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As European governments face resurging waves of COVID-19, non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) continue to be the primary tool for infection control. However, updated estimates of their relative effectiveness have been absent for Europe’s second wave, largely due to a lack of collated data that considers the increased subnational variation and diversity of NPIs. We collect the largest dataset of NPI implementation dates in Europe, spanning 114 subnational areas in 7 countries, with a systematic categorisation of interventions tailored to the second wave. Using a hierarchical Bayesian transmission model, we estimate the effectiveness of 17 NPIs from local case and death data. We manually validate the data, address limitations in modelling from previous studies, and extensively test the robustness of our estimates. The combined effect of all NPIs was smaller relative to estimates from the first half of 2020, indicating the strong influence of safety measures and individual protective behaviours--such as distancing--that persisted after the first wave. Closing specific businesses was highly effective. Gathering restrictions were highly effective but only for the strictest limits. We find smaller effects for closing educational institutions compared to the first wave, suggesting that safer operation of schools was possible with a set of stringent safety measures including testing and tracing, preventing mixing, and smaller classes. These results underscore that effectiveness estimates from the early stage of an epidemic are measured relative to pre-pandemic behaviour. Updated estimates are required to inform policy in an ongoing pandemic.

Spatial transformer networks (STNs) were designed to enable convolutional neural networks (CNNs) to learn invariance to image transformations. STNs were originally proposed to transform CNN feature maps as well as input images. This enables the use of more complex features when predicting transformation parameters. However, since STNs perform a purely spatial transformation, they do not, in the general case, have the ability to align the feature maps of a transformed image with those of its original. STNs are therefore unable to support invariance when transforming CNN feature maps. We present a simple proof for this and study the practical implications, showing that this inability is coupled with decreased classification accuracy. We therefore investigate alternative STN architectures that make use of complex features. We find that while deeper localization networks are difficult to train, localization networks that share parameters with the classification network remain stable as they grow deeper, which allows for higher classification accuracy on difficult datasets. Finally, we explore the interaction between localization network complexity and iterative image alignment., Comment: 13 pages, 7 figures, 6 tables