climate models, with the only consistent response being a warming due to increased greenhouse gases. In the high latitudes all the energy balance components become important, but the dominant warming influence comes from the clear sky albedo, only partially offset by the increases in the cooling impact of cloud albedo. This demonstrates the importance of specified ice sheet and high latitude vegetation boundary conditions and simulated sea ice and snow albedo feedbacks. The largest components in the overall uncertainty are associated with clouds in the tropics and polar clear sky albedo, particularly in sea ice regions. These simulations show that albedo feedbacks, particularly those of sea ice and ice sheets, provide the most significant enhancements to high latitude warming in the Pliocene. more...
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- 2014
23. A multi-model assessment of last interglacial temperatures
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UCL - SST/ELI/ELIC - Earth & Climate, Lunt, D.J., Abe-Ouchi, Ayako, Bakker, P., Berger, Andre, Braconnot, P., Charbit, S., Fischer, N., Herold, Nicholas, Jungclaus, J.H., Khon, V.C., Krebs-Kanzow, U., Langebroek, P.M., Lohmann, G., Nisancioglu, K.H., Otto-Bliesner, B.L., Park, W., Pfeiffer, M., Phipps, S.J., Prange, M., Rachmayani, R., Renssen, H., Rosenbloom, N., Schneider, B., Stone, E.J., Takahashi, K., Wei, W., Yin, Qiuzhen, Zhang, Z.S., UCL - SST/ELI/ELIC - Earth & Climate, Lunt, D.J., Abe-Ouchi, Ayako, Bakker, P., Berger, Andre, Braconnot, P., Charbit, S., Fischer, N., Herold, Nicholas, Jungclaus, J.H., Khon, V.C., Krebs-Kanzow, U., Langebroek, P.M., Lohmann, G., Nisancioglu, K.H., Otto-Bliesner, B.L., Park, W., Pfeiffer, M., Phipps, S.J., Prange, M., Rachmayani, R., Renssen, H., Rosenbloom, N., Schneider, B., Stone, E.J., Takahashi, K., Wei, W., Yin, Qiuzhen, and Zhang, Z.S. more...
- Abstract
The last interglaciation (130 to 116 ka) is a time period with a strong astronomically induced seasonal forcing of insolation compared to the present. Proxy records indicate a significantly different climate to that of the modern, in particular Arctic summer warming and higher eustatic sea level. Because the forcings are relatively well constrained, it provides an opportunity to test numerical models which are used for future climate prediction. In this paper we compile a set of climate model simulations of the early last interglaciation (130 to 125 ka), encompassing a range of model complexities. We compare the simulations to each other and to a recently published compilation of last interglacial temperature estimates.We show that the annual mean response of the models is rather small, with no clear signal in many regions. However, the seasonal response is more robust, and there is significant agreement amongst models as to the regions of warming vs cooling. However, the quantitative agreement of the model simulations with data is poor, with the models in general underestimating the magnitude of response seen in the proxies. Taking possible seasonal biases in the proxies into account improves the agreement, but only marginally. However, a lack of uncertainty estimates in the data does not allow us to draw firm conclusions. Instead, this paper points to several ways in which both modelling and data could be improved, to allow a more robust model–data comparison. more...
- Published
- 2013
24. Climate model and proxy data constraints on ocean warming across the Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum
- Author
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Marine Palynology, Marine palynology and palaeoceanography, Dunkley Jones, T., Lunt, D.J., Schmidt, D.N., Ridgwell, A., Sluijs, A., Valdes, P.J., Maslin, M., Marine Palynology, Marine palynology and palaeoceanography, Dunkley Jones, T., Lunt, D.J., Schmidt, D.N., Ridgwell, A., Sluijs, A., Valdes, P.J., and Maslin, M. more...
- Published
- 2013
25. A multi-model assessment of last interglacial temperatures
- Author
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Lunt, D.J., Abe-Ouchi, A., Bakker, P., Berger, A., Braconnot, P., Charbit, S., Fischer, N., Herold, N., Jungclaus, J.H., Kohn, V.C., Krebs-Kanzow, U., Lohmann, G., Otto-Bliesner, B., Park, W., Pfeiffer, M., Prange, M., Rachmayani, R., Renssen, H., Roosenbloom, N., Schneider, B., Lunt, D.J., Abe-Ouchi, A., Bakker, P., Berger, A., Braconnot, P., Charbit, S., Fischer, N., Herold, N., Jungclaus, J.H., Kohn, V.C., Krebs-Kanzow, U., Lohmann, G., Otto-Bliesner, B., Park, W., Pfeiffer, M., Prange, M., Rachmayani, R., Renssen, H., Roosenbloom, N., and Schneider, B. more...
- Abstract
The last interglaciation (-130 to 116 ka) is a time period with a strong astronomically induced seasonal forcing of insolation compared to the present. Proxy records indicate a significantly different climate to that of the modern, in particular Arctic summer warming and higher eustatic sea level. Because the forcings are relatively well constrained, it provides an opportunity to test numerical models which are used for future climate prediction. In this paper we compile a set of climate model simulations of the early last interglaciation (130 to 125 ka), encompassing a range of model complexities. We compare the simulations to each other and to a recently published compilation of last interglacial temperature estimates.We show that the annual mean response of the models is rather small, with no clear signal in many regions. However, the seasonal response is more robust, and there is significant agreement amongst models as to the regions of warming vs cooling. However, the quantitative agreement of the model simulations with data is poor, with the models in general underestimating the magnitude of response seen in the proxies. Taking possible seasonal biases in the proxies into account improves the agreement, but only marginally. However, a lack of uncertainty estimates in the data does not allow us to draw firm conclusions. Instead, this paper points to several ways in which both modelling and data could be improved, to allow a more robust model-data comparison. © Author(s) 2013. more...
- Published
- 2013
- Full Text
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26. Last interglacial temperature evolution – a model inter-comparison
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Bakker, P., Stone, E.J., Charbit, S., Gröger, M., Krebs-Kanzow, U., Ritz, S.P., Varma, V., Khon, S., Lunt, D.J., Mikolajewicz, U., Prange, M., Renssen, H., Schneider, B., Schulz, M., Bakker, P., Stone, E.J., Charbit, S., Gröger, M., Krebs-Kanzow, U., Ritz, S.P., Varma, V., Khon, S., Lunt, D.J., Mikolajewicz, U., Prange, M., Renssen, H., Schneider, B., and Schulz, M. more...
- Abstract
There is a growing number of proxy-based reconstructions detailing the climatic changes that occurred during the last interglacial period (LIG). This period is of special interest, because large parts of the globe were characterized by a warmer-than-present-day climate, making this period an interesting test bed for climate models in light of projected global warming. However, mainly because synchronizing the different palaeoclimatic records is difficult, there is no consensus on a global picture of LIG temperature changes. Here we present the first model inter-comparison of transient simulations covering the LIG period. By comparing the different simulations, we aim at investigating the common signal in the LIG temperature evolution, investigating the main driving forces behind it and at listing the climate feedbacks which cause the most apparent inter-model differences. The model inter-comparison shows a robust Northern Hemisphere July temperature evolution characterized by a maximum between 130-125 ka BP with temperatures 0.3 to 5.3K above present day. A Southern Hemisphere July temperature maximum, ?1.3 to 2.5K at around 128 ka BP, is only found when changes in the greenhouse gas concentrations are included. The robustness of simulated January temperatures is large in the Southern Hemisphere and the mid-latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere. For these regions maximum January temperature anomalies of respectively ?1 to 1.2K and ?0.8 to 2.1K are simulated for the period after 121 ka BP. In both hemispheres these temperature maxima are in line with the maximum in local summer insolation. In a number of specific regions, a common temperature evolution is not found amongst the models. We show that this is related to feedbacks within the climate system which largely determine the simulated LIG temperature evolution in these regions. Firstly, in the Arctic region, changes in the summer sea-ice cover control the evolution of LIG winter temperatures. Secondly, for the Atl more...
- Published
- 2013
- Full Text
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27. Large-scale features of Pliocene climate: results from the Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project
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Haywood, A.M., Hill, D.J., Dolan, A.M., Otto-Bliesner, B.L., Bragg, F., Chan, W.-L., Chandler, M.A., Contoux, C., Dowsett, H.J., Jost, A., Kamae, Y., Lohmann, G., Lunt, D.J., Abe-Ouchi, A., Pickering, S.J., Ramstein, G., Rosenbloom, N.A., Salzmann, U., Sohl, L., Stepanek, C., Ueda, H., Yan, Q., Zhang, Z., Haywood, A.M., Hill, D.J., Dolan, A.M., Otto-Bliesner, B.L., Bragg, F., Chan, W.-L., Chandler, M.A., Contoux, C., Dowsett, H.J., Jost, A., Kamae, Y., Lohmann, G., Lunt, D.J., Abe-Ouchi, A., Pickering, S.J., Ramstein, G., Rosenbloom, N.A., Salzmann, U., Sohl, L., Stepanek, C., Ueda, H., Yan, Q., and Zhang, Z. more...
- Abstract
Climate and environments of the mid-Pliocene warm period (3.264 to 3.025 Ma) have been extensively studied. Whilst numerical models have shed light on the nature of climate at the time, uncertainties in their predictions have not been systematically examined. The Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project quantifies uncertainties in model outputs through a coordinated multi-model and multi-model/data intercomparison. Whilst commonalities in model outputs for the Pliocene are clearly evident, we show substantial variation in the sensitivity of models to the implementation of Pliocene boundary conditions. Models appear able to reproduce many regional changes in temperature reconstructed from geological proxies. However, data/model comparison highlights that models potentially underestimate polar amplification. To assert this conclusion with greater confidence, limitations in the time-averaged proxy data currently available must be addressed. Furthermore, sensitivity tests exploring the known unknowns in modelling Pliocene climate specifically relevant to the high latitudes are essential (e.g. palaeogeography, gateways, orbital forcing and trace gasses). Estimates of longer-term sensitivity to CO2 (also known as Earth System Sensitivity; ESS), support previous work suggesting that ESS is greater than Climate Sensitivity (CS), and suggest that the ratio of ESS to CS is between 1 and 2, with a "best" estimate of 1.5. more...
- Published
- 2013
28. Corrigendum to 'The relative roles of CO2 and palaeogeography in determining late Miocene climate : results from a terrestrial model-data comparison' published in Clim. Past, 8, 1257–1285, 2012
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Bradshaw, C.D., Lunt, D.J., Flecker, R., Salzmann, U., Pound, M.J., Haywood, A.M., Eronen, J.T., Bradshaw, C.D., Lunt, D.J., Flecker, R., Salzmann, U., Pound, M.J., Haywood, A.M., and Eronen, J.T.
- Published
- 2012
29. A model for orbital pacing of methane hydrate destabilization during the Palaeogene.
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Biomarine Sciences, Sub Biomarine Sciences begr. 01-01-12, Lunt, D.J., Ridgwell, A., Sluijs, A., Zachos, J.C., Hunter, S., Haywood, A., Biomarine Sciences, Sub Biomarine Sciences begr. 01-01-12, Lunt, D.J., Ridgwell, A., Sluijs, A., Zachos, J.C., Hunter, S., and Haywood, A. more...
- Published
- 2011
30. Mountain uplift and the glaciation of North America : a sensitivity study
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Foster, G.L., Lunt, D.J., Parrish, R.R., Foster, G.L., Lunt, D.J., and Parrish, R.R.
- Abstract
The Miocene (~24 to ~5 million years ago) was a period of relative global warmth compared to the Quaternary (~2 million years ago to present; e.g. Zachos et al., 2001) and was characterised by the intermittent glaciation of Antarctica only. Paradoxically, the majority of available proxy data suggest that during the Miocene, pCO2 was similar, or even lower, than the pre-industrial levels (280 ppmv; Pagani et al., 1999; Pearson and Palmer, 2000; Kürschner et al., 1996, 2008) and at times probably crossed the modelled threshold value required for sustained glaciation in the Northern Hemisphere (DeConto et al., 2008). Records of ice rafted debris and the oxygen isotope composition of benthic foraminifera suggest that at several times over the last 25 million years substantial amounts of continental ice did build up in the Northern Hemisphere but none of these led to prolonged glaciation. In this contribution, we review evidence that suggests that in the Miocene the North American Cordillera was, at least in parts, considerably lower than today. We present new GCM simulations that imply that small amounts of uplift of the North American Cordillera result in significant cooling of the northern North American Continent. Offline ice sheet modelling, driven by these GCM outputs, suggests that with a reduced topography, inception of the Cordilleran ice sheet is prohibited. This suggests that uplift of the North American Cordillera in the Late Miocene may have played an important role in priming the climate for the intensification of Northern Hemisphere glaciation in the Late Pliocene. more...
- Published
- 2010
31. Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project (PlioMIP) : experimental design and boundary conditions (Experiment 1)
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Haywood, A.M., Dowsett, H.J., Otto-Bliesner, B., Chandler, M.A., Dolan, A.M., Hill, D.J., Lunt, D.J., Robinson, M.M., Rosenbloom, N., Salzmann, U., Sohl, L.E., Haywood, A.M., Dowsett, H.J., Otto-Bliesner, B., Chandler, M.A., Dolan, A.M., Hill, D.J., Lunt, D.J., Robinson, M.M., Rosenbloom, N., Salzmann, U., and Sohl, L.E. more...
- Abstract
In 2008 the temporal focus of the Palaeoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project was expanded to include a model intercomparison for the mid-Pliocene warm period (3.29–2.97 million years ago). This project is referred to as PlioMIP (Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project). Two experiments have been agreed upon and comprise phase 1 of PlioMIP. The first (Experiment 1) will be performed with atmosphere-only climate models. The second (Experiment 2) will utilise fully coupled ocean-atmosphere climate models. The aim of this paper is to provide a detailed model intercomparison project description which documents the experimental design in a more detailed way than has previously been done in the literature. Specifically, this paper describes the experimental design and boundary conditions that will be utilised for Experiment 1 of PlioMIP. more...
- Published
- 2010
32. Assessment of soil moisture fields from imperfect climate models with uncertain satellite observations
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Schumann, G., Lunt, D.J., Valdes, P.J., de Jeu, R.A.M., Scipal, K., Bates, P.D., Schumann, G., Lunt, D.J., Valdes, P.J., de Jeu, R.A.M., Scipal, K., and Bates, P.D.
- Published
- 2009
- Full Text
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33. The past is a guide to the future? Comparing Middle Pliocene vegetation with predicted biome distributions for the twenty-first century
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Salzmann, U., Haywood, A.M., Lunt, D.J., Salzmann, U., Haywood, A.M., and Lunt, D.J.
- Abstract
During the Middle Pliocene, the Earth experienced greater global warmth compared with today, coupled with higher atmospheric CO2 concentrations. To determine the extent to which the Middle Pliocene can be used as a ‘test bed’ for future warming, we compare data and model-based Middle Pliocene vegetation with simulated global biome distributions for the mid- and late twenty-first century. The best agreement is found when a Middle Pliocene biome reconstruction is compared with a future scenario using 560ppmv atmospheric CO2. In accordance with palaeobotanical data, all model simulations indicate a generally warmer and wetter climate, resulting in a northward shift of the taiga–tundra boundary and a spread of tropical savannahs and woodland in Africa and Australia at the expense of deserts. Our data–model comparison reveals differences in the distribution of polar vegetation, which indicate that the high latitudes during the Middle Pliocene were still warmer than its predicted modern analogue by several degrees. However, our future scenarios do not consider multipliers associated with ‘long-term’ climate sensitivity. Changes in global temperature, and thus biome distributions, at higher atmospheric CO2 levels will not have reached an equilibrium state (as is the case for the Middle Pliocene) by the end of this century. more...
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- 2009
34. Pliocene climate and seasonality in North Atlantic shelf seas
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Williams, M., Haywood, A., Harper, E.M., Johnson, A.L.A., Knowles, T., Leng, Melanie, Lunt, D.J., Okamura, B., Taylor, P.D., Zalasiewicz, J., Williams, M., Haywood, A., Harper, E.M., Johnson, A.L.A., Knowles, T., Leng, Melanie, Lunt, D.J., Okamura, B., Taylor, P.D., and Zalasiewicz, J. more...
- Abstract
This paper reviews North Atlantic shelf seas palaeoclimate during the interval 4–3Ma, prior to and incorporating the ‘Mid-Pliocene warm period’ (ca 3.29–2.97Ma). Fossil assemblages and stable isotope data demonstrate northwards extension of subtropical faunas along the coast of the Carolinas–Virginia (Yorktown and Duplin Formations) relative to the present day, suggesting a more vigorous Florida Current, with reduced seasonality and warm water extending north of Cape Hatteras (reconstructed annual range for Virginia 12–30°C). This interpretation supports conceptual models of increased meridional heat transport for the Pliocene. Sea temperatures for Florida (Lower Pinecrest Beds) were similar to or slightly cooler than (summers 25–27°C) today, and were probably influenced by seasonal upwelling of cold deep water. Reduced seasonality is also apparent in the Coralline Crag Formation of the southern North Sea, with ostracods suggesting winter sea temperatures of 10°C (modern 4°C). However, estimates from Pliocene bivalves (3.6–16.6°C) are similar to or cooler than the present day. This ‘mixed’ signal is problematic given warmer seas in the Carolinas–Virginia, and climate model and oceanographic data that show warmer seas in the ‘Mid-Pliocene’ eastern North Atlantic. This may be because the Coralline Crag Formation was deposited prior to peak Mid-Pliocene warmth. more...
- Published
- 2009
35. Comparing transient, accelerated, and equilibrium simulations of the last 30 000 years with the GENIE-1 model
- Author
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Lunt, D.J., Williamson, M.S., Valdes, P.J., Lenton, T.M., Marsh, R., Lunt, D.J., Williamson, M.S., Valdes, P.J., Lenton, T.M., and Marsh, R.
- Abstract
We examine several aspects of the oceanatmosphere system over the last 30 000 years, by carrying out simulations with prescribed ice sheets, atmospheric CO2 concentration, and orbital parameters. We use the GENIE-1 model with a frictional geostrophic ocean, dynamic sea ice, an energy balance atmosphere, and a land-surface scheme with fixed vegetation. A transient simulation, with boundary conditions derived from ice-core records and ice sheet reconstructions, is compared with equilibrium snapshot simulations, including the Last Glacial Maximum (21 000 years before present; 21 kyrBP), mid-Holocene (6 kyrBP) and preindustrial. The equilibrium snapshot simulations are all very similar to their corresponding time period in the transient simulation, indicating that over the last 30 000 years, the model’s ocean-atmosphere system is close to equilibrium with its boundary conditions. However, our simulations neglect the transfer of fresh water from and to the ocean, resulting from the growth and decay of ice sheets, which would, in reality, lead to greater disequilibrium. Additionally, the GENIE-1 model exhibits a rather limited response in terms of its Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) over the 30 000 years; a more sensitive AMOC would also be likely to lead to greater disequilibrium. We investigate the method of accelerating the boundary conditions of a transient simulation and find that the Southern Ocean is the region most affected by the acceleration. The Northern Hemisphere, even with a factor of 10 acceleration, is relatively unaffected. The results are robust to changes to several tunable parameters in the model. They also hold when a higher vertical resolution is used in the ocean. more...
- Published
- 2006
36. Stability of the thermohaline circulation in different complexities and resolutions of earth system model (abstract of paper presented at 3rd EGU General Assembly)
- Author
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Marsh, R., Myerscough, R.J., Lenton, T.M., Price, A.R., Cox, S.J., Edwards, N.R., Lunt, D.J., Marsh, R., Myerscough, R.J., Lenton, T.M., Price, A.R., Cox, S.J., Edwards, N.R., and Lunt, D.J.
- Abstract
We use the GENIE Earth system modelling framework to examine how the stability / hysteresis diagram of the thermohaline circulation (THC) depends on the use of complex (GCM) or simple (energy-moisture balance) atmosphere models and how it varies with ocean resolution. The model versions all use the GOLDSTEIN frictional geostrophic ocean, but with 3 different horizontal resolutions (and 8 depth layers in each case): (i) 36x36 longitudesine (latitude), (ii) 72x72 longitude-sine(latitude), (iii) 64x32 longitude-latitude. To these we have coupled the Reading Intermediate General Circulation Model (IGCM) at T21 resolution with 7 vertical levels. We contrast this with earlier work using an energy-moisture balance model (EMBM) and ocean resolution (i). For each model version, we construct an ensemble of runs in which we vary atmospheric freshwater transport from the Atlantic to Pacific. In some cases we also vary a parameter controlling equator to pole freshwater transport. The resulting ensembles are run toward equilibrium and then restarts are used to search parameter space for regions of THC bi-stability. The resulting hundreds of thousands of years of 3D ocean-atmosphere model integration were achieved by using UK Grid computing resources, including 6 nodes of the National Grid Service, and additional clusters in Norwich, Southampton and Bristol. A specially developed database system was used to execute and manage the runs. The results are expected to shed light on whether a dynamical atmosphere alters or removes the bi-stability of the THC, and whether THC stability is sensitive to ocean resolution. more...
- Published
- 2006
37. Selection of piloting parameters in pressure hydrometallurgy.
- Author
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Adams M.D., Metallurgical plant design and operation Perth, Western Australia 06-Sep-0407-Sep-04, Anderson P., Lunt D.J., van der Meulen D.R., Adams M.D., Metallurgical plant design and operation Perth, Western Australia 06-Sep-0407-Sep-04, Anderson P., Lunt D.J., and van der Meulen D.R. more...
- Abstract
Approaches to the piloting and scale-up of oxidative and pressure leaching are presented, with particular emphasis on scale-up ratios, using examples from many projects. For pressure leach flowsheets, the duration of the pilot runs is critically important in proving the integrated process. For well-proven processes applied to typical feed materials, such as pressure oxidation of auriferous sulphide concentrates, around 100 hours of piloting may be sufficient. For novel flowsheets or atypical feed mineralogies or process waters, pilot runs of 1 000 to 2 000 hours may be necessary. Piloting of a process may be limited by the facilities of testing laboratories, therefore demonstration-scale testing of innovative flowsheets may be necessary, and specific large-scale testing of units for the scale-up of equipment is routine., Approaches to the piloting and scale-up of oxidative and pressure leaching are presented, with particular emphasis on scale-up ratios, using examples from many projects. For pressure leach flowsheets, the duration of the pilot runs is critically important in proving the integrated process. For well-proven processes applied to typical feed materials, such as pressure oxidation of auriferous sulphide concentrates, around 100 hours of piloting may be sufficient. For novel flowsheets or atypical feed mineralogies or process waters, pilot runs of 1 000 to 2 000 hours may be necessary. Piloting of a process may be limited by the facilities of testing laboratories, therefore demonstration-scale testing of innovative flowsheets may be necessary, and specific large-scale testing of units for the scale-up of equipment is routine. more...
- Published
- 2004
38. The past is a guide to the future? Comparing Middle Pliocene vegetation with predicted biome distributions for the twenty-first century
- Author
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Salzmann, U, primary, Haywood, A.M, additional, and Lunt, D.J, additional
- Published
- 2008
- Full Text
- View/download PDF
39. Design of gold projects in Ghana.
- Author
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Lunt D.J., Third African Mining Conference Windhoek, Namibia 07-Jun-9509-Jun-95, Kirby E., Ritchie I.C., Lunt D.J., Third African Mining Conference Windhoek, Namibia 07-Jun-9509-Jun-95, Kirby E., and Ritchie I.C. more...
- Abstract
Over an 8 year period between 1986 and 1994, Minproc Engineers Ltd. has undertaken the design, construction and commissioning of 6 grass roots gold projects in Ghana. The plants range from tailings retreatment to free milling and refractory ore processing. Treatment route selection was dependent on the lithology and mineralogy of the gold ore from the two major systems: Birimian and Tarkwaian. The Tarkwaian system resembles Witwatersrand gold reefs, whilst the Birimian deposits, notably Ashanti and Bogosu are characterised by highly complex mineralogy in which gold occurs in association with iron sulphide species (pyrite, arsenopyrite and pyrrhotite). This refractory ore requires an oxidation process. Sulphide ores are overlain by oxide and transitional ores which, in early operation, may be fed as mixtures to the plant. The design of the projects is discussed and the key issues affecting the selection of grinding equipment, flotation circuit and the 2-stage roasting process at Bogosu and the bioleaching at Ashanti are outlined., Over an 8 year period between 1986 and 1994, Minproc Engineers Ltd. has undertaken the design, construction and commissioning of 6 grass roots gold projects in Ghana. The plants range from tailings retreatment to free milling and refractory ore processing. Treatment route selection was dependent on the lithology and mineralogy of the gold ore from the two major systems: Birimian and Tarkwaian. The Tarkwaian system resembles Witwatersrand gold reefs, whilst the Birimian deposits, notably Ashanti and Bogosu are characterised by highly complex mineralogy in which gold occurs in association with iron sulphide species (pyrite, arsenopyrite and pyrrhotite). This refractory ore requires an oxidation process. Sulphide ores are overlain by oxide and transitional ores which, in early operation, may be fed as mixtures to the plant. The design of the projects is discussed and the key issues affecting the selection of grinding equipment, flotation circuit and the 2-stage roasting process at Bogosu and the bioleaching at Ashanti are outlined. more...
- Published
- 1995
40. Use of the ammonia cyanide leach system for gold copper ores with reference to the retreatment of the torco tailings
- Author
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Costello, M.C., primary, Ritchie, I.C., additional, and Lunt, D.J., additional
- Published
- 1992
- Full Text
- View/download PDF
41. Effects of atmospheric dynamics and ocean resolution on bi-stability of the thermohaline circulation examined using the Grid ENabled Integrated Earth system modelling (GENIE) framework.
- Author
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Lenton, T.M., Marsh, R., Price, A.R., Lunt, D.J., Aksenov, Y., Annan, J.D., Cooper-Chadwick, T., Cox, S.J., Edwards, N.R., Goswami, S., Hargreaves, J.C., Harris, P.P., Jiao, Z., Livina, V.N., Payne, A.J., Rutt, I.C., Shepherd, J.G., Valdes, P.J., Williams, G., and Williamson, M.S. more...
- Subjects
OCEAN circulation ,ATMOSPHERIC models ,NUMERICAL grid generation (Numerical analysis) ,HYSTERESIS - Abstract
We have used the Grid ENabled Integrated Earth system modelling (GENIE) framework to undertake a systematic search for bi-stability of the ocean thermohaline circulation (THC) for different surface grids and resolutions of 3-D ocean (GOLDSTEIN) under a 3-D dynamical atmosphere model (IGCM). A total of 407,000 years were simulated over a three month period using Grid computing. We find bi-stability of the THC despite significant, quasi-periodic variability in its strength driven by variability in the dynamical atmosphere. The position and width of the hysteresis loop depends on the choice of surface grid (longitude-latitude or equal area), but is less sensitive to changes in ocean resolution. For the same ocean resolution, the region of bi-stability is broader with the IGCM than with a simple energy-moisture balance atmosphere model (EMBM). Feedbacks involving both ocean and atmospheric dynamics are found to promote THC bi-stability. THC switch-off leads to increased import of freshwater at the southern boundary of the Atlantic associated with meridional overturning circulation. This is counteracted by decreased freshwater import associated with gyre and diffusive transports. However, these are localised such that the density gradient between North and South is reduced tending to maintain the THC off state. THC switch-off can also generate net atmospheric freshwater input to the Atlantic that tends to maintain the off state. The ocean feedbacks are present in all resolutions, across most of the bi-stable region, whereas the atmosphere feedback is strongest in the longitude–latitude grid and around the transition where the THC off state is disappearing. Here the net oceanic freshwater import due to the overturning mode weakens, promoting THC switch-on, but the atmosphere counteracts this by increasing net freshwater input. This increases the extent of THC bi-stability in this version of the model. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR] more...
- Published
- 2007
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42. SAG mill circuit selection, scale-up and sizing.
- Author
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Lane G., Lunt D.J., Lane G., and Lunt D.J.
- Abstract
Factors in selecting a comminution circuit include project type and size, ore characteristics and properties, circuit costs, testwork costs and impact on project schedule, and scale-up risks. Cadia Hill in New South Wales and Bronzewing in Western Australia, while the physical properties of their ores are very similar, are at opposite ends of the spectrum in terms of project size, ore variability and circuit complexity. They therefore exhibit significant differences in the possibilities for offsetting development costs against increased project costs. Cadia Hill opted for a gyratory crusher, semiautogenous grinding, pebble crushing and two ball mills, with 20 000 kW primary mill power and 17 500 kW secondary mill power, designed on the basis of bench tests and a pilot study. Bronzewing has two 3 400 semiautogenous grinding circuits, with a jaw crusher for oxide ores and two-stage crushing for primary ores. Design was based on bench tests only., Factors in selecting a comminution circuit include project type and size, ore characteristics and properties, circuit costs, testwork costs and impact on project schedule, and scale-up risks. Cadia Hill in New South Wales and Bronzewing in Western Australia, while the physical properties of their ores are very similar, are at opposite ends of the spectrum in terms of project size, ore variability and circuit complexity. They therefore exhibit significant differences in the possibilities for offsetting development costs against increased project costs. Cadia Hill opted for a gyratory crusher, semiautogenous grinding, pebble crushing and two ball mills, with 20 000 kW primary mill power and 17 500 kW secondary mill power, designed on the basis of bench tests and a pilot study. Bronzewing has two 3 400 semiautogenous grinding circuits, with a jaw crusher for oxide ores and two-stage crushing for primary ores. Design was based on bench tests only. more...
43. The design of the Sansu concentrator and Biox facility.
- Author
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Nicholson H.M., Proceedings XVth CMMI congress held in Sun City, South Africa 04-Sep-9409-Sep-94, Lunt D.J., Marais H.J., Ritchie I.C., Nicholson H.M., Proceedings XVth CMMI congress held in Sun City, South Africa 04-Sep-9409-Sep-94, Lunt D.J., Marais H.J., and Ritchie I.C. more...
- Abstract
The sulphide plant is designed to increase production from the Ashanti mine to over 1 000 000 oz/a Au by 1995. An integral component of this expansion is the construction of a 6 500 t/d concentrator and a 790 t/d biooxidation facility. These facilities will treat a complex carbonaceous refractory ore consisting predominantly of arsenopyrite and pyrite. Design has followed extensive laboratory and pilot-plant testwork that examined a variety of process options. The final flowsheet includes semiautogenous grinding, flash flotation, column and conventional flotation, the Biox process and carbon in leach gold recovery., The sulphide plant is designed to increase production from the Ashanti mine to over 1 000 000 oz/a Au by 1995. An integral component of this expansion is the construction of a 6 500 t/d concentrator and a 790 t/d biooxidation facility. These facilities will treat a complex carbonaceous refractory ore consisting predominantly of arsenopyrite and pyrite. Design has followed extensive laboratory and pilot-plant testwork that examined a variety of process options. The final flowsheet includes semiautogenous grinding, flash flotation, column and conventional flotation, the Biox process and carbon in leach gold recovery. more...
44. Use of the ammonia cyanide leach system for gold copper ores with reference to the retreatment of the Torco tailings.
- Author
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Costello M.C., Lunt D.J., Ritchie I.C., Costello M.C., Lunt D.J., and Ritchie I.C.
- Abstract
The tailings result from the 2 500 000 tonnes of refractory copper silicate ore, also containing gold and some silver, which was reduction roasted by the TORCO process at Akjoujt, Mauritania, in the early 1970s. They assay 3.1 g/t Au and 0.8-1.0% Cu and have a cyanide consumption in the range 5.5-6.5 kg NaCN/t ore, making them uneconomical to treat conventionally. The use of an ammonia-cyanide mixture can reduce the cyanide consumption to 0.5-1.5 kg/t at the expense of 4 kg/t NH3 and yield gold recoveries in the range 80-90%. After four years of sampling, testing and project development, the medium-tonnage agitation leach plant is due to be commissioned in the first half of 1992. A summary is given of the testwork results which led to the flowsheet selection and the process and plant are briefly described., The tailings result from the 2 500 000 tonnes of refractory copper silicate ore, also containing gold and some silver, which was reduction roasted by the TORCO process at Akjoujt, Mauritania, in the early 1970s. They assay 3.1 g/t Au and 0.8-1.0% Cu and have a cyanide consumption in the range 5.5-6.5 kg NaCN/t ore, making them uneconomical to treat conventionally. The use of an ammonia-cyanide mixture can reduce the cyanide consumption to 0.5-1.5 kg/t at the expense of 4 kg/t NH3 and yield gold recoveries in the range 80-90%. After four years of sampling, testing and project development, the medium-tonnage agitation leach plant is due to be commissioned in the first half of 1992. A summary is given of the testwork results which led to the flowsheet selection and the process and plant are briefly described. more...
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