Paulo Nossa, Sani Dimitroulopoulou, Liliana Freitas, Pedro Ferreira, Ana Paula Santana Rodrigues, CARLOS A BANA E COSTA, Monica Oliveira, Paulo V D Correia, João Malva, Nicolás Zengarini, Eva Pilot, Lucia Bosakova, António Manuel Alvarenga Rodrigues, Carlota Quintal, Hynek Pikhart, Ana Vieira, Joana Morrison, Claudia Costa, Merce Gotsens, Giuseppe COSTA, Teresa Cipriano Rodrigues, Ângela Freitas, Michala Lustigova, Sotiris Vardoulakis, Departamento de Geografia [Coimbra, Portugal], Centro de Estudos de Geografia e de Ordenamento do Territorio [Coimbra, Portugal] (CEGOT), Colégio de São Jerónimo - Universidade de Coimbra [Coimbra, Portugal]-Colégio de São Jerónimo - Universidade de Coimbra [Coimbra, Portugal], Universidade do Porto, Eurostat, Public Health Agency of Barcelona, Laboratoire Dynamiques Sociales et Recomposition des Espaces (LADYSS), Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne (UP1)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université Paris 8 Vincennes-Saint-Denis (UP8)-Université Paris Nanterre (UPN)-Université de Paris (UP), CIBER de Epidemiología y Salud Pública (CIBERESP), Universidade do Porto [Porto], Office Statistique des Communautés Européennes, Université Paris Diderot - Paris 7 (UPD7)-Université Paris Nanterre (UPN)-Université Paris 8 Vincennes-Saint-Denis (UP8)-Université Panthéon-Sorbonne (UP1)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université Panthéon-Sorbonne (UP1)-Université Paris 8 Vincennes-Saint-Denis (UP8)-Université Paris Nanterre (UPN)-Université Paris Diderot - Paris 7 (UPD7), Universidade do Porto = University of Porto, and Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne (UP1)-Université Paris 8 Vincennes-Saint-Denis (UP8)-Université Paris Nanterre (UPN)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université Paris Cité (UPCité)
Background: Population health measurements are recognised as appropriate tools to support public health monitoring. Yet, there is still a lack of tools that offer a basis for policy appraisal and for foreseeing impacts on health equity. In the context of persistent regional inequalities, it is critical to ascertain which regions are performing best, which factors might shape future health outcomes and where there is room for improvement. Methods: Under the EURO-HEALTHY project, tools combining the technical elements of multi-criteria value models and the social elements of participatory processes were developed to measure health in multiple dimensions and to inform policies. The flagship tool is the Population Health Index (PHI), a multidimensional measure that evaluates health from the lens of equity in health determinants and health outcomes, further divided into sub-indices. Foresight tools for policy analysis were also developed, namely: (1) scenarios of future patterns of population health in Europe in 2030, combining group elicitation with the Extreme-World method and (2) a multi-criteria evaluation framework informing policy appraisal (case study of Lisbon). Finally, a WebGIS was built to map and communicate the results to wider audiences. Results: The Population Health Index was applied to all European Union (EU) regions, indicating which regions are lagging behind and where investments are most needed to close the health gap. Three scenarios for 2030 were produced - (1) the 'Failing Europe' scenario (worst case/increasing inequalities), (2) the 'Sustainable Prosperity' scenario (best case/decreasing inequalities) and (3) the 'Being Stuck' scenario (the EU and Member States maintain the status quo). Finally, the policy appraisal exercise conducted in Lisbon illustrates which policies have higher potential to improve health and how their feasibility can change according to different scenarios. Conclusions: The article makes a theoretical and practical contribution to the field of population health. Theoretically, it contributes to the conceptualisation of health in a broader sense by advancing a model able to integrate multiple aspects of health, including health outcomes and multisectoral determinants. Empirically, the model and tools are closely tied to what is measurable when using the EU context but offering opportunities to be upscaled to other settings. The EURO-HEALTHY project (Shaping EUROpean policies to promote HEALTH equity) has received funding from the European Union’s Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme under Grant Agreement No. 643398. Additionally, this study was supported by the Centre of Studies in Geography and Spatial Planning (CEGOT), funded by national funds through the Foundation for Science and Technology (FCT) under the reference UID/GEO/04084/2019. The authors Angela Freitas and Cláudia Costa are recipients of Individual Doctoral Fellowships funded by national funds through the Foundation for Science and Technology (FCT), under the references SFRH/BD/123091/2016 and SFRH/BD/132218/2017, respectively.