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Current command and control (C2) operations are centered on addressing the root causes of state failure and instability. For success, these C2 operations require the cooperation of local populations and governments. To win this cooperation, we need to be able to predict changes in the opinions of local populations. Cultural identity is a critical factor in this process. These cultural identities are multi-layered and dynamic. In order to predict the impact of events on a population's attitude, one must remember that each person has several different identities and that some of these identities may change. Further people's attitudes change based on their contact with other individuals. When people's attitudes change, then their participation in groups changes as well. SCIPR (Simulation of Cultural Identities for Prediction of Reactions) is an agent based computer simulation that forecasts the effects of actions on peoples' opinions and cultural identities to better model the underlying forces driving attitude based conflicts. In this paper, we will describe the development of the SCIPR model and its application for current C2 operations., Presented at the AFCEA-GMU C4I Center Symposium "Critical Issues C4I" held at George Mason University, Fairfax, VA on 20-21 May 2008. Prepared in cooperation with University at Albany, State University of New York, Albany, NY. more...

Today's military missions are not against other nation-states. Rather, they are against irregular forces engaged in terrorist or insurgent activities. A large part of waging successful counter-insurgency campaigns involves reducing or eliminating local support for the insurgents by convincing people that it is in not in their interest to support or join an insurgency. The Simulation of Cultural Identities for Prediction of Reactions (SCIPR) tool is designed to help military planners answer the question: "How will a particular course of action (COA) or sequence of events affect the attitudes or actions of a particular population?" At the core of SCIPR is an agent based model where agents, in response to events, change their affiliations and their attitudes based on the principles of social identity theory (Tajfel, 1978) and Social Influence Theory (Tajfel & Turner, 1979). This paper describes the development of the SCIPR model and its use by military planners., Performed in cooperation with Project Performance Company, McLean, VA. Presented at the International Conference on Computational Cultural Dynamics (ICCCD) held in College Park, Maryland on 15-16 September 2008. more...