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Several countries face the challenge of reducing the intermittency of solar photovoltaic generation due to changes in climatic conditions. Considering that Brazil has continental-scale dimensions a...

The main objective of this study is analyze the economic impact on residential fees under transition to distributed photovoltaic generation systems connected to the distribution networks in Brazil. We conducted several analyses, including assessing the Brazilian context through a cash flow competitiveness analysis, to characterize the effects that tariffs have on energy transitions in Brazil. In this context, our research estimates: i) the increase in fees for non-migrating consumers; ii) the revenue eviction of the distribution companies; and iii) the decrease in collection of government taxes under a net metering strategy adopted to encourage energy transition in Brazil. By analyzing the impacts on tariff scenario estimates, the results show that the period between 2023 and 2030 is crucial from a Brazilian energy policy perspective. In addition, we concluded that the use of the net metering model, currently applied in Brazil, could cause residential fee increases of 22–47% by 2035.

This paper analyzes the long-term and short-term effects of oil prices on ethanol, gasoline, and sugar price forecasts. With the help of a vector error correction with exogenous variable (VECX) model, and using the forecast of oil prices as an exogenous variable, we obtained simultaneous forecasts for ethanol, gasoline, and sugar prices. Due to the lack of a robust methodology for forecasting oil prices, we forecasted three scenarios that took the historical behavior of oil prices into account, and a fourth scenario that took into account the prediction of a prominent agency that specializes in forecasting commodity prices. The forecast period was from January 2019 to December 2022. The results indicate that: (i) there are long-term effects of the oil price forecast on the forecasts of the other three prices; (ii) in the short term, the ethanol and gasoline price forecasts were more sensitive to changes in future oil prices than the sugar price forecast; and (iii) the future volatility of the price of sugar is less than the future volatility of the other two prices. These results can assist agents in the sugarcane and energy sectors when making strategic decisions.

Several countries face the challenge of reducing the intermittency of solar photovoltaic (PV) generation due to changes in climatic conditions. Considering that Brazil has continental-scale dimensions and diversified geography, an alternative that allows smoothing the intermittency in solar PV power generation is needed. The novelty of this study lies in the proposal to allocate the production of PV solar energy between the interconnected regions of the country efficiently, forming an optimal portfolio with the highest productivity and the least intermittency. Thus, the regional allocation process for solar generation is formulated through an optimization problem with two objective functions: to increase the country's productivity and simultaneously control the variability of the supply of solar energy. This study concluded that the current planning models for the expansion in Brazil (both centralized and distributed generation) do not consider the variability of incident solar radiation in its five regions; therefore, the formation of the current regional portfolio of investments in power generation from solar PV energy is not efficient.

The consolidation of second generation ethanol will provide a greater amount of ethanol without increasing sugarcane acreage, but two technologies have emerged that use sugarcane bagasse as a feedstock: the generation of bioelectricity and second generation ethanol. As a result, a new discussion has arisen for the future configuration of the sugarcane industry: should bagasse be used to generate bioelectricity or produce second generation ethanol? Due to the high volatility of prices, for both electricity and anhydrous ethanol, the decision is complex, and higher volatility of price is associated with greater risk in this decision. This article presents a bi-objective optimization model to decide efficiently the percentage of the available sugarcane bagasse that should be allocated to each of these options in order to maximize the average return and, at the same time, minimize the risk inherent in price level volatilities. The results for four possible scenarios are presented; it is concluded that the scenario that presents a bioelectricity production cost of US$ 50/MWh and a cost of second generation ethanol production of US$ 0.30/liter has a higher return and lower risk to the investor. In this scenario, the allocation of bagasse for second generation ethanol production is 84%.

In this paper, we examine the winning bids of the biodiesel auctions conducted by the National Regulatory Agency for Oil, Gas, and Biofuels (ANP) in Brazil from 2012 to 2019. The public policy to develop the Brazilian biodiesel market had on the auction a fundamental pillar, providing stability for both suppliers and demanders. During the study period, the auction design had a stable framework of rules, enabling conditions for understanding competitors' behavior by studying their bids. Initially, we present an overview of the state of the art on the biodiesel program in Brazil and highlight the scarcity of published studies on biodiesel auctions. In sequence, we classify the auction according to the economic theory, showing that it fits the multiunit, sequential, first-price English auction design, and we review the specific literature for this auction model. Then, we analyze the database structure and investigate the presence of information asymmetries among bidders, using cumulative probability comparison as well as the two-sample Kolmogorov-Smirnov test and the t-statistic test for means. Results offer strong evidence in favor of information symmetry. Later, we check the hypothesis of common values on the data, applying a parametric test to verify the presence of the winner's curse. Results corroborate the existence of the winner's curse and the common values paradigm, discarding the application of the independent private-values paradigm to the data. Finally, we comment on the possibility of further studies on the topic.

Since the 1997 end of the monopoly on the exploration and production of oil and gas in Brazil, there has been an explosion of activity in this industry. This includes four instances of approved unitization involving Petrobras (owned by the Brazilian government) and another 12 unitization cases being evaluated by ANP, the Brazilian oil industry regulator. In most of these cases, a polarization between private oil/gas companies operating in Brazil and Petrobras was apparent. In addition, unitization is further complicated in this country because three distinct operating regimes are allowed: concession contracts, production sharing agreements, and onerous assignment. This paper evaluates these strategies according to game theory, makes policy recommendations, and also seeks to support the drafting of regulations, suggesting it would be better to aim at exploration/production to promote rapid convergence in unitization.

This article proposes a model that allows thermoelectric power plants to identify the risks and opportunities that exist during the marketing of electricity in “hybrid” markets, where electricity is offered in two types of environments: regulated and free. Because electricity generated in Brazil is predominantly hydraulic, it has adopted a scheme of centralized dispatch through a chain of optimization models, the natural gas thermal power plants enter in a complementary manner, which mitigates operational risk in dry periods. In this article, the value of operational flexibility will be estimated, and a model will be proposed to help thermoelectric power plants with energy-marketing decisions in both regulated and free markets. The results indicate that paying a premium for the availability of generation capacity can significantly stimulate the development of new projects in thermoelectric generation.

The objective of this paper is to present a methodology to estimate the price curve of electricity during periods of energy deficit. This study is based on long-term cointegration relationships between the gross domestic product and the consumption of electricity in Brazil. The methodology estimates the price for each percentage unit deficit, thereby giving a curve with levels of deficit that can vary from 1% to 100%, in contrast to the current curve of prices in deficit, which is restricted to four levels. Prices in deficit are important parameters exogenous to the chain of models for planning the operation of electric power in Brazil, so the application of this methodology should have a positive impact on the calculation of marginal costs of operation and expansion, as well as on the calculation of the spot price.

The objective of this article is to present a methodology to estimate the marginal cost of electric energy deficit in the long-term using input–output (I–O) analysis. We obtain a deficit marginal cost (DMC) curve that is not limited to a small number of levels, such as the curve used currently in Brazil, which is limited to four levels. The marginal cost of deficit is an important exogenous parameter used in the model’s chain to calculate the operation’s marginal cost and short-term market pricing. The electric energy deficit is a temporary lack of continuity in meeting demand, which is usually predictable and involves prior notice to the consumer. The cause of this deficit may be a lack of investment and/or low water inflows that impact the production of hydroelectric power plants. In this study, the marginal cost of the deficit is obtained from restrictions on the provision of electricity for productive sectors and by calculating the corresponding impact on the gross domestic product. The proposed metho...

This article proposes a model capable of quantitatively identifying the magnitude of competitive pressures present in the electricity commercialization. Different from previous studies investigating companies' cost evolution and consumer final prices after and before reforms, this article attempts to make a contribution to the theme by proposing a model, which allows the illustration of major competitive pressures introduced by the worldwide deregulation of electricity sectors, initiated in the 1980s, enhanced in the 1990s, and dynamically evolving until present days. This article demonstrates its application to the Brazilian electricity industry, which is presently partially deregulated. The case study illustrates that referred model can be applied to any commercialization industry, independently of their deregulation level.

This paper intends to present a contribution to the development of techniques of decision-making in international projects of exploration and production of petroleum. A case study of the Multi-Attribute Utility Theory (MAUT) was developed and applied to define priorities among ten offshore exploration investment opportunities around the world offered to a Brazilian petroleum multinational company, according to decision-makers' preferences. The MAUT model proposed shows for the first time a combination of operational, political and technological risks, resulting in a quite complete formulation to describe quantitatively the decision-making process. It is important to emphasize that this paper presents an unpublished model to evaluate political risks whose detailed analysis is currently of extreme importance for international investments in petroleum projects.

This paper describes a competitive approach to electric power generation in Brazil. The decision-making process is modeled on Nash–Cournot equilibrium, wherein players (subsystems) make simultaneous decisions in relation to the quantities to be produced. The objective is to present a model in which each subsystem independently manages its operations, thus creating conditions for each region to develop according to its own peculiarity. In this approach, the importance of accurately dimensioning transmission lines is highlighted, since it is what determines the competitive degree among different subsystems. The results show that independent operation by subsystems can be implemented in Brazil with a low investment in the grid.

This paper presents a valuation study of operational flexibility in the complex Brazilian Power System. Thermopower plants represent operational flexibility for the national system operator provided they can be dispatched in dry periods to supply part of the load when reservoir waters are too low. Deficit costs can be avoided as a result. We have adopted a real options approach to calculate the fair value of a financial subsidy to be paid to thermal generators for their availability to the system. A financial subsidy is mandatory for their economic feasibility and, therefore, for increased thermopower capacity in the Brazilian Power System. This is why this policy is currently being studied by Brazil's federal government. In order to illustrate our modeling we have run the model for the southeast subsystem. We found a flexibility value of US$4.52 billion, which represents US$497/MW per year. This means that a 100 MW thermopower plant should receive US$49,700 for each year of its economic lifetime as a fair premium incentive to investments.

The aim of this study is to analyze the behavior of gross domestic product (GDP) compared to electricity consumption in Brazil to estimate the curve of deficit marginal cost. The deficit cost is used as exogenous parameter in the chain of models for planning the operation and expansion of a hydrothermal system as part of the total cost of operation. The results show a cointegration relationship between GDP and electricity consumption; therefore, there is a long-term equilibrium relationship between GDP and electricity consumption. This relationship is used to estimate the curve of deficit marginal cost. The possible short-term imbalance can be mitigated using the vector error correction model (VEC).

Este trabalho apresenta o desenvolvimento teórico sobre a análise de projetos de exploração e produção de petróleo, desde a avaliação econômica tradicional através do Fluxo de Caixa Descontado até a apresentação da Teoria da Utilidade Multiatributo (MAUT), que possibilita a consideração dos riscos e incertezas típicos dos investimentos internacionais no setor upstream do petróleo em um novo ambiente competitivo entre as firmas. Por fim, o trabalho inclui um estudo de caso sobre a aplicação da MAUT na priorização de dez oportunidades exploratórias offshore ao redor do mundo oferecidas a uma multinacional brasileira fictícia de acordo com as preferências dos tomadores de decisão sobre aspectos operacionais, políticos e tecnológicos.This paper presents the theoretical developments in techniques of decision-making analysis in petroleum exploration and production projects, from economic evaluation using Discount Cash Flow (DCF) up to and including a presentation of the Multi-Attribute Utility Theory (MAUT), which enables consideration of typical risks and uncertainties in international petroleum upstream investments in a new competitive situation among firms. Finally, a case study of the MAUT was developed and applied to define priorities among ten offshore exploration opportunities around the world offered to a fictitious Brazilian petroleum multinational company, according to decision-makers' preferences regarding operational, political and technological issues.

COORDENAÇÃO DE APERFEIÇOAMENTO DO PESSOAL DE ENSINO SUPERIOR Este trabalho apresenta algumas contribuições ao estudo da estimação da satisfação do consumidor. As contribuições originais são: a) uma resenha abrangente sobre os métodos de estimação da satisfação, principalmente sobre os baseados em Modelos de Equações Estruturais, categorizados em: modelos baseados em estruturas de covariâncias (MEC) e modelos baseados em mínimos quadrados parciais (MQP); b) uma análise comparativa dos métodos de estimação de escores dos modelos MEC e MQP, através da quantidade de informação dos escores estimados em relação aos verdadeiros, com base no modelo de Satisfação do Consumidor da ANEEL (IASC); c) um modelo alternativo unidimensional para o IASC baseado no modelo de Respostas Graduadas de Samejima, da Teoria da Resposta ao Item (TRI). Sobre a análise comparativa dos métodos de estimação de escores, verificou-se que o MQP estimou escores com maior precisão principalmente quando as relações do modelo foram, em módulo, mais fracas; ao contrário do MEC que se destacou quando as relações do modelo foram mais fortes. Sobre o modelo baseado na TRI, algumas vantagens foram observadas em relação aos Modelos de Equações Estruturais, principalmente no que tange à análise individual e comparativa dos itens da pesquisa. Por último, constatou-se que ambas as metodologias são relevantes para o IASC e por isso deveriam ser aplicadas em conjunto para orientar as ações dos gestores e os investimentos para a melhoria dos serviços prestados pelas distribuidoras. This work presents a study of statistical models used for estimation of the customer satisfaction. The main contributions are: a) a general description about the estimation methods of the customer satisfaction, mainly about the methods based on Structural Equation Models, grouped by: CSM (Covariance Structure Model) and PLS (Partial Least Square); b) a comparison between the estimation methods of the LISREL (Linear Structural Relations) and PLS with base on information function between the estimated scores and the true ones. The used model was the Brazilian Customer Satisfaction Index for Electric Energy (IASC) of the ANEEL (Brazilian Electricity Regulatory Agency); c) an alternative unidimentional model for the IASC based on the Samejima´s Model for Graded Response of the Item Response Theory (IRT). About the comparative analysis of the scores estimation methods, the PLS was better than LISREL if the latent variables relations were weak, in module. In opposite, LISREL was the best when the latent variables relations were stronger. However, this analysis was based on simulated data and it was necessary to consider some conditions to guarantee validity, estimation convergence and good fit of the models. About the proposed model based on IRT, many benefits were observed if compared with Structural Equation Models, mainly with regard to survey item analysis. Finally, it was observed that both methodologies are important to improve IASC methodology, so they have to be used together to guide the manager actions and the investments to improve utilities services for the customers.