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This report presents the results and interpretation for Phase 5 of an integrated environmental monitoring programme that is being undertaken around two proposed shale gas sites in England – Preston New Road, Lancashire and Kirby Misperton, North Yorkshire. The report should be read in conjunction with previous reports freely available through the project website1 . These provide additional background to the project, presentation of earlier results and the rationale for establishment of the different elements of the monitoring programme.

This report describes the results of activities carried out as part of the Environmental Monitoring Project (EMP) led by the British Geological Survey (BGS) in areas around two shale gas sites in England – Kirby Misperton (Vale of Pickering, North Yorkshire) and Preston New Road (Fylde, Lancashire). It focuses on the monitoring undertaken during the period April 2018–March 2019 but also considers this in the context of earlier monitoring results that have been covered in reports for earlier phases of the project (Phases I–IV) 2 . The EMP project is a multi-partner project involving BGS together with Public Health England (PHE), University of Birmingham, University of Bristol, University of Manchester, Royal Holloway University of London (RHUL) and University of York. The work has been enabled by funding from a combination of the BGS National Capability programme, a grant awarded by the UK Government’s Department for Business Energy & Industrial Strategy (BEIS) and additional benefit-in-kind contributions from all partners. The project comprises the comprehensive monitoring of different environment compartments and properties at and around the two shale-gas sites. The component parts of the EMP are all of significance when considering environmental and human health risks associated with shale gas development. Included are seismicity, ground motion, water (groundwater and surface water), soil gas, greenhouse gases, air quality, and radon. The monitoring started before hydraulic fracturing had taken place at the two locations, and so the results obtained before the initiation of operations at the shale-gas sites represent baseline conditions. It is important to characterise adequately the baseline conditions so that any future changes caused by shale gas operations, including hydraulic fracturing, can be identified. This is also the case for any other new activities that may impact those compartments of the environment being monitored as part of the project. In the per

High-quality environmental baseline monitoring data are being collected in areas around two proposed shale gas sites near Kirby Misperton, North Yorkshire and Little Plumpton Lancashire. Monitoring has now been on-going for over two years and has produced an internationally unique data set that will allow any future changes that arise from industrial activities at either or both shale gas sites to be detected and characterised, as well as providing a significant resource for future research. The monitoring includes: water quality, air quality, seismicity, ground motion, soil gas and radon in air. This report presents the results of monitoring in the Vale of Pickering, within which the Kirby Misperton shale gas site (KM8) is located, for the period April 2017–March 2018. It also includes the results of atmospheric composition measurements made near the Little Plumpton (Preston New Road) site. Earlier results and other monitoring in Lancashire are reported elsewhere and can be accessed from the British Geological Survey’s website1. As well as providing valuable insight into the importance of establishing robust information on the conditions before shale gas operations start, it also highlights the challenges in establishing effective monitoring and producing reliable results. For groundwater, this includes the importance of: developing and flushing newly installed boreholes; the spatial variation in water quality and; the selection of monitoring and measuring techniques. Having two years of data has allowed comparison between years. The preliminary analysis reported here has shown that sample populations were not significantly different between the two years. This is directly relevant to the duration of monitoring required by legislation, with the evidence supporting a baseline monitoring period of at least 12 months before any site operations start. The seismic monitoring network installed for measuring background seismicity has operated successfully throughout the r

This report describes a system designed for use in nuclear power stations, or at other infrastructure sites, where a rapid response may be required when the ground acceleration caused by an earthquake exceeds a certain threshold. The system uses free-field acceleration measurement to trigger a physical alarm. The data acquisition and alarm functions are carried out on a PC that then triggers an alarm by use of a relay. The system described here has two such PCs for redundancy, although a single PC could perform the required task.

We use shear wave splitting (SWS) above microearthquakes to monitor stress variations before the 2010 March and April flank and summit eruptions of Eyjafjallajökull volcano in Iceland. SWS time delays before Eyjafjallajökull show characteristic variations similar to those seen before earthquakes. The time delays display a nearly linear increase before the eruption, an abrupt change of slope and a rapid nearly linear decrease until the flank eruption begins. Similar variations before earthquakes are interpreted as stress-accumulation increases, and stress-relaxation decreases as microcracks coalesce onto the eventual fault plane. The changes in SWS before Eyjafjallajökull are interpreted as a similar stress-accumulation increase, as magma penetrates the crust, and stress-relaxation decrease as microcracks coalesce onto the magma conduit prior to magma release. We suggest that the remarkable similarity between stress changes before eruption and earthquake is strong evidence for the New Geophysics of a critically microcracked crust.

Impoundment of reservoirs is known to sometimes cause earthquakes. At Glendoe in the Scottish Highlands the first large-scale hydro-electric power station to be built in the UK in almost 50 years was built in 2007/2008. In May 2008, a small network of seismometers was installed around the area due to be flooded at Glendoe to monitor any possible seismicity and these stations were maintained for a year after impoundment. Although a number of local earthquakes were recorded with good signal to noise ratios, no seismicity was recorded that can be attributed to the reservoir. This is perhaps because the dam is low, with a maximum water depth of 35m, whereas most reservoir induced seismicity has been observed at dams with water depths of over 100m.

The Soufriere Hills Volcano on Montserrat in the West Indies began to erupt in July 1995. By the end of the year staff from the British Geological Survey (BGS) were involved in monitoring the eruption and the BGS either jointly or singly managed the Montserrat Volcano Observatory between September 1996 and April 2008. In this time a wealth of seismic data was collected by the observatory corresponding to many types of volcanic activity. This data has been archived at the BGS and this report aims to explain how to access it and to put the data in the context of the various seismic monitoring networks that recorded it.

Episodes of volcanic unrest do not always lead to an eruption. Many of the commonly monitored signals of volcanic unrest, including surface deformation and increased degassing, can reflect perturbations to a deeper magma storage system, and may persist for years without accompanying eruptive activity. Signals of volcanic unrest can also persist following the end of an eruption. Furthermore, the most reliable eruption precursor, the occurrence of low-frequency seismicity, appears to reflect very shallow processes and typically precedes eruptions by only hours to days. Thus, the identification of measurable and unambiguous indicators that are sensitive to changes in the mid-level conduit system during an intermediate stage of magma ascent is of critical importance to the field of volcano monitoring. Here, using data from the ongoing eruption of the Soufrière Hills Volcano, Montserrat, we show that ∼90° changes in the orientation of double-couple fault–plane solutions for high-frequency ‘volcanotectonic’ (VT) earthquakes reflect pressurization of the mid-level conduit system prior to eruption and may precede the onset of eruptive episodes by weeks to months. Our results demonstrate that, once the characteristic stress field response to magma ascent at a given volcano is established, a relatively simple analysis of VT fault–plane solutions may be used to make intermediateterm assessments of the likelihood of future eruptive activity.